Chevron Corporation Research Articles

Let's Keep All of the Lawsuits in One Place: Choice of Forum Provisions in a Corporation's Bylaws

In Boilermakers Local 154 Retirement Fund v. Chevron Corporation, the Delaware Chancery Court upheld the enforceability of bylaws provisions adopted by the directors of Chevron and FedEx that required lawsuits regarding the internal affairs of those two Delaware corporations to be brought only in Delaware courts. There are a number of Delaware corporations with their principal place of business in Colorado and other states, and there are more publicly held Delaware corporations than those incorporated under the laws of any other state. In light of these facts and the recent Boilermakers Local 154 decision, in a nine part series of posts Professor J. Robert Brown noted his opinion that Delaware courts are “management friendly” - a regular theme in that excellent blog. Other authors argue that the Delaware courts have a “balanced approach” when dealing with stockholder - management issues. Boilermakers Local 154 may be perceived as favoring boards of directors’, but it cannot be said that the decision is “management friendly.” Rather, the decision is “corporation friendly.” In the decision, the Chancery Court recognizes the business judgment in adopting forum selection bylaws for purposes of efficiency. The decision also recognizes that stockholders have a choice whether to invest in a Delaware corporation and thereby subject themselves to the DGCL, and the corporation’s certificate of incorporation (and the choices made therein). With that choice, stockholders need to understand the legal powers of their board and the dynamics of bylaws adoption.

A Prospective Pilot Newborn Screening and Treatment Program for Sickle Cell Anemia in the Republic of Angola

AbstractAbstract 480 Background:Sickle cell anemia (SCA) is a significant global health problem with >300,000 affected infants born each year in sub-Saharan Africa. Up to 80–90% of all children with SCA in Africa die before five years of age, due to infection or anemia, and usually without the proper diagnosis of SCA. Early identification by newborn screening (NBS), followed by interventions such as pneumococcal immunization and prophylactic penicillin, have dramatically reduced the mortality of children with SCA in the US, but this strategy not yet been established in Africa. A novel public-private partnership involving the Republic of Angola, Chevron Corporation, and Baylor College of Medicine/Texas Children’s Hospital was created to develop a pilot NBS and treatment program for SCA, focusing on capacity building and local ownership. Methods:Two large maternity hospitals in the capital city of Luanda, Angola were initially selected for dried blood spot (DBS) collection and analysis, and a third local health center was soon added. Maternity nurses were taught DBS collection and laboratory technicians learned isoelectric focusing (IEF) and capillary electrophoresis (CE) techniques. Identifiers including cell phone numbers are collected onto the Whatman NBS card to facilitate retrieval of affected babies. After collection, DBS were transported to the central NBS laboratory at Hospital Pediátrico David Bernardino (HPDB) for hemoglobin identification by IEF and CE. Demographic data and test results were entered into a unique internet-based electronic data capture system designed with secure password-protection and servers located in Houston, Texas. Results:Since initiation of NBS in July 2011, 17,055 babies have DBS collection and laboratory results: 3,588 (21%) with FAS pattern (sickle cell trait), and 264 (1.55%) with FS (consistent with SCA). Twenty-one samples produced a result other than FA, FAS, or FS, including 10 FAC and 1 FSC. Families of infants with an FS screening result are notified by phone to initiate care and treatment, ideally by age 8 weeks. In the new infant SCA clinic at HPDB, infants receive penicillin prophylaxis and PCV-13 pneumococcal immunization, while parents receive sickle cell education and insecticide-treated bed nets for malaria protection. In the first 6 months, 67.8% of DBS cards had phone numbers documented, but with education and reinforcement, 81.4% of cards had phone numbers in the past 6 months. To date, 220 FS babies are age-eligible for contact and 110 (50%) families have been reached: 104 (47%) have come to the infant SCA clinic, 6 (2.7%) had already died within the first month of life, and 0 refused care. A total of 201 doses of PCV-13 have been provided as per routine vaccination scheduling. After initial visit, the return rate for second immunization is 94% with only 3 babies lost to follow-up including 2 deaths. The calculated first-year mortality rate for all contacted FS babies (6.9%) compares favorably to the national infant mortality rate (9.8%). Conclusions:This prospective pilot study documents that newborn screening for SCA is feasible in a developing country such as Angola. Capacity building and teaching provide local healthcare workers with skills necessary to have a functional NBS program and infant SCA clinic. The sickle cell burden is extremely high in Angola, and contact and retrieval of all affected FS infants remains an ongoing challenge, but families are compliant with clinic appointments and treatment. Early mortality data suggest comprehensive SCA care can save lives, suggesting that expansion of the pilot program is warranted with an eventual national strategy for the diagnosis, care, and treatment of children with SCA in Angola. Disclosures:No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Chevron Corporation (USA) and Texaco Petroleum Company (USA) v. The Republic of Ecuador

