Cigarette Excise Tax Increase Research Articles

REAKSI PASAR MODAL ATAS KEBIJAKAN KENAIKAN CUKAI DI INDONESIA

This study aims to analyze the reaction of the capital market to the increase in cigarette excise in Indonesia. This study focuses on cigarette companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as an increase in excise tax has an impact on the cigarette industry. There are 4 companies that are included in the cigarette industry which are the samples of this study. This study uses an event study to examine the effect of Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity and Bid-Ask Spread before and after the increase in excise tax. The findings of this study are that there is no difference in abnormal returns both before and after the announcement of the policy on the increase in cigarette excise in 2020. Other findings indicate that there is no difference in trading volume activity both before and after the announcement of the policy for the increase in cigarette excise in 2020. Other findings indicate that there is no difference in bids. ask spread both before and after the announcement of the 2020 cigarette excise tax increase.
 Keywords : Abnormal Return, Trading Volume Activity, Bid-Ask Spread and Event Study

Analysis of the illicit tobacco market in Georgia in response to fiscal and non-fiscal tobacco control measures

BackgroundGeorgian illicit cigarette consumption was 1.5% in 2017. In 2018, a new tobacco control law took effect followed by a substantial cigarette excise tax increase in 2019. Research shows these...

Impact of simulated cigarette excise tax increase on its consumption in Iran.

OBJECTIVESTo assess the impact of a simulated tax-induced cigarette price increase on its consumption by different expenditure clusters in Iran.METHODSEmploying consecutive cross sections for cigarette consumption, a two-part model was applied for different expenditure groups.RESULTSA 75% price increase in cigarettes noticeably— as is common in some countries with strong tobacco control policies—reduces current consumption in all five social classes, causing nearly 8% of current male smokers to quit or not to start.CONCLUSIONSFindings of the current study suggest that Iranian policy makers go through to implement tobacco taxation policies to control smoking prevalence, which in turn might lead to a reduction in national healthcare expenditures as well as enhance the global community’s capacity to meet Sustainable Development Goals.

Cigarette Pack Prices and Sales Following Policy Changes in California, 2011-2018.

Objectives. To estimate the combined effect of California's Tobacco 21 law (enacted June 2016) and $2-per-pack cigarette excise tax increase (enacted April 2017) on cigarette prices and sales, compared with matched comparator states.Methods. We used synthetic control methods to compare cigarette prices and sales after the policies were enacted, relative to what we would have expected without the policy reforms. To estimate the counterfactual, we matched pre-reform covariate and outcome trends between California and control states to construct a "synthetic" California.Results. Compared with the synthetic control in 2018, cigarette prices in California were $1.89 higher ($7.86 vs $5.97; P < .001), and cigarette sales were 16.6% lower (19.9 vs 16.6 packs per capita; P < .001). This reduction in sales equates to 153.9 million fewer packs being sold between 2017 and 2018.Conclusions. California's new cigarette tax was largely passed on to consumers. The new cigarette tax, combined with the Tobacco 21 law, have contributed to a rapid and substantial reduction in cigarette consumption in California.

International Marketing Management: PT. Sampoerna Tbk

The announcement of the cigarette excise tax increase made on September 13, 2019 was very surprising, but Sampoerna respected the President's decision. At present, Sampoerna is working to determine how to manage the impact of the increase. While waiting for the details of the excise tax policy to be officially released, Sampoerna intends to submit two recommendations to the Government to support the continuation of employment.

A simulation impact evaluation of a cigarette excise tax increase on licit and illicit cigarette consumption and tax revenue in 36 European countries.

