Inconsistency In Choice Research Articles

Pre-acquired Functional Connectivity Predicts Choice Inconsistency.

Economic choice theories usually assume that humans maximize utility in their choices. However, studies have shown that humans make inconsistent choices, leading to suboptimal behavior, even without context-dependent manipulations. Previous studies showed that activation in value and motor networks are associated with inconsistent choices at the moment of choice. Here, we investigated if the neural predispositions, measured before a choice task, can predict choice inconsistency in a later risky choice task. Using functional connectivity (FC) measures from resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rsfMRI), derived before any choice was made, we aimed to predict subjects' inconsistency levels in a later-performed choice task. We hypothesized that rsfMRI FC measures extracted from value and motor brain areas would predict inconsistency. Forty subjects (21 females) completed a rsfMRI scan before performing a risky choice task. We compared models that were trained on FC that included only hypothesized value and motor regions with models trained on whole-brain FC. We found that both model types significantly predicted inconsistency levels. Moreover, even the whole-brain models relied mostly on FC between value and motor areas. For external validation, we used a neural network pretrained on FC matrices of 37,000 subjects and fine-tuned it on our data and again showed significant predictions. Together, this shows that the tendency for choice inconsistency is predicted by predispositions of the nervous system and that synchrony between the motor and value networks plays a crucial role in this tendency.

Decisions Under Uncertainty as Bayesian Inference on Choice Options

Standard models of decision making under risk and uncertainty are deterministic. Inconsistencies in choices are accommodated by separate error models. The combination of decision model and error model, however, is arbitrary. Here, I derive a model of decision making under uncertainty in which choice options are mentally encoded by noisy signals, which are optimally decoded by Bayesian combination with preexisting information. The model predicts diminishing sensitivity toward both likelihoods and rewards, thus providing cognitive microfoundations for the patterns documented in the prospect theory literature. The model is, however, inherently stochastic, so that choices and noise are determined by the same underlying parameters. This results in several novel predictions, which I test on one existing data set and in two new experiments. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, behavioral economics and decision analysis. Funding: The author gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Research Foundation—Flanders (FWO) under the project “Causal Determinants of Preferences” [Grant G008021N] and the special research fund (BOF) at Ghent University under the project “The role of noise in the determination of risk preferences.” Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.00265 .

The impact of lay elitism on preference and choice inconsistency in consumption across cultures

AbstractThe present study examined the influence of lay elitism on preference and choice inconsistency in consumer choices across cultures. Four studies were conducted to understand this phenomenon. In Study 1, we showed that Mainland Chinese high in the belief in lay elitism displays more preference and choice inconsistency across product categories. In Study 2, we found the reverse effect for Caucasian Americans. In Study 3, Mainland Chinese belief in lay elitism is associated with their preference and choice inconsistency over geometric patterns and, at the same time, increased the consistency between their choice and the anticipated elites' choice of these geometric patterns. Lastly, Study 4 showed that in a cross‐cultural study, Mainland Chinese participants' endorsement of lay elitism is associated with a higher level of preference and choice inconsistency, but the reverse pattern is observed for Caucasian Americans. Furthermore, cultural values (i.e., individualism and collectivism) fail to explain the differences in preference and choice consistency across cultures. The paper offers a new perspective in using lay elitism across cultures to understand preference and choice inconsistency in consumer behavior.

Time inconsistency in sustainable partner selection for vertical collaborative network organizations

AbstractCollaborative Networked Organisations (CNOs) are increasingly recognised for their ability to harness cooperation and complementary competencies, outperforming individual efforts in pursuing business opportunities. However, the criticality of selecting the right long‐term partner for a CNO has been understated, especially considering the evolving landscape of sustainability perceptions. This research addresses the issue of time inconsistency within the context of sustainable CNO partner selection by employing the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchical Process with the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. Time inconsistency refers to a situation where preferences or decisions change over different points in time, leading to inconsistencies in choices or actions. Specifically, the study focuses on a Swiss Manufacturing CNO, examining how the evaluation of potential partners' environmental criteria changes over time. The findings reveal the presence of time inconsistency in environmental criterion evaluation between two time periods. This inconsistency stems from the evolving perception of environmental conditions and the increasing social and governmental pressures surrounding environmental standards. As a consequence, improper partner choices in CNOs can be made, potentially undermining the collaborative's overall sustainability goals. The study sheds light on the importance of considering dynamic sustainability factors in partner selection for CNOs, emphasising the need for a more comprehensive and adaptive approach to secure fruitful and lasting collaborations.

