Changes In Seasonal Precipitation Research Articles

Linking Historical and Projected Trends in Extreme Precipitation with Cumulative Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and intensity in response to higher global temperatures, augmenting societal exposure to these events. While the magnitude of projected changes in extremes varies considerably among future emission scenarios, a large part of this uncertainty is driven by the choice of scenario, rather than by the climate response to a particular emission scenario. A growing body of research has identified robust linear relationships between climate changes and cumulative carbon emissions; for global average temperature change, this relationship is known as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). Extensions of the TCRE framework to other variables, such as regional and seasonal temperature and precipitation changes, have also shown to be effective, raising the possibility that changes in weather extremes could be linked to cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Here, we estimate changes in historical and projected trends in one-day (Rx1day) and five-day maximum precipitation (Rx5day) events as a function of cumulative carbon emissions across a range of future emission scenarios and global climate models. Our results show that median Rx1day and Rx5day generally increases linearly with increasing cumulative emissions, consistent with studies that have previously employed the TCRE framework to estimate changes in precipitation extremes, as well as other climate indicators. Overall, we show that a linear response to cumulative CO2 emissions is a good approximation for both historical and future trends in precipitation extremes.

Multimodal climate change prediction in a monsoon climate

Abstract The uncertainty in the climate projection arising from various climate models is very common, and averaging such results poses a risk of underestimation or sometimes overestimation of impact in magnitude and frequency. Further, the performance of various climate models in monsoon degrades drastically due to the skewed nature. Under these circumstances, the performance of the climate model in the monsoon and non-monsoon periods is critical for accurate assessment. A multimodal approach has been used in the present work to quantify the uncertainty involved in the climate model using reliability ensemble averaging (REA). Based on AR6 of IPCC, the ensemble of 26 global climate models (GCMs) was used to evaluate the model performance and possible change in seasonal precipitation in four cities with distinct climate conditions, namely, Coimbatore, Rajkot, Udaipur, and Siliguri. The results show that non-monsoon and monsoon rainfall are expected to increase in all the regions. Most of the models perform poorly in simulating monsoon climate, especially in the monsoon period and are highly inconsistent spatially. The study also finds that the model performance is largely linked to the ratio of natural variability and mean.

Future Projections of Rainfall for Tamil Nadu from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project- 6 (CMIP6)

Precipitation is a crucial input for agriculture and living things in the world, which changes drastically under a warmer climate due to climate change. Hence, the study was carried out to project the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation based on the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM6) model. In the present study, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase six (CMIP6) datasets were used for two SSP scenarios: SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 and three-time slices for the future viz., near (2021–2050), mid (2051–2080) and end-century (2081–2099) and base period (1991–2020) dataset obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) was used to compare with the future climate over Tamil Nadu. The result revealed that the highest positive mean deviations in annual (81%), SWM (21%), NEM (79%) and summer (163%) were observed in the projected precipitation under the SSP5-8.5 scenario during the Near, mid, near and mid-century respectively. For winter, SSP2-4.5 showed the highest mean deviation of 122% in the near century. According to the three future time scale simulations for the twenty-first century, annual rainfall is predicted to increase by 81% in the near future and 19% in the mid-century, while it is expected to decline by 1.5% at the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, rainfall would increase by 1% in the near future, decrease by 30% in the end century and decrease by 30.5% in the mid-century. From the result, it is concluded that there would be an increase in heavy precipitation occurrences at the near, mid and end of the 21st century under both the SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios. These findings might be helpful in framing future agricultural water management regulations to deal with threats from heavy precipitation and researchers to study precipitation changes at the global level.

Regional climate change and possible causes over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

The Three Gorges Project, the largest hydroelectric project in the world, has attracted widespread attention regarding its impact on regional climate. However, existing studies on the climate effects of the Three Gorges Project construction are not sufficient due to limited data accumulation. In this study, we analyzed the annual and seasonal trend changes in temperature, precipitation, and humidity over the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA) based on long-term meteorological stations data, remote sensing data, and reanalysis products. Observation minus reanalysis method (OMR) was used to reveal possible impacts of land cover changes on climate changes. Major results indicated that the TGRA experienced an overall warming trend for both annual and seasonal variations, with greater rising trends in the upstream. Except for autumn, the relative humidity of most regions mainly showed significant downward trends, indicating an overall drying trend in the TGRA. There was insignificant change in total precipitation and precipitable water vapor, with the largest variation observed during the summer. Although there were small differences among these datasets, their results of climate changes showed good consistency overall. In addition, the results of OMR indicated that land cover changes mainly had a warming and drying effect on the middle and upper reaches, and a cooling and moistening effect on the lower reaches of the TGRA. This may be due to the impact of land cover changes on the surface energy balance, thus affected temperature and humidity. The study has important reference value for understanding the climate changes in the TGRA and the climate effects brought about by large-scale engineering construction.