Chevron Corporation (USA) and Texaco Petroleum Company (USA) v. The Republic of Ecuador

Realizing Value From Implementing i-field™ in Agbami—A Deepwater Greenfield in an Offshore Nigeria Development

Summary Digital oil field (DOF) in the upstream industry has gained momentum in the last few years and has transformed from being solely a vision to actual projects that have measurable value. The ultimate goal in DOF projects is an integrated approach toward decision making and control of asset management in relevant time. This paper describes the successful methodology adopted for implementing the i-field™ program (i-field is a trademark of Chevron Corporation) in Agbami—namely, identification, prioritization, and implementation of relevant workflows. The Agbami field, located in deepwater offshore Nigeria, is a subsea development that incorporates crestal gas and peripheral water injection. It is located in approximately 1500 m of water depth and consists of a 38-well development program to be implemented in three phases. The well completion incorporates intelligent well completions (IWCs)—downhole flowmeters, pressure and temperature gauges, and interval-control valves (ICVs). These downhole accessories are managed using electric and hydraulic controls/instrumentation, with subsurface, subsea, and topside data acquired and transmitted to a central data historian on the floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) unit in relevant time. The implementation of a robust architecture for a data- and informationmanagement system involving acquisition, processing, storage, and replication (from offshore to onshore) is conceived to be the foundation upon which asset-management workflows are implemented. The expected benefits from implementing the i-field program in Agbami include reduction in lost production opportunity (LPO) through proactive asset management, better long-term reservoir management through time-line management of injection- and production-rate balancing, increased efficiency and reliability through guided workflows, improved ultimate recovery, and better overall performance from standardization of base business work processes. The real value of implementing i-field initiatives in Agbami lies not only in the return on investment but also in providing a benchmark for capturing the value of other assets. Based on field experience, this paper discusses the approach toward value realization of the i-field system, including change-management strategy for end-user acceptance. Critical success factors and lessons learned during deployment are also presented.

International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) – Chevron Corporation (USA) and Texaco Petroleum Company (USA) v. The Republic of Ecuador Partial A

International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) – Chevron Corporation (USA) and Texaco Petroleum Company (USA) v. The Republic of Ecuador Partial A