To assess the impact of a simulated 10% tax-induced cigarette price increase on licit and illicit consumption and tax revenues in 36 European countries. Employing panel data for licit and illicit cigarette consumption, fixed effects regression models were applied for different income clusters. Total cigarette consumption dropped by about 3.1% as a result of the simulated tax-induced price increase. Annual illicit cigarette consumption increased by 1.52%, (95% confidence interval: 0.21, 2.83), while annual licit cigarette consumption decreased by 4.61% (95% confidence interval: -6.51, -2.72) in the observed 36 European countries. With total consumption decreasing by about 8%, the Czech Republic, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia were affected the most by the price hike. More specifically, licit consumption in these countries decreased by 18.43% (95% confidence interval: -19.91, -16.95) while illicit use increased by 10.99% (95% confidence interval: 6.01, 15.96). Moreover, the overall annual tobacco tax revenue increased by US$14.69 billion in the simulation. Results of the study suggest that European policy makers continue to implement tobacco taxation policies to control smoking prevalence and national health care expenditures. At the same time, efforts to kerb contraband activities along EU Eastern borders should be intensified.

Implementation of Cigarette Excise Policy against Cigarette Consumption Reduction among Adolescent in Kuningan, Indonesia

Indonesia has the highest prevalence of smoking (50.68%) compared to other ASEAN countries. On January 1st, 2017, the Indonesian government raised cigarette excise taxes. The purpose of this study was to analysis the impact of cigarette excise increase on cigarette consumption among adolescents aged 17 to 25 years. The study design used cross-sectional survey. A total of 153 adolescents were recruited in this study through simple random sampling technique. Questionnaires and observation papers were used in this study. A face-to-face interview was conducted to fulfill the data collection through home visit for each respondent. The data were obtained during May – June 2017. This study used paired t test analysis. The number of cigarettes consumed by adolescent decreased significantly by two cigarettes per day after the increase in cigarette excise tax. There is a significant difference of the average cigarettes price based on the brand after the implementation of cigarette excise tax increase, the difference of cigarette price is IDR 200 per stick of cigarettes after excise tax increase. Increased cigarette excise taxes may affect the increasing of cigarette prices. Threfore, it could reduce the number of cigarette consumption.

Evolution of Excise (Coffee, Tobacco and Beer) over the Years. Its Impact on Consumption for the Period 2010 – 2015

This paper aims to make a brief description of the evolution of the excise group - products of coffee, cigarette and beer. An important part of the study also occupies a simple analysis that shows how consumption affects the excise in these groups - consumer products and their effects on the health of consumers. This analysis is based on data from Customs of the Republic of Albania on the imported quantity of coffee, tobacco and beer, for a period 2010 - 2015. The analysis we reach the conclusion that the reduction of the level of excise increase the amount of coffee imported as a result of higher consumption of this product. The cigarette product fluctuations in the level of excise, but in general terms we can say that the cigarette excise tax increase and consequently comes to the imported quantity is reduced. We can say that the reduction of imports have also affected other factors such as the implementation of the Anti - smoking and awareness raising of consumers for having harmful effects of consumption of this product. The same situation applies to the beer product. Reduction of excise affects directly to reduce the quantity of import of this product. Evolution of the levels of excise duty over the years, the group mainly products coffee, tobacco and alcoholic beverages (beer).

Effect of cigarette tax increase in combination with mass media campaign on smoking behaviour in Mauritius: findings from the ITC Mauritius Survey

BackgroundMauritius has made great strides in adopting evidence-based tobacco control measures, including an increase in its cigarette excise tax and antitobacco mass media (Sponge) campaign. The primary objective of this...

Per-pack price reductions available from different cigarette purchasing strategies: United States, 2009–2010

ObjectiveFollowing cigarette excise tax increases, smokers may use cigarette price minimization strategies to continue their usual cigarette consumption rather than reducing consumption or quitting. This reduces the public health benefits of the tax increase. This paper estimates the price reductions for a wide-range of strategies, compensating for overlapping strategies. MethodWe performed regression analysis on the 2009–2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey (N=13,394) to explore price reductions that smokers in the United States obtained from purchasing cigarettes. We examined five cigarette price minimization strategies: 1) purchasing discount brand cigarettes, 2) using price promotions, 3) purchasing cartons, 4) purchasing on Indian reservations, and 5) purchasing online. Price reductions from these strategies were estimated jointly to compensate for overlapping strategies. ResultsEach strategy provided price reductions between 26 and 99cents per pack. Combined price reductions were possible. Additionally, price promotions were used with regular brands to obtain larger price reductions than when price promotions were used with generic brands. ConclusionSmokers can realize large price reductions from price minimization strategies, and there are many strategies available. Policymakers and public health officials should be aware of the extent that these strategies can reduce cigarette prices.

