Changes In Distribution Of Species Research Articles

Bee discovery suggests the importance of urban gardens in a changing world

AbstractThe diversity and distribution of wild bees are dramatically changing due to habitat fragmentation, agricultural intensification and climate change. In cities, urban gardens are proposed ‘island’ habitats for bees offering floral and nesting resources. Yet, it is largely unclear how gardens play a role in changes in species diversity and distribution. This paper reports on the discovery of a bee species to our knowledge previously undocumented in the region of Berlin, Germany. We discovered Lasioglossum limbellum in a community garden created on concrete slabs of annual and perennial vegetation. As a cavity nester in soft rock cliffs—a natural habitat functionally not existent in urban areas—the life history of this species makes this discovery particularly interesting, and an opportunity to explore the role of urban gardens in biodiversity change. This report aims to spur future research, reporting and discussion on the changes in diversity and distribution of wild bees specifically in urban areas.

Plant specialisation may limit climate‐induced vegetation change to within topographic and edaphic niches on a sub‐Antarctic island

Abstract Extreme changes in temperature, rainfall and wind regimes have been correlated with plant species range expansion upslope on sub‐Antarctic islands. Ongoing climatic changes are expected to continue driving changes in species distributions globally, but niche specialisations may limit the capacity for range shifts. We hypothesised that non‐climatic characteristics of ecological niches of vascular plant species could limit climate induced range shifts. We determined the altitudinal ranges of vascular plant species (n = 13) on sub‐Antarctic Marion Island and measured air temperature, topographic, foliar and soil properties along transects on geologically distinct substrates. Climatic and non‐climatic associations were determined using multiple linear regression and boosted regression tree (BRT) analyses. The degree of niche specialisation was determined using outlying mean index analysis within the range of species on the island. Several species (7 of 13) exhibited niche‐specialisation. Correlation analysis revealed that edaphic properties including soil depth, loss on ignition, the principal component of most soil nutrients (Mg, Cl, K, Ca, Cu, Zn, P, S), Si, Mn and clay dominated the BRT prediction of overall plant cover. Although air temperature was correlated with plant cover in linear models, model simplification dropped temperature in both BRT and linear models. As a consequence, multiple determinants, including temperature, climate, topography and soils control the distribution of vascular plant species on this sub‐Antarctic island. Edaphic and topographic factors is likely to limit range‐shifts of specialised vascular plant species and could limit their survival when climate change drives them beyond the extent of their particular ecological niches. Resilience of such species is likely poorly predicted by distribution models that depend heavily on climate rather than less labile non‐climatic factors. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Changes in tree layer and altitudinal distribution of herbaceous species in temperate old-growth forests over 30 years

Temperate forest ecosystems, including old-growth fragments, are subject to increasing pressures, both from biotic and abiotic factors. Frequent disturbance events, rising mean annual temperatures and longer-lasting droughts are causing changes in tree species composition, probably shifting the altitudinal distribution of herbaceous species as well. Our goal was to examine whether such shifts can be observed even in old-growth temperate forests, and if the changes in the species composition and spatial distribution of trees is reflected in the herbaceous layer. Our study was based on a survey of several old-growth forests from the 1970s that was repeated after 30 years. Using spatial point pattern methods and generalized linear mixed effect models, repeated measurements of mapped phytosociological relevés and detailed maps of tree positions from two survey periods allowed us to examine how the species composition of the herb layer and the spatial distribution of trees ≥ 10 cm DBH (diameter at breast height) changed over 30 years. On most of the studied sites, the total number of trees declined and the proportion of broadleaves increased between the two surveys. Analyses of tree spatial distribution showed a general shift from a regular spatial distribution in the 1970s to a clustered spatial distribution of trees in the 2000s. In the 2000s, herbaceous species showed an upwards shift in their distribution compared to the 1970s, even after accounting for the effect of changing tree spatial distributions in both survey periods. These effects could be an outcome of warmer and drier weather conditions during the past decades. Further investigation is needed to examine whether this trend is related to changes in climatic conditions.