Agbami Project: People and Partnerships Deliver a World-Scale Field Development

This article, written by Assistant Technology Editor Karen Bybee, contains highlights of paper OTC 20249, "Agbami Project: People and Partnerships Delivering a World-Scale Field Development," by C.D. Bloomer, Chevron Project Resources Company, originally prepared for the 2009 Offshore Technology Conference, Houston, 4–7 May. The paper has not been peer reviewed. The Agbami project successfully began production in July 2008, 10 years after the discovery of this world-class reservoir. Agbami represents one of Chevron Corporation's largest capital investments of the decade and the project achieved many outstanding results, overcoming various challenges along the way. The full-length paper provides an overview of the project and discusses the key project objectives, strategies used, and some of the lessons learned. Introduction The Agbami field sits 70 miles offshore Nigeria in approximately 5,000-ft water depth. The reservoir is a doubly plunging, thrust-faulted anticline comprising four main reservoirs. The crude is light and sweet, 47°API. The selected development plan includes a floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessel and subsea well completions. The FPSO has an oil-production capacity of 250,000 BOPD, gas-injection capacity of 415 MMscf/D, and water-injection capacity of 450,000 BWPD. The combined production capacity of the FPSO ranks as the largest in the world. Crestal gas injection provides pressure maintenance for the reservoir as well as preventing routine flaring of associated gas. Peripheral water injection also provides pressure maintenance. An estimated 38 wells eventually will be needed to develop the reserves fully. Nigerian Content The Agbami project made an early decision to achieve a new standard in Nigerian Content. Nigerian Content is a critical government objective to expand the economic benefits of project development and to build capacity in the people and businesses of Nigeria. The Agbami team embraced Nigerian Content as a strategic objective for project success, rather than as a government-imposed mandate. Agbami benchmarked the Nigerian Content of predecessor projects and established a Nigerian Content plan approximately 50% higher than previous accomplishments. These requirements were part of the project contracts, and all contractors understood the importance of delivering this objective. As a result, five modules for the FPSO were fabricated in Warri and Lagos, including the largest FPSO module (weighing more than 1,700 tons) built to date in Nigeria. For the first time in Nigeria, the stainless-steel-clad sub-sea manifolds were fabricated in Port Harcourt. In addition, the offloading buoy and mooring piles were fabricated in Lagos. Significant investment and capacity building occurred across the Nigerian yards to fabricate these facilities. In all, the Nigerian Content exceeded 10,000 tons of fabrication, employing more than 4 million man-hours with zero days-away-from work (DAFW) injuries. The goal was aggressive and led to challenges along the way, but it was successful because it was a reasonable plan that had the support of all partners.

Human energy

In the midst of big-oil record profits and growing debate on global warming, the Chevron Corporation launched its “Human Energy” public relations campaign. In television commercials and print advertisements, Chevron portrays itself as a compassionate entity striving to solve the planet’s energy crisis. Yet, the first term in this corporate oxymoron misleadingly reframes the significance of the second, suggesting that the corporation has a renewed focus. In depicting Chevron as a green/human organization, the “Human Energy” campaign obscures from view the corporation’s more unsightly products, policies, and practices. Reflection, however, on our own complicity in sustaining energy corporations and their activities undermines binary thinking and signals that the compulsion to denounce is insufficient. This article explores Chevron’s media campaign and one organized reaction to it. This counter-campaign both redeployed Chevron’s imagery and underscored our collusion and responsibility—tactics seeking to loosen the taut inevitability-of-oil story at Chevron’s core.

Volatility Spillovers between Returns on Crude Oil Futures and Oil Company Stocks

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillovers between the returns on crude oil futures and oil company stocks using alternative multivariate GARCH models, namely the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), and VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer et al. (2008). The paper investigates WTI crude oil futures returns and the stock returns of ten oil companies, which comprise the supermajor group of oil companies, namely Exxon Mobil (XOM), Royal Dutch Shell (RDS), Chevron Corporation (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), BP (BP) and Total S.A. (TOT), and four other large oil and gas companies, namely Petrobras (PBRA), Lukoil (LKOH), Surgutneftegas (SNGS), and Eni S.p.A. (ENI). Estimates of the conditional correlations between the WTI crude oil futures returns and oil company stock returns are found to be quite low using the CCC model, while the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models suggest no significant volatility spillover effects in any pairs of returns. The paper also presents evidence of the asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances in all pairs of returns.

Interview with David J. O’Reilly

The Way Ahead Interview An interview with David J. O'Reilly, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Chevron Corporation.

