Changes In Trade Costs Research Articles

The gains from changes in internal trade costs: A quantitative analysis of China

AbstractWe study how internal trade costs affect the Chinese economy. Combining regional and industry data with a multiregional multisector general equilibrium model, we quantify the magnitude of total trade costs and institutional trade costs, and the impact of their changes on aggregate, regional, and sectoral total factor productivity, gross domestic product, and welfare. Using unique data, we estimate the sectoral trade elasticity of internal trade in 16 tradable sectors. We use our calibrated model to perform a variety of counterfactual exercises. We find that the welfare gains are negative for a 5% reduction in total trade costs and for the elimination of institutional trade costs, which can be attributed to inherent inefficiencies in the economy. However, as total trade costs decrease further, the positive welfare effect significantly exceeds the impact of inefficiency. The regional and sectoral effects of changes in trade costs show that the spatial structure of the economy, input‐output linkages, and local factors together determine the heterogeneity of sectoral and regional consequences. Finally, we infer the relative changes in China's internal trade costs from 2012 to 2017, and calculate their economic effects.

Unequal Expenditure Switching: Evidence from Switzerland

Abstract What are the unequal effects of changes in consumer prices on the cost of living? In the context of changes in import prices (driven by, e.g. changes in trade costs or exchange rates), most analyses focus on variation across households in initial expenditure shares on imported goods. However, the unequal welfare effects of non-marginal foreign price changes also depend on differences in how consumers substitute between imported and domestic goods, on which there is scant evidence. Using data from Switzerland surrounding the 2015 appreciation of the Swiss franc, we provide evidence that lower-income households have higher price elasticities. We quantify the contribution of heterogeneous elasticities for the unequal welfare effects of observed price changes between 2014 and 2015 and for counterfactual shocks to the mean and dispersion of import price changes.

Dynamics of Large Multinationals

Abstract Multinational enterprises are very large multi-product firms. To capture salient features of the data, we develop a model of large multinational enterprises, each one producing a continuum of products. These outsized firms compete as oligopolists in domestic and foreign markets, facing competitive pressure from monopolistically competitive single-product firms. The multinational enterprises engage in foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to expand the product scope of their foreign affiliates, and they invest in research and development (R&D) in order to invent new products. We study the dynamic evolution of these enterprises and characterize transition dynamics and steady states. We also characterize the evolution of prices, markups, market shares, and exports relative to subsidiary sales. Furthermore, we study comparative dynamics that result from changes in trade costs, R&D costs, FDI costs, and productivity. Finally, we illustrate the use of our model for an analysis of mergers.

Markups, quality, and trade costs

This paper examines how trade costs induced by geographic distance or bilateral tariffs impact the markups of exports differentiated by quality. It relies on a data set that combines Argentinean firm-level wine exports with experts’ wine ratings as a measure of quality. Exporters price discriminate across destinations by raising markups in more distant markets, and by lowering them in high-tariff countries. However, the response of markups to changes in trade costs is heterogeneous and weaker for higher quality exports. These empirical patterns can be predicted by trade models featuring demand functions more convex than log-concave, but less than superconvex. They demonstrate that the variation in firm-level export unit values across markets is not only driven by quality differences but also by markup variation conditional on quality.

When the threat is stronger than the execution: trade and welfare under oligopoly

AbstractWe compare the effects of changes in trade costs on trade volumes and on the gains from trade under Cournot and Bertrand competition. In both cases, the threshold trade costs below which the possibility of trade affects the domestic firm's behavior is the same; and welfare is U‐shaped under reasonable conditions. However, welfare is typically greater under Bertrand competition; for higher trade costs the volume of trade is greater under Cournot competition, implying a “van‐der‐Rohe Region”; and, for even higher trade costs, there exists a “Nimzowitsch Region”, where welfare is higher under Bertrand competition even though no trade takes place.

Potential Consequences of Post‐Brexit Trade Barriers for Earnings Inequality in the UK

We examine the distributional consequences of post‐Brexit trade barriers on wages in the UK. We quantify changes in trade costs across industries, accounting for input–output links across domestic industries and global value chains. We allow for demand substitution by firms and consumers, and worker reallocation across industries. We document the impact at the individual and household level. Blue‐collar workers are the most exposed to negative consequences of higher trade costs, because they are more likely to be employed in industries that face increases in trade costs, and are less likely to have good alternative employment opportunities available in their local labour markets. Overall, new trade costs have a regressive impact, with lower‐paid workers facing higher exposure than higher‐paid workers once we account for the exposure of other household members.

Belt and Roadd: The China Dreamm?

