Changes In ET0 Research Articles

Effect of Elevation on Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration under Climate Change in Northwest China

Through its effects on water and energy cycles, elevation plays an important role in modulating the spatial distribution of climatic changes in mountainous regions. A key hydrological indicator, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) reflects the maximum amount of water transferred to the atmosphere from the land surface. The current scarcity of information regarding elevation’s impact on variation in ET0 under climate change limits our understanding of the extent to which elevation modulates interactions between ET0 and climate change and of the attendant processes involved. Drawing upon long-term (1960–2017) meteorological observations from 84 stations in Northwest China (NWC), we examined (i) spatial and temporal variations in ET0; (ii) the sensitivity and contribution of air temperature (T), sunshine duration (SD), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) to ET0; (iii) the existence of a relationship between elevation and ET0 trends; and (iv) the major factor in controlling this relationship by using attribution analysis. Overall, annual ET0 in NWC showed a declining trend between 1960 and 2017, though at a change point in 1993, the trend shifted from a decline to a rise. A significant correlation between temporal change in ET0 and elevation confirmed the existence of a relationship between elevation and ET0 variation. The effect of elevation on changes in ET0 depended mainly on the elevation-based tradeoff between the contributions of T and WS: WS was the primary factor contributing to the decrease in ET0 below 2000 m, and T was the dominant factor contributing to the increase of ET0 above 2000 m. The rate of reduction in WS declined as elevation increased, thereby diminishing its contribution to variation in ET0. The present study’s results can serve to guide agricultural irrigation in different elevation zones under NWC’s evolving climatic conditions.

Spatio-Temporal Variation of Reference Evapotranspiration and Its Climatic Drivers over the Tibetan Plateau during 1970–2018

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key component of hydrologic cycle and it is important for water resources management. Analysis of ET0 changes is particularly critical for understanding the impacts of climatic change on hydrology in ecologically fragile regions. In this study, using the Penman–Monteith method and the Mann–Kendall test, the variation characteristics of ET0 on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from 1970 to 2018 was analyzed, and the dominant climatic factors controlling the change of ET0 was also explored. The result shows that in TP region: (1) there was an abrupt change in the trend of ET0 around 1997, and the ET0 declined at a rate of −25.9 mm/decade during 1970–1996 but increased by 31.1 mm/decade during 1997–2018; (2) ET0 is most sensitive to solar radiation, then relative humidity, wind speed and mean temperature; (3) the decrease of ET0 before 1997 was mainly due to the decline of wind speed and the increase of relative humidity, while the increase of ET0 after 1997 was mainly due to the decrease of relative humidity. The results of this study can provide data reference for the research of water balance on the TP.

Temporal variations in reference evapotranspiration in the Tarim River basin, Central Asia.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is important for agricultural production and the hydrological cycle. Knowledge of ET0 can aid the appropriate allocation of irrigation water in arid regions. This study analyzed the trends in ET0 over different timescales in the Tarim River basin (TRB), Central Asia. ET0 was calculated by the Penman-Monteith method using data from 1960–2017 from 30 meteorological stations located in the TRB. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test with trend-free prewhitening and Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends in ET0 variation. The results showed that the mean ET0 decreased at a rate of 0.49 mm·10 a-1 on an annual timescale. The mean ET0 exhibited a decreasing trend in summer and increasing trends in other seasons. The effects of climatic factors on ET0 were assessed by sensitivity analysis and contribution rate analysis. Maximum temperature (Tmax), relative humidity (RH) and wind speed (WS) showed important effects on ET0. However, WS, which decreased, was the key element that induced changes in ET0 in the TRB. This work provides an important baseline for the management of agricultural water resources and scientific planning in agriculture.