Regional difference in precipitation seasonality over China from CMIP6 projections

AbstractBased on historical simulations and projections under two scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) provided by 32 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), we investigate the future precipitation seasonality changes over China by two indices, the dimensionless seasonality index (DSI) and the relative seasonality index (SI), and the associated physical mechanisms by moisture budget diagnosis. The results show that relative to the baseline period 1995–2014, the DSI is enhanced across almost all of China at the end of the 21st century, with stronger magnitudes in southeastern China and the southern Tibetan Plateau and weaker magnitudes in northwestern China, and national‐mean enhancements are 15% (7%–21%) and 23% (15%–29%) for the multimodel median (25th–75th percentile range across models) under the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios, respectively. Projected SI changes show large regional differences, with decreases in northern China and increase in southern China, leading to little change for the national mean. The DSI and SI changes are associated with uneven distributions of changes in absolute amounts and relative proportions of precipitation among seasons, respectively. Further analysis reveals that the contributions of different moisture budget terms to precipitation changes vary across seasons, resulting in changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation and thus the DSI and SI changes. Specifically, the thermodynamic component of vertical moisture advection primarily determines the greater magnitude of increased precipitation in summer than in winter in most of China, resulting in the DSI change. The reduction in residual term dominates the diminished winter precipitation in southern China, leading to more precipitation concentrated in summer for given annual precipitation and thus the intensification in SI, while the opposite holds true in northern China.

Impact of bias correction on climate change signals over central Europe and the Iberian Peninsula

Vegetation models for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies require spatially high-resolution climate input data in which the error with respect to observations has been previously corrected. To quantify the impact of bias correction, we examine the effects of quantile-mapping bias correction on the climate change signal (CCS) of climate, extremes, and biological variables from the convective regional climate model COSMO-CLM and two dynamic vegetation models (LPJ-GUESS and CARAIB). COSMO-CLM was driven and analyzed at 3 km horizontal resolution over Central Europe (CE) and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) for the transient period 1980–2070 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Bias-corrected and uncorrected climate simulations served as input to run the dynamic vegetation models over Wallonia. Main result of the impact of bias correction on the climate is a reduction of seasonal absolute precipitation by up to −55% with respect to uncorrected simulations. Yet, seasonal climate changes of precipitation and also temperature are marginally affected by bias correction. Main result of the impact of bias correction on changes in extremes is a robust spatial mean CCS of climate extreme indices over both domains. Yet, local biases can both over- and underestimate changes in these indices and be as large as the raw CCS. Changes in extremely wet days are locally enhanced by bias correction by more than 100%. Droughts in southern IP are exacerbated by bias correction, which increases changes in consecutive dry days by up to 14 days/year. Changes in growing season length in CE are affected by quantile mapping due to local biases ranging from 24 days/year in western CE to −24 days/year in eastern CE. The increase of tropical nights and summer days in both domains is largely affected by bias correction at the grid scale because of local biases ranging within ±14 days/year. Bias correction of this study strongly reduces the precipitation amount which has a strong impact on the results of the vegetation models with a reduced vegetation biomass and increases in net primary productivity. Nevertheless, there are large differences in the results of the two applied vegetation models.

Water and sediment pollution of intensively used surface waters during a drought period — a case study in Central Northern Namibia

Semiarid regions are often affected by water scarcity and poor water quality. Seasonal changes in precipitation and drought events increase the pressure of use on water bodies and their pollution. In Central Northern Namibia, a high seasonal intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation caused a 5-year lasting drought period. In the semiarid region, ephemeral channels and water pans represent the main water source, besides the institutionalized water supply. No systematic analysis of its quality has been conducted so far. The states of the surface waters at the end of the dry season in 2017 and the end of the rainy seasons in 2018 and 2019 were characterized by the analysis of physical–chemical parameters, focusing on usability. The first results show coarse contamination of the waters, which results in high turbidity values. Salt concentrations, such as Ca2+ and Na+, greatly increased due to evaporation. Al is present in high concentrations in solid and liquid phases, which indicates direct anthropogenic pollution. Spatial differences are evident in the study area and based on the precipitation gradient, land use, and population density. The waters cannot be used as drinking water without prior treatment.

