Changing Epidemiology Research Articles

A change in circulating chikungunya virus variant impacts Aedes aegypti vector competence and spatiotemporal distribution of disease in Malaysia.

In 2008-2010, Malaysia experienced a nationwide chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak caused by the Indian Ocean lineage E1-226V (valine) variant, adapted to Aedes albopictus. In 2017-2022, transition to an E1-226A (alanine) variant occurred. Ae. albopictus prevails in rural areas, where most cases occurred during the E1-226V outbreak, while Ae. aegypti dominates urban areas. The shift in circulating CHIKV variants from E1-226V to E1-226A (2009-2022) was hypothesized to result in a transition from rural to urban CHIKV distribution, driven by differences in Ae. aegypti vector competence for the two variants. This study aimed to: (1) map the spatiotemporal spread of CHIKV cases in Malaysia between 2009-2022; and (2) compare replication of E1-226A and E1-226V variants in the midguts and head/thoraxes of Ae. aegypti. Spatiotemporal analysis of national notified CHIKV case addresses was performed. Between 2009-2022, 12,446 CHIKV cases were reported, with peaks in 2009 and 2020, and a significant shift from predominantly rural cases in 2009-2011 (85.1% rural), to urban areas in 2017-2022 (86.1% urban; p<0.0001). Two Ae. aegypti strains, field-collected MC1 and laboratory Kuala Lumpur (KL) strains, were fed infectious blood containing constructed CHIKV clones, pCMV-p2020A (E1-226A) and pCMV-p2020V (E1-226V) to measure CHIKV replication by real-time PCR and/or virus titration. The pCMV-p2020A clone replicated better in Ae. aegypti cell line Aag2 and showed higher replication, infection and dissemination efficiency in both Ae. aegypti strains, compared to pCMV-p2020V. This study revealed that a change in circulating CHIKV variants can be associated with changes in vector competence and outbreak epidemiology. Continued genomic surveillance of arboviruses is important.

Head injuries in prehospital and Emergency Department settings: a prospective multicenter cross-sectional study in France

BackgroundHead injuries are the leading cause of trauma in Emergency Departments (EDs). Recent studies have shown epidemiological changes in patients consulting ED for head injuries. The main objective of this study was to describe the profile of head injury patients consulting in the EDs in France and assess i) head injury severity across age groups; ii) the delay between the occurrence of head injury and ED arrival; iii) factors associated with traumatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH).MethodsThis cross-sectional study collected patient data over a three-day period in March 2023. All adult patients (≥ 18 years old) admitted to the ED with a head injury (defined as a trauma to the head) were included. TBI severity was classified according to patients’ initial Glasgow Coma Scale score in the ED: severe (3–8); moderate (9 -12); mild (13–15); and simple head trauma in the absence of transient or persistent neurological symptoms.ResultsAmong the 71 participating EDs, 26,008 patients visited EDs and a total of 1070 patients (4.1%, IC 95 3.9—4.4) presented a head injury were included in the study, with a median age of 68.5 [37–85] years old. Most of the patients (66.7%) were referred to ED after a call to the Emergency Medical Dispatcher (EMD). The median time from head injury to ED visit was 2 h [1.0 – 5.5]. Ground-level falls were the leading cause of head injury (60.3%). Most of patient presented a simple head trauma (n = 715, 66.8%) followed by mild TBI (n = 337, 31.5%). CT head scans were performed for 636 patients (59.6%), of which 58 were positive. Traumatic ICH prevalence was 5.4% (95% CI: 4.1–6.9) and three patients (0.3%) required an urgent neurosurgical intervention. Neither preinjury anticoagulant (p = 0.97) nor antiplatelet (p = 0.93) use was associated with an increased risk of traumatic ICH.ConclusionsOne head injury patient out of two presenting in the ED is aged over 65 years. Patients referred by EMD were more likely to visit ED promptly. The majority of older patients underwent a head CT scan and preinjury anticoagulant use was not associated with increased risk of traumatic ICH.

