Changes In Stratification Research Articles

Natural variability masks climate change sea surface temperature signals: a comparison between the Baltic Sea, North Sea and North Atlantic Ocean

Climate variability in marine environments, particularly sea surface temperature (SST), is influenced by natural fluctuations occurring at various temporal and spatial scales. Distinguishing between anthropogenic climate change trends and natural variability is crucial for understanding the complex dynamics of ocean temperatures. This study applies the concept of Time of Emergence (ToE) to estimate when the signal of long-term climate change becomes distinguishable from natural variability in SST for different seasons. The study focuses on the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and North Atlantic Ocean, utilizing 30 ensemble members of simulation from a regional climate model system, MPIOM-REMO, with slightly different initial conditions. The results reveal that winter ToEs emerge earlier than summer ToEs in all study areas, mainly driven by larger winter SST changes and show that shallow coastal seas like the North and Baltic Seas experience earlier ToEs than the deep central North Atlantic. These findings emphasize the influence of regional processes, such as sea ice dynamics and changes in stratification, on the spatial and temporal variability of ToE patterns.

Changes in Vertical Stratification of Neotropical Nymphalid Butterflies at Forest Edges Are Not Directly Caused by Light and Temperature Conditions.

Habitat fragmentation and land use changes threaten neotropical habitats and alter patterns of diversity at forest edges. Like other arthropod assemblages, neotropical fruit-feeding butterfly communities show strong vertical stratification within forests, with some recent work showing its potential role in speciation. At forest edges, species considered to be forest canopy specialists have been observed descending to the forest understory, with the similarity in light conditions between the canopy and understory strata at edges hypothesized to be responsible for this phenomenon. We conducted a study using standardized sampling to document and quantify this edge effect, characterize edge and forest strata, and estimate the relative contributions of temperature and light conditions to changes in nymphalid butterfly stratification at forest edges. We found strong evidence of an edge effect in these butterflies and confirmed strong differences in light and temperature, showing that the edge understory differs little from forest canopy conditions. Of 41 species common to both forests and edges, 28 shifted to have a lower canopy probability at the edge, and our model detected a decrease in canopy probability of 0.165. Furthermore, our analysis indicated the relative abundance of canopy taxa increased at the edge, and the tribes Haeterini and Morphini were especially sensitive to edge effects. However, the analyses here did not clearly implicate temperature or light magnitude in causing changes in neotropical nymphalid vertical stratification at forest edges. Instead, our results point to other mediator variables as being important for changes at tropical forest edges. From our data, edge-responsive species can be separated into two different categories, which likely relates to their resilience to anthropogenic disturbance. We also note that structural causal models have a potential place in future work on tropical conservation, given they can provide causal estimates with observational data.

Upper-Ocean Processes and Sea Ice Production in the Southeastern Amundsen Sea Polynya in Austral Autumn

Abstract The mixed layer of polynyas is vital for local climate as it determines the exchange of properties and energy between ocean, sea ice, and atmosphere. However, its evolution is poorly understood, as it is controlled by complex interactions among these components, yet highly undersampled, especially outside summer. Here, we present a 2-month, high vertical-resolution, full-depth hydrographic dataset from the southeastern Amundsen Sea polynya in austral autumn (from mid-February to mid-April 2014) collected by a recovered seal tag. This novel dataset quantifies the changes in upper-ocean temperature and salinity stratification in this previously unobserved season. Our seal-tag measurements reveal that the mixed layer experiences deepening, salinification, and intense heat loss through surface fluxes. Heat and salt budgets suggest a sea ice formation rate of ∼3 cm per day. We use a one-dimensional model to reproduce the mixed layer evolution and further identify key controls on its characteristics. Our experiments with a range of reduced or amplified air–sea fluxes show that heat loss to the atmosphere and related sea ice formation are the principal determinants of stratification evolution. Additionally, our modeling demonstrates that horizontal advection is required to fully explain the mixed layer evolution, underlining the importance of the ice-covered neighboring region for determining sea ice formation rates in the Amundsen Sea polynya. Our findings suggest that the potential overestimation of sea ice production by satellite-based methods, due to the absence of oceanic heat flux, could be offset by horizontal advection inhibiting mixed layer deepening and sustaining sea ice formation.

