High-speed Rail In China Research Articles

Short-term high-speed rail passenger flow prediction by integrating ensemble empirical mode decomposition with multivariate grey support vector machine

Short-term prediction of high-speed rail (HSR) passenger flow provides a daily ridership estimation for the near future, which is critical to HSR planning and operational decision making. This paper proposes a new methodology that integrates ensemble empirical mode decomposition with multivariate support vector machines (EEMD-MSVM). There are four steps in this hybrid forecasting approach: (i) explore the correlation of multivariate HSR passenger flows at various stations based on archived data; (ii) decompose empirical modes of historical passenger flows for each HSR station, using EEMD to generate a number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a trend term; (iii) predict the IMF for each correlated station pair using MSVM; and (iv) reconstruct the refined IMF components to predict daily multivariate HSR passenger flows. The proposed EEMD-MSVM approach is demonstrated with multiple OD pairs along the Wuhan-Guangzhou HSR in China. Results from various origin-destination pairs, show that the EEMD-MSVM approach outperforms the existing ensemble empirical mode decomposition with grey support vector machine approach (EEMD-GSVM). With the multivariate approach, the mean absolute percentage error in demand prediction is reduced by 13.9%, 1.2%, 1.0%, 2.0%, and 2.7% and the mean absolute deviation is reduced by 78.8, 38.0, 4.4, 4.6, and 3.9, between these OD pairs respectively. Such increase in short-term demand prediction accuracy can significantly improve HSR service planning, operations, and revenue management in the real world.

Can the Opening of High-speed Rail Promote Green Innovation Behavior of Enterprises: Evidence from China

This study utilizes the quasi-natural experiment of China's high-speed rail opening and examines the impact on corporate green innovation using green patent data from Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies between 2007 and 2021.The difference-in-difference model is employed to empirically test the relationship between high-speed rail opening and corporate green innovation, as well as to analyze the underlying mechanisms driving this relationship. The research findings indicate a significant positive association between China's high-speed rail opening and enterprise green innovation, indicating an improvement in green innovation levels following the introduction of high-speed rail. The impact mechanism involves the enhancement of government governance capacity and overall factor productivity within enterprises. Further sub-sample test found that the opening of high-speed rail promoted enterprises' green innovation mainly in enterprises with low environmental uncertainty and enterprises in central and western regions.

Transportation infrastructure and economic growth: Evidence from "new nighttime light data" in the Yangtze River Delta.

The enhancement and improvement of China's high-speed rail network plays a crucial role in promoting sustainable economic growth in the region. By utilizing "new nighttime light data" in China's Yangtze River Delta from 2003 to 2018, this paper investigates the impact of HSR on economic growth using a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) model. The operations of high-speed rail have a significant and positive impact on economic growth, which often becomes more apparent with a certain time delay. The operations of high-speed rail have a significant positive impact on the development of large, mega, and super-cities, with this impact becoming more pronounced as the size of the city increases. Furthermore, high-speed rail operations have a significant influence on the economic growth of cities that largely rely on secondary and tertiary industries, in contrast to the primary industry. The promotion of economic growth by high-speed rail is primarily achieved through three transmission channels: low carbon emissions, labor force agglomeration, and innovation. Over time, high-speed rail will progressively reduce economic disparities between regions and facilitate a trend towards regional economic coordination or convergence. This study makes a valuable contribution to the exploration of pathways towards achieving economic growth.

Can high-speed railway promote regional market integration? Evidence from China

The rapid development of high-speed railways is an important manifestation of transportation modernization in China, and has a huge influence on the integration of China's regional market. The predominance of passenger transport in China's high-speed rail (HSR) network makes it difficult to explain the influence of HSR on regional market integration issues in the previous research paradigm of economic geography based on the iceberg costs theory. Therefore, this paper constructs a conceptual framework of HSR affecting regional market integration in terms of market access, information flow, and substitution transportation. It also empirically tests the HSR effect of market integration using prefecture-level data from 2003 to 2013 in China. The results show that HSR has a significantly positive effect on China's regional market integration, and the three influencing mechanisms exist. However, the influence of HSR on regional market integration is different due to the heterogeneity of economic development and population scale.

Laos-China Cooperation in the Construction of High Speed Railway: A Perspective of Foreign Policy

This article addresses Laos' motivations for working with China on their proposed high-speed train and railway projects. Due to its lack of access to land channels, Laos chooses to conduct its commercial and tourism cooperation with China through the BRI initiative, which is China's foreign strategy in establishing relations with ASEAN nations. We use the theory of foreign policy (FPA) to address several justifications for Laos' participation in China's high-speed rail and fast train projects. We found five reasons why Laos should join China: First, China's location allows for communication with landlocked Laos through the construction of the Laos High Speed Railway; second, China's demographics can help Laos become more prosperous; third, Laos relies on China's natural resources to match the Lao population's consumption level; fourth, China's political system has improved bilateral ties with Laos giving Laos hope that long-term collaboration may be created with China through the construction of transportation infrastructure in the form of the China-Laos High-Speed Railway; and fifth, Laos's economic prowess can assist with commerce and provide funding for growth between Laos and China.