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs and investment, on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach, where the production side is modeled using mobile capital flows. Our results indicate substantial gains from the BRI for China and the EU where a 15 percent reduction in transportation costs between China and the EU would increase the welfare of a representative consumer in China by 1.27 percent and the EU by 0.5 percent. On the other hand, we find that signing and implementing an FTA between China and the EU is equivalent to transport cost reductions in excess of 30 percent. Combining the BRI with a deep FTA with the EU would increase welfare by 4.37 (China) and 1.99 percent (EU). Where transport cost reductions are 25 percent or more, the potential negative effect of the China-US trade war on China is more than compensated for by the BRI initiative, and Chinese investment would further increase welfare of the countries participating in this project.

Belt and road: The China dream?

This paper explores the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), in terms of changes in trade costs on trade and consumer welfare in China, the EU, and the rest of the World. We employ a general equilibrium structural gravity approach and conduct a counterfactual analysis. Our key findings are as follows: (i) China and the EU are expected to make substantial gains from the BRI due to reductions in transport costs; (ii) signing and implementing a deep FTA between China and the EU is equivalent to transport cost reductions of 15–20%; (iii) the joint policy of the BRI and FTA is super-additive, magnifying the gains from the separate policies; and (iv) where transport cost reductions are 20% or more, the potential negative effect of the China-US trade war on China is more than compensated for by the BRI initiative. Our results provide evidence that the BRI has the potential to deliver significant welfare gains, particularly if combined with other trade integration schemes, and to counterbalance aggressive trade policies.

Telemigration and Development: On the Offshorability of Teleworkable Jobs

The Covid-19 pandemic has introduced huge numbers of employers and employees to remote work. How many of these newly remote jobs will go overseas? We offer a rough quantification based on two observations: 1) offshore work is trade in services, and 2) the number of telemigrants is the volume of this trade divided by the average wage. Combining these with gravity-model estimates, we can roughly predict the number of new telemigrants that would arise from lower barriers to trade in services. Telemigration seems unlikely to be transformative when it comes to the development paths of most emerging economies. The baseline service trade flows are modest, and the standard gravity model restricts modest changes to have modest impacts. There are no tipping points in structural gravity models. Finally, we propose a simple model of telemigration in which small changes can have large consequences. The key is to assume that latent comparative advantage takes a different shape than typically assumed in quantitative trade models. Given this, small changes in trade costs can generate large and asymmetric increases in the exports of service tasks from low-wage nations.

Dynamics of Large Multinationals

We develop a model of large multinational enterprises, each one producing a continuum of products. These outsized firms compete as oligopolists in a domestic and foreign market, facing competitive pressure from single-product firms that engage in monopolistic competition. The multinational enterprises invest in R&D in order to expand the span of their products and in foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to expand the range of products manufactured by their foreign affiliates. We study the dynamic evolution of these markets and characterize transition dynamics and steady states. In addition to the evolution of product spans, we characterize the evolution of prices, markups, market shares, and exports relative to subsidiary sales. Furthermore, we study comparative dynamics that result from changes in trade costs, R&D costs, the cost of FDI and productivity changes of the multinational firms.

The effects of market integration during the first globalization: a multi-market approach

AbstractThis paper is a first attempt to measure the effects of international market integration on world trade and welfare in the ``long nineteenth century”. We run a multi-market partial equilibrium model, which takes into account the interactions between route-specific changes in trade costs, for the two most traded commodities, cotton and wheat. The collapse in trade costs accounted for 60 percent of the growth of trade for cotton and for 40 percent for wheat. As expected, welfare gains were larger for small open economies, but they were substantial also for large countries, with big differences determined by trade policies.

Footloose Global Value Chains: How Trade Costs Make a Difference

The geography of global value chains (GVCs) depends crucially on trade costs between countries that host the various stages of production, and some stages might be more sensitive to trade costs than are other stages. In this paper, we exploit a value-added decomposition of bilateral trade flows to distinguish the low value-added GVC trade that is typically associated with production stages such as assembly, from the high value-added GVC trade that is associated with stages such as R&D and design. We test the hypothesis that low value-added stages are more easily rerouted—given changes in trade costs between importing and exporting countries—than are high value-added stages. The intuition for this hypothesis is that trade costs accumulate with multiple border crossings and are larger relative to the profit margins in low value-added stages. Furthermore, high value-added stages often require larger fixed cost investments that are often highly relationship-specific and knowledge-intensive, making them harder to relocate. We find strong empirical support for this hypothesis. This observation has important implications for development policies and bilateral trade policies that are aimed at reducing imbalances by repatriating offshored production stages.

VALUE CHAINS AND DOMESTIC COMPETITIVENESS

With international trade increasingly undertaken within vertically fragmented supply chains, this paper considers the impact of changes in trade costs on domestic output. In the context of the UK’s exit from the EU we show that the negative impact on UK output will depend on changes in both domestic and export competitiveness. Since for many firms the majority of their sales are to the domestic market, the domestic competitiveness impact may be quantitatively more important. The impact on output will be more significant the greater the integration of firms in international supply chains, and the greater the asymmetric impact of leaving the EU on UK firms relative to EU firms.

