Real Estate In China Research Articles

The History of China’s Real Estate Market and The Risks It Faces

Today, China's real estate market is facing various crises, and the development of real estate market contributed a lot to the growth of China's economy. Therefore, it is crucial to understand the Chinese real estate market and the problems it faces today. This paper briefly analyzes the history of China's real estate market and positively affirms the contribution of the real estate market to China's economy by analyzing the data. In addition, this paper also analyzes the dangers faced by China's real estate market based on the current market conditions in China and discusses possible solutions. Based on these analyses, this paper suggest that people need to pay more attention to the real estate market and highlights the significance of real estate market to the Chinese economy.

Dynamics and Driving Mechanism of Real Estate in China’s Small Cities: A Case Study of Gansu Province

(1) Background: China is beginning to see increasingly complex real estate development dynamics as urbanization, industrialization and globalization advance. As a key driver of economic and social development in China’s cities, real estate has created prosperity while facing the risk of capitalization and a “hard landing”, making it increasingly difficult to bring it under control. (2) Methods: a new approach that integrates “evolution dynamics–driving mechanism–policy design” is constructed based on the Boston Consulting Group matrix, exploratory spatial data analysis, GIS and Geodetector, and this paper empirically studies the dynamics and driving mechanism of real estate development based on the case study of small county-level cities in Gansu, China. (3) Results: Firstly, real estate development in Gansu is characterized by significant spatial differentiation, heterogeneity and autocorrelation, and its distribution pattern comes into being from unsynchronized macroeconomic, population, social, industrial, institutional and policy development interweaved with the real estate control. Secondly, the real estate is diversified in spatiotemporal evolution models, and the cold and hot cities of different models are in quite different geographical patterns with high spatial agglomeration. Thirdly, there are many driving factors affecting the distribution patterns in real estate. These factors are in complex relationships and they are classified into three categories of “Scale–Contribution–Comprehensive”-oriented driving factor and three sub-categories of “Key–Important–Auxiliary” factors. Fourthly, the factors show large differences in the interaction effects, with the real estate industry scale influencing factors being dominated by bifactor enhancement and the economic contribution influencing factors being dominated by non-linear enhancement. Notably, factors such as permanent resident population, urbanization and government revenue have a strong direct influence on the industry scale and economic contribution of real estate, and factors such as expenditure, output value of industry, urbanization rate and number of secondary schools all have a strong interactive influence. (4) Conclusions: The cities are divided into four policy areas of comprehensive development, contribution improvement, scale growth and free decision. Furthermore, differentiated and adaptive measures are proposed for each zoning, which significantly improves the accuracy and synergy of urban real estate management.

Real estate climate index and aggregate stock returns: Evidence from China

We show that China's real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI's predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small market capitalization and low momentum. For a typical mean-variance investor, RECI's predictive power may provide an additional utility gain of 3.41%. We discuss three potential sources of RECI's predictive ability and present the corresponding evidence, including the cash flow channel, the firm fundamental channel, and the investment substitution channel.

China's real estate market reform and development path

China's real estate market has made an important contribution to economic and social development and has attracted widespread attention. The real estate market is not only concerned with housing problems, but also closely related to finance, residents and public services, and has become an important factor affecting economic and social development. This paper analyzes the main reasons driving the development of China's real estate market and discusses the possible problems. The results show that China's real estate market is in urgent need of reform and innovation to solve some existing contradictions, so as to promote high-quality economic development. Finally, this paper provides some suggestions for real estate development.

The problems and suggestions of Beijing’s real estate market

China's real estate market has been fully developed, but there are also many problems. To solve these problems properly is of great practical significance to the healthy development of real estate market. Taking Beijing's real estate market as an example, this paper finds that Beijing's real estate market has some problems such as high price and real estate speculation. By canceling school district housing and adjusting housing price, the problems in real estate market can be effectively alleviated and the sustainable development of real estate market can be promoted. The analysis of this paper is beneficial to the high-quality development of China's real estate market.

The problems and suggestions of real estate development: Evidence from Shanghai

The development of real estate not only affects the sustainable development of economy and society, but also is closely related to people's life. China's real estate development has received a lot of attention, especially in big cities. Taking the real estate in Shanghai as an example, this paper deeply analyzes the possible problems in the development of Shanghai real estate, including the high housing price and the fact that the house has become a financial product. We found that limiting the number of purchases and investigating buyers' sources of finance could help ease Shanghai's housing problems.

Research on the design and legislation of China's real estate tax system

In the context of the socialist economic system in the new era, real estate tax has become the focus of attention from all walks of life. For a long time, China's real estate tax has been unbalanced in structure, the scope of collection is limited, and the initiative of local governments is insufficient, which has become a problem that needs to be solved in an all-round way to promote real estate tax. With the promotion of the pilot real estate tax in the two places, we can learn lessons from it to pave the way for the comprehensive promotion in the future, and at the same time, we can see that the real estate tax has a direct impact on the stability of local government revenue sources and the stability of real estate market prices, and also has important significance for the improvement of China's tax system and income redistribution.

