Surface Heat Flux Changes Research Articles

Why Does a Colder (Warmer) Winter Tend to Be Followed by a Warmer (Cooler) Summer over Northeast Eurasia?

AbstractThis study reveals a pronounced out-of-phase relationship between surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over northeast Eurasia in boreal winter and the following summer during 1980–2017. A colder (warmer) winter over northeast Eurasia tends to be followed by a warmer (cooler) summer of next year. The processes for the out-of-phase relation of winter and summer SAT involve the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic Ocean, and a Eurasian anomalous atmospheric circulation pattern induced by the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. Winter negative AO/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like atmospheric circulation anomalies lead to continental cooling over Eurasia via anomalous advection and a tripolar SST anomaly pattern in the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic SST anomaly pattern switches to a dipolar pattern in the following summer via air–sea interaction processes and associated surface heat flux changes. The summer North Atlantic dipolar SST anomaly pattern induces a downstream atmospheric wave train, including large-scale positive geopotential height anomalies over northeast Eurasia, which contributes to positive SAT anomalies there via enhancement of downward surface shortwave radiation and anomalous advection. Barotropic model experiments verify the role of the summer North Atlantic SST anomalies in triggering the atmospheric wave train over Eurasia. Through the above processes, a colder winter is followed by a warmer summer over northeast Eurasia. The above processes apply to the years when warmer winters are followed by cooler summers except for opposite signs of SAT, atmospheric circulation, and SST anomalies.

Contributions of Indonesian Throughflow to eastern Indian Ocean surface variability during ENSO events

AbstractThe contribution of ocean transport to the transition between the Indian Ocean Dipole mode (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin mode (IOB) during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years is investigated using reanalysis products. Composite analysis suggests that the IOD–IOB transition is robust among ENSO years, with variations in the eastern Indian Ocean mixed layer playing a key role. Although this transition has typically been attributed to changes in surface heat flux in the eastern Indian Ocean, our results suggest that approximately one third of the mixed layer temperature tendency during the transition results from anomalous ocean heat transport. Enhanced surface heat flux anomalies and oceanic advection starting from October during El Niño developing years combine to warm the eastern Indian Ocean, promoting the decay of the positive IOD cold tongue and the emergence of a positive IOB pattern. The contribution of ocean advection to the IOD—IOB transition is dominated by the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), which accounts for around 70–80% of total ocean advection contribution in the southeastern Indian Ocean (20–25% of the total warming tendency). These variations in ITF heat transport arise in large part from local wind anomalies. Southeasterly wind anomalies along the northeastern edge of an anomalous Indian Ocean anticyclone associated with El Niño intensify surface‐layer heat transport into the Indian Ocean in the ITF outflow region. This change in surface transport contrasts with total ITF transport anomalies during El Niño years, as total transport is dominated by negative subsurface transport anomalies.

Atmospheric Circulation Response to Short-Term Arctic Warming in an Idealized Model

Abstract Recent Arctic sea ice loss in fall has been posited to drive midlatitude circulation changes into winter and even spring. Past work has shown that sea ice loss can indeed trigger a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which can lead to delayed surface weather changes. But the mechanisms of such changes and their relevant time scales have remained unclear. This study uses large ensembles of idealized GCM simulations to identify how and over what time scales the atmospheric circulation responds to short-term surface heat flux changes in high latitudes. The ensemble-mean response of the atmospheric circulation is approximately linear in the amplitude of the surface forcing. It is also insensitive to whether the forcing is zonally asymmetric or symmetric, that is, whether stationary waves are generated or not. The circulation response can be decomposed into a rapid thermal response and a slower dynamic adjustment. The adjustment arises through weakening of vertical wave activity fluxes from the troposphere into the stratosphere in response to polar warming, a mechanism that differs from sudden stratospheric warmings yet still results in a weakened stratospheric circulation. The stratospheric response is delayed and persists for about 2 months because the thermal response of the stratosphere is slow compared with that of the troposphere. The delayed stratospheric response feeds back onto the troposphere, but the tropospheric effects are weak compared with natural variability. The general pathway for the delayed response appears to be relatively independent of the atmospheric background state at the time of the anomalous surface forcing.

