Changes In Winter Temperature Research Articles

Rehardening capacity in the shoots and buds of three European pear (Pyrus communis [L.]) cultivars following a warm spell in midwinter

The rates of dehardening and rehardening in response to rapid temperature changes in winter are important traits that affect the survival, growth and productivity of the European pear (Pyrus communis [L.]) cultivars in northern countries. The frost hardiness (FH) of shoots of three pear cultivars were studied by a series of freezing tests, after sampling in natural conditions, after dehardening in a growth chamber at 5 °C for 3–4 days (D1) and 16 days (D2), and then after rehardening at −7 °C for 5–7 days (R1 and R2). The FH was assessed by a differential thermal analysis (DTA) to measure the low temperature exotherm (LTE) of shoots, by relative electrolyte leakage (REL) of shoots and by visual damage scoring (VD) of shoots and buds.According to the DTA, the FH of the cultivars varied between −38 °C (‘Conference’ in D2) and −41 °C (‘Pepi’ in R2). The shoots of the cultivar ‘Pepi’ and ‘Conference’ had the highest and the lowest FH, respectively, in all conditions and methods. All the cultivars had the lowest shoot FH after dehardening in either D1 (between −26 °C and −30 °C by REL and between −28 °C and −30 °C by VD) or D2 (between −38 °C and −40 °C by DTA), and the highest FH after rehardening (R1) preceded by D1 (between −30 °C and −34 °C by REL, and between −29 °C and −32 °C by VD). After the dehardening in D1, the buds did not reharden but continued to deharden (the average FH by VD − 24.5 °C). In the forcing conditions, bud growth was resumed most rapidly in ‘Conference’, indicating a shallower dormancy in this cultivar than in ‘Pepi’ or ‘Clara Frijs’. We conclude that the pear cultivars responded to temperature changes in mid-winter, but less than expected, and the responses were similar in all cultivars.

Recent Eurasian winter temperature change and its association with Arctic sea-ice loss

The surface air temperature in the northern mid-latitudes during winter showed a significant cooling trend from the late 1990s to the early 2010s, in spite of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This unexpected cooling, which was particularly strong across Eurasia, has been partly attributed to Arctic sea-ice loss. Here, the statistical relationship between Arctic sea-ice loss and surface air-temperature change during winter in Eurasia, which is often referred to as the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern, is re-evaluated by using a break-point trend analysis and maximum covariance analysis. A significant time-lagged covariability is observed between the Arctic sea-ice concentration over the Barents–Kara seas and the Eurasian surface air temperature during winter, with the former leading the latter by approximately two months. More importantly, the timing of an abrupt decline in the autumn Arctic sea ice that occurred in the late 1990s is coincident with the beginning of the Eurasian winter cooling. This concurrent trend change is statistically significant and robustly found in both the break-point analysis and maximum covariance analysis. These results suggest that both the interannual variability and decadal trend change seen for the surface air temperature during Eurasian winters are likely influenced by regional sea-ice changes over the Barents–Kara seas.

AMOC and summer sea ice as key drivers of the spread in mid-holocene winter temperature patterns over Europe in PMIP3 models

The mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) was a warmer period than today in summer in most of the Northern Hemisphere. In winter, over Europe, pollen-based reconstructions show a dipole of temperature anomalies as compared to present-day, with warmer conditions in the north and colder in the south. It has been proposed that this pattern of temperature anomaly could be explained by a persisting positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation during this period, which was, however, not reproduced in general by climate models. Indeed, PMIP3 models show a large spread in their response to the mid-Holocene insolation changes, the physical origins of which are not understood. To improve the understanding of the reconstructed temperature changes and of the PMIP3 model spread, we analyze the dynamical response of these model simulations in the North Atlantic for mid-Holocene conditions as compared to pre-industrial. We focus on the European pattern of temperature in winter and compare the simulations with a pollen-based reconstruction. We find that some of the model simulations yield a similar pattern to the reconstructed one, but with far lower amplitude, although it remains within the reconstruction uncertainty. We attribute the northern warm part of the latitudinal dipole of temperature anomaly in winter to a lower sea-ice cover in the Nordic Seas. The decrease of sea ice in winter indeed reduces the local sea-ice insulation effect, allowing the released ocean heat to reach continental northern Europe. This decrease in winter sea-ice cover is related to an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its associated ocean heat transport, as well as the effect of insolation changes on sea ice in summer, which persists until winter. We only find a slight cooling signal over southern Europe, compared to reconstructions, mainly related to the insolation-induced cooling in winter over Africa. We show that the models that failed to reproduce any AMOC increase under mid-Holocene conditions are also the ones that do not reproduce the temperature pattern over Europe. The change in sea level pressure is not sufficient to explain the spread among the models. The ocean-sea ice mechanisms that we proposed constitute an alternative explanation to the pattern of changes in winter temperatures over Europe in the mid-Holocene, which is in better agreement with available model simulations of this period. Finally, we evaluate if reconstructions of the AMOC for the mid-Holocene can provide interesting emerging constraints on key changes in European climate, and indirectly on AMOC response to on-going and future radiative changes. Although there is a significant link between the response of the mid-Holocene and projections, it remains limited. The proposed mechanism does not appear to be sufficient to explain the large discrepancies between models and reconstruction data for the summertime period.

