Changes In Surface Mass Balance Research Articles

Greenland Surface Mass Balance as Simulated by the Community Earth System Model. Part II: Twenty-First-Century Changes

Abstract This study presents the first twenty-first-century projections of surface mass balance (SMB) changes for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), which includes a new ice sheet component. For glaciated surfaces, CESM includes a sophisticated calculation of energy fluxes, surface albedo, and snowpack hydrology (melt, percolation, refreezing, etc.). To efficiently resolve the high SMB gradients at the ice sheet margins and provide surface forcing at the scale needed by ice sheet models, the SMB is calculated at multiple elevations and interpolated to a finer 5-km ice sheet grid. During a twenty-first-century simulation driven by representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) forcing, the SMB decreases from 372 ± 100 Gt yr−1 in 1980–99 to −78 ± 143 Gt yr−1 in 2080–99. The 2080–99 near-surface temperatures over the GIS increase by 4.7 K (annual mean) with respect to 1980–99, only 1.3 times the global increase (+3.7 K). Snowfall increases by 18%, while surface melt doubles. The ablation area increases from 9% of the GIS in 1980–99 to 28% in 2080–99. Over the ablation areas, summer downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes increase, while incoming shortwave radiation decreases owing to increased cloud cover. The reduction in GIS-averaged July albedo from 0.78 in 1980–99 to 0.75 in 2080–99 increases the absorbed solar radiation in this month by 12%. Summer warming is strongest in the north and east of Greenland owing to reduced sea ice cover. In the ablation area, summer temperature increases are smaller due to frequent periods of surface melt.

Enhanced basal lubrication and the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea-level rise

We assess the effect of enhanced basal sliding on the flow and mass budget of the Greenland ice sheet, using a newly developed parameterization of the relation between meltwater runoff and ice flow. A wide range of observations suggest that water generated by melt at the surface of the ice sheet reaches its bed by both fracture and drainage through moulins. Once at the bed, this water is likely to affect lubrication, although current observations are insufficient to determine whether changes in subglacial hydraulics will limit the potential for the speedup of flow. An uncertainty analysis based on our best-fit parameterization admits both possibilities: continuously increasing or bounded lubrication. We apply the parameterization to four higher-order ice-sheet models in a series of experiments forced by changes in both lubrication and surface mass budget and determine the additional mass loss brought about by lubrication in comparison with experiments forced only by changes in surface mass balance. We use forcing from a regional climate model, itself forced by output from the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM5) global climate model run under scenario A1B. Although changes in lubrication generate widespread effects on the flow and form of the ice sheet, they do not affect substantial net mass loss; increase in the ice sheet's contribution to sea-level rise from basal lubrication is projected by all models to be no more than 5% of the contribution from surface mass budget forcing alone.

Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model

A regional atmospheric climate model with multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs (ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states. Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m) increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200), simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes. During the next two centuries, the projected increase in liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–200 Gt year−1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year−1). Sublimation increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in 2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of 20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong relation between \(\Updelta\)SMB and \(\Updelta\hbox{T}_{2{\rm m}}\) of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e. year−1 K−1 is found.

Estimating the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance contribution to future sea level rise using the regional atmospheric climate model MAR

Abstract. To estimate the sea level rise (SLR) originating from changes in surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS), we present 21st century climate projections obtained with the regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional), forced by output of three CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) general circulation models (GCMs). Our results indicate that in a warmer climate, mass gain from increased winter snowfall over the GrIS does not compensate mass loss through increased meltwater run-off in summer. Despite the large spread in the projected near-surface warming, all the MAR projections show similar non-linear increase of GrIS surface melt volume because no change is projected in the general atmospheric circulation over Greenland. By coarsely estimating the GrIS SMB changes from GCM output, we show that the uncertainty from the GCM-based forcing represents about half of the projected SMB changes. In 2100, the CMIP5 ensemble mean projects a GrIS SMB decrease equivalent to a mean SLR of +4 ± 2 cm and +9 ± 4 cm for the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively. These estimates do not consider the positive melt–elevation feedback, although sensitivity experiments using perturbed ice sheet topographies consistent with the projected SMB changes demonstrate that this is a significant feedback, and highlight the importance of coupling regional climate models to an ice sheet model. Such a coupling will allow the assessment of future response of both surface processes and ice-dynamic changes to rising temperatures, as well as their mutual feedbacks.