Impacts of Summer North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the East Asian Winter Monsoon Variability

Abstract The present study investigates the impacts of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) variability. It is found that the northern component of the EAWM variability is associated with a dipole pattern of preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies during 1979–2016. The processes linking preceding summer North Atlantic SST to EAWM include the North Atlantic air–sea interactions and atmospheric wave train triggered by the North Atlantic SST anomalies. Atmospheric wind anomalies in the preceding spring–summer result in the formation of a dipole SST anomaly pattern through surface heat flux changes. In turn, the induced SST anomalies provide a feedback on the atmosphere, modifying the location and intensity of anomalous winds over the North Atlantic. The associated surface heat flux anomalies switch the North Atlantic SST anomaly distribution from a dipole pattern in summer to a tripole pattern in the following winter. The North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies excite an atmospheric wave train extending from the North Atlantic through Eurasia to East Asia in winter, resulting in anomalous EAWM. However, the relationship of the northern component of EAWM to preceding summer North Atlantic SST anomalies is weak before the late 1970s. During 1956–76, due to weak air–sea interaction over the North Atlantic, no obvious tripole SST anomaly pattern is established in winter. The atmospheric wave train in winter is located at higher latitudes, leading to a weak connection between the northern component of EAWM and the preceding summer North Atlantic dipole SST anomaly pattern.

Aerosol versus Greenhouse Gas Effects on Tropical Cyclone Potential Intensity and the Hydrologic Cycle

AbstractAerosol cooling reduces tropical cyclone (TC) potential intensity (PI) more strongly, by about a factor of 2 per degree of sea surface temperature change, than greenhouse gas warming increases it. This study analyzes single-forcing and historical experiments from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, aiming to understand the physical mechanisms behind this difference. Calculations are done for the tropical oceans of each hemisphere during the relevant TC seasons, emphasizing multimodel means. PI theory is used to interpret the difference in the PI response to aerosol and greenhouse gas forcings in terms of three factors. The net surface turbulent heat flux (sum of the latent and sensible heat fluxes) explains half of the difference, thermodynamic efficiency explains at most a small fraction, and surface wind speed does not explain the remainder, perhaps because of the use of monthly mean data. Changes in turbulent surface heat fluxes are interpreted as responses to surface radiative flux changes in the context of the energy balance of the ocean mixed layer. Radiative kernels are used to estimate what fractions of the surface radiative flux changes are feedbacks due to temperature and water vapor changes. The greater effect of aerosol forcing occurs because shortwave forcing has a greater direct, temperature-independent component at the surface than does longwave forcing, for a forcing amplitude that provokes the same SST change. This conclusion recalls prior work on the response of precipitation to radiative forcing, and the similarities and differences between precipitation and potential intensity in this regard are discussed.