Digital Detection for Tobacco Control: Online Reactions to the 2009 U.S. Cigarette Excise Tax Increase

Digital Detection for Tobacco Control: Online Reactions to the 2009 U.S. Cigarette Excise Tax Increase

Digital Detection for Tobacco Control: Online Reactions to the 2009 U.S. Cigarette Excise Tax Increase

The Internet is revolutionizing tobacco control, but few have harnessed the Web for surveillance. We demonstrate for the first time an approach for analyzing aggregate Internet search queries that captures precise changes in population considerations about tobacco.We compared tobacco-related Google queries originating in the United States during the week of the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) 2009 cigarette excise tax increase with a historic baseline. Specific queries were then ranked according to their relative increases while also considering approximations of changes in absolute search volume.Individual queries with the largest relative increases the week of the SCHIP tax were "cigarettes Indian reservations" 640% (95% CI, 472-918), "free cigarettes online" 557% (95% CI, 432-756), and "Indian reservations cigarettes" 542% (95% CI, 414-733), amounting to about 7,500 excess searches. By themes, the largest relative increases were tribal cigarettes 246% (95% CI, 228-265), "free" cigarettes 215% (95% CI, 191-242), and cigarette stores 176% (95% CI, 160-193), accounting for 21,000, 27,000, and 90,000 excess queries. All avoidance queries, including those aforementioned themes, relatively increased 150% (95% CI, 144-155) or 550,000 from their baseline. All cessation queries increased 46% (95% CI, 44-48), or 175,000, around SCHIP; including themes for "cold turkey" 19% (95% CI, 11-27) or 2,600, cessation products 47% (95% CI, 44-50) or 78,000, and dubious cessation approaches (e.g., hypnosis) 40% (95% CI, 33-47) or 2,300.The SCHIP tax motivated specific changes in population considerations. Our strategy can support evaluations that temporally link tobacco control measures with instantaneous population reactions, as well as serve as a springboard for traditional studies, for example, including survey questionnaire design.

Cigarette Price Minimization Strategies in the United States: Price Reductions and Responsiveness to Excise Taxes

Because cigarette price minimization strategies can provide substantial price reductions for individuals continuing their usual smoking behaviors following federal and state cigarette excise tax increases, we examined independent price reductions compensating for overlapping strategies. The possible availability of larger independent price reduction opportunities in states with higher cigarette excise taxes is explored. Regression analysis used the 2006-2007 Tobacco Use Supplement of the Current Population Survey (N = 26,826) to explore national and state-level independent price reductions that smokers obtained from purchasing cigarettes (a) by the carton, (b) in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price than in the state of residence, and (c) in "some other way," including online or in another country. Price reductions from these strategies are estimated jointly to compensate for known overlapping strategies. Each strategy reduced the price of cigarettes by 64-94 cents per pack. These price reductions are 9%-22% lower than conventionally estimated results not compensating for overlapping strategies. Price reductions vary substantially by state. Following cigarette excise tax increases, the price reduction available from purchasing cigarettes by cartons increased. Additionally, the price reduction from purchasing cigarettes in a state with a lower average after-tax cigarette price is positively associated with state cigarette excise tax rates and border state cigarette excise tax rate differentials. Findings from this large, nationally representative study of cigarette smokers suggest that price reductions are larger in states with higher cigarette excise taxes, and increase as cigarette excise taxes rise.

