Clarifying the changing trends and driving factors of soil respiration in fragile habitats under the background of climate change is of great significance for understanding the regional carbon cycle and the conversion of ecosystem carbon source and sink functions. This research focused on grasslands that had been naturally abandoned and restored for 12 years in the loess hilly region of northern Shaanxi, using an open top chamber (OTC) and artificially increased natural rainfall to simulate climate warming and precipitation increase and their interaction. Furthermore, we used a combination of field monitoring and indoor analysis to explore soil water content, temperature, and nutrient characteristics and the response characteristics of soil respiration rate to warming and increased precipitation and further analyzed the key factors driving changes in soil respiration. The results showed that:① warming (W) significantly increased the 5 cm soil temperature, with an average increase of 1.34℃ throughout the sampling year, whereas the increased precipitation (P50%) treatment significantly reduced the 5 cm soil temperature, reducing the average 5 cm soil temperature during the entire sampling year by 0.88℃ and increasing the soil water content (SWC) at the same time. The SWC was 13.12% and 16.45% higher than that in the control (CK), respectively. In addition, compared with that in the CK, the treatment of warming and increased precipitation (WP50%) not only increased soil temperature but also increased SWC; in general, the increase in temperature and precipitation played an antagonistic effect on the influence of soil temperature and humidity. ② P50% significantly increased the content of soil organic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and labile organic carbon, causing changes in the soil stoichiometric ratio and the distribution characteristics of labile-recalcitrant carbon components, whereas W did not have a significant impact on organic carbon. In addition, soil total nitrogen and phosphorus and available nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients were not significantly different between treatments. ③ P50% significantly increased the Rs rate, and the effect of W on the soil respiration rate mainly depended on the seasonal precipitation and temperature. It was demonstrated that warming in winter and seasons with abundant rainfall had a significant promotion effect on the soil respiration rate. The exponential fitting of soil respiration rate and 5 cm soil temperature found that the soil respiration temperature sensitivity (Q10) was the highest under the precipitation treatment, reaching 1.68, whereas the Q10 was the lowest under the warming treatment (1.50). ④ Linear regression analysis showed that soil organic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, and labile organic carbon were all significantly positively correlated with soil respiration rate. Variation partitioning analysis showed that soil temperature, SWC, and nutrient characteristics explained 64.43% of the variation in soil respiration rate. The soil temperature and SWC were the main controlling factors of the change in soil respiration rate, with an explanation degree of 31.16%. Correlation analysis also showed that there was a significant correlation between SWC, soil temperature and respiration rate, soil organic carbon, dissolved organic carbon, labile organic carbon, C:N, and C:P. In summary, the climate prediction of abandoned grassland tending toward warm temperatures and high humidity in the loess hilly region will significantly affect the regional hydrothermal environment and nutrient characteristics, change the distribution ratio of soil labile and recalcitrant carbon, and promote regional soil carbon emissions. The analysis results showed that the key factor driving the change in soil respiration rate of abandoned grassland in the loess hilly region was soil temperature and SWC characteristics.