Seismic Source Characterization Research Articles

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iraq

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments (PSHA) form the basis for calculating seismic loads in most contemporary seismic provisions in building codes around the world. The current building code of Iraq, which was published in 1997, is currently undergoing a significant engineering update. This study was undertaken in order to support the building code update and to satisfy the need in Iraq for a contemporary assessment of seismic hazard in terms of spectral accelerations. Seismic source characterization largely relies on a newly compiled earthquake catalog since sufficiently detailed information is not available on active faulting in the country even though there are numerous known active faults. There is also a lack of locally recorded strong-motion data. As a result, we make use of attenuation tomography studies in the region to compare local attenuation characteristics with that in other parts of the world where ground-motion prediction equations are available for use in PSHA. For most of the country, the attenuation of 1HzLg waves indicates an attenuation rate that is slower than active tectonic regions but faster than stable continental regions. Hence, we use ground-motion prediction equations from active tectonic and stable continental regions, weighted equally. The PSHA results are presented for a 2% chance of being exceeded in 50 years and on a reference ground condition of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) site class B. The probability level and reference ground conditions were selected to be consistent with the update of Iraq’s building code. The largest hazard, and consequently the design ground motions, is in the northern cities of Sulaymaniyah and Erbil, consistent with the fact that they are the two urban areas closest to major tectonic features to the north and east of Iraq. Additionally, the Badra–Amarah fault zone is a significant contributor to seismic hazard in the country; therefore, urban areas near it exhibit high seismic hazard.

Complex Rupture of an Immature Fault Zone: A Simultaneous Kinematic Model of the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA Earthquakes

AbstractThe 4 July 2019 Mw6.4 and subsequent 6 July 2019 Mw7.1 Ridgecrest sequence earthquakes (CA, USA) ruptured orthogonal fault planes in a low slip rate (1 mm/year) dextral fault zone in the area linking the Eastern California Shear Zone and Walker Lane. This region accommodates nearly one fourth of plate boundary motion and has been proposed to be an incipient transform fault system that could eventually become the main tectonic boundary, replacing the San Andreas Fault. We investigate the rupture process of these events using a novel simultaneous kinematic slip method with joint inversion of high‐rate GNSS, strong motion, GNSS static offset, and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data. We model the Coulomb stress change to evaluate how the Mw6.4 earthquake may have affected the subsequent Mw7.1 event. Our findings suggest complex interactions between several fault structures, including dynamic and static triggering, and provide important context for regional seismic source characterization and hazard models.

The 2018 Mw 6.8 Zakynthos (Ionian Sea, Greece) earthquake: seismic source and local tsunami characterization

SUMMARYWe investigated the kinematic rupture model of the 2018 Mw 6.8 Zakynthos, Ionian Sea (Greece), earthquake by using a non-linear joint inversion of strong motion data, high-rate GPS time-series and static coseismic GPS displacements. We also tested inversion results against tide-gauge recordings of the small tsunami generated in the Ionian Sea. In order to constrain the fault geometry, we performed several preliminary kinematic inversions by assuming the parameter values resulting from different published moment tensor solutions. The lowest cost function values were obtained by using the geometry derived from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) focal solution. Between the two conjugate USGS planes, the rupture model which better fits the data is the one with the N9°E-striking 39°ESE-dipping plane. The rupture history of this model is characterized by a bilateral propagation, featuring two asperities; a main slip patch extending between 14 and 28 km in depth, 9 km northeast from the nucleation and a slightly shallower small patch located 27 km southwest from the nucleation. The maximum energy release occurs between 8 and 12 s, when both patches are breaking simultaneously. The maximum slip is 1.8 m and the total seismic moment is 2.4 × 1019 Nm, corresponding to a Mw value of 6.8. The slip angle shows a dominant right-lateral strike-slip mechanism, with a minor reverse component that increases on the deeper region of the fault. This result, in addition to the observed possibility of similar mechanisms for previous earthquakes occurred in 1959 and 1997, suggests that the tectonic deformation between the Cephalonia Transform Fault Zone and the northern tip of the Hellenic Arc Subduction zone may be accommodated by prevailing right lateral low-dipping faults, occurring on re-activated structures previously experiencing (until Pliocene) compressional regime. Comparison of predicted and observed tsunami data suggests the need of a better characterization of local harbour response for this type of relatively short-wavelength events, which is important in the context of tsunami early warning. However, the suggested dominantly strike-slip character would in turn imply a reduced tsunami hazard as compared to a dominant thrust faulting regime from this source region.

