One-child Policy Research Articles

Do Teachers Perceive “A Shared Sense of Us”? – Social Identity Leadership of Kindergarten Principals in Mainland China

Soar in the children population following the termination of Mainland China’s three-decade-old one-child policy has aroused attention and concern of the quality of early childhood education, especially the leadership and management approaches of kindergarten principals. However, practical tools for assessing kindergarten principal leadership have not yet been developed in Mainland China. Identity leadership (IL) is a new model in leadership research, and the Identity Leadership Inventory (ILI) facilitates leadership assessment in different contexts with diverse samples. This is the first study to explore principal identity leadership in a Chinese educational context. The Principal-ILI (P-ILI) Chinese version was administered to kindergarten principals and teachers from municipalities and provinces all over Mainland China. A total of 2743 valid responses were collected from 498 kindergartens. Results revealed not only good reliability and validity of P-ILI in the Chinese educational context, but also high perceived IL of most kindergarten principals as well as differences in IL perceived by respondents of different ages, positions, and kindergarten types.

Effects of Sibship Size and Birth Order on Sexual and Reproductive Health among Sexually Active Young People in China.

Only children are more prevalent among young people today in China due to the globally renowned one-child policy since the 1980s, but the association between sibship size and the sexual activity of youth needs to be further clarified. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of siblings, being an only child, and birth order on the sexual and reproductive health (SRH) of young people. Data were utilized from 11,044 sexually active college/university students who participated in a large-scale national survey. Overall, numerous undergraduates nationally identified as only children (43.5%); for non-only children, 32.4% were oldest children, 10.5% were middle children, and 13.6% were youngest children. For both sexes, having more siblings was related to having risky sexual debuts and less contraceptive use. Furthermore, young men and young people born in rural areas with more siblings were more likely to have severe health outcomes, such as unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted infection(s). Finally, being an only child protected youth from risky sexual behaviors and adverse health outcomes. For students with siblings, middle children were more inclined to risky sexual initiation and low frequency of contraception compared to first-borns. Our analysis provides the first evidence of one child and sibling effects on SRH in China and has significant implications for promoting SRH in the context of encouraging childbirth.

A Matching Model of Co-Residence with a Family Network: Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract We develop a co-residence model between young adults and the elderly as an application of the Shapley–Shubik–Becker bilateral matching framework. This model captures competition between adult children and between parents and parents-in-law. Using microdata from China, we estimate our model by using a network simulation method to fill in partially unobservable marriage links. We find that our model explains the child-side and parent-side competitions observed in the data better than two alternative multinomial logit models with only one-sided competition. In addition, counterfactual experiments quantify the effects of changes in the one-child policy and housing prices on intergenerational co-residence.

Succession Concern and Acquisitions of Family Firms

Succession concern can substantially influence how family firms make strategic choices differently from nonfamily firms. However, identifying the effect of family succession concern is challenging because it is often confounded with the effect of other socioemotional goals or inherent characteristics of family firms. Leveraging the reform of one-child policy in China, which exogenously increased family owners’ expected number of children, we investigate how the increase in succession needs affects family firms’ acquisition activities. Using data on Chinse listed firms, we find with a difference-in-differences analysis that the policy reform significantly increased the number of acquisitions undertaken by family firms compared with non-family firms. The effect is stronger when the board chair belongs to the age cohort affected most by the one-child policy, and when firms are located in regions where the family planning was more strongly enforced. We also find that family firms with the owners’ children already involved in the management are affected less than other family firms without the owners’ children involved. Finally, we find that family firms undertook more unrelated acquisitions than other types of acquisitions after the policy reform, an arrangement that would help owners mitigate the sibling infight in family succession.

