Chinese Energy Policy Research Articles

Reductions in emissions of local air pollutants and co-benefits of Chinese energy policy: a Shanghai case study

To better understand the reductions in local air pollution that will result from the implementation of current Chinese energy policy, as well as the co-benefit for greenhouse-gas emission reductions, a Shanghai case study was conducted. The MARKAL model was used to forecast energy consumption and emissions of local air pollutants under different energy policy scenarios and also to analyze the associated reductions in CO2 emissions. The results show that energy policies in Shanghai will significantly reduce SO2 and PM10 emissions and will also achieve the co-benefit of mitigating the increase of CO2 emissions. In energy policy scenarios, SO2 emissions during the period 2000–2020 will maintain the same level as in 2000; and the annual rate of increase of CO2 emissions will be reduced to 1.1–1.2%, compared with 2.7% under a business-as-usual scenario. The problem for the future will be NOx emissions, which are projected to increase by 60–70% by 2020, due to expansion of the transportation system.

Limits to leapfrogging in energy technologies? Evidence from the Chinese automobile industry

Limits to leapfrogging in energy technologies? One of the most attractive notions in the field of sustainable energy development is the concept of energy-technology “leapfrogging”. Leapfrogging through international technology transfer can be especially problematic because often developing countries do not have the technological capabilities to produce or integrate the advanced energy technologies themselves. Until they have acquired the capabilities to produce the advanced technologies themselves, most late-industrializing countries buy their new technologies from industrialized countries, usually through licensing or joint-venture arrangements. Empirical case studies of the three main Sino-US passenger-car joint ventures reveal that until the late 1990s, little energy or environmental leapfrogging occurred in the Chinese automobile industry as the result of the introduction of US automotive technology. An improvement in Chinese capabilities and more stringent Chinese energy and environmental policies are needed to induce energy leapfrogging in the Chinese automobile industry. Foreign firms also have a social responsibility to contribute to China's sustainable industrial development. In order to realize the promise of the leapfrogging, the limits to leapfrogging must be identified and acknowledged so that strategies can be devised to surmount the barriers to the introduction of advanced energy technologies in developing countries.

The CO 2 emission reduction benefits of Chinese energy policies and environmental policies: : A case study for Shanghai, period 1995–2020

The international literature has paid much attention to so-called ‘fringe benefits’ of greenhouse gas (GHG) policies. The concept is that GHG emission reduction in developing countries will also reduce local air pollution. On the basis of this concept, it is argued that it is possible to achieve simultaneously a reduction of local air pollution and a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In reality, however, there is a sequence to the policy agenda. First the apparent local air pollution problems are tackled then the more distant greenhouse gas problem is considered. This sequence has consequences for the optimal policy selection. Moreover, most studies that focus on fringe benefits of GHG policies neglect the existence of cost-effective dedicated abatement technology for local air pollutants. This paper analyses the optimal set of policies for reduction of SO 2, NO x and CO 2 in Shanghai for the period of 2000–2020. The analysis is based on a linear programming MARKAL model for the Shanghai energy system. The results show that the relevance of no-regret options is limited because Shanghai has improved its energy efficiency significantly in recent years. The model calculations suggest that this trend will persist if current policies are sustained. This energy efficiency improvement and the planned introduction of natural gas have important benefits from a GHG emission point of view. These benefits have received little attention as yet. Local air pollution reduction can result in additional GHG emission reduction up to 2010. After 2010, however, its CO 2 emission co-benefits are limited. Dedicated abatement technology is the most cost-effective way to reduce local air pollution. An additional incentive of 100 Yuan/t CO 2 emission reduction (12.5 Euro/t) results in an additional emission reduction of 11% (22 Mt CO 2), and it results in a significantly different technology mix than stand-alone local air pollution policies. The total potential for GHG emission reduction amounts to 66 Mt in 2010 and to 49 Mt in 2020 compared to base case levels without policies.