3.H. Scientific session: Advancing Health and Care System Transformation with the THCS Partnership

Abstract Health and care systems across Europe are facing similar challenges. These include demographic and epidemiological changes, such as growing ageing population and increasing incidence and prevalence of chronic diseases, in addition to diminishing of budgets. These challenges can be met by innovative, evidence-based solutions, the research and development of which can be supported by several ways. The European Partnership on Transforming Health and Care Systems (THCS) is a co-fund action within the Horizon Europe Programme which supports coordinated national and regional research and innovation programs, alongside capacity building, networking, dissemination, and other activities crucial for health and care systems’ transformation. The core of THCS’s activities lies in funding research and innovation projects through transnational calls, engaging numerous research and innovation funding organisations. In addition to the funding activities, THCS develops several means for supporting the transformation towards sustainable, efficient, resilient, inclusive, innovative, and people-centred health and care systems accessible to all. This workshop aims at discussing on the trends and needs for research, development and innovation and capacity building in the European health and care systems, on leveraging research outcomes for evidence-based strategies and translating research into practice, on transferring and implementing innovative health and care practices, on fostering ecosystems, and on facilitating knowledge exchange and sharing. In the workshop the different means of the THCS partnership to support the transformation of health and care systems are presented and their further development discussed. The workshop consists of five presentations followed by a general discussion. Key messages • Participants will learn about the different means of the THCS partnership to support the transformation of health and care systems. • Participants can contribute to the further development of the THCS activities by sharing their reflections, opinions, and viewpoints.

Sustainability in the Next Generation Hospital. Needs and Requirements collection from healthcare infrastructures supply chain stakeholders with One Health approach

Abstract Technological, demographic, epidemiological, environmental and social changes require investment in new sustainable hospital infrastructure; there is a lack of guidelines and interaction between Stakeholders. In February 2022, the Joint Research Platform Healthcare Infrastructures (JRP HI) was established consisting of Hospital Strategic Directions and Industrial Partners in Italy. Starting from the WHO Techincal Brief “Hospitals of the Future”, a national survey was carried out via web-survey and semi-structured interviews with a sample of 30 stakeholders to collect the main drivers and constraints for innovation and the framework from a One Health perspective and in terms of sustainability. The main needs to be addressed through the guidelines refer to digitalization (27%), flexibility (32%), environmental sustainability (36%) and economic sustainability (27%) as well as flow management (18%) and hospital infection (14%). The participants consider SDG-3 ‘Good Health and Wellbeing’ to be the most relevant for development activities. Hospital managers prioritize SDG-8 ‘Decent Work and Economic Growth’ (23%); vice-versa the industrial partners suggest SDG-11 ‘Sustainable Cities and Communities’ and SDG- 13 ‘Climate Actions’ (32%) as topics to be addressed. Furthermore, 57% of the respondents state that they lack adequate training, budget or leadership to apply innovative strategies in the day-to-day management of the healthcare organization. The survey highlighted a lack of initiatives, budget, and standardization for enhancing environmental sustainability in healthcare infrastructures. The sustainability of building systems depends on factors such as energy consumption, alternative energy sources, thermal comfort, water usage, waste management, ventilation, lighting efficiency, air quality, and construction materials. Ensuring the adoption of monitoring systems and harmonized standards of performance measurement is crucial for increasing the environmental sustainability.

Health economics and services research in symbiosis: STREAMLINEing mental health services in Austria

