Dams, cropland productivity, and economic development in China

Abstract

We use satellite, hydrology, and census data from 1992 to 2014 to quantify dams' impacts on cropland productivity and economic development in China. We exploit a county's river gradient and elevation to address the endogeneity of dam placement. We find that an additional dam reduces a local county's cropland net primary production (NPP) and nighttime light (NTL)-based GDP by 13.7% and 2.9%, respectively. We also find that an additional dam increases a downstream county's NPP by 0.5% and has a positive yet insignificant impact on a downstream county's NTL-based GDP. Dynamic analysis shows that the positive impact of dams on downstream counties' cropland productivity and economic development takes around ten years to realize. We also find that dams have smaller positive impacts on agricultural productivity and economic growth than China's high-speed rail (HRS) construction.