Effect of de-trending climatic parameters on temporal changes of reference evapotranspiration in the eastern Himalayan region of Sikkim, India

AbstractReference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is an essential factor in irrigation scheduling, climate change studies, and drought assessment. The study's main objective was to identify the influences of detrending input climatic parameters (CPs) on ET0 using linear and nonlinear approaches throughout 1980–2015 in Gangtok, East Sikkim, India. The benchmark values of ET0 were calculated using the global standard FAO56 Penman–Montieth equation. The ET0-related CPs included for the analysis are maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum relative humidity (RHmax), minimum relative humidity (RHmin), and sunshine duration (SSH). The linear and nonlinear trends in various CPs affect ET0 change. Linearly detrended series was obtained by linear regression method whereas, nonlinearly detrended series was obtained using the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise method. Twenty-three scenarios, including the original scenario, 11 scenarios in Group 1 (CPs de-trended linearly), and 11 scenarios in Group 2 (CPs de-trended nonlinearly) were generated. Influences of Tmax and SSH were more substantial than the influences of other CPs for both Group 1 and Group 2. The SSH masked the weak influence of other CPs. The effects of the trends in CPs, especially of SSH and Tmax, were clearly shown. The ET0 values decreased significantly during 1980–2015; however, no significant decreasing trend was observed in the case of SSH, during the same period. The nonlinear detrending gave closer results to the benchmark values as compared to linear detrending because of non-monotone variations of the ET0 and CPs. Therefore, the results from nonlinear detrending were more plausible as compared to linear detrending. The diminishing trend of ET0 prompted an overall alleviation of the dry spell, hence there would be a somewhat lower risk of water use in the study region.

Changes in the reference evapotranspiration and contributions of climate factors over the Indo–China Peninsula during 1961–2017

AbstractGiven the key roles of the Indo–China Peninsula (ICP) in weather and climate systems, hydrometeorology, and ecology, the annual and monthly changes in the Food and Agriculture Organization‐56 Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which was calculated based on the Climatic Research Unit datasets, were investigated in ICP during 1961–2017. The annual ICP ET0 significantly (p < .05) increased, with different increasing tendencies in most months. In particular, larger and more significant (p < .05) ET0 values were found during October–December. The annual and monthly ET0 changes showed evident spatial differences, characterized by increases in more than 50% of the ICP area except for decreases in around 70% of that area during March–May. A sensitivity experiment‐based separation method was utilized to evaluate the contribution of each influential factor, and the corresponding determinants were identified by comparing the contributions. Results showed that the annual ICP ET0 increase was attributed to the increased vapour pressure deficit (Vpd). However, the annual determinants varied spatially, with net solar radiation (Rn) in the southern region of ICP, wind speed (Wnd) in the northeast, and Vpd in the remaining regions. The monthly ICP determinant was Wnd in January, March–May and December, and Vpd for the remaining months. Despite different spatial patterns of monthly dominants, Vpd and Wnd were the determinants with the most extensive distributions over ICP (>75% of ICP in total). The results of this study can significantly fulfil the research gap regarding the ICP ET0 changes and the underlying mechanisms. Meanwhile, this study provides fundamental and necessary information for protecting biodiversity and understanding hydrometeorological extreme events, thus promoting specific measures to sustain the ICP development.

Attribution analyses of reference evapotranspiration changes in China incorporating surface resistance change response to elevated CO2

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key component of the water cycle. In this study, a modified Penman–Monteith method incorporating the CO2 effect on surface resistance was used to estimate past change in ET0 in China for 1961–2019 and to project future changes for 2040–2099. A partial-differential equation was used to attribute the changes in ET0. Results indicated the following. (1) A shift point in the annual ET0 series occurred in 1993, in which annual ET0 in China had been decreasing and then increased significantly by −18.93 and 11.19 mm·decade-1 before and after 1993, respectively, with ET0 having changed most drastically within the temperate continental climate zone. (2) Wind speed and solar radiation were the major dominant factors responsible for the change in ET0 during 1961–1992, and their contribution rates were 48.30 and 38.92 %, respectively. During 1993–2019, increasing maximum air temperature was the dominant factor contributing to increasing ET0, with a contribution rate of 81.71%, yet wind speed was the dominant factor affecting ET0 changes at 45% of the stations in China. (3) In future projections, maximum air temperature is expected to be the dominant factor influencing the increase in ET0, the values of which were projected at 1.49 and 16.05 mm·decade-1 during 2040–2099 under RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, with projections from five GCMs. The increasing surface resistance response to elevated CO2 was found to be an important contributor to the decrease in ET0. Particularly for the RCP8.5 scenario, the increase in surface resistance was found to lead to the decrease in ET0 by −0.68 mm·year−1 (-42.37%). This suggests that historical and future tendencies towards aridity in China may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously assumed.

