Characteristics Of Land Use Change Research Articles

Estimation of carbon stock and economic value of Sanjiangyuan National Park, China

Sanjiangyuan National Park (SNP) is one of China’s national parks with high ecological significance and ecological vulnerability. In order to promote the healthy development of national park ecosystems, it is extremely important to investigate the carbon sequestration potential and the economic value of carbon sequestration in the SNP. Here, we comprehensively analyzed the characteristics of land use change from 1985 to 2022 based on the land use transfer matrix and land use dynamic degree, calculated the ecosystem carbon storage based on the InVEST model, and estimated the economic value of carbon storage in each period combined with compound interest present value method. The results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2022, carbon stocks generally went through three phases: increasing, stabilizing, and decreasing. (2) Low carbon density areas were concentrated in the Kekexili Natural Reserve in the Yangtze River Source Park and a small part of the Yellow River Source Park and Lancang River Source Park; The high carbon density area was concentrated in the water area and the forest land in the southeast of the Lancang River Source Park. (3) Land use change in SNP had a decisive impact on carbon storage change, and the economic value of carbon storage in SNP continued to increase from 1985 to 2022. In order to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable management of carbon sinks and the reduction of carbon emissions in the SNP area, it is necessary to further study the carbon cycle process, carbon storage and carbon emissions in the region in the future.

Variation Characteristics of Land Use Change Within the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region During 1985–2022

Land use change generally varies greatly among functional zones in a large area. This study reveals land use change characteristics across seven functional zones in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region during 1985–2022 based on the latest land use planning data, with the land use dynamic degree, transfer matrix, and comprehensive index of land use intensity. Results suggested cropland, forest land, grassland, and built-up land were dominant land use types in most functional zones, generally with significant decreases in cropland and grassland and noticeable increases in built-up land and forest land. Besides, single land use dynamics of built-up land and forest land were generally above 2.00% and 0.40%, while that of grassland and cropland was generally below zero in most functional zones. Comprehensive land use dynamics were very high in the Central Core Functional Zone (Region IV), Bashang Plateau Ecological Protection Zone (Region I), and Eastern Coastal Development Zone (Region III), peaking above 0.70%, and were low in other functional zones. Additionally, the land use degree increased slowly from 267.28 in 1985 to 274.17 in 2022 on average, varying remarkably among various functional zones. These findings provide a firm foundation for formulating more targeted land management policies across various functional zones.

Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Land Use Changes in the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021 and Future Predictions

Studying spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and the driving factors in the Yellow River Basin as well as simulating and predicting future land use is crucial for resource management, ecological protection, and regional sustainable development in the Yellow River Basin. Based on the China Land Cover Dataset (CLCD) of the Yellow River Basin from 1990 to 2021, this study employs various methods such as the Mann–Kendall test and sliding t-test, land use dynamics, the land use transfer matrix, the standard deviation ellipse, the center of gravity migration model, and a geographic detector to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes and driving forces in the Yellow River Basin over the past 30 years. Additionally, the study predicts land use types in the study area for the year of 2030 by using the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model. The results show the following: (1) From 1990 to 2021, the area of forest, grassland, water, and impervious surfaces increased significantly, while the area of cropland, shrub, barren land, and wetlands decreased significantly. The most actively changing land use types are cropland, grassland, barren land, and impervious surfaces. (2) The center of gravity for shrub and impervious surfaces shifted westward, while wetlands showed a trend of obvious concentrated distribution, and the remaining land use types exhibited stable directional distributions. (3) Economic factors had a stronger driving effect on land use changes than topographic and climatic factors. The land use changes in the Yellow River Basin are influenced by the coordinated driving forces of multiple factors. (4) In 2030, the main land use types in the Yellow River Basin are still expected to be cropland, grassland, and forest. However, there will be a significant expansion of impervious surfaces and forest land, with substantial encroachment on cropland and grassland.