The sensitivity of climatological SST to slab ocean model thickness

A pronounced tropical cooling (> 4 °C) and high-latitude warming in the annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology is found in a numerical experiment conducted with a coupled model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in which the time-independent SOM thickness is reduced by a factor of two. The results suggest that biases in the ocean mixed layer depth could be contributing to SST biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. These changes in annual mean SST are noteworthy since in simple climate models the SOM thickness controls the amplitude and phase of the SST annual cycle, but it plays no role in determining the annual mean SST. Results from the numerical experiment indicate that halving of the SOM thickness not only changes annual cycle amplitude but results in asymmetrical changes in the annual cycle that rectify onto annual mean SST. The changed SOM thickness is found to primarily affect the surface net solar flux and latent heat flux components. However, due to the SOM equilibrium energy budget constraint, the annual mean net surface heat flux does not change, and the solar and latent heat fluxes changes compensate for each other. There is no such constraint on the annual cycle of heat fluxes, where the solar and latent components act to reinforce each other over much of the ocean, with the notable exception of the tropic Pacific warm pool region. We investigate the influence of the amplitude of the SST annual cycle on the annual mean SST through the net surface heat flux and its components using a two-step approach. First, two prescribed SST AGCM simulations are carried out, both with the annual mean SST of the full-thickness SOM coupled model simulation: one forced with the SST annual cycle of the full-thickness SOM coupled simulation, and the other forced with the SST annual cycle of the half-thickness SOM coupled simulation. Second, the impacts of these changes in the annual cycle on the annual mean SST are assessed in a full-thickness AGCM-SOM coupled simulation forced by the net, annual-mean, surface heat flux changes produced by the SST annual cycle changes in the first step. It is found that these net surface heat flux changes can largely reproduce the annual mean SST sensitivity to SOM thickness found in the coupled SOM thickness halving experiment. The effects on the annual mean heat flux components and annual mean SST from changes in the SOM thickness in an idealized limiting case are also considered.

A coupled ocean-atmosphere downscaled climate projection for the peninsular Florida region

Abstract A downscaled projection over the Peninsular Florida (PF) region is conducted with a Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 10 km grid spacing that incorporates interactive coupling between the atmosphere and ocean components of the climate system. This is first such application of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model for climate projection over the PF region. The RCM is shown to display reasonable fidelity in simulating the mean current climate and exhibits higher variability both in the ocean and in the atmosphere than the large-scale global model (Community Climate System Model version 4 [CCSM4]), which is used to drive the RCM. There are several features of the regional climate that RCM displays as an improvement over CCSM4: upper ocean thermal stratification, surface eddy kinetic energy of the ocean, volume flux through the Yucatan Channel, and terrestrial rainfall over PF. The projected mean hydroclimatic change over the period 2041–2060 relative to 1986–2005 over PF shows significant difference between RCM and CCSM4, with the RCM becoming significantly drier and CCSM4 moderately wetter. Furthermore, over the ocean surface, especially over the West Florida Shelf (WFS), RCM displays a wetter and a warmer surface climate compared to the CCSM4 simulation. Our analysis of the model output indicates that improved resolution of ocean bathymetry in the RCM plays a significant role in the response of the projected changes in surface heat flux, clouds, upper ocean circulations and upper ocean stratification, which manifests with some of the largest differences from the CCSM4 projections, especially over the shallower parts of the ocean around PF. This contrast is most apparent between WFS and PF in the RCM simulation, which suggests that a future warm climate would likely produce more rain over WFS at the expense of corresponding reduction over PF, contrary to the absence of any such gradient in the CCSM4 simulation. Furthermore, in the RCM simulation, the warming of the sub-surface ocean in the future climate is owed to the combined influence of excess atmospheric heat flux directed towards the ocean from the atmosphere and the advective heat flux convergence with the relative slowing of the Loop Current in the future climate. The study demonstrates that such RCMs with coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions are necessary to downscale the global climate models to project the surface hydro-climate over regions like PF that have mesoscale features in the ocean, which can influence the terrestrial climate.

Seasonal variation of precipitation over the Indochina Peninsula and its impact on the South China Sea spring warming

This study documents the seasonal variation of precipitation over the whole Indochina Peninsula (ICP) and associated changes in atmospheric winds and surface heat fluxes and investigates the impact of the ICP precipitation‐related heating and circulation on spring sea surface warming in the South China Sea (SCS). Climatologically, most of the ICP experiences the rainy season from May to October and the period from November to April is the dry season. The summer wet‐winter dry pattern dominates the seasonal rainfall variation in most regions and the maximum rainfall along the west coast occurs during June through August in association with monsoon westerly winds. A pronounced semi‐annual rainfall variation is observed along central Vietnam with a primary peak in October and a secondary peak in May, which is related to northeasterly and southwesterly winds, respectively. Surface heat fluxes change drastically over the ICP in March–April and play an important role in increasing the thermal contrast with the neighbouring waters and heating the atmospheric column, which causes upward motion and precipitation over the ICP. The induced compensatory downward motion over the northern SCS leads to an increase in downward shortwave radiation and a decrease in surface wind speed and turbulent heat fluxes, which contributes to the SCS warming before the summer monsoon onset.