The role of family musical involvement in family relationships

Previous studies suggest that family musical activities have a positive influence on family cohesion and well-being. Despite the significance of both family and music in people’s lives, few studies have focused on the function of music within the family unit, and very few have examined families in China. This study presents a qualitative investigation into the effects of family musical involvement (FMI) on Chinese family relationships. Participants were recruited from Chengdu, Sichuan, China. Six urban families with 16 people in total participated in the in-depth interviews. The participating families had all experienced the one-child policy and participant accounts include retrospective accounts. The interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis. Findings suggest that FMI can exert both positive and negative impacts on family relationships. FMI can benefit parental relationships and parent–child relationship through nurturing a joint hobby and sharing the responsibility of child rearing. It can also bring about challenges to families, such as encountering issues of integration and control. The impact of negative experiences was short term, as it was often mediated by the participants in a positive way. FMI benefits families, but the challenges of organizing and maintaining it should not be taken for granted.

Home-based parental involvement in single- and multiple-child Chinese families: the role of socio-demographic characteristics and parental expectations

ABSTRACT Home-based parental involvement is widely considered to be associated with early learning outcomes. However, previous research has heavily focused on school-age children and has relied heavily on Western samples. After China relaxed its one-child policy in 2013, the impact on Chinese families became visible. This study analyzes the data of 3272 children from the 2018 China Family Panel Studies to investigate the relationship between socio-demographic characteristics, parental expectations and parental involvement. The results show that Chinese parents from one-child families were more involved in their child's education than their multiple-child counterparts. Structural equation modeling analysis shows that parental expectations mediated the association between socio-demographic characteristics and parental involvement. The exact nature of these links differed significantly when the two types of families were compared. These findings suggest that it is worthwhile to conduct further studies into family process, as this will make it possible to investigate the underlying mechanisms.

“One or Two?”: Fertility Decisions After the One-child Policy in China

The one-child policy, as a government-guided family planning and birth control policy, lasted for nearly thirty years beginning in the 1970s. As the decreasing fertility rate in modern Chinese society caused many problems, such as a demographic imbalance, the government decided to establish the universal two-child policy in urban areas in 2015. However, the fertility rate did not rise as much as the government expected. To study the reasons for the continuously low fertility rate, I conducted 20 semi-structured qualitative interviews with 20 young married heterosexual couples in the city of Jinan, Shandong province, China. Throughout this paper, I focus on the role of kinship and the socioeconomic barriers to having a second child in urban Chinese families after the establishment of the two-child policy. The main reasons explaining the unexpected low fertility rate after the universal two-child policy in urban areas are first, increasing cost of investing in children, and second, the lack of interaction with cousins. This research outlines demographic policy and how fertility ideology and family decisions changed through policy changes.

The relationship between culture-related grief beliefs, prolonged grief disorder and suicide ideation among Shidu parents in rural China.

There are many one-child families in China due to the one-child policy. Parents who have lost their only child and are unable to conceive another child or unwilling to adopt a child are called Shidu parents in China. The death of an only child puts Shidu parents at the risk of mental illness and even suicide. Few studies have explored the influence of cultural beliefs and prolonged grief disorder on suicide ideation. This study involved rural Shidu parents from Sujiatun district of Shenyang, China. Questionnaires consisted of the Prolonged Grief questionnaire - 13 (PG-13), the Culture-related Grief Beliefs of Shidu Parents Questionnaire (CBSQ), one question from the baseline National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) to measure suicide ideation and demographic and bereavement-related information. Bivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore associated factors of suicide ideation. Sixty-nine (28.8%) of the 240 Shidu parents reported having suicide ideation. Having chronic disease (OR = 5.509, p < 0.01), having religious belief (OR = 3.923, p < 0.05) and having a grandchild (OR = 2.552, p < 0.05) were associated with an increased risk of suicide ideation. Destiny belief (a subscale of CBSQ) was negatively associated with suicide ideation (OR = 0.818, p < 0.05). Prolonged grief disorder (OR = 9.280, p < 0.01) and perceived stigma (a subscale of CBSQ) (OR = 1.200, p < 0.05) was positively associated with suicide ideation after adjusting for controlling variables. Suicide ideation is prevalent in rural Shidu parents. Reducing perceived stigma and alleviating prolonged grief disorder may decrease the risk of suicide among rural Shidu parents.