Projected phenological shifts in stratification and overturning of ice-covered Northern Hemisphere lakes

The seasonal cycle of vertical mixing is crucial for lake ecosystems, yet its future under climate change remains uncertain. While lake stratification shifts have been widely studied, the annual overturning duration changes are less clear. Using sub-daily simulations from a fully coupled numerical Earth system model, we assess phenological changes in stratification and overturning in Northern Hemisphere ice-covered lakes. We find the total stratification duration (comprising both summer and winter phases) is projected to decrease by 0.7, 4.6, and 6.9 days in 2029, 2067, and 2096, respectively, under global temperature increases of 1.5 °C, 3 °C, and 4.5 °C. Conversely, the duration of overturning is expected to increase by 0.7, 4.2, and 8 days annually. Notably, these changes are asymmetrical, with most of the overturning extension occurring in the fall, following the peak growing season. This extended overturning could affect lake ecosystems, particularly through enhanced ventilation of bottom layers and altered nutrient cycling.

Predicted effect of the grand Ethiopian renaissance dam on the Epilimnion temperature in the high Aswan dam reservoir

AbstractThe Nile River is a crucial geopolitical water stream. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile poses significant challenges for downstream countries, including Egypt. The GERD will be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the seventh in the world. This led many researchers to investigate the impacts of the dam construction on water quantity, agriculture, power generation, and the environment. This study aims to investigate some of the environmental impacts of the operation of the GERD on the High Aswan Dam (HAD) reservoir. Water level fluctuations due to the operation of the GERD will directly affect the thermodynamics of the HAD reservoir. As a result, the vertical distribution of heat will be altered assuming the incoming solar radiation will remain the same. Studies indicate that the water level in the HAD reservoir will decline by 10–27 m, due to the filling of the reservoir upstream of the GERD over the next few years. To quantify the change in temperature, the heat content for the reservoir is calculated pre‐ and post‐dam operation. Moreover, a one‐dimensional simulation model, DYnamic REservoir Simulation Model (DYRESM), was used to simulate the change in thermal stratification of the HAD reservoir pre‐ and post‐GERD operation. Results showed that the epilimnion temperature is expected to increase during summer from an average of 31.9°C pre the GERD operation to 33.7°C post the GERD operation. Consequently, this is expected to affect the ecosystem in the reservoir. The findings of this study highlight the significant environmental impacts of the GERD on HAD reservoir. To mitigate these impacts and ensure the sustainable management of water resources in the Nile River basin, it is imperative to implement comprehensive policies and strategies.

Near-Inertial Oscillations of Thermocline in the Shelf Area off Vladivostok, the Sea of Japan, from a Set of Thermostrings

The shelf area off Vladivostok in the Sea of Japan is known by the intense internal wave activity investigated for many years. The present contribution to these studies is based on data collected on 3–14 October 2022, from four moorings aligned across isobaths and equipped with thermostrings. Multivariate analysis is performed in the depth–time domain, while timescales and directions and speeds of temperature anomaly movement are estimated from wavelet transform. Approximately 50% of the variance results from vertical stratification changes, i.e., thermocline deepening or shoaling, and temperature anomalies on different timescales moved towards the shoaling seafloor. For the first time, near-inertial (NI) oscillations are detected throughout the record and turn out to be the most intense among the 6 to 70 h timescales, moving with the speeds of 0.41–0.55 m/s, although previous attention was paid to the semidiurnal internal tide. A frequency decrease, i.e., red shift, of the NI oscillations is detected towards shallower water, with the frequency eventually becoming subinertial, and is explained by anticyclonic relative vorticity at the eastern side of the mushroom-like structure detected from thermal satellite imagery. The semidiurnal and two-day oscillations were detected, moving with the speeds of 0.95–1.11 and 0.15–1.17 m/s, respectively. The two-day timescale, never reported before, is considered as a difference one caused by nonlinearity. These results are interpreted as the propagation of an internal wave generated at the steep slope offshore to the inner shelf.

Air Temperature Variations Analysis of the Hualian M6.9 Earthquake

This study examines the three-dimensional layered air temperature variations associated with the Hualian M6.9 earthquake, which occurred on 18 September 2022, using data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and extracting background information for air temperature through tidal forces. Changes in air temperature stratification revealed that near the epicenter, temperature anomalies began on 12 September and peaked on 13 September, with pronounced increases in magnitude and area. These anomalies followed a seismic thermal anomaly pattern, i.e., one with greater amplitude and a wider range near the land surface, decreasing with altitude until they dissipated, while the other exhibited high atmospheric temperature anomalies, i.e., the upper atmospheric warming exceeded that near the land surface, likely due to meteorological factors. Stable weather conditions and a low geomagnetic Kp index and Dst index during the research period supported the reliability of these findings. The deformation field recorded by InSAR reflects crustal deformation directly caused by fault slip and stress accumulation; moreover, the area with significantly higher air temperature coincides with the areas with the most concentrated deformation.