Increasing Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport in the Latest Generation Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere Models: The Role of Air‐Sea Interaction

AbstractRecent increases in resolution of coupled ocean‐atmosphere models have the potential to improve the representation of poleward heat transport within the climate system. Here we examine the interplay between model resolution‐dependent changes in Atlantic Ocean heat transport (AOHT) and surface heat fluxes. The different roles of changes in atmospheric and ocean resolution are isolated using three different climate models (The Centro Euro‐Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici Climate Model 2, Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model 3 – Global Coupled configuration 2, and European Community Earth‐System Model 3.1) and comparing runs in which (a) only the ocean resolution changes, (b) only the atmosphere resolution changes, and (c) both change. Enhancing ocean resolution from eddy parameterized to eddy permitting increases the AOHT throughout the basin, values changing from 1.0 to 1.2 PW at 26°N, bringing the AOHT into the range of estimates from the RAPID observing array. This increase in AOHT is associated with higher North Atlantic sea surface temperatures and increased ocean heat loss to the atmosphere. Increasing the atmospheric resolution alone has little impact on the AOHT due to regionally compensating changes in the components of the net heat flux. Finally, in a fourth experiment the impact of resolution changes in both components and the transition to an eddy‐resolving ocean is assessed. This additional resolution increase is accompanied by a further change in the AOHT and improves agreement with observations in the tropics but not the subpolar regions. However, unlike with the increase to the eddy‐permitting ocean, when the greatest AOHT change occurs in the subtropics and subpolar region, the most significant increase now occurs in the tropics.

The leading interannual variability modes of winter surface air temperature over Southeast Asia

The present study analyzes the leading interannual variability modes of Southeast Asian surface air temperature (SAT) during boreal winter. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF1) mode displays same-sign SAT anomalies over Southeast Asia, with a center around the north Indo-China Peninsula and south China. The second EOF (EOF2) shows a dipole SAT anomaly pattern between the Indo-China Peninsula and south China. Surface heat flux change may not be able to explain SAT variation related to the EOF1, but explain partly the SAT change associated with the EOF2. Atmospheric anomalies play a crucial role in the SAT variations via wind-induced temperature advection. Specifically, for the EOF1, marked northerly anomalies appear over the Southeast Asia, which bring colder air from higher latitude and contribute to negative SAT anomalies. Change in the intensity of Arctic Oscillation, Siberian High and La Nina like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific play a key role in forming the northerly anomalies related to the EOF1. For the EOF2, at the lower troposphere, a pair of anomalous cyclones appears over the tropical north and south Indian Ocean, together with southwesterly wind anomalies extending from the Indian Ocean to the Indo-China Peninsula, which favor positive SAT anomalies there. Formation of the twin cyclones is likely to be a Gill type Rossby wave response of the tropical Indian Ocean SST warming. At the upper troposphere, two wave trains, one originated from the Arctic region and another from the Mediterranean Sea, contribute collectively to the atmospheric circulation anomalies over Southeast Asia related to the EOF2.

Contrasting spatial structures of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation between observations and slab ocean model simulations