The Impact of the Two-Child Policy on the Pension Shortfall in China: A Case Study of Anhui Province

The one-child policy was designed as a basic national policy in China and was written into the Constitution in 1982. The main content and purpose of the policy are to advocate late marriage, late childbearing and fewer births to control population growth in a planned way. Since the implementation of the basic national policy, its positive effect upon China’s economic development cannot be ignored, but after entering the 21st century, the problems related to population aging became obvious. Consequently, the basic pension system is confronted with great challenges. Under these circumstances, China initiated the two-child policy in 2016. This paper tries to forecast the change of pension shortfall after the implementation of the “two-child” policy in Anhui Province in China by establishing a pension revenue model, a pension expenditure model and a population prediction model. The prediction results reveal that the “two-child” policy helps to alleviate the pressure on the pension system, but the effect is limited and the “two-child” policy cannot change the trend of increasing pension shortfall in the long run. To reduce the burden on the pension system, the government can consider extending the pension contribution period and retirement age to make pension system sustainable.

The Study of Sibship Size and the Likelihood of Marriage Satisfaction in China

According to the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the national divorce rate of China has constantly climbed from 1.85 per 1000 inhabitants in 2009 to 3.36 per 1000 inhabitants in 2019 (Ma, 2020). Growing up under the one-child policy, the younger generation is vulnerable to stress and sensitive to interpersonal problems due to the lack of peer support. Furthermore, the low marriage rate reflects a lower reproduction rate and a higher divorce rate in the future, which will potentially cause social issues in China. It is necessary to consider the issue from different aspects. The study collected people's marital satisfaction in different generations under a specific one-child policy using a questionnaire. Based on the final data, the study showed that married people born before the one-child policy (1969-1979) were significantly more satisfied with their marital happiness than those born after the policy (1980-1990). It confirms that the current low fertility rate, marriage rate, and high divorce rate among young people are inextricably linked to the one-child policy that has been in place for about three decades, given China's unique cultural policies. Although the Chinese government has now officially abolished the policy in 2016, this study can still provide a new way of thinking about the development of society.

P-744 Fertility intention for a second or third child among childbearing couple in Shanghai, China

Abstract Study question What is the intention rate and related factors for a second or third child among childbearing couple? Summary answer Among couples with one child, 16.2% are willing to have a second child. Only 9.4% of couples with two children are pursuing third child. What is known already The decline in fertility is becoming an inevitable trend in most countries around the world. In the end of 1970s, the one-child policy was implemented. Since 21st century, China has gradually changed its fertility policy, from a selective two-child policy to a comprehensive two-child policy. Nevertheless, the number of total annual births in China has not shown an obviously increasing trend of growth. On August 20, 2021, the Chinese government amended the law to allow a couple to have three children. However, only a few studies have been conducted to evaluate fertility intention in the couples who already have kids. Study design, size, duration We conducted a cross-sectional survey in Shanghai from July to August in 2021. This study population was based on the female fertility database established between 2013 and 2017, which contains basic sociodemographic information and the reproductive intentions. We conducted this study to evaluate the fertility intention of the second or the third child and its related factors. Participants/materials, setting, methods From July to August in 2021, couples aged between 20 and 45 years old with one or two children was invited to participate in our study to give the information about “second/third births intention” and the factors that may probably related to it. Between the groups with and without second/third child intention, the chi-squared test and binary logistic regression was applied to compare the difference in the basic characteristics and relative factors. Main results and the role of chance Among couples with one child, 130 (16.2%) couples had intention to have a second child. Only 9.4% of couples with two children show the desire to have a third child. The ideal number of children for all our participants was 1.72±0.52. And the ideal number of children among couples with one child is 1.61±0.52. By contrast, the ideal number for couples with two kids was 2.06±0.34. The study showed great differences in Socioeconomic and personal factors between two groups. For second-child intention, the female age over 35 years, first child's age over 7 years, annual payment for the first child ranges from 70,000-100,000 RMB and children’s educational barriers were negatively associated with an intention to have a second child. Job with more free time makes it easier for couples to have a second child. Among couples with two children, parents with family financial constraints and children’s educational barriers are less likely to have a third child. Fertility-encouraged government policy can promote couples to pursue a second or third child. It is necessary to take measures to reduce the burden of raising children and increase free time for couples to relief parent’s pressure of rearing a child. Limitations, reasons for caution As this is a single-center study in Shanghai, the sample size is relatively small. Although our sample size still meets the basic statistical requirements and can detect a moderate effect size as significance, the results may not be applicable to some other regions. Wider implications of the findings The decision of fertility intention is influenced by female age, the first child’s age, family economic conditions, children’s education and national fertility policies. It is necessary to take measures to reduce the burden of raising children and increase free time for couples to relief parent’s pressure of rearing a child. Trial registration number ChiCTR2100045315

