China Exports Research Articles

Research on the Influence of Green Trade Barriers on China's Export and Its Coping Strategies

With the increasing awareness of global protection, green trade barriers have gradually become a factor that cannot be ignored in international trade. This paper aims to discuss the impact of green trade barriers on China's exports, and put forward corresponding countermeasures. The paper first summarizes the definition, development process and main characteristics of green trade barriers, then analyzes their impact on China's export, and finally puts forward countermeasures from the two levels of government and enterprises.

The Impact of U.S. Carbon Tariff on Chinas Exports and Welfare Based on Empirical Analysis and Game Models

This paper will begin by formulating an optimal tariff model between China and the U.S., leading us to an equilibrium point. From this vantage point, we will deduce the consequences of U.S. tariffs on China's exports and the ramifications of U.S. carbon tariffs on China's societal welfare. Next, we will develop an economic model considering the existing China-U.S. tariffs and their trading relationship. This model will help determine the influence of U.S. tariffs on China's export volume and societal welfare. In addition, we will compute the impact of U.S. tariffs on China's societal welfare and export to the U.S., factoring in China's carbon emissions per 100 yuan of GDP, and finally, concern the industrial impact of such carbon tariffs. Third, using two distinct game models, we would probe into the viability and possibility of the U.S. levying a carbon tariff on Chinese exports. The evolutionary game models reflect real-world scenarios, which point out that the U.S. will eventually apply a carbon tariff on China. Next, the dynamic game model considers different parties, Chinas government and firms, and different factors, environmental costs, and green subsidies. The model provides the circumstances in which the U.S. will levy a carbon tariff, whether China should provide a green subsidy, and whether the company should implement green production technology. Finally, we would discuss potential strategies China might adopt to navigate the challenges of the U.S. carbon tariff and examine the broader implications of such a move.

Digital economy development and export upgrading: Theoretical analysis based on Chinese experience

AbstractThe development of the digital economy in China has not only led to a revolution in science and technology and its industry transformation but also affected China's export upgrading. This article uses the provincial‐level panel data of China's export products from 2012 to 2019 to explore the impact and mechanism of digital economy development on export upgrading. The result shows that the development of the digital economy generally promotes the technical complexity of exports, which is more significant in regions with higher resource allocation efficiency. The mediation effect test finds that the development of the technology market and human capital improvement are the two basic paths of the digital economy to promote export upgrading. The conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests, such as replacing the explanatory variables and using instrumental variables.

Digital transformation by firms and the cleanliness of China's export products

This study breaks the research chain on “firm digital transformation-trade green transformation”, focusing on the effect and mechanism in firms' digital transformation on the “cleanliness” of export products. It offers theoretical and empirical support on how to respond to demand for a green transformation in trade by firms in the context of their digital transformation. First, we reveal the mechanism in the effect of firms' digital transformation on export product cleanliness at the theoretical level by extending the Stackelberg game model and constructing a variable for product cleanliness. Second, we build an index to evaluate firms' digital transformation by matching data on A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2016 with a China Customs firm database and quantitatively analyze it with a machine learning algorithm. Combined with the measured export product cleanliness index, this mechanism is empirically tested with standardized measurement methods. Overall, we find that firms' digital transformation can significantly contribute to improvement in export product cleanliness. This finding remains robust to a series of tests and decomposition of digital transformation into various dimensions. The mechanism test found that the digital transformation of firms mainly promotes the improvement of export product cleanliness through the channels of increasing digital factor inputs, promoting green technology innovation, improving environmental management performance and achieving economies of scale. Heterogeneity analysis shows that digital transformation better facilitates the promotion of cleaner exported products from firms certified with ISO14001, whose primary export destinations are countries outside of the EU, and with high disclosure quality. Furthermore, digital transformation has a structural effect on the improvement of export product cleanliness in the context of urban disclosure of environmental information.

Research on Export Flow and Potential of Agricultural Products in China Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

The MLR (multiple linear regression) method in machine learning algorithm is a comprehensive method to study the correlation of variables, and it is also an important measure to study the relationship between variables by using linear fitting method. By combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper will use MLR model to make an empirical analysis of the determinants of agricultural trade flow, and use the estimated parameters to calculate the agricultural trade potential of China. The results show that the economic scale and distance have an important influence on the export flow of agricultural products in China, indicating that the economic scale is an important factor affecting the export flow of agricultural products. Regional trade arrangements have dual effects of trade transfer and trade creation, and free trade arrangements have created favorable conditions for trade expansion between countries with different demand and income levels. China's exports to Russia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are in a state of deficiency, and there is still potential for developing agricultural products exports to these countries.

