Chinese PV Research Articles

How will manufacturing capacity additions in China and North America affect the carbon footprint of silicon photovoltaics?

Global annual PV installation is expected to increase from 150 GW in 2021 to 820 GW in 2030 to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Electricity production from PV generates almost zero carbon emissions, but the emissions from the manufacturing phase are nonnegligible. While most installed PV modules in the US are imported from China, manufacturers are expanding the manufacturing capacity in North America to reduce reliance on Chinese PV modules. Although it has been commonly perceived that the North American modules would have a lower environmental footprint than Chinese ones, the effect of capacity expansions and regional impact considering where each component is produced has yet to be fully understood. This study aims to compare the carbon footprint and cumulative energy demand of PERC modules manufactured in China and North America based on the expected 2024 manufacturing capacity additions. We develop PV manufacturing scenarios to perform life cycle assessment (LCA) for the first time considering the regional manufacturing capacity, partnerships between suppliers and manufacturers, and regional electricity grids, while previous PV LCA studies evaluated the national average production. The carbon footprint of China's PERC modules for monofacial and bifacial designs, when using the national average grid, is 517 and 412 kg CO2eq/kWp, respectively. In comparison, the GWP of modules produced in North America is 22.0–22.2 % lower than in China, a difference attributed to the lower carbon footprint of electricity grids. When considering where each component is made, the GWP increases by 1.5 % in China compared to the national average. This difference arises because most of China's solar manufacturing facilities are in regions with higher carbon intensity grids than the national average. Solar manufacturers can reduce the carbon footprint of their products by changing manufacturing locations or increasing the share of renewable sources for manufacturing. We find that both China- and North America-made PERC modules meet the Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool (EPEAT) low carbon solar criteria (630 kg CO2eq/kWp). However, to meet the ultra-low carbon solar criteria (400 kg CO2eq/kWp), a significant share, approximately 60 % for China and 15 % for North America, of the total electricity supply must be sourced from renewable energy in addition to the existing grid. This study identifies the significant impact of manufacturing locations on the overall carbon footprint of PV modules. It is important to consider production locations by stage and the regional electricity supply when developing the carbon assessment methodology of PV modules. Otherwise, manufacturers may take advantage of assessing carbon footprint using the country's average grid while producing products in dirty grid regions.

Hybrid Inception-embedded deep neural network ResNet for short and medium-term PV-Wind forecasting

Accurate and consistent forecasting of regional wind power is essential for efficient scheduling and maximizing the utilization of renewable energy in the power grid. Medium-term PV and wind power forecasting play a vital role in various aspects of renewable energy planning and management. It provides valuable insights into future wind power generation trends, enabling effective resource allocation, grid integration, and energy market operations. This paper proposed a hybrid inception embedded deep neural network with ResNet architecture, Proposed model utilizes ResNet blocks and Inception modules to enhance feature extraction and attention mechanisms. Furthermore, The bidirectional weighted LSTM and GRU layers are used to further increase the model's ability to capture temporal dependencies and provide accurate power generation. The Time2Vec method is integrated to capture important complex and nonlinear temporal information and patterns in the time series data. Our model utilizes both convolutional and recurrent neural network components to learn and predict power generation with improved accuracy. This study employs Chinese State Grid PV and wind datasets and Natal wind datasets to determine the performance of our proposed IEDN-RNET model. The results of our study show that the proposed IEDN-RNET model outperforms other algorithms with a 12% lower Mean Absolute Error, 13% lower Root Mean Square Error, 19% lower Normalized Mean Absolute Error, 20% lower Normalized Root Mean Square Error, and higher R-Square and correlation coefficients.

The impact of the belt and road initiative on Chinese PV firms’ export expansion

The impact of the belt and road initiative on Chinese PV firms’ export expansion

Alternative operational modes for Chinese PV poverty alleviation power stations: Economic impacts on stakeholders

Alternative operational modes for Chinese PV poverty alleviation power stations: Economic impacts on stakeholders

An investigation of the innovation efficacy of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises employing three-stage data envelopment analysis (DEA)