Abstract Objectives The cost of mental diseases exceeds 4% of GDP in Europe. In Austria, every 5th person lives with mental ill-health (MIH). Ongoing epidemiological, demographic and societal changes increase the need for easily accessible, better integrated and good value services. In STREAMLINE, we combine, harmonize and implement the latest methods in human service mapping and economic costing to optimize future service provision and financing for MIH in Austria. Methods We comprehensively assess the availability, activity and affordability of human services targeting MIH in Vienna within the health and social care, education, labour and justice sectors based on a conceptual mind map. We identify services through extensive literature, document and web searches plus expert consultations. Services are mapped and costed according to the European PECUNIA methods: classification of the main service types using the international DESDE taxonomy of human services; development of Reference Unit Costs using the PECUNIA RUC templates with primary data; validation of the results with secondary data; compilation of a comprehensive multi-sectoral service catalogue; and synthesis for spatial and policy analyses. Results We identified 756 sources, 75% individual organisations, 5% multi-organisations and 20% existing provider lists. 84% relate to health and social care, 10% labour, and 3% education and justice sectors each. 58% deliver care to adults, 37% to children &amp; adolescents, and 5% support carers. Further service mapping and RUCs will be presented. Discussion STREAMLINE pioneers in coordinated public mental health services and economics research at scale. Assessed levels of fragmentation call for better integration, improved transition, reduced spatial inequity and increased support for carers. Results increase the feasibility of service evaluations from a societal perspective. Planned public service atlas facilitates information and access for service users and carers. Funding: WWTF Key messages • New methods for harmonized health services and economics research allow comprehensive information for optimized future mental health service planning and financing. • Assessed levels of fragmentation highlight the need for better integration, improved transition, reduced spatial inequity and increased support for carers.

Prevalence of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales and carbapenemase-resistant Enterobacterales in British military cohorts

IntroductionTravel to resource-limited settings is a known risk for acquisition of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacterales (ESBL-PE) and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE), which are both associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We investigated...

Clade I mpox virus genomic diversity in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018–2024: Predominance of zoonotic transmission

Recent reports raise concerns on the changing epidemiology of mpox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). High-quality genomes were generated for 337 patients from 14/26 provinces to document whether the increase in number of cases is due to zoonotic spillover events or viral evolution, with enrichment of APOBEC3 mutations linked to human adaptation. Our study highlights two patterns of transmission contributing to the source of human cases. All new sequences from the eastern South Kivu province (n= 17; 4.8%) corresponded to the recently described clade Ib, associated with sexual contact and sustainedhuman-to-human transmission. By contrast, all other genomes are clade Ia, which exhibits high genetic diversity with low numbers of APOBEC3 mutations compared with clade Ib, suggesting multiplezoonotic introductions. The presence of multiple clade I variants in urban areas highlights the need for coordinated international response efforts and more studies on the transmission and the reservoir of mpox.

The Influence of Satisfaction on Service Quality and Intention to Recommend Mediated by Patient Loyalty

The purpose of this study is how the role of the Hospital as one of the health service facilities has a very strategic role in efforts to accelerate the improvement of the health of the Indonesian people. This strategic role is owned because the hospital is a technology-intensive health facility. This role is increasingly prominent considering the emergence of changes in disease epidemiology, changes in demographic structure, developments in science and technology, changes in the socio-economic structure of society, and services that are of better quality, friendly and able to meet the needs that demand changes in health service patterns in Indonesia. The analysis method is carried out through explanatory research, with the application of PLS / SEM. The concepts and problems studied look at the causal relationship, then explain the variables that cause the problems studied. The research sample was 384 respondents who had received services at a government tertiary hospital in Batam City. The findings of this study were patient satisfaction with the quality of service had a significant positive effect on patient loyalty. Patient satisfaction with the quality of service had a significant positive effect on the intention to recommend. Patient loyalty had a significant positive effect on the intention to recommend. Patient satisfaction with the quality of service had a significant positive effect on the intention to recommend with the mediation of patient loyalty

Mpox and Lessons Learned in the Light of the Recent Outbreak: A Narrative Review.

