Chief Scientist Research Articles

DEVELOPMENT AND DISSEMINATION OF AN ISRAELI FIRST RESPONDERS ADDRESSES GEOSPATIAL DATASET FOR MANAGEMENT OF EMERGENCY EVENTS

Abstract. At the last decades the awareness of the role of developing and improving the technological means in order to support better response during disasters such as earthquake and huge forest fire, became critical. Hence, the first responders agencies (Firefighters, police, Red Cross, municipality etc.) requires a geospatial dataset to manage, operate, coordinate and make their decisions based on a "common language" in order to navigate in real time, and to cooperate "on the field" in an appropriate way for saving life’s.Due to the event of huge forest fire in the Carmel Forest at the northern area in the state of Israel, the Survey of Israel promoted the development and dissemination of National First Responders Geospatial Dataset (NFRGD) to all of the first responder’s agencies and municipalities.In the State of Israel, there are more than 1.9 million buildings and 160,000 km of roads and unpaved roads, but only about 30% have an unequivocal name or official number. Since all emergency forces use navigation applications to locate, plan the route and arrive to the event area, most of the buildings and roads cannot be located by means of navigation, because there is no unique identification for them. In these cases, the forces will base their way to the event on prior acquaintance with the area of activity. This knowledge exists only in the local emergency and rescue forces. In huge events, when forces are being enlisted from other service areas to help, and they are not familiar with the local geography, they must work and communicate based on common spatial database.The main challenges of the NFRGD development were:Designing a product that will be generic to the whole of the First Responders agencies.Dissemination of the dataset in frequency that enable the First Responders agencies IT to integrate the data set in their systems.Overcome complex use cases due to the complexity of the reality representation in National Topographic Data Base.This article will describe the methodology of the geo computation and algorithms, which implemented in the development of the NFRGD. The algorithms were characterized and developed by a joint team of representatives from the first responders, the chief scientist and systems analysts of the Survey of Israel (SOI).

How do income changes impact on mental health and wellbeing for working-age adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis

Lower incomes are associated with poorer mental health and wellbeing, but the extent to which income has a causal effect is debated. We aimed to synthesise evidence from studies measuring the impact of changes in individual and household income on mental health and wellbeing outcomes in working-age adults (aged 16-64 years). For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, PsycINFO, ASSIA, EconLit, and RePEc on Feb 5, 2020, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quantitative non-randomised studies. We had no date limits for our search. We included English-language studies measuring effects of individual or household income change on any mental health or wellbeing outcome. We used Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tools. We conducted three-level random-effects meta-analyses, and explored heterogeneity using meta-regression and stratified analyses. Synthesis without meta-analysis was based on effect direction. Critical RoB studies were excluded from primary analyses. Certainty of evidence was assessed using Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020168379. Of 16 521 citations screened, 136 were narratively synthesised (12·5% RCTs) and 86 meta-analysed. RoB was high: 30·1% were rated critical and 47·1% serious or high. A binary income increase lifting individuals out of poverty was associated with 0·13 SD improvement in mental health measures (95% CI 0·07 to 0·20; n=42 128; 18 studies), considerably larger than other income increases (0·01 SD improvement, 0·002 to 0·019; n=216 509, 14 studies). For wellbeing, increases out of poverty were associated with 0·38 SD improvement (0·09 to 0·66; n=101 350, 8 studies) versus 0·16 for other income increases (0·07 to 0·25; n=62 619, 11 studies). Income decreases from any source were associated with 0·21 SD worsening of mental health measures (-0·30 to -0·13; n=227 804, 11 studies). Effect sizes were larger in low-income and middle-income settings and in higher RoB studies. Heterogeneity was high (I2=79-87%). GRADE certainty was low or very low. Income changes probably impact mental health, particularly where they move individuals out of poverty, although effect sizes are modest and certainty low. Effects are larger for wellbeing outcomes, and potentially for income losses. To best support population mental health, welfare policies need to reach the most socioeconomically disadvantaged. Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, Chief Scientist Office, and European Research Council.

A 3‐D approach to personalised nutrition

A <scp>3‐D</scp> approach to personalised nutrition

Impact of first UK COVID-19 lockdown on hospital admissions: Interrupted time series study of 32 million people.