Analysis of the Impact of Carbon Tariffs on China's Trade

As the impact of the financial crisis deepened, on March 17, 2009, US Energy Secretary Steven Chu prepared to impose carbon tariffs on imported goods to avoid unfair competition in the US manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, in recent years, some developed countries or regions, such as the United States and the European Union, have proposed punitive tariffs on imported products from developing countries such as China and India based on carbon content under the pretext of addressing climate change. This measure has sparked widespread international discussion. Therefore, this article takes carbon tariffs as the research object and analyzes the impact of China's carbon emissions on its export trade and the impact of international emission reduction regulations and measures on China's export trade through qualitative and quantitative analysis methods. The paper is divided into 7 chapters. Chapters 1, 2, and 3 provide explanations on the relevant concepts and development trends of carbon tariffs. Carbon tariffs are essentially border tax regulatory measures with trade protectionism attributes. Chapters 4 and 5 analyze the impact of carbon tariff policies. Chapters 6 and 7 propose corresponding strategies and suggestions based on the previous analysis.

Analysis of the competitiveness and complementarity of China-Vietnam bilateral agricultural commodity trade.

Vietnam's agricultural exports to China have remained strong, with the country maintaining its position as the top destination for Agri-products. This article primarily utilizes the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) Index, and Trade Complementarity (TC) index to examine the trade comparative advantage, and the complementary of twenty major agricultural products between China and Vietnam from 2012 to 2021. The study results showed that Vietnam and China frequently exchange agricultural products. Vietnam has more stronger competitiveness than China in terms of agricultural products. China's exports to Vietnam were highly complementary to Vietnam's imports in category 0 whiles Vietnam's exports to China showed strong complementarity with China's imports in category 2. This paper analyzes the complementarity and comparative advantages of agricultural trade between China and Vietnam, and proposes informed suggestions for policy-making to promote agricultural trade between the countries. The proposed suggestions aim to expand agricultural trade between the two countries, reduce the trade imbalance, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.

Research on the Impact of ESG Performance on Corporate Exports

The development of a green and low-carbon economy has become a crucial topic in global economic advancement. China's export trade faces a complex international landscape characterized by escalating trade frictions, rising trade protectionism, and a sluggish traditional trade environment in the post-pandemic era. This paper primarily explores the relationship between the ESG performance of Chinese A-share listed companies and their export activities. Initially, it conducts a literature analysis on the impact of ESG performance on corporate exports from the perspectives of environment, social responsibility, and corporate governance. This paper conducts empirical analyses using relevant regression models to test the hypotheses. Furthermore, in examining the transmission pathways of the impact of ESG performance on corporate exports, an intermediate variable regression model is established to analyze the specific roles played by corporate innovation as a mediator. In conclusion, the findings are as follows: (1) Overall ESG performance positively influences corporate exports, indicating that better ESG performance is conducive to enhanced export activities. (2) Enterprises with superior ESG performance can promote exports by improving their innovation capabilities.

Exploring the Impact of the Digital Economy on China's Export Implied Carbon Intensity: A Provincial Panel Data Analysis

Exploiting the positive effect of digital economy on reducing the implied carbon intensity of exports is an important path to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of China's export trade. In view of this, using the Chinese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2020 to scrutinize the consequential impact and intricate mechanisms at play between these variables. Employing a robust methodology, including fixed-effects models, mediating-effects models, and threshold models, the analysis delves into the multi-faceted impact of the digital economy on export implied carbon intensity. It is found that (1) The enhancement of the digital economy can significantly reduce the implied carbon intensity of exports. (2) The digital economy further diminishes the implied carbon intensity of exports through the mediating influences of industrial structure and technological progress. (3) The relationship between the digital economy, industrial structure, and technological progress exhibits a noteworthy non-linear dynamic concerning export implied carbon intensity.

The effect of maximum residue limit standards on China's agri‐food exports: A health perspective

AbstractThis paper investigates the impact of maximum residue limit (MRL) standards of 2692 chemical substances regulated by 44 importing countries on China's agri‐food exports, disaggregated at HS 8‐digit product level over 2005–2021. We find that MRL standards for health‐threatening chemical substances facilitate China's exports of agri‐food products, while low‐hazard MRLs impede trade. Furthermore, stricter MRL standards for health‐threatening substances reduce the probability of exporting (extensive margin) while generating larger export values conditional on exporting (intensive margin). We also identify that the adjustments of fixed and variable compliance costs resulting from changes in health‐threatening and low‐hazard MRLs contribute to the heterogeneous responses on the extensive and intensive margins of exports.

Export contraction and input switching in an aging China

Whether an aging China is increasingly losing its low-cost export advantages? More importantly, which type of inputs' dynamics occurs to adapt to the above-mentioned circumstance? Using an instrumental-variable strategy, our empirical analysis finds that population aging leads to a contraction in China's export share since it causes a shortage of middle-aged workers and thereby higher labor cost. We also show that population aging leads to a substitution of labor with capital, but does not promote technology level in the context of China. Moreover, we document that the substitution of labor with capital occurs mainly in the firms with high productivity, large scale, high capital intensity, low credit constraint, high export intensity and private firms.