A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr

Abstract. Global climate models suggest that Antarctic snowfall should increase in a warming climate and mitigate rises in the sea level. Several processes affect surface mass balance (SMB), introducing large uncertainties in past, present and future ice sheet mass balance. To provide an extended perspective on the past SMB of Antarctica, we used 67 firn/ice core records to reconstruct the temporal variability in the SMB over the past 800 yr and, in greater detail, over the last 200 yr. Our SMB reconstructions indicate that the SMB changes over most of Antarctica are statistically negligible and that the current SMB is not exceptionally high compared to the last 800 yr. High-accumulation periods have occurred in the past, specifically during the 1370s and 1610s. However, a clear increase in accumulation of more than 10% has occurred in high SMB coastal regions and over the highest part of the East Antarctic ice divide since the 1960s. To explain the differences in behaviour between the coastal/ice divide sites and the rest of Antarctica, we suggest that a higher frequency of blocking anticyclones increases the precipitation at coastal sites, leading to the advection of moist air in the highest areas, whereas blowing snow and/or erosion have significant negative impacts on the SMB at windy sites. Eight hundred years of stacked records of the SMB mimic the total solar irradiance during the 13th and 18th centuries. The link between those two variables is probably indirect and linked to a teleconnection in atmospheric circulation that forces complex feedback between the tropical Pacific and Antarctica via the generation and propagation of a large-scale atmospheric wave train.

Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet Projections to Model Formulations

AbstractPhysically based projections of the Greenland ice sheet contribution to future sea-level change are subject to uncertainties of the atmospheric and oceanic climatic forcing and to the formulations within the ice flow model itself. Here a higher-order, three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model is used, initialized to the present-day geometry. The forcing comes from a high-resolution regional climate model and from a flowline model applied to four individual marine-terminated glaciers, and results are subsequently extended to the entire ice sheet. The experiments span the next 200 years and consider climate scenario SRES A1B. The surface mass-balance (SMB) scheme is taken either from a regional climate model or from a positive-degree-day (PDD) model using temperature and precipitation anomalies from the underlying climate models. Our model results show that outlet glacier dynamics only account for 6–18% of the sea-level contribution after 200 years, confirming earlier findings that stress the dominant effect of SMB changes. Furthermore, interaction between SMB and ice discharge limits the importance of outlet glacier dynamics with increasing atmospheric forcing. Forcing from the regional climate model produces a 14–31 % higher sea-level contribution compared to a PDD model run with the same parameters as for IPCC AR4.

21st century projections of surface mass balance changes for major drainage systems of the Greenland ice sheet

Outputs from the regional climate model Modèle Atmosphérique Régionale at a spatial resolution of 25 km are used to study 21st century projected surface mass balance (SMB) over six major drainage basins of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). The regional model is forced with the outputs of three different Earth System Models (CanESM2, NorESM1 and MIROC5) obtained when considering two greenhouse gas future scenarios with levels of CO2 equivalent of, respectively, 850 and >1370 ppm by 2100. Results indicate that the increase in runoff due to warming will exceed the increased precipitation deriving from the increase in evaporation for all basins, with the amount of net loss of mass at the surface varying spatially. Basins along the southwest and north coast are projected to have the highest sensitivity of SMB to increasing temperatures. For these basins, the global temperature anomaly corresponding to a decrease of the SMB below the 1980–99 average (when the ice sheet was near the equilibrium) ranges between +0.60 and +2.16 °C. For the basins along the northwest and northeast, these values range between +1.50 and +3.40 °C. Our results are conservative as they do not account for ice dynamics and changes in the ice sheet topography.