Measures of cognitive ability and choice inconsistency

Cognitive skills affect individual choices. Researchers commonly use Raven's Progressive Matrices (RPM) tests and the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT) to assess the relationship between cognitive abilities and economic decision making. In this paper, we study the relationship between these measures, and investigate the extent to which they are correlated and whether they are best described as substitutes or complements. Combining a sample of 686 children and a sample of 2,332 adults, we compare individual performances in the RPM test and CRT test. First, we report a significant positive correlation between the two measures of 0.3. Second, we document that performance in both the RPM test and CRT are significant predictors of behavioral inconsistency observed in incentivized time and risk preference elicitation tasks for children and risk preference elicitation task for adults.

Analysis of aggregation between the components of financial literacy through inconsistency in intertemporal choices

Analysis of aggregation between the components of financial literacy through inconsistency in intertemporal choices

Livestream e-commerce in a platform supply chain: A product-fit uncertainty reduction perspective

Livestream e-commerce involves broadcasters introducing, demonstrating, and selling goods while interacting with online audiences in real time via digital devices. In recent years, the livestream e-commerce industry has witnessed explosive growth. This paper establishes a stylised model of the livestream e-commerce supply chain and incorporates a salient feature of livestream selling, i.e., the livestream enables a reduction of the product-fit uncertainty for consumers. We obtain the optimal pricing decision for the seller and characterise the supply chain firms' profits when the platform's commission rate is exogenous. Two crucial parameters are identified in this scenario, i.e., the consumers' hassle cost to watch livestream and the seller's effective procurement cost. It is found that both the seller and platform prefer adopting livestream when the consumer's hassle cost is low and the effective procurement cost is high, and the seller has a stronger tendency to adopt livestream than the platform. We also investigate the problem under the endogenous platform's commission rate, revealing that the platform's optimal commission rate with livestreams should be higher than that without livestreams unless the consumer's hassle cost is considerably large and the seller's procurement cost is considerably small. Another result different from the scenario of the exogenous platform's commission rate is that a selling mode choice inconsistency occurs when the product's procurement cost and consumer's hassle cost are both very low, in which case, the platform prefers the seller to use livestream selling, whereas the seller prefers not to do so.

In vitro fertilization: a cross-sectional analysis of 58 US insurance companies.

Infertility affects one in eight women in the USA. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is an effective but costly treatment that lacks uniform insurance coverage. We evaluated the current insurance coverage landscape for IVF in America. We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 58 insurance companies with the greatest state enrollment and market share, calculated to represent the majority of Americans with health insurance. Individual companies were evaluated for a publicly available policy on IVF services by web-based search, telephone interview, or email to the insurer. Coverage status, required criteria, qualifying risk factors, and contraindications to coverage were extracted from available policies. Fifty-one (88%) of the fifty-eight companies had a policy for IVF services. Thirty-five (69%) of these policies extended coverage. Case-by-case coverage was stated in seven policies (14%), while coverage was denied in the remaining nine (18%). The most common criterion to receive coverage was a documented diagnosis of infertility (n = 23, 66%), followed by care from a reproductive endocrinologist (n = 9, 26%). Twenty-three (45%) of the companies with a policy had at least one contraindication to coverage. Three companies (6%) limited the number of IVF cycles to be covered, capping payments after 3-4 lifetime cycles. Most Americans with health insurance are provided a public policy regarding IVF. However, there is great variation in coverage and requirements to receive coverage between insurers. Coupled with inconsistencies in state-level mandates and available choices for employer-sponsored plans, this may limit coverage of IVF services and, therefore, access to infertility treatment.