The spatial structure of Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is analyzed and compared between the observations and simulations from slab ocean models (SOMs) and fully coupled models. The observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern of AMO is characterized by a basin-wide monopole structure, and there is a significantly high degree of spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across the entire North Atlantic basin. The observed SST anomalies share a common decadal-scale signal, corresponding to the basin-wide average (i. e., the AMO). In contrast, the simulated AMO in SOMs (AMOs) exhibits a tripole-like structure, with the mid-latitude North Atlantic SST showing an inverse relationship with other parts of the basin, and the SOMs fail to reproduce the observed strong spatial coherence of decadal SST variations associated with the AMO. The observed spatial coherence of AMO SST anomalies is identified as a key feature that can be used to distinguish the AMO mechanism. The tripole-like SST pattern of AMOs in SOMs can be largely explained by the atmosphere-forced thermodynamics mechanism due to the surface heat flux changes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The thermodynamic forcing of AMOs by the NAO gives rise to a simultaneous inverse NAO–AMOs relationship at both interannual and decadal timescales and a seasonal phase locking of the AMOs variability to the cold season. However, the NAO-forced thermodynamics mechanism cannot explain the observed NAO–AMO relationship and the seasonal phase locking of observed AMO variability to the warm season. At decadal timescales, a strong lagged relationship between NAO and AMO is observed, with the NAO leading by up to two decades, while the simultaneous correlation of NAO with AMO is weak. This lagged relationship and the spatial coherence of AMO can be well understood from the view point of ocean dynamics. A time-integrated NAO index, which reflects the variations in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and northward ocean heat transport caused by the accumulated effect of NAO forcing, reasonably well captures the observed multidecadal fluctuations in the AMO. Further analysis using the fully coupled model simulations provides direct modeling evidence that the observed spatial coherence of decadal SST variations across North Atlantic basin can be reproduced only by including the AMOC-related ocean dynamics, and the AMOC acts as a common forcing signal that results in a spatially coherent variation of North Atlantic SST.

黄土高原植被恢复引发区域气温下降

PDF HTML阅读 XML下载 导出引用 引用提醒 黄土高原植被恢复引发区域气温下降 DOI: 10.5846/stxb201711272118 作者: 作者单位: 中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所 作者简介: 通讯作者: 中图分类号: 基金项目: 国家重点研发计划（2016YFC0501707）；国家自然科学基金项目（41771558）；科技基础性工作专项（2014FY210120）；中国科学院国际合作局对外合作重点项目（16146KYSB20150001）；欧盟委员会Horizon2020项目（635750） Cooling effect induced by vegetation restoration on the Loess Plateau Author: Affiliation: Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Science & Ministry of Water Resources,Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Chinese Academy of Science DdDd Ministry of Water Resources,, Fund Project: 摘要 | 图/表 | 访问统计 | 参考文献 | 相似文献 | 引证文献 | 资源附件 | 文章评论 摘要:黄土高原退耕还林（草）等生态恢复工程促进了地表植被覆盖增加，进而通过影响地表-大气之间热量交换影响区域气候过程。基于黄土高原1998-2000年和2008-2010年SPOT卫星反演的植被覆盖资料、54个地面气象站气温资料及EIN-Interim地表热通量数据，采用空间分析交叉验证及地表热量平衡分析的方法，从站点尺度探讨了退耕还林（草）工程初期和10年后黄土高原植被变化与气温和地表热通量变化之间的关系。研究表明，退耕还林（草）工程开展10年后，黄土高原气温最小值、最大值与平均值均有下降，植被覆盖增加与气温变量降低在空间上呈正相关。同时，植被覆盖增加与潜热通量增加、感热通量与大气下行长波辐射下降在空间上也呈正相关关系。这些结果表明，植被恢复可通过增加地表蒸散发作用对区域气候产生降温效应，会减缓气温升高对黄土高原生态系统的影响。 Abstract:A large-scale re-vegetation with regional ecological engineering on the Loess Plateau, including the Grain for Green Project (GGP), has already greatly impacted the heating and energy flux between the land and atmosphere, which induces regional climate. We used two methods, the cross-checking of spatial change and surface heat balance analysis to detect the relationships among the vegetation change, temperature change, and surface heat flux change during the GGP at the station scale over the Loess Plateau. The 10 days normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from SPOT data was used to indicate the vegetation. The monthly temperature data from 54 weather stations within or nearby the Loess Plateau were used to describe the temperature change. The EIN-Interim surface heat fluxes were analyzed to determine the surface heat condition. Two stages, the initial stage (1998-2000, Stage I) of GGP and 10 years after (2008-2010, Stage Ⅱ) were compared. The minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures were lower in Stage Ⅱ, and the increase of vegetation was spatially positively correlated to the decrease in all temperature variables. Meanwhile, the increase in vegetation was spatially positively correlated to the increase in latent heat flux, and the decrease of sensible heat flux and the atmospheric downward longwave heat flux. These results indicated that vegetation restoration may lower the temperatures through an increase in surface evapotranspiration, and thereby mitigate the climate warming effect on the ecological system of the Loess Plateau. 参考文献 相似文献 引证文献