Potential for bias in 21st century semiempirical sea level projections

We examine the limitations of a semiempirical model characterized by a sea level projection of 73 cm with RCP4.5 scenario by 2100. Calibrating the model with data to 1990 and then simulating the period 1993–2009 produces sea level in close agreement with acceleration in sea level rise observed by satellite altimetry. Nonradiative forcing contributors, such as long‐term adjustment of Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets since Last Glacial Maximum, abyssal ocean warming, and terrestrial water storage, may bias model calibration which, if corrected for, tend to reduce median sea level projections at 2100 by 2–10 cm, though this is within the confidence interval. We apply the semiempirical approach to simulate individual contributions from thermal expansion and small glacier melting. Steric sea level projections agree within 3 cm of output from process‐based climate models. In contrast, semiempirical simulation of melting from glaciers is 26 cm, which is twice large as estimates from some process‐based models; however, all process models lack simulation of calving, which likely accounts for 50% of small glacier mass loss worldwide. Furthermore, we suggest that changes in surface mass balance and dynamics of Greenland ice sheet made contributions to the sea level rise in the early 20th century and therefore are included within the semiempirical model calibration period and hence are included in semiempirical sea level projections by 2100. Antarctic response is probably absent from semiempirical models, which will lead to a underestimate in sea level rise if, as is probable, Antarctica loses mass by 2100.

Thirty years of elevation change on Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves from multimission satellite radar altimetry

We use data acquired between 1978 and 2008 by four satellite radar altimeter missions (Seasat, ERS‐1, ERS‐2 and Envisat) to determine multidecadal elevation change rates (dhi/dt) for six major Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice shelves. In areas covered by the Seasat orbit (to 72.16°S), regional‐averaged 30‐year trends were negative (surface lowering), with rates between −0.03 and −0.16 m a−1. Surface lowering preceded the start of near‐continuous radar altimeter operations that began with ERS‐1 in 1992. The average rate of lowering for the first 14 years of the period was typically smaller than the 30‐year average; the exception was the southern Wilkins Ice Shelf, which experienced negligible lowering between 2000 and 2008, when a series of large calving events began. Analyses of the continuous ERS/Envisat time series (to 81.5°) for 1992–2008 reveal a period of strong negative dhi/dt on most ice shelves between 1992 and 1995. Based on prior studies of regional atmospheric and oceanic conditions, we hypothesize that the observed elevation changes on Larsen C Ice Shelf are driven primarily by firn compaction while the western AP ice shelves are responding to changes in both surface mass balance and basal melt rates. Our time series also show that large changes in dhi/dt can occur on interannual time scales, reinforcing the importance of long time series altimetry to separate long‐term trends associated with climate change from interannual to interdecadal natural variability.

The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

Abstract. The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard's surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard's SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard's glaciers due to future Arctic warming.

Relative contribution of surface mass-balance and ice-flux changes to the accelerated thinning of Mer de Glace, French Alps, over1979-2008

AbstractBy subtracting surface topographies from 1979, 1994, 2000 and 2008, we measured icethinning rates increasing from 1 ma-1 (1979-94) to >4 ma-1 (2000-08) on the tongue of Mer de Glace, French Alps. The relative contributions of changes in surface mass balance and ice fluxes to this acceleration in the thinning are estimated using field and remote-sensing measurements. Between 1979-94 and 2000-08, surface mass balance diminished by 1.2mw.e.a-1, mainly because of atmospheric warming. Mass-balance changes induced by the growing debris-covered area and the evolving glacier hypsometry compensated each other. Meanwhile, Mer de Glace slowed down and the ice fluxes through two cross sections at 2200 and 2050ma.s.l. decreased by 60%. Between 1979-94 and 2000-08, two-thirds of the increase in the thinning rates was caused by reduced ice fluxes and one- third by rising surface ablation. However, these numbers need to be interpreted cautiously given our inability to respect mass conservation below our upper cross section. An important implication is that large errors would occur if one term of the continuity equation (e.g. surface mass balance) were deduced from the two others (e.g. elevation and ice-flux changes).