Risk Factors for Macrosomia in Multipara: A Multi-Center Retrospective Study.

The increased incidence of macrosomia has caused an enormous burden after the transition from the almost 40-year one-child policy to the universal two-child policy in 2015 and further to the three-child policy in 2021 in China. However, studies on risk factors of macrosomia in multipara under the new fertility policy in China are limited. We aim to explore the incidence and risk factors for macrosomia in multipara to provide the scientific basis for preventing macrosomia in multipara. A multi-center retrospective study was conducted among 6200 women who had two consecutive deliveries in the same hospital and their second newborn was delivered from January to October 2018 at one of 18 hospitals in 12 provinces in China. Macrosomia was defined as birth weight ≥ 4000 g. Logistic regression models were performed to analyze risk factors for macrosomia in multipara. The incidence of macrosomia in multipara was 7.6% (470/6200) and the recurrence rate of macrosomia in multipara was 27.2% (121/445). After adjusting for potential confounders, a higher prepregnancy BMI, higher gestational weight gain, history of macrosomia, a longer gestation in the subsequent pregnancy were independent risk factors of macrosomia in multipara (p < 0.05). Healthcare education and preconception consultation should be conducted for multipara patients with a history of macrosomia to promote maintaining optimal prepregnancy BMI and avoid excessive gestational weight gain to prevent macrosomia.

Changing family and marital structure in China: emotional strain at cultural and individual levels

This article examines the evolution of family and marital structure in modern China in the light of changes in China's culture, changing government policy and changes in the attitudes and situations of modern couples and families. The most dramatic changes involved the one-child policy, instituted in the late 1970s, that changed family structure from large male-preference families to single child families that enhanced the value of girls. Since sex was no longer mainly for procreation, it also revised the role of sexuality. The result was both to pamper the "only children" and increase the pressure on them both as children and as young adults, because this policy produced an ageing population without enough workers. The recent change in government policy to allow three children has not altered median family size as many young people do not want more children. There is also the lingering effect on families of China's history of trauma. Several clinical vignettes illustrate the complex mixture of forces at play in modern families.

Modelling the impact of birth control policies on China's population and age: effects of delayed births and minimum birth age constraints.

We consider age-structured models with an imposed refractory period between births. These models can be used to formulate alternative population control strategies to China’s one-child policy. By allowing any number of births, but with an imposed delay between births, we show how the total population can be decreased and how a relatively older age distribution can be generated. This delay represents a more ‘continuous’ form of population management for which the strict one-child policy is a limiting case. Such a policy approach could be more easily accepted by society. Our analyses provide an initial framework for studying demographics and how social constraints influence population structure.

The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment

We study the consequences of later marriage on subsequent life outcomes. China’s family planning policies in the early 1970s – before the One-Child Policy – regulated not only childbirth but also marriage. The recommended minimum marriage age of 25 years for men and 23 years for women was effectively relaxed when the government formally introduced the One-Child Policy and put greater emphasis on directly controlling fertility rather than marriage. Subsequently, we find that the marriage age, which had been increasing steadily since 1970, suddenly started to decline in the early 1980s. This policy shift provides us with an opportunity to apply a regression probability jump and kink design for the purpose of identification. Using data from the 2000 census, we establish that later-married men have fewer children and that later-married women are more likely to participate in the labor market. We find no consistent evidence that later marriage improves education, probably because most Chinese people marry after completing their education.

Fertility Intentions for a Second Child and Their Influencing Factors in Contemporary China.