A behavioral approach to inconsistencies in intertemporal choices with the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology

A behavioral approach to inconsistencies in intertemporal choices with the Analytic Hierarchy Process methodology

When Less is More: Improving Choices in Health Insurance Markets

Abstract We study the impact of changing choice set size on the quality of choices in health insurance markets. Using novel data on enrolment and medical claims for school district employees in the state of Oregon, we document that the average employee could save $600 by switching to a lower cost plan. Structural modelling reveals large “choice inconsistencies” such as non-equalization of the dollar spent on premiums and out of pocket, and a novel form of “approximate inertia” where enrolees are excessively likely to switch to other plans that are close to the current plan on the plan design spreadsheet. Variation in the number of plan choices across districts and over time shows that enrolees make lower-cost choices when the choice set is smaller. We show that a curated restriction of choice set size improves choices more than the best available information intervention, partly because approximate inertia lowers gains from new information. We explicitly test and reject the assumption that this is because individuals choose worse from larger choice sets, or “choice overload”. Rather, we show that this feature arises from the fact that larger choice sets feature worse choices on average that are not offset by individual re-optimization.

Intracerebral mechanisms explaining the impact of incidental feedback on mood state and risky choice.

Identifying factors whose fluctuations are associated with choice inconsistency is a major issue for rational decision theory. Here, we investigated the neuro-computational mechanisms through which mood fluctuations may bias human choice behavior. Intracerebral EEG data were collected in a large group of subjects (n=30) while they were performing interleaved quiz and choice tasks that were designed to examine how a series of unrelated feedbacks affect decisions between safe and risky options. Neural baseline activity preceding choice onset was confronted first to mood level, estimated by a computational model integrating the feedbacks received in the quiz task, and then to the weighting of option attributes, in a computational model predicting risk attitude in the choice task. Results showed that (1) elevated broadband gamma activity (BGA) in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsal anterior insula (daIns) was respectively signaling periods of high and low mood, (2) increased vmPFC and daIns BGA respectively promoted and tempered risk taking by overweighting gain vs. loss prospects. Thus, incidental feedbacks induce brain states that correspond to different moods and bias the evaluation of risky options. More generally, these findings might explain why people experiencing positive (or negative) outcome in some part of their life tend to expect success (or failure) in any other.

Identify Lao farmers' goals and their ranking using best–worst scaling experiment and scale‐adjusted latent class models

AbstractIn order to better design more sustainable farming systems, and prepare for the development of multi‐criteria farm decision model, we investigate how farmers rank their main goals when making decisions. First, we identified the main goals used by farmers through in‐depth interviews with randomly selected farmers in which we used small games to elicit the main goals they are using to make farm‐level decisions. Then, we developed a best–worst scaling (BWS) experiment, in which farmers have to declare the “most” and the least “important” goals they use when making decisions. The experiment was conducted with 120 farmers. We first derive a ranking of the goals according to the population average, which showed the importance of rice self‐sufficiency and transmission of farm capital. We then use a scale‐adjusted latent class analysis. We identified four groups of homogenous preferences among farmers. The use of differentiated scale, a measure of choice inconsistencies, suggested different levels of certainty about the ranking, and the presence of more inconsistencies when asking the least important goal. While a large group focuses only on rice self‐sufficiency, and farm transmission, we also identified a group of optimizers, and risk‐averse farmers. Farmers of each group are likely to behave differently with regard to sustainable innovations. We also showed that some socio‐economic variables describing the farms and the households influenced the probabilities for farmers to belong to one of the four classes. Overall, we showed that BWS scaling experiments provide a rich set of information about the diversity of rankings. It also provides the set of tools to evaluate the consistency and quality of respondents' choices.