The authors found that only a few investigations have been performed on the success of Chinese PV companies in terms of inventiveness and the classic or the two-stage DEA model are the approaches utilized to assess the innovation efficacy of solar enterprises. Neither model takes into account the influence of external factors . The three-stage DEA model is adopted in this essay to find the actual impact of environmental variables on the innovation efficacy of Chinese photovoltaic entities. The real innovation efficacy value of Chinese photovoltaic enterprises is then calculated once the influence of environmental parameters on the efficacy of innovation has been accounted for. In the course of empirical research, it was discovered that the average innovation efficacy of Chinese solar-energy firms is 0.567. In addition, the average innovation pure technical efficacy is 0.829, and the median innovation scale efficacy value is 0.683; the median innovation scale efficacy value is 0.683. The poor innovation scale efficacy of Chinese solar firms is a major contributor to the low innovation efficacy of the industry. The poor innovation scale efficacy of Chinese solar firms is primarily responsible for their low innovation efficacy. Further study reveals that the size of a company’s total assets and its age have a beneficial influence on its innovation efficacy, with state-owned property rights, equity concentration, government subsidies, and Internet penetration all limiting the development of photovoltaic firms. This research aims to help photovoltaic enterprises to enhance their technological innovation inefficacy, and to provide the government ideas to implement differentiated industrial support for photovoltaic enterprises with different innovation efficiencies, so as to achieve long-term development of the photovoltaic industry.

Benefit from local or destination? The export expansion of Chinese photovoltaic industry under trade protection

The trade pattern of Chinese PV exports has been largely reshaped by the trade sanctions from the US and the EU since 2011. Such a shock stimulates the deflection of Chinese PV export, while why firms expand to certain countries instead of others is still unknown. This paper manifests the PV trade deflection first and then investigates the role of both local and destination spillovers in the process of Chinese PV firms' market reorientation. The results show that about 20 billion dollars of PV products, account for 22.66% of China's overall PV export, deflected to new markets from 2012 to 2016. Both local and destination spillovers are conducive for Chinese PV exports to deflect to countries without extra tariffs. Using a Difference-in-difference framework, we find strong evidence of the trade protection effect, which is mitigated by local agglomeration spillover. For firms that have served the US and the EU markets, previous export experiences undermine their market expansion. State-owned enterprises exhibit inertia in developing new destinations, being less sensitive to both spillovers. Countries with high economic sophistication are attractive for Chinese PV firms.

Producer vs. local government: The locational strategy for end-of-life photovoltaic modules recycling in Zhejiang province

The collection and recycling of end-of-life photovoltaic modules is emerging as a challenge due to the dramatic growing installment of distributed PV systems worldwide. This paper studies the locational strategy for recycling facilities of end-of-life PV modules from the perspective of various stakeholders with a case in Zhejiang province, one of the leading regions in promoting distributed photovoltaic applications in China. The generation of end-of-life modules in the “Million Household Rooftop PV Project” in Zhejiang Province is estimated from 2041 to 2045. The regional reverse logistics network for collection of the retired PV modules is optimized using the Mixed Integer Linear Programing (MILP) model. The article draws on the PV recycling scheme of PV CYCLE in Europe, and proposes the following two scenarios for comparison: (1) Scenario A: Municipal recycling, in which the local government takes the responsibility to establish the collection and recycling infrastructures; and (2) Scenario B: Producer cooperative recycling under Extended Producer Responsibility scheme, in which the PV producers use their sales and customer services network to help collecting the end-of-life PV modules. The different roles of the stakeholders affect the overall locational strategy for recycling. The result shows that: (1) Both scenarios result in similar path of the utility of recycling facilities: when only one recycling facility is needed in 2041, the recycling plant in Hangzhou will be used to minimize the overall transportation cost for the whole province; while more facilities are needed due to increasing generation of end-of-life modules in the next 4 years, regional collection centers will be assigned to the nearest recycling facility, dividing the province into three regional recycling group: “North Group (including Hangzhou, Jiaxing, and Huzhou)”, “South Group (including Jinhua, Lishui, and Quzhou)”, and the “Coastal Group (including Wenzhou and Taizhou)”. (2) Although the overall cost of reverse logistic in scenario B is slightly higher than scenario A at the beginning in 2041, integrating the producer's sales and service network into the collection network can significantly lower the overall reverse logistics cost up to 9.7 percent at the end of the 2043 when the waste PV generation achieves 72 thousand ton/year. The conclusion suggests the necessity to introduce the Extended Producer Responsibility principle in Chinese PV market to encourage the industry to participate in the construction of an efficient recycling system for the coming wave of end-of-life PV modules.