New insights into environmental controls on the occurrence and abundance of Group I alkenones and their paleoclimate applications: Evidence from volcanic lakes of northeastern China

The distinctive long-chain alkenones (LCAs) produced by Group I Isochrysidales from freshwater and oligohaline lakes have great potential for quantitative paleotemperature reconstructions. The widespread application of sedimentary Group I LCAs, however, is hampered by an incomplete understanding of the environmental controls on the occurrence of Group I LCAs in freshwater lakes. The correspondence between Group I LCA concentrations and pH (6.2–8.5) in northern Alaskan freshwater lakes (Longo et al., 2016) suggests that Group I Isochrysidales may preferentially thrive in freshwater lakes with high pH. Here, we systematically study LCA distributions, haptophyte-specific 18S rDNA sequences, and concentrations of major ions and trace elements in 18 freshwater volcanic lakes in northeastern China with an extended pH range from 7.17 to 9.99. We find that 11 of the 18 lakes examined contain Group I LCAs and the corresponding DNA sequences of their producers. Our DNA results indicate that the dominant alkenone producer in all 11 lakes is closely related to the Group I Greenland OTU 5 genotype, with the exception of two anthropogenically impacted lakes where small numbers of Group II sequences are found. Statistical analyses indicate that the highest concentrations of Group I LCAs are found in oligotrophic freshwater lakes with pH ranging from ∼7.3 to 8.8. We find that elevated concentrations of certain trace elements may lead to the disappearance of Group I LCAs despite lake water falling within the optimal pH range. Together with previously published Group I LCA data from the temperature calibration in Northern Hemisphere freshwater lakes (Longo et al., 2018), we find, for the first time, that Group I R3b (R3b = C37:3b/(C38:3bEt + C37:3b)) values are most sensitive to winter temperature changes when mean winter temperature is higher than ∼−20°C. Our results suggest that the freshwater volcanic lakes in northeastern China are highly valuable targets for paleotemperature reconstructions using Group I LCAs.

Change characteristics of precipitation and temperature in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Oasis, Northwestern China

Precipitation and temperature in the Qilian Mountains and the Hexi oasis are changing with climate change. The characteristics and control factors of these changes are not well understood, affecting the ability to allocate water resources in this area judiciously. We analyzed the annual and seasonal variability in precipitation and temperature during 1960–2016 using monthly data from 25 national meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains. Results showed that precipitation increased by 6.2, 4.1, and 8.9 mm/decade for the whole regions (including oasis and mountains), oasis, and mountains, respectively. Variability in summer precipitation made the greatest contribution to the annual change in precipitation. Moreover, the increment in precipitation was amplified with elevation. Enhanced westerly circulation and increased water vapor were the factors responsible for the increased precipitation in the study area. Temperature in the whole regions, oasis, and mountains increased at the rate of 0.32, 0.32, and 0.33 °C/decade, respectively. Changes in temperature were greatest in winter, with 0.47, 0.36 and 0.50 °C/decade in the whole regions, oasis, and mountains, respectively; changes in winter temperature made the greatest contribution to the annual temperature changes. Seasonal differences in carbon dioxide concentration may have caused the seasonal differences in the rate of temperature increase. The annual increase in temperature was mainly due to Siberian High, and Arctic Oscillation, carbon emissions and decreased cloud cover in the study area. The study results will help evaluate climatic hazards and contribute to development of water resources management strategies such as supplementary irrigation.

