Tree Cover Change Research Articles

Mapping tree cover expansion in Montana, U.S.A. rangelands using high‐resolution historical aerial imagery

AbstractWorldwide, trees are colonizing rangelands with high conservation value. The introduction of trees into grasslands and shrublands causes large‐scale changes in ecosystem structure and function, which have cascading impacts on ecosystem services, biodiversity, and agricultural economies. Satellites are increasingly being used to track tree cover at continental to global scales, but these methods can only provide reliable estimates of change over recent decades. Given the slow pace of tree cover expansion, remote sensing techniques that can extend this historical record provide critical insights into the magnitude of environmental change. Here, we estimate conifer expansion in rangelands of the northern Great Plains, United States, North America, using historical aerial imagery from the mid‐20th century and modern aerial imagery. We analyzed 19.3 million hectares of rangelands in Montana, USA, using a convolutional neural network (U‐Net architecture) and cloud computing to detect tree features and tree cover change. Our bias‐corrected results estimate 3.0 ± 0.2 million hectares of conifer tree cover expansion in Montana rangelands, which accounts for 15.4% of the total study area. Overall accuracy was >91%, but the producer's accuracy was lower than the user's accuracy (0.60 vs. 0.88) for areas of tree cover expansion. Nonetheless, the omission errors were not spatially clustered, suggesting that the method is reliable for identifying the regions of Montana where substantial tree expansion has occurred. Using the model results in conjunction with historical and modern imagery allows for effective communication of the scale of tree expansion while overcoming the recency effect caused by shifting environmental baselines.

More Trees and More Biomass Energy Options for Increased Energy Security within Households in Navakholo Sub-County, Kenya

To date, most rural households in the Navakholo constituency rely on wood fuel for domestic energy requirements, especially cooking. The increasing population is putting a lot of pressure on tree cover, its role in climate change mitigation and biodiversity conservation notwithstanding. Switching to energy alternatives within the biomass domain presents a policy option to increase access to household energy. This paper reports on the emerging trends in this regard. Spatial survey was used to track land use and tree cover changes from 1990-2022. A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from a sample size of 395 respondents selected through systematic random sampling. A majority (78.9%) of the respondents indicated having adequate (covering over 10% of the land) tree cover, with woodlots accounting for 39.8% and trees planted along fences at 37.3%. Nevertheless, 43.4% of the households indicated that the fuelwood supply was not able to meet household energy demand. Chi-square analysis indicated that there was a significant relationship between household biomass usage, tree density and adequacy of fuel wood in the area (p = .004 and p = .004), indicating that firewood remains the choice energy source despite the apparent diminishing tree cover. This paper calls for the need to increase tree cover and access to alternative biomass options.

Northern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests

Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. Here, we used remotely-sensed tree cover data to quantify temporal changes across the North American boreal biome from 2000 to 2019. We reveal a strong north-south asymmetry in tree cover change, coupled with a range shrinkage of tree cover distributions. We found no evidence for tree cover expansion in the northern biome, while tree cover increased markedly in the core of the biome range. By contrast, tree cover declined along the southern biome boundary, where losses were related largely to wildfires and timber logging. We show that these contrasting trends are structural indicators for a possible onset of a biome contraction which may lead to long-term carbon declines.

Reversible Impacts of a Cold Spell on Forest Cover, Tree Growth and Carbohydrates in Mediterranean Pine and Oak Forests

