Changes In Sea Ice Cover Research Articles

Future trends of arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations

Recent climate change in the Arctic has been rapid and dramatic, leading to numerous physical and societal consequences. Many studies have investigated these ongoing and projected future changes across a range of climatic variables, but surprisingly little attention has been paid to wind speed, despite its known importance for sea ice motion, ocean wave heights, and coastal erosion. Here we analyzed future trends in Arctic surface wind speed and its relationship with sea ice cover among CMIP5 global climate models. There is a strong anticorrelation between climatological sea ice concentration and wind speed in the early 21st-century reference climate, and the vast majority of models simulate widespread future strengthening of surface winds over the Arctic Ocean (annual multi-model mean trend of up to 0.8 m s−1 or 13%). Nearly all models produce an inverse relationship between projected changes in sea ice cover and wind speed, such that grid cells with virtually total ice loss almost always experience stronger winds. Consistent with the largest regional ice losses during autumn and winter, the greatest increases in future wind speeds are expected during these two seasons, with localized strengthening up to 23%. As in other studies, stronger surface winds cannot be attributed to tighter pressure gradients but rather to some combination of weakened atmospheric stability and reduced surface roughness as the surface warms and melts. The intermodel spread of wind speed changes, as expressed by the two most contrasting model results, appears to stem from differences in the treatment of surface roughness.

Contrasting northern and southern European winter climate trends during the Last Interglacial

Abstract The Last Interglacial (LIG; 130–115 ka) is an important test bed for climate science as an instance of significantly warmer than preindustrial global temperatures. However, LIG climate patterns remain poorly resolved, especially for winter, affected by a suite of strong feedbacks such as changes in sea-ice cover in the high latitudes. We present a synthesis of winter temperature and precipitation proxy data from the Atlantic seaboard of Europe, spanning from southern Iberia to the Arctic. Our data reveal distinct, opposite latitudinal climate trends, including warming winters seen in the European Arctic while cooling and drying occurred in southwest Europe over the LIG. Climate model simulations for 130 and 120 ka suggest these contrasting climate patterns were affected by a shift toward an atmospheric circulation regime with an enhanced meridional pressure gradient and strengthened midlatitude westerlies, leading to a strong reduction in precipitation across southern Europe.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater in CMIP6 Ensembles: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

AbstractThe Arctic has undergone dramatic changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in seven climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their performance over the historical period (1980–2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5. Similar to CMIP5, substantial differences exist between the models' Arctic mean states and the magnitude of their 21st century storage and flux changes. In the historical simulation, most models disagree with observations over 1980–2000. In both future scenarios, the models show an increase in liquid freshwater storage and a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5‐8.5 than SSP1‐2.6. The liquid fluxes are driven by both volume and salinity changes, with models exhibiting a change in sign (relative to 1980–2000) of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening by mid‐century, little change in the Bering Strait flux, and increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on the behavior of the liquid freshwater export in the early‐to‐mid 21st century due to differences in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux.

Analysis of narwhal tusks reveals lifelong feeding ecology and mercury exposure

The ability of animals to respond to changes in their environment is critical to their persistence. In the Arctic, climate change and mercury exposure are two of the most important environmental threats for top predators.1-3 Rapid warming is causing precipitous sea-ice loss, with consequences on the distribution, composition, and dietary ecology of species4-7 and, thus, exposure to food-borne mercury.8 Current understanding of global change and pollution impacts on Arctic wildlife relies on single-time-point individual data representing a snapshot in time. These data often lack comprehensive temporal resolution and overlook the cumulative lifelong nature of stressors as well as individual variation. To overcome these challenges, we explore the unique capacity of narwhal tusks to characterize chronological lifetime biogeochemical profiles, allowing for investigations of climate-induced dietary changes and contaminant trends. Using temporal patterns of stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) and mercury concentrations in annually deposited dentine growth layer groups in 10 tusks from Northwest Greenland (1962-2010), we show surprising plasticity in narwhal feeding ecology likely resulting from climate-induced changes in sea-ice cover, biological communities, and narwhal migration. Dietary changes consequently impacted mercury exposure primarily through trophic magnification effects. Mercury increased log-linearly over the study period, albeit with an unexpected rise in recent years, likely caused by increased emissions and/or greater bioavailability in a warmer, ice-free Arctic. Our findings are consistent with an emerging pattern in the Arctic of reduced sea-ice leading to changes in the migration, habitat use, food web, and contaminant exposure in Arctic top predators.