Precipitation timing and soil substrate drive phenology and fitness of Arabidopsis thaliana in a Mediterranean environment

Abstract In Mediterranean climates, the timing of seasonal rains determines germination, flowering phenology and fitness. As climate change alters seasonal precipitation patterns, it is important to ask how these changes will affect the phenology and fitness of plant populations. We addressed this question experimentally with the annual plant species Arabidopsis thaliana. In a first experiment, we manipulated the date of rainfall onset and recorded germination phenology on sand and soil substrates. In a second experiment, we manipulated germination date, growing season length and mid‐season drought to measure their effects on flowering time and fitness. Within each experiment, we manipulated seed dormancy and flowering time using multilocus near‐isogenic lines segregating strong and weak alleles of the seed dormancy gene DOG1 and the flowering time gene FRI. We synthesized germination phenology data from the first experiment with fitness functions from the second experiment to project population fitness under different seasonal rainfall scenarios. Germination phenology tracked rainfall onset but was slower and more variable on sand than on soil. Many seeds dispersed on sand in spring and summer delayed germination until the cooler temperatures of autumn. The high‐dormancy DOG1 allele also prevented immediate germination in spring and summer. Germination timing strongly affected plant fitness. Fecundity was highest in the October germination cohort and declined in spring germinants. The late flowering FRI allele had lower fecundity, especially in early fall and spring cohorts. Projections of population fitness revealed that: (1) Later onset of autumn rains will negatively affect population fitness. (2) Slow, variable germination on sand buffers populations against fitness impacts of variable spring and summer rainfall. (3) Seasonal selection favours high dormancy and early flowering genotypes in a Mediterranean climate with hot dry summers. The high‐dormancy DOG1 allele delayed germination of spring‐dispersed fresh seeds until more favourable early fall conditions, resulting in higher projected population fitness. These findings suggest that Mediterranean annual plant populations are vulnerable to changes in seasonal precipitation, especially in California where rainfall onset is already occurring later. The fitness advantage of highly dormant, early flowering genotypes helps explain the prevalence of this strategy in Mediterranean populations. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Defining the Angolan Highlands Water Tower, a 40 plus-year precipitation budget of the headwater catchments of the Okavango Delta

Angola is a source of many major rivers in southern Africa and is referred to as the “water tower” of the region. The lack of a defined area delineating the Angolan Highlands water tower (AHWT) limits the conservation of this important freshwater source. This study hydrologically defines the boundary of the AHWT as areas > 1274 m above mean sea level within the Central Bié Plateau of Angola. Using the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data, this study provides a 41-year precipitation budget of the AHWT and surrounding basins. Between 1981 and 2021, the average annual precipitation over the AHWT was 1112 mm and the gross annual average precipitation volume was approximately 423 km3 over an area of 380,382 km2. The AHWT is the southern source of the Congo Basin, the western source of the Zambezi Basin, and the sole water source of the endorheic Okavango Basin and Okavango Delta, a UNESCO World Heritage Site. On average, approximately 133 km3 (92.36%) of the gross annual precipitation volume for the headwater Cuito and Cubango catchments of the Okavango River is lost before reaching the Okavango Delta. Estimates of the annual flooding of the Okavango Delta during a 35-year period (1985–2019) were correlated to precipitation in the headwater catchments. Correlation coefficients are stronger for the entire rainfall season (0.76) and early rainfall season (0.62) for the combined Cuito–Cubango catchment in comparison to late rainfall season (0.50), which suggests that the antecedent conditions (first and second flood pulse) during the early rainfall season allows for greater Okavango Delta flood inundation. The correlation coefficients between the Cubango (0.72) and Cuito (0.78) Rivers and annual flood inundation are not significantly different (P > 0.05); however, these rivers have fundamental hydrological differences that influence the functioning of the Okavango Delta. The Cubango River, described as a flushing system, has much steeper gradient, more compact and shallow soils and flows faster with significant rapids, whereas the peatland rich, absorbent, seepage-driven baseflow of the Cuito River sustains the Okavango Delta during the dry season. The dynamics of seasonal precipitation, hydrology and climate change in the AHWT have important repercussions on water budgets, food security and biodiversity throughout southern Africa, requiring continued collaboration between countries to ensure that future development is sustainable.