Climate extremes such as cold spells are becoming more frequent as climate variability increases. However, few studies have evaluated the impacts of winter cold spells on forest cover, tree growth and leaf and sapwood non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations. We analyzed changes in tree cover using remote sensing data and compared the radial growth of coexisting and defoliated Pinus halepensis trees and non-defoliated P. halepensis and Pinus pinaster trees. We also compared NSC concentrations in leaves and sapwood of defoliated and non-defoliated P. halepensis and Quercus ilex trees. In January 2021, a rapid drop in temperatures led to minimum values (−21.3 °C) in eastern Spain and triggered canopy defoliation in several planted (P. halepensis) and native (Q. ilex) tree species. The cold spell led to a decrease in forest cover in the most defoliated stands and reduced radial growth of defoliated P. halepensis and sapwood NSC concentrations in P. halepensis and Q. ilex, particularly starch. Prior to the cold spell, defoliated P. halepensis trees significantly (p < 0.05) grew more (2.73 ± 1.70 mm) in response to wetter winter conditions than non-defoliated P. halepensis (2.29 ± 1.08 mm) and P. pinaster (1.39 mm) trees. Those P. halepensis individuals which grew faster at a young age were less resilient to the winter cold spell in later years. The study stands showed a high recovery capacity after the cold spell, but the Mediterranean drought-avoiding P. halepensis was the most affected species.

Disrupted montane forest recovery hinders biodiversity conservation in the tropical Andes

AbstractAimAndean montane forests are biodiversity hotspots and large carbon stores and they provide numerous ecosystem services. Following land abandonment after centuries of forest clearing for agriculture in the Andes, there is an opportunity for forest recovery. Field‐based studies show that forests do not always recover. However, large‐scale and long‐term knowledge of recovery dynamics of Andean forests remains scarce. This paper analyses tropical montane forest recovery trajectories over a 15‐year time frame at the landscape and tropical Andean scale to inform restoration planning.MethodsWe first detect “potential recovery” as areas that have experienced a forest transition between 2000 and 2005. Then, we use Landsat time series analysis of the normalized difference water index (NDWI) to classify four “realized recovery” trajectories (“ongoing”, “arrested”, “disrupted” and “no recovery”) based on a sequential pattern of 5‐yearly Z‐score anomalies for 2005–2020. We compare these results against an analysis of change in tree cover to validate against other datasets.ResultsAcross the tropical Andes, we detected a potential recovery area of 274 km2 over the period. Despite increases in tree cover, most areas of the Andes remained in early successional states (10–25% tree cover), and NDWI levelled out after 5–10 years. Of all potential forest recovery areas, 22% showed “ongoing recovery”, 61% showed either “disrupted” or “arrested recovery”, and 17% showed “no recovery”. Our method captured forest recovery dynamics in a Peruvian arrested succession context and in landscape‐scale tree‐planting efforts in Ecuador.Main conclusionsForest recovery across the Andes is mostly disrupted, arrested or unsuccessful, with consequences for biodiversity recovery and provision of ecosystem services. Low‐recovery areas identified in this study might be good candidates for active restoration interventions in this UN Decade on Restoration. Future studies could determine restoration strategies and priorities and suggest management strategies at a local planning scale across key regions in the biodiversity hotspot.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of tree cover change in semi-arid Ghana: evidence from Sentinel-2 time series data

ABSTRACT Trees provide vital ecosystem services, yet anthropogenic activities have continued to reduce tree cover (TC) globally, leading to disparities in the distribution of ecosystem services at various scales. Similarly, empirical analysis of indicators that measure variations in TC at various temporal and spatial scales is limited in the semi-arid regions where global environmental challenges such as climate change are already affecting TC distribution. This paper quantified recent (2017 - 2019) TC changes in the semi-arid region of Ghana using Sentinel-2 times series data and the application of landscape metrics. The results showed that TC declined by 30% within two years. Urbanizing areas showed more rapid TC depletion rates, while some rural areas experienced a slight increase in TC. The findings suggest the need for local environmental governance by consolidating actions towards conserving semi-arid TC. Sustainable charcoal and fuelwood production are imperative for a long-term sustainable supply of ecosystem services.