Evaluating metal constraints for photovoltaics: Perspectives from China’s PV development

Chinese PV industry can be expected to grow rapidly of until 2050, driven by ongoing decarbonization of the energy mix. Such large-scale deployments generate significant increases in metal demand that may induce resource dilemmas. In this study, dynamic material flow analysis is combined with scenario analysis to estimate future metal demand from Chinese PV industry and complemented by a supply risk assessment. It is found that the maximum annual copper and silver demand up to 2050 equals 79.6% and 58.5% of China’s annual production in 2019. Similarly, the baseline scenario projects maximum annual demand of Tellurium and Indium corresponding to 598.1% and 161.8% of China’s annual production in 2019. Cumulative base metal demand by 2050 for China’s PV sector is 17.3–22.8 times that of in 2018, while cumulative silver demand increases by 4.5–6 times from 2018 to 2050. In the baseline scenario, cumulative byproduct metal demand by 2050 is 14–27.3 times larger than in 2018. High annual and cumulative supply pressures indicate not only the general scarcity of base, precious, and byproduct metals but also highlights the importance of building stable trade relationships for future PV developments in China. Two different measures are identified and assessed for reducing short- and long-term supply risks. Prolonging the lifetime from 25 to 30 years can achieve a cumulative metal conservation of 6.7–24.2%, while shorter lifetime will give rise to secondary supply if recycling technologies are implemented. A clean energy shift indicates that metal availability will become an important perspective for assessing energy security, implying that resource constraints should be considered in different planning levels for renewable energy developments. Strong interconnections between energy and metal supply chains indicate that coordination and holistic nexus views are required for achieving simultaneous sustainability in both systems.

Is it time to launch grid parity in the Chinese solar photovoltaic industry? Evidence from 335 cities

This study evaluates grid parity in the Chinese solar PV industry by calculating the unsubsidized unit profits (UUPs) of solar PV projects in 335 Chinese cities. Furthermore, the effects of technological advances and various electricity price mechanisms on grid parity are explored. We consider the differences between centralized grid-connected and distributed projects. Two-factor learning curves are used to forecast technological progress and two kinds of electricity price mechanisms—government-regulated and market-based—are also brought into analyses. The results indicate the infeasibility of implementing complete grid parity regardless of the type of project. However, centralized grid-connected projects in 5 cities and distributed projects in 129 cities could implement pilot grid parity. On the whole, centralized grid-connected project has a lower benefit performance than distributed projects. Resource Zone I, which consists of Ningxia Province and several western cities in Gansu, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, has the best benefit performance of three resource areas. Technological advances and variations in electricity prices under both mechanisms could improve the UUPs but raising them above zero in all cities would still be impossible. The market prices of electricity under market-based mechanisms may generally have greater impacts than do government-regulated mechanisms on the benefit performances throughout the whole nation.

The Green Photovoltaic Industry Installed Capacity Forecast in China: Based on Grey Relation Analysis, Improved Signal Decomposition Method, and Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm

Despite photovoltaics being a new type of green energy technology, the output of the photovoltaic industry has been declining year by year since 2018. Thus, China’s photovoltaic industry must adapt to transformations from original extensive growth to the pursuit of high-quality energy. In order to accurately predict the installed capacity of photovoltaics in China, based on an extensive literature review and expert consultation, this paper is the first to construct a set of influencing factors that affect the photovoltaic industry, and we selected the main influencing factors as the predictive model’s input through the grey correlation analysis method. Then, we provide a novel grid investment forecast named the CEEMD-ABC-LSSVM predictive model (a least squares support vector machine algorithm based on complete total empirical mode decomposition and an artificial bee colony algorithm). This algorithm is based on the traditional LSSVM algorithm. The ABC algorithm is used to optimize the parameters, while CEEMD decomposes the original time series to obtain multiple components. While maintaining the data information, the data are expanded and the training is fully carried out. Next, in the empirical analysis, by comparing the prediction results of LSSVM, ABC-LSSVM, and the EMD-ABC-LSSVM algorithm, we demonstrate that the CEEMD-ABC-LSSVM model has strong generalization capabilities and achieves good Chinese PV growth based on the predicted effects of the installed capacity. Finally, the CEEMD-ABC-LSSVM model was used to predict the installed PV capacity in China from 2019 to 2035. We find that China’s installed PV capacity will surpass 4000 GW around 2035. As this installed capacity will increase year by year, China’s PV industry development will maintain steady overall growth.