Spatiotemporal Precipitation Trends and Associated Large-Scale Teleconnections in Northern Pakistan

The effects of climate change are unparalleled in magnitude, ranging from changing weather patterns that endanger food production to increasing sea levels that increase the likelihood of catastrophic flooding. Therefore, determining the extent of such variations on regional and local scales is imperative. We used monthly precipitation data from 25 meteorological stations in northern Pakistan (NP) to document the observed changes in seasonal and annual precipitation. The station density in the NP is small and unevenly distributed; therefore, ERA-5 reanalysis data were used to supplement the observed dataset to assess the spatial trends in NP. The non-parametric Mann–Kendall (MK), Sen’s Slope estimator (SSE), and Sequential Mann–Kendall (SQMK) tests were performed to assess the trends. In addition, the wavelet analysis technique was used to determine the association of precipitation with various oceanic indices from 1960 to 2016. Results indicate that maximum precipitation was shown in the annual and summer seasons. In NP, annual, winter, spring, and summer precipitation declined, while an increase in autumn was observed at a rate of 0.43 mm/decade between 1989 and 2016. The spatial trends for observed and ERA-5 reanalysis datasets were almost similar in winter, spring, and autumn; however, some disagreement was observed in both datasets in the summer and annual precipitation trends in NP during 1960–2016. Between 1989 and 2016, summer and annual precipitation increased significantly in Region III. However, seasonal and annual precipitation decreased in NP between 1960 and 2016. Moreover, there were no prominent trends in annual precipitation until the mid-1980s, but an apparent increase from 1985 onwards. Annual precipitation increased in all elevations except at the 500–1000 m zone. The ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) shared notable interannual coherences among all indices above 16–64 months. Inter-decadal coherence with the ENSO, AO (Arctic Oscillation), and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) in NP for 128 months and above. Generally, AO, AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation), and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) exhibited less coherence with precipitation in NP. The regression of seasonal and annual precipitation revealed that winter and spring precipitation levels had higher linear regression with the AO and ENSO, respectively, while both the AO and ENSO also dominated at the annual scale. Similarly, the IOD and PDO indices had a higher influence in summer precipitation. The findings may help water resource managers and climate researchers develop a contingency plan for better water resource management policies in the face of changing climate change in Pakistan, particularly in NP.

Land Subsidence in a Coastal City Based on SBAS-InSAR Monitoring: A Case Study of Zhuhai, China

The superimposed effects of sea level rise caused by global warming and land subsidence seriously threaten the sustainable development of coastal cities. In recent years, an important coastal city in China, Zhuhai, has been suffering from severe and widespread land subsidence; however, the characteristics, triggers, and vulnerability assessment of ground subsidence in Zhuhai are still unclear. Therefore, we used the SBAS-InSAR technique to process 51 Sentinel-1A images to monitor the land subsidence in Zhuhai during the period from August 2016 to June 2019. The results showed that there was extensive land subsidence in the study area, with a maximum rate of −109.75 mm/yr. The surface had sequentially undergone a process of minor uplift and decline fluctuation, sharp settlement, and stable subsidence. The distribution and evolution of land subsidence were controlled by tectonic fractures and triggered by the thickness of soft soil, the intensity of groundwater development, and the seasonal changes of atmospheric precipitation. The comprehensive index method and the analytic hierarchy process were applied to derive extremely high subsidence vulnerability in several village communities and some traffic arteries in Zhuhai. Our research provides a theoretical basis for urban disaster prevention in Zhuhai and the construction planning of coastal cities around the world.