SummaryBackgroundUncontrolled infection and lockdown measures introduced in response have resulted in an unprecedented challenge for health systems internationally. Whether such unprecedented impact was due to lockdown itself and recedes when such measures are lifted is unclear. We assessed the short- and medium-term impacts of the first lockdown measures on hospital care for tracer non-COVID-19 conditions in England, Scotland and Wales across diseases, sexes, and socioeconomic and ethnic groups.MethodsWe used OpenSAFELY (for England), EAVEII (Scotland), and SAIL Databank (Wales) to extract weekly hospital admission rates for cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory conditions (excluding COVID-19) from the pre-pandemic period until 25/10/2020 and conducted a controlled interrupted time series analysis. We undertook stratified analyses and assessed admission rates over seven months during which lockdown restrictions were gradually lifted.FindingsOur combined dataset included 32 million people who contributed over 74 million person-years. Admission rates for all three conditions fell by 34.2% (Confidence Interval (CI): -43.0, -25.3) in England, 20.9% (CI: -27.8, -14.1) in Scotland, and 24.7% (CI: -36.7, -12.7) in Wales, with falls across every stratum considered. In all three nations, cancer-related admissions fell the most while respiratory-related admissions fell the least (e.g., rates fell by 40.5% (CI: -47.4, -33.6), 21.9% (CI: -35.4, -8.4), and 19.0% (CI: -30.6, -7.4) in England for cancer, cardiovascular-related, and respiratory-related admissions respectively). Unscheduled admissions rates fell more in the most than the least deprived quintile across all three nations. Some ethnic minority groups experienced greater falls in admissions (e.g., in England, unscheduled admissions fell by 9.5% (CI: -20.2, 1.2) for Whites, but 44.3% (CI: -71.0, -17.6), 34.6% (CI: -63.8, -5.3), and 25.6% (CI: -45.0, -6.3) for Mixed, Other and Black ethnic groups respectively). Despite easing of restrictions, the overall admission rates remained lower in England, Scotland, and Wales by 20.8%, 21.6%, and 22.0%, respectively when compared to the same period (August-September) during the pre-pandemic years. This corresponds to a reduction of 26.2, 23.8 and 30.2 admissions per 100,000 people in England, Scotland, and Wales respectively.InterpretationHospital care for non-COVID diseases fell substantially across England, Scotland, and Wales during the first lockdown, with reductions persisting for at least six months. The most deprived and minority ethnic groups were impacted more severely.FundingThis work was funded by the Medical Research Council as part of the Lifelong Health and Wellbeing study as part of National Core Studies (MC_PC_20030). SVK acknowledges funding from the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE – The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. BG has received research funding from the NHS National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), the Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Asthma UK, the British Lung Foundation, and the Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing strand of the National Core Studies programme.

Risk of arterial and venous thromboses after COVID-19

Risk of arterial and venous thromboses after COVID-19

Association of gamma-glutamyltransferase levels with total mortality, liver-related and cardiovascular outcomes: A prospective cohort study in the UK Biobank

SummaryBackgroundGamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) levels in the blood can be a sensitive marker of liver injury but the extent to which they give insight into risk across multiple outcomes in a clinically useful way remains uncertain.MethodsUsing data from 293,667 UK Biobank participants, the relationship of GGT concentrations to self-reported alcohol intake and adiposity markers were investigated. We next investigated whether GGT predicted liver-related, cardiovascular (CV) or all-cause mortality, and potentially improved CV risk prediction.FindingsHigher alcohol intake and greater waist circumference (WC) were associated with higher GGT; the association was stronger for alcohol with evidence of a synergistic effect of WC. Higher GGT concentrations were associated with multiple outcomes. Compared to a GGT of 14.5 U/L (lowest decile), values of 48 U/L for women and 60 U/L for men (common upper limits of ‘normal’) had hazard ratios (HRs) for liver-related mortality of 1.83 (95% CI 1.60–2.11) and 3.25 (95% CI 2.38–4.42) respectively, for CV mortality of 1.21 (95% CI 1.14–1.28) and 1.43 (95% CI 1.27–1.60) and for all-cause mortality of 1.15 (95% CI 1.12–1.18) and 1.31 (95% CI 1.24–1.38). Adding GGT to a risk algorithm for CV mortality reclassified an additional 1.24% (95% CI 0.14–2.34) of participants across a binary 5% 10-year risk threshold.InterpretationOur study suggests that a modest elevation in GGT levels should trigger a discussion with the individual to review diet and lifestyle including alcohol intake and consideration of formal liver disease and CV risk assessment if not previously done.FundingBritish Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence Grant (grant number RE/18/6/34217), NHS Research Scotland (grant number SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (grant number MC_UU_00022/2); and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (grant number SPHSU17).