Birds adapted to cold conditions show greater changes in range size related to past climatic oscillations than temperate birds

Investigation of ecological responses of species to past climate oscillations provides crucial information to understand the effects of global warming. In this work, we investigated how past climate changes affected the distribution of six bird species with different climatic requirements and migratory behaviours in the Western Palearctic and in Africa. Species Distribution Models and Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 2 fossil occurrences of selected species were employed to evaluate the relation between changes in range size and species climatic tolerances. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) range predictions, generally well supported by the MIS 2 fossil occurrences, suggest that cold-dwelling species considerably expanded their distribution in the LGM, experiencing more pronounced net changes in range size compared to temperate species. Overall, the thermal niche proves to be a key ecological trait for explaining the impact of climate change in species distributions. Thermal niche is linked to range size variations due to climatic oscillations, with cold-adapted species currently suffering a more striking range reduction compared to temperate species. This work also supports the persistence of Afro-Palearctic migrations during the LGM due to the presence of climatically suitable wintering areas in Africa even during glacial maxima.

Fish Species Diversity From Someșul Cald River: 50Years After Cascade Dam Constructions

In the present study, changes in fish species composition, distribution, and diversity caused by cascade dam constructions on Someșul Cald River, Romania, were analyzed. Cascade dam constructions may act as a freshwater stressor both on short and long term. The river was divided into two sections according to the positioning of the cascade dams (T1-inferior section, respectively T2-superior section). In the T1 and T2 sections, 8 and 12 sampling stations were established, respectively. A total number of 1789 specimens grouped in 12 species and 8 families were sampled from August to September 2018. The most abundant species in both sections was S. trutta. The most abundant family was Salmonidae, with 66.2%. Alpha diversity (species richness) in the T2 section was higher than in T1 (T2 = 12 species vs T1 = 9 species). The Kruskal-Wallis test indicated no significant differences (p > 0.05) for beta diversity of T1 vs T2 (Sørensen coefficient). The species that contributed most to the dissimilarities between the two river sections were T. thymallus, B. carpathicus, C. gobio, and S. cephalus, their summed contribution to the dissimilarity being larger than 50%. The analyzed environmental variables influenced the distribution of some fish species. Alpha and beta diversity distribution on elevation gradient showed that stations close to reservoirs had more species (both in T1 and T2 sections) than the other stations, clearly showing that the distance from lake/reservoir is influencing species richness. The effect of dams from Someșul Cald River on fish species distribution was analyzed by comparing previous data (before 1968) to recent collected data.

Plant beta-diversity across biomes captured by imaging spectroscopy

Monitoring the rapid and extensive changes in plant species distributions occurring worldwide requires large-scale, continuous and repeated biodiversity assessments. Imaging spectrometers are at the core of novel spaceborne sensor fleets designed for this task, but the degree to which they can capture plant species composition and diversity across ecosystems has yet to be determined. Here we use imaging spectroscopy and vegetation data collected by the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) to show that at the landscape level, spectral beta-diversity—calculated directly from spectral images—captures changes in plant species composition across all major biomes in the United States ranging from arctic tundra to tropical forests. At the local level, however, the relationship between spectral alpha- and plant alpha-diversity was positive only at sites with high canopy density and large plant-to-pixel size. Our study demonstrates that changes in plant species composition and diversity can be effectively and reliably assessed with imaging spectroscopy across terrestrial ecosystems at the beta-diversity scale—the spatial scale of spaceborne missions—paving the way for close-to-real-time biodiversity monitoring at the planetary level.

Prey-Base Does Not Influence Breeding Success in Eagle Owls (Bubo bubo) in Judea, Israel.

Simple SummaryWe studied the diet and breeding success of Eagle Owls (Bubo bubo) at 14 nests in the Judea region, Israel. A total of 9461 prey items were identified and although mammals and birds dominated, there were also reptiles, amphibians, and invertebrates. The gradient of diversity of mammalian prey decreased from west to east; and avian prey increased correspondingly. The index of prey species diversity had no relationship with breeding success. The prey-base of the Eagle Owls helped identify the changes in geographic distributions of several species. The Eagle Owl’s diet emphasizes its generalist foraging habits, but pairs may be species-specific specialists. This adaptation is especially important in a fast-developing and congested country like Israel and probably allows the species to subsist in the region.The diet and breeding success of Eagle Owls (Bubo bubo) have been suggested to vary at different latitudes. However, it is still unclear whether and how these relationships exist at lower latitudes outside of Europe. We therefore studied the diet and breeding success of Eagle Owls during four breeding seasons at 14 nests in the Judea region, Israel. Of a total of 9461 prey items were identified; mammals (N = 6896, 35 species; 72.89%, biomass 62.3%) and birds (N = 2255, 55 species, 23.83%; biomass 36.0%) predominated the prey-base. We found that the gradient of diversity of the mammalian prey decreased from west to east; and avian prey increased from east to west. The index of species diversity, H’ for all prey, had no relationship with breeding success. The prey-base of the Eagle Owls helped identify the changes in geographic distributions of several species. Marbled polecat (Vormela peregusna), especially threatened, appear to be relatively abundant, as are brown rats (Ratttus norvegicus) which were previously considered to be restricted to the coastal regions. In addition to Egyptian fruit bats (Rousettus aegyptiacus), the Eagle Owls also preyed on nine different species of insectivorous bats, several of which appear to have enlarged their geographic distribution within Israel. The Eagle Owl’s diet emphasizes its generalist foraging habits, but pairs may be species-specific specialists. This adaptation is especially important in a fast-developing and congested country like Israel, because a generalist hunting strategy probably allows the species to subsist in the region.