Trophic status of a coastal lagoon - marine harbor system: Potential outwelling rates to the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef southern region

Eutrophication is still a serious problem in many coastal areas, including the tropics, where river discharges of nutrients is usually high. The ecological stability and ecosystem services of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef System (MBRS), the world's second-largest coral reef system, suffer a generalized impact by riverine discharge of sediment and organic and inorganic nutrients, which may lead to coastal eutrophication and a coral-macroalgal phase shift. However, few data exist on the MRBS coastal zone status, particularly in Honduras. Here, two in situ sampling campaigns were carried out (May 2017 and January 2018) in the Alvarado Lagoon and Puerto Cortés Bay (Honduras). Measurements included water column nutrients, chlorophyll-a (Chla), particulate organic and inorganic matter and net community metabolism, completed with satellite images analysis. The lagoon and bay environments are ecologically different systems and present different sensitivities to seasonal changes in precipitation as shown by the multivariate analysis. Nonetheless, net community production and respiration rates were neither different spatially, nor seasonally. In addition, both environments were highly eutrophic as shown by the TRIX index. Thus, the Puerto Cortés system represents an important source of dissolved nutrients and particulate matter to the coastal zone. Even though offshore, water quality, based on estimated outwelling rates from the Puerto Cortés system to the coastal waters of the southern MRBS region, improved considerably, concentrations of Chla and nutrients remained higher than those typically measured in non-polluted coral reefs in the Caribbean region and the suggested threshold values. In situ monitoring and assessment of these aspects are crucial to evaluate the ecological functioning of and threats on the MBRS, and elaborate and implement adequate policies for integrated management given its regional and global importance.

Seasonal precipitation and continentality drive bimodal growth in Mediterranean forests

Tree phenology is sensitive to climate warming and changes in seasonal precipitation. Long xylogenesis records are scarce, thus limiting our ability to analyse how radial growth responds to climate variability. Alternatively, process-based growth models can be used to simulate intra-annual growth dynamics and to better understand why growth bimodality varies along temperature and precipitation gradients. We used the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) growth model to analyse the main climatic drivers of growth bimodality in eight trees and shrubs conifers (four pines and four junipers) across Spain. We selected eleven sites with different continentality degree and spring/autumn precipitation ratios since we expected to find pronounced bimodal growth in less continental sites with spring and autumn precipitation peaks. The VS model successfully simulated annual growth rates at all sites as a function of daily temperature and soil moisture data. Bimodal growth patterns clustered into less continental sites showing low spring/autumn precipitation ratios. This finding agrees with observed climate-growth associations showing that growth was enhanced by wet-cool winter-to-spring conditions, but also by wet autumn conditions in the most bimodal sites. We observed a stronger growth bimodality in pines compared to junipers. We discuss the spatial variability of climate drivers in bimodality growth pattern and how increasing continentality and shifts in seasonal precipitation could affect growth. Bimodality could be an advantageous response to overcome summer drought in Mediterranean forests. The ability of some species to reactivate growth during autumn might determine their capacity to withstand increasing summer aridity.

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind.

Selecting regional climate models based on their skill could give more credible precipitation projections over the complex Southeast Asia region

This study focuses on future seasonal changes in daily precipitation using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments-Southeast Asia ensemble (CORDEX-SEA). Projections using this RCM ensemble generally show a larger inter-model spread in winter than in summer, with higher significance and model agreement in summer over most land areas. We evaluate how well the RCMs simulate climatological precipitation using two skill metrics. To extract reliable projections, two sub-ensembles of ‘better’ and ‘worse’ performing models are selected and their respective projections compared. We find projected intensification of summer precipitation over northern SEA, which is robust across RCMs. On the contrary, in the southern part of SEA, the ‘worse’ ensemble projects a significant and widespread decrease in summer rainfall intensity whereas a slight intensification is projected by the ‘better’ ensemble. Further exploration of inter-model differences in future changes reveals that these are mainly explained by changes in moisture supply from large-scale sources (i.e., moisture convergence) with enhanced effects from local sources (i.e., evapotranspiration). The ‘worse’ models project greater changes in atmospheric circulation compared with the ‘better’ models, which can explain part of the uncertainty in projections for daily precipitation over the CORDEX-SEA domain. Hence, our findings might help assess more reliable projections over the SEA region by selecting models based on a two-step model evaluation: the ability of models to simulate historical daily precipitation and their performance in reproducing key physical processes of the regional climate.