Century-scale relative sea-level changes in West Greenland — A plausibility study to assess contributions from the cryosphere and the ocean

This paper interprets high resolution relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions obtained from recently deposited salt-marsh sediments in Greenland. The primary aim of this study is to determine the relative contribution to the RSL observations from local to regional ice mass changes as well as density-related (steric) variations in the adjacent ocean. At sites in west Greenland, RSL rise slows from ~3mm/yr to ~0mm/yr at 400years BP and is stable thereafter. In south Greenland, a similar RSL slowdown is also observed but this occurs approximately 200yrs later. Substantial contributions from oceanographic changes are ruled out as dominant drivers of the RSL slowdown in western Greenland but could be more important at Nanortalik. Model sensitivity tests indicate that the RSL data are not compatible with a dominant dynamic ice loss via the Jakobshavn Isbrae outlet glacier as the region of ice loss and the resulting sea-level trends are too localised. Regional changes in ice thickness related to surface mass balance changes can explain the observed RSL signals but only if there is dominant mass loss during the period 400years BP to present. This conclusion is unaffected even when uncertainties in Earth viscosity structure are taken into account. However, it is plausible that some of the RSL fall may be due to reduced ice growth at the onset of the Little Ice Age. A high resolution mass balance history of the Greenland Ice Sheet over the past few millennia and the influence of lateral Earth structure on predictions of RSL change are identified as priority areas of study in order to confidently separate local, ‘transient’ (e.g. elastic and gravitational) RSL changes from the long-term viscous contribution associated primarily with deglacial changes.

Committed sea-level rise for the next century from Greenland ice sheet dynamics during the past decade

We use a three-dimensional, higher-order ice flow model and a realistic initial condition to simulate dynamic perturbations to the Greenland ice sheet during the last decade and to assess their contribution to sea level by 2100. Starting from our initial condition, we apply a time series of observationally constrained dynamic perturbations at the marine termini of Greenland's three largest outlet glaciers, Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim Glacier, and Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier. The initial and long-term diffusive thinning within each glacier catchment is then integrated spatially and temporally to calculate a minimum sea-level contribution of approximately 1 ± 0.4 mm from these three glaciers by 2100. Based on scaling arguments, we extend our modeling to all of Greenland and estimate a minimum dynamic sea-level contribution of approximately 6 ± 2 mm by 2100. This estimate of committed sea-level rise is a minimum because it ignores mass loss due to future changes in ice sheet dynamics or surface mass balance. Importantly, > 75% of this value is from the long-term, diffusive response of the ice sheet, suggesting that the majority of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics during the past decade is yet to come. Assuming similar and recurring forcing in future decades and a self-similar ice dynamical response, we estimate an upper bound of 45 mm of sea-level rise from Greenland dynamics by 2100. These estimates are constrained by recent observations of dynamic mass loss in Greenland and by realistic model behavior that accounts for both the long-term cumulative mass loss and its decay following episodic boundary forcing.

Large-Scale Surface Mass Balance of Ice Sheets from a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model