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km2), 2015 (1556 km2), and 2008 (1549 km2). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California’s ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region’s forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion’s sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

Mapping Tropical Forest Cover and Deforestation with Planet NICFI Satellite Images and Deep Learning in Mato Grosso State (Brazil) from 2015 to 2021

Monitoring changes in tree cover for assessment of deforestation is a premise for policies to reduce carbon emission in the tropics. Here, a U-net deep learning model was used to map monthly tropical tree cover in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso between 2015 and 2021 using 5 m spatial resolution Planet NICFI satellite images. The accuracy of the tree cover model was extremely high, with an F1-score >0.98, further confirmed by an independent LiDAR validation showing that 95% of tree cover pixels had a height >5 m while 98% of non-tree cover pixels had a height <5 m. The biannual map of deforestation was then built from the monthly tree cover map. The deforestation map showed relatively consistent agreement with the official deforestation map from Brazil (67.2%) but deviated significantly from Global Forest Change (GFC)’s year of forest loss, showing that our product is closest to the product made by visual interpretation. Finally, we estimated that 14.8% of Mato Grosso’s total area had undergone clear-cut logging between 2015 and 2021, and that deforestation was increasing, with December 2021, the last date, being the highest. High-resolution imagery from Planet NICFI in conjunction with deep learning techniques can significantly improve the mapping of deforestation extent in tropical regions.

Quantitative tree cover reconstruction during the past 2000 years in the central–northern parts of the Daxing'an Mountains, northeast China

Reconstructing the history of tree cover and exploring the relationship between forest growth and environmental factors are of great significance for predicting future vegetation changes and guiding ecosystem restoration and protection. On the basis of pollen data of two lake cores and three peat profiles in the central–northern parts of the Daxing'an Mountains and using multiple methods, we quantitatively reconstructed the tree cover of the past 2000 years. We found that the reconstruction results of the different methods are quite similar. Among all these methods, random forest had the highest prediction accuracy for modern pollen samples. Therefore, the random forest reconstruction results can better reflect changes in regional tree cover, which was approximately 38%–42% during 2000–200 Cal yr BP. It then obviously increased from a low value of approximately 40% to a modern level of approximately 45%. The precipitation and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were the main drivers for the tree cover before and after 200 Cal yr BP, respectively. This indicates that environments with elevated CO2 level in the near future will benefit the growth of vegetation in the central–northern parts of the Daxing'an Mountains.

Herbaceous production lost to tree encroachment in United States rangelands

Abstract Rangelands of the United States provide ecosystem services that benefit society and rural economies. Native tree encroachment is often overlooked as a primary threat to rangelands due to the slow pace of tree cover expansion and the positive public perception of trees. Still, tree encroachment fragments these landscapes and reduces herbaceous production, thereby threatening habitat quality for grassland wildlife and the economic sustainability of animal agriculture. Recent innovations in satellite remote sensing permit the tracking of tree encroachment and the corresponding impact on herbaceous production. We analysed tree cover change and herbaceous production across the western United States from 1990 to 2019. We show that tree encroachment is widespread in US rangelands; absolute tree cover has increased by 50% (77,323 km2) over 30 years, with more than 25% (684,852 km2) of US rangeland area experiencing tree cover expansion. Since 1990, 302 ± 30 Tg of herbaceous biomass have been lost. Accounting for variability in livestock biomass utilization and forage value reveals that this lost production is valued at between $4.1–$5.6 billion US dollars. Synthesis and applications. The magnitude of impact of tree encroachment on rangeland loss is similar to conversion to cropland, another well‐known and primary mechanism of rangeland loss in the US Prioritizing conservation efforts to prevent tree encroachment can bolster ecosystem and economic sustainability, particularly among privately‐owned lands threatened by land‐use conversion.

Combined impacts of future climate-driven vegetation changes and socioeconomic pressures on protected areas in Africa.