Maximizing the Public Health Impact of Alcohol and Tobacco Taxes

Significant increases in alcohol and tobacco taxes are among the most effective policies governments have for improving public health. Higher alcohol taxes reduce the prevalence, frequency, and intensity of drinking, 1 Wagenaar A.C. Salois M.J. Komro K.A. Effects of beverage alcohol price and tax levels on drinking: a meta-analysis of 1003 estimates from 112 studies. Addiction. 2009; 104: 179-190 Crossref PubMed Scopus (632) Google Scholar as well as the traffic crashes, liver cirrhosis, violence, and other health and social consequences of harmful drinking. 2 Wagenaar A.C. Tobler A.L. Komro K.A. Effects of alcohol tax and price policies on morbidity and mortality: a systematic review. Am J Public Health. 2010; 100: 2270-2278 Crossref PubMed Scopus (313) Google Scholar Likewise, increases in tobacco taxes promote cessation among adult users, prevent young people from taking up tobacco use, and reduce the death, disease, and economic consequences caused by tobacco. 3 International Agency for Research on CancerIARC handbooks of cancer prevention, tobacco control, Volume 14: the effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control. IARC, Lyon, France2011 Google Scholar At the same time, increased taxes raise new revenues that can be used to support alcohol- and tobacco-control programs and other health promotion efforts, adding to their positive public health impact. 3 International Agency for Research on CancerIARC handbooks of cancer prevention, tobacco control, Volume 14: the effectiveness of tax and price policies for tobacco control. IARC, Lyon, France2011 Google Scholar , 4 Daley J.I. Stahre M.A. Chaloupka F.J. Naimi T.S. The impact of a 25-cent-per-drink alcohol tax increase. Am J Prev Med. 2012; 42: 382-389 Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (25) Google Scholar However, governments in the U.S. and elsewhere often fail to maximize the public health benefits of alcohol and tobacco taxes, while drinkers, smokers, and other tobacco users use various strategies to avoid these taxes. The papers by Kerr and colleagues 5 Kerr W.C. Paterson D. Greenfield T.K. et al. U.S. alcohol affordability and real tax rates, 1950–2011. Am J Prev Med. 2013; 44: 459-464 Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (28) Google Scholar and Xu and colleagues 6 Xu X. Pesko M.F. Tynan M.A. Gerzoff R.B. Malarcher A.M. Pechacek T.F. Cigarette price-minimization strategies by U.S. Smokers. Am J Prev Med. 2013; 44: 472-476 Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (45) Google Scholar in this issue illustrate these problems. U.S. Alcohol Affordability and Real Tax Rates, 1950–2011American Journal of Preventive MedicineVol. 44Issue 5PreviewThe affordability of alcoholic beverages, determined by the relationship of prices to incomes, may be an important factor in relation to heavy drinking, but little is known about how affordability has changed over time. Full-Text PDF Cigarette Price-Minimization Strategies by U.S. SmokersAmerican Journal of Preventive MedicineVol. 44Issue 5PreviewSmokers may react to cigarette excise tax increases by engaging in price-minimization strategies (i.e., finding ways to reduce the cost of cigarette smoking) rather than by quitting or reducing their cigarette use, thereby reducing the public health benefits of such tax increases. Full-Text PDF

The Impact of Cigarette Excise Tax Increases on Purchasing Behaviors Among New York City Smokers

We examined the relationship between cigarette excise tax increases and tax-avoidant purchasing behaviors among New York City adult smokers. We analyzed data from the city's annual Community Health Survey to assess changes in rates of tax avoidance over time (2003-2010) and smokers' responses to the 2008 state cigarette tax increase. Multivariable logistic regression analysis identified correlates of buying more cigarettes on the street in response to the increase. After the 2002 tax increase, the percentage of smokers engaged in tax-avoidant behavior decreased with time from 30% in 2003 to 13% in 2007. Following the 2008 tax increase, 21% of smokers reported buying more cigarettes from another person on the street. Low-income, younger, Black, and Hispanic smokers were more likely than respondents with other sociodemographic characteristics to purchase more cigarettes on the street. To maximize public health impact, cigarette tax increases should be paired with efforts to limit the flow of untaxed cigarettes entering jurisdictions with high cigarette pack prices.