Seasonal variations and controlling factors of speleothem multi-proxy in southeastern China: Implications for the reconstruction of precipitation seasonality

Precipitation in southeastern China exhibits strong seasonal variability, which significantly impacts local agricultural production and social development. However, the reconstruction of precipitation seasonality has been limited by the lack of precisely dated high-resolution paleoclimatic records. This study presents seasonal-scale multi-proxy records (trace elements: Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca Ba/Ca and stable isotopes: δ18O and δ13C) of a modern (1810–2009 AD) annually laminated stalagmite (EM1) from E’Mei Cave, Jiangxi Province in southeastern China. Comparative analysis of observation data with meteorological and simulation data shows that the seasonal variation of EM1 δ18O, derived from precipitation δ18O, is mainly controlled by the large-scale circulation and precipitation seasonality on an interannual timescale. The seasonal EM1 δ18O variation is controlled by the seasonal precipitation δ18O, however, the most negative values of EM1 δ18O are higher than those of simulated calcite δ18O and the average amplitude of the seasonal variation of EM1 δ18O (∼1.93‰) is much smaller than that of simulated calcite δ18O (∼9.72‰) because of evaporation and mixing of waters in the epikarst system. On the decadal timescales, variations of δ13C, Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, and Ba/Ca were found to be strongly correlated, consistent with the variation of the local dry/flood index, indicating a common influencing factor of local hydroclimate change. However, their seasonal phase relationships vary between strong and weak summer monsoon conditions. We find a strong covariation between Mg/Ca and δ13C with Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca during the strong monsoon period (1951–1976), and they are in antiphase with seasonal δ18O variation. However, the seasonal variations of Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca transformed to dominantly antiphase with Mg/Ca and δ13C during the weak monsoon period (1977–1991 AD). Therefore, we suggest that Mg/Ca and δ13C are dominantly controlled by the local hydroclimate changes on seasonal timescales but Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca might have been affected by complex processes in the epikarst under different hydrothermal configuration conditions. The findings indicate the potential of the variation of the seasonal phase relationships between multi-proxy records in reconstructing precipitation seasonality changes under different hydrothermal backgrounds.

Changes in Seasonal Large-Scale Extreme Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States, 1979–2019

Abstract This study uses Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) data in each season to identify the days with the most extreme precipitation (“EP days”) in the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States between 1979 and 2019. These days are sorted according to the fraction of extreme precipitation attributed to tropical cyclone (TC), atmospheric river (AR), and extreme integrated vapor transport (IVT) influences. In winter and spring, there have been increases in seasonal precipitation from the most extreme days, associated with a combination of frequency and intensity changes. These increasing trends come primarily from atmospheric rivers. In summer and fall, there have also been large increases in precipitation on extreme days, in this case due entirely to increased event frequency. These changes come from a combination of AR, TC, and extreme IVT influences. Synoptic characteristics of AR-related EP days in winter and spring have changed significantly. In winter, there has been an amplification of the Atlantic ridge and a deepening of the upstream trough over the upper Great Plains, as well as enhanced AR detection and IVT on these days. The composite low has shifted north and intensified. In spring, the trough has weakened and 1000–500-hPa thickness has increased broadly to the south. These changes are related to changes in the large-scale flow. In winter and spring, the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) has strengthened and shifted west, leading to increased southwesterly IVT over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States. In summer, southerly IVT along the east coast has increased, and 1000–500-hPa climatological thickness has increased broadly in all seasons. Significance Statement This paper studies the days with the most extreme precipitation over the mid-Atlantic and Northeast United States in each season and finds that there have been large changes in the frequency, intensity, and characteristics of some of these days. Extreme days associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs) and tropical cyclones (TCs) have become more frequent. Precipitation on AR-related days has also become more intense in some areas. On winter extreme days associated with ARs, the pattern has become more amplified and moisture fluxes have become stronger; these changes are likely associated with strengthened high pressure over the Atlantic. Throughout all seasons, there is evidence of warming on extreme days. This is important because it adds to our understanding of how total and AR-related extreme precipitation is changing in a warming climate.