Africa's protected areas (PAs) are the last stronghold of the continent's unique biodiversity, but they appear increasingly threatened by climate change, substantial human population growth, and land-use change. Conservation planning is challenged by uncertainty about how strongly and where these drivers will interact over the next few decades. We investigated the combined future impacts of climate-driven vegetation changes inside African PAs and human population densities and land use in their surroundings for 2 scenarios until the end of the 21st century. We used the following 2 combinations of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs): the "middle-of-the-road" scenario SSP2-RCP4.5 and the resource-intensive "fossil-fueled development" scenario SSP5-RCP8.5. Climate change impacts on tree cover and biome type (i.e., desert, grassland, savanna, and forest) were simulated with the adaptive dynamic global vegetation model (aDGVM). Under both scenarios, most PAs were adversely affected by at least 1 of the drivers, but the co-occurrence of drivers was largely region and scenario specific. The aDGVM projections suggest considerable climate-driven tree cover increases in PAs in today's grasslands and savannas. For PAs in West Africa, the analyses revealed climate-driven vegetation changes combined with hotspots of high future population and land-use pressure. Except for many PAs in North Africa, future decreases in population and land-use pressures were rare. At the continental scale, SSP5-RCP8.5 led to higher climate-driven changes in tree cover and higher land-use pressure, whereas SSP2-RCP4.5 was characterized by higher future population pressure. Both SSP-RCP scenarios implied increasing challenges for conserving Africa's biodiversity in PAs. Our findings underline the importance of developing and implementing region-specific conservation responses. Strong mitigation of future climate change and equitable development scenarios would reduce ecosystem impacts and sustain the effectiveness of conservation in Africa.

Linking tree cover change to historical management practices in urban parks

Urban tree canopy (UTC) in parks is shaped by complex interactions between social and ecological processes over decades. To understand UTC change in parks, it is critical to identify and characterize the unique set of social processes that drive long-term change. We sought to uncover the feedbacks between social processes and long-term UTC changes in parks of a post-industrial city that experienced substantial population loss and park disinvestment. Our mixed-methods approach involved quantifying spatiotemporal UTC changes and connecting those changes to historical management practices for three parks in Philadelphia, PA (US). We delineated UTC using aerial imagery between 1959 and 2018, and synthesized information from archival records and semi-structured interviews about historical management practices. We found substantial UTC gains between 1959 and 1980, due to both: (a) budget cuts, mowing cessation, and associated unintended forest emergence; and (b) purposeful tree planting and reforestation activities. While some UTC gains were purposeful, others were unintentional and reflect successional processes on unmaintained lands. Contrary to literature suggesting that financial investment would lead to UTC gain, we saw declining UTC following an influx of new funding post-2000 due to construction and ecological restoration. We found differing pathways leading to convergent outcomes of UTC gains. Across the three parks, differing historical processes and management goals for park landscapes had important ramifications for UTC. Our work suggests that landscape management could benefit from an improved understanding of how historical processes impact land cover over the long-term.

Monitoring dryland trees with remote sensing. Part B: Combining tree cover and plant architecture data to assess degradation and recovery of Argania spinosa woodlands of South Morocco

The argan woodlands of South Morocco represent an open-canopy dryland forest with traditional silvopastoral usage that includes browsing by goats, sheep and camels, oil production as well as agricultural use. In the past, these forests have undergone extensive clearing, but are now protected by the state. However, the remaining argan woodlands are still under pressure from intensive grazing and illegal firewood collection. Although the argan-forest area seems to be overall decreasing due to large forest clearings for intensive agriculture, little quantitative data is available on the dynamics and overall state of the remaining argan forest. To determine how the argan woodlands in the High Atlas and the Anti-Atlas had changed in tree-crown cover from 1972 to 2018 we used historical black and white HEXAGON satellite images as well as recent WorldView satellite images (see Part A of our study). Because tree shadows can oftentimes not be separated from the tree crown on panchromatic satellite images, individual trees were mapped in three size categories to determine if trees were unchanged, had decreased/increased in crown size or had disappeared or newly grown. The current state of the argan trees was evaluated by mapping tree architectures in the field. Tree-cover changes varied highly between the test sites. Trees that remained unchanged between 1972 and 2018 were in the majority, while tree mortality and tree establishment were nearly even. Small unchanged trees made up 48.4% of all remaining trees, of these 51% showed degraded tree architectures. 40% of small (re-) grown trees were so overbrowsed that they only appeared as bushes, while medium (3–7 m crown diameter) and large trees (>7 m) showed less degraded trees regardless if they had changed or not. Approaches like grazing exclusion or cereal cultivation lead to a positive influence on tree architecture and less tree-cover decrease. Although the woodland was found to be mostly unchanged 1972–2018, the analysis of tree architecture reveals that a lot of (mostly small) trees remained stable but in a degraded state. This stability might be the result of the small trees’ high degradation status and shows the heavy pressure on the argan forest.

