Chinese Provincial Governments Research Articles

The Anatomy of Meritocracy: Collective Career Incentives and Subnational Variations of Economic Growth in China

While it is widely recognized that a country’s bureaucratic structure significantly influences economic growth, its subnational variations remain relatively unexplored. To address this gap, this paper introduces a unique model to quantify the collective career incentives of subnational leadership in China. By adopting machine-learning techniques that incorporate 250 individual features, this study derives a predicted probability of promotion as a proxy to measure an official’s career prospects. The individual career prospects are subsequently transformed into collective career incentives through an inverse-U-shaped relationship between the two. The empirical findings indicate that from 1997 to 2015, Chinese provincial governments achieved higher economic growth rates when a larger proportion of officials held mid-range rankings in terms of career prospects. This study also finds that the better economic performance stemmed from the collective career incentives of provincial leadership, rather than those of the supreme leaders of the province.

Measuring and Benchmarking Fiscal Health: A Study of Chinese Provincial Governments

ABSTRACT Understanding the fiscal health of local governments is crucial for sound fiscal decision-making processes and prudent fiscal management across the globe. To generate knowledge about fiscal health in an international context, this research establishes a four-dimensional framework to conceptualize and measure the fiscal health of Chinese local governments, considering China’s unique political and fiscal institutions. The study generates an aggregate fiscal health index and finds that its four components are strongly correlated with local socioeconomic conditions. With these measures, local government officials can conduct financial analysis, develop fiscal planning activities, and aid in designing and implementing fiscal resilience strategies.

One issue, two interpretations: unpacking the role of issue definition in e-government implementation

ABSTRACT Current research suggests that the way in which governments interpret e-government has the potential to affect e-government implementation but lacks systematic exploration. To address this gap, this study examines the role of issue definition in affecting e-government implementation. Taking Chinese provincial-level digital public service (DPS) as a case, this study finds that Chinese provincial governments prioritize economic potential over democratic potential when defining e-government. An economic-oriented issue definition of e-government can facilitate subsequent DPS implementation, eliciting a larger number of policy documents and better performance. However, defining e-government more as a democratic issue may not exert a sufficient influence.

Economy and carbon emissions optimization of different provinces or regions in China using an improved temporal attention mechanism based on gate recurrent unit

With the implementation of 14th Five-Year Plan in China and the completion of the poverty alleviation task, the economy in China has made great progress. However, the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has also increased, which will lead to the greenhouse effect for threatening economic development and affecting people's lives. Global warming has become the greatest challenge to contemporary economic and social development, and the transition to low-carbon economy has become a general trend of world economic development. Meanwhile, the traditional neural network method for predicting the economy and CO2 emissions is not accurate and objective because of the unbalanced labeling of training data and the inability to capture the relationship between time series data. Therefore, an economy and CO2 emission prediction model based on temporal attention Gate Recurrent Unit (GRU) (TA-GRU) with loss function Balanced Mean Square Error (BMSE) (BTA-GRU) mechanism is proposed to analyze and optimize the energy structure of 27 provincial-level administrative regions in China. Due to the unbalanced data labels in the different energy structure of different regions, the improved loss function BMSE is used to solve the problem of unbalanced labels from the perspective of statistics. Then, with coal, gasoline, petroleum, coke, fuel oil, diesel, natural gas and crude oil as inputs, the per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the desired output and the CO2 as the undesired output, the GRU can better capture time step dependencies in time series, and the attention mechanism can assign different weights to each time step, so that the proposed method can better learn data features and improve the accuracy of the an economic and CO2 emission prediction model. Finally, the CO2 emission and economic prediction model of different provincial-level administrative regions in China is established based on this proposed method. The experimental results show that compared with other mainstream time series data prediction models, this proposed model has better stability and practicability, and its mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE) reach 3.43, 3.28% and 2449.57, respectively. Furthermore, according to the actual situation of efficient provincial administrative regions, the energy structure of inefficient provincial administrative regions can be adjusted and optimized. Such as the energy structure of Hebei Province can be adjusted according to the energy structure of Beijing, it is estimated that the CO2 emissions of Hebei will be reduced by 82,972.43 ×10000 tons (WT) and its per capita GDP will be increased by 115,856 Yuan. Moreover, Chinese provincial governments should vigorously promote the use of clean energy, accelerate the establishment of a sound green low-carbon circular development economic system, and help achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.