Shrinkage of East Asia Winter Monsoon Associated With Increased ENSO Events Since the Mid‐Holocene

AbstractInstrumental records indicate a close relationship between the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on interannual to decadal time scales. However, few studies have examined possible links between them on centennial/millennial time scales. In Northeast China, modern observations show that the immigration of temperate forest trees such as Pinus (pine) and Quercus (oak) into cold temperate boreal forest is sensitive to changes in winter temperature. Here we present a continuous high‐resolution pollen record from Lake Moon in the central part of the Great Khingan Mountain Range, Northeast China. The record reveals increasing contents of Pinus and Quercus pollen after ~6.0 ka cal. BP, which may indicate a gradual weakening of the EAWM. It is broadly coupled with an increasing El Niño frequency since the middle Holocene, and we observe a statistically significant correlation between the percentages of Pinus and Quercus and a time series of El Niño events. On the centennial to millennial time scale, the results of wavelet analysis and band‐pass filtering show that the occurrence and development of El Niño have also promoted a weaker EAWM after ~6.0 ka cal. BP, which is inversely correlated with the variation of the ca. 500‐year cycle originated from changes in solar output. These results imply that the climate transition in the mid‐Holocene is caused by the change of variations in solar activity and amplified by ocean circulation El Niño‐Southern Oscillation to influence the East Asian Monsoon system, especially the EAWM, and finally change the vegetation in Great Khingan Mountain Range.

Results and prospects of the climatestudies and climate service in the Arctic

Climatic studies in AARI include monitoring changes in the Arctic climate system, ascertaining their causes and predictability. The beginning was laid in the 1920s by the works of V. Yu. Wiese, who investigated the causes of the warming of the Arctic in the 1920–1930s. Monitoring continues with the organization in 1932–1934 of a network of polar stations, and the first climatic assessments were created in the 1960s. At present, climate change monitoring in the Arctic is carried out on the basis of observations on the network of hydrometeorological stations, satellite observations of sea ice, ship-based expedition observations and measurements on autonomous buoy installations in the Arctic seas and the Arctic basin. The results are presented in regular reviews of climatic and ice conditions. Recent studies have evaluated the contribution of atmospheric heat transfers in the formation of temperature changes in winter and radiation inflows in summer.A scheme for the development and enhancement of warming in the Arctic has been proposed. The tasks of climate services in the Arctic are considered on the basis of the WMO initiative on the development of climate services in the form of the Arctic Regional Climate Center – network (ArcRCC-N).

The amenity value of climate change across different regions in the United States

ABSTRACTThis article estimates the effect of climatic variables on house prices near ski resorts in different regions in the United States. We find that among the climate variables we test, average winter temperature has the most significant and robust effect where an increase in this climate variable increases house prices near ski resorts at a decreasing rate. At the mean average winter temperature levels, an increase in average winter temperature reduces housing prices for all regions except the Northeast. The consumer surplus from projected average winter temperature changes is negative across all regions and the largest negative effects are in the Midwest and Mountain regions.

Deciphering the contrasting climatic trends between the central Himalaya and Karakoram with 36 years of WRF simulations

Glaciers over the central Himalaya have retreated at particularly rapid rates in recent decades, while glacier mass in the Karakoram appears stable. To address the meteorological factors associated with this contrast, 36 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalyses (CFSR) are dynamically downscaled from 1979 to 2015 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over High Mountain Asia at convection permitting grid spacing (6.7 km). In all seasons, CFSR shows an anti-cyclonic warming trend over the majority of High Mountain Asia, but distinctive differences are observed between the central Himalaya and Karakoram in winter and summer. In winter and summer, the central Himalaya has been under the influence of an anti-cyclonic trend, which in summer the downscaling shows has reduced cloud cover, leading to significant warming and reduced snowfall in recent years. Contrastingly, the Karakoram has been near the boundary between large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic trends and has not experienced significant snowfall or temperature changes in winter or summer, despite significant trends in summer of increasing cloud cover and decreasing shortwave radiation. This downscaling does not identify any trends over glaciers in closer neighboring regions to the Karakoram (e.g., Hindu Kush and the western Himalaya) where glaciers have retreated as over the central Himalaya, indicating that there are other factors driving glacier mass balance that this downscaling is unable to capture. While this study does not fully explain the Karakoram anomaly, the identified trends detail important meteorological contributions to the observed differences between central Himalaya and Karakoram glacier evolution in recent decades.