Contribution of ‘human induced fires’ to forest and savanna land conversion dynamics in the Luki Biosphere Reserve landscape, western Democratic Republic of Congo

ABSTRACT Human-induced fire is one of the most important determinants of forest cover and change in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Yet its impact on forest cover and forest cover change remains unclear, as fires in Africa generally do not spread over very large area. This is particularly the case in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a region of the world that is still poorly investigated. Here, we propose to study the effect of human-induced fire on land use and land cover change in a protected area of the DRC, i.e. the Luki Biosphere Reserve (LBR). We investigate tree cover changes in and around the reserve between 2002 and 2019 using Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS and MODIS MCD12Q1 images and quantify human induced fires using MODIS MCD64A1 images. The study combines land use and land cover (LULC) change detection analysis of four images, two acquired in 2002 and two acquired in 2019, with multi-temporal assessment of annual burnt area acquired between 2002 and 2019 from MODIS MCD64A1 to assess the role of fire in LULC changes and the sensitivity of different LULC types to fire. The results show a dynamic conversion of primary forest to secondary forest over about 16% of the area, the evolution of savanna to secondary forest over 9.6% (Landsat image) and the replacement of secondary forest by savanna over 8.1% (MODIS image) of the total area of Luki Reserve. Of the total area undergoing land use change, 34.1% (Landsat image) and 35.7% (MODIS image) were caused by fire, which however did not cause a significant LULC change. For the LULC types that experienced fire events, the least stable type was primary forest, which had the lowest stability rate (34.2% and 23% for Landsat and MODIS image analysis, respectively) compared to others. This result illustrates the importance of fire as a driver of primary forest loss and degradation in the region. Despite the high exposure of savannas to fire events, they were not significantly destabilized by fire (stability rates of 86.3 and 97% for Landsat and MODIS analysis, respectively). Future analyses should focus on discriminating between different fire types to better understand the complex relationship between fire and ecosystem conditions.

Fire Regions as Environmental Niches: A New Paradigm to Define Potential Fire Regimes in Africa and Australia

AbstractDespite the widespread use of the “fire regime” concept for describing spatial and temporal patterns and ecosystem impacts of fire, this concept lacks an unambiguous, quantitative definition. By adopting from the ecological literature the concept of climate niche, that is, the environmental conditions that allow a specie to exist, we propose a new framework where variables that promote fuel accumulation and desiccation were used to define the environmental space at the continental level, later divided into regions (“fire regions”) with distinct fire potential. Our proposed approach emphasizes climate controls on fire patterns, distinct from the controls that humans exert on observed fire activity. By applying this framework, we identified nine fire regions in Africa and eight in Australia, distinguishing differences in fire patterns between continents as a result of changes in environmental gradient. Not only did we find that fire size and intensity varied significantly between continents, but biomes at a continental level were also found to be heterogeneous in terms of fire frequency, size, and intensity. For example, within African tropical savannas, the total annual rainfall and tree cover change drastically North and South of the equator, resulting in fire regions with significantly different fire characteristics. Meanwhile, in Australia, a strong gradient of annual temperature and precipitation seasonality was observed within tropical savannas and xeric shrublands, which was recognized by dividing those biomes into five regions with statistically different fire activity. Additionally, human presence led to some heterogeneity of fire patterns within delineated fire regions that also varied across biomes.