Effects of mantle rheologies on viscous heating induced by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment

It has been argued that viscous dissipation from mantle flow in response to surface loading during glacial cycles can result in short-term heating and thus trigger transient volcanism or changes in mantle properties, which may in turn affect mantle dynamics. Furthermore, heating near the Earth's surface can also affect the stability of ice sheets. We have studied the magnitude and spatial-temporal distribution of viscous heating induced in the mantle by the realistic ice model ICE-6G and gravitationally consistent ocean loads. Three types of mantle rheologies, including linear, non-linear and composite rheologies are considered to see if non-linear creep can induce larger viscous heating than linear rheology. We used the Coupled-Laplace-Finite-Element model of Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) to compute the strain, stress and shear heating during a glacial cycle. We also investigated the upper bound of temperature change and surface heat flux change due to viscous heating. We found that maximum viscous heating occurs near the end of deglaciation near the edge of the ice sheet with amplitude as high as 120 times larger than that of the chondritic radioactive heating. The maximum heat flux due to viscous heating can reach 30 mW m -2 , but the area with large heat flux is small and the timescale of heating is short. As a result, the upper bound of temperature change due to viscous heating is small. Even if 30 glacial cycles are included, the largest temperature change can be of the order of 0.3 °C. Thus, viscous heating induced by GIA cannot induce volcanism and cannot significantly affect mantle material properties, mantle dynamics nor ice-sheet stability. The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

On the contrasting decadal changes of diurnal surface temperature range between the Tibetan Plateau and southeastern China during the 1980s–2000s

The diurnal surface temperature range (DTR) has become significantly smaller over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) but larger in southeastern China, despite the daily mean surface temperature having increased steadily in both areas during recent decades. Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data covering 1979–2012, this study shows that the weakened DTR over TP is caused by stronger warming of daily minimum surface temperature (Tmin) and a weak cooling of the daily maximum surface temperature (Tmax); meanwhile, the enhanced DTR over southeastern China is mainly associated with a relatively stronger/weaker warming of Tmax/Tmin. A further quantitative analysis of DTR changes through a process-based decomposition method—the Coupled Surface–Atmosphere Climate Feedback Response Analysis Method (CFRAM)—indicates that changes in radiative processes are mainly responsible for the decreased DTR over the TP. In particular, the increased low-level cloud cover tends to induce the radiative cooling/warming during daytime/nighttime, and the increased water vapor helps to decrease the DTR through the stronger radiative warming during nighttime than daytime. Contributions from the changes in all radiative processes (over −2°C) are compensated for by those from the stronger decreased surface sensible heat flux during daytime than during nighttime (approximately 2.5°C), but are co-contributed by the changes in atmospheric dynamics (approximately −0.4°C) and the stronger increased latent heat flux during daytime (approximately −0.8°C). In contrast, the increased DTR over southeastern China is mainly contributed by the changes in cloud, water vapor and atmospheric dynamics. The changes in surface heat fluxes have resulted in a decrease in DTR over southeastern China.