Site Characterization and Evaluation of Seismic Sources for Amaravati Region

After the bifurcation of Telangana from Andhra Pradesh (AP) state in 2014, the Amaravati and adjoining localities has been proposed as a new capital region to the state of AP, India. As per the seismic zonation map of India, the proposed region falls in zone III. However, the prediction of damage level due to earthquakes is highly impossible, as it is influenced by many regional factors. In order to estimate the damage level from the future earthquakes in the present study, the various compositions involved in the regional fields of geological, geomorphological and soil characteristics are evaluated for the selected study region. In addition to this, to understand the seismicity of this region the earthquake catalogue and seismotectonic map have been prepared by collecting the data within 300km radial distance from Velgapudi (16° 52'N, 80° 51'E) as a center. The results of different fields represented in the form of thematic maps for this geographical information system (GIS) software has been used.

Gutenberg–Richter’s b Value and Earthquake Asperity Models

The Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) relationship can be derived as the Gibbs distribution. For a given earthquake set (all earthquakes in a given region, time period, magnitude range, tectonic settings) the Gibbs probability density function for magnitudes, with a given b value in its exponent, is the most uniform distribution under the constraints of the magnitude range and mean value. Therefore, it represents our limited knowledge about the system output: the only pieces of information are the mean value and the magnitude range. Honest earthquake forecasts can be based on such a distribution, since it represents all and only available information about the seismic system. The b value can change among different earthquake sets (in time, space, magnitude ranges, or tectonic settings), since it is related to earthquake rupture dynamics, or seismic source characteristics. The relationship between the b value and the exponent $$\beta$$ in the rupture area vs. maximum slip scaling, $$A\propto D^{\beta }$$, results from viewing earthquake recurrence time in connection with the slip budget. This makes a link between earthquake statistics (the G–R law) and physics (fault characteristics). Specifically, the relationship enables us to explain different ranges of b values at megathrust faults, in dependence on interplate asperity and coupling distributions, as well as on amounts of sediments and fluids in subduction channels. The approach differs from common interpretations of the G–R law in that the b value becomes a field variable, not a constant. It is always the Gibbs distribution for a given magnitude range that we use due to our ignorance about the system outcome, and it is the b value that variates, depending on our knowledge about the system physics. This is important for seismic forecasts, which are mostly based on the G–R relationship. First, because the physical processes leading to the largest earthquakes can be revealed by observing the b value variations. Second, because earthquake generation process can be thought of as sampling with constraints, where the b value and the magnitude range are the constraints.

Neotectonic and Paleoseismic Analysis of the Northwest Extent of Holocene Surface Deformation along the Meers Fault, Oklahoma

ABSTRACT The Meers fault (Oklahoma) is one of few seismogenic structures with evidence for Holocene surface rupture in the stable continental region of North America. The 37-kilometer-long southeast section of the full 54-kilometer-long Meers fault is interpreted to be Holocene active. The 17-kilometer-long northwest section is considered Quaternary active, but not Holocene active. We reevaluate surface expression and earthquake timing of the northwest Meers fault to improve seismic source characterization. We use airborne light detection and ranging and historical stereopaired aerial photos to evaluate the fault scarp and local fault-zone geomorphology. In the northwest, complex surface deformation includes fault splays, subtle monoclinal warping, and a minor change in fault strike. We interpret that the along-strike transition from surface faulting on the southeast Meers fault to surface folding on the northwest Meers fault occurs at the lithologic contact between Permian Post Oak conglomerate and Hennessey shale. We excavated a paleoseismic trench to evaluate the timing of surface-deforming earthquakes on the northwest section of the fault. The excavation revealed weathered Permian Hennessey shale and an ∼1–2-meter-thick veneer of Holocene alluvial deposits that were progressively deformed during two surface-folding earthquakes likely related to blind fault rupture beneath the site. Repeated onlapping to overlapping stratigraphic sequences and associated unconformities are intimately related to folding events along the monocline. OxCal paleoearthquake age modeling indicates that earthquakes occurred 4704–3109 yr B.P. and 5955–4744 yr B.P., and that part of the northwest section of the Meers fault is Holocene active. We find the Holocene-active section of the Meers fault should be lengthened 6.1 km to the northwest, to a total Holocene-active fault length of 43 km. Empirical scaling relationships between surface rupture length and magnitude reveal that the fault could generate an Mw 7.0 earthquake.