Using Artificial Intelligence to Revolutionise the Patient Care Pathway in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty (ARCHERY): Protocol for the Development of a Clinical Prediction Model.

BackgroundHip and knee osteoarthritis is substantially prevalent worldwide, with large numbers of older adults undergoing joint replacement (arthroplasty) every year. A backlog of elective surgery due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and an aging population, has led to substantial issues with access to timely arthroplasty surgery. A potential method to improve the efficiency of arthroplasty services is by increasing the percentage of patients who are listed for surgery from primary care referrals. The use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, specifically machine learning, provides a potential unexplored solution to correctly and rapidly select suitable patients for arthroplasty surgery.ObjectiveThis study has 2 objectives: (1) develop a cohort of patients with referrals by general practitioners regarding assessment of suitability for hip or knee replacement from National Health Service (NHS) Grampian data via the Grampian Data Safe Haven and (2) determine the demographic, clinical, and imaging characteristics that influence the selection of patients to undergo hip or knee arthroplasty, and develop a tested and validated patient-specific predictive model to guide arthroplasty referral pathways.MethodsThe AI to Revolutionise the Patient Care Pathway in Hip and Knee Arthroplasty (ARCHERY) project will be delivered through 2 linked work packages conducted within the Grampian Data Safe Haven and Safe Haven Artificial Intelligence Platform. The data set will include a cohort of individuals aged ≥16 years with referrals for the consideration of elective primary hip or knee replacement from January 2015 to January 2022. Linked pseudo-anonymized NHS Grampian health care data will be acquired including patient demographics, medication records, laboratory data, theatre records, text from clinical letters, and radiological images and reports. Following the creation of the data set, machine learning techniques will be used to develop pattern classification and probabilistic prediction models based on radiological images. Supplemental demographic and clinical data will be used to improve the predictive capabilities of the models. The sample size is predicted to be approximately 2000 patients—a sufficient size for satisfactory assessment of the primary outcome. Cross-validation will be used for development, testing, and internal validation. Evaluation will be performed through standard techniques, such as the C statistic (area under curve) metric, calibration characteristics (Brier score), and a confusion matrix.ResultsThe study was funded by the Chief Scientist Office Scotland as part of a Clinical Research Fellowship that runs from August 2021 to August 2024. Approval from the North Node Privacy Advisory Committee was confirmed on October 13, 2021. Data collection started in May 2022, with the results expected to be published in the first quarter of 2024. ISRCTN registration has been completed.ConclusionsThis project provides a first step toward delivering an automated solution for arthroplasty selection using routinely collected health care data. Following appropriate external validation and clinical testing, this project could substantially improve the proportion of referred patients that are selected to undergo surgery, with a subsequent reduction in waiting time for arthroplasty appointments.Trial RegistrationISRCTN Registry ISRCTN18398037; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN18398037International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)PRR1-10.2196/37092

К 95-ЛЕТИЮ ВЫДАЮЩЕГОСЯ РОССИЙСКОГО УЧЁНОГО В ОБЛАСТИ ЕСТЕСТВОЗНАНИЯ ОЛЕГА ГЕОРГИЕВИЧА СОРОХТИНА (17.05.1927 – 21.07.2010)

May 17, 2022 will mark the 95th anniversary of the birth of Oleg Georgievich Sorokhtin, an outstanding Soviet and Russian scientist, geophysicist and geologist, founder of the Russian school of theory of lithospheric plate tectonics. Oleg Georgievich Sorokhtin – Doctor of Physical and Mathematical Sciences (1973), Professor (1988), Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences (1991), from 1970 to 2005 Head of the Laboratory of Theoretical Geodynamics, since 2005 Chief Scientist of the Laboratory of Geodynamics and Paleoceanology at Shirshov Institute of Oceanology.

Editorial

Editorial

Andrew Ng, AI Minimalist: The Machine-Learning Pioneer Says Small is the New Big

Andrew Ng has serious street cred in artificial intelligence. He pioneered the use of graphics processing units (GPUs) to train deep learning models in the late 2000s with his students at Stanford University, cofounded Google Brain in 2011, and then served for three years as chief scientist for Baidu, where he helped build the Chinese tech giant&#x0027;s AI group. So when he says he has identified the next big shift in artificial intelligence, people listen. And that&#x0027;s what he told IEEE Spectrum in an exclusive Q&#x0026;A. &#x2022; Ng&#x0027;s current efforts are focused on his company, Landing AI, which built a platform called LandingLens to help manufacturers improve visual inspection with computer vision. He has also become something of an evangelist for what he calls the data-centric AI movement, which he says can yield &#x201C;small data&#x201D; solutions to big issues in AI, including model efficiency, accuracy, and bias.