Although the Chinese government has shifted from a one-child policy to a two-child policy (allowing a couple to have up to two children) since 2016 in response to the aging population, the policy results have been unsatisfactory. This is the first paper to systematically investigate the factors influencing residents’ intentions to have a second child. The research focuses on the perspective of individual, family, and social characteristics based on the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) from 2017 to 2018. Three machine learning methods are used in conjunction with logistic regression to reveal that the intention of having a second child increases heavily with age, more siblings in the family of origin, and better health. The family income, which is currently the focus of the literature and is statistically significant, is only sixth most important. This study further reveals differences between genders: Women with a lower level of education and religious beliefs prefer to have a second child, whereas for men, non-agricultural hukou and marriage are the position factors. The results of this study also illustrate the importance of future research focusing on the relationship of individuals to their family of origin and districts.

Parents’ and older siblings’ socialization of younger siblings’ empathy: a sample case in China

In 2016, China officially ended its One-Child policy and started allowing urban married couples to have up to two children. Beginning in 2021, Chinese policy officially began encouraging couples to have up to three children in response to low birth rates and increasing needs for workers and care providers in an aging country. Siblinghood in China has thus begun to re-emerge as a social phenomenon among urban Chinese. Given the important role sibling relationships have in the development of empathy, this relaxation and policy shift provides a unique context in which to investigate family dynamics among two-child families where there is a large age gap between children. Guided by family systems theory, the current study examined family level factors that help socialize younger sibling’s empathy in mainland China by testing direct associations between autonomy supportive parenting, marital quality, coparenting, and secondborn children’ (ages 3–5) empathy in mainland China. Direct and indirect associations with secondborn children’s empathy via older sibling’s relationship quality with their younger sibling were also tested. Results revealed coparent conflict and positive sibling relationship were directly associated with younger sibling’s empathy; further, marital quality and coparent support were indirectly associated with younger sibling’s empathy via positive sibling relationship. Parents, educators, and practitioners may consider addressing family level factors as an avenue for promoting younger sibling’s empathy development.

Chinese childbearing decision-making in mainland China in the post-one-child-policy era.

In 2016, China enacted its two-child policy, further lifted to a three-child policy in 2021, in response to low birth rates and imbalanced sex ratios resulting from the almost 40-year one-child policy. Despite this, China's birthrate is at a historic low as fewer parents are having children. Now more than ever, inductive explorations are needed to understand what motivates Chinese parents to have first and second children in the post-one-child policy era, particularly explorations that situate individual decision-making within the larger social context. Individual and relational choices occur in larger sociopolitical contexts. Understanding these "personal" actions involves considering how micro and macro processes inform each other. In this study, we elicited qualitative responses from Chinese mothers (N=117) with two children in early childhood (firstborn ≤8years old) from Liao Ning province. Most mothers were well educated, employed, and married to children's fathers. Using inductive thematic analysis procedures, we coded qualitative responses about the factors that motivated mothers to have first and second children. Our data revealed that (a) mothers expressed different reasons for having firstborns compared to secondborns, and (b) decision-making occurred against a backdrop of interacting micro-level and macro-level influences (e.g., cultural norms, national policy changes). In particular, mothers described the decision to have secondborns as more deliberative than with firstborns, considering long-term benefits siblinghood and shared demands of elderly caregiving. If efforts to stimulate the national birthrate are likely to succeed, policymakers should consider micro-level as well as macro-level factors that shape mothers' childbearing decision-making.

Pricing Children, Curbing Daughters

Pricing Children, Curbing Daughters

Housing Wealth, Fertility, and Child Quality

We use changes in wealth due to house price changes to test the effect of wealth on fertility and child quality in the context of Chinese fertility policies. We find, even in those situations where the one-child policy is not in effect, that wealth increases do not lead to increased fertility in urban areas, and have only a minuscule effect in the rural areas. However, a rise in housing wealth leads to increased expenditure on the education of children for households in both rural and urban areas (although different types of expenditure) and increased height of children in rural areas. Following Becker (1960), increased wealth shifts the tradeoff between child quality and quantity in favor of the former.