The relative performance of ex‐ante and ex‐post measures to mitigate hypothetical and strategic bias in a stated preference study

AbstractBias related to the hypothetical setting remains controversial regarding the reliability and validity of value estimates from discrete choice experiments (DCEs). This has motivated a large body of literature to investigate approaches for mitigating hypothetical and strategic bias. Our study provides further evidence to inform this debate by testing whether a combination of ex‐ante or ex‐post mitigation strategies might be effective in reducing bias in DCEs. Specifically, we employ individual and multiple ex‐ante reminders alongside an ex‐post data treatment and analyse how their individual or joint use affects willingness to pay (WTP) estimates. The econometric analysis makes use of innovative semi‐parametric logit‐mixed logit in addition to the state‐of‐the‐art mixed logit model. The empirical case study focuses on preferences for the environmental and social impacts of organic olive production. By comparing the three experimental treatments with a control treatment, we test whether ex‐ante cheap talk, a reminder of the project's relative spatial extent, or a combination of both affect stated WTP. In addition, we use an ex‐post data treatment to correct WTP estimates. WTP estimates of treatments related to ex‐ante mitigation strategies did not differ significantly from those obtained from a control treatment with standard budget constraint reminders. However, the ex‐post approach results in a significant reduction in mean WTP estimates and is used to investigate whether the observed choice inconsistencies are due to unintentional errors or strategic behaviour. We argue that ex‐post mechanisms deserve greater attention and highlight the need to distinguish strategic behaviour from other sources of hypothetical bias.

Pidgin and Creole in Advertising and Marketing

The title of this paper is ‘Pidgin and Creole in advertising and marketing’ in Nigeria. The data for analyses was elicited through recording, transcribing, and translating. The focus of this study is the inconsistencies in spellings and choice of words, which leads to frustration and ambiguities as observed by the target audience in the adverts. Considering the serious nature of the messages they intend to pass across and the cost incurred in designing and airing the adverts, one is worried why a little bit of imagination, creativity and seriousness is not applied in the crafting of the advertisements. We are aware that standard pidgin orthography exists which conforms to the principle of good orthography; organizations and individuals seeking to develop adverts or broadcast in pidgin should consult this document for consistency. Nigerian Pidgin English is already an unauthorized lingua franca; therefore, all efforts should be on the deck to standardize it. We have presented some adverts done in pidgin, analysed them to evince their inadequacies, ambiguities, conflicting messages, poor effects, and argue that although many people are often easily carried along with adverts in pidgin, the message is essentially lost ab initio. Pidgin and creole can only be used nationally, meaning they cannot communicate internationally, or even with neighbouring countries. For this reason, adverts cannot be done in pidgin and creole with the intention of getting international patronage. They are often viewed as low class, grammatically incorrect, and with no well-structured syntax or phonology, so adverts done in pidgin and creole are often selective. Hence, if the customers are those from the upper class, an advert in pidgin or creole is a wrong move.

Dynamic Inconsistency in Choice and Different Models of Dynamic Choice – A Review

Dynamic Inconsistency in Choice and Different Models of Dynamic Choice – A Review

Effectiveness of Total Quality Management on Organisational Performance: Case Study of Printing Press in Kumasi, Ashanti Region, Ghana

Anecdotal evidence suggests that low quality images, spelling mistakes, poor leading, poor choice of typography, inconsistency in colour profiling and incorrect choice of file formats have resulted in poor output of printed works in the print firms in Kumasi. The study was to evaluate the effectiveness of Total Quality Management in the Ghanaian printing press. The descriptive survey approach was used to describe the total quality management on organisational performance on printing firms in Kumasi, Ghana. Primarily, data was gathered from 15 management personnel and 135 workers. A total of 150 respondents answered questions through self-administered questionnaire. The results showed that people’s involvement or employees’ participation in quality practices is management’s responsibility which is the centre of attention. Also, effectiveness of Total Quality Management includes three components, namely management focus, employee focus and customer focus and these must not be practiced in isolation. The study recommended expediency on the part of management to train employees to be empowered to perform even in the absence of top management.

Influence of memory processes on choice-consistency.