Decision Environments: Lessons Learned From Implementation and Future Direction

This article, written by Technology Editor Dennis Denney, contains highlights of paper SPE 112215, "Evolution of Decision Environments: Lessons Learned From Global Implementations and Future Direction of Decision Environments," by Michael Hauser, SPE, Chevron, and Helen Gilman, SAIC, prepared for the 2008 SPE Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, 25-27 February. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Chevron and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) are implementing asset-decision environments (ADEs) across business units as part of Chevron's i-field initiative. Decision and collaboration environments address challenges associated with response to real-time data, scarcity of experienced resources, and integration of and collaboration between disciplines and locations. Practical lessons learned on how to design an ADE are presented to address problems and deliver value, and still remain flexible to developments in the future. Introduction This digital-oilfield initiative was launched in late 2002 with a vision of transforming the way assets are managed and operated by integrating new technologies, new work processes, and new ways of working. The integrated field is an operational transformation philosophy that drives enhanced and optimized operating processes with these common attributes.Manage by exception (focus on highest value)Improve collaboration across distance and functionRemove people from harm's wayStandardize and centralize analysis and decision makingUse real- or right-time data in decision making An assessment process to engage assets and business units was developed that identifies an asset's key issues and makes recommendations on how to resolve those issues and add value. Early assessments, carried out in 2003 and 2004, recognized some common issues associated with different groups not able to access the same data at the same time, the need to collaborate across disciplines and locations, and how to make best use of scarce expert resources. The concept of the ADE was developed in 2004 in response to these needs. ADEs at Chevron. The definition of an ADE is intentionally general, allowing several types of decision environments to be included. An ADE is a real-time operating environment in which people can manage and execute business processes by use of collaborative decision making across part or all of an asset or business unit. Fig. 1 shows how an ADE, or collaborative environment, spans the office and field, and may include experts from other locations or other organizations. It may be a physical operation room, a virtual environment, or a hybrid of both. An ADE is not defined by its physical properties; rather, it is thought of in terms of the activities and processes that it enables and facilitates.

Semantic Web Technologies for Smart-Oilfield Applications

This article, written by Assistant Technology Editor Karen Bybee, contains highlights of paper SPE 112267, "Semantic Web Technologies for Smart Oil Field Applications," by Ramakrishna Soma, Amol Bakshi, and Viktor Prasanna, University of Southern California, and Will DaSie, SPE, and Birlie Bourgeois, Chevron Corporation, originally prepared for the 2008 SPE Intelligent Energy Conference and Exhibition, Amsterdam, 25-27 February. The paper has not been peer reviewed. In model-based oilfield operations, engineers rely on simulations to make important operational decisions on a daily basis. Generally, an engineer is an expert in only one aspect of oilfield modeling and trained to use only a few tools. Accessing information captured in models that are not in the area of expertise of the engineer and are created by different processes and people is not easy. The full-length paper examines the application of semantic Web technologies to address the problem of information represented differently across models. Introduction The work described in the full-length paper is part of the Integrated Asset Management (IAM) project at the Chevron-funded Center for Interactive Smart Oilfield Technologies at the University of Southern California. The current focus of the IAM project is to enable model-driven reservoir management. Consider a typical oilfield operation for a greenfield. Because little or no performance-related data for the field exist, the production engineer must rely on simulations for making the initial set of asset-development decisions. Different simulation models of the oil field including Earth, network, reservoir, and integrated-system (coupled)-simulation models are created. These simulation models are built and used at different times and locations, and by team members of different disciplines. A particular member of the team typically is an expert in a particular modeling and simulation technology and is familiar with certain software toolkits in that domain. This means that models, workflows, and results created with other software tools in other domains are not usable and accessible by that expert. As a result, the insights and understanding of a team member in one role are not used fully by someone in another role. These simulation models can be modified constantly as new data are produced in the oil field and interpreted by one or more members of the asset team. In this situation, changes made to the model(s) by one team member should be communicated immediately to other team members who may be using that model as the basis of scenario planning and forecasting, or who may need to modify their own models to match the updates.

Interview with Alan Preston

HR Advice - Alan Preston, Senior Vice President Human Resources for Chevron Corporation, discusses current challenges in attracting young talent.

Chevron Corporation

Mergent's Dividend AchieversVolume 3, Issue 2 p. 55-55 U.S. Company Reports Chevron Corporation† First published: 20 April 2006 https://doi.org/10.1002/div.3863Citations: 1 † Contact: : David J. O'Reilly — Chmn., C.E.O. Address: : 6001 Bollinger Canyon Road, San Ramon, CA 94583-2324 Web Site: : www.chevrontexaco.com AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditWechat Abstract Oil and Gas (MIC: 14.2 SIC: 2911 NAIC: 324110) Chevron is a global energy company engaged in fully integrated petroleum operations, chemicals operations and coal mining activities. Co. also holds investments in power generation and gasification businesses. Petroleum operations consist of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; refining crude oil into finished petroleum products; marketing crude oil, natural gas and the many products derived from petroleum; and transporting crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. As of Dec 31 2005, net proved reserves of natural gas were 20.466 trillion cubic feet and net proved reserves of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids totaled 5.63 billion barrels. Citing Literature Volume3, Issue2Spring 2006Pages 55-55 RelatedInformation