Future trend and sensitivity analysis of evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin

Study regionSenegal River Basin in West Africa. Study focusThis work aimed to assess reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends and its sensitivity to climate variables on the period 2036–2065 in the Senegal River basin. Seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) and seven Regional Climate Models (RCMs) of the CMIP5 project were used under the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The performance of GCMs and RCMs was first evaluated by comparing their outputs with the reanalyses data. The change of ET0 is determined between the periods 1971–2000 and 2036–2065. A sensitivity coefficient was calculated to analyze the influence of climatic variables on ET0. Finally, the Mann Kendall test and Sen slope were used to detect future trends in ET0 and climate variables. New hydrological insights for the regionIt was found that RCMs were here more robust than GCMs in estimating reference evapotranspiration over the period 1984–2000. Compared to the period 1971–2000, the RCMs show that ET0 will increase by 14–293 mm under RCP4.5 and by 55–387 mm under RCP8.5 according to the climatic zones. The maximum values are observed in Sahelian zone and the minimum one in Guinean area. The sensitivity analysis shows that ET0 is more sensitive to relative humidity, maximum temperature and solar radiation. The trend analysis reveals, generally, a significant increase in ET0 and in maximum and minimum temperatures in the period 2036–2065 under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This means that ET0 will not be stationary and may continue to increase after 2065 because of the increase of temperature.

Detection and attribution of reference evapotranspiration change (1951–2020) in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China

AbstractReference evapotranspiration (ET0) indicates atmospheric evaporating capability over a hypothetical reference surface. ET0 is an important hydrological and meteorological variable to reflect climate change. This is particularly true for the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB), which is vulnerable and sensitive to changing environment. This study aims to provide a newer and longer description of ET0 change and the causes at basin and subbasin scales in the UYRB. Based on the observed data from 1951 to 2020, ET0 in the entire UYRB and subbasins is estimated using the Penman–Montieth method with local calibration. The spatial–temporal characteristics in ET0 change are identified from time-series analysis. Our results show that ET0 increases significantly by 3.3 mm/year in the entire UYRB. Stations with significant increases in annual ET0 are concentrated in the central part of the UYRB, where the mean annual ET0 is low. We further propose an improved method to assess the causes of ET0 change. Our results suggest that the relative humidity decrease has the most dominant effect, causing 4.69 mm/year of ET0 increase. Temperature increase tends to cause 1.26 mm/year of ET0 increase. Sunshine duration decrease and wind speed decrease contribute to 1.96 and 0.48 mm/year of ET0 decrease.

Temporal and spatial variations of meteorological elements and reference crop evapotranspiration in Alpine regions of Tibet, China.

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an important parameter for characterization of the hydrological cycle, and it is also important for agricultural, environmental, and other studies. In this study, by collecting the daily meteorological data of 31 base stations in high-altitude areas of Tibet for 35 consecutive years, the daily reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) of each base station is calculated by the ASCE Penman-Monteith formula. The Mann-Kendall method is applied primarily to test the trend of meteorological elements and ET0. In addition, the software ArcGIS was used to generate spatial interpolation distribution maps of meteorological elements and ET0 so that the spatio-temporal variation trend of each base station is carried out. The ET0 in Shigatse shows an insignificant downward trend, while the other six regions show an upward trend, which is related to temperature and humidity directly with R2 of 0.23 and 0.67. The relative humidity (RH) and sunshine duration (SD) in Tibet show an overall three-step distribution in the east, middle, and west with RH decreasing from east to west and SD increasing from east to west. Annual cumulative ET0 of Ngari is the largest and decreases from west to east gradually, while ET0 increasing from east (lower elevation) to west (higher elevation) of Tibet with ranging from 730 to 1255 mm/year. This study not only is important for understanding of ET0 changes but also provides the preliminary and elementary reference for agricultural water management in Tibet with high elevation.