Regulation flexibility and legitimacy building in governing intercity railways: The polymorphous role of the Chinese provincial government

ABSTRACT This study examines the polymorphous role of the Chinese provincial government in planning, financing, and constructing intercity railways in the Pearl River Delta region. Provincial governments claim absolute ownership in railway planning and land development surrounding railway stations. Informed by the state-theoretical perspective, we developed a conceptual framework that examines the city-regional governance of Chinese states with an emphasis on their capacity for regulation. Provincial governments selectively bargain with ministries and municipalities during development and they are flexible in the multi-scalar politics of railway projects. Their competence lies in their initiatives to gain knowledge of local land development. Our findings suggest that the polymorphous role of the provincial government extends beyond its usual function as a mediator in central-local relations and that its strategic nature reflects the complexity of China’s state powers and regulatory regimes. Meanwhile, local authorities pursue urban growth and central ministries aspire to exert their regulations on localities.

Effects of multiple incentives on electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment in China: An evolutionary analysis in complex network

With the current booming electric vehicle industry, an insufficient supply of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (EVCI) has become a major barrier to further penetration of electric vehicles. Chinese provincial and municipal governments have introduced multiple incentives to address EVCI investment obstacles and promote EVCI deployment. However, the effectiveness and differential effects of these policies are unclear. In this context, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model in complex networks for EVCI deployment that captures the dynamic interactions as well as internal and external influences in infrastructure networks. Leveraging this model, this paper simulates the effects of multiple incentive policies, including investment subsidies, construction subsidies, operation subsidies, user charging subsidies, and policy mixes on EVCI deployment. The results reveal that investment subsidies are quite effective but have more pronounced marginal diminishing effects. Both construction and operation subsidies have had a steady and positive impact. Implementing the two incentives as a policy mix can exert complementary effects, but a careful cost-benefit analysis is needed to prevent incentive saturation. The effect of charging subsidies is not as significant as other incentives. Finally, incentive policies should be implemented for a long time and adjusted for different markets and stages to optimize effectiveness.

Policy adoption and diffusion during the COVID-19 crisis

ABSTRACT During the COVID-19 crisis, what explains the variation in policy adoptionamong Chinese provincial governments? To answer this question, we gathered data on twenty-five COVID-19 containment policies used in China from 31 December 2019 to 18 March 2020. We conducted state-of-the-art multilevel pooled event history analysis to allow us to control for policy heterogeneity. Our results demonstrate that variation in policy adoption during the crisis largely follows politics as usual: policies diffuse from the centre to the provinces in the same way that non-crisis policies diffuse. Our findings highlight the political dynamics of policy adoption and crisis response within China.

Expert recommendations on human papillomavirus vaccine immunization strategies in China

HPV vaccination is the most effective way for preventing the cervical cancer. To respond the WHO calling for cervical cancer elimination, some Chinese provincial governments are launching the Free HPV Vaccination Programs for teenagers. Basing on the current stage of domestic utilization and the global immunization strategies of HPV vaccination, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the key aspects in the process of HPV vaccination, including subjects and priority vaccination population, vaccination dose and time interval, the principal of vaccination replacement, and the vaccination suggestion on special populations, etc. The article above contents and gives the advice on the immunization strategy of HPV vaccination in China.

Environmental Uncertainty, Entrepreneurial Governance, and Entrepreneurial Outcome

Uncertainty is a central construct in the entrepreneurship literature. However, the relationship between environmental uncertainty and entrepreneurial outcome is still underexplored. As the real world becomes increasingly discordant, understanding how environmental uncertainty affects entrepreneurial outcome and how startups can mitigate uncertainty has attracted much attention from both entrepreneurship scholars and entrepreneurs. Aiming to fill this gap, this paper studies two research questions: (1) how different kinds of environmental uncertainty affect entrepreneurial outcomes differently? (2) how entrepreneurial governance helps startups mitigate or embrace environmental uncertainty? Integrating theories from management and economics literature, I propose that macroeconomic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty negatively affect entrepreneurial outcome, while political uncertainty positively affects entrepreneurial outcome. Informal institutions such as clan culture can mitigate the negative effects of economic policy uncertainty and amplify the positive effects of political uncertainty. Moreover, firms with fewer shareholders, with institutional shareholders, or without majority-hold shareholders will also be less negatively affected by economic policy uncertainty. Utilizing a novel dataset of over 9 million Chinese firms registered during 2005–2014 and over 246,000 normative documents published by Chinese provincial governments from 2005 to 2018, I found support for my propositions.

