Changes In Transmission Intensity Research Articles

Genetic surveillance reveals low, sustained malaria transmission with clonal replacement in Sao Tome and Principe.

Despite efforts to eliminate malaria in Sao Tome and Principe (STP), cases have recently increased. Understanding residual transmission structure is crucial for developing effective elimination strategies. This study collected surveillance data and generated amplicon sequencing data from 980 samples between 2010 and 2016 to examine the genetic structure of the parasite population. The mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) was 1.3, with 11% polyclonal infections, indicating low transmission intensity. Temporal trends of these genetic metrics did not align with incidence rates, suggesting that changes in genetic metrics may not straightforwardly reflect changes in transmission intensity, particularly in low transmission settings where genetic drift and importation have a substantial impact. While 88% of samples were genetically linked, continuous turnover in genetic clusters and changes in drug-resistance haplotypes were observed. Principal component analysis revealed some STP samples were genetically similar to those from Central and West Africa, indicating possible importation. These findings highlight the need to prioritize several interventions such as targeted interventions against transmission hotspots, reactive case detection, and strategies to reduce the introduction of new parasites into this island nation as it approaches elimination. This study also serves as a case study for implementing genetic surveillance in a low transmission setting.

Plasmodium vivax genomic surveillance in the Peruvian Amazon with Pv AmpliSeq assay.

Plasmodium vivax is the most predominant malaria species in Latin America, constituting 71.5% of malaria cases in 2021. With several countries aiming for malaria elimination, it is crucial to prioritize effectiveness of national control programs by optimizing the utilization of available resources and strategically implementing necessary changes. To support this, there is a need for innovative approaches such as genomic surveillance tools that can investigate changes in transmission intensity, imported cases and sources of reintroduction, and can detect molecular markers associated with drug resistance. Here, we apply a modified highly-multiplexed deep sequencing assay: Pv AmpliSeq v2 Peru. The tool targets a newly developed 41-SNP Peru barcode for parasite population analysis within Peru, the 33-SNP vivaxGEN-geo panel for country-level classification, and 11 putative drug resistance genes. It was applied to 230 samples from the Peruvian Amazon (2007-2020), generating baseline surveillance data. We observed a heterogenous P. vivax population with high diversity and gene flow in peri-urban areas of Maynas province (Loreto region) with a temporal drift using all SNPs detected by the assay (nSNP = 2909). In comparison, in an indigenous isolated area, the parasite population was genetically differentiated (FST = 0.07-0.09) with moderate diversity and high relatedness between isolates in the community. In a remote border community, a clonal P. vivax cluster was identified, with distinct haplotypes in drug resistant genes and ama1, more similar to Brazilian isolates, likely representing an introduction of P. vivax from Brazil at that time. To test its applicability for Latin America, we evaluated the SNP Peru barcode in P. vivax genomes from the region and demonstrated the capacity to capture local population clustering at within-country level. Together this data shows that P. vivax transmission is heterogeneous in different settings within the Peruvian Amazon. Genetic analysis is a key component for regional malaria control, offering valuable insights that should be incorporated into routine surveillance.

Coiaf: Directly estimating complexity of infection with allele frequencies.

In malaria, individuals are often infected with different parasite strains. The complexity of infection (COI) is defined as the number of genetically distinct parasite strains in an individual. Changes in the mean COI in a population have been shown to be informative of changes in transmission intensity with a number of probabilistic likelihood and Bayesian models now developed to estimate the COI. However, rapid, direct measures based on heterozygosity or FwS do not properly represent the COI. In this work, we present two new methods that use easily calculated measures to directly estimate the COI from allele frequency data. Using a simulation framework, we show that our methods are computationally efficient and comparably accurate to current approaches in the literature. Through a sensitivity analysis, we characterize how the distribution of parasite densities, the assumed sequencing depth, and the number of sampled loci impact the bias and accuracy of our two methods. Using our developed methods, we further estimate the COI globally from Plasmodium falciparum sequencing data and compare the results against the literature. We show significant differences in the estimated COI globally between continents and a weak relationship between malaria prevalence and COI.

Effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions in the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Saudi Arabia.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been widely employed to control the COVID-19 pandemic. Their associated effect on SARS-CoV-2 transmission have however been unequally studied across regions. Few studies have focused on the Gulf states despite their potential role for global pandemic spread, in particular in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through religious pilgrimages. We study the association between NPIs and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia during the first pandemic wave between March and October 2020. We infer associations between NPIs introduction and lifting through a spatial SEIR-type model that allows for inferences of region-specific changes in transmission intensity. We find that reductions in transmission were associated with NPIs implemented shortly after the first reported case including Isolate and Test with School Closure (region-level mean estimates of the reduction in R0 ranged from 25-41%), Curfew (20-70% reduction), and Lockdown (50-60% reduction), although uncertainty in the estimates was high, particularly for the Isolate and Test with School Closure NPI (95% Credible Intervals from 1% to 73% across regions). Transmission was found to increase progressively in most regions during the last part of NPI relaxation phases. These results can help informing the policy makers in the planning of NPI scenarios as the pandemic evolves with the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the availability of vaccination.

Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax Adjust Investment in Transmission in Response to Change in Transmission Intensity: A Review of the Current State of Research.

Malaria parasites can adjust the proportion of parasites that develop into gametocytes, and thus the probability for human-to-vector transmission, through changes in the gametocyte conversion rate. Understanding the factors that impact the commitment of malaria parasites to transmission is required to design better control interventions. Plasmodium spp. persist across countries with vast differences in transmission intensities, and in sites where transmission is highly seasonal. Mounting evidence shows that Plasmodium spp. adjusts the investment in transmission according to seasonality of vector abundance, and transmission intensity. Various techniques to determine the investment in transmission are available, i.e., short-term culture, where the conversion rate can be measured most directly, genome and transcriptome studies, quantification of mature gametocytes, and mosquito feeding assays. In sites with seasonal transmission, the proportion of gametocytes, their densities and infectivity are higher during the wet season, when vectors are plentiful. When countries with pronounced differences in transmission intensity were compared, the investment in transmission was higher when transmission was low, thus maximizing the parasite’s chances to be transmitted to mosquitoes. Increased transmissibility of residual infections after a successful reduction of malaria transmission levels need to be considered when designing intervention measures.

Evaluating the Performance of Malaria Genetics for Inferring Changes in Transmission Intensity Using Transmission Modeling.

Substantial progress has been made globally to control malaria, however there is a growing need for innovative new tools to ensure continued progress. One approach is to harness genetic sequencing and accompanying methodological approaches as have been used in the control of other infectious diseases. However, to utilize these methodologies for malaria, we first need to extend the methods to capture the complex interactions between parasites, human and vector hosts, and environment, which all impact the level of genetic diversity and relatedness of malaria parasites. We develop an individual-based transmission model to simulate malaria parasite genetics parameterized using estimated relationships between complexity of infection and age from five regions in Uganda and Kenya. We predict that cotransmission and superinfection contribute equally to within-host parasite genetic diversity at 11.5% PCR prevalence, above which superinfections dominate. Finally, we characterize the predictive power of six metrics of parasite genetics for detecting changes in transmission intensity, before grouping them in an ensemble statistical model. The model predicted malaria prevalence with a mean absolute error of 0.055. Different assumptions about the availability of sample metadata were considered, with the most accurate predictions of malaria prevalence made when the clinical status and age of sampled individuals is known. Parasite genetics may provide a novel surveillance tool for estimating the prevalence of malaria in areas in which prevalence surveys are not feasible. However, the findings presented here reinforce the need for patient metadata to be recorded and made available within all future attempts to use parasite genetics for surveillance.