Sea ice led to poleward-shifted winds at the Last Glacial Maximum: the influence of state dependency on CMIP5 and PMIP3 models

Abstract. Latitudinal shifts in the Southern Ocean westerly wind jet could drive changes in the glacial to interglacial ocean CO2 inventory. However, whilst CMIP5 model results feature consistent future-warming jet shifts, there is considerable disagreement in deglacial-warming jet shifts. We find here that the dependence of pre-industrial (PI) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) jet shifts on PI jet position, or state dependency, explains less of the shifts in jet simulated by the models for the LGM compared with future-warming scenarios. State dependence is also weaker for intensity changes, compared to latitudinal shifts in the jet. Winter sea ice was considerably more extensive during the LGM. Changes in surface heat fluxes, due to this sea ice change, probably had a large impact on the jet. Models that both simulate realistically large expansions in sea ice and feature PI jets which are south of 50° S show an increase in wind speed around 55° S and can show a poleward shift in the jet between the PI and the LGM. However, models with the PI jet positioned equatorwards of around 47° S do not show this response: the sea ice edge is too far from the jet for it to respond. In models with accurately positioned PI jets, a +1° difference in the latitude of the sea ice edge tends to be associated with a −0.85° shift in the 850 hPa jet. However, it seems that around 5° of expansion of LGM sea ice is necessary to hold the jet in its PI position. Since the Gersonde et al. (2005) data support an expansion of more than 5°, this result suggests that a slight poleward shift and intensification was the most likely jet change between the PI and the LGM. Without the effect of sea ice, models simulate poleward-shifted westerlies in warming climates and equatorward-shifted westerlies in colder climates. However, the feedback of sea ice counters and reverses the equatorward trend in cooler climates so that the LGM winds were more likely to have also been shifted slightly poleward.

Feedback of 10–20-day intraseasonal oscillations on seasonal mean SST in the tropical Western North Pacific during boreal spring through fall

The present study documents the factors for year-to-year changes in the intensity of 10–20-day intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) and investigates the feedback of the 10–20-day ISO intensity on seasonal mean sea surface temperature (SST) change in the tropical western North Pacific during boreal spring through fall. An analysis of local correlation reveals a significant negative correlation of the 10–20-day ISO intensity and the seasonal mean SST tendency in the tropical western North Pacific during spring, summer, and fall, suggesting a plausible feedback of the ISO intensity on seasonal mean SST anomaly. The 10–20-day ISO intensity change over the tropical western North Pacific is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through modulation of vertical shear of zonal winds, lower-level moisture, and upward motion. Due to the phase dependence of location of these ENSO-induced background field changes, the ISO intensity is subject to ENSO influence in different regions during the three seasons. The feedback of the 10–20-day ISO intensity on local seasonal mean SST change in the tropical western North Pacific is demonstrated by separating latent heat flux anomalies into components on different time scales. The ISO-induced latent heat flux anomalies may accumulate in a season and overcome interannual anomalies due to seasonal mean changes. Thus, the ISO-induced surface heat flux change may play an important role in the seasonal mean SST anomaly in the tropical western North Pacific.

Recent land cover changes and sensitivity of the model simulations to various land cover datasets for China

Reliable land cover data are important for improving numerical simulation by regional climate model, because the land surface properties directly affect climate simulation by partitioning of energy, water and momentum fluxes and by determining temperature and moisture at the interface between the land surface and atmosphere. China has experienced significant land cover change in recent decades and accurate representation of these changes is, hence, essential. In this study, we used a climate model to examine the changes experienced in the regional climate because of the different land cover data in recent decades. Three sets of experiments are performed using the same settings, except for the land use/cover (LC) data for the years 1990, 2000, 2009, and the model default LC data. Three warm season periods are selected, which represented a wet (1998), normal (2000) and a dry year (2011) for China in each set of experiment. The results show that all three sets of land cover experiments simulate a warm bias relative to the control with default LC data for near-surface temperature in summertime in most parts of China. It is especially noticeable in the southwest China and south of the Yangtze River, where significant changes of LC occurred. Deforestation in southwest China and to the south of Yangtze River in the experiment cases may have contributed to the negative precipitation bias relative to the control cases. Large LC changes in northwestern Tibetan Plateau for 2000 and 2009 datasets are also associated with changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and heat fluxes. Wind anomalies and energy budget changes are consistent with the precipitation and temperature changes.