Historical spatiotemporal changes in fire danger potential across biomes

This study 1) identifies the seasons and biomes that exhibit significant (1980–2019) changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI); 2) explores what types of fire behavior potentials may be contributing to changes in fire danger potential, as quantified by the United States Energy Release Component (ERC) and the Ignition Component (IC); 3) provides spatiotemporal insight on how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential are responding in relation to changes in seasonal precipitation totals and seasonal mean air temperature across biomes. Time series of these fire potentials, as well as seasonal mean temperature, and seasonal precipitation totals are generated using data from the 0.25° ECMWF spatial resolution Reanalysis 5th Generation (ERA5) and the Climatic Research Unit gridded Time Series (CRU TS). The Mann-Kendall test is then applied to identify significant spatiotemporal trends across each biome. Results indicate that the September–November season (SON) exhibits the greatest rate of increase in fire danger potential, followed by the June–August season (JJA), December, January–February season (DJF), and March–May season (MAM), and this is predominant over the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forest Biome, as well as all vegetation types of the temperate biomes. Similarly, the temperate biomes experience the greatest rate of increase in fire intensity potential and ignition potential, but prevalent during the DJF and MAM seasons. Furthermore, there is a significant positive correlation between fire danger potential and seasonal mean air temperature during JJA in the Northern Hemisphere for the temperate biomes in North America and Europe, as well as the Tropical and Subtropical biomes in Africa. Our analysis provides quantitative insight as to how fire danger potential and fire behavior potential have been responding to changes in seasonal mean temperature and seasonal precipitation totals across different ecoregions around the world.

Spatiotemporal variability of dissolved oxygen in response to morphological state in a central California coast bar-built estuary

Bar-built estuaries (BBEs) or intermittently closed/open lagoons (ICOLs) are common to coastal regions experiencing episodic river flows and seasonal precipitation changes along the US West Coast. Unique to Mediterranean climates, BBEs have a hydrologic mixing regime and variation in water chemistry characteristics resulting from seasonal breaches and closures of their mouth and watershed inputs. This study observes spatiotemporal variability in dissolved oxygen (DO) in a small bar-built estuary in Carmel, CA during variable morphological states. For this study, field measurements were collected using dissolved oxygen loggers during a seasonal transition from fully open to fully closed states to determine the spatiotemporal variability of dissolved oxygen within the three main branches of Carmel River Lagoon. The data collected spanned a 6-month (February to August 2020) period, covering several transitions from fully open to intermittently closed to fully closed mouth state. This study did not document any periods within the lagoon when dissolved oxygen concentrations were uniformly below water quality objective levels (5 mg/L) suggesting that during the entire period of this investigation, portions of the lagoon supported high oxygen conditions while also supporting a variety of other water chemistry characteristic zones, unique to BBEs. The dissolved oxygen fluctuations were closely tied to the temporal effects of environmental forcing (river discharge) on the seasonal transition of river mouth morphological state from fully open to fully closed. The main conclusion is that during open mouth states, relative DO variability in the bottom of the main channel is low and more similar to surface waters, indicating mixing, and during closed mouth states vertical location in the water column matters more. Furthermore, variability between sites suggests single point observations of DO cannot accurately represent the distribution of DO within a BBE.

Dual Asymmetric Response of Leaf-Level CO2Fixation to Changes in Seasonal Precipitation Distribution in a Coastal Marsh

Photosynthetic characteristics of dominant plant species are widely used as indicators of ecosystem responses to global environmental changes such as precipitation change. How different plant species respond physiologically to seasonal precipitation change in coastal marshes is largely unclear. Spring is a critical stage for plant colonization and growth, and a field experiment was conducted to study the response in leaf carbon fixation of dominant plant species to 5 seasonal precipitation distribution treatments [+73%, +56%, control (CK), −56%, and −73%] in coastal marshes. Results showed a dual asymmetric response of the maximum photosynthetic rate (Pn max) of dominant species (Phragmites australis) to spring precipitation distribution (SPD), showing thatPn maxwas more sensitive to increased than decreased SPD, and the effect size of increased SPD on it was approximately 2.4 times greater than decreased SPD under the −56% to +56% precipitation ranges. On the contrary, when the precipitation distribution range was further extended to ±73%,Pn maxmore sensitive to decreased than increased SPD, and the effect size of decreased SPD on it was approximately 2 times greater than increased SPD. The structural equation modeling revealed that the effect of SPD onPn maxis primarily mediated by the direct effect of soil salinity andgsand the indirect effect of soil water content, which determined the magnitude direction of the effect of SPD onPn max. Our findings demonstrate that soil salinity is the main controlling factor for the carbon sequestration of leaves under SPD in a coastal marsh. This leads to adaptive strategies for functional traits of dominant species, which, in turn, influence leaf-level CO2fixation and the carbon sink function of the entire ecosystem.