According to the WHO, more than 90,000 cases of mpox have been reported since the 2022 worldwide outbreak, which resulted in 167 deaths, while a new outbreak in Africa since 2023 has resulted in over 18,000 cases and 617 deaths. Mpox is a zoonosis caused by the monkeypox virus, a double-stranded DNA virus belonging to the Orthopoxvirus genus, which causes smallpox-like illness. Until 2022, cases were predominately located in West and Central Africa, with only sporadic cases and outbreaks reported in other parts of the world. During the 2022 outbreak, the primary mode of transmission was sexual contact among men who have sex with men. The changing epidemiology of mpox resulted in new disease phenotypes and populations at risk, disproportionally affecting people who live with HIV. Commonly presenting as a mild, self-limiting illness, mpox can cause severe and protracted disease in people with HIV with a CD4 count < 200 cell/mm3. The global emergence of mpox that followed and intersected with COVID-19 mobilized the scientific community and healthcare stakeholders to provide accurate diagnostics, preventive vaccines and treatment to those most affected. Despite existing gaps, this rapid response helped to contain the outbreak, but challenges remain as new variants emerge. Preparedness and readiness to respond to the next outbreak is crucial in order to minimize the impact to the most vulnerable.

Perspective on donor-derived infections in Italy.

Expected and unexpected donor-derived infections (DDI) are a rare event in solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients but are potentially associated with significant morbidity and mortality. To assure the microbial safety of transplantation, both national guidelines and the current, regional, and local epidemiology of infectious diseases must be considered. In the present paper the strategies adopted by the Italian National Center for Transplantation (CNT) since 2003 and their evolution to guarantee the safety of organ transplantation are reported. Starting in 2012 mandatory reporting to the CNT of all adverse reactions was started. The number and type of DDI reported to the CNT are currently being analyzed. The infectious diseases second opinion has written and updated the guidelines on the safety of organs for transplantation and supported the Italian transplant network for the use of organs from donors with suspected or documented potentially transmissible infections. A transplant safety network was developed in Italy in 2003 and has been updated according to the evolving knowledge and the changing epidemiology. This is an evolving field, and a continuous update of the recommendation is needed.

Spatial variations and predictors of overweight/obesity among under-five children in Ethiopia: A geographically weighted regression analysis of the 2019 Ethiopian Mini Demographic and Health Survey.

Overweight/ obesity among under-five children is an emerging public health issue of the twenty-first century. Due to the quick nutritional and epidemiological change, non-communicable diseases, premature death, disability, and reproductive disorders have grown in low-income countries. Besides, little attention has been given. Therefore, we aimed to explore spatial variations and predictors of overweight/obesity among under-five children in Ethiopia using a geospatial technique. A total weighted sample of 3,609 under-five children was included in the study. A cross-sectional study was conducted using a nationally representative sample of the 2019 Ethiopia Mini Demographic and Health Survey data set. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used to explore the spatial variation of obesity. SaTScan version 9.6 software was used to analyze the spatial cluster detection of overweight/obesity. Ordinary least square and geographically weighted regression analysis were employed to assess the association between an outcome variable and explanatory variables. A p-value of less than 0.05 was used to declare it statistically significant. The spatial distribution of overweight/obesity among under-five children in Ethiopia was clustered (Global Moran's I = 0.27, p-value<0.001). The significant hot spot areas or higher rates of childhood obesity, were found in Southern Amhara, Northwest Somalia, Border of Harari, central Addis Ababa, Eastern SNNPR, and Northwestern Oromia region. In spatial SaT Scan analysis, 79 significant clusters of overweight/obesity were detected. The primary clusters were located in SNNPR, Oromia, and Addis Ababa (RR = 1.48, LLR = 31.40, P-value < 0.001). In the geographically weighted regression analysis, urban residence, cesarean section, rich households, and female children were statistically significant predictors. Overweight or obesity among under-five children show spatial variations across Ethiopian regions. GWR analysis identifies cesarean section, wealth index, urban residence, and child sex as significant predictors. The Ministry of Health and Ethiopian Public Health Institute should target regions with these contributing predictors, promoting localized physical education, health education campaigns, and ongoing community monitoring to encourage active lifestyles and reduce sedentary behaviors among children.

Epidemiological changes and outcomes of people living with HIV admitted to the intensive care unit: a 14-year retrospective study.