Influences of surface air temperature and atmospheric circulation on winter snow cover variability over Europe

ABSTRACTThe relationships between snow cover (SC) variability in Europe, the local surface air temperature (SAT), and the associated atmospheric circulation changes are studied. This investigation indicates that the European winter SC is closely correlated with SAT. Higher (lower) SC is coincident with strong and large‐scale surface cooling (warming). Similar but weaker temperature signals are observed in the middle and upper troposphere. Periods of enhanced (reduced) SC are characterized by surface heat loss (gain), partly due to dampened (enhanced) sensible heat fluxes towards the ground surface, which is in turn related to the lower (higher) SAT. Higher (lower) SC is also accompanied by reduced (enhanced) downward longwave irradiance. Consistent with previous studies, our analysis demonstrates that variations in the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic/European sector, including those associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, are accompanied by changes in horizontal heat advection and SC over Europe. The circulation changes modulate the water vapour transport towards the European continent, and thereby influence the available water vapour there and lead to fluctuations in downward longwave irradiance and cloud cover. The wind anomalies associated with these variations also drive surface heat flux changes in the North Atlantic, which in turn lead to well‐defined sea surface temperature (SST) tendencies. The above characteristic patterns exhibit notable variability in different calendar months of the winter season. The monthly averaged circulation anomalies are evidently related to changes in the tracks of atmospheric disturbances with synoptic time scales. Overall, there is no strong evidence supporting a principal role for the North Atlantic SST or the El Niño Southern Oscillation in driving inter‐annual SC variability over Europe.

OBSERVAÇÕES E MODELAGEM DA CAMADA LIMITE INTERNA NO ENTORNO DE EXTENSOS SISTEMAS AQUÁTICOS

The determination of the spatial extent of the internal boundary layer (IBL) across a step change in surface roughness and surface heat flux and temperature is an important environmental aspect to the operation of industries, fossil-fuel, nuclear and wind power plants. The IBL of the land-water transition zone, such as in coastal regions, lakes and reservoirs, is strongly influenced by surface properties, as the roughness and stability change considerably within this zone. An observational study was conducted to measure meteorological properties near a large tropical reservoir and investigate the IBL at the water-land transition. A 42 m height meteorological mast was instrumented with sonic wind anemometers, air temperature and relative humidity sensors at 3, 10, 20 and 40 m height. Comparisons of the log profile model with the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOS) and the observed wind profiles, shown that the MOS estimated the wind profile more accurately, especially if winds were from water to land.

Response of the East Asian Winter Monsoon to Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract In this study, a 600-yr integration performed with the Bergen Climate Model (BCM), version 2.0, was used to investigate the impact of strong tropical volcanic eruptions (SVEs) on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). It is found that SVEs have an important influence on the East Asian winter climate. The volcanic forcing can cause changes in surface heat fluxes and tropospheric circulation, particularly over the tropics and high-latitude regions. As a result, Arctic Oscillation enters into its positive phase in the first two winters after SVEs. The associated circulation weakens the Siberian high and reduces the cold air transport to East Asia, which is not conducive to the enhancement of the EAWM during this period. At the same time, the North Pacific Ocean gradually cools and shapes La Niña–like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the third winter after SVEs. The Walker circulation is strengthened over the Pacific, and two anomalous lower-tropospheric cyclones are located over the South China Sea and southeast of Japan, respectively. Therefore, related northeasterly wind anomalies appear along the East Asian coast, indicating a strengthened EAWM during this period. Meanwhile, the enhanced Siberian high and East Asian trough further contribute to the enhancement of EAWM in the third winter. It is therefore concluded that the SVEs-induced climate changes over the tropical Pacific and north polar regions play an important role in regulating the EAWM in the posteruption winters.