Cascading Delays for the High-Speed Rail Network Under Different Emergencies: A Double Layer Network Approach

High-speed rail (HSR) has formed a networked operational scale in China. Any internal or external disturbance may deviate trains' operation from the planned schedules, resulting in primary delays or even cascading delays on a network scale. Studying the delay propagation mechanism could help to improve the timetable resilience in the planning stage and realize cooperative rescheduling for dispatchers. To quickly and effectively predict the spatial-temporal range of cascading delays, this paper proposes a max-plus algebra based delay propagation model considering trains' operation strategy and the systems' constraints. A double-layer network based breadth-first search algorithm based on the constraint network and the timetable network is further proposed to solve the delay propagation process for different kinds of emergencies. The proposed model could deal with the delay propagation problem when emergencies occur in sections or stations and is suitable for static emergencies and dynamic emergencies. Case studies show that the proposed algorithm can significantly improve the computational efficiency of the large-scale HSR network. Moreover, the real operational data of China HSR is adopted to verify the proposed model, and the results show that the cascading delays can be timely and accurately inferred, and the delay propagation characteristics under three kinds of emergencies are unfolded.

Dynamic network relationship between transportation and urban economy: A case study of China's high-speed rail as a new transportation technology

High-speed rail (HSR) stands as one of the most significant transportation technological advancements in the global railway industry over the past half-century, attracting considerable scholarly attention regarding its impact on urban economies. However, researches remain rare as to the dynamic evolution of the HSR netwok and the economic network, as well as their relationship. Our research tackles this issue by employing social network analysis (SNA) and a complex gravity model to construct China's HSR network and economic network. Furthermore, we apply the quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) and nonlinear Granger causality test to analyze the relationship between the two networks. Results reveal a significant correlation between China's HSR and economic network from 2008 to 2020, exhibiting heterogeneity in nonlinear causal relationships across different spatial scales. Notably, the strength of the relationship between the HSR netwok and the economic network follows an inverted “U” shape. This correlation is more pronounced within smaller administrative boundaries than inter-administrative regions. Additionally, the HSR netwok and the economic network in China's central and western regions tend to foster mutually reinforcing patterns of evolution. These findings shed light on the interactive processes between HSR development and economic growth in China, providing a foundation for policy formulation in emerging economies seeking to develop a new transportation technology and promote synergistic economic growth.

Factors influencing the construction cost of high-speed rail in China and comparative analysis with other countries

In recent years, with the rapid development of the social economy, the high-speed rail industry of all countries in the world has been improved to some extent. In the construction process of high-speed rail, construction cost is very important. It is highly valued by many infrastructure companies or teams. It not only serves as the foundation of the construction process but also can promote the whole project. This paper mainly studies the factors that affect high-speed railway construction costs in China and compares them with other countries. Based on the data, the geographical differences, labor force and technical standards change will have an impact on the cost of the construction, these three key factors deserve to be considered.

Understanding the Development of High-Speed Rail in China

In this paper, we study the key factors affecting China’s high-speed rail development using a case study methodology and following the perspective of catch-up cycles. In addition to factors such as windows of opportunities and responses identified in the extant literature, we found that the focal organization’s strategic intent is the most important driving force. Strategic intents, opportunities, and responses, all change over time. This finding has important theoretical implications, and indicates the importance of effective coordination by the focal organization in the process of catching up in complex technology systems such as high-speed rail.

Does China's high-speed rail network promote inter-city technology transfer? ——A multilevel network analysis based on the electronic information industry

Even though the influence of high-speed rail (HSR) on innovation has drawn sustained attention, few studies have investigated the effect on technology transfer (TT), and even fewer studies have examined the structural dependency between transportation and TT. Using the exponential random graph model for multilevel networks, this study attempts to provide an in-depth analysis of the impact from a two-level network perspective, with the associated network configuration providing insights into how HSR shapes intercity TT. Our findings suggest that HSR facilitates inter-city TT and promotes innovation convergence. Specifically, cities with a higher degree centrality are more active in exporting technology rather than absorbing it. In contrast, the betweenness and closeness centrality of cities have no significant effect on TT. The effect of HSR, which is apparent among cities with direct connections along HSR lines, decays significantly in cities with indirect connections. This work allows for the identification of the conducive HSR layout for promoting inter-regional TT.