The effect of migration policy on growth, structural change, and regional inequality in China

Between 2000 and 2015, China’s aggregate income quadrupled, its provincial income inequality fell by a third, and its share of employment in agriculture fell by a half. Internal migration is central to this transformation, with the number of internal migrant workers reaching 300 million by 2015. Combining rich data on migration with a spatial general equilibrium model of China’s economy, we quantify the size and the impact of internal migration cost reductions in China between 2000 and 2015. During the 15-year period, China’s internal migration costs fell by forty-five percent. In addition to contributing substantially to growth, these migration cost changes account for the majority of the reallocation of workers out of agriculture and the drop in regional inequality. We compare the effect of migration policy changes with other important economic changes, including changes in trade costs, capital market distortions, average cost of capital, and productivity. While each contributes meaningfully to growth, migration policy changes are central to China’s structural change and regional income convergence. We also find that the recent slow-down in aggregate economic growth between 2010 and 2015 is associated with smaller reduction in inter-provincial migration costs and a larger role of capital accumulation.

Common Transport Infrastructure: A Quantitative Model and Estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. The model builds on Caliendo and Parro (2015) to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects on trade costs of transport infrastructure related to the initiative, the model shows that gross domestic product will increase by up to 3.4 percent for participating countries and by up to 2.9 percent for the world. Because trade gains are not commensurate with projected investments, some countries may experience a negative welfare effect due to the high cost of the infrastructure.

On the Geography of Global Value Chains

This paper develops a multi‐stage general‐equilibrium model of global value chains (GVCs) and studies the specialization of countries within GVCs in a world with barriers to international trade. With costly trade, the optimal location of production of a given stage in a GVC is not only a function of the marginal cost at which that stage can be produced in a given country, but is also shaped by the proximity of that location to the precedent and the subsequent desired locations of production. We show that, other things equal, it is optimal to locate relatively downstream stages of production in relatively central locations. We also develop and estimate a tractable, quantifiable version of our model that illustrates how changes in trade costs affect the extent to which various countries participate in domestic, regional, or global value chains, and traces the real income consequences of these changes.

Common transport infrastructure: A quantitative model and estimates from the Belt and Road Initiative

This paper presents a structural general equilibrium model to analyze the effects on trade, welfare, and gross domestic product of common transport infrastructure. The model builds on Caliendo and Parro (2015) to allow for changes in trade costs due to improvements in transportation infrastructure, financed through domestic taxation, connecting multiple countries. The model highlights the trade impact of infrastructure investments through cross-border input-output linkages. This framework is then used to quantify the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative. Using new estimates on the effects on trade costs of transport infrastructure related to the initiative, the model shows that gross domestic product will increase by up to 3.4 percent for participating countries and by up to 2.9 percent for the world. Because trade gains are not commensurate with projected investments, some countries may experience a negative welfare effect due to the high cost of the infrastructure.

GAINS FROM TRADE WITH VARIABLE TRADE ELASTICITIES

AbstractWe measure gains from trade in multisector economies with nonhomothetic preferences where changes in trade costs generate reallocation of expenditure across sectors. We show how to measure the trade elasticity and how it relates to welfare. In this environment, the trade elasticity now varies both across countries and with levels of trade costs. In an application, we find that the trade elasticity varies substantially across countries and that the gains from moving from autarky to observed trade are on average between 24% and 28% greater than in a model where the trade elasticity is constant.

Understanding the international elasticity puzzle

International trade studies have higher macro elasticity measures compared to international finance studies, which has evoked mixed policy implications regarding the effects of a change in trade costs versus exchange rates on welfare measures. This so-called international elasticity puzzle is investigated in this paper by drawing attention to the alternative strategies that the two literatures use for the aggregation of foreign products in consumer utility functions. Using the implications of having a finite number of foreign countries in nested CES frameworks that are consistent with the two literatures, the discrepancy between the elasticity measures is explained by showing theoretically and confirming empirically that the macro elasticity in international trade is a weighted average of the macro elasticity in international finance and the corresponding elasticity of substitution across products of foreign source countries.

Dissecting Gains from Trade: Changes in Welfare Cost of Autarky

Amid a general rise in protectionism and a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, this paper analyzes changes in gains from trade for the world over a decade marked by rapid global economic integration preceding the global financial crisis of 2007-08. It employs state-of-the-art quantitative trade models based on the gravity equation to estimate autarky gains from trade, as well as a recently introduced ANOVA-type structural estimation of the gravity equation to obtain trade costs free of residual trade cost bias. Between 1995 and 2006, the cost of moving to autarky increased by about 45% on average. A decomposition exercise suggests most of the increase in autarky gains from trade on average was due to increases in import shares in total spending, with a limited role for reallocations of spending across sectors with varied trade elasticities. Changes in trade costs between 1995 and 2006 are found to have increased autarky gains from trade, as measured in 2006, by up to 100%.