Observational study: 27\xa0years of severe malaria surveillance in Kilifi, Kenya

BackgroundMany parts of Africa have witnessed reductions in Plasmodium falciparum transmission over the last 15 years. Since immunity to malaria is acquired more rapidly at higher transmission, the slower acquisition of immunity at lower transmission may partially offset the benefits of reductions in transmission. We examined the clinical spectrum of disease and predictors of mortality after sustained changes in transmission intensity, using data collected from 1989 to 2016.MethodsWe conducted a temporal observational analysis of 18,000 children, aged 14 days to 14 years old, who were admitted to Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya, from 1989 to 2016 with malaria. We describe the trends over time of the clinical and laboratory criteria for severe malaria and associated risk of mortality.ResultsDuring the time periods 1989–2003, 2004–2008, and 2009–2016, Kilifi County Hospital admitted averages of 657, 310, and 174 cases of severe malaria per year including averages of 48, 14, and 12 malaria-associated deaths per year, respectively. The median ages in years of children admitted with cerebral malaria, severe anaemia, and malaria-associated mortality were 3.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2–3.9), 1.1 (95% CI 0.9–1.4), and 1.1 (95% CI 0.3–2.2) in the year 1989, rising to 4.9 (95% CI 3.9–5.9), 3.8 (95% CI 2.5–7.1), and 5 (95% CI 3.3–6.3) in the year 2016. The ratio of children with cerebral malaria to severe anaemia rose from 1:2 before 2004 to 3:2 after 2009. Hyperparasitaemia was a risk factor for death after 2009 but not in earlier time periods.ConclusionDespite the evidence of slower acquisition of immunity, continued reductions in the numbers of cases of severe malaria resulted in lower overall mortality. Our temporal data are limited to a single site, albeit potentially applicable to a secular trend present in many parts of Africa.

Dramatic Changes in Malaria Population Genetic Complexity in Dielmo and Ndiop, Senegal, Revealed Using Genomic Surveillance.

Dramatic changes in transmission intensity can impact Plasmodium population diversity. Using samples from 2 distant time-points in the Dielmo/Ndiop longitudinal cohorts from Senegal, we applied a molecular barcode tool to detect changes in parasite genotypes and complexity of infection that corresponded to changes in transmission intensity. We observed a striking statistically significant difference in genetic diversity between the 2 parasite populations. Furthermore, we identified a genotype in Dielmo and Ndiop previously observed in Thiès, potentially implicating imported malaria. This genetic surveillance study validates the molecular barcode as a tool to assess parasite population diversity changes and track parasite genotypes.

Beyond the entomological inoculation rate: characterizing multiple blood feeding behavior and Plasmodium falciparum multiplicity of infection in Anopheles mosquitoes in northern Zambia

BackgroundA commonly used measure of malaria transmission intensity is the entomological inoculation rate (EIR), defined as the product of the human biting rate (HBR) and sporozoite infection rate (SIR). The EIR excludes molecular parameters that may influence vector control and surveillance strategies. The purpose of this study was to investigate Anopheles multiple blood feeding behavior (MBF) and Plasmodium falciparum multiplicity of infection (MOI) within the mosquito host in Nchelenge District, northern Zambia. Mosquitoes were collected from light traps and pyrethroid spray catch in Nchelenge in the 2013 wet season. All anophelines were tested for blood meal host, P. falciparum, and MOI using PCR. Circumsporozoite (CSP) ELISA and microsatellite analysis were performed to detect parasites in the mosquito and MBF, respectively. Statistical analyses used regression models to assess MBF and MOI and exact binomial test for human sex bias. Both MBF and MOI can enhance our understanding of malaria transmission dynamics beyond what is currently understood through conventional EIR estimates alone.ResultsThe dominant malaria vectors collected in Nchelenge were Anopheles funestus (sensu stricto) and An. gambiae (s.s.) The EIRs of An. funestus (s.s.) and An. gambiae (s.s.) were 39.6 infectious bites/person/6 months (ib/p/6mo) and 5.9 ib/p/6mo, respectively, and took multiple human blood meals at high rates, 23.2 and 25.7% respectively. There was no bias in human host sex preference in the blood meals. The SIR was further characterized for parasite genetic diversity. The overall P. falciparum MOI was 6.4 in infected vectors, exceeding previously reported average MOIs in humans in Africa.ConclusionsBoth Anopheles MBF rates and P. falciparum MOI in Nchelenge were among some of the highest reported in sub-Saharan Africa. The results suggest an underestimation of the EIR and large numbers of circulating parasite clones. Together, the results describe important molecular aspects of transmission excluded from the traditional EIR measurement. These elements may provide more sensitive measures with which to assess changes in transmission intensity and risk in vector and parasite surveillance programs.