Elevation‐dependent changes in reference evapotranspiration due to climate change

AbstractThe Food and Agriculture Organizations' (FAO) Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a crucial index in the research of water and energy balance. Temporal and spatial variations in ET0 from 1981–2017 were investigated in the Hengduan Mountains, China. The results showed a change point around the year 2000 in ET0 series. ET0 decreased and increased significantly by +3.200 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 1981–2000 and by +4.109 mm/year (p < 0.01) from 2001–2017, respectively. The contribution analysis shows that the positive significant contribution of air temperature (TA) was offset by negative effects of decreases in downward shortwave radiation (Rs) and wind speed (WS) and an increase in actual vapour pressure (ea), causing the decrease in ET0 from 1981 to 2000. WS was the largest contributing factor for the decrease in ET0 from 1981 to 2000 during spring, winter and annually, while Rs and ea were the largest negative contributors in summer and autumn, respectively. An increase in TA was responsible for the increase in ET0 in all seasons except winter and the annual scale in 2001–2017. The sensitivity analysis shows that ET0 was most sensitive to TA, and WS was the least sensitive variable. The trends of ET0 increased with elevation; we denote this as the elevation‐dependence of ET0 changes. The elevation‐dependence was also noted for the trends of WS and ea, with higher elevations showing larger changes in WS and lower changes in ea. Besides, the sensitivities of TA, Rs and ea decreased with elevation, while that of WS increased slightly with elevation. A comprehensive investigation into the trends of climatic drivers and their sensitivities revealed complex trends of the contributions of climatic variables on ET0 with elevation, with no uniform trend existed in seasons. The results will contribute to our understanding of the response of ET0 to climate change in a mountainous area, and provide a guideline for the water resources management under climate change.

Variation in Reference Evapotranspiration over the Tibetan Plateau during 1961–2017: Spatiotemporal Variations, Future Trends and Links to Other Climatic Factors

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key factor in the hydrological cycle and energy cycle. In the context of rapid climate change, studying the dynamic changes in ET0 in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is of great significance for water resource management in Asian countries. This study uses the Penman–Monteith formula to calculate the daily ET0 of the TP and subsequently uses the Mann–Kendall (MK) test, cumulative anomaly curve, and sliding t-test to identify abrupt change points. Morlet wavelet analysis and the Hurst index based on rescaled range analysis (R/S) are utilized to predict the future trends of ET0. The Spearman correlation coefficient is used to explore the relationship between ET0 changes and other climate factors. The results show that the ET0 on the TP exhibited an increasing trend from 1961 to 2017, with the most significant increase occurring in winter; an abrupt change to a tendency to decrease occurred in 1988, and another abrupt change to a tendency to increase occurred in 2005. Spatially, the ET0 of the TP shows an increasing trend from east to west. The change trend of the ET0 on the TP will not be sustainable into the future. In addition, the mean temperature has the greatest impact on the ET0 changes in the TP.

Projected Changes in Reference Evapotranspiration in California and Nevada: Implications for Drought and Wildland Fire Danger

