Vote Choice Research Articles

Keeping up with the Joneses? Perceptions of mobility and opportunity within local knowledge economies across Germany

Abstract Recent work on the rise of the knowledge economy has identified the importance of economic context in shaping individual perceptions and preferences. Combining novel survey and locally fine-grained data for the case of Germany, we analyze the association between local knowledge economies and individual perceptions of social mobility and economic opportunity. We find that individual perceptions of mobility, access to affordable housing, and employment security are negatively associated with thriving local knowledge economies. This finding is partly at odds with accounts of ‘aspirational voters’ being the beneficiaries of local economic growth. Rather, we interpret our findings as supporting the ‘status anxiety’ hypothesis, which attributes negative mobility perceptions with competition for scarce economic and social resources. In time, these perceptions can become fertile ground for the development of populist attitudes and vote choices.

Constituency Service and Valence Voting in Semi-Competitive Elections: Theory and Evidence From China

While extensive research has delved into various factors shaping vote choice in democratic elections, few have investigated vote choice in the semi-competitive elections, where the ruling party typically secures unequivocal victory. But the noteworthy phenomenon of independent candidates winning votes and even seats in these elections at the local level suggests that vote choice in autocracies merits scholarly attention. This study examines China’s local congressional elections using a mixed-methods research design that integrates case studies and a conjoint experiment. We find evidence in support of valence voting: long-term constituency service increases vote share by strengthening popular preference and reducing electoral repression and manipulation faced by independent candidates. Our finding suggests that constituency service is an effective strategy of persuading and mobilizing voters in semi-competitive elections, shedding light on a nuanced relationship between incumbents and challengers in weakly institutionalized regimes.

Limits of Criminalization of False News AsCriminal Acts in Elections

The serious danger of election hoaxes is when the hoax is conveyed to the public who are very apathetic or in people who do not trust the current government, and distributed massively ahead of voting day. It is at this stage that hoaxes can intervene free choice of voters who have greater autonomy."The aim of this research is to analyze the basis and limits of criminalization of the act of fabricating and spreading hoaxes election. The focus of this research is on the act of fabricating and disseminating hoaxes part of election crimes. This research is document research using statutory approach and case approach. The results of this research show that the basis The criminalization of the act of fabricating and spreading election hoaxes is not because it exists lies but there are attempts to disrupt the democratic process and there is danger or loss remote harm in the form of a threat to national security. The act of manufacturing and spreading election hoaxes is part of the black campaign. Limitation Criminalization can be carried out if there is a clear and present danger and there is a mistake serious, intentional, from the perpetrator. However, there are difficulties in criminalizing it the act of fabricating and spreading election hoaxes. As part of a black campaign campaign) then the criminal act is formulated as an offense propria and the time of committing the criminal act limited to the campaign period only. The recommendation for this research is the use of facilities other than criminal law must be put forward. There needs to be regulation in the field of administrative law regarding election hoaxes both in election law and information law and electronic transactions.

Social contextual effects, gender, and Brexit: how political discussion networks are gendered and the consequences for referendum vote choice

ABSTRACT In the UK, despite continuing, if ever-changing, patterns of social, economic, and political inequality between men and women, gender differences in vote choice have emerged slowly and are present only in younger generations [Campbell, R., and R. Shorrocks. 2021. “Finally Rising with the Tide? Gender and the Vote in the 2019 British Elections.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 31 (4): 488–507. https://doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2021.1968412]; at the 2016 referendum only men and women aged 18–24 showed a gender gap [Fowler, C. 2023. “Gender-age Gaps in Euroscepticism and Vote Choice at the United Kingdom’s 2016 Referendum on EU Membership.” The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 13691481221110764]. This paper proposes that this lack of a gender gap is, in fact, one of the most important unexplained features of the referendum and subsequent elections and offers social contextual effects as a possible explanation for why. This paper examines such social contextual effects by using British Election Study Internet Panel data to investigate differences in men’s and women’s reported networks of political discussants and how having different types of political discussant (by party identification and by relationship type) was associated with Brexit vote choice. It shows that political discussant networks do vary by gender and generation in a way which could help us to understand gender-generation gaps in the UK and that, even with substantial controls for a person’s characteristics, values, and attitudes, individuals with a Eurosceptic/Europhile political discussant were correspondingly more likely to be a Leave/Remain supporter.