Since 2016, the World Health Organization has recommended universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) for all people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (PLHIV). This recommendation may have influenced the characteristics and outcomes of PLHIV admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). This study aims to identify changes in the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of PLHIV admitted to the ICU, and their short- and medium-term outcomes before and after the implementation of universal ART (periods 2006-2015 and 2016-2019). This retrospective, observational, single-center study included all adult PLHIV admitted to the ICU of a University Hospital in Barcelona from 2006 to 2019. The study included 502 admissions involving 428 patients, predominantly men (75%) with a median (P25-P75) age of 47.5years (39.7-53.9). Ninety-one percent were diagnosed with HIV before admission, with 82% under ART and 60% admitted from the emergency department. In 2016-2019, there were more patients on ART pre-admission, reduced needs for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) and fewer in-ICU complications. ICU mortality was also lower (14% vs 7%). Predictors of in-ICU mortality included acquired immunodeficiency syndrome defining event (ADE)-related admissions, ICU complications, higher SOFA scores, IMV and renal replacement therapy (RRT) requirement. ART use during ICU admission was protective. Higher SOFA scores, admission from hospital wards, and more comorbidities predicted one-year mortality. The in-ICU mortality of critically ill PLHIV has decreased in recent years, likely due to changes in patient characteristics. Pre- and ICU admission features remain the primary predictors of short- and medium-term outcomes.

The Recent Increase in Invasive Bacterial Infections: A Report From the National COVID Cohort Collaborative

Background: When coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation efforts waned, viral respiratory infections (VRIs) surged, potentially increasing the risk of postviral invasive bacterial infections (IBIs). We sought to evaluate the change in epidemiology and relationships between specific VRIs and IBIs [complicated pneumonia, complicated sinusitis and invasive group A streptococcus (iGAS)] over time using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) dataset. Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of all prospectively collected pediatric (&lt;19 years old) and adult encounters at 58 N3C institutions, stratified by era: pre-pandemic (January 1, 2018, to February 28, 2020) versus pandemic (March 1, 2020, to June 1, 2023). We compared the characteristics and outcomes of patients with prespecified VRIs and IBIs, including correlation between VRI cases and subsequent IBI cases. Results: We identified 965,777 pediatric and 9,336,737 adult hospitalizations. Compared with pre-pandemic, pandemic-era children demonstrated higher mean monthly cases of adenovirus (121 vs. 79.1), iGAS (5.8 vs. 3.3), complicated pneumonia (282 vs. 178) and complicated sinusitis (29.8 vs. 16.3), P &lt; 0.005 for all. Among pandemic-era children, peak correlation between RSV cases and subsequent complicated sinusitis cases occurred with a 60-day lag (correlation coefficient 0.56, 95% confidence interval: 0.52–0.59, P &lt; 0.001) while peak correlation between influenza and complicated sinusitis occurred with a 33-day lag (0.55, 0.51–0.58, P &lt; 0.001). Correlation among other VRI–IBI pairs was modest during the pandemic and often lower than during the pre-pandemic era. Conclusions: Since COVID-19 emerged, mean monthly cases of iGAS, complicated pneumonia, and complicated sinusitis have been higher. Pandemic-era RSV and influenza cases were correlated with subsequent cases of complicated sinusitis in children. However, many other VRI–IBI correlations decreased during the pandemic.

Serotypic and genotypic profile of dengue virus outbreaks in India between 2011 and 2017.

The epidemiology of dengue has been demonstrating significant changes in recent years, with rising incidence of infection in countries with known endemicity and occurrence of fresh outbreaks in previously unaffected territories. India, which has been a traditional hotspot dengue virus (DENV) transmission in the endemic south-east Asian region, has also been affected by the sweeping changes in dengue epidemiology. Two remarkable developments characterize the alterations witnessed by India 2011-2017. Firstly, all parts of the country have witnessed abrupt replacement of existing DENV lineages with emerging novel strains. Secondly, co-circulation of multiple serotypes of DENV have been reported from all across the country 2011-2017; thereby hinting at the transition of the country towards hyper-endemicity. Considering the potential clinical implications of such epidemiological transformation in terms increasing involvement of pediatric patients and growing predisposition to serious complications, the present review provides an update on the serotypic and genotypic profile of dengue outbreaks that have been witnessed by different zones of India between 2011 and 2017. Dividing the country into northern, southern, eastern, western, central and north-eastern zones, we describe discrete zone-specific distribution patterns of DENV serotypes and genotypes and observe simultaneous circulation of different DENV strains in different parts of the country. Random shifts in the genetic characteristics of the circulating strains and the widespread co- circulation of all four serotypes underscore the need for undertaking continuous and representative molecular surveillance of the circulating DENV strains across the country for prompt identification of emerging strains and novel mutants; gain insights into the formulation of Dengue vaccines and develop a clearer understanding of the molecular basis of immune evasion, disease epidemiology and pathogenesis.