Penguins and Seals Transport Limiting Nutrients Between Offshore Pelagic and Coastal Regions of Antarctica Under Changing Sea Ice

Large animals such as sea birds and marine mammals can transport limiting nutrients between different regions of the ocean, thereby stimulating and enhancing productivity. In Antarctica this process is influenced by formation and breakup of sea ice and its influence on the feeding behaviour of predators and their prey. We used analyses of bioactive metals (for example, Fe, Co, Mn), macronutrients (for example, N) and stable isotopes (δ13C and δ15N) in the excreta of Adelie (Pygoscelis adeliae) and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) as well as Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) from multiple sites, among multiple years (2012–2014) to resolve how changes in sea ice dynamics, as indicated by MODIS satellite images, were coincident with prey switching and likely changes in nutrient fluxes between the offshore pelagic and coastal zones. We also sampled excreta of the south polar skua (Stercorarius maccormicki), which preys on penguins and scavenges the remains of both penguins and seals. We found strong coincidence of isotopic evidence for prey switching, between euphausiids (Euphausia superba and E. crystallorophias) and pelagic/cryopelagic fishes (for example, Pleuragramma antarcticum) in penguins, and between pelagic/cryopelagic fishes and Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in Weddell seals, with changes in sea ice cover among years. Further, prey switching was strongly linked to changes in the concentrations of nutrients (Fe and N) deposited in coastal environments by both penguins and seals. Our findings have important implications for understanding how the roles of large animals in supporting coastal productivity may shift with environmental conditions in polar ecosystems.

An inter-hemispheric seasonal comparison of polar amplification using radiative forcing of a quadrupling CO<sub>2</sub> experiment

Abstract. The numerical climate simulations from the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM) are used here to investigate the response of the polar regions to a forced increase in CO2 (Abrupt-4×CO2) and compared with Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) simulations. The main objective here is to investigate the seasonality of the surface and vertical warming as well as the coupled processes underlying the polar amplification, such as changes in sea ice cover. Polar regions are described as the most climatically sensitive areas of the globe, with an enhanced warming occurring during the cold seasons. The asymmetry between the two poles is related to the thermal inertia and the coupled ocean–atmosphere processes involved. While at the northern high latitudes the amplified warming signal is associated with a positive snow– and sea ice–albedo feedback, for southern high latitudes the warming is related to a combination of ozone depletion and changes in the wind pattern. The numerical experiments conducted here demonstrated very clear evidence of seasonality in the polar amplification response as well as linkage with sea ice changes. In winter, for the northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes), the range of simulated polar warming varied from 10 to 39 K (−0.5 to 13 K). In summer, for northern high latitudes (southern high latitudes), the simulated warming varies from 0 to 23 K (0.5 to 14 K). The vertical profiles of air temperature indicated stronger warming at the surface, particularly for the Arctic region, suggesting that the albedo–sea ice feedback overlaps with the warming caused by meridional transport of heat in the atmosphere. The latitude of the maximum warming was inversely correlated with changes in the sea ice within the model's control run. Three climate models were identified as having high polar amplification for the Arctic cold season (DJF): IPSL-CM6A-LR (CMIP6), HadGEM2-ES (CMIP5) and CanESM5 (CMIP6). For the Antarctic, in the cold season (JJA), the climate models identified as having high polar amplification were IPSL-CM6A-LR (CMIP6), CanESM5(CMIP6) and FGOALS-s2 (CMIP5). The large decrease in sea ice concentration is more evident in models with great polar amplification and for the same range of latitude (75–90∘ N). Also, we found, for models with enhanced warming, expressive changes in the sea ice annual amplitude with outstanding ice-free conditions from May to December (EC-Earth3-Veg) and June to December (HadGEM2-ES). We suggest that the large bias found among models can be related to the differences in each model to represent the feedback process and also as a consequence of each distinct sea ice initial condition. The polar amplification phenomenon has been observed previously and is expected to become stronger in the coming decades. The consequences for the atmospheric and ocean circulation are still subject to intense debate in the scientific community.