Transportation infrastructure and eco-environmental quality: Evidence from China's high-speed rail.

Ecological civilization construction is China's national development strategy, and improving the urban eco-environmental quality is the key to accelerating this strategy, while the high-speed rail (HSR) opening is an important factor affecting the urban eco-environmental quality. Using panel data of 290 cities in China from 2004 to 2020, this study explores the impact of HSR opening on urban eco-environmental quality and its heterogeneity from the perspective of direct impact and interaction between HSR connected cities. Compared with cities without HSR service, the eco-environmental quality of cities with HSR service has significantly increased by 0.023 standard deviations, which is about 4.11% of the total change in urban eco-environmental quality in the same period. Second, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between eco-environmental quality and urban space expansion. Third, the impact of HSR on eco-environmental quality is heterogeneous, mainly manifested in different cities and urban agglomerations. It means that the government should focus on the differences in the economic foundation and development characteristics of various regions, steadily push forward the construction and operation of the HSR, and speed up the renovation of existing lines to help the green development of cities. The research results provide a policy basis for the government to handle the relationship between infrastructure construction and eco-environmental quality, and effectively promote green sustainable development.

Dams, cropland productivity, and economic development in China

We use satellite, hydrology, and census data from 1992 to 2014 to quantify dams' impacts on cropland productivity and economic development in China. We exploit a county's river gradient and elevation to address the endogeneity of dam placement. We find that an additional dam reduces a local county's cropland net primary production (NPP) and nighttime light (NTL)-based GDP by 13.7% and 2.9%, respectively. We also find that an additional dam increases a downstream county's NPP by 0.5% and has a positive yet insignificant impact on a downstream county's NTL-based GDP. Dynamic analysis shows that the positive impact of dams on downstream counties' cropland productivity and economic development takes around ten years to realize. We also find that dams have smaller positive impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth than China's high-speed rail (HRS) construction.

The Impact of High-speed Railway Opening on Economic Growth in Heilongjiang Province

With the arrival of China's high-speed rail era, it greatly shortens the distance of time and space, and speeds up the flow of economic factors. This paper selects the panel data of 11 prefecture-level cities in Heilongjiang Province except the provincial capital from 2014 to 2021, and uses the multi-period difference-difference method to analyze the impact of high-speed railway construction on the urban economic development of Heilongjiang Province. The results show that in the short term, high-speed railway construction can promote the economic development of Heilongjiang Province.

How does the opening of China's high-speed rail affect the spatial mismatch of haze pollution and economic growth?

A better reconciliation of haze pollution and economic growth has become the social consensus in China. The development of China's economy and air quality will be significantly impacted by its efforts to create high-speed rail (HSR). Based on panel data from 265 prefecture-level cities in China from 2003 to 2019, this paper investigates how the opening of HSR affects the spatial mismatch of haze pollution and economic growth by using the spatial mismatch index model, multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model, and intermediary effect model. We find that the spatial mismatch in China has an overall decreasing trend. And its spatial agglomeration is dominated by low levels. Further empirical analysis shows that HSR opening can effectively restrain the spatial mismatch. Even after some robustness tests and endogenous treatment, the conclusion is still valid. In addition, population density, FDI, and industrial structure are also explicit factors affecting the spatial mismatch. Second, there is significant heterogeneity in the impact. This is reflected in the fact that HSR opening can suppress the spatial mismatch of service-oriented cities and the eastern region, while other cities and regions have no noticeable effect. Third, spatial transfer of haze pollution (STHP) and balanced development of economic growth (BEG) are two important conduction paths for the opening of HSR to affect the spatial mismatch. Specifically, HSR opening can constrain the spatial mismatch by inhibiting STHP and BEG. Based on the above findings, recommendations related to promoting a better harmony between haze pollution and economic growth are proposed.

Study on characteristics and community structure of high-speed rail network centered on Shanghai

The high-speed railway is a typical representative of China 's high-speed transportation infrastructure, with typical complex network characteristics. Based on the complex network theory, this paper conducts an empirical study on a Space-P network model for high-speed train originating from Shanghai. Then the network is divided into communities by louvain algorithm. The average distance of the network is 1.76, the modularity of community division is 0.3683, and the clustering coefficient is 0.6859, which is typical of small-world network. Due to Space-P model, the network is highly connected, resulting in a relatively low modularity. To a certain extent, the network reflects the developed high-speed rail level and wide direct range of Shanghai, and also reflects the convenience of China 's high-speed rail.