Choice-consistency is considered a hallmark of rational value-based choice. However, because the cognitive apparatus supporting decision-making is imperfect, real decision-makers often show some degree of choice inconsistency. Cognitive models are necessary to complement idealized choice axioms with attention, perception and memory processes. Specifically, compelling theoretical work suggests that the (imperfect) retention of choice-relevant memories might be important for choice-consistency, but this hypothesis has not been tested directly. We used a novel multi-attribute visual choice paradigm to experimentally test the influence of memory retrieval of exemplars on choice-consistency. Our manipulation check confirmed that our retention interval manipulation successfully reduced memory representation strength. Given this, we found strong evidence against our hypothesis that choice-consistency decreases with increasing retention time. However, quality controls indicated that the choice-consistency of our participants was non-discernable from random behaviour. In addition, an exploratory analysis showed essentially no test–retest reliability of choice-consistency between two observations. Taken together, this suggests the presence of a floor effect in our data and, thus, low data quality for conclusively evaluating our hypotheses. Further exploration tentatively suggested a high difficulty of discriminating between the choice objects driving this floor effect.

A survey of current practice in reporting third trimester fetal biometry and Doppler in Australia and New Zealand.

Inconsistent reporting practices in third trimester ultrasound, the choice of reference charts in particular, have the potential to misdiagnose abnormal fetal growth. But this may lead to unnecessary anxiety and confusion amongst patients and clinicians and ultimately influence clinical management. Therefore, we sought to determine the extent of variability in choice of fetal biometry and Doppler reference charts and reporting practices in Australia and New Zealand. Clinicians performing and/or reporting obstetric ultrasound were invited to answer questions about fetal biometry and Doppler charts in a web-based survey. At least four population-based charts are in current use. The majority of respondents (78%) report the percentile for known gestational age (GA) alongside measurements and 63% using a cut-off of estimated fetal weight (EFW) < 10th percentile when reporting small for gestational age (SGA) and/or fetal growth restriction (FGR). The thresholds for the use of fetal and maternal Doppler in third trimester ultrasound varied in terms of the GA, EFW cut-off, and how measures were reported. The majority of respondents were not sure of which Doppler charts were used in their practice. This survey revealed inconsistencies in choice of reference chart and reporting practices. The potential for misdiagnosis of abnormal fetal growth remains a significant issue.

(Dis)satisfied with your choices? How to align online consumer’s self-awareness, time pressure and self-consciousness

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, this study applies social presence theory to explore the influences of public self-awareness on consumers’ choice inconsistency and post-choice satisfaction. Second, the authors investigate how time pressure moderates the effects of self-awareness on choice inconsistency and post-choice satisfaction so that online sellers can better align their marketing strategies. Design/methodology/approach This research consists of two studies. Study 1 conducted a 3 (self-awareness: public/private/control) × 2 (time pressure: high/none) experiment, and 311 online participants were recruited to explore the influence of public self-awareness and time pressure. Study 2 used a 3 (self-awareness: public/private/control) × 2 (time pressure: high/no) × 2 (self-consciousness: high/low) quasi-experiments, and the authors used 652 online participants to examine the effect of self-awareness, time pressure and public self-consciousness on choice inconsistency and post-choice satisfaction. Findings The results indicate that publicly self-aware consumers under high time pressure show greater inconsistency than those under no time pressure. Also, people with higher public self-consciousness exhibited higher choice inconsistency and post-choice satisfaction in public self-awareness situations than those in private self-awareness and control conditions. Research limitations/implications To generalize the results, this study should be replicated using more heterogeneous populations in diverse regions and cultures, as well as other product categories. Practical implications This study explores the implications of evoking self-awareness during online consumption and the online purchase process by observing the moderating effect of self-consciousness and time pressure. The findings provide insights to marketing practitioners who seek to increase their companies’ competitive advantage and profits through effective online manipulations of consumers’ self-awareness. Originality/value Extant research does not address how time pressure affects the relationships among public self-awareness, choice inconsistency and post-choice satisfaction. In addition, prior research only focused on public self-awareness in customer consumption. This study bridges these gaps and has implications for e-commerce, consumer behavior and relationship marketing research fields.

Theorizing inconsistent media selection in the digital environment

Choice inconsistency has long been studied in behavioral economics. In this article we critically review theories of media choice, showing that they have not explicitly dealt with this phenomenon. Although digitalization has recently made it more salient, the communication literature on inconsistent choice still remains highly fragmented. We draw on behavioral economics literature to address blind spots in our theorization of inconsistent media selection.