Nematode responses to an Arctic sea-ice regime: morphometric characteristics and biomass size spectra

Body size is one of the most important traits of organisms that affects their behavioral life histories, physiologies, and energy requirements. For sediment-dwelling organisms, such as free-living nematodes, body size is a direct adaptation for living in sediments with a particular particle size, but other environmental factors, e.g., water depth and food availability, directly or indirectly shape nematode morphology. Nevertheless, our knowledge of meiofaunal organisms sizes still lags far behind that of other aquatic fauna, particularly for high-latitude fauna. Therefore, to gain insight into the nematode community size structure, we investigated eight stations located in the seasonal sea-ice zone north of Svalbard (Yermak Plateau, Nansen Basin, and Northern Svalbard shelf) during Arctic spring. Sample locations covered a wide depth gradient, different sea-ice concentrations and subsequent bloom stages. Our study provides previously unavailable data on nematode morphometry for this Arctic region during ecologically important spring to summer transition times. We analyzed nematode biomass, body shape and morphometric attributes, along with respective feeding types and life stage information. Our results show that differences in nematode densities, biomass and allometric attributes most likely reflect differences in the flux of organic material to the seafloor and in the biogeochemical properties of the sediments. Nematode assemblages appeared to respond to spatial gradients in ice cover duration and therefore pelagic productivity from the northern Svalbard shelf to the Yermak Plateau as evidenced by decreasing density, biomass and body size. Considering the entire community, as well as different life stages, average individual body weight decreased northward. Biomass dominance in the lower weight classes and the significantly lower abundance of long and thick morphotype nematodes observed on the Yermak Plateau than in the two other regions were striking. This was in contrast with the assemblage observed on the shelf, where prevailing environmental conditions influenced the presence of other morphotypes - markedly longer and wider organisms. Ongoing changes in sea-ice cover and primary production in the Arctic may significantly affect nematode functioning, as they are expected to have pronounced impacts on nematode morphological characteristics. In this regard, the size-based approach becomes a useful tool for detecting changes in the community and has important implications for predicting the direction of change with regard to benthic productivity.

Impact of climate change on the primary production and related biogeochemical cycles in the coastal and sea ice zone of the Southern Ocean

Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere has exerted impact on the primary production in the Southern Ocean (SO). Using a recently released reanalysis dataset on global biogeochemistry, a comprehensive analysis was conducted on the complex biogeochemical seasonal cycle and the impact of climate change with a focus in areas within the meridional excursion of the sea ice boundary—coastal and continental shelf zone (CCSZ) and seasonal sea ice zone (SIZ). The seasonal cycles of primary production and related nutrients are closely linked with the seasonal changes in sea ice and sea surface temperatures. As sea ice retreats and allows energy and gas exchange across the sea surface, phytoplankton growth is initiated, consuming accumulated nutrients within the shallow depth of ~40 m. The seasonal evolutions of physical, biological and chemical variables show both spatial and temporal consistency with each other. Climate change has altered the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle. While primary production has generally increased along with an intensified uptake of CO2, some areas show a reduction in production (e.g., Prydz Bay, eastern Indian Ocean). In the CCSZ, increased iron utilization and light availability allowed production to be increased. However, the mechanism by which these factors are altered varies from one location to another, including changes in sea ice cover, surface stratification, and downwelling/upwelling. In the SIZ, where iron is generally a limiting factor, iron supply is a key driver of changes in primary production regardless of other nutrients. There is a clear influence of climatic change on the biogeochemical cycle although the signal is still weak.

Flexibility in Antarctic krill Euphausia superba decouples diet and recruitment from overwinter sea-ice conditions in the northern Antarctic Peninsula

Winter sea-ice conditions are considered important for Antarctic krillEuphausia superbasurvival and recruitment, yet few broad-scale longitudinal studies have examined the underlying relationships between winter conditions and krill recruitment. We used data from a 4 yr winter study of krill condition (lipid content), diet (stable isotopes and fatty acids), and length distributions around the northern Antarctic Peninsula to examine relationships among environmental variables (annual sea-ice cover, water column chlorophylla[chla], and upper mixed-layer water temperature), the condition and diet of krill, and recruitment success the following year. Diet indicators (lipid content, δ15N, δ13C, and the fatty acid ratios 16:1n-7/18:4n-3 and 18:1n-9/18:1n-7) in post-larvae were consistent among years regardless of sea-ice cover, suggesting that post-larval krill do not rely on sea-ice resources for overwinter survival. Diet indicators in larvae were more variable and suggest that larvae may feed on sea-ice resources when they are available but can still persist in the water column when they are not. Principal component analysis between environmental variables and diet indicators showed that water-column chlawas the only variable that significantly affected diet, regardless of annual changes in sea-ice cover. Extensive winter ice in one year did not translate into successful recruitment the following year. Krill demonstrate a high degree of flexibility with respect to overwinter habitat and diet, and the degree to which sea ice is important during different times of year and at different life stages may be more complex than previously thought.