Multi-Scenario Simulation of Land Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Based on the Markov–FLUS Model in Ezhou City, China

Changes in land use patterns, types, and intensities significantly impact ecosystem services. This study follows the time series logic from history to the expected future to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of land use changes in Ezhou and their potential impacts on the ecosystem services value (ESV). The results show that the Markov–FLUS model has strong applicability in predicting the spatial pattern of land use, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.9433 and a FoM value of 0.1080. Between 2000 and 2020, construction land expanded continuously, while water area remained relatively stable, and other land types experienced varying degrees of contraction. Notably, the area of construction land expanded significantly compared to 2000, and it expanded by 70.99% in 2020. Moreover, the watershed area expanded by 9.30% from 2000 to 2010, but there was very little change in the following 10 years. Under the three scenarios, significant differences in land use changes were observed in Ezhou City, driven by human activities, particularly the strong expansion of construction land. In the inertial development scenario, construction land expanded to 313.39 km2 by 2030, representing a 38.30% increase from 2020. Conversely, under the farmland protection scenario, construction land increased to 237.66 km2, a 4.89% rise from 2020. However, in the ecological priority development scenario, the construction land area expanded to 253.59 km2, a 10.13% increase from 2020. Compared to 2020, the ESV losses in the inertia development and farmland protection scenarios were USD 4497.71 and USD 1072.23, respectively, by 2030. Conversely, the ESV under the ecological protection scenario increased by USD 2749.09, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing ecological protection in Ezhou City’s development. This study may provide new clues for the formulation of regional strategies for sustainable land use and ecosystem restoration.

Understanding Urbanization Patterns and Demographic Shifts in Vaniyambadi Town: A Spatial Approach

Abstract: During the last several decades, the urbanization trends in worldwide push the people into the urban areas due to large number of opportunities i.e., educational, employment, better quality of life, and land use in these areas experienced significant changes and restructuring. This paper delves into the nuanced interplay between demographic shifts and the spatial structure of urban settings, employing Vaniyambadi Town as a case study. Through a combination of demographic analyses, spatial modelling, and field surveys, we systematically explore the transformations in population dynamics and its impact in the spatial structure of the town. Based on a site survey, this paper analyses the spatial characteristics of land use change in Vaniyambadi town. The results reveal a reduction in agricultural land from 44% in 1984 to 24.62% in 2023 and further to 14.76% in 2043. This reduction is primarily attributed to population growth, the establishment of settlements, mixed residential usage, and has led to a significant loss of cultivated land, indicating increasing land scarcity in the future.

Discriminating the non-coordination between ecosystem service value and economic development and its spatial characteristics in central Yunnan urban agglomeration in the recent 30 years

Environmental issues have become one of the important topics affecting China and the world. As the world’s most populous country and the second-largest economy, China’s environmental conditions have significant impacts on global ecosystems and sustainable development. To accurately determine the relationship between economic development and the environment, explore the non-coordination and spatial characteristics between the two, and promote regional sustainable development. This study is based on land-use data from four periods: 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. It uses the dynamic measurement and value equivalent method to explore the characteristics of land-use changes and measure the value of ecosystem services in the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration. At the same time, the study uses the non-coordination degree model and hotspot analysis tools to identify the non-coordination between Ecosystem Service Value and economic development (Gross Domestic Product), and explore the spatial characteristics between them. The research results show that: (1) The main land-use types include cultivated land, forest land, and grassland, which account for more than 90% of the total proportion. The land types with a small proportion in the region are water areas, construction land, and unused land. (2) The development level of ecosystem service value presents four types of changes: fluctuating increase, fluctuating decrease, continuous increase, and continuous decrease. The regional spatial distribution shows obvious regional heterogeneity, overall presenting a spatial distribution pattern of “low in the middle, high around.” (3) The average index of non-coordination degree from 1990 to 2020 is 0.591, 0.635, 0.584, and 0.565, showing a coordinated non-coordination coupling type. The regional space presents a spatial pattern of “high in the central and western regions, low in the northeastern and southern regions.” (4) The hotspots of non-coordination are mainly concentrated in the central and northwest regions of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, while the coldspots of non-coordination are mainly distributed in the northeastern, western, and southern regions of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration, showing a regular agglomeration distribution. This study suggests that it is necessary to balance and coordinate the relationship between regional economic development and the environment.