Quantification of source-to-site distance uncertainty in ground motion models

Among different input data, source-to-site distance plays a major role in the results of ground motion models (GMMs). In order to determine the source-to-site distance, geometric characteristics of the seismic source need to be specified. This can be challenging when the seismic source is not known thoroughly. Empirical relationships themselves which are used to determine the geometric characteristics of seismic sources contain large degree of uncertainty. In this paper, a simple algorithm based on Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method which quantifies the uncertainties in distance metric and geometric characteristics of seismic sources is proposed. The jointly effects of magnitude and distance are considered in the proposed algorithm for uncertainties modeling. Also, this algorithm has been used to quantified errors resulted from inputting inaccurate source-to-site distance metrics in the GMMs. NGA-West2 global GMMs and event-specific isotropic and non-isotropic GMMs are used in the analysis. The results demonstrate that the uncertainty in the measurement of different source-to-site distance definitions depends on the magnitude and on the location of site with respect to the seismic source. It is also observed that the distance measurement uncertainty has a direct effect on the outcomes of GMMs. GMMs’ coefficient of variation maps demonstrate that the amount of uncertainty is higher around the fault; for large magnitudes, outcome variation of GMMs reaches as high as 40% of the average predictions. The coefficient of variation in GMM results decreases with the increase in distance metrics considered where at a distance beyond 30 km, the coefficient of variation of GMM estimates drops from 40 to 10%.

Amplification characteristics at Iedang Reservoir dam sites determined using H/V spectral ratio with background noise, S-wave and coda wave energy

Seismograms are mainly composed of three key factors: seismic source, path effects and site amplification characteristics. Among these, amplification characteristics are critical in evaluating the reliability of not only seismic design for engineering but also seismic source and crustal attenuation characteristics for seismology. In this study, the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) ratio seismogram method was applied. The calculation of the H/V spectral ratio in the frequency domain was first proposed by Y. Nakamura in 1989, and has recently been extended to evaluate site amplification using S-waves, coda waves and background noise. In this study, H/V spectral ratios were analysed using six earthquake seismograms (from earthquakes near Boryeong in Chungnam Province and Baekyeong Island) observed at four temporary dam sites (IDS, IDU, IDD and IDF) near Iedang Reservoir, Korea. We simultaneously compared amplification characteristics, using the S-wave, coda wave and background noise of each seismogram. The simultaneous comparison of S-waves and coda waves (excluding background noise) at the four dam sites showed well-developed consistency in site amplification characteristics. Each site showed different low- and high-frequency characteristics and had its own unique resonance frequency (IDS: ~11 Hz, IDU: ~4 Hz, IDD: ~7 Hz), except for the IDF site, which is situated in hard bedrock. In addition, the IDD site showed first- and second-order site resonance frequency harmonics. We hope that by comparing our results with those from studies using other methods, we are able to add new information to future studies of dynamic behaviour and site classification in Korea.

PSHA of Van province for performance assessment using spectrally matched strong ground motion records

Within the framework of the performance based earthquake engineering, site specific earthquake spectra for Van province has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2, 10 and 50% in 50 yrs period. The obtained results are compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code (2007), section 7. The acceleration response spectrums obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are matched to adjust earthquake accelerograms recorded during the 2011 Van earthquakes by using SeismoMatch v2.0 software. The aim of this procedure is to obtain a set of reasonable earthquake input motions for the seismic evaluation of existing buildings.