From the Host to the Home Country, the International Upgradation of EMNEs in Sustainability Industries—The Case of a Chinese PV Company

With the internationalization of firms from emerging-markets, the upgradation along the global value chain of emerging-market multinational enterprises (EMNEs) has attracted the attention of academics and industries. However, the role of upgradation of EMNEs in a host country to the transition of EMNEs in the home country is ignored. This study explored how EMNEs from emerging-markets could upgrade their operations in their home countries driven by the transformation of subsidiaries in host countries. An in-depth analysis of Company S was conducted to elaborate on the resources and trigger time a firm needs to transform the function of a subsidiary in the host country, and the upgradation of the firm in the home country during the internationalization process. Research on the internationalization of Company S suggested that with the complementary capabilities and markets as the fundamental basic resources, the industrial crisis triggers the firm’s upgrading in the host country. In addition, the intrafirm (internal) market mechanism makes it possible to sustain the upgrading process without conflicts between subsidiaries. Moreover, synergies will develop through interactions with subsidiaries, owing to complementary capabilities and the internal market. The synergetic development promotes the transition of firms in the home country and emphasizes the complementarity of the manufacturing and engineering service. Finally, this study demonstrates the two-stage international upgrading process, in which the international upgrading of firms in the home country is driven by the development and transition of the subsidiary in the host country, which provides contributions to the internationalization upgrading strategy and process of firms from emerging-markets.

What accounts for the China-US difference in solar PV electricity output? An LMDI analysis

China's solar PV installation has seen dramatic growth since 2008. Although in 2015 China's cumulative installed capacity of solar PV was much higher than that of the US, the actual quantities of solar PV electricity output in the two countries were very close. Using Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) analysis approach, this study examined the factors leading to the unsatisfactory performance of Chinese solar unit PV electricity output compared to that of the US. It is found that the differences between China and the US solar PV electricity output in 2015 were mostly caused by solar system efficiency, followed by curtailment issues and unfavorable solar resources. The poor quality of solar panels, and of their operation and maintenance, combined with heavy pollution and smog have lowered the solar system efficiency in China. China's curtailment arises from the low proportion of distributed solar PV (DSPV) and the existing power sector regime that is heavily regulated by administrative planning. Policy implications are to improve solar PV system efficiency, increase the proportion of DSPV installation, enhance the support for energy storage development, and remove institutional constraints on renewable energy integration.

The Impact of Government Sponsored Collaboration Networks on Innovation in Chinese Solar PV Sector

This study explores the impact of government sponsored collaboration networks on network members’ subsequent innovation performance in terms of exploratory and exploitative innovations. Three aspects of network structure and three attribute proximity-based variables are jointly examined through a bibliometric methodology based on scientific publication and patent data. The results of the negative binomial regression indicate that collaboration network affects exploratory and exploitative innovations in different ways. In specific, direct ties have an inverted U-shaped effect on exploratory innovation, which is not the case in exploitative innovation. In contrast, indirect ties are positively related to exploitative innovation, but not exploratory innovation. Moreover, a positive effect of network efficiency is found on both exploratory and exploitative innovations. Regarding attribute proximity-based variables, the results indicate geographical proximity is negatively related to both exploratory and exploitative innovations. As such, an important implication is that collaboration networks might be deliberately structured to enhance exploratory and exploitive innovations. For policy makers, it is no longer appropriate to simply assume that collaboration is pure good thing and special attention should be paid to the network structure and composition in further policy design.

Natural resource endowment is not a strong driver of wind or PV development

Natural resources have previously been included in analyses explaining differences between renewable energy deployment across countries or subnational regions. Most previous analyses used resource volumes, or rough proxies for these, and results have been inconclusive. This study uses panel data analysis, with indicators of both the quality and quantity of natural resources, and analyses effects on wind and PV development by comparing countries of the world, and provinces or states of China, Germany, and the US. Either measure of natural resources has limited explanatory power on differences in wind or PV development between countries. Resource quality, not quantity, has a more consistent, positive effect when comparing states or provinces of China, Germany and the US. Still, plenty of countries, states or provinces with relatively poor quality natural resources have managed relatively high levels of wind or PV development, and vice versa. The only exceptions are the US wind power market and the Chinese PV market, where development is more strongly correlated with natural resources. The conclusion is that natural resources are a small part in a larger set of drivers, and that low quality natural resources do not preclude developing relatively high market shares of wind or PV power.

On the influence of the European trade barrier on the chinese pv industry: Is the solution to the solar-dispute “successful”?

In July 2013 the European Union (EU) imposed restrictions on Chinese solar photovoltaic (PV) manufacturers, looking to exporting to the EU. In this paper, we consider the impact of this trade barrier, using a sample of 454 stock-listed PV producing firms. We find that the trade barrier erased US$ 8,19 million off the value of the average European PV manufacturers and US$ 247.03 million off the value of the average Chinese PV manufacturers. We also find that while the trade barrier reduced the willingness of the industry to reorganise, it stimulates Chinese manufacturers to reorganise both their domestic and their international operations. The latter, we warn, is likely an attempt by Chinese manufacturers to ‘tariff jump’. We conclude, therefore, that the trade barrier was both inefficient, in that it both hurt the companies it aimed to protect, and ineffective, as those it sought to punish may have circumvented it.