Spatio-temporal Evolution and Multi-scenario Simulation of Carbon Storage in Karst Regions of Central Guizhou Province：Taking Puding County as An Example

Regional land use change is the main cause for the change in karst carbon storage. It is important to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution and future spatial distribution trends of carbon storage in typical counties in central Guizhou's karst region， such as Puding County， to improve regional carbon storage， optimize land ecological security patterns， and promote low-carbon sustainable urban development. The PLUS-InVEST model was coupled， based on the interpreted land use data and future land prediction， the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and carbon storage in Puding County from 1973 to 2020 were inverted， and the spatial pattern evolution of land use and carbon storage change under different scenarios in 2060 were simulated and predicted. The results showed： ① from 1973 to 2020， the overall carbon storage in Puding County increased by 6.61×105 t， showing an upward trend. The spatial distribution showed a significant increase in the northeastern and southwestern parts of Puding County and a significant decrease in the south-central parts. The change was due to the increase in carbon storage in dryland to shrubland and forest land and the decrease in carbon storage in areas where paddy fields are converted to construction land. ② The land use change in Puding County in the historical period was mainly reflected in the continuous expansion of construction land and the increased fluctuation of the proportion of forest land and shrub forest land， and the change in land use in different scenarios projected in 2060 retained the change characteristics of the historical period. ③ In 2060， the carbon storage in Puding County under the scenarios of natural evolution， ecological protection， and economic development increased by 2.93×105， 5.40×105， and 1.11×105 t， respectively， compared with that in 2020. Of these， the increase in ecological protection scenarios was the most significant， with the transfer of dryland to shrubland being the main reason for the increase in regional carbon sequestration capacity. These results can serve as a scientific reference for land use management decisions and the formulation of emission reduction and sink increase policies in Puding County. The future land use planning of karst areas should be guided by the goal of "carbon neutrality" in 2060， take appropriate ecological protection measures， strictly control the rapid expansion of construction land to paddy fields， optimize the land use structure， and effectively improve the level of regional carbon storage.

Characteristics of Land Use Change and Its Influencing Factors in Karst Plateau Ecologically Fragile Areas

Characteristics of Land Use Change and Its Influencing Factors in Karst Plateau Ecologically Fragile Areas

20-Year Ecological Impact Analysis of Shibing Karst World Natural Heritage through Land Use

Changes in the spatial pattern of land use are inextricably linked to the ecosystem environment, and the assessment of regional eco-environment quality can help provide sustainable and healthy development strategies for heritage management organizations. In this study, based on RS and GIS technologies, we quantitatively analyzed the characteristics of land use changes in the Shibing Karst World Natural Heritage site from 2000 to 2020, and introduced the regional eco-environment quality assessment index for quantitative factor analysis. The results show that: (1) The heritage site is mainly dominated by forest and shrub, with more aggregated cropland, and impervious surfaces in the buffer zone. The area of shrub has increased during the 20-year period, occupying 12.63% of the total transferred area. Cropland has been basically converted to forest, accounting for more than 60% of the total transferred area, followed by shrubs, which have been basically transferred to ecologically better land types. (2) By analyzing the attitude of motivation, forest, shrub, and water have positive values, while cropland, grassland, and impervious surfaces have negative values. Grassland has the largest absolute value of kinetic attitude, and the smallest is for water. The integrated dynamic attitude is basically maintained at 24%, showing a state of rapid and then stable land category conversion. (3) Over the past 20 years, the regional eco-environment quality index has been stable between 0.68 and 0.71, and shows a trend of rapid growth and stabilization, which is consistent with the comprehensive attitude. The conversion between cropland, forest, and shrubs is the main cause of ecological improvement and deterioration. Overall, the relevant conservation measures at the site and China’s corresponding responses to global climate change have led to a stabilization and increase in the regional ecological quality of the site. The management measures of the relevant authorities have begun to bear fruit, but further promotion of the sustainable development of the site is needed to provide a scientific model for the conservation of other karst heritage sites.