Operating ecology and financial risk analysis of the real estate industry——Empirical analysis based on SWOT-PEST analysis and the F-Probit model

In the context of "no speculation" in China, the survival environment of real estate developers is increasingly complex, and the real estate industry has been declining. Based on this, this paper uses SWOT-PEST analysis to study the business ecology of China's real estate industry, and it uses the F score model to analyze the financial risk of 9 real estate enterprises, and finally uses the Probit regression model and stability test to analyze the influencing factors of profits and total assets of the real estate industry. After studying, the conclusions are as follows: (1) China's real estate industry is still not over despite the downturn. (2) the financial risk of most real estate enterprises is increasing year by year. Although there is no bankruptcy crisis, it should not be underestimated. (3) the liquidity level and cumulative profitability of enterprise assets are important factors affecting the assets and profits of enterprises.

Contributors

Contributors

Analysis of Real Estate Industry Based on H-P Filter and Tobit Model—— cited 3,614 trading days for 15 companies

As an industry to enhance the national economy and improve people's lives, it is of great significance to accurately analyze the stock price of the real estate industry. Based on this, this paper takes 13 listed companies in the Chinese real estate industry as an example, using the H-P filtering method, OLS regression, and Tobit model to analyze the price of the real estate industry. There are three main research results: (1) After HP filtering analysis, the long-term trend and cyclical fluctuation curve of the stock prices of listed companies in the real estate industry are steep, indicating that China's real estate industry's real estate industry market fluctuates greatly. (2) When making a model prediction, the average daily price of each stock obtained after the Tobit test is the same as that of the OLS prediction, indicating that the core model also has good empirical robustness. (3) During the heterogeneity analysis of stock price, it is found that the regression model fits the residential development industry better than other industries.

China Real Estate Price and Stock Market Volatility during COVID-19

Purpose: This study examined the response of stock prices on the China Stock Exchange (SSE) and Real Estate prices to COVID-19 using an event study approach and the GARCH model. Methodology: In this study, the dimensions and key components of the use of large data obtained from the Internet of Things (IoT) in an industry's supply chain are investigated as a case study. Finally, a model for implementing an agile and lean supply chain based on IoT data analysis to improve the supply chain performance of these industries during emergency drug distribution during critical conditions is presented. Findings: We measure volatility spillovers by defining the volatility of each sector in the SSE index. In this study, we investigate the volatility of China stock market. Furthermore, we analyze the dynamic connectedness during COVID-19 pandemic periods to identify the changes in their relationship following the two categories. These empirical findings have several important implications for portfolio managers, policymakers, and investors. Originality/Value: This paper focuses on investigating the impacts of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the China stock market volatility from a GHARCH and VAR model point of view. The GHARCH model used proves that during the COVID-19 pandemic, stock price volatility and real estate price volatility increases and lead to a decrease in abnormal returns. The empirical findings also validate the efficient market hypothesis theory related to the study of events and the theory of financial behavior related to uncertainty.

Empirical evidence of risk contagion across regional housing markets in China

This study constructed regular vine copula models to investigate risk contagion across China's regional housing markets, which has recently garnered substantial attention in academic and practical domains. We utilised the Chinese monthly price indices of new commercial housing sales from 2006 to 2019. We found that the housing markets within the three primary Chinese urban agglomerations have tail dependencies, thereby implying the tendency for these markets to experience extreme market situations together. Therefore, these housing markets share risk contagion. Furthermore, China's four first-tier cities—Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen—drive regional market risk contagion. Market risk alternately diffuses across the adjacent major housing markets and expands from these first-tier cities to their surrounding areas. These findings suggest that risk contagion should be carefully considered in developing regulation policies and making investment decisions associated with China's real estate markets.

The Development Status and Trend of China's Real Estate Economy

The Development Status and Trend of China's Real Estate Economy

Factors affect the housing prices in China: a systematic review of papers indexed in Chinese Science Citation Database