Breaking Barriers, Building Businesses, and International Markets: Strategies of Female Innovators in the Chinese Market

In China, which in the past was dominated by state-owned and male-led ventures, female entrepreneurs are now increasingly popular. However, the specific pathways to internationalization for female-owned firms in China and their contribution to the country’s economic growth remain unexplored. Based on the principles of the resource-based approach, the article explores the innovative strategies used by Chinese female-owned firms to overcome resource constraints, formal and informal institutional barriers to business internationalization (entering the global markets through indirect exports). The article puts forward and empirically tests 5 sets of hypotheses according to which Chinese female-owned firms are: 1) more efficient in internationalization through indirect export strategies; 2) more inclined to digital innovation; 3) not focused on innovation conversion, but rather on successful adaptation of existing offerings for international markets or efficiency gains; 4) do not prioritize innovation in communication technologies, focusing more on innovation to reach customers, build relationships and enter international markets; 5) use the female business ecosystem to obtain safer pathways to innovation, such as external partnerships or adapting existing technologies, rather than focusing on investing internal R&D with elevated risk. Within each block, 2 additional hypotheses were put forward. They consider the impact of the relevant factor (digital innovation, innovation conversion, communication innovation, internal innovation) on indirect exports and its role in mediating the relationship between female ownership and the success of business internationalization. The study is based on a sample of 2,700 Chinese firms surveyed from November 2011 to March 2013 using the World Bank Enterprise Surveys China 2012 (a comprehensive recoding was performed, adhering to established practices in quantitative research). The control variables are the location of the respondent company in the capital/province, city size and firm size. The study used two types of factor analysis – Exploratory (EFA, including Promax rotation, oblique rotation method) and Confirmatory (CFA, Alpha Cronbach test, full path analysis model, including both direct and indirect effects, Monte Carlo method). SPSS 29 software was used for the data sample and AMOS 26.0 for the modeling process. A direct positive relationship was found between female ownership and indirect exports in China and digital ecosystem innovations, as well as between communication innovations and indirect exports. A significant negative direct relationship was found between female ownership and communication innovations, between digital ecosystem innovations and indirect exports, and between internal innovations on indirect exports. It also reveals the absence of a significant direct impact of innovation conversion on indirect exports. Mediating effects were also confirmed for communication and digital ecosystem innovations; partially for internal innovations; not confirmed for innovation conversion.

Can foreign demand shocks reduce the pollution emission intensity? Evidence from exporters in China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign demand shocks on emission intensity using data from Chinese manufacturing exporters. We construct a Bartik instrument for changes in foreign demand by incorporating firms' initial specialization patterns and the portion of foreign demand changes independent of fluctuations in China's exports. We observe a significantly negative effect of increased foreign demand shocks on SO2 emission intensity (emission intensity effect), yet the overall impact on firms' SO2 emissions is minimal and statistically insignificant. Our decomposition reveals that although positive foreign demand shocks lead to increased SO2 emissions through output growth (scale effect), this effect is largely counteracted by the negative emission intensity effect. Further analysis shows that the emission intensity effect can be attributed to firms' adoption of cleaner technologies and the reallocation of product sales towards those with lower emission intensities.

Property rights protection, financing, and firm exports: the impact of China’s property law enactment

Chinese property law plays a significant role in the reforms of the Chinese economic system by establishing protective legal frameworks. This study utilizes the enactment of the Property Law in 2007 as a quasi-natural experiment and employs the difference-in-differences method to investigate the law’s impact on firm exports in China. The results indicate that firms’ exports experienced a significant increase after the law’s enactment. These findings remain robust after controlling for additional fixed effects, alternative subsamples, and measures of core variables. The law affects firm exports through two mechanisms: informal financial channels, such as trade credit with trading partners, and formal financial channels, such as borrowings from banks and other financial institutions. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that the export effect is positively related to firms that rely heavily on external financing and are not politically connected. Moreover, this correlation is accentuated in regions characterized by more conservative credit development and heightened efficiency in law enforcement. In addition, the promotional effect is more pronounced in firms exporting to high-income countries. These findings suggest that property rights protection in China significantly impacts trade and provides a comparative advantage to firms’ exports.

Export response to technical barriers to trade: evidence from high-tech exports of China to the United States

This study explores the impact of technical barriers to trade (TBTs) on China’s high-tech exports to the United States (US). We use the UN Comtrade database and the WTO/TBT-SPS Notification and Enquiry of China for the period 2003 to 2018 to quantify TBTs and estimate their effects. Overall, our findings support and are in line with the demand-enhancing promoting effects of TBTs on China’s high-tech exports, indicating that TBTs can act as a catalyst for quality upgrading. However, our findings also suggest the potential of a diminishing promoting effect, possibly caused by the negative impact from the newly imposed TBTs on exports. Our study highlights the need for policymakers and producers in China to carefully consider the impact of TBTs on their exports and invest in product upgrades to enhance their competitiveness in order to meet the increasing technical standards requirements of the US.