Temporal and spatial evolution of ecosystem service value in Ili Valley and its driving factors

Ili Valley is an important ecological barrier in western China and an important economic zone of the Belt and Road Initiative. Exploring the driving factors of ecosystem service value (ESV) based on land use change is of great significance for optimizing regional ecological environment and coordinating human-land relationship. Based on three periods of land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Yili Valley, we used ArcGIS 10.8 and Origin to analyze the characteristics of land use change, temporal and spatial variations of ESV, and the synergy and trade-offs of ecosystem services, and explored the driving factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ESV and the interaction among factors by using Geo-Detector. The results showed that land use change in the study area was obvious from 2000 to 2020, with the area of grassland and water area being greatly reduced and the largest increase for the area of construction land. The ESV of grassland and water area and the service function of water resource supply decreased significantly. ESV high value areas were transformed to low value areas. Synergy was the dominant relationship among ecosystem services in the study area, which showed an increasing trend. Elevation was the main driving factor of ESV spatial differentiation in Yili Valley, and the low elevation plain area suitable for human activities on both sides of the basin was the low ESV value area. The interaction between all factors was manifested as enhanced relationship, while the explanatory power of natural factors was higher than that of social and economic factors.

Analysis of land use change and its driving forces in Nanjing metropolitan area

As the earliest inter-provincial metropolitan area started to be built in China, the Nanjing metropolitan area has become an important issue worthy of study in this region after 20 years of development. In order to quantify the characteristics of land use change and its driving factors, ArcGIS was used to calculate the land use transfer matrix and analyze the land use change in Nanjing metropolitan area for two time periods from 2000 to 2010 and 2010 to 2020, and the driving factors of land use change in the study area were explored by the method of principal component analysis. The results show that the Nanjing metropolitan area is dominated by arable land, forest land and water bodies, which account for more than 80% of the total area; the area of arable land decreases significantly and the area of construction land continues to increase during the study period, and the area of arable land transformed into construction land is the most numerous among the land use change types. The increase in population, socio-economic development and changes in climatic factors are the main driving factors for land use type conversion in the Nanjing metropolitan area. This study provides a theoretical basis for the sustainable and high-quality development of land resources and the coordinated development of human-land relations in the Nanjing metropolitan area.

Analysis of land-use changes in town development and ecological protection

During the development of the infrastructure of towns, there are constant changes in the way land is used. This paper, selecting a town in Hebei province as an example, obtained its remote sensing data, analysed the characteristics of land-use changes and the impact on ecological protection in the area between 2013 and 2020, and calculated its degree of diversity, dynamic degree and ecological index. The results showed that from 2013 to 2020, the area of the cultivated land in the town decreased by 423.33 km2, the area of the forest land decreased by 25.15 km2, but the area of the construction land increased by 454.743 km2. The degree of diversity was relatively stable, the overall dynamic degree was 0.24% and the fragmentation and separation degrees decreased. The cultivated and construction lands changed the most. This study can provide a reference for the subsequent land-use planning of this town.

Forecast of policy-driven land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in China: A case study of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

Land use change is an important factor affecting the performance of ecosystem services (ESs). Therefore, understanding the impact of land use change on ESs is of great significance for promoting the coordination of regional human-land relationships. In this study, random forest and cellular automata were used to simulate and predict the characteristics of land use change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and diversified land use evolution patterns were formed in combination with China's strategic development needs. The effects of habitat suitability on ESs were analyzed by using a multiscenario land use change model. The results demonstrated that the driving factors selected in this article had a good induction effect on the law of land use evolution, and the simulated land use change had high credibility. Under the mode of ecological protection and cultivated land protection, the expansion of construction land was greatly affected and was not conducive to social and economic development. Under the natural evolution mode, farmland was greatly encroached upon, and food security was greatly threatened. The regional coordination model had relative advantages, and all kinds of land use needs were met to a certain extent. The water production function of ESs was strong, but the carbon storage function was weak. The relationship between the habitat suitability index and ES changes under land use change revealed that there were significant differences in ES changes caused by ecological quality changes in mountainous and plain areas. This study provides a reference for promoting social and economic development and ecosystem integrity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;19:1473-1484. © 2023 SETAC.