Recent change in spatial distribution of the European flat oyster (Ostrea edulis) inferred from field data and empirical models of living oysters and empty shells.

Marine coastal areas are increasingly affected by human activities resulting in changes in species and habitat distributions. Understanding these patterns and its causes and consequences is important for conservation and restoration of such changing habitats. One habitat that has been heavily affected by human use are the North Sea oyster beds which once were abundant but have lost large parts of its coastal distribution due to overexploitation. Based on data of living and dead assemblages of Ostrea edulis collected using video transects, we used an ensemble modeling technique to model and predict current and recent distribution of O. edulis along the Swedish west coast where its distribution is, in relative terms, still rather unaffected. We could detect a recent change in the distribution of O. edulis along the coast which to a large extent could be attributed to a change in depth distribution, suggesting that the population of O. edulis have a slightly shallower distribution today than in the past. Although a potential mismatch between living and dead assemblages, caused by a complex combination of biological and environmental conditions, needs to be considered in the interpretations drawn, it may be a way around the lack of suitable background data in management decisions. This provides important information for management and conservation of the native oyster beds. Furthermore, this study illustrates a method for identifying recent changes in species distribution using dead assemblages of bivalves.

Longer and faster: Intra-annual growth dynamics of Douglas fir outperform Norway spruce and silver fir over wide climatic gradients

Climate change is expected to have significant impacts on European forests, causing changes in the geographic distribution of species and ecosystem functioning. Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and silver fir (Abies alba) are considered potential alternatives to the drought endangered Norway spruce (Picea abies). However, still little is known about differences in their intra-annual growth dynamics, an important characteristic determining the adaptive capacity of each species. Here we make use of more than 5000 microcores from 132 trees of the three species distributed along three elevational transects (370–1125 m a.s.l.) spanning a temperature gradient of 5 °C in South-Western Germany to compare their intra-annual growth dynamics in a context of changing climate. Results indicate an earlier onset of cambial cell production of about 5.1 days per °C temperature increase for all tree species. Douglas fir produced the highest number of cells and exhibited the longest seasonal period of wood formation, starting two and four weeks earlier and ceasing about two and three weeks later than silver fir and Norway spruce, respectively. Additionally, Douglas fir displayed the highest maximum cell production rate and a 20% higher average cell production rate than Norway spruce and even 50% higher rate than silver fir. We found that soil moisture, but even more the number of produced cells were significantly correlated with the date of growth cessation, compared to a negligible correlation with mean annual temperature (MAT). The superior growth performance of Douglas fir resulting from a longer growth duration with higher rates of cambial cell division was consistent across our climatic gradient. These results corroborate that Douglas fir could be a high-performance alternative to the more climate-change-endangered Norway spruce.

Changes in the potential distribution of valuable tree species based on their regeneration in the Neotropical seasonal dry forest of north-western Argentina

SummaryThe distribution of regeneration makes it possible to assess whether populations of tree species will maintain or change their distributions. For Neotropical dry forests there is little information on the potential changes in the distribution of tree species. Here, we evaluate the potential distributions of adults and seedlings of eight timber tree species of the Piedmont Forest of north-western Argentina by recording the presence of seedlings and adults in plots and modelling with MaxEnt software using three bioclimatic variables. The potential distribution areas of seedlings and adults and the percentage of overlap of seedlings with respect to adults were calculated. The potential distribution for adults was 694 457 ± 62 535 ha, and this figure was 656 564 ± 194 769 ha for seedlings. The potential distribution of seedlings of Calycophyllum multiflorum covered the smallest area (184 496 ha) and had the least overlap with the adults (18%). The difference in the overlap of the potential distribution areas between adults and seedlings suggests that there could be changes in the future distribution of this tree species and C. multiflorum should therefore be the focus of conservation strategies so that the species can follow its bioclimatic niche as the climate changes.