Ronald Bullough. 6 April 1931—20 November 2020

Ron Bullough spent most of his career at the Harwell Laboratory of the UK Atomic Energy Authority (AEA). He was a theorist with a special ability for collaboration with experimentalists. He is known for his research relating to the theory of dislocations and their role in setting the properties of metals, including their ductility and resistance to fracture and, in particular, the influence of dislocations on the development of damage during irradiation, an aspect upon which he was probably the world authority. During the latter part of his career he carried substantial administrative responsibility as Chief Scientist of the AEA while still maintaining a significant presence in fundamental research, including studies relating to the stability of strained-layer semiconductor devices.

ScienceWriters2021: Some Highlights for Science Editors et al

Although titled ScienceWriters, the annual conference of the National Association of Science Writers (NASW) and the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing (CASW) also has much to offer professionals in science editing and related realms. The following are highlights of some editorially related sessions of ScienceWriter2021, held September 28–October 8, 2021. Initially designed as a hybrid in-person and online event, with the in-person aspect in Boulder, CO, the conference was moved to online-only because of a resurgence of COVID-19. Science in a Fact-Free World: Applying Lessons from the COVID Crisis to Climate Communication By Caleb Hess A word cloud populates in real-time; near the center, words submitted most frequently appear in progressively larger fonts: Scared. Hopeless. Overwhelmed. These were the audience’s submissions when Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for the Nature Conservancy, asked for their one-word thoughts on climate change. Hayhoe’s presentation focused on the lessons gleaned from the COVID-19 pandemic about effective science communication. Specifically, it addressed how communication of politicized science can be reframed to appeal to cultural and political values. Failures in communicating about climate issues and COVID, Hayhoe stated, stem from relying excessively on data to sway people’s opinions. Instead, she said, values influence what information people are open to accepting more than data does. Hayhoe noted that in the United States, political affiliation, which signals values, is associated with the most polarization in individuals’ stances on popular issues. The most scientifically literate individuals, she said, are just better at “cherry picking” facts that fit their worldviews. This means […]

CES 2022: Less is More

AbstractScaled‐down show still delivers top‐notch exhibits and innovation aplenty.

Year-end academic review of 2021: Advances in the field of birth defect prevention and control in China as of 2021

Year-end academic review of 2021: Advances in the field of birth defect prevention and control in China as of 2021

An Interview with John M. Abowd

SummaryJohn M. Abowd is the Chief Scientist and Associate Director for Research and Methodology, US Census Bureau. He completed his AB in Economics at Notre Dame in 1973 and his PhD in Economics at University of Chicago in 1977 under Arnold Zellner. During his academic career, John has held faculty positions at Princeton, the University of Chicago, and, since 1987 at Cornell University where he is the Edmund Ezra Day Professor Emeritus of Economics, Statistics and Data Science. John was trained as a statistician and labor economist, and his economic research has focused on the rigorous empirical evaluation of labor market institutions. In the late 1990s, he began working with the Census Bureau on projects that would end up leveraging administrative and survey records into official statistical products. Through that work, he has developed a research agenda focused on issues necessary to generate those products, including data privacy, synthetic data, total error analysis, data linkage, and missing data problems, among others.

APA calls on Congress to fund robust MH care workforce

Congress has an opportunity to create a mental health system for the 21st century by funding the training and research necessary to address the growing demand for care and putting mental health on an equal footing with physical health, the chief science officer of the American Psychological Association (APA) told a congressional panel. “[W]e desperately need a diverse and robust mental health system,” Mitch Prinstein, Ph.D., told the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, according to a Feb. 1 APA news release. He noted that Medicare does not reimburse psychological graduate trainees, although it does reimburse medical residents. Graduate interns in psychology have an average of over 700 hours of direct patient care experience — “more than medical residents do,” he said. Prinstein called on Congress to reauthorize and significantly expand the Graduate Psychology Education and Minority Fellowship programs and to enact the Mental Health Professionals Workforce Shortage Loan Repayment Act, both of which would help build a stronger — and more diverse — mental health workforce. And he asked the panel to give the Department of Labor the authority to levy financial penalties against health insurers that violate the federal parity law that requires them to cover mental health issues on par with physical health issues. Without this authority, “enforcement will be almost impossible,” he said. Finally, he urged the senators to help expand the United States' investment in psychological science “so we can better understand psychopathology, develop novel treatments, and build resilience before the next stressor comes.”