The Extraordinary Effect of Religious Sect Endorsements on Vote Choice: Evidence From Iglesia ni Cristo’s “Vote as One” Teaching

Sects and strict denominations are growing more rapidly and retaining members better than mainstream religions. To what extent do they influence vote choice? I investigate whether the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), a religious sect in the Philippines, can compel all members to “vote as one” and support a full ticket of endorsed candidates. Using a triple difference identification strategy, I show that the municipal-level vote-shares of INC-endorsed national candidates are unit elastic with respect to the share of INC voters across municipalities. Conventional low-information rationality models of voting cannot fully explain this. But augmented with social voting in which actions of other group members inform the objective function of voters, a voting model with religious sect endorsements can produce extremely large behavioral responses. These findings have implications on policy as well as on our understanding of strict religions’ influence on politics.

The Icelandic presidential election of 2024: strategic voting in a second order election?

Icelandic presidential elections are under-studied in the field of political science. We examine the determinants of vote choice in the 2024 Icelandic presidential election and, in particular, whether the election can be characterised as a second- order election, where voters’ views about parliamentary politics are more important than their views on the presidency. We rely on data from four surveys focusing on various aspects of the 2024 election to investigate which factors were the most important drivers of vote choice, whether voters voted strategically against the candidate most associated with the incumbent government, and whether the election results might have been different under alternative voting systems. Our findings suggest that attitudes towards the national government were the strongest determinants of vote choice in the election and that strategic voting appears to have played an important role in shaping the outcome. However, views about the role of the president also played a role and the eventual winner, Halla Tómasdóttir, would likely have won under any of the voting systems considered. We conclude with a discussion of how our results affect interpretations of the Icelandic presidency and the presidential mandate.

Values in the Valence Election: Fragmentation and the 2024 General Election

AbstractThe 2024 general election delivered a verdict on an unpopular Conservative government, a valence election where the key motivation was to remove a government seen as failing. But this is not a full account of the voting choices of the British public. The rise of ‘second dimension’ politics and the associated value positions within the public have driven a fragmentation of the electorate. This, combined with multiparty competition, leads to complex patterns of party support across the electorate. This fragmentation explains the volatility in recent elections and the relative success of ‘third’ parties and independent candidates. It explains why, in a valence election, there was not a simple transfer of votes between alternative governing parties. This fragmentation poses electoral and policy challenges for all political parties and will have important implications for British politics over the next parliamentary cycle and beyond.

The Activation of Anti-Asian Attitudes on Vote Choice

AbstractPolitical science research has assessed how racial attitudes influence political behavior. However, less is known about the political effects of anti-Asian views, even as anti-Asian sentiment resurfaced during the pandemic. We theorize that the linkage of COVID-19 to Asian Americans by political elites activated anti-Asian animosity and shaped vote choice during the 2020 election. Using cross-sectional over time and panel data from the American National Election Studies, we find that holding more anti-Asian attitudes was not associated with Republican vote choice between 2008–2016, including when Donald Trump first ran. However, anti-Asian views became strongly related to voting for Trump in 2020. Further panel analysis demonstrates evidence that anti-Asian views measured prior in 2016 increased the likelihood of vote switching to the Republican Party in 2020. We conclude by discussing the potentially persisting political effects of anti-Asian attitudes in an environment continuously characterized by anti-Asian hate and especially during future election cycles that may feature increasingly diverse candidates of Asian heritage, running for elective office across various levels of government—including for the presidency. This study contributes to research on how and when racial attitudes influence political behavior and suggests, again, the centrality of race and ethnicity in American Politics.

The dual process of prejudice: racism, nationalism, and sexism in the 2020 U.S. presidential election

IntroductionModern racism, nationalism, and sexism have been proposed as major influences on contemporary U.S. politics. However, most work has not examined these interrelated factors together. Thus, it is unclear to what extent each form of prejudice uniquely contributes to political behavior. Furthermore, the potential motivations underlying the link between prejudice and politics have not been well elucidated. We sought to (1) determine the extent to which racism, sexism, and nationalism were uniquely associated with political outcomes in the 2020 U.S. presidential election and (2) use the dual-process motivational model to examine whether social dominance orientation (SDO) and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA) were potential motivations underlying the link between prejudice and political attitudes and behavior.MethodsA national sample of U.S. adults (N = 531) completed online questionnaires before and after the 2020 U.S. election. Structural equation modeling was used to test mediational models in which SDO and RWA prospectively predicted presidential candidate evaluations and vote choice indirectly through racism, sexism, and nationalism.ResultsWhen examined in conjunction, modern racism (not sexism or nationalism) was consistently associated with evaluations of both candidates and vote choice. Furthermore, SDO and RWA both exerted indirect effects on candidate evaluations and vote choice through modern racism.DiscussionThese results are aligned with previous findings indicating that racism plays a unique role in U.S. politics and may be motivated by status threat experienced by some majority group members.