AbstractRecent high impact wildfires and droughts in California and Nevada have been linked to extremes in the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), respectively. Both indices are dependent on reference evapotranspiration (ET0). Future changes in ET0 for California and Nevada are examined, calculated from global climate model simulations downscaled by Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). ET0 increases of 13–18% at seasonal timescales are projected by late century (2070–2099), with greatest relative increases in winter and spring. Seasonal ET0 increases are most strongly driven by warmer temperatures, with increasing specific humidity having a smaller, but noteworthy, counter tendency. Extreme (95th percentile) EDDI values on the 2‐week timescale have coincided with recent large wildfires in the area. Two‐week EDDI extremes are projected to increase by 6–10 times during summer and 4–6 times during autumn by the end of the century. On multiyear timescales, the occurrence of extreme droughts based on 3‐year SPEI below the historical fifth percentile, similar to that experienced during the 2012–2016 drought across the region, is projected to increase 3–15 times by late century. Positive trends in extreme multiyear droughts will further increase seasonal fire potential through degraded forests and increased fuel loads and flammability. Understanding how these drought metrics change on various climate timescales at the local level can provide fundamental information to support the development of long‐term adaptation strategies for wildland fire and water resource management.

Sensitivity analysis of potential evapotranspiration to key climatic factors in the Shiyang River Basin

Abstract This paper focuses on determining the spatial and temporal characteristics of the sensitivity coefficients (SCs) between potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and key climatic factors across the Shiyang River Basin (SYRB) from 1981 to 2015. Penman–Monteith equation and a sensitivity analysis were used to calculate ET0 and the SCs for key climatic factors. Sen's slope was used to analyze the observed series. According to the results, the sensitivity significances were in the order of relative humidity (RH) > net solar radiation (NSR) > wind speed (WS) > maximum air temperature (Tmax) > minimum air temperature (Tmin). The SCs for the RH and NSR were larger in the upper mountainous region, while the other three coefficients were larger in the middle and lower reaches. All five climatic factors for the ET0 SCs showed increasing trends in the mountainous region, and the Tmax, WS and RH SCs increased in the middle and lower reaches. Over the past 35 years, the change in ET0 was dominated by the air temperature (T), RH and NSR, and the increase in ET0 during the studied period was mainly due to the increases in T and NSR.

Spatiotemporal variation of reference evapotranspiration in Shanxi Province, China

Based on data of daily precipitation, temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, wind speed and vapor pressure of 70 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2019 in Shanxi Province, the Penman-Monteith model was applied to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (ET0). The spatiotemporal variations of ET0 as well as the ET0 in different climatic zones and at different altitudes were quantitatively analyzed. The results showed that the mean annual ET0 decreased from west to east in 1960-2019. A jumping point was detected in 1982, with the mean annual ET0 increased both in 1960-1982 and 1983-2019. The monthly and ten-day changes of ET0 showed single peak curves. The variation of ET0 in different climatic zones was as follows: ET0 in temperate and semi-arid areas was higher than that in warm temperate and semi-humid areas and warm temperate and semi-arid areas in spring, summer, autumn and the whole year, while in winter, the highest ET0 was in warm temperate and semi-humid areas. ET0 varied with altitudes, with ET0 in <660 m altitude areas being higher than that in other altitudes in summer, autumn, winter and the whole year.

Regionalization of evapotranspiration in India using fuzzy dynamic clustering approach. Part 2: Applications of regions

AbstractAccurate estimation of ET0, and determination of its trend/variability and sensitivity to changes in climate variables is essential at regional scale for different applications. These are attempted for India by considering 18 homogeneous ET0 regions formed in companion paper. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recommends Penman–Monteith (PM) equation for ET0 estimation, which requires information on several climate variables. The equation cannot be used in data‐sparse areas where information/forecasts on one or more required climate variables is unavailable/unreliable. To address this, relevance vector regression (RVR) relationships are developed in this paper for the 18 homogeneous regions to arrive at FAO‐PM estimate of ET0 from subsets of its predictor climate variables, which could be typically expected in data‐sparse areas. The developed relationships are shown to be better in arriving at ET0 estimates when compared to multiple linear regression (MLR) relationships and three widely used empirical equations (Hargreaves, Mcguinness–Bordne, Priestly–Taylor). Regional trend analysis revealed that ET0 is significantly decreasing (increasing) in most regions located in north (south) India. Sensitivity of ET0 and surface runoff to changes in their predictor climate variables is determined for each region by considering third‐order Taylor series approximation of their functional relationships. Key climate variable(s) that govern ET0 changes in each region are identified. Results indicate that at annual scale solar radiation and relative humidity govern ET0 changes in regions located in south and north‐east India, whereas wind speed followed by relative humidity mostly influence the ET0 changes over other regions. Existence of evaporation paradox in four regions and validity of Bouchet's complementary relationship between ET0, actual evapotranspiration (ETa), and precipitation in 11 regions is also established. Significant divergence in trend of ET0 and ETa was evident in north‐east India.