COVID-19 and atherosclerosis: looking beyond the acute crisis

COVID-19 and atherosclerosis: looking beyond the acute crisis

Barry Logan, a prominent toxicologist and forensic analytical chemist, kindly spoke with BrJAC about his research into drugs of abuse, the legacy and inspiration for future

Dr Barry Logan is a world leading forensic toxicologist currently serving as Chief Scientist at NMS Labs, and Executive Director at the Center for Forensic Science Research and Education (CSFRE) in Willow Grove, Pennsylvania. He was born and completed his undergraduate and graduate education in Glasgow, Scotland, completed a postdoctoral fellowship at the University of Tennessee in Memphis TN, then served for eighteen years as State Toxicologist for the State of Washington, with an appointment at the University of Washington in Seattle. For nine of those years he also served as Director of the Washington State Crime Laboratory System, which provided services in forensic biology, toxicology, chemistry, document examination, serology, DNA analysis, firearms and crime scene support. In 2008, Logan joined the United States leading forensic toxicology and chemistry reference laboratory - NMS labs - in Pennsylvania to direct their toxicology services. In 2010 he founded the CFSRE and in 2017, established www.NPSDiscovery.org the leading clearing-house for the dissemination of newly emergent drugs in the United States. He has over 150 publications and 600 presentations in forensic toxicology and analytical chemistry, including work on the effects of methamphetamine, cocaine and marijuana on drivers, and drug caused and related death. His recent work has focused on the analytical and interpretive toxicology of novel psychoactive substances (NPS). Dr Logan’s other appointments include Executive Director of the Robert F. Borkenstein course at Indiana University, and academic appointments at Arcadia University, and Thomas Jefferson University in Philadelphia. In recognition of his work and contributions, Dr. Logan has received numerous national and international awards, and in 2013-14 served as President of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS). A recent bibliometric analysis of the impact of the world’s forensic scientists, positioned him as the leading contributor to research in the field of forensic toxicology in the United States, and sixth in the world. In the last ten years he has had extensive involvement with forensic scientists in Brazil, hosting graduate students from the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, USP, and Campinas University at his laboratory in the United States, and visiting scientists from the Federal Police and State Crime Laboratories. He has presented multiple times at Interforensics, ENQFor, and Brazilian Academy of Forensic Sciences meetings. The CSFRE supports participation of young scientists from Brazil in the AAFS meeting and a reciprocal opportunity for young US scientists to attend Interforensics.

THE Most Important Book about Climate Change. Unsettled: What Climate Science Tells Us, What It Doesn’t, and Why It Matters by Steven E. Koonin

If you want to know the facts about global warming and climate change, if you want to reach your own informed opinion about what should be done about it, this is the book to read. All relevant facts are presented clearly, very much including the historical records together with scrupulous citing of primary sources, among which the official published reports, international and national, feature prominently. The author’s credentials for this work could hardly be more impressive. Steven Koonin has been a successful physicist, including pioneering work on the use of high-performance computers in simulation and modeling. He gained some insights from the administrative role of Vice President and Provost at Caltech; another highly relevant experience as Chief Scientist for the oil company BP, focusing on renewable energy possibilities; and he was an Undersecretary for Science in the Department of Energy in the Obama Administration, focusing on energy technologies and climate science. He understands the viewpoints of scientists, of government, and of industry; in other words, he knows whereof he speaks. Throughout the book, Koonin takes deliberate, explicit care to write dispassionately and factually. At the outset, he acknowledges that the path to convincing any wide audience calls for arousing emotion, so that scientists are inevitably in a dilemma: whether simply to describe the facts and hope for appropriate attention to them, or whether to find emotionally impressive ways of spinning and hyping the facts. Koonin takes the first course quite effectively. For example, “the science doesn’t support what’s portrayed in most popular discussions” might also have been expressed as, say, “We are being massively misled about so-called climate science, by media, pundits, and official climate scientists.” Thus the book’s careful, factually based wording may easily seem incongruous as it describes unwarranted and unscrupulous mis-stating of facts, spinning, and hyping, which seem to be an integral part of official “consensual” “climate science,” to which the book refers as “The Science” to contrast with actual evidence-based science.

Putting medicines shortages into perspective

“It is with real pleasure that I write for The Pharmaceutical Journal following my appointment as chief scientist at the Royal Pharmaceutical Society (RPS). My aim is to highlight some of the research being published within RPS’s suite of four learned journals, which are available online to all RPS members. Journal publications are a fundamental part of […]