Climate effects on temporal and spatial dynamics of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the Barents Sea

Temporal and spatial dynamics of phytoplankton and zooplankton in the Barents Sea have been investigated during the last three decades using remote sensing and in situ observations. Satellite-derived sea surface temperatures increased in the period 1998–2017 by 1.0 °C as an average for the Barents Sea. We found significant positive relationships between ice-free conditions (open water area and duration) and satellite-based net primary production (NPP). The estimated annual NPP for the Barents Sea more than doubled over the 1998–2017 period, from around 40 to over 100 Tg C. The strong increase in NPP is the result of reduction of sea ice, extending both the area and period available for phytoplankton production. In areas where ice extent has decreased, satellite-derived chlorophyll a shows that the timing of the peak spring phytoplankton bloom has advanced by over a month. Our results reveal that phytoplankton dynamics in the ecosystem have been changing rapidly and that this change is driven mainly by bottom-up climatic processes. Autumn mesozooplankton biomass showed strong interannual variability in the 1990s, displaying an inverse relationship with capelin biomass, the most abundant planktivorous fish. In some regions, e.g. Central Bank, capelin biomass explained up to 50% of the mesozooplankton variability during 1989–2017. Though capelin biomass has varied considerably, mesozooplankton biomass has remained rather stable since the mid-2000s (6–8 g dry wt. m−2), resulting in a weakening of the negative relationship between capelin and mesozooplankton biomass in recent years. The stable zooplankton biomass indicates favorable conditions (prolonged/increased NPP) for mesozooplankton production, partly counteracting high predation levels. Overall, we observed trends in phytoplankton phenology that were strongly associated with changes in sea ice cover driven by fluctuations in temperature regime, a trend that may intensify should the ecosystem become even warmer due to climate change. Further reductions of sea ice and associated ice algae is expected to have adverse effects on sympagic fauna and ice dependent species in the Arctic food web. The ice-free conditions may promote further Atlantification (or borealization) of plankton and fish communities in the Barents Sea.

Holocene changes in sea-ice cover and polynya formation along the eastern North Greenland shelf: New insights from biomarker records

Understanding the processes controlling the natural variability of sea ice in the Arctic, one of the most dynamic components of the climate system, can help to constrain the effects of future climate change in this highly sensitive area. For the first time, a high-resolution biomarker study was carried out to reconstruct past sea-ice variability off eastern North Greenland. This area is strongly influenced by cold surface waters and drift ice transported via the East Greenland Current, meltwater pulses from the outlet glaciers of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream and the build-up of landfast ice. The well-dated Holocene sedimentary section of Core PS93/025 provides insights into variations of the sea-ice conditions (regional and local sea-ice signal), oceanic and atmospheric circulation and the biotic response to these changes. These biomarker records show a reduced to variable sea-ice cover during the early Holocene between 10.2 and 9.3 ka, followed by a steady increase in sea-ice conditions during the mid Holocene. During the last 5–6 ka, sea-ice conditions remained more stable representing a seasonal to marginal sea-ice situation. Based on our biomarker records, stable sea-ice edge conditions, with a fully developed polynya situation occurred since the last 1 ka.

Polar cod in jeopardy under the retreating Arctic sea ice

The Arctic amplification of global warming is causing the Arctic-Atlantic ice edge to retreat at unprecedented rates. Here we show how variability and change in sea ice cover in the Barents Sea, the largest shelf sea of the Arctic, affect the population dynamics of a keystone species of the ice-associated food web, the polar cod (Boreogadus saida). The data-driven biophysical model of polar cod early life stages assembled here predicts a strong mechanistic link between survival and variation in ice cover and temperature, suggesting imminent recruitment collapse should the observed ice-reduction and heating continue. Backtracking of drifting eggs and larvae from observations also demonstrates a northward retreat of one of two clearly defined spawning assemblages, possibly in response to warming. With annual to decadal ice-predictions under development the mechanistic physical-biological links presented here represent a powerful tool for making long-term predictions for the propagation of polar cod stocks.