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Meteorological Factors on Reference Evapotranspiration Changes in Beijing, 1958–2017

The effects of meteorological factors on reference evapotranspiration (ET0) are variable on different time scales, although research tends to focus only on certain time scales. Therefore, using the meteorological data from 1958 to 2017 of Beijing, China, ET0 values over the last 60 years were calculated using Penman–Monteith method. The variation in ET0 values was thus analyzed against four meteorological factors over different time scales. The sensitivity of ET0 to these factors was assessed using a sensitivity coefficient, while the contribution of each factor to ET0 change was quantified by combining this sensitivity coefficient with the factor’s relative change rate over multiple time scales. The results showed that the sensitivity coefficient of relative humidity over different time scales were all negative, while the sensitivity coefficients of net radiation, temperature and wind speed were mostly positive. The main sensitivity factors of ET0 on different time scales varied. On annual time scales, the main factors were relative humidity and temperature. Over annual time scales, relative humidity and net radiation alternated as the main sensitivity factor; while over interannual time scales, the most sensitive factor was relative humidity during 1958–1979 and net radiation thereafter. The contribution of these four meteorological factors to ET0 also fluctuated greatly on intra-annual time scales. On daily time scales, the contributions of temperature and wind speed at the start and end of the year were large, while net radiation and relative humidity were dominant mid-year. On monthly to seasonal time scales, the contributions of these four meteorological factors to ET0 were notable. The contribution of relative humidity was largest in spring and autumn; net radiation was dominant in summer, while temperature and wind speed were dominant in winter. This research on the temporal variability of ET0 response factors is of great significance for understanding regional climate change.

Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data

Understanding evapotranspiration and its long-term trends is essential for water cycle studies, modeling and for water uses. Spatial and temporal analysis of evapotranspiration is therefore important for the management of water resources, particularly in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) as well as its sensitivity to climatic variables in the Senegal River basin. Mann-Kendall’s test and Sen’s slope were used to detect trends and amplitude changes in ET0 and climatic variables that most influence ET0. Results show a significant increase in annual ET0 for 32% of the watershed area over the 1984–2017 period. A significant decrease in annual ET0 is observed for less than 1% of the basin area, mainly in the Sahelian zone. On a seasonal scale, ET0 increases significantly for 32% of the basin area during the dry season and decreases significantly for 4% of the basin during the rainy season. Annual maximum, minimum temperatures and relative humidity increase significantly for 68%, 81% and 37% of the basin, respectively. However, a significant decrease in wind speed is noted in the Sahelian part of the basin. The wind speed decrease and relative humidity increase lead to the decrease in ET0 and highlight a “paradox of evaporation” in the Sahelian part of the Senegal River basin. Sensitivity analysis reveals that, in the Senegal River basin, ET0 is more sensitive to relative humidity, maximum temperature and solar radiation.

Impacts of Climatic Change on Reference Crop Evapotranspiration across Different Climatic Zones of Ningxia at Multi-Time Scales from 1957 to 2018