Cigarette price-minimization strategies by U.S. smokers.

Smokers may react to cigarette excise tax increases by engaging in price-minimization strategies (i.e., finding ways to reduce the cost of cigarette smoking) rather than by quitting or reducing their cigarette use, thereby reducing the public health benefits of such tax increases. To evaluate the state and national prevalence of five common cigarette price-minimization strategies and the size of price reductions obtained from these strategies. Using data from the 2009-2010 National Adult Tobacco Survey, the prevalence of five common price-minimization strategies by type of strategy and by smoker's cigarette consumption level were estimated. The price reductions associated with these price-minimization strategies also were evaluated. Analyses took place in November 2012. Approximately 55.4% of U.S. adult smokers used at least one of five price-minimization strategies in the previous year, with an average reduction of $1.27 per pack (22.0%). Results varied widely by state. Cigarette price-minimization strategies are practiced widely among current smokers, and resulting price reductions are relatively large. Policies that decrease opportunities to effectively apply cigarette price-minimization strategies would increase the public health gains of cigarette excise tax increases.

The recent and projected public health and economic benefits of cigarette taxation in Greece

ObjectivesGreece is in an economic crisis compounded by the costs caused by smoking. The present investigation estimates the economic and public health benefits ensuing from the recent cigarette excise tax...

Using search query surveillance to monitor tax avoidance and smoking cessation following the United States' 2009 "SCHIP" cigarette tax increase.

Smokers can use the web to continue or quit their habit. Online vendors sell reduced or tax-free cigarettes lowering smoking costs, while health advocates use the web to promote cessation. We examined how smokers' tax avoidance and smoking cessation Internet search queries were motivated by the United States' (US) 2009 State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) federal cigarette excise tax increase and two other state specific tax increases. Google keyword searches among residents in a taxed geography (US or US state) were compared to an untaxed geography (Canada) for two years around each tax increase. Search data were normalized to a relative search volume (RSV) scale, where the highest search proportion was labeled 100 with lesser proportions scaled by how they relatively compared to the highest proportion. Changes in RSV were estimated by comparing means during and after the tax increase to means before the tax increase, across taxed and untaxed geographies. The SCHIP tax was associated with an 11.8% (95% confidence interval [95%CI], 5.7 to 17.9; p<.001) immediate increase in cessation searches; however, searches quickly abated and approximated differences from pre-tax levels in Canada during the months after the tax. Tax avoidance searches increased 27.9% (95%CI, 15.9 to 39.9; p<.001) and 5.3% (95%CI, 3.6 to 7.1; p<.001) during and in the months after the tax compared to Canada, respectively, suggesting avoidance is the more pronounced and durable response. Trends were similar for state-specific tax increases but suggest strong interactive processes across taxes. When the SCHIP tax followed Florida's tax, versus not, it promoted more cessation and avoidance searches. Efforts to combat tax avoidance and increase cessation may be enhanced by using interventions targeted and tailored to smokers' searches. Search query surveillance is a valuable real-time, free and public method, that may be generalized to other behavioral, biological, informational or psychological outcomes manifested online.

Blowing Smoke and Billowing Logic: Consulting on Cigarette Excise Tax Increase Messages

This article describes a consulting project with an advocacy organization to raise cigarette excise taxes in Kentucky and to improve public health in the state. We describe the theoretical underpinnings of the project, the client, and our consultation process, objectives, products, and results.

Mobilising public opinion for the tobacco industry: the consumer tax alliance and excise taxes

Background:Tobacco industry funding was instrumental in creating and financing the Consumer Tax Alliance in 1989 as an organisation that relied upon extensive media outreach to build opposition to excise taxes...