Orbital pacing of the early Eocene source rock deposition in Tunisia (Bou Dabbous Formation): Astrobiochronological insights into cyclicities through surface-subsurface integration

The Early Eocene Bou Dabbous Formation (BDF) source rock is an economically important source rock in the SW Neo-Tethys covering most of the Ypresian outer ramp to basin deposits in Tunisia. The main rock types of the BDF in central Tunisia include globigerinids-rich grey to black laminated marl and limestone, which occur with an obvious cyclicity at astronomical timescales. This study examines two high-resolution borehole records from northern and eastern Tunisia and an outcrop analog in central Tunisia. The datasets examined were total organic carbon (TOC), magnetic susceptibility, CaCO3, δ13C, δ18O, and Gamma-Ray (GR). We aim to investigate the relationship between the rhythmic patterns observed at the BDF outcrop and the Milankovitch cycles and contextualize the findings within the Ypresian Astrochronological Time Scale (YATS). Additionally, we will discuss the impact of astronomical forcing on sea-level variations and the upwelling system during a greenhouse world. Field measurements and power spectra of the untuned data reveal a hierarchy of cycles throughout the BDF with ∼11.1 m, 4.1, 2.4 m, 1.1 m, and 0.6 m wavelengths. Tuning the 11.1 m cycles to the 405 kyr eccentricity cycle, the astronomical parameters—eccentricity, obliquity, and the precession index—become apparent. The 405 kyr eccentricity cycle is linked to relative sea-level changes inferred from sequence stratigraphy analysis and sedimentary noise modeling. Periods with increased TOC are associated with strong obliquity forcing inferred from the power decomposition analysis and the strong 173-kyr obliquity modulation cycles. The Ypresian record from Tunisia demonstrates the orbital pacing on the strength of the upwelling system, by affecting both the sea level and the climatic belt (wind regime). From 53.89 Ma to 53.2 Ma (TOC >2 wt %), our model demonstrates that obliquity-driven changes in water stratification led to episodes of varying oxygen levels at the bottom of the basin, affecting organic matter decay and preservation. During the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum, changes in climatic belts and wind patterns, along with rising sea levels, led to a shift in the high organic matter accumulation zone. This resulted in a weakened upwelling system in central Tunisia and reduced organic matter accumulation (TOC <0.5 wt%).

Development of HAWT wake under thermal stratification conditions

The evolution analysis of the wind wake downstream of a rotor submerged in a stratified atmospheric boundary layer is discussed in this work. The hybrid model AD-CFD is used, to obtain the velocity field. The changes in thermal stratification are taken into account when solving the energy conservation equation. Results from the unstable stratification case indicate a 41% velocity deficit and 30% is found for stable thermal stratification, at z = 1D. this work show that in a stratified atmospheric boundary layer, an isolated wind turbine’s ability to produce electricity is more impacted by stable thermal stratification than by unstable ones.

Upper-ocean changes with hurricane-strength wind events: a study using Argo profiles and an ocean reanalysis

Abstract. As the Earth's climate warms, the intensity and rain rate of tropical cyclones (TCs) is projected to increase. TCs intensify by extracting heat energy from the ocean; hence, a better understanding of upper-ocean changes with the TC passage is helpful to improve our understanding of air–sea interactions during and after the event. This work uses Argo float observations and the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) ocean reanalysis to describe characteristics of upper-ocean changes with hurricane-strength wind events. We study the association of these changes with the vertical structure of the salinity profile before the event, i.e., increasing versus decreasing with depth. We also study the contribution of changes in salinity to upper-ocean density changes in each case. Results show that in regions where pre-event salinity increases with depth there is a corresponding statistically significant increase in upper-ocean salinity; vice versa, we observe a significant decrease in upper-ocean salinity in regions where pre-event salinity decreases with depth. Consistent with previous studies, temperature decreases in both regions. As near-surface temperature decreases, upper-ocean density increases, and the increase is larger where pre-event salinity increases with depth. Changes in upper-ocean properties from Argo and HYCOM are overall consistent with wind-driven vertical mixing of near-surface waters with colder and higher-salinity (or lower-salinity) waters below. Resulting changes in ocean stratification have implications for air–sea interactions during and after the event, with potential impacts on weather events that follow.