The impacts of wildfires of different burn severities on vegetation structure across the western United States rangelands

Large wildfires have increased in western US rangelands over the last three decades. There is limited information on the impacts of wildfires with different severities on the vegetation in these rangelands. This study assessed the impacts of large wildfires on rangeland fractional cover including annual forbs and grasses (AFG), perennial forbs and grasses (PFG), shrubs (SHR) and trees (TREE) across the western US, and explored relationships between changes in fractional cover and prefire soil moisture conditions. The Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was used to group wildfires into nine clusters based on the prefire rangeland fractional cover extracted from the Rangeland Analysis Platform. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with various lag scales from the Gridded Surface Meteorological (GRIDMET) dataset was used to represent antecedent soil moisture conditions. The results showed generally that fractional cover decreased most for AFG and PFG during the fire year, one year postfire for SHR, and two years postfire for TREE. High severity wildfires led to the greatest decrease in cover for all plant functional types, while low severity wildfires caused the least decrease in the functional type cover in most cases, though some variations existed. Furthermore, the impacts of wildfires on vegetation cover were greater in woody (SHR and TREE) types than in herbaceous (AFG and PFG) types. Significant negative correlation existed between percent changes in AFG and PFG cover and SPEI indicating higher prefire soil moisture conditions likely increased fine fuel loads and led to a larger decrease in AFG and PFG cover following wildfires. Significant positive correlation existed between percent changes in SHR and TREE cover and SPEI indicating drier prefire conditions resulted in larger decreases in SHR and TREE cover following wildfires. These findings help better understand the impacts of wildfires on rangelands and provide insights for rangeland management.

Monitoring Dryland Trees With Remote Sensing. Part A: Beyond CORONA—Historical HEXAGON Satellite Imagery as a New Data Source for Mapping Open-Canopy Woodlands on the Tree Level

Monitoring woody cover by remote sensing is considered a key methodology towards sustainable management of trees in dryland forests. However, while modern very high resolution satellite (VHRS) sensors allow woodland mapping at the individual tree level, the historical perspective is often hindered by lack of appropriate image data. In this first study employing the newly accessible historical HEXAGON KH-9 stereo-panoramic camera images for environmental research, we propose their use for mapping trees in open-canopy conditions. The 2–4 feet resolution panchromatic HEXAGON satellite photographs were taken 1971–1986 within the American reconnaissance programs that are better known to the scientific community for their lower-resolution CORONA images. Our aim is to evaluate the potential of combining historical CORONA and HEXAGON with recent WorldView VHRS imagery for retrospective woodland change mapping on the tree level. We mapped all trees on 30 1-ha test sites in open-canopy argan woodlands in Morocco in the field and from the VHRS imagery for estimating changes of tree density and size between 1967/1972 and 2018. Prior to image interpretation, we used simulations based on unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery for exemplarily examining the role of illumination, viewing geometry and image resolution on the appearance of trees and their shadows in the historical panchromatic images. We show that understanding these parameters is imperative for correct detection and size-estimation of tree crowns. Our results confirm that tree maps derived solely from VHRS image analysis generally underestimate the number of small trees and trees in clumped-canopy groups. Nevertheless, HEXAGON images compare remarkably well with WorldView images and have much higher tree-mapping potential than CORONA. By classifying the trees in three sizes, we were able to measure tree-cover changes on an ordinal scale. Although we found no clear trend of forest degradation or recovery, our argan forest sites show varying patterns of change, which are further analysed in Part B of our study. We conclude that the HEXAGON stereo-panoramic camera images, of which 670,000 worldwide will soon be available, open exciting opportunities for retrospective monitoring of trees in open-canopy conditions and other woody vegetation patterns back into the 1980s and 1970s.

