A forced ignition probability analysis method is developed for turbulent combustion, in which kernel formation is analyzed with local kernel formation criteria, and flame propagation and stabilization are simulated with Lagrangian flame particle tracking. For kernel formation, the effect of turbulent scalar transport on flammability is modelled through the incorporation of turbulence-induced diffusion in a spherically outwardly propagating flame kernel model. The dependence of flammability limits on turbulent intensities is tabulated and serves as the flammability criterion for kernel formation. For Lagrangian flame particle tracking, flame particles are tracked in a structured grid with flow fields being interpolated from a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solution. The particle velocity follows a Langevin model consisting of a linear drift and an isotropic diffusion term. The Karlovitz number is employed for the extinction criterion, which compares chemical and turbulent timescales. The integration of the above two-step analysis approach with non-reacting CFD is achieved through a general interpolation interface suitable for general unstructured CFD grids. The method is demonstrated for a methane/air bluff-body flame, in which flow and fuel/air mixing characteristics are extracted from a non-reacting simulation. Results show that the computed ignition probability map agrees qualitatively with experimental results. A reduction of the ignition probability in the recirculation zone and a high ignition probability on the shear layer of the recirculation zone near the mean stoichiometric surface are well captured. The tools can facilitate optimization of spark placement and offer insights into ignition processes.