Assessing warming impacts on marine fishes by integrating physiology‐guided distribution projections, life‐history changes and food web dynamics

Abstract Rising ocean temperatures pose a continuing threat to marine fish communities. As warming has far‐reaching impacts at multiple ecological levels, incorporating multimodal data is necessary for more accurately forecasting the responses of species and communities to the warming ocean. Range shifts, life‐history changes, and alterations of trophic dynamics are three important aspects of warming impacts, yet there has not been a formal integration of all three aspects in the same analysis. Here, we present a novel framework that integrates species distribution projections, life‐history changes, and food web dynamics to assess warming impacts on marine fish communities. We first introduce a simple yet effective way of incorporating thermal physiological data into the species distribution model without the need to empirically measure thermal performance curves. We then use the dynamic size‐spectrum model as the modeling backbone to incorporate data from species distributions and population‐level life history analyses. With this framework, we evaluate how individual species are affected under two warming scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We also simulate large‐scale top‐down and bottom‐up perturbations to examine community resilience under rising temperatures. We find that warming generally reduces species biomass and shifts species size spectra towards larger individuals, even though the maximum size tends to decrease under warming. However, the exact responses to rising temperatures differ among species and do not exhibit strong correlations with species size and the pace of life history. More severe warming also renders the focal community more vulnerable to top‐down perturbations, even though the community remains sufficiently resilient overall. The complex nature of species and community responses result from the fact that distribution range, life history, and food web dynamics change with warming in different directions that may not be intuitive to predict a priori. Importantly, we show that neglecting changes in species distribution or life history will lead to biased assessment of species and community responses. Our analyses highlight trophic dynamics, species biomass, and community resilience as three emergent properties that our framework can uniquely quantify. This integrative framework is readily applicable to other communities of interest and can be scaled up for multi‐regional or global analyses.

Potential combined impacts of climate change and non-indigenous species arrivals on Bay of Biscay trophic network structure and functioning

The consequences of climate change for marine organisms are now well-known, and include metabolism and behavior modification, distribution area shifts and changes in the community. In the Bay of Biscay, the potential environmental niches of subtropical non-indigenous species (NIS) are projected to expand as a response to sea temperature rise by the mid-century under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. In this context, this study aims to project the combined effects of changes in indigenous species distribution and metabolism and NIS arrivals on the functioning of the Bay of Biscay trophic network. To do this, we created six different Ecopath food web models: a “current situation” trophic model (2007–2016) and five “future” trophic models. The latter five models included various NIS biomass combinations to reflect different potential scenarios of NIS arrivals. For each model, eight Ecological Network Analysis (ENA) indices were calculated, describing the properties of the food web resulting from the sum of interactions between organisms. Our results illustrate that rising temperature increases the quantity of energy passing through the system due to increased productivity. A decrease in the biomass of some trophic groups due to the reduction of their potential environmental niches also leads to changes in the structure of the trophic network. The arrival of NIS is projected to change the fate of organic matter within the ecosystem, with higher cycling, relative ascendency, and a chain-like food web. It could also cause new trophic interactions that could lead to competition and thus modify the food-web structure, with lower omnivory and higher detritivory. The combined impacts (increasing temperatures and NIS arrivals) could lower the resilience and resistance of the system.

Overexpression of phospholipid: diacylglycerol acyltransferase in Brassica napus results in changes in lipid metabolism and oil accumulation.

The regulation of lipid metabolism in oil seeds is still not fully understood and increasing our knowledge in this regard is of great economic, as well as intellectual, importance. Oilseed rape (Brassica napus) is a major global oil crop where increases in triacylglycerol (TAG) accumulation have been achieved by overexpression of relevant biosynthetic enzymes. In this study, we expressed Arabidopsis phospholipid: diacylglycerol acyltransferase (PDAT1), one of the two major TAG-forming plant enzymes in B. napus DH12075 to evaluate its effect on lipid metabolism in developing seeds and to estimate its flux control coefficient. Despite several-fold increase in PDAT activity, seeds of three independently generated PDAT transgenic events showed a small but consistent decrease in seed oil content and had altered fatty acid composition of phosphoglycerides and TAG, towards less unsaturation. Mass spectrometry imaging of seed sections confirmed the shift in lipid compositions and indicated that PDAT overexpression altered the distinct heterogeneous distributions of phosphatidylcholine (PC) molecular species. Similar, but less pronounced, changes in TAG molecular species distributions were observed. Our data indicate that PDAT exerts a small, negative, flux control on TAG biosynthesis and could have under-appreciated effects in fine-tuning of B. napus seed lipid composition in a tissue-specific manner. This has important implications for efforts to increase oil accumulation in similar crops.