Chevron Corporation

Mergent's Dividend AchieversVolume 3, Issue 4 p. 55-55 U.S. Company Reports Chevron Corporation† First published: 10 October 2006 https://doi.org/10.1002/div.4698 † Contact: : David J. O'Reilly — Chmn., C.E.O. Address: : 6001 Bollinger Canyon Road, San Ramon, CA 94583-2324 Web Site: : www.chevrontexaco.com AboutPDF ToolsRequest permissionExport citationAdd to favoritesTrack citation ShareShare Give accessShare full text accessShare full-text accessPlease review our Terms and Conditions of Use and check box below to share full-text version of article.I have read and accept the Wiley Online Library Terms and Conditions of UseShareable LinkUse the link below to share a full-text version of this article with your friends and colleagues. Learn more.Copy URL Share a linkShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditWechat Abstract Oil and Gas (MIC: 14.2 SIC: 2911 NAIC: 324110) Chevron is a global energy company engaged in fully integrated petroleum operations, chemicals operations and coal mining activities. Co. also holds investments in power generation and gasification businesses. Petroleum operations consist of exploring for, developing and producing crude oil and natural gas; refining crude oil into finished petroleum products; marketing crude oil, natural gas and the many products derived from petroleum; and transporting crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products. As of Dec 31 2005, net proved reserves of natural gas were 20.466 trillion cubic feet and net proved reserves of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids totaled 5.63 billion barrels. Volume3, Issue4Autumn (Fall) 2006Pages 55-55 RelatedInformation

Ethics

Employers have a number of reasons to consider monitoring employee email—more than two million of them, if you ask Chevron Corporation. Recently, the San Francisco‐based oil company was required to pay four plaintiffs a total of $2.2 million after their attorneys found email evidence of sexual harassment. The attorneys had found a smoking gun when they located, on Chevron's own email server, an email message that had been sent to a number of people within the company containing a list of jokes about “why beer is better than women.” Had Chevron been monitoring its employees' email, it might have seen the problem coming.

RESOURCE SHARING AND STRATEGIC ALLIANCES-REDUCTION OF OILFIELD COSTS THROUGH INNOVATIVE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Supply chain management is the relatively recently implemented concept of managing an integrated supply function from production of a product or service to its receipt by its ultimate end user.This management philosophy has revolutionised production and manufacturing industries throughout the world, and has brought about dramatic efficiency improvements, with similar effects upon reducing overall costs. Traditionally, this was an area that was considered of low priority, presenting little opportunity for value adding or innovation, and characterised by adversarial, uncompetitive management techniques.Similarly, in the oil and gas industry, especially in the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, extended supply chains have necessitated a re-evaluation of the mechanisms used not only for provision of the supply service, but in the relationship between the operator and the service provider. Most notable examples being the CRINE (Cost Reduction Initiative for the New Era) initiative in the United Kingdom and Chevron Corporation's (one of West Australian Petroleum's participants and also its technical advisor) CSQIP (Chevron Supplier Quality Improvement Process) methodology.This paper will concern itself therefore with the application of cutting edge Supply Chain Management techniques garnered from both the North Sea and the United States. Focussing specifically upon alliancing/partnering, resource sharing and outsourcing, upon West Australian Petroleum Pty Limited (WAPET) and its respective contractors.It will seek to show that through innovative use of current supply chain management tools, as well as imaginative 'out of the box' thinking by WAPET personnel and contractor personnel alike, significant cost reductions and performance improvements can be brought to bear on oilfield operating costs.