Determinants of Chinese Provincial Governments’ Responses to the 2018 Vaccine Scandal

Scholars who study governance in authoritarian countries have long highlighted the importance of fiscal capacity and pressure from the central government in determining the responsiveness and policy changes of subnational governments. However, policy orientation is also important in shaping how subnational governments react to a crisis. Using provincial governments’ responses during the 2018 Chinese vaccine scandal, I find strong evidence that an emphasis on public health, as well as early responses by neighboring provinces, increased the likelihood of a quick response. Moreover, issue salience minimized the direct effect of pressure from the national government. An additional paired case study of the provinces of Hubei and Hunan shows that the importance accorded by the provincial government to public health policy was implemented at the sub-provincial level through China’s one-level-down cadre management system; it also may explain Hubei’s delay in responding to COVID-19 at an early stage.

Adoption of Major Housing Adaptation Policy Innovation for Older Adults by Provincial Governments in China: The Case of Existing Multifamily Dwelling Elevator Retrofit Projects.

(1) Background: The housing environment is crucial to the health of older Chinese people and is becoming an urgent policy initiative. This study explores factors that facilitate or impede the adoption of policy innovation on major housing adaptation (HA) by Chinese provincial governments using the framework of policy innovation and diffusion theory. (2) Methods: This study constructs an event history dataset on HA policy related to elevator retrofitting in existing multifamily dwellings in China; the lack of elevators constitutes an insurmountable barrier in older adults’ daily lives in China. The hypotheses were tested by using a traditional event history analysis (EHA) model and a piecewise constant exponential (PCE) model, which is a modified EHA model. The dataset was summarized as “province-year” event history data on 30 Chinese provinces from 2008 to 2019. (3) Results: In addition to internal determinants (e.g., population aging level and financial dependency), diffusion mechanisms can significantly facilitate or impede the adoption of major HA policy innovation by provincial governments. Policy adoption by neighboring governments helps facilitate policy adoption by nonadopters, but policy adoption by subordinate city governments impedes provincial governments’ adoption of major HA policy innovation. (4) Conclusions: This study concludes that provincial governments’ adoption of major HA policy innovation should be given a higher policy priority. The central government can promote provincial governments’ adoption of major HA that primarily benefits older adults by using fiscal transfer payments and enhancing the legitimacy of such policy.

Government as a non-financial participant in innovation: How standardization led by government promotes regional innovation performance in China

Chinese provincial governments choose to become active and leading participants in standardization projects rather than opt out of them. As most extant literatures focus on the effect of standardization without government intervention, a research question then arises whether standardization with government's lead could increase the output of innovation product like patent within a region. By investigating the case of China's standardization at provincial level, this study attempts to explore the association between standardization led by government and regional innovation performance. A series of panel data analyses shows the following. (1) Increasing the supply of local standards by provincial government significantly promotes the innovation performances of the cities in this province. (2) Policy of provincial governments to disclose standard content freely also benefit the cities' innovation performances in these particular provinces. (3) The fiscal investment of city government in science and technology positively moderates the effect of provincial government's lead in local standardization on the city's innovation performance. These results suggest that besides financial sponsorship, government could also directly contribute to innovation in a non-financial way by leading standardization. Our study adds to the discussion about government's possible roles in innovation.

Public Service and Public Happiness: Inferences From Big Weibo Datasets for 31 Chinese Provincial Governments.

The change of public service has usually been considered to affect public happiness. However, since the publication of the Easterlin Paradox, the causal relationship between public service and public happiness has been furiously questioned by public affairs researchers. It has been documented through resolving the four causal factors of public happiness within public administration, new public administration, new public management, and governance that public-service-driven public happiness may be attributed to four happiness dimensions: Objective Reality, Subjective Reality, Inter-Subjective Reality, and Virtual Reality. This article reports the results of significance tests of the relationship between public service and public happiness from analyses of large datasets collected from Weibo systems in 31 Chinese provincial governments from 2010 to 2020. The analyses show that the public service change during this period has not yet led to satisfactory improvement in all four happiness dimensions. Finally, we propose strategies for governments to modify public services to enhance public happiness.

Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China

AbstractAn economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U‐shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM2.5across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.