Land-Use/Land-Cover Change and Ecosystem Service Provision in Qinghai Province, China: From the Perspective of Five Ecological Function Zones

Qinghai Province is an important part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and has special importance in the construction of ecological civilisation in China, which is related to the ecological security of the country and long-term development. The land is the basis of terrestrial ecosystem services. Land use/cover change (LUCC) can alter the structure, distribution and processes of terrestrial ecosystems, thereby affecting ecosystem services. Ecological Function Zone (EFZ) is the special zone designated by the government to protect ecosystems more effectively. Studying the response of ecosystem services value (ESV) to LUCC within EFZ is of great significance to the construction of ecological civilization in Qinghai Province. This study uses five periods of land use data from 1980 to 2020 and selects the equivalent factor method, correction method and elasticity model to analyse the characteristics of land use change and its impact on the value of ecosystem services. The conclusions are as follows. (1) The results showed that the ESV of Qinghai Province decreased from 822.559 billion yuan in 1980 to 819.903 billion yuan in 2000, and then increased rapidly to 905.775 billion yuan in 2020, showing a total increase of 83.216 billion yuan (1 RMB equates to 0.144129 USD). The restoration of grassland and the expansion of water bodies are the main reasons for the growth of ESV. (2) The ESV of Sanjiangyuan EFZ was the highest, followed by Qaidam EFZ, Qinghai Lake EFZ and Qilian Mountains EFZ, while Hehuang EFZ was the lowest. (3) The elasticity of the ESV to LUCC generally declined in all EFZs. Every 1% change in the LUCC in the Qaidam EFZ will result in a 4.78% change in ESV, followed by the Sanjiangyuan EFZ (2.56%), Qilian Mountains EFZ (2.1%), Qinghai Lake EFZ (1.01%), and the Hehuang EFZ with the lowest elasticity index (0.53%). (4) The distribution of the high values of the ESV elasticity gradually expands, with a clear spatial distribution characteristic of high west and low east. (5) The most suitable area for urban construction in Qinghai Province is the Hehuang EFZ, and urban construction in the Qaidam EFZ should avoid encroaching on water bodies or polluting water sources. The conclusions can provide a reference for optimising the land use structure and harmonising conservation and development in Qinghai Province.

Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)

It is essential to study the characteristics of land use change in the Fuxian Lake basin, a plateau lake in Yunnan Province, and to predict the basin’s future trend of land use change for sustaining the key carriers of current national major strategies such as ecological civilization, green development, and rural revitalization. This study used the Fuxian Lake basin as the subject and based on the seven periods of historical land use data, added six driving factors including human and natural factors, applied patches to generate the land-use simulation model (PLUS), and forecasted and analyzed the characteristics of land-use change in the basin in 2048 under the three scenarios of natural trend development, ecological protection, and production protection. The results showed that: (1) the overall simulation accuracy of the model was 79.14%, Kappa index was 0.73, FOM value was 0.29, and the model’s consistency was high. The model can be used to simulate future land-use changes in the Fuxian Lake basin. (2) In the natural development scenario, land-use development and the driving factors in the basin have the following relationship: rainfall and trunk road distance significantly impacted the types of land that emphasize ecological conservation and product development. Elevation and soil distribution characteristics had a significant impact on land types focused mainly on water zones and ecological protection. The land types mainly focused on urban construction were greatly affected by elevation, trunk road distance, GDP per capita, and other factors. (3) The main direction of land-use change in the watershed is the mutual conversion between farmland and forest land, with the continuous expansion of construction land. In the production protection scenario, the area of farmland increased by 44.79 hm2. In the ecological protection scenario, the area of arbor forest land increased by 37.85 hm2 and the area of shrub forest land decreased by 62.37 hm2. (4) From the perspective of spatial distribution patterns, the regional hotspot change blocks are mainly concentrated in the north of the basin, along the coast of the north of Fuxian Lake, and the southern land. In general, the PLUS model had good applicability in this study. The simulation results of the different scenarios were in line with the land development in the Fuxian Lake basin and can provide scientific reference for land-space planning, ecological and production land constraints, and coordination of development in the Fuxian Lake basin.