The impact of global climate change on agroecosystems is growing, affecting reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) and subsequent agricultural water management. In this study, the climate factors temporal trends, the spatiotemporal variation, and the climate driving factors of ET0 at different time scales were evaluated across the Northern Yellow River Irrigation Area (NYR), Central Arid Zone (CAZ), and Southern Mountain Area (SMA) of Ningxia based on 20 climatic stations’ daily data from 1957 to 2018. The results showed that the Tmean (daily mean air temperature), Tmax (daily maximum air temperature), and Tmin (daily minimum air temperature) all had increased significantly over the past 62 years, whilst RH (relative humidity), U2 (wind speed at 2 m height), and SD (sunshine duration) had significantly decreasing trends across all climatic zones. At monthly scale, the ET0 was mainly concentrated from April to September. And at annual and seasonal scales, the overall increasing trends were more pronounced in NX, NYR, and SMA, while CAZ was the opposite. For the spatial distribution, ET0 presented a trend of rising first and then falling at all time scales. The abrupt change point for climatic factors and ET0 series was obtained at approximately 1990 across all climatic zones, and the ET0 had a long period of 25a and a short period of 10a at annual scale, while it was 15a and 5a at seasonal scale. RH and Tmax were the most sensitive climatic factors at the annual and seasonal scales, while the largest contribution rates were Tmax and SD. This study not only is important for the understanding of ET0 changes but also provides the preliminary and elementary reference for agriculture water management in Ningxia.

Evapotranspiration as a response to climate variability and ecosystem changes in southwest, China

The aim of our study is to quantify the relationship between ecosystem and climate variables in southwest China. We further examined spatiotemporal distribution patterns of daily reference evapotranspiration (ET0) and ecosystem types through integrated approaches, including spatiotemporal interpolation, Penman–Monteith, Mann–Kendall test, statistical correlation analysis and transition matrix based on those datasets including observation climate data, satellite remote sensing images (MODIS and Landsat) and observed ecosystem data. The following results are achieved. First, changes of ET0 were greatly influenced by the combined effects of precipitation (with a decrease rate of −13 mm/10 years) and temperature (with a decrease rate of + 0.17 ℃/10 years). The annual average ET0 increased by + 2.1 mm/10 years, and the increased ET0 are more than 25% of the total area. Second, evapotranspiration was regarded as a sensitive indicator of climate and ecosystem feedbacks, and these ecosystem types have a great transformation, including forest, agriculture, and grass. Forest and grass were distributed primarily in the southern and eastern mountain areas, grass was in high mountains area while agriculture was prevalent in basin areas respond to climate changes. The area of forest converted to grass was 3670 km2, which was greater than transition from grass to forest (1720 km2). Correlation coefficients of evapotranspiration and NDVI were positive in forest and negative in agriculture. Third, the effects of these changes on climate vegetation and ecosystem process feedbacks on the quickly warming southwest China are potentially significant. Although the variation in ecosystem types was combined effects caused by climate variation and human activities, an effective ecological restoration program “Grain for Green” has improved the environmental conditions in southwest China.

Investigation into the Effects of Climate Change on Reference Evapotranspiration Using the HadCM3 and LARS-WG

This study evaluates the effect of climate change on reference evapotranspiration (ET0), which is one of the most important variables in water resources management and irrigation scheduling. For this purpose, daily weather data of 30 Iranian weather stations from 1981 and 2010 were used. The HadCM3 statistical model was applied to report the output subscale of LARS-WG and to predict the weather information by A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios in three periods: 2011–2045, 2046–2079, and 2080–2113. The ET0 values were estimated by the Ref-ET software. The results indicated that the ET0 will rise from 2011 to 2113 approximately in all stations under three scenarios. The ET0 changes percentages in the A1B scenario during three periods from 2011 to 2113 were found to be 0.98%, 5.18%, and 12.17% compared to base period, respectively, while for the B1 scenario, they were calculated as 0.67%, 4.07%, and 6.61% and for the A2 scenario, they were observed as 0.59%, 5.35%, and 9.38%, respectively. Thus, the highest increase of the ET0 will happen from 2080 to 2113 under the A1B scenario; however, the lowest will occur between 2046 and 2079 under the B1 scenario. Furthermore, the assessment of uncertainty in the ET0 calculated by the different scenarios showed that the ET0 predicted under the A2 scenario was more reliable than the others. The spatial distribution of the ET0 showed that the highest ET0 amount in all scenarios belonged to the southeast and the west of the studied area. The most noticeable point of the results was that the ET0 differs from one scenario to another and from a period to another.