The Politics of Social Welfare: The BJP and the Discerning Voter

Voting studies tell us that voters reward incumbents who take care of the economic self-interest of voters. However, is the relationship between services and votes simple and straightforward? Are there conditions when welfare provisioning does not convert into votes for the incumbent? Data from the National Election Studies 2024 appears to suggest that voters are discerning and concerned about access issues when it comes to welfare delivery. Voters do not cast their votes only on whether they received private (welfare) benefits but also consider factors such as their experience and well-being while accessing those goods and services. Examining the relationship between welfare services and voting, the article demonstrates that individual-level processes are politically significant enough to influence vote choices between the benefits and the votes. These findings could inform scholarly studies and policy debates on social service delivery and vote choice.

Not in the mood for party: Symptoms of depression reduce the weight of partisanship on vote choice

Not in the mood for party: Symptoms of depression reduce the weight of partisanship on vote choice

Is Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht A New Alternative for Populist Voters?

Abstract In just five months, Bündnis Sarah Wagenknecht (BSW) progressed from its foundation to winning six seats in the European Parliament. Research has indicated that the party has significant potential, particularly among voters of Germany’s two populist parties: Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Die Linke. Since BSW is also classified as a populist party, this article explores the extent to which populist attitudes influence the vote choice preference for BSW. The analysis employs a three-dimensional populism scale, using data from a VAA-like website. The results reveal that voters intending to vote for BSW exhibit strong anti-elitist and people-centric views, but do not hold Manichean outlooks. This positions BSW voters ideologically between Die Linke and AfD voters in terms of populist ideation – albeit closer to the AfD, reflecting the party-level populism of BSW. Additionally, populist attitudes, particularly anti-elitism, are significant predictors of vote-switching from other parties to BSW.

Bayesian approach and demo ethical foundations for sustainability: Reassessing the role of democracy in achieving equitable social transformation and sustainable development goals

This article is devoted to studying the principles of the relationship between democracy and demo ethics as tools for transforming the sustainable development of society. The study is based on the assumption that the effective functioning of democracy is associated with such social phenomena as elections and electoral behavior. The study examined electoral behavior and surveyed members of society about the qualities of candidates to which they pay special attention. An analysis of qualitative and quantitative data demonstrating the democratic foundations of elections of members of society was conducted, and an analysis of the choice of voters in the extraordinary elections of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan by region was conducted. In this study, Bayesian network modeling is experimentally applied to formalize the problem of identifying and analyzing the behavior of virtuous personality traits. A sociological survey of public opinion was conducted using the questionnaire method with the participation of 826 people from all regions of Kazakhstan from May to June 2023. A questionnaire was used to collect data, the main purpose of which was to compare attitudes and find out what values are considered important for people, what norms of behavior are considered acceptable, and to understand what values and norms prevail in society. It is concluded that the concept of demo ethics promotes a positive transformation of humanity and helps to form a new leader of virtue, a ruler of the city, capable of making ethical rational decisions that can ensure a balance between the economic, social, and environmental needs of humanity.

Exposure to Partisan News and Its Impact on Social Polarization and Vote Choice: Evidence From the 2022 Brazilian Elections

Studies have found limited evidence consistent with the theory that partisan and like-minded online news exposure have demonstrable effects on political outcomes. Most of this prior research, however, has focused on the particular case of the United States even as concern elsewhere in the world has grown about political parallelism in media content online, which has sometimes been blamed for heightened social divisiveness. This article investigates the impact of online partisan news consumption on voting behavior and social polarization during the 2022 elections in Brazil, a country where the public’s ties to political parties have historically been more limited or nonexistent but where ideologically aligned news content online has markedly increased in recent years. Drawing on a unique dataset linking behavioral web-tracking data of 2,200 internet users in Brazil and 4 survey waves with the same respondents, conducted before, during, and after the 2022 presidential elections, we find no significant relationship between the use of partisan media on either vote choice or social polarization overall; however, we do find some weak and inconsistent effects of trust in news moderating the impact of partisan media on social polarization.