Review: Past and Future Fault Rupture Lengths in Seismic Source Characterization—The Long and Short of It

Review: Past and Future Fault Rupture Lengths in Seismic Source Characterization—The Long and Short of It

Seismic source characteristics of the intraslab 2017 Chiapas-Mexico earthquake (Mw8.2)

Inversion of the parameters characterising the seismic source of the instraslab 2017 Chiapas Mexico earthquake (Mw 8.2) shows a simple rupture process with a unidirectional propagation and directivity towards the North-West and a duration of the rupture process around 75 s. The initial point source values of strike, dip and rake are 316°, 80° and −91° respectively. The focal mechanism indicates a normal fault type within the oceanic Cocos plate, with an almost vertical fault plane for a focal depth of 59 km. The seismic data was obtained from 51 seismic stations of the global seismic network IRIS for the epicentral distances between 30° and 90°. In the finite-fault inversion, 75 seismic signals between P and SH waves were used. The epicenter is on the southeast margin of the large slip zone which extends 75 km to the northwest, this large slip zone is located to the south of the city of Arriaga. The scalar seismic moment was estimated at 2.55×1021Nm, equivalent to a moment magnitude of Mw 8.2. The maximum dislocation or slip is 14.5 m. As a coseismic effect, a local tsunami was generated, recorded by several tidal gauges and offshore buoys. The deformation pattern shows a coastal uplift and subsidence.

Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments of Sabah, east Malaysia: accounting for local earthquake activity near Ranau

Sabah state in eastern Malaysia, unlike most of the other Malaysian states, is characterized by common seismological activity; generally an earthquake of moderate magnitude is experienced at an interval of roughly every 20 years, originating mainly from two major sources, either a local source (e.g. Ranau and Lahad Dato) or a regional source (e.g. Kalimantan and South Philippines subductions). The seismicity map of Sabah shows the presence of two zones of distinctive seismicity, these zones are near Ranau (near Kota Kinabalu) and Lahad Datu in the southeast of Sabah. The seismicity record of Ranau begins in 1991, according to the international seismicity bulletins (e.g. United States Geological Survey and the International Seismological Center), and this short record is not sufficient for seismic source characterization. Fortunately, active Quaternary fault systems are delineated in the area. Henceforth, the seismicity of the area is thus determined as line sources referring to these faults. Two main fault systems are believed to be the source of such activities; namely, the Mensaban fault zone and the Crocker fault zone in addition to some other faults in their vicinity. Seismic hazard assessments became a very important and needed study for the extensive developing projects in Sabah especially with the presence of earthquake activities. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessments are adopted for the present work since it can provide the probability of various ground motion levels during expected from future large earthquakes. The output results are presented in terms of spectral acceleration curves and uniform hazard curves for periods of 500, 1000 and 2500 years. Since this is the first time that a complete hazard study has been done for the area, the output will be a base and standard for any future strategic plans in the area.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for South-Eastern France

The accurate evaluation and appropriate treatment of uncertainties is of primary importance in modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). One of the objectives of the SIGMA project was to establish a framework to improve knowledge and data on two target regions characterized by low-to-moderate seismic activity. In this paper, for South-Eastern France, we present the final PSHA performed within the SIGMA project. A new earthquake catalogue for France covering instrumental and historical periods was used for the calculation of the magnitude-frequency distributions. The hazard model incorporates area sources, smoothed seismicity and a 3D faults model. A set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) from global and regional data, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region, was used to calculate the hazard. The magnitude-frequency distributions, maximum magnitude, faults slip rate and style-of-faulting are considered as additional source of epistemic uncertainties. The hazard results for generic rock condition (Vs30 = 800 m/s) are displayed for 20 sites in terms of uniform hazard spectra at two return periods (475 years and 10,000 years). The contributions of the epistemic uncertainties in the ground motion characterizations and in the seismic source characterization to the total hazard uncertainties are analyzed. Finally, we compare the results with existing models developed at national scale in the framework of the first generation of models supporting the Eurocode 8 enforcement, (MEDD 2002 and AFPS06) and at the European scale (within the SHARE project), highlighting significant discrepancies at short return periods.

Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations

Inspired by the first workshop on Best Practices in Physics-Based Fault Rupture Models for Seismic Hazard Assessment of Nuclear Installations (BestPSHANI) conducted by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on 18–20 November, 2015 in Vienna (http://www-pub.iaea.org/iaeameetings/50896/BestPSHANI), this PAGEOPH topical volume collects several extended articles from this workshop as well as several new contributions. A total of 17 papers have been selected on topics ranging from the seismological aspects of earthquake cycle simulations for source-scaling evaluation, seismic source characterization, source inversion and ground motion modeling (based on finite fault rupture using dynamic, kinematic, stochastic and empirical Green’s functions approaches) to the engineering application of simulated ground motion for the analysis of seismic response of structures. These contributions include applications to real earthquakes and description of current practice to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety in low seismicity areas, as well as proposals for physics-based hazard assessment for critical structures near large earthquakes. Collectively, the papers of this volume highlight the usefulness of physics-based models to evaluate and understand the physical causes of observed and empirical data, as well as to predict ground motion beyond the range of recorded data. Relevant importance is given on the validation and verification of the models by comparing synthetic results with observed data and empirical models.

Low-Frequency Atmospheric Gravity Waves from Vertical Tectonic Deformation During Two Recent Chilean Megathrust Events: the 2010 Maule (Mw8.8), and 2014 Iquique (Mw8.2) Earthquakes

Background: Low-frequency atmospheric waves with gravity modes were recorded within 6.5 hours and 4.7 hours after two recent Chilean megathrust events, the 2010 Maule (Mw = 8.8), and 2014 Iquique (Mw = 8.2) earthquakes, respectively, at several microbarograph stations of the International Monitoring System (IMS) in South America and its surrounding regions. Method: Their apparent phase velocity up to the epicentral distances of 7,404 km and 6,481 km was found to be around 319 m/s and 337 m/s, respectively for the gravity modes after the two earthquakes. We tried to construct synthetic waveforms to be recorded at some of these microbarograph stations, incorporating various seismic source characteristics of the two earthquakes, and also a standard sound velocity structure up to a height of 220 km above the ground surface. The comparison appears to show some agreement between the observed and synthetic waveforms at least for the first 22 min for appropriate combinations of these source parameters. Results: The results indicate that the observed atmospheric gravity waves at the initial stage appear to have actually been excited at the source region of these megathrust earthquakes. Conclusion: The average rise time of vertical tectonic movement at the source region, which is estimated to be from the observed gravity waves, appears to be in the range between 2 and 3 min.

Numerical simulations (2D) on the influence of pre-existing local structures and seismic source characteristics in earthquake-volcano interactions

Earthquake triggering of hydrothermal and volcanic systems is ubiquitous, but the underlying processes driving these systems are not well-understood. We numerically investigate the influence of seismic wave interaction with volcanic systems simulated as a trapped, high-pressure fluid reservoir connected to a fluid-filled fault system in a 2-D poroelastic medium. Different orientations and earthquake magnitudes are studied to quantify dynamic and static stress, and pore pressure changes induced by a seismic event. Results show that although the response of the system is mainly dominated by characteristics of the radiated seismic waves, local structures can also play an important role on the system dynamics. The fluid reservoir affects the seismic wave front, distorts the static overpressure pattern induced by the earthquake, and concentrates the kinetic energy of the incoming wave on its boundaries. The static volumetric stress pattern inside the fault system is also affected by the local structures. Our results show that local faults play an important role in earthquake-volcanic systems dynamics by concentrating kinetic energy inside and acting as wave-guides that have a breakwater-like behavior. This generates sudden changes in pore pressure, volumetric expansion, and stress gradients. Local structures also influence the regional Coulomb yield function. Our results show that local structures affect the dynamics of volcanic and hydrothermal systems, and should be taken into account when investigating triggering of these systems from nearby or distant earthquakes.