China's Export Trade's Effects on the Global Economy

China’s export trade’s effects on the global economy involves many aspects, including global economic growth, international trade pattern, industrial structure adjustment and so on. Therefore, it is crucial to carry out a thorough analysis of the effects of China's export trade on the world economy. This paper will use a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods to carry out the research, and at the same time use a large number of charts and graphs to analyse the data. Firstly, the size and trajectory of China's exports will be revealed by collecting and analysing a large number of statistical data, such as the organization of China's export market, the total amount of trade exports from China, China's gross domestic product, and global GDP. Secondly, the impact of China's export trade on the global economy is explored in depth through data comparison and empirical analysis. Through the review of related literature and theoretical analyses, China's export trade has an important impact on the world economy, and the future trend will be characterised by industrial upgrading, multilateral trade co-operation and service trade growth.

Processing export and firms’ social security contributions in China: The role of supply chain pressure

This paper investigates the effects of processing export on firms’ social security contributions. A consistent pattern emerges that processing exporters in China exhibit higher actual contributions relative to ordinary exporters. This finding is intriguing, as processing exporters have been found to be inferior on various margins, such as wages and productivity. We propose and test a potential mechanism from a labor standard perspective, supply chain pressure, where processing exporters are compelled by downstream importers to adhere to certain codes of conduct in order to avoid reputation damages. We discuss endogeneity problems arising from various sources that may affect the validity of the proposed mechanism, and adopt instrumental variable estimation to address any unobserved concerns. Moreover, despite the unquantifiability of supply chain pressure, supportive evidence is found as pure-assemblers, processing exporters in high-exposure industries, those with destinations in developed countries and those in export-intensive regions exhibit relatively higher contributions, as predicted by the theory. These findings also negate competing hypotheses from the traditional labor cost perspective. Furthermore, non-state-owned, small, and low-paying firms are more susceptible to supply chain pressure than their respective counterparts. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the behavioral differences between processing and ordinary exporters.

Trade-war Tariffs and Supply Chain Trade

Abstract Although Chinese exports to the United States hit an all-time high in 2022, it would be incorrect to conclude that the U.S.–China trade war had no effects on trade. By exploiting fine product-level information on trade war tariffs, this paper demonstrates how the trade war diminished China's exports to the United States in tariff-impeded products, while expanding opportunities for exports from other countries in a fashion that had some systematic characteristics. First, the impact of the trade war tariffs was not immediate, as trade responses took place with a lag. Second, the responses to trade-war tariffs were heterogenous across countries and regions, with finer distinctions by product categories. Finally, trade that could be viewed as highly tied to global value chains (GVCs), such as trade in information and communication technology products, exhibited stronger reactions to the imposition of trade-war tariffs. These responses, and their implications for the organization of global supply chains, are discussed considering current trade concerns.

Does geopolitical risk affect exports? Evidence from China

Geopolitical conflicts and power games among major nations present substantial challenges to cross-border trade and global economic development; however, the existing literature has given limited attention to the underlying macroimpact mechanisms, especially the pivotal role of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper utilizes export data spanning 2003–2021 to empirically investigate the influence of geopolitical risk on China's exports and unveil its specific internal mechanisms. The findings reveal that China's exports are negatively affected when its trading partners are exposed to geopolitical risk. Notably, China's OFDI is instrumental in mitigating the adverse effects of geopolitical risk on exports. Moreover, the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of geopolitical risk on China's exports is more significant in non-Belt and Road countries than in Belt and Road countries. Furthermore, the impact of geopolitical risk on exports also shows significant differences before and after the 2008 financial crisis.

The impact of intellectual property articles on the quality of export products: Based on text analysis of China's trade agreements

In late 2019, Article 24 of the China State Council's Guiding Opinions on Promoting High-quality Trade Development emphasized protection and construction of intellectual property rights and international cooperation and active participation in establishing relevant international rules. This study examined the influence of intellectual property field in regional trade agreements on the quality of China's export products by constructing theoretical and empirical model. By calculating the “Agreement Coverage Rate” and “Legal Commitment Rate” of intellectual property articles, the relationship between the articles of intellectual property and the quality of China's export products is tested based on the OLS regression of fixed effects model using panel data of export trade from China to 15 treaty partners. The robustness of the empirical results is tested using instrumental variable and other methods. The study found that intellectual property articles in bilateral agreement significantly improved the quality of export products, the promotion effect of Agreement Coverage Rate is often greater than that of Legal Commitment Rate, and this effect is realized through the R&D effect of importing countries.