Changes in climatic tendencies in the Antarctic Peninsula region

Estimations of couplings of winter temperature in the Antarctic Peninsula region with tropical temperature anomalies indicate long term changes in the intensity of tropical influences. These changes are associated with the stability of the meridional wavetrain of stationary planetary waves, along which tropical disturbances in the Pacific Ocean sector propagate, affecting the climate of the Antarctic Peninsula. The period of the most significant tropical effects is the 1980s and the 1990s, and, at that time, the most rapid winter warming at Faraday/Vernadsky station was observed. One of the components of the winter temperature change on the peninsula is a 16year periodicity with amplitude of about 1oС that also contributes to regional climate change.

Uncertainty analysis of impacts of climate change on snow processes: Case study of interactions of GCM uncertainty and an impact model

The impact of climate change on snow water equivalent (SWE) and its uncertainty were investigated in snowy areas of subarctic and temperate climate zones in Japan by using a snow process model and climate projections derived from general circulation models (GCMs). In particular, we examined how the uncertainty due to GCMs propagated through the snow model, which contained nonlinear processes defined by thresholds, as an example of the uncertainty caused by interactions among multiple sources of uncertainty. An assessment based on the climate projections in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 indicated that heavy-snowfall areas in the temperate zone (especially in low-elevation areas) were markedly vulnerable to temperature change, showing a large SWE reduction even under slight changes in winter temperature. The uncertainty analysis demonstrated that the uncertainty associated with snow processes (1) can be accounted for mainly by the interactions between GCM uncertainty (in particular, the differences of projected temperature changes between GCMs) and the nonlinear responses of the snow model and (2) depends on the balance between the magnitude of projected temperature changes and present climates dominated largely by climate zones and elevation. Specifically, when the peaks of the distributions of daily mean temperature projected by GCMs cross the key thresholds set in the model, the GCM uncertainty, even if tiny, can be amplified by the nonlinear propagation through the snow process model. This amplification results in large uncertainty in projections of CC impact on snow processes.

Geographic variation in winter adaptations of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus)

Understanding adaptations of nonhibernating northern endotherms to cope with extreme cold is important because climate-induced changes in winter temperatures and snow cover are predicted to impact these species the most. We compared winter pelage characteristics and heat production of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) on the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania (USA), to a northern population, in the Yukon (Canada), to investigate how hares might respond to changing environmental conditions. We also investigated how hares in Pennsylvania altered movement rates and resting spot selection to cope with variable winter temperatures. Hares from Pennsylvania had shorter, less dense, and less white winter coats than their northern counterparts, suggesting lower coat insulation. Hares in the southern population had lower pelage temperatures, indicating that they produced less heat than those in the northern population. In addition, hares in Pennsylvania did not select for resting spots that offered thermal advantages, but selected locations offering visual obstruction from predators. Movement rates were associated with ambient temperature, with the smallest movements occurring at the lower and upper range of observed ambient temperatures. Our results indicate that snowshoe hares may be able to adapt to future climate conditions via changes in pelage characteristics, metabolism, and behavior.

Three centuries of winter temperature change on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau and its relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

Long-term, high-resolution proxy records containing cold season temperature signals are scarce on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau (TP), limiting our understanding of regional climate and the potential driving forces. In this study, we present a nearly three centuries long reconstruction of winter (December–February) mean temperature for the central Hengduan Mountains, southeastern TP. The reconstruction is derived from a composite tree-ring width chronology of Pinus yunnanensis Franch from two high elevation sites (>3000 m above sea level). Our reconstruction passes all standard calibration-verification schemes and explains nearly 73 % of the variance of the original instrumental data. However, we were constrained to calibrate our full period (1718–2013) reconstruction of December–February mean temperature on the calibration period from 1959 to 1992 only, due to a decrease in temperature sensitivity of tree-ring index exhibited after 1992. Spatial correlation analysis shows that our reconstruction represents large-scale temperature variations in southwest China and the eastern TP. Our reconstructed December–February mean temperature shows a close association with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the past three centuries, with warm (cold) periods coinciding with the positive (negative) phases of the AMO. This persistent relationship suggests that the AMO may have been a key driver of multidecadal winter temperature variations on the southeastern TP.