The Politics of Policy Reformulation: Implementing Social Policy in Provincial China

ABSTRACT How do Chinese provincial governments reformulate the general central policies into implementable local policy outputs? How does this vary across provinces? Despite considerable research on policy implementation in China, strategies of policy reformulation remain understudied. To better understand these strategies, this article proposes a four-scenario typology: an innovative strategy, a defensive strategy, a conservative strategy, and a perfunctory strategy. Using a novel 2003–2017 dataset of provincial documents that were reformulated from central social policy mandates, as well as a preliminary case study of the Household Registration System reform, this article explores the spatial and temporal dynamics of policy reformulation in provincial China. The findings shed light on the complexity of policy implementation in China.

Did carbon emission trading system reduce emissions in China? An integrated approach to support policy modeling and implementation

As the highest carbon emission country in the world, it is particularly important to investigate the implementation effect of China’s carbon emission trading (CET) system. Because of the complexity to figure out the counterfactual effect when a single unit is treated, the counterfactual and causal effects of the CET system on the carbon emissions are seldom identified. In order to overcome the weakness that counterfactual effect is difficult to be verified and policy persistence is difficult to be estimated, Synthetic Control Method (SCM) and Regression Discontinuity (RD) are combined to better understand and evaluate the impact of CET system in China. Through the analysis, it is found that CET system is effective in China, but the effect is driven by economic development, energy consumption, FDI and other variables. Because of the differences in economic, geographical, technological and environmental conditions in various areas, each Chinese provincial government should formulate a targeted policy according to local conditions, ensuring an economic and environmentally sustainable growth in the future.

Policy Reinvention and Diffusion: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Governments

Since the late 1950s, more than 1,000 academic articles related to policy innovation and diffusion have been published; most focus on how a policy spreads once it has been created, yet less attention is paid to how it is changed by those who adopt it. We extend the focus of policy innovation research from policy inventors to followers by focusing on the diffusion and adoption of the “One Visit at Most” policy in China. Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) is used to summarize the core factors affecting the reinvention of this policy by provincial governments in China. The results verify the characteristics of political systems are important factors in the provincial government’s policy reinvention. The vertical intergovernmental relation is the necessary condition to influence the policy reinvention. The combination of the factors for horizontal intergovernmental relations, the geographical leadership mobility of governors, and the characteristics of the government’s own economic environment also affect the provincial government’s policy reinvention. This study contributes the unique characteristics of the Chinese system and important theoretical developments to the study of policy reinvention within the broader policy innovation literature.

Does distance matter in foreign direct investment sub-national location choice? Evidence from China

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) make investment decisions according to the distance factors at a sub-national level. This paper made estimates using the gravity model with provincial foreign direct investment (FDI) data from 2000 to 2012 and employed three concepts of distance. Our empirical results indicate that geographic distance and cultural distance have significant negative effects on FDI flow, whereas economic distance has a significant positive effect. It suggests that FDI prefers to locate in regions that are geographically and culturally close but economically distant from the home country, which further implies that FDI in China is dominated by vertical FDI. Our findings suggest that Chinese provincial governments should place emphasis on attracting FDI from culturally close countries and provide institutional support to encourage and promote horizontal FDI.

International friendship cities, regional government leaders, and outward foreign direct investment from China

This study investigates an important yet overlooked phenomenon regarding the international friendship city (IFC) as a sub-national diplomatic relation that links host country cities sharing similarities. We theorize IFC relations as a proxy for an important institutional instrument for regional governments to facilitate outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Drawing on the institution-fostering view, we argue that the greater the extent to which local governments become involved in developing IFCs, the better they are able to employ this instrument to foster OFDI. We further argue that the effectiveness of this instrument relies on the characteristics of regional leaders. The fostering effects of IFC development are stronger when regional leaders are at the later stage of their tenures and when they retain their positions. An analysis of 967 IFC relationships developed by 31 Chinese provincial governments with 102 countries supports our hypotheses.

Fiscal slack or environmental pressures: which matters more for technological innovation assimilation? A configurational approach

Prior studies suggest that fiscal slack may positively affect technological innovation in the public sector but yield inconsistency between theoretical expectations and empirical findings. To address this research gap, this study develops a configurational explanation combining fiscal slack and environmental pressures by employing fs-QCA in the context of Chinese provincial governments’ online public service provision. The findings reveal that the role of fiscal slack is environmentally dependent on explaining technological innovation and that environmental pressures seem to be more important. That is, fiscal slack is likely irrelevant to a high degree of technological innovation assimilation, while the demanding environments of multiple environmental pressures matter. Relative fiscal scarcity may be somewhat relevant to a low degree of technological innovation assimilation only when combined with a more relaxed environment. Several theoretical and practical implications are discussed.