The Energy and Environmental Performance of Ground-Mounted Photovoltaic Systems—A Timely Update

Given photovoltaics’ (PVs) constant improvements in terms of material usage and energy efficiency, this paper provides a timely update on their life-cycle energy and environmental performance. Single-crystalline Si (sc-Si), multi-crystalline Si (mc-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe) and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS) systems are analysed, considering the actual country of production and adapting the input electricity mix accordingly. Energy pay-back time (EPBT) results for fixed-tilt ground mounted installations range from 0.5 years for CdTe PV at high-irradiation (2300 kWh/(m2·yr)) to 2.8 years for sc-Si PV at low-irradiation (1000 kWh/(m2·yr)), with corresponding quality-adjusted energy return on investment (EROIPE-eq) values ranging from over 60 to ~10. Global warming potential (GWP) per kWhel averages out at ~30 g(CO2-eq), with lower values (down to ~10 g) for CdTe PV at high irradiation, and up to ~80 g for Chinese sc-Si PV at low irradiation. In general, results point to CdTe PV as the best performing technology from an environmental life-cycle perspective, also showing a remarkable improvement for current production modules in comparison with previous generations. Finally, we determined that one-axis tracking installations can improve the environmental profile of PV systems by approximately 10% for most impact metrics.

Risks in the development of Chinese photovoltaic industry: a perspective from low-carbon incentive policies

Photovoltaic industry based on the utilisation of solar power has an abundant and renewable energy resource and advantage in environmental protection. This paper seeks to elaborate on the status quo of Chinese PV industry and, including the trait of low carbon, the development in China and the risks existed in Chinese PV industry. Then, a simulation of risks in the development of Chinese PV industry is done by employing evolutionary game and system dynamics. Finally, several resolutions are put forward to tackle these risks: 1) merging and re–organisation; 2) optimising incentive policies; 3) strategic alliance; 4) shifting market focus from Europe to Asian–Pacific region and domestic market; 5) adjusting industrial structure.

A hybrid life-cycle inventory for multi-crystalline silicon PV module manufacturing in China

China is the world’s largest manufacturer of multi-crystalline silicon photovoltaic (mc-Si PV) modules, which is a key enabling technology in the global transition to renewable electric power systems. This study presents a hybrid life-cycle inventory (LCI) of Chinese mc-Si PV modules, which fills a critical knowledge gap on the environmental implications of mc-Si PV module manufacturing in China. The hybrid LCI approach combines process-based LCI data for module and poly-silicon manufacturing plants with a 2007 China IO-LCI model for production of raw material and fuel inputs to estimate ‘cradle to gate’ primary energy use, water consumption, and major air pollutant emissions (carbon dioxide, methane, sulfur dioxide, nitrous oxide, and nitrogen oxides). Results suggest that mc-Si PV modules from China may come with higher environmental burdens that one might estimate if one were using LCI results for mc-Si PV modules manufactured elsewhere. These higher burdens can be reasonably explained by the efficiency differences in China’s poly-silicon manufacturing processes, the country’s dependence on highly polluting coal-fired electricity, and the expanded system boundaries associated with the hybrid LCI modeling framework. The results should be useful for establishing more conservative ranges on the potential ‘cradle to gate’ impacts of mc-Si PV module manufacturing for more robust LCAs of PV deployment scenarios.

Collective Action: Adaptation, Mitigation, Innovation: The Case of the Chinese PV Industry

At the very beginning of this year, news that heavy pollution containing black carbon from Asia was drifting all the way to the Pacific coast of the United States made headlines in the news media. The pollution cloud was attributed to Chinese manufacturing. Old-fashioned air pollution, acid rain, and extreme weather events from climate change are just three of the consequences of intensive fossil fuel burning.

Enrolling in global networks and contingencies for China's solar PV industry

This study tests the contention in the Asian business systems literature that interacting with global managers and increasing experience via international education are ways by which Asian firms enroll in global networks, thus potentially leading to changes in their broader network contingencies. Chinese solar PV firms are examined given the competitiveness of Chinese products in the global marketplace and the importance being placed on solar energy domestically as China confronts increasing pressure to protect its environment and control pollution while meeting mounting energy needs. Results indicate an emphasis on extra-firm institutional network relationships both within and outside of China for all firms, characteristic of a bourgeoning energy sector. A unique result is that buyer–supplier networks are spatially influenced by extra-local managerial education. Enrolling in wider networks also matters as firms with internationally educated managers have more non-mainland Chinese managers, which mitigates traditional management practices at home.