Fast acclimation of freezing resistance suggests no influence of winter minimum temperature on the range limit of European beech

Low temperature extremes drive species distribution at a global scale. Here, we assessed the acclimation potential of freezing resistance in European beech (Fagus sylvaticaL.) during winter. We specifically asked (i) how do beech populations growing in contrasting climates differ in their maximum freezing resistance, (ii) do differences result from genetic differentiation or phenotypic plasticity to preceding temperatures and (iii) is beech at risk of freezing damage in winter across its distribution range. We investigated the genetic and environmental components of freezing resistance in buds of adult beech trees from three different populations along a natural large temperature gradient in north-western Switzerland, including the site holding the cold temperature record in Switzerland. Freezing resistance of leaf primordia in buds varied significantly among populations, with LT50values (lethal temperature for 50% of samples) ranging from -25 to -40 °C, correlating with midwinter temperatures of the site of origin. Cambial meristems and the pith of shoots showed high freezing resistance in all three populations, with only a trend to lower freezing resistance at the warmer site. After hardening samples at -6 °C for 5 days, freezing resistance of leaf primordia increased in all provenances by up to 4.5 K. After additional hardening at -15 °C for 3 days, all leaf primordia were freezing resistant to -40 °C. We demonstrate that freezing resistance ofF. sylvaticahas a high ability to acclimate to temperature changes in winter, whereas the genetic differentiation of freezing resistance among populations seems negligible over this small geographic scale but large climatic gradient. In contrast to the assumption made in most of the species distribution models, we suggest that absolute minimum temperature in winter is unlikely to shape the cold range limit of beech. We conclude that the rapid acclimation of freezing resistance to winter temperatures allows beech to track changing climatic conditions, especially during unusually warm winters interrupted by very cold weather.

The seesaw effect of winter temperature change on the recruitment of cotton bollworms Helicoverpa armigera through mismatched phenology.

Knowing how climate change affects the population dynamics of insect pests is critical for the future of integrated pest management. Rising winter temperatures from global warming can drive increases in outbreaks of some agricultural pests. In contrast, here we propose an alternative hypothesis that both extremely cold and warm winters can mismatch the timing between the eclosion of overwintering pests and the flowering of key host plants. As host plants normally need higher effective cumulative temperatures for flowering than insects need for eclosion, changes in flowering time will be less dramatic than changes in eclosion time, leading to a mismatch of phenology on either side of the optimal winter temperature. We term this the “seesaw effect.” Using a long‐term dataset of the Old World cotton bollworm Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in northern China, we tested this seesaw hypothesis by running a generalized additive model for the effects of the third generation moth in the preceding year, the winter air temperature, the number of winter days below a critical temperature and cumulative precipitation during winter on the demography of the overwintering moth. Results confirmed the existence of the seesaw effect of winter temperature change on overwintering populations. Pest management should therefore consider the indirect effect of changing crop phenology (whether due to greenhouse cultivation or to climate change) on pest outbreaks. As arthropods from mid‐ and high latitudes are actually living in a cooler thermal environment than their physiological optimum in contrast to species from lower latitudes, the effects of rising winter temperatures on the population dynamics of arthropods in the different latitudinal zones should be considered separately. The seesaw effect makes it more difficult to predict the average long‐term population dynamics of insect pests at high latitudes due to the potential sharp changes in annual growth rates from fluctuating minimum winter temperatures.

Recent contrasting winter temperature changes over North America linked to enhanced positive Pacific‐North American pattern

AbstractRecently enhanced contrasts in winter (December‐January‐February) mean temperatures and extremes (cold southeast and warm northwest) across North America have triggered intensive discussion both within and outside of the scientific community, but the mechanisms responsible for these contrasts remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of observations and reanalysis data sets to show that the strengthened contrasts in winter mean temperatures and extremes across North America are closely related to an enhancement of the positive Pacific‐North American (PNA) pattern during the second half of the 20th century. Recent intensification of positive PNA events is associated with amplified planetary waves over North America, driving cold‐air outbreaks into the southeast and warm tropical/subtropical air into the northwest. This not only results in a strengthened winter mean temperature contrast but increases the occurrence of the opposite‐signed extremes in these two regions.