Localized Surface Plasmon Resonance-Based Micro-Capillary Biosensor

A highly sensitive localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR)-based micro-capillary biosensor for micro-measurement was described in this letter. The sensing strategy relies on the interrogation of changes in transmission intensity due to the evanescent field absorption of gold nanoparticles immobilized on the inner wall of micro-capillary. The absorbance due to the LSPR was found to be linear to refractive index changes between 1.328 and 1.3617, and the sensitivity was calculated to be 937%RIU -1 . Then, to evaluate the biosensing performance of the LSPR sensor, we demonstrated the capture of transferrin protein by a layer of anti-transferrin solution immobilized on the LSPR sensor at different concentrations. Experimental results suggest that the biosensor we reported presents a good performance in real-time biochemical detection. In addition, with the advantages of low cost, simplicity, high sensitivity, and less amount of samples required, the biosensor we reported can be used for rapid micro measurement in chemical, biological, and medical applications.

Assessing drivers of the IgG4 antibody reactivity to recombinant antigen Bm14 in Wuchereria bancrofti endemic populations in East Africa

A high proportion of the human population in lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic areas is positive for filarial specific IgG4 antibodies, including many individuals without microfilariae (mf; circulating larvae in the human blood) or circulating filarial antigens (CFA; marker of adult worm infection). The antibodies are commonly regarded as markers of infection and/or exposure to filarial larvae, but a direct association between the antibodies and these indices has not been well documented. The present study assessed the role and relative effect of potential drivers of the human IgG4 antibody reactivity to the recombinant filarial antigen Bm14 in Wuchereria bancrofti endemic populations in East Africa. Sera collected during previous studies from 395 well characterized individuals with regard to age, sex, mf, CFA, household vector biting and household exposure to infective filarial larvae were tested for IgG4 antibodies to Bm14, and associations between antibody reactivity and the different variables were statistically analyzed. IgG4 reactivity to Bm14 was highly positively associated with CFA, and to a lesser extent with age. However, an expected association with household exposure to infective filarial larvae was not found. Bm14 antibody reactivity thus appeared mainly to reflect actual infection of individuals with adult filarial worms rather than ongoing exposure to transmission. The analyses moreover suggested that many of the CFA negative but Bm14 positive individuals had early or low level infections where antibodies had been induced but where CFA was not (yet?) measurable. Although the study indicated that IgG4 reactivity to Bm14 is a marker of filarial infection, assessment of this reactivity, especially in children, will still be useful for indirect monitoring of changes in transmission intensity, including break of transmission and post-elimination surveillance, in LF control.

Assessment of molecular markers for anti-malarial drug resistance after the introduction and scale-up of malaria control interventions in western Kenya.