Long‐term monitoring in endangered woodlands shows effects of multi‐scale drivers on bird occupancy

AbstractAimsThe effect of spatial scale on the location and abundance of species has long been a major topic of interest in ecology. Accounting for key drivers at multiple scales is critical for rigorous description of patterns of species distribution and biodiversity change. We quantified the effects of potential drivers of bird occupancy across a geographically dispersed, but heavily disturbed and fragmented ecosystem.LocationThreatened Box‐Gum Grassy Woodlands in south‐eastern Australia, which stretch across 9° of latitude (~900 km).TaxonBirds (Class Aves).MethodsWe grouped data from four monitoring studies of birds that spanned 10–22 years in Box‐Gum Grassy Woodlands. We then employed joint species distribution modelling to investigate multi‐species responses to environmental drivers measured at patch, landscape and regional scales, and selected combinations of all three.ResultsWe show that in Box‐Gum Grassy Woodlands: vegetation structure influences bird occupancy beyond the presence of the despotic Noisy Miner (Manorina melanocephala); woodland cover is more important than vegetation productivity and topographic position; bird occupancy is sensitive to a combination of average climate, seasonality, and summer and winter extremes; and there is limited redundancy between drivers of bird occupancy at different scales. Species differ most in their response to presence of the Noisy Miner, high summer temperatures and nearby woodland cover.Main ConclusionsQuantifying the influence of environmental drivers that act at different spatial scales is valuable for understanding patterns of bird species occurrence. Fine‐scale studies can benefit from considering the climate and biogeographical context in which the research occurs. Conversely, large‐scale studies should recognise that downscaling species occupancy projections from continental to patch scales requires careful consideration of the role of patch‐scale vegetation.

Using expert-elicitation to deliver biodiversity monitoring priorities on a Mediterranean island

Biodiversity monitoring plays an essential role in tracking changes in ecosystems, species distributions and abundances across the globe. Data collected through both structured and unstructured biodiversity recording can inform conservation measures designed to reduce, prevent, and reverse declines in valued biodiversity of many types. However, given that resources for biodiversity monitoring are limited, it is important that funding bodies prioritise investments relative to the requirements in any given region. We addressed this prioritisation requirement for a biodiverse Mediterranean island (Cyprus) using a three-stage process of expert-elicitation. This resulted in a structured list of twenty biodiversity monitoring needs; specifically, a hierarchy of three groups of these needs was created using a consensus approach. The most highly prioritised biodiversity monitoring needs were those related to the development of robust survey methodologies, and those ensuring that sufficiently skilled citizens are available to contribute. We discuss ways that the results of our expert-elicitation process could be used to support current and future biodiversity monitoring in Cyprus.

MaxEnt model-based prediction of potential distributions of Parnassiawightiana (Celastraceae) in China.

The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model for predicting the potential suitable habitat of species has been commonly employed in many ecological and biological applications by using presence-only occurrence records along with associated environmental factors. Parnassiawightiana, a perennial herb, is a cold-adapted plant distributed across three diversity hotspots in China, including the Hengduan Range, Central China and the Lingnan region. The MaxEnt model was used to simulate the historic, current and future distribution trends of P.wightiana, as well as to analyse its distribution pattern in each historical period and explore the causes of species distribution changes. The results of our analysis indicated that annual precipitation, annual temperature range and mean temperature of the warmest quarter were the key bioclimatic variables affecting the distribution of P.wightiana. Most temperate species retracted into smaller refugial areas during glacial periods and experienced range expansion during interglacial periods. Possible refugia of the species were inferred to be located in the Hengduan Range and Qinling Regions.