Circulating respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2 during 2021-2022 season in Tunisia: Epidemiological and dynamic changes

BackgroundChanging patterns in community respiratory virus activity were reported in different geographical locations during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence of circulating respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, during the season 2021-2022 in Tunisia. MethodsWe retrospectively enrolled 328 nasopharyngeal samples received at the Triage Center of Habib Bourguiba Hospital from patients with acute respiratory symptoms during September 2021-May 2022. All samples were screened for both SARS-CoV-2 and common respiratory viruses. This latter detection was performed using end-point multiplex RT-PCRs, Real-Time PCR, and AllplexTM Respiratory Panel 1 kit (Seegene) for Influenza Virus A (IFVA) and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) subtyping. ResultsAmong included patients, at least one viral pathogen was identified in 118 (35.9%) patients. The detection rate of SARS-CoV-2 was 21.6%. A low viral coinfection rate was observed (3.3%). The most prevalent pathogen among non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses was Enterovirus/Rhinovirus (HEV/HRV) (59.6%) followed by IFVA (15.3%) and Adenoviruses (ADV) (11.5%). Only IFVA H3N2 was found to circulate during the study period. A negative virus interaction was eventually induced by SARS-CoV-2, as it was shown by lower levels of activity of non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses (not exceeding 17.7%) while infections due to pandemic Omicron variants of concern became widespread. ConclusionsThis study highlights the relative return of community IFVA circulation during the 2021-2022 season in Tunisia. A negative viral interaction between SARS-CoV-2 and other respiratory viruses is highly suggested, which explains, in addition to the easing of COVID-19 restriction measures, the epidemiological changes in non-SARS-CoV-2 viruses circulation.

Epidemiological changes of scarlet fever before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Chongqing, China: a 19-year surveillance and prediction study

BackgroundThis study aimed to investigate the epidemiological changes in scarlet fever before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic (2005–2023) and predict the incidence of the disease in 2024 and 2025 in Chongqing Municipality, Southwest China.MethodsDescriptive analysis was used to summarize the characteristics of the scarlet fever epidemic. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to explore the distribution pattern of the disease, and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was constructed to predict its incidence in 2024 and 2025.ResultsBetween 2005 and 2023, 9,593 scarlet fever cases were reported in Chongqing, which resulted in an annual average incidence of 1.6694 per 100,000 people. Children aged 3–7 were the primary victims of this disease, with the highest average incidence found among children aged 6 (5.0002 per 100,000 people). Kindergarten children were the dominant infected population, accounting for as much as 54.32% of cases, followed by students (34.09%). The incidence for the male was 1.51 times greater than that for the female. The monthly distribution of the incidence showed a bimodal pattern, with one peak occurring between April and June and another in November or December. The spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that scarlet fever cases were markedly clustered; the areas with higher incidence were mainly concentrated in Chongqing’s urban areas and its adjacent districts, and gradually spreading to remote areas after 2020. The incidence of scarlet fever increased by 106.54% and 39.33% in the post-upsurge period (2015–2019) and the dynamic zero-COVID period (2020–2022), respectively, compared to the pre-upsurge period (2005–2014) (P < 0.001). During the dynamic zero-COVID period, the incidence of scarlet fever decreased by 68.61%, 25.66%, and 10.59% (P < 0.001) in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, compared to the predicted incidence. In 2023, after the dynamic zero-COVID period, the reported cases decreased to 1.5168 per 100,000 people unexpectedly instead of increasing. The cases of scarlet fever are predicted to increase in 2024 (675 cases) and 2025 (705 cases).ConclusionsChildren aged 3–7 years are the most affected population, particularly males, and kindergartens and primary schools serving as transmission hotspots. It is predicted that the high incidence of scarlet fever in Chongqing will persist in 2024 and 2025, and the outer districts (counties) beyond urban zone would bear the brunt of the impact. Therefore, imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas.