High-speed rail in China: Implications for intercity commuting and urban spatial structure

The rapid growth of a high-speed rail network has stimulated intercity commuting (IC) in large metropolitan areas in China. Motivated by the need to understand the formation and impact of IC, this paper develops a model of an economy that consists of two cities: a metropolis (the main city) and a micropolis (the satellite city). Both social optimum (SO) and competitive equilibrium (CE) of the model are analyzed. We show IC arises only when the housing price at the boundary of the metropolis is no less than that of the micropolis plus the IC cost. Moreover, intercity commuters must live in micropolis, and the area that they reside is identical at both SO and CE. Because the rail station is located at the edge of the city, intercity commuters prefer living on the periphery near the station to the city center. The model is tested by a real-world case study constructed with data collected in Shanghai and Jiaxing. It is found that within our model setting, IC is always welfare-enhancing, albeit it tends to hurt the well-being of the micropolis, Jiaxing. As long as the IC cost is small enough, however, turning Jiaxing into a “sleepers’ town” could be both welfare-enhancing and Pareto-improving.

Does geographic proximity affect firms’ cross-regional development? Evidence from high-speed rail construction in China

Firms' cross-regional development is essential for their growth, with communication costs arising from geographic distance becoming a widely discussed factor. However, the causal relationship between geographic proximity and firms' cross-regional development remains inadequately underexplored. By leveraging firm registration data from 2003 to 2014, and exploiting the staggered construction of China's high-speed rail (HSR) as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper studies the effects of falling communication costs on firms' cross-regional development. HSR construction leads to an 8.6% increase in the number of firms' affiliates and a 68.6% rise in the weighted average distance between new affiliates and their headquarters. The effects are more pronounced for firms with higher performance heterogeneity and in cities with limited Internet infrastructure, suggesting that HSR construction can mitigate information asymmetry and improve monitoring. This study provides new micro-evidence for how geographic proximity promotes firms' cross-regional expansion through communication cost channels, offering implications for multiregional firms and policymakers.

As a Chinese saying goes, ‘To get rich, first pave the way’: The opening of high-speed rail and automobile consumption in China

The impact of high-speed rail (HSR) opening on residents' automobile consumption behavior is an economic issue that deserves attention. Based on monthly data on the opening of high-speed rail and the registration of automobiles in China's prefecture-level cities from 2008 to 2015, this paper uses the quasinatural experiment of high-speed rail opening, and the time-varying difference-differences (DID) method is used to analyze the impact and mechanism of the opening of China's high-speed rail on the automobile consumption behavior of consumers in prefecture-level cities. These research results show that the opening of high-speed rails significantly promotes consumers' purchase of automobiles. Specifically, it has a significant impact on the vehicle's brand (prefer joint venture brands) and color (prefer hue automobiles) as well as the payment method (prefer full payment). Furthermore, the expected increase in residents' income due to the opening of high-speed rail stimulates the sense of financial well-being (mediating mechanism), which in turn has an impact on the abovementioned automobile consumption behavior. These novel findings have a positive impact and significance on the national high-speed rail strategy, consumers' well-being, and the production and marketing strategies of automobile companies.

The adjusted passenger transportation efficiency of nine airports in China with consideration of the impact of high-speed rail network development: A two-step DEA-OLS method

This paper presents a two-step method combining data envelopment analysis (DEA) and an ordinary least squares (OLS) model to analyze the passenger transportation efficiency (PTE) of nine airports in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, China, and their evolution trends from 2008 to 2019. As the first step, taking the mileage of China's high-speed rail (HSR) as an external variable, a three-stage DEA was employed to obtain the adjusted airport's PTE after eliminating the impact of HSR. As the second step, a single-logarithmic OLS model was used to analyze the influence of the urban economic structure on deviations in airports' PTE before and after the adjustment, providing a clear and straightforward basis for formulating and testing policies. The essential findings included the following: (1) the development of HSR mainly inhibited the PTE of most airports due to their competition but also promoted PTE in a few airports for short periods due to their partnership; (2) various factors of the urban economic structure had different impacts on the adjusted airport's PTE and determined the trend over time.

Diversification or specialization: Measuring the impact of high-speed rail connection on technological diversity in China

Technological diversification and specialization have important roles in explaining volatility, innovation, income inequality, exports, and related concerns; however, the relationships between transportation improvement and technological diversification and specialization remains unexplored. Using Chinese city-level panel data, we investigate the impact of China's high-speed rail (HSR) connection on technological diversity using the difference-in-differences method and instrumental variable regressions. The results demonstrate that HSR connection leads to reductions in technological diversity, particularly in core cities, cities along the four longest HSR lines, and cities that were initially diversified. The findings indicate that HSR connection is conducive to technological specialization rather than diversification, offering new insights for understanding the relationship between transportation improvement and innovation and determining that HSR connection spurs intra-industry knowledge spillovers more than inter-industry knowledge spillovers.