Treatment selection by constraint propagation a case study in cutting fluid selection

The GREASE project is an investigation of the application of artificial intelligence to cutting fluid selection and blending for metal machining operations. The problem is to first diagnose the machining operations to determine what fluid characteristics are required, then to select a cutting fluid which satisfies the required characteristics. The problem is exacerbated by the need to select a single fluid to be used by multiple types of operations on a variety of materials. Diagnosis is relatively simple, but treatment specification is difficult due to the variety of operations to be handled.GREASE uses heuristic search in which the evaluation function is heuristically constructed. The construction of the evaluation function begins with the determination of the characteristics of an optimal fluid based on deep knowledge of the machining operations and materials. This is then altered heuristically according to problems diagnosed with the current fluid. Once the evaluation function is complete, it is used to select an existing fluid from the product line. GREASE has been tested extensively with results which equal that of the experts and has been field tested by the Chevron Corporation.

The Art and Science of Energy Forecasting

Distinguished Author Series articles are general, descriptive representations that summarize the state of the art in an area of technology by describing recent developments for readers who are not specialists in the topics discussed. Written by individuals recognized as experts in the area, these articles provide key references to more definitive work and present specific details only to illustrate the technology. Purpose: to informthe general readership of recent advances in various areas of petroleum engineering. Introduction In the 1970's, energy forecasting moved into the limelight. Market forces, which had evolved during extended industry growth, combined with politicalevents to trigger two disruptions to the normal flows of petroleum. These "oil shocks" raised the awareness of politicians and the general public to thesignificant role of energy supply in the modem economy. Suddenly, energy-particularly oil-was everyone's business. Almost everyonehad a complaint and a prescription. "Experts" appeared as if by magic, each prescription. "Experts" appeared as if by magic, each suggesting a different path out of the wilderness. At the core of the uncertainty were some basic economic and forecasting problems. Are we really running out of oil? Do oil and energy obey the laws ofsupply and demand? Is energy demand price elastic? Can a cartel really work forlong? Is it possible to understand all of the ramifications of a particular policy? Can history be used to help predict the future? policy? Can history beused to help predict the future? As the answers evolve, we begin to understand how much still remains to be learned about energy forecasting. There is a large body of literature about forecasting theory and forecasting techniques, of which the References provide only a small sample. But ratherthan survey the repertoire of econometric techniques including linear programming, multiple regression, Box-Jenkins techniques, input-output models, cross impact analysis, and the Delphi approach, this paper focuses on philosophical problems posed by any attempt to forecast the future. At the outset, note the distinction between two classes of future occurrences: events and trends. Events, which cannot be known before they happen, include things like storms, earthquakes, and assassinations. Even thespecific outcome of a process (for example, which person will be electedpresident in 1988) is an event that cannot be foretold. On the other hand, trends lend themselves to analysis and, thus, can beforecast within the constraints of assumptions about those events and trendswhich are external to the analysis. Examples include sales of products, long-term weather patterns, and political and social trends. Although it is impossible to predict who will be elected president in 1988, it is possible to analyze and forecast the trends which may lead to the predominance of aparticular party or philosophy. party or philosophy. Trend forecasting must also be distinguished from path forecasting. Here the distinction is usuallyone of path forecasting. Here the distinction is usually one of the timehorizon involved. The inertia of any system tends to keep it in motion along aparticular trend even though the specific path may be quite irregular and volatile. The trend can be forecasted; the path is unpredictable. Most forecasts are of trends and attempt to define the broad movements thatwill later be called "history." An example of a trend forecast is shown in Fig.1. (All figures provided by Chevron Corporation Economics Department.) The trend assumes that real oil prices will increase at a defined rate until they are high enough to stimulate substantial quantities of synthetics. On any given date, however, the market price of oil is likely to deviate because of prevailing price of oil is likely to deviate because of prevailing marketconditions. Although the path will generally follow the trend, it will besubject to temporary deviations and excursions. The challenge is to determine whether a particular price move indicates a trend or whether it is a temporary excursion outside the normal range of forecasting uncertainty. Beware the Ides of March -William Shakespeare History of Forecasting Forecasting-as opposed to fortune-telling-was largely a creation of theIndustrial Revolution. JPT P. 1437