Synergistic Impact of Diurnal Warm Layers and Inertial Wave Mixing on Sea Surface Temperature Warming and Upper Ocean Stratification

AbstractWe study two sea surface temperature (SST) warming events and upper ocean stratification changes in the northern South China Sea in 2022 using data from an EM‐APEX float and satellite observations. The diurnal warm layers (DWLs) and the increasing buoyancy frequency N2 above the top of the thermocline can restrict the penetration depth of nighttime convection and wind‐driven mixing, which prevents cooler water from mixing upward, allowing solar heating to increase the SST by more than 1°C in a few days. The stratification budget approach is used to reproduce observations below 40 m despite some uncertainties in estimating variables such as horizontal gradient. After the first SST warming event, the stratification changes in the subsurface layers constituted by an increase in N2 above 70 m and a decrease below this depth can be attributed to the combined effects of turbulent diffusion and vertical advection rather than to horizontal advection or penetrative solar radiation. This ocean interior mixing is likely caused by the shear of near‐inertial waves at ∼50 m, when the nighttime convection could not penetrate through the DWL's base around 20 m. The stratification budget approach fails to simulate the changes above 40 m after the second SST warming event partly due to the presence of a near‐surface freshwater layer. Our observations offer insights into the effect of inertial wave‐induced mixing in the ocean interior when near‐surface stratified layers are present, which can lead to changes in upper ocean stratification and SST.

Chile Niño/Niña in the coupled model intercomparison project phases 5 and 6

The north and central coast of Chile is influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through oceanic and atmospheric teleconnections. However, it also experiences episodic oceanic warmings off central Chile (30°S) lasting a few months that are not necessarily associated with ENSO. These episodes, called “Chile Niño” events, besides their ecological and socio-economical impacts, have also the potential to influence tropical Pacific variability. Here, we investigate how realistically the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP, Phases 5 and 6) simulate Chile Niño/Niña (CN) events, and quantify their changes under anthropogenic forcing. Despite limitations of the global models in simulating realistically coastal upwelling dynamics, we show that they simulate reasonably well the observed spatial pattern, amplitude and seasonal evolution of CN events. They however fail to properly represent the positive skewness from observations. The analysis of a sub-group of models (36) that simulate ENSO realistically reveals that CN events increase in amplitude and variance in the future climate with no changes in their frequency of occurence. This is interpreted as resulting from compensating effects amongst changes in remote drivers and local feedbacks. In particular, ENSO variance increases while that of the South Pacific Oscillation decreases. Conversely, we found that while the Wind-Evaporation-SST feedback tends to increase and the coupling between mixed-layer depth and SST weakens, favoring the development of CN events, the thermocline and wind-SST feedbacks decrease. However, only the change in the thermocline feedback is correlated to changes in CN variance amongst the models, suggesting a dominant role of local oceanic stratification changes in constraining the sensitivity of CN to global warming.

Clinical utility of an artificial intelligence radiomics-based tool for risk stratification of pulmonary nodules.

Clinical utility data on pulmonary nodule (PN) risk stratification biomarkers are lacking. We aimed to determine the incremental predictive value and clinical utility of using an artificial intelligence (AI) radiomics-based computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) tool in addition to routine clinical information to risk stratify PNs among real-world patients. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with PNs who underwent lung biopsy. We collected clinical data and used a commercially available AI radiomics-based CAD tool to calculate a Lung Cancer Prediction (LCP) score. We developed logistic regression models to evaluate a well-validated clinical risk prediction model (the Mayo Clinic model) with and without the LCP score (Mayo vs Mayo + LCP) using area under the curve (AUC), risk stratification table, and standardized net benefit analyses. Among the 134 patients undergoing PN biopsy, cancer prevalence was 61%. Addition of the radiomics-based LCP score to the Mayo model was associated with increased predictive accuracy (likelihood ratio test, P = .012). The AUCs for the Mayo and Mayo + LCP models were 0.58 (95% CI = 0.48 to 0.69) and 0.65 (95% CI = 0.56 to 0.75), respectively. At the 65% risk threshold, the Mayo + LCP model was associated with increased sensitivity (56% vs 38%; P = .019), similar false positive rate (33% vs 35%; P = .8), and increased standardized net benefit (18% vs -3.3%) compared with the Mayo model. Use of a commercially available AI radiomics-based CAD tool as a supplement to clinical information improved PN cancer risk prediction and may result in clinically meaningful changes in risk stratification.