Assessing Urban Forest Threats across the Conterminous United States

Abstract Numerous threats to urban forests are assessed for the conterminous United States, including projected changes in urban tree cover, air temperatures, precipitation, aridity, sea level rise, wildfires, and flooding, as well as threats from hurricanes, tornadoes, ice storms, and insects and diseases. All potential threats were integrated into a cumulative threat index to illustrate which areas of the United States will likely face the greatest overall threat to their urban forests. Urban forests with the greatest cumulative threat per unit area are in the eastern United States, particularly in some coastal counties. Urban forests that have the greatest cumulative threat proportional to the percent of the county that is urbanized are in the highly urbanized areas along the DC–Boston corridor and in other metro areas (e.g., Atlanta, Georgia; Indianapolis, Indiana; Columbus, Ohio; Houston, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina). By understanding local urban forest threats, management plans and policies can be enacted to help mitigate the impacts of and adapt to future threats to sustain healthy urban forests and associated benefits. Study Implications: By understanding the magnitude and variation in potential urban forest threats, forest managers can be better prepared to potentially minimize and adapt to future urban forest damage. Threat type and intensities of threats vary by location. Understanding the distribution and intensity of urban forest threats can be used to help direct policies and forest management plans to sustain long-term urban forest health. A tool to assess urban forest threats by county is available in the supplemental materials.

Large contribution of woody plant expansion to recent vegetative greening of the Northern Great Plains

AbstractAimExtensive portions of high‐latitude grasslands worldwide have recently experienced increased vegetative productivity (i.e., greening) and have undergone a rapid transition towards woody plant dominance via the process of woody plant expansion (WPE). This raises the underlying question: To what degree are WPE and greening spatiotemporally linked? Given that these vegetative changes are predicted to continue, we seek to understand how recent changes in vegetation extent and productivity have interacted under recent climate change and anthropogenic disturbance to provide insights surrounding the future trajectory of temperate grasslands broadly.LocationNorthern Great Plains (NGP), North America.TaxonWoody plants.MethodsGreening was measured as the significant increase in three metrics between 2000 and 2019: leaf area index (LAI), annual maximum normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and annual mean NDVI. WPE was measured as the significant proportional increase in percent tree cover change between 2000 and 2019 in grasslands. We then examined these variables across a host of 26 potential driving variables.ResultsWe show that average proportional greening increased by 0.2–1.3% year−1 (depending on metric), and proportional WPE increased by 6.9% year−1 since 2000 across the NGP. Both changes are largely driven by the absence of wildfire and changing climate. Furthermore, WPE was spatially coherent and positively associated with a large component of recent greening, as revealed by their coupling across 34.1%–40.6% of grassland area and as evidenced by the 9.7%–19.7% of the variability in greening explained by WPE.Main conclusionsWPE and greening are spatiotemporally coupled across large portions of the NGP. Under continued climate change and wildfire suppression, WPE and greening are likely to continue across large swathes of grasslands globally. Furthermore, our results show that using a single greening metric may be insufficient to capture the large‐scale vegetative changes such as the expansion of woody vegetation.

Statistical Attribution of the Influence of Urban and Tree Cover Change on Streamflow: A Comparison of Large Sample Statistical Approaches

AbstractThe strengths and weaknesses of different statistical methodologies for attributing changes in streamflow to land cover are still poorly understood. We examine the relationships between high (Q99), mean (Qmean), and low (Q01) streamflow and urbanization or tree cover change in 729 catchments in the United States between 1992 and 2018. We apply two statistical modeling approaches and compare their performance. Panel regression models estimate the average effect of land cover changes on streamflow across all sites, and show that on average, a 1%‐point increase in catchment urban area results in a small (0.6%–0.7%), but highly significant increase in mean and high flows. Meanwhile, a 1%‐point increase in tree cover does not correspond to strongly significant changes in flow. We also fit a generalized linear model to each individual site, which results in highly varied model coefficients. The medians of the single‐site coefficients show no significant relationships between either urbanization or tree cover change and any streamflow quantile (although at individual sites, the coefficients may be statistically significant and positive or negative). On the other hand, the GLM coefficients may provide greater nuance in catchments with specific attributes. This variation is not well represented through the panel model estimates of average effect, unless moderators are carefully considered. We highlight the value of statistical approaches for large‐sample attribution of hydrological change, while cautioning that considerable variability exists.