EARTHQUAKE ATTENUATION MODELS AND ITS RESPONSES TO EARTH ZONE DAM IN UPPER NORTHERN PART OF THAILAND

The upper northern part of Thailand is mountainous area which classified as moderate risk byearthquake. This study was focused on the earthquake attenuation model of Abrahamson and Silva (2008).Exciting quake source from the Chiang Rai 2014 earthquake was recorded at earth zone dam site study. Theaccelerometer was installed in the bottom of dam which is 59 m height, 9 m width and 1,950 m length. Theattenuation model is the relationship between acceleration, distance, size of earthquake, period ofstabilization, characteristics of seismic sources and geological conditions. This research aims to compare thepeak ground acceleration (PGA) between the attenuation models and the data measurement at the dam tocheck the accuracy of the model. And to study the dynamics analysis in the dam by using two selected timehistory records with different wave characteristics as: short period (EQ1) and long period (EQ2) to analyzethe behavior of the pore water pressure, the stress and displacement in the dam. The results of this studyrevealed that the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) from the attenuation model of Abrahamson and Silvaequal to 0.017787 g. And the percentage error of calculated PGA when compared to the PGA frommeasurement was 6.38. The analysis of the dynamics by using seismic waves with different time duration.EQ1 have made the pore water pressure on the dam higher when the effective stress in the dam decrease,which makes the displacement of the dam more than EQ2.

Challenges Ahead for Nuclear Facility Site-Specific Seismic Hazard Assessment in France: The Alternative Energies and the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA) Vision

Seismic analysis in the context of nuclear safety in France is currently guided by a pure deterministic approach based on Basic Safety Rule (Regle Fondamentale de Surete) RFS 2001-01 for seismic hazard assessment, and on the ASN/2/01 Guide that provides design rules for nuclear civil engineering structures. After the 2011 Tohohu earthquake, nuclear operators worldwide were asked to estimate the ability of their facilities to sustain extreme seismic loads. The French licensees then defined the ‘hard core seismic levels’, which are higher than those considered for design or re-assessment of the safety of a facility. These were initially established on a deterministic basis, and they have been finally justified through state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard assessments. The appreciation and propagation of uncertainties when assessing seismic hazard in France have changed considerably over the past 15 years. This evolution provided the motivation for the present article, the objectives of which are threefold: (1) to provide a description of the current practices in France to assess seismic hazard in terms of nuclear safety; (2) to discuss and highlight the sources of uncertainties and their treatment; and (3) to use a specific case study to illustrate how extended source modeling can help to constrain the key assumptions or parameters that impact upon seismic hazard assessment. This article discusses in particular seismic source characterization, strong ground motion prediction, and maximal magnitude constraints, according to the practice of the French Atomic Energy Commission. Due to increases in strong motion databases in terms of the number and quality of the records in their metadata and the uncertainty characterization, several recently published empirical ground motion prediction models are eligible for seismic hazard assessment in France. We show that propagation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is feasible in a deterministic approach, as in a probabilistic way. Assessment of seismic hazard in France in the framework of the safety of nuclear facilities should consider these recent advances. In this sense, the opening of discussions with all of the stakeholders in France to update the reference documents (i.e., RFS 2001-01; ASN/2/01 Guide) appears appropriate in the short term.

Seismic source characterization for the Shillong Plateau in Northeast India

The present study aims at understanding the seismotectonic province of the Shillong Plateau (SP) by identifying the potential seismic source zones within a radius of 500 km from the centre of the SP. From existing literature and earthquake (EQ) data, the seismotectonic region is found to vary in terms of seismicity, tectonic features, geology, thickness of overburden, rupture characteristics and rate of movement. Thus, entire 500-km-radius seismotectonic region is divided into four seismic source zones: namely (1) the Shillong Plateau–Assam Valley Zone (SP-AVZ), (2) the Indo-Burma Ranges Zone (IBRZ), (3) the Bengal Basin Zone (BBZ) and (4) the Eastern Himalaya Zone (EHZ). EQ catalogues for each source zone is analysed for completeness of magnitude and time. Seismic parameter b estimated using a maximum likelihood method is found to be 0.91 ± 0.03, 0.94 ± 0.02, 0.80 ± 0.03 and 0.89 ± 0.03 for the SP-AVZ, IBRZ, BBZ and EHZ, respectively. In addition, the maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the mean annual activity rate, maximum possible magnitude (m max), return period and probability of exceedance for the four zones. The b values estimated suggest that the BBZ is seismically more active; however, the rate of occurrence of EQs is highest in the IBRZ. Findings from this study are an indication of the relative contribution from each of the four seismic source zones towards a seismic hazard of the SP.