Triple Spatial Effects of the Administrative Hierarchy on Urban Built-Up Areas in Fujian Province, China: Heterogeneity, Radiation, and Segmentation

The expansion of urban built-up areas is one of the most prominent characteristics of land use change in China. A growing body of literature has emphasized the triple spatial effects of the administrative hierarchy on urban built-up areas expansion, including heterogeneity, radiation, and segmentation. However, the existing studies have mainly focused on the administrative hierarchy at the prefectural level and above and have primarily concentrated on one single effect; few have integrated the triple effects as a whole. Based on high-resolution land use data and taking Fujian province as a study case, this study proposes an integrated theoretical framework and modeling approach and investigates the triple spatial effects of administrative hierarchy on built-up areas at the prefectural level and below. Descriptive statistics show the following: (1) Built-up areas of municipal districts are significantly larger than those of county-level units, showing the heterogeneity characteristics of urban land distribution across different levels of administrative hierarchy; (2) The county-level units adjacent to municipal districts exploit more built-up areas than other county-level units, indicating the radiation effects of municipal districts; (3) The radiation effects tend to be reduced if a municipal district and its adjacent county-level units are not located in the same prefectural city, revealing the segmentation effects among the different prefectural cities. Using the spatial econometric model with regimes, we further find the following: (1) The strengths of driving forces of built-up areas are heterogeneous between municipal districts and county-level units, and there are significant spatial interactions among administrative units; (2) The spatial interactions between municipal districts and county-level units are stronger than those between two county-level units, but the strength is restricted by the prefectural boundary, reflecting the radiation effects of municipal districts and the segmentation effects of the prefectural boundary, respectively. By investigating the triple spatial effects of the administrative hierarchy on urban built-up areas, we conclude that comprehensively considering these triple effects as a whole will result in a fuller understanding of the rapid built-up areas expansion in China, especially at the prefectural level and below.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services at Watershed and Landscape Scales: A Case Analysis of the Yellow River Basin (Henan Section)

The changes and interrelationships of ecosystem services at different global and regional scales have been actively investigated. Clarifying the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services from a multi-scale scientific perspective is vital to improve the coordinated and sustainable development of the watershed and ecological protection. As an important ecological barrier region of the Yellow River Basin, the Henan section provides a variety of important ecosystem services. This study analyzes the characteristics of land use changes in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) from 1990 to 2020. Based on the InVEST model, four ecosystem services-water production, soil conservation, carbon storage and food supply have been evaluated. The Spearman correlation coefficient was used to further reveal the spatial and temporal characteristics of the trade-offs and synergies at different levels of each service. The results showed that: (1) From 1990 to 2020, the basin was dominated by farmland conservation. The construction land area mainly exhibited an inflow behavior, while other land use types were mainly related to outflow. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the water yield, soil conservation and carbon storage first increased and then decreased, while food supply gradually increased. The spatial distribution of these ecosystem services was lower in the southwest and slightly higher in the northeast and farmland had the highest capacity of water production and food supply, while woodland had the highest capacity for soil conservation and carbon storage. (3) The Spearman rank correlation coefficient indicated that the trade-offs for the ecosystem services in the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) dominated before 2000, and the synergies gradually strengthened after 2000. (4) There were clear spatial heterogeneities in the ecosystem services of the basin; for instance, the functions in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin (Henan section) were mainly trade-offs, while the higher elevations in the middle reaches exhibited synergistic relationships. This study aims to clarify the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem services at the different levels. Based on our findings, countermeasures and suggestions for ecological protection and management are proposed to promote the coordinated development of social economy and ecological protection.