The Uprise of Human Leishmaniasis in Tuscany, Central Italy: Clinical and Epidemiological Data from a Multicenter Study.

Human leishmaniasis is facing important epidemiological changes in Southern Europe, driven by increased urbanization, climate changes, emerging of new animal reservoirs, shifts in human behavior and a growing population of immunocompromised and elderly individuals. In this evolving epidemiological landscape, we analyzed the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of human leishmaniasis in the Tuscany region of Central Italy. Through a multicentric retrospective analysis, we collected clinical and demographic data about all cases of leishmaniasis recorded between 2018 and 2023. We observed 176 cases of human leishmaniasis, with 128 (72.7%) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and 47 (26.7%) cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL). Among these, 92.2% of VL and 85.1% of CL cases were autochthonous. The cumulative incidence of autochthonous human leishmaniasis was 0.22 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2018, but reached 1.81/100,000 in 2023. We identified three main areas of transmission: around the city of Florence (North-East Tuscany), around Grosseto city (South-West Tuscany) and Elba Island. Our findings confirm that the epidemiology of leishmaniasis is undergoing significant changes in Central Italy. Awareness towards this emerging health threat and surveillance strategies need to be improved in order to reliably assess the disease's burden. Further research is needed in a "One-Health" perspective, to clarify the epidemiological dynamics at the environmental, reservoir, vector and human levels. The role of climate change and specific climatic factors affecting the epidemiological patterns of human leishmaniasis should be assessed. Further knowledge in these fields would promote targeted control and prevention strategies at regional and national levels.

Space-time dynamics of the dengue epidemic in Brazil, 2024: an insight for decision making

BackgroundDengue is a vector-borne viral infection caused by the dengue virus transmitted to humans primarily by Aedes aegypti. The year 2024 has been a historic year for dengue in Brazil, with the highest number of probable cases ever registered. Herein, we analyze the temporal trend and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue cases in Brazil during the first nine epidemiological weeks (EW) of 2024.MethodsThis is an ecological study, including all probable cases of dengue in Brazil during the period, carried out in two steps: time series analysis to assess the temporal trend and spatial analysis to identify high-risk clusters.Results1,345,801 probable cases of dengue were reported. The regions with the highest increasing trend were the Northeast with an average epidemiologic week percent change (AEPC) of 52.4 (95% CI: 45.5–59.7; p < 0.001) and the South with 35.9 (95% CI: 27.7–44.5; p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant increasing trend in all states, except Acre (AEPC = -4.1; 95% CI: -16.3–10; p = 0.55), Amapá (AEPC = 1.3; 95% CI: -16.2–22.3; p = 0.9) and Espírito Santo (AEPC = 8.9; 95% CI: -15.7–40.6; p = 0.5). The retrospective space-time analysis showed a cluster within the Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions, with a radius of 515.3 km, in which 1,267 municipalities and 525,324 of the cases were concentrated (RR = 6.3; p < 0.001). Regarding the spatial variation of the temporal trend, 21 risk areas were found, all of them located in Southeast or Central-West states. The area with the highest relative risk was Minas Gerais state, where 5,748 cases were concentrated (RR = 8.1; p < 0.001). Finally, a purely spatial analysis revealed 25 clusters, the one with the highest relative risk being composed of two municipalities in Acre (RR = 6.9; p < 0.001).ConclusionsWe described a detailed temporal-spatial analysis of dengue cases in the first EWs of 2024 in Brazil, which were mainly concentrated in the Southeast and Central-West regions. Overall, it is recommended that governments adopt public policies to control the the vector population in high-risk areas, as well as to prevent the spread of dengue fever to other areas of Brazil.