BackgroundAlthough it is well known that drug pressure selects for drug-resistant parasites, the role of transmission reduction by insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs) on drug resistance remains unclear. In this study, the drug resistance profile of current and previous first-line anti-malarials in Kenya was assessed within the context of drug policy change and scale-up of ITNs. National first-line treatment changed from chloroquine (CQ) to sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in 1998 and to artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in 2004. ITN use was scaled-up in the Asembo, Gem and Karemo areas of western Kenya in 1997, 1999 and 2006, respectively.MethodsSmear-positive samples (N = 253) collected from a 2007 cross-sectional survey among children in Asembo, Gem and Karemo were genotyped for mutations in pfcrt and pfmdr1 (CQ), dhfr and dhps (SP), and at pfmdr-N86 and the gene copy number in pfmdr1 (lumefantrine). Results were compared among the three geographic areas in 2007 and to retrospective molecular data from children in Asembo in 2001.ResultsIn 2007, 69 and 85% of samples harboured the pfmdr1-86Y mutation and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant, respectively, with no significant differences by study area. However, the prevalence of the pfcrt-76T mutation differed significantly among areas (p <0.02), between 76 and 94%, with the highest prevalence in Asembo. Several 2007 samples carried mutations at dhfr-164L, dhps-436A, or dhps-613T. From 2001 to 2007, there were significant increases in the pfcrt-76T mutation from 82 to 94% (p <0.03), dhfr/dhps quintuple mutant from 62 to 82% (p <0.03), and an increase in the septuple CQ and SP combined mutant haplotype, K76Y86I51R59N108G437E540, from 28 to 39%. The prevalence of the pfmdr1-86Y mutation remained unchanged. All samples were single copy for pfmdr1.ConclusionsMolecular markers associated with lumefantrine resistance were not detected in 2007. More recent samples will be needed to detect any selective effects by AL. The prevalence of CQ and SP resistance markers increased from 2001 to 2007 in the absence of changes in transmission intensity. In 2007, only the prevalence of pfcrt-76T mutation differed among study areas of varying transmission intensity. Resistant parasites were most likely selected by sustained drug pressure from the continued use of CQ, SP, and mechanistically similar drugs, such as amodiaquine and cotrimoxazole. There was no clear evidence that differences in transmission intensity, as a result of ITN scale-up, influenced the prevalence of drug resistance molecular markers.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0588-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Anti-sporozoite antibodies as alternative markers for malaria transmission intensity estimation

BackgroundReported malaria cases continue to decline globally, and this has been attributed to strategic implementation of multiple malaria control tools. Gains made would however need to be sustained through continuous monitoring to ensure malaria elimination and eradication. Entomological inoculation rate (EIR) is currently the standard tool for transmission monitoring but this is not sensitive enough, especially in areas of very low transmission. Transmission estimation models based on seroconversion rates (λ) of antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum blood stage antigens are gaining relevance. Estimates of λ, which is the measure of transmission intensity, correlate with EIR but are limited by long-term persistence of antibodies to blood stage antigens. Seroprevalence of antibodies to sporozoite antigens may be better alternatives since these antigens usually have shorter immune exposure times. The aim of this study was to develop transmission estimation models based on the seroprevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum sporozoite antigens (CSP, CelTOS) and compare with models based on the classical blood stage antigen AMA1.MethodsAntibody levels in archived plasma from three cross-sectional surveys conducted in 2009 in a low transmission area of Southern Ghana were assessed by indirect ELISA. Seroprevalence of antibodies against CSP, CelTOS and AMA1 were fitted to reversible catalytic models to estimate λ and corresponding seroreversion rates (ρ) for each antibody.ResultsOf the three models developed, the anti-CSP model predicted a 13-fold decrease in λ four years prior to the time of sampling (2009). Anti-AMA1 antibodies formed at a four-fold greater rate compared to that of anti-CelTOS antibodies, and anti-CSP antibodies during the period of decreased λ. In contrast, anti-AMA1 antibodies decayed at a five-fold slower rate relative to that of anti-CSP antibodies while anti-AMA1 and anti-CelTOS antibody decay rates were not significantly different. Anti-CSP antibodies were relatively short-lived as they formed at an 11.6-fold slower rate relative to their decay during the period of decreased λ.ConclusionsThese features of anti-CSP antibodies can be exploited for the development of models for predicting seasonal, short-term changes in transmission intensity in malaria-endemic areas, especially as the elimination phase of malaria control is approached.