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the factors that affect housing prices as per Chinese articles indexed in the Chinese Science Citation Database (CSCD). There were different foci regarding what drove housing prices in China in Chinese articles, and international journal articles in English. As most previous English articles only threw light on international research, it motivated the researchers to systematically review Chinese literature’s factors that affected housing prices in China.Design/methodology/approachThis paper reviewed housing price research articles indexed in the two largest Chinese academic research databases: the CSCD and China Knowledge Infrastructure Engineering Database (CNKI.NET). It systematically collected the data and adopted descriptive analysis techniques and synthesis.FindingsThis research reviewed the literature published from 2015 to 2020 and revealed some unique factors affecting China's housing prices. For example, research focused on administrative aspects such as macroeconomic regulation and control (often known as macro control). Authors of Chinese articles suggested that the two-child policy affected housing prices, which differed from that in the English journal articles. The research results implied that researchers should read top Chinese journals on top of good international journals when they study China's real estate market in the future.Research limitations/implicationsBecause the domestic real estate market started late, domestic real estate transaction data and real estate-related statistics are more difficult to obtain. The research is mostly based on the relationship between supply and demand, government policy and individual consumer factors, and the sample has a short time span.Practical implicationsAs China is a planned economy country, administrative factors are one main factor that affects the housing price. There were a significant number of articles in Chinese that considered this factor to be the main driver of the real estate price. It included government investment and macro-control, i.e. direct government intervention to cool down the overheated economy. Yet, there are few English articles that threw light on this factor including the commodity housing supply and government behaviour that affect housing price. The second-child policy, which is unique in China, also played an important role in the determination of the housing price. In the articles indexed in CNKI, the second-child rate, willingness to have a second child or having a second child were mentioned in the Chinese articles but not the English ones.Social implicationsIn this paper, the economic, social, administrative and environmental factors were summarised, which basically covered all the factors affecting housing prices. The administrative factors were a special group of factors that affect the housing price because of the country's planned economic system. Secondly, it provided useful information to real estate development enterprises in China. To make a correct investment and management decision, real estate development enterprises must understand the actual situation and possible problems of the industry. In this study, we analysed the research literature on the real estate industry in China for the period from 2015 to 2020 one by one and determined the influencing factors of the housing price, which provided references for effective cost control. Thirdly, it allows the public to understand and grasp the real estate industry. As the housing price has been continuously increasing, the public pays increasing attention to the real estate industry. Through the literature analysis of the impact of real estate prices, this paper revealed the elements of house price expenses, which makes it convenient for ordinary people to understand the real estate industry.Originality/valueThis study allows foreigners who do not know Chinese to know more about factors that drove housing prices from the Chinese perspective. It also provides insights to overseas developers who wish to enter the property market in China. The results can be generalised to other non-English-speaking real estate research.

Credit ratings and financialized political capitalism in a Chinese development zone

China’s state driven urbanization and the revenues earned through conversion of land from rural (legally non-commodified) to urban (legally commodified) status have been studied intensively. What makes this new urban land valuable is less discussed in the context of financializaton. Through a study of bond financing in one of China’s “national level new areas”, Tianfu New Area, on the outskirts of Chengdu, south-western China, this paper argues that financialization is not only created through conversion of land, but also through the capitalization of perceived political favour. The link between state and market is frequently conceptualized as consisting of non-transparent vested semi-corrupt networks between the state and well-connected state owned or private enterprises. We argue that an additional link exists between state and market through financialized political capitalism. This is a system where certain narratives and interpretations of policy suggest an implicit guarantee of bailouts of those debtors who are perceived to be politically important. These narratives and perceptions of political ranking become factors in determining credit ratings and issuing bonds both on the Chinese and the global market and thus the creation of capital based on real estate in China.

Discussion on the Sustainable Development of China's Real Estate Economy

Discussion on the Sustainable Development of China's Real Estate Economy

Real estate expansion and manufacturing wage increase in China: From the perspective of labor reallocation

The massive expansion of China's real estate sector has raised manufacturing wage through the channel of reallocating low-skilled labor from manufacturing sectors to the real estate sector. Using data of manufacturing firms in 35 major cities from 2000–2007, we find that the expansion of the real estate sector resulted in higher manufacturing wage. Additionally, we find that this positive effect was more pronounced among labor-intensive firms, among non-SOEs, and among firms in cities with a low development level of the labor market. By investigating the occupation choice of rural-to-urban migrant workers, we find that real estate expansion made migrant workers less likely to choose manufacturing jobs while more likely to choose construction jobs, which further confirms the labor reallocation story.

Research on China's Real Estate Economic Fluctuation and Financial Risk Prevention

Research on China's Real Estate Economic Fluctuation and Financial Risk Prevention

The protection of the bona fide acquiror of real estate in China

The bona fide acquisition of immovable property from an unauthorized alienator is usually understood in China as its acquisition from a person whose right is mistakenly registered in the register of real estate rights, due to the reasonable confidence of a bona fide acquirer in the registration record, payment of a rationally justified purchase price and publication of his acquisition in a manner prescribed by law. This system is based on a combination of the traditional mechanism of bona fide acquisition of movable property on the one hand, and the public reliability of the register of real estate rights on the other hand. Since there is a significant difference between the publicity of rights to real estate, which is ensured through the registration of rights to real estate, and the publicity of rights to movable property, which is ensured by its being in the actual possession of the rightholder, it is extremly important the correct interpretation of each element of the set of facts of the bona fide purchase of real estate. The author insists that in case of unreliable registration of the right to immovable property it is correct to focus on the fact of familiarization of the acquirer with the real estate register, and not with the certificate of ownership. According to the author, the determination that the transaction is a paid one should be based on the standard of judgment about a rationally justified price. The bona fide acquisition of real estate, the rights to which are subject to state registration, should be considered completed only at the time of registration of the transfer of title. The general conclusion is made that the improvement of law in the future should be aimed at the implementation of the public reliability of the register of real estate rights.

Dilemma under the Pandemic: Real Estate Economy and Land Finance in China

China's real estate sector has taken a major hit since the outbreak of COVID-19, with the once-mighty sector reeling from capital outflows from the banking sector, the collapse of property companies, and the impact of the sector on gross domestic product. This paper will start from the current situation of real estate brokers in China, take Evergrande, other real estate enterprises and some local government policies as the entry point, analyzing the relationship between land finance and real estate finance represented by local governments and central policies and economic operation.