The surface mass balance for Greenland and Antarctica has been calculated using model data from an AMIP-type experiment for the period 1979–2001 using the ECHAM5 spectral transform model at different triangular truncations. There is a significant reduction in the calculated ablation for the highest model resolution, T319 with an equivalent grid distance of ca 40 km. As a consequence the T319 model has a positive surface mass balance for both ice sheets during the period. For Greenland, the models at lower resolution, T106 and T63, on the other hand, have a much stronger ablation leading to a negative surface mass balance. Calculations have also been undertaken for a climate change experiment using the IPCC scenario A1B, with a T213 resolution (corresponding to a grid distance of some 60 km) and comparing two 30-year periods from the end of the twentieth century and the end of the twenty-first century, respectively. For Greenland there is change of 495 km3/year, going from a positive to a negative surface mass balance corresponding to a sea level rise of 1.4 mm/year. For Antarctica there is an increase in the positive surface mass balance of 285 km3/year corresponding to a sea level fall by 0.8 mm/year. The surface mass balance changes of the two ice sheets lead to a sea level rise of 7 cm at the end of this century compared to end of the twentieth century. Other possible mass losses such as due to changes in the calving of icebergs are not considered. It appears that such changes must increase significantly, and several times more than the surface mass balance changes, if the ice sheets are to make a major contribution to sea level rise this century. The model calculations indicate large inter-annual variations in all relevant parameters making it impossible to identify robust trends from the examined periods at the end of the twentieth century. The calculated inter-annual variations are similar in magnitude to observations. The 30-year trend in SMB at the end of the twenty-first century is significant. The increase in precipitation on the ice sheets follows closely the Clausius-Clapeyron relation and is the main reason for the increase in the surface mass balance of Antarctica. On Greenland precipitation in the form of snow is gradually starting to decrease and cannot compensate for the increase in ablation. Another factor is the proportionally higher temperature increase on Greenland leading to a larger ablation. It follows that a modest increase in temperature will not be sufficient to compensate for the increase in accumulation, but this will change when temperature increases go beyond any critical limit. Calculations show that such a limit for Greenland might well be passed during this century. For Antarctica this will take much longer and probably well into following centuries.

Precipitation Changes in High Southern Latitudes from Global Reanalyses: A Cautionary Tale

The temporal consistency of the moisture fields (precipitation, evaporation and total precipitable water) from five global reanalyses is examined over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean during 1989–2009. This concern is important given that (1) global reanalyses are known to be prone to inhomogeneities and artificial trends caused by changes in the observing system, and (2) the period of study has seen a dramatic increase in the volume of satellite observations available for data assimilation. In particular, the study aims to determine whether the recent reanalyses are suitable for investigating changes in Antarctic surface mass balance. The datasets investigated consist of NCEP-2, JRA-25, ERA-Interim, MERRA and CFSR. Strong evidence of spurious changes is found in NCEP-2, JRA-25, MERRA and CFSR, although the magnitude, spatial patterns and timing of these artifacts vary between the reanalyses. MERRA exhibits a jump in Antarctic precipitation-minus-evaporation (P–E) and in Southern Ocean precipitation in the late 1990s. This jump is related to the introduction of sounding radiances from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). The impact of AMSU is also discernible, albeit less pronounced, in CFSR data. It is shown that ERA-Interim likely provides the most realistic depiction of the interannual variability and overall change in Antarctic P–E since 1989. We conclude that the presence of spurious changes is not a solved problem in recent global reanalyses. Caution should continue to be exercised when using these datasets for trend analyses in general, particularly in high southern latitudes.

The influence of decadal- to millennial-scale ice mass changes on present-day vertical land motion in Greenland: Implications for the interpretation of GPS observations

[1] We show predictions of present-day vertical land motion in Greenland using a recently developed glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) model, calibrated using both relative sea level (RSL) observations and geomorphological constraints on ice extent. Predictions from our GIA model are in agreement with the relatively small number of GPS measurements of absolute vertical motion from south and southwest Greenland. This suggests that our model of ice sheet evolution over the Holocene period is reasonably accurate. The uplift predictions are highly sensitive to variations of upper mantle viscosity. Thus, depending on the Earth model adopted, different periods of ice loading change dominate the present-day response in particular regions of Greenland. We also consider the possible influence of more recent changes in the ice sheet by applying a second ice model; specifically, a surface mass balance (SMB) model, which covers the period 1866 to 2005. Predictions from this model suggest that decadal-scale SMB changes over the past ∼140 years play only a small role in determining the present-day viscous response (at the sub-mm/yr level in most locations for a range of Earth model parameters). High rates of peripheral thinning from 1995 to 2005 predicted using the SMB model produce large elastic uplift rates (∼6 mm/yr) in west and southwest Greenland. This suggests that in some areas close to the ice margin, modern surface mass balance changes have a dominant control on present-day vertical land motion.

Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass-Balance Modeling in a 131-Yr Perspective, 1950–2080

Abstract Fluctuations in the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. A state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario A1B modeled by the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM) using boundary conditions from the ECHAM5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In situ meteorological station [Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI)] observations from inside and outside the GrIS were used to validate and correct RCM output data before they were used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model’s robustness. The authors simulated an ∼90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 × 106 km2) from 1950 to 2080 and a melt index (above 2000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 × 106 km2 × days). The greatest difference in melt extent occurred in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days were seen in the eastern part of the GrIS (∼50%–70%) and were lowest in the west (∼20%–30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, leads to an enhanced average loss of 331 km3 from 1950 to 2080 and an average SMB level of −99 km3 for the period 2070–80. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded a eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 ± 0.1 (1950–59) to 1.9 ± 0.1 mm (2070–80) sea level equivalent (SLE) yr−1. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160-mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.

The Response of Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers to Climate

Surface height and mass balance changes of Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers within Juneau Icefield, Alaska, are examined to determine the relationship between these parameters and climatic forcing. Both Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers are located in a maritime climate, but they behave very differently. Taku Glacier, a former tidewater glacier, is ∼70 times larger than Lemon Creek Glacier, and its dynamics are largely a result of the post-tidewater glacier cycle which causes insensitivity to climate change during advance phases. Taku Glacier is advancing at present but its surface height, mass balance, and rate of advance have decreased since 1988. Lemon Creek Glacier, a small alpine glacier, is retreating and has maintained a negative mass balance since 1953. Mass balance records from both Taku and Lemon Creek Glaciers correlate well with temperature and show little correlation with precipitation. The mass balance of these glaciers also correlates with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). However, the Lemon Creek Glacier mass balance record shows a stronger correlation with the PDO than that of Taku Glacier. Taku Glacier shows a longer delay in response to warming in Southeast Alaska likely due to post-tidewater glacier dynamics, its large accumulation area ratio (AAR), and its size.

Snow and ice facies variability and ice layer formation on Canadian Arctic ice caps, 1999–2005

Time series of enhanced resolution data from the SeaWinds scatterometer aboard QuikScat were used to map the distribution of snow and ice surface facies and ice layer formation in the percolation zone on ice caps in the Queen Elizabeth Islands during the period 1999–2005. Iterative Self‐Organizing Data Analysis classification of the mean postfreeze‐up biweekly average σ0 signal for the 7‐year period resulted in the delineation of four snow and ice surface facies (interpreted as the percolation, saturation, superimposed ice, and glacier ice zones). Analysis with National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis reveals that changes in geopotential height in the troposphere (700, 500, and 300 hPa) and air temperature (700 hPa level) are positively (negatively) correlated with area changes in the glacier ice (percolation and saturation) zones and changes in facies boundary elevation. The change in biweekly‐averaged backscatter following the freeze‐up periods between successive autumns was used to map changes in the distribution of ice layers formed by meltwater percolation and refreezing in the snowpack within the percolation zone. Strongly positive air temperature anomalies at the 700 hPa level in 2001 and 2005 are consistent with extensive ice layer formation in the percolation zones of all ice caps. Such large interannual changes in ice layer formation are likely associated with large changes to the density profile of the snowpack and may be associated with surface elevation changes that are unrelated to changes in surface mass balance.

Surface mass-balance changes of the Greenland ice sheetc since 1866

AbstractMass loss from the Greenland ice sheet over the past decade has caused the impression that the ice sheet has been behaving anomalously to the warming of the 1990s. We have reconstructed the recent (1866–2005) surface mass-balance (SMB) history of the Greenland ice sheet on a 5 × 5 km grid using a runoff-retention model based on the positive degree-day method. The model is forced with new datasets of temperature and precipitation patterns dating back to 1866.We use an innovative method to account for the influence of year-on-year surface elevation changes on SMB estimates and have found this effect to be minor. All SMB estimates are made relative to the 1961–90 average SMB and we compare annual SMB estimates from the period 1995–2005 to a similar period in the past (1923–33) where SMB was comparable, and conclude that the present-day changes are not exceptional within the last 140 years. Peripheral thinning has dominated the SMB response during the past decade, as in 1923–33, but we also show that thinning was not restricted to the margins during this earlier period.