Coupled spatiotemporal variability of temperature and spring phenology in the Eastern United States

While warmer spring temperatures frequently led to earlier vegetation phenology during the past decade in the eastern United States, detailed geographic patterns of this coupled relationship have not been investigated previously. Additionally, a record early greenup onset that occurred in the U.S. Northeast in 2010 and over a majority of the eastern United States in 2012 offered unique opportunities to assess spatiotemporal variations of phenology–climate interactions in the context of climate change. In this study, we examined interannual variations of land surface phenology (LSP) of the forested eastern U.S., coupled with both spring and winter temperature changes from 2000 to 2012, highlighting the different geographic patterns of phenological responses in 2010 and 2012. We employed S-mode canonical correlation analysis and extended principal component analysis to detect the coupled spatiotemporal variations of LSP and cumulative temperature variables. For the U.S. Northeast, these methods allowed us to identify potentially offsetting interactions in which reduced chilling during a warm 2011–2012 winter delayed dormancy break and lessened the advance in greenup onset during the very warm spring in 2012. In the Upper Midwest, however, winter chilling seemed sufficient and greenup closely tracked springtime warming. These geographic details of phenology–climate interactions unveiled how vegetation phenology is closely coupled with both spring and winter temperatures in time and space. This study further implied that both different temperature regimes and geographically varied climatic dependencies of vegetation could be responsible for spatially diverse phenological responses to climate change.

Interdecadal Variations of Winter Temperatures in East China During the Past 100 Years and Related Atmospheric Circulation

AbstractThe winter temperature changes in East China during the past 100 years are investigated by using the Twentieth Century Version 2 (20th-v2) Reanalysis. Four typical warm (P1, 1911-30; P4, 1991-2010) and cold (P2, 1938-57; P3, 1961-80) periods are identified for the East China winter temperature index. Comparison of 160-station observational data, NCAR sea level pressure (SLP) data, and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis shows that the 20th-v2 Reanalysis can successfully depict the major features of the warming from P3 to P4, which is part of the global warming phenomenon. The cooling from P1 to P2 is a regional phenomenon under global warming. However, both changes are consistent with the phase change of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), while the second change is also accompanied by the phase change of Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) from negative to positive. Original sources of the interdecadal shifts of the AO and winter temperature in East China require further research.

Late Pliocene temperatures and their spatial variation at the southeastern border of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

It is widely accepted that the late Pliocene spans a time with globally warmer conditions compared to today. Regional specifics in temperature patterns from this period, however, remain poorly known. In this study, we reconstruct quantitatively late Pliocene climates for eight sites at the southeastern border of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (SBTP), based on palaeobotanical data compiled from published sources using the Coexistence Approach (CoA), and analyze anomalies with respect to modern climates. The reconstructed temperatures indicate that in the late Pliocene, the northwestern part of the study area was cooler than its southern part. This spatial differentiation in temperature was largely due to differences in altitude: the northwest of the SBTP probably had higher altitudes than the south at that time. Mean annual temperatures (MATs) were around 1°C higher than today, suggesting a cooling trend since the late Pliocene. Our data show that summer temperatures have declined significantly since the late Pliocene while winter temperatures have remained similar to those of the present, different from observations in other territories. The unexpected summer and winter temperature changes can be explained by the regional orogenic uplift plus the global cooling. The eastward extrusion of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau might have blocked the southward cold high pressure of the winter monsoon and forced it to circumvent the eastern flank of the plateau, weakening its impact on the SBTP. The post-Pliocene mountain uplift increased the overall altitude of the region, which caused the temperature decline for both summer and winter. The reconstructed summer precipitation was lower while the winter precipitation was higher than today, suggesting a weaker monsoon climate during the late Pliocene.

Paleoclimate modeling in China: A review

This paper provides a review of paleoclimate modeling activities in China. Rather than attempt to cover all topics, we have chosen a few climatic intervals and events judged to be particularly informative to the international community. In historical climate simulations, changes in solar radiation and volcanic activity explain most parts of reconstructions over the last millennium prior to the industrial era, while atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations play the most important role in the 20th century warming over China. There is a considerable model-data mismatch in the annual and boreal winter temperature change over China during the mid-Holocene [6000 years before present (ka BP)], while coupled models with an interactive ocean generally perform better than atmospheric models. For the Last Glacial Maximum (21 ka BP), climate models successfully reproduce the surface cooling trend over China but fail to reproduce its magnitude, with a better performance for coupled models. At that time, reconstructed vegetation and western Pacific sea surface temperatures could have significantly affected the East Asian climate, and environmental conditions on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau were most likely very different to the present day. During the late Marine Isotope Stage 3 (30–40 ka BP), orbital forcing and Northern Hemisphere glaciation, as well as vegetation change in China, were likely responsible for East Asian climate change. On the tectonic scale, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau uplift, the Tethys Sea retreat, and the South China Sea expansion played important roles in the formation of the East Asian monsoon-dominant environment pattern during the late Cenozoic.