Using serological measures to monitor changes in malaria transmission in Vanuatu

BackgroundWith renewed interest in malaria elimination, island environments present unique opportunities to achieve this goal. However, as transmission decreases, monitoring and evaluation programmes need increasingly sensitive tools to assess Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax exposure. In 2009, to assess the role of serological markers in evaluating malaria transmission, a cross-sectional seroprevalence study was carried out in Tanna and Aneityum, two of the southernmost islands of the Vanuatu archipelago, areas where malaria transmission has been variably reduced over the past few decades.MethodsMalaria transmission was assessed using serological markers for exposure to P. falciparum and P. vivax. Filter blood spot papers were collected from 1,249 people from Tanna, and 517 people from Aneityum to assess the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-119 and AMA-1) and two P. vivax antigens (MSP-119 and AMA-1). Age-specific prevalence was modelled using a simple catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate a community seroconversion rate (SCR).ResultsOverall seropositivity in Tanna was 9.4%, 12.4% and 16.6% to P. falciparum MSP-119, AMA-1 and Schizont Extract respectively and 12.6% and 15.0% to P. vivax MSP-119 and AMA-1 respectively. Serological results distinguished between areas of differential dominance of either P. vivax or P. falciparum and analysis of age-stratified results showed a step in seroprevalence occurring approximately 30 years ago on both islands, indicative of a change in transmission intensity at this time. Results from Aneityum suggest that several children may have been exposed to malaria since the 2002 P. vivax epidemic.ConclusionSeroepidemiology can provide key information on malaria transmission for control programmes, when parasite rates are low. As Vanuatu moves closer to malaria elimination, monitoring changes in transmission intensity and identification of residual malaria foci is paramount in order to concentrate intervention efforts.

Terahertz Band-Pass Filter Fabricated by Multilayer Ceramic Technology

We fabricated a terahertz (THz) band-pass filter using multilayer ceramic technology. The filter design is based on an interference multilayer filter composed of three resonant cavities. The filter exhibited insertion loss as low as 1.5 dB at a center frequency of 0.15 THz. The bandwidth of the passband was modified by changing the optical length of the cavity. A demonstrated tuning of the full width at half maximum (FWHM) ranged from 12.5 to 6.9%. No significant change in transmission intensity was observed when the optical length of the cavity was changed. At a frequency of approximately 0.8 THz, filter insertion loss increased from 1.5 to 6 dB. The influence of dielectric losses of the ceramic materials on the filter insertion loss is also discussed.

Estimating medium- and long-term trends in malaria transmission by using serological markers of malaria exposure

The implementation and evaluation of malaria control programs would be greatly facilitated by new tools for the rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Because acquisition and maintenance of antimalarial antibodies depend on exposure to malaria infection, such antibodies might be used as proxy measures of transmission intensity. We have compared the prevalence of IgG antibodies with three Plasmodium falciparum asexual stage antigens in individuals of all ages living at varying altitudes encompassing a range of transmission intensities from hyper- to hypoendemic in northeastern Tanzania, with alternative measures of transmission intensity. The prevalence of antibodies to merozoite surface protein-1(19) was significantly more closely correlated with altitude than either point-prevalence malaria parasitemia or single measures of hemoglobin concentration. Analysis of age-specific seroprevalence rates enabled differentiation of recent (seasonal) changes in transmission intensity from longer-term transmission trends and, using a mathematical model of the annual rate of seroconversion, estimation of the longevity of the antibody response. Thus, serological tools allow us to detect variations in malaria transmission over time. Such tools will be invaluable for monitoring trends in malaria endemicity and the effectiveness of malaria control programs.