Predictors of long-term variability in NE Atlantic plankton communities

Anthropogenic pressures such as climate change and nutrient pollution are causing rapid changes in the marine environment. The relative influence of drivers of change on the plankton community remains uncertain, and this uncertainty is limiting our understanding of sustainable levels of human pressures. Plankton are the primary energy resource in marine food webs and respond rapidly to environmental changes, representing useful indicators of shifts in ecosystem structure and function. Categorising plankton into broad groups with similar characteristics, known as “lifeforms”, can be useful for understanding ecological patterns related to environmental change and for assessing the state of pelagic habitats in accordance with the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive and the OSPAR Commission, which mandates protection of the North-East Atlantic. We analysed 29 years of Continuous Plankton Recorder data (1993–2021) from the North-East Atlantic to examine how trends in plankton lifeform abundance changed in relation to one another and across gradients of environmental change associated with human pressures. Random forest models predicted between 57 % and 80 % of the variability in lifeform abundance, based on data not used to train the models. Observed variability was mainly explained by trends in other lifeforms, with mainly positively correlated trends, indicating bottom-up control and/or shared responses to environmental variability were prevalent. Longitude, bathymetry, mixed layer depth, the nitrogen-to‑phosphorus ratio, and temperature were also significant predictors. However, contrasting influences of environmental drivers were detected. For example, small copepod abundance increased in warmer conditions whereas meroplankton, large copepods and fish larvae either decreased or were unchanged. Our findings highlight recent changes in stratification, reflected by variation in mixed layer depth, and imbalanced nutrient ratios are affecting multiple lifeforms, impacting the North-East Atlantic plankton community. To achieve environmental improvements in North-East Atlantic pelagic habitats, it is crucial that we continue to address climate change and reduce nutrient pollution.

Interaction Between Typhoon, Marine Heatwaves, and Internal Tides: Observational Insights From Ieodo Ocean Research Station in the Northern East China Sea

AbstractTyphoons, fueled by warm sea surface waters, heighten concern as they increasingly interact with frequent Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) in a changing climate. Typhoon Hinnamnor (2022) weakened and re‐intensified as it approached the Korean Strait, interacting with an underlying MHW in the northern East China Sea (nECS). In‐situ observations and reanalysis products revealed a significant increase in latent heat loss from the nECS during the MHW period, contributing to the typhoon re‐intensification. Strong sea surface wind forcing with the typhoon enhanced vertical mixing and upwelling, resulting in a pronounced (0.90°C) sea surface cooling after the typhoon passage, facilitating MHW disappearance with reduced thermal stratification. During MHWs, increased background stratification increases temperature oscillations associated with semidiurnal internal tides. Furthermore, post‐typhoon changes in stratification weakened semidiurnal internal tides due to unfavorable conditions for generation from a nearby source. These findings highlight the importance of continuous time‐series observations to monitor interactions among climatic extremes.

Transient micropaleontological turnover across a late Eocene (Priabonian) carbon and oxygen isotope shift on Blake Nose (NW Atlantic)

Abstract. The Gulf Stream, a western boundary current transporting warm water into the North Atlantic, plays a key role in climate regulation and oceanographic stability at a regional and global scale as part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Evidence suggests that an ancestral Gulf Stream has existed since the Mesozoic, and it has altered its course repeatedly over Cenozoic times. In this study, we focus on the upper Eocene (Priabonian, ca. 36 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1053 on Blake Nose (subtropical North Atlantic). Bulk carbon and oxygen stable isotopes, as well as benthic foraminiferal and calcareous nannofossil assemblages, provide an integrated assessment of the palaeoceanographic changes impacting the area through the water column to the seafloor. Micropaleontological assemblages suggest changes in surface ocean stratification and nutrient supply to the seafloor coeval with a paired negative carbon and oxygen isotope excursion and the return to background conditions higher up in the study section. These transitory changes are compatible with the longitudinal displacement of the proto-Gulf Stream and its related eddies. Our results build on previous work and support the hypothesis that links palaeoceanographic changes in the Blake Nose area with shifts in the proto-Gulf Stream during the middle and late Eocene.