The Effects of Environmental Changes on Plant Species and Forest Dependent Communities in the Amazon Region

We review the consequences of environmental changes caused by human activities on forest products and forest-dependent communities in the Amazon region—the vast Amazonas River basin and the Guiana Shield in South America. We used the 2018 and 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and recent scientific studies to present evidence and hypotheses for changes in the ecosystem productivity and geographical distribution of plants species. We have identified species associated with highly employed forest products exhibiting reducing populations, mainly linked with deforestation and selective logging. Changes in species composition along with a decline of valuable species have been observed in the eastern, central, and southern regions of the Brazilian Amazon, suggesting accelerated biodiversity loss. Over 1 billion native trees and palms are being lost every two years, causing economic losses estimated between US$1–17 billion. A decrease in native plant species can be abrupt and both temporary or persistent for over 20 years, leading to reduced economic opportunities for forest-dependent communities. Science and technology investments are considered promising in implementing agroforestry systems recovering deforested and degraded lands, which could engage companies that use forest products due to supply chain advantages.

A spatial statistical approach for identifying population structuring of marine fish species: European sprat as a case study

AbstractMany marine fish species are widely distributed over large areas. Failing to acknowledge that such species may be composed of distinct populations may result in overestimation of the stock's true harvest potential. To avoid overexploitation, ways to identify population structuring are therefore needed. In this study, we developed and applied a statistical approach to identify biologically relevant population boundaries for a widely distributed marine fish species, European sprat (Sprattus sprattus). Specifically, we compiled and standardized multiple trawl-survey data sets and used a range of statistical tools to assess whether the current management boundaries adequately account for potential population structuring. Our results demonstrate regional differences in spatial abundance patterns, temporal dynamics and population demographics. These findings are in line with recent genetic studies of sprat, indicating reproductive isolation between the Baltic Sea/Kattegat and a larger cluster containing the North-, Irish-, Celtic Sea, and Bay of Biscay. Since relying on routinely collected survey data, our statistical approach can be a cost-effective complement to population genetic methods for detecting population structuring. These can be used to guide spatial management efforts and ensure sustainable exploitation, especially under climate change and the expected changes in species distributions across current management borders.

Biogeography and habitat preferences of red wood ants of the Formica rufa group (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Finland, based on citizen science data

Red wood ants (RWA) of the Formica rufa group are ecosystem engineers and important species in boreal and temperate forests. However, the permanent and temporal loss of forest habitats is a serious threat to their existence and is likely to increase with climate change. Due to the current threat of losing species, quick actions are needed. Reported here is the biogeography, relative abundance and habitat preferences of five species of RWA in Finland based on citizen science data. Species that occur in the lowlands of the Alps also occur throughout the southern parts of Finland. Only two of the five species, F. aquilonia Yarrow, 1955 and F. lugubris Zetterstedt, 1838, were common throughout the country, including northern Lapland. As their name suggests, RWAs occur mostly in forests and forest edges, but they also sometimes inhabit open or semi-open yards, mires and meadows. The most forest-specialist species is F. aquilonia and the least F. rufa Linnaeus, 1761. Surprisingly, the meadow wood ant F. pratensis Retzius, 1783 is the second most forest dwelling species, however, its preference for forest edges is clearly higher than for forest interiors. Based on current data, F. rufa may be the most tolerant of living close to buildings as its relative abundance in yards was much higher than that of the other species. The data obtained on distributions and relative abundances could be compared in the future with the results of similar surveys to detect changes in species distributions, relative abundances and habitat preferences.

Northward expansion of fire-adaptative vegetation in future warming

Fire frequency and intensity are increasing due to higher temperatures and more droughts. The distributions of fuels (vegetation in natural conditions) are also changing in response to climate change. The vegetation in cold environments such as high latitudes and high altitudes is found to move upward or northward due to global warming. However, few studies have investigated the distribution changes of fire adaptive species in warm environments. This study estimated and compared the distributions of a typical fuelwood, the Eucalyptus globulus, under different climate scenarios. The species distribution modeling techniques were adopted to estimate the current distributions of the Eucalyptus globulus and the future distributions under scenarios of both SSP245 and SSP585 in 2060. Results show that the probability of the existence of the Eucalyptus globulus in the Northern Hemisphere increases significantly (p < 0.001) under both SSP245 and SSP585, especially in North America and Europe. However, the probability in the Southern Hemisphere decreases. The distribution of the Eucalyptus globulus expands in the mid-latitude (40 N–60 N) of the Northern Hemisphere. High carbon emissions contribute to the boost of the establishment of the Eucalyptus globulus in the Northern Hemisphere. These findings demonstrate that the fire adaptive species shows the tendency of shifting northward in response to climate change, highlighting the challenge of northward expansion of fires in future warming.