BackgroundMajor depressive disorder (MDD) exhibits a recurrence rate of up to 70%. Frequent recurrence can lead to chronic depression, which has considerable personal and societal consequences. This study aims to identify a serum protein biomarker to predict MDD recurrence and progression to chronicity.MethodsSerum samples from the MDD with single episode group (MDD-S), MDD with recurrence group (MDD-R), and a healthy control group were collected. Non-targeted analysis of the serum proteome was conducted using liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. Statistically significant common proteins when comparing the three groups were chosen. The selected marker candidates were subsequently validated through multiple response monitoring (MRM), incorporating a healthy control, MDD-S, MDD-R(2) (two episodes), and MDD-R(> 2) (more than two episodes) groups.ResultsL-selectin levels showed an upward trend in the MDD-R group compared to the healthy control and MDD-S groups. MRM validation revealed a decreased tendency for L-selectin in the MDD-R(> 2) group, indicative of a chronic state, versus the healthy control and MDD-S groups. The receiver operating characteristic analysis highlighted L-selectin as the chosen biomarker due to its classification efficacy for the MDD-R(> 2) group.ConclusionL-selectin emerged as a predictive biomarker for MDD recurrence and its potential evolution into chronic depression. This marker offers insights into changes in leukocyte-mediated inflammatory responses characteristic of chronic depression. Consequently, it may forecast the transition from acute to chronic inflammation in depressive patients.