Prediction of long-term changes of weak diurnal stratification in shallow lakes using artificial neural networks

ABSTRACT Thermal stratification plays a key role in lakes' ecosystems. In contrast to deep lakes, the thermal structure of shallow polymictic lakes is characterized by a weak stratification with an apparent diurnal cycle. Long-term changes in stratification are governed by climate change and anthropogenic effects such as water level regulation. We developed a simple and robust model system consisting of an energy balance model to estimate depth-averaged water temperatures and an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict stratification with high temporal resolution. One novelty of our approach is that instead of directly estimating water temperatures at different depths, we simulated the potential energy anomaly index, the indicator of stratification's strength. The ANN-based model's performance was assessed against a physical-based one-dimensional model (General Ocean Turbulence Model) by modeling a 40-year-long period from 1981 to 2020. The new model accurately predicts a shallow lake's weak stratification and its diurnal cycle. Besides, the model proved reliable on longer time scales, capturing the effect of climate change, anthropogenic water level regulation, and their synergistic interaction on the change of stratification's intensity and duration.

Seasonal and Fortnight Variations in Internal Solitary Waves in the Indonesian Seas From the SWOT Measurements

AbstractUsing the wide‐swath sea surface height (SSH) data from the 1‐day repeat calibration/validation phase of the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, we explored fine‐scale evolution of nonlinear internal solitary waves (ISWs) in the Banda/Molucca Seas in the Indonesian Archipelagos. Generated in the Ombai Strait and Lifamatola Passage through semidiurnal tide‐topography interaction, respectively, ISWs in the Banda/Molucca Seas have a SSH amplitude of 10–20 cm and exhibit multiple wave packets with the leading wave crest followed by a series of rank‐ordered secondary wave crests. Due to nonlinearity, the ISWs are observed to propagate northward at a speed faster than the regional mode‐1 internal gravity waves and their amplitudes are modulated fortnightly following the regional spring‐neap tidal cycle. On longer timescale, the observed ISW amplitudes are controlled by seasonal upper ocean stratification changes with a weaker stratification favoring a larger amplitude. By converting the SWOT‐measured SSH data to the interior ocean pressure signals, we quantified the depth‐integrated energy flux associated with the northward‐propagating ISWs to be 5 and 2 kW m−1 in the central Banda and Molucca Seas, respectively. Comparisons with past studies indicate that the ISWs contribute to close to 100% and 40% of the tidally‐induced, northward energy fluxes, respectively, across the Banda and Molucca Seas.

Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes

Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45° N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6 million water quality observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation strongly linked to climate-driven prolongation of summer stratification. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10 ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained oxygen under minimal stratification changes and improved aeration at spring overturns. Seasonal oxygen consumption rates declined, despite widespread browning. Proliferating anoxia enhanced seasonal internal loading of C, P and N but depleted P long-term, indicating that deoxygenation can exhaust redox-sensitive fractions of sediment nutrient reservoirs.

Emerging Hotspots of Surface Chlorophyll Trend in the Tropical Oceans

AbstractRecent studies show that climate change signals in the long‐term trend of the tropical ecosystems have emerged earlier than projected by climate models. However, it remains unclear whether tropical ocean surface chlorophyll (SChl) shows a robust trend in the available satellite data era, and what possible physical mechanisms can be responsible for this trend. Here, using combined data from observations, hindcast biogeochemical simulations, and climate model outputs, we document consistently decreasing trends of SChl in the three ocean basins (Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean) with varying magnitude from −1.6% to −10.0% per decade during 1998–2020, with tropical ocean SChl showing a decreasing trend of −7.1% per decade. In the Indo‐Pacific Ocean, mechanisms for the two hotspots with significantly decreasing SChl trends are identified. (a) In the northern tropical Pacific, under the anthropogenic forcing, enhanced stratification associated with frequent interannual surface warming overwhelms the Ekman pumping effect due to positive wind stress curl, leading to a decrease in SChl. (b) In the southern tropical Indian Ocean, the downwelling process dominates the decreasing SChl trend due to the Ekman pumping associated with the negative wind stress curl prevailing in the Indian Ocean, while the contribution from the stratification change is negligible. This study identifies two hotspots with consistently decreasing SChl trends in the tropical ocean which are influenced by the complex physical processes under a warmer climate and calls for more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between physical processes and biogeochemical cycles in the tropical ocean ecosystems.