Simulation of Land Use Change and Habitat Quality in the Yellow River Basin under Multiple Scenarios

Habitat quality is the key to regional ecological restoration and green development, and land use change is an essential factor affecting habitat quality. Studying the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of land use change and habitat quality under multiple scenarios is significant for regional ecological restoration and management, and for preventing future ecological and environmental risks. We used the improved Logistic-CA-Markov (Logistic-Cellular Automata-Markov) and InVEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) models to establish the spatial patterns of habitat quality in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2040 and analyzed the characteristics of land use and habitat quality changes under scenarios of natural development (S1), ecological protection (S2), and urban expansion (S3). The results showed that in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, the main land use types in the watershed were dryland and grassland, accounting for more than 72%. Paddy land, dryland, woodland, middle-coverage grassland, and unused land all showed decreasing trends, whereas all other land types showed increasing trends. Influenced by human activities and the environment, the watershed habitat quality was low, with 80% of the areas with middle to low grades, but the overall trend was rising. The spatial variability in habitat quality of the watershed was significant, with habitat quality improvements in the central and northern regions and continued deterioration around the cities in the southern and western parts. The spatial autocorrelation and aggregation of habitat quality in the watershed were strong, and future land use patterns in the study area had a significant relationship with human activities. Simulation of future scenarios revealed ecological conservation catalytic effects on habitat quality in the study area, whereas urban expansion deteriorated watershed habitat quality. This study could provide support for future ecological conservation decisions.

Characteristics of Land Use Change in China before and after 2000

China, with notable population blooming and economic development in the last decades, has experienced profound land-use changes, which, in turn, dramatically impacted the regional, even global and environment system. However, characteristics of land-use changes in China have not yet been well addressed, especially around the year 2000 when a series of land policies were put forward, such as the project of “returning farmland to forest”. To fill this gap, this paper investigated the temporal and spatial patterns of land use changes in China for the period from 1987 to 2010, by taking advantage of the continually updated China Land Use Database developed from remote sensing images. The land-use dynamic matrix, zonal model, and transition matrix were employed to characterize land-use change patterns for four time intervals (1987–1995, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010) on the dimensions of conversion and modification. Results showed that land-use change affected 4 × 105 km2 (4.5%) of the total landscape in China for more than the past twenty years. Of the six land-use types, built-up land experienced the largest net increase by almost 30% (52,434 km2), with the rate of expansion accelerating after 1995. The area of cropland increased before 2000 and declined afterwards, ending with a net increase in 14,280 km2, approximately 1% of its original area. The loss in the eastern coastal region is attributed mainly to built-up land expansion, while the gain in northern China, with the price of grassland and woodland shrinking, reshaped the cropland distribution in China. The area of woodland decreased slightly by 7880 km2 without a clear pattern over time. The modification of woodland indicated an intensive forest management in terms of planting fast-growing trees in the south of China. Grassland continues to shrink at a decreasing rate, and the modification of grassland shows a tendency of transformation from sparse grassland into a dense one in the 21st century. Trade-offs among demands on food security, economic development, and environment protection forced and shaped the contemporary land-use change in China. These results contribute to understanding the trends and causes of land use change in China, which could provide underpinning knowledge for assessing environmental change, and provide insights on future land planning.

Eco-environmental effects and spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use change: A case study of Hexi Corridor, Northwest China.

Based on the land use data of Hexi Corridor region from 1980 to 2020, we calculated the ecological environment quality index and analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics, change frequency, patterns, circles of the long time series land use type changes and its ecological environment quality, using the spatial analysis method of ArcGIS. The results showed that unused land was the main land use type in the study area during 1980-2020. The area of construction land, forest land, grassland, and water changed more, and the transition among land use types was obvious. The trends of deterioration and improvement of ecological environment quality in the study area occurred simultaneously and offset each other under certain conditions. The ecological environment quality index evolved in a 'U' shape, first decreasing and then increasing, with little change in overall ecological environment quality fluctuations. The spatial clustering of ecological quality was obvious, which was higher in the southeast and lower in the northwest, without high frequency and large change. The ecological quality in the southeast quadrant of the study area was the worst, followed by the southwest and northwest quadrants, while the ecological quality in the northeast quadrant was the best. The area of the continuously decline zone in ecological environment quality type conversion was larger than that of the continuously rising zone, indicating that ecological environmental protection in the Hexi Corridor had been effective during the study period. The hot spots of ecological quality change were mainly distributed in the central and southwestern part of the Hexi Corridor, and the cold spots were mainly distributed in the northwestern part.