Global, regional, and national burden of preterm birth, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021

Preterm birth and its complications are leading causes of mortality among children under five years of age. Given the increasing burden of preterm birth on neonatal mortality and long-term health outcomes worldwide, a comprehensive global analysis is essential to guide effective public health interventions and policies. This study aims to assess the burden of preterm birth at the global, regional, and national levels. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analysed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as primary outcomes for preterm birth from 1990 to 2021at global, regional, and national levels. Data were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, decomposition analysis, and the health inequality concentration index. Globally, the incidence, mortality and DALYs due to preterm birth have shown a declining trend, but ASIR started to increase in 2016. Males were more commonly born preterm than females (12329075.82, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12192632.55-12464605.4 vs. 9224694.94, 95% UI: 9113876.1-9330107.89). Changes in DALYs were primarily due to epidemiological change (111.97%) and population (-21.59%). Low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions increased in annual incidence cases (43.1%, 95% UI: 40.17-46.09), while high SDI regions decreased in annual incidence cases (-9.6%, 95% UI:-11.45 to-7.79). The highest annual mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (295490.66, 95% UI: 241762.78-353624.41) and South Asia (32760273.93, 95% UI: 27295547.76-39070225.69). Western sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increase in annual incidence (98.95%, 95% UI: 94.77 to 103.09), and Australasia had the lowest annual mortality (287.18, 95% UI: 244.26-339.42) and DALYs (61081.4, 95% UI: 50897.33-73069.96). Western sub-Saharan Africa also had the highest ASMR (21.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-25.89). The highest ASIR (543.78, 95% CI: 535.11-553.21) and age-standardized DALYs (2064.65, 95% CI: 1717.27-2473.36) both occurred in South Asia, while the lowest ASIR and age-standardized DALYs were seen in East Asia (147.31, 95% CI: 144.22-150.85) and High-income Asia Pacific (143.32, 95% CI: 117.9-167.25). India, Nigeria, and Pakistan ranked highest globally in terms of annual incidence cases, mortality, and DALYs, while the lowest annual incidence, mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in Tokelau (2.34, 95% UI: 2.12-2.56), San Marino (0.04, 95% UI: 0.02-0.07) and Tokelau (17.22, 95% UI: 11.11-24.95). While the global burden of preterm birth has decreased, significant disparities persist, especially in low SDI regions. There is a need for more refined policies and preventive measures to effectively address preterm birth. No funds, grants, or other support was received.

NDM-5-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae ST258 in a university hospital in Argentina

Abstract Background A drastic increase in carbapenem resistance among Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates occurred during the period 2019–22. Three epidemiological changes could be evidenced: (i) NDM became the predominant carbapenemase; (ii) NDM-5 replaced NDM-1; and (iii) the emergence of NDM-producing K. pneumoniae ST258 (NDM-KpST258). Materials and methods Carbapenem-resistant K. pneumoniae isolates from patients on the ICU of a university hospital of Buenos Aires were studied during the period 2019–22. Identification was performed by MS and susceptibility by the Phoenix system (broth microdilution for colistin). Carbapenemase production was detected phenotypically. Molecular studies included PCR with specific primers and WGS (in some isolates). Results NDM-producing K. pneumoniae was statistically associated with the use of ceftazidime/avibactam between 2019 and April 2021, whereas in the period from May 2021 to December 2022, it seemed to be related to the presence of NDM-5-KpST258. A gradual increase in the number of urease-negative NDM-Kp-ST258 during 2019–22 was observed. The plasmid origin of NDM-5 was supported by its presence on the IncFII incompatibility group plasmid. Conclusions Our study describes the first outbreak of NDM5-KpST258 at an ICU in Argentina, remarkably associated with considerable changes in the carbapenemase epidemiology. The intrinsic characteristics of ST258 may contribute to increased spread of NDM in hospital settings, resembling KPC-2 dissemination.