The Effects of Personality Traits, Environmental Attitudes, and Demographic Factors on Green Party Support in Canada

Abstract By appealing to public concern over environmental issues, Green parties have emerged to gain secure positions in several party systems. However, in Canada, we know very little about why people support the Green Party. This research note draws upon the Canadian Election Study (CES) to explore the ways in which demographic factors, personality traits and individual environmentalism impact vote choice. Theorizing Green Party support as a form of pro-environmental behaviour, we build a model that tests the impact of demographic factors and personality traits as mediated through environmental attitudes. It finds that, while pro-environmental policy attitudes are the strongest predictor of Green Party support, several demographic factors and personality traits—specifically conscientiousness, openness to experience, agreeableness and extraversion—have an effect.

The Great Transition Towards Populism in Indian Politics: Populist Attitudes and Populist Radical Right (PRR) Voting in the 2019 Indian General Election

While extant research has identified several determinants of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s unprecedented victory in the 2019 general election, they have overlooked the party’s populist radical right (PRR) nature, particularly under the leadership of Narendra Modi. Based on the demand side of PRR voting, this article examines the effect of Indian voters’ populist attitudes on their voting choices for the BJP during the 2019 election. Using binary logistic regression (BLR) and conducting a robustness check, this article identifies that the variable of individuals’ populist attitudes does indeed exert a significant effect on their vote choices for the BJP during the 2019 election. In addition to this main variable, a number of controls that were included in the analysis were also found to be significantly correlated with the dependent variable. In light of the findings, the article proposes some theoretical implications.

Did sexist voters bring Italy its first female Prime Minister?

We examined the role of hostile sexism in vote at the 2022 general election in Italy, where the largest among center-right parties was led by a woman, Giorgia Meloni. We analyzed data from a sample of 1635 voters who participated in the 2022 ITANES survey. Hostile sexism was associated with male gender, lower education, higher religiosity, and right-wing orientation. As to vote choice, hostile sexism was positively associated with vote for Brothers of Italy and the other center-right parties. However, such association was significantly moderated by the evaluation of Giorgia Meloni, and disappeared among voters with a positive evaluation of her. Discussion focusses on the interplay between gender-related attitudes and candidate-based heuristics in vote choice.

Public Response to Trump’s Unilateral Policy Making: The Case of DACA

Like his predecessors, President Donald J. Trump deployed multiple unilateral tools to achieve policy goals that reflected campaign promises or emergent priorities that were unlikely to have successful legislative solutions. Congress, courts, and the public evaluate unilateral efforts in light of their own policy preferences. Here, we explore Trump’s attempts to terminate Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and the sensitivity of the public to those actions. Our public opinion data revealed a pattern of attentiveness to policy gain or loss on DACA. We find powerful effects on presidential approval and, to a lesser extent, vote choice for the 2020 presidential election. Our matching model reveals that one’s approval of ending DACA generates an incentive for Trump to take unilateral action on that policy. Among voters with hardened policy positions, the demand for the policy outcome overrides concerns about how that outcome is achieved. Indeed, unilateralism might electorally advantage a president, at least among those voters who have strong policy commitments.

How attitudes towards independence reshaped Scottish elections: A longitudinal analysis (1999–2021)

AbstractBritish and Scottish politics are undergoing a period of tumultuous change, leading to what some scholars have labelled ‘electoral shocks’, which have altered the relative importance of the main issues explaining citizens' political behaviour. The conventional wisdom now posits that attitudes towards Scottish independence play an increasing role in structuring citizens' vote choice in Scotland. However, a longitudinal assessment of this claim is lacking. In this research, we seek to fill this gap by making use of data from 1999 to 2021, which covers every Scottish election since devolution, and providing the first‐ever systematic assessment of the strength of attitudes towards Scottish independence in explaining electoral behaviour over time. Our findings reveal a substantial increase in the importance of attitudes towards independence, which we can quantify throughout the 1999–2021 period. We conclude by discussing the implications of this for British and Scottish politics.

Populist votes, orientations, and the COVID‐19 pandemic in Italy: A latent growth study

AbstractObjectiveWe aimed to predict the trend of populist orientations and votes in Italy before and during the COVID‐19 pandemic.MethodUsing the Consequences of COVID‐19 (COCO) data set (quota sample of the Italian adult population), we conducted a 3.5‐year, seven‐wave longitudinal study, with one wave before the pandemic (June 2019) and six waves during the pandemic (April and October 2020, April and October 2021, and April and October 2022).ResultsTwo latent growth analyses have shown that in the period we considered the degree of populism of the party chosen for the vote decreased linearly; this change was positively associated with the anxiety of the participants. Conversely, populist orientations remained stable.ConclusionThe COVID‐19 pandemic plausibly contributed to a superficial and temporary halt to the long populist wave that hit Italy in the last decades, as demonstrated by the decrease in populist vote choices concomitant with a persistent substrate of populist orientations.