Applying science to pressing conservation needs for penguins.

More than half of the world's 18 penguin species are declining. We, the Steering Committee of the International Union for Conservation of Nature Species Survival Commission Penguin Specialist Group, determined that the penguin species in most critical need of conservation action are African penguin (Spheniscus demersus), Galápagos penguin (Spheniscus mendiculus), and Yellow‐eyed penguin (Megadyptes antipodes). Due to small or rapidly declining populations, these species require immediate scientific collaboration and policy intervention. We also used a pairwise‐ranking approach to prioritize research and conservation needs for all penguins. Among the 12 cross‐taxa research areas we identified, we ranked quantifying population trends, estimating demographic rates, forecasting environmental patterns of change, and improving the knowledge of fisheries interactions as the highest priorities. The highest ranked conservation needs were to enhance marine spatial planning, improve stakeholder engagement, and develop disaster‐management and species‐specific action plans. We concurred that, to improve the translation of science into effective conservation for penguins, the scientific community and funding bodies must recognize the importance of and support long‐term research; research on and conservation of penguins must expand its focus to include the nonbreeding season and juvenile stage; marine reserves must be designed at ecologically appropriate spatial and temporal scales; and communication between scientists and decision makers must be improved with the help of individual scientists and interdisciplinary working groups.

Climatic changes of seasonal and inter-annual variability of the ice cover of the Greenland and Barents Seas

The structure of the long-period variability of the ice cover of the Barents and Greenland Seas over a long series of observations from 1930 to 2017 is analyzed. In both seas, there is a significant negative linear trend of ice cover for both the winter and summer seasons. Average for the period of 1950–2016 intra-annual changes in ice coverings demonstrate the conjugacy of the seasonal cycles of the Greenland and Barents Seas, but with certain differences. Three homogeneous groups with a similar character of intra-annual changes in the ice area are identified for each sea. Identified succession in a state of ice cover for 2 years.The conjugacy of changes in the average decadal values of sea ice cover in April and August with the average decadal indices of atmospheric circulation AO, AD, PNA, NAO and the index of the thermal state of the North Atlantic AMO is shown. Spectral analysis of the winter and summer ice cover of the Greenland and Barents Seas for the period 1930–2016 confirmed earlier received cyclical fluctuations of 22, 9–11 and 6–7 years.Cross-correlation analysis established a close relationship between the longitudinal changes in the ice cover and the average annual values of the following astrogeophysical parameters, the longitude coordinate of the Earth pole position Y, the Earth axis nutation indices dEps and dPsi, the Earth rotation speed index lod (length of day), Sun solar activity index (annual Wolf number) , the average for six months, the distance from the Sun to Earth in the summer SX-III and the winter SX-III periods. Significant correlation coefficients are quite large (R = |0,30| – |0,56|) for both seas, comparable to the correlation coefficients between the ice cover and average annual air temperature T, show the reality of the ice cover mediated reaction to changes in astrophysical factors. Statistical equations relating the sea ice cover to hydrometeorological and astrogeophysical factors were obtained by multiple correlation. The overall correlation coefficient varies from R = 0,80 to R = 0,87 AT. The Greenland Sea, the share of astrogeophysical factors in the long-term changes in the ice cover of both the winter and summer seasons exceeded the contribution of hydrometeorological factors by 3–4 times. In the Barents Sea, the contribution to the total dispersion of astrogeophysical factors in the winter period is somewhat less than that of hydrometeorological factors, and in the summer period they exceed only 1.4 times. The authors’ approach opens up the possibility of using it to obtain statistical equations for the diagnosis and forecast of long-term and climatic changes in sea-ice cover.

Oceanic heat transport into the Arctic under high and low hbox {CO}_2 forcing

Enhanced ocean heat transport into the Arctic is linked to stronger future Arctic warming and polar amplification. To quantify the impact of ocean heat transport on Arctic climate, it is imperative to understand how its magnitude and the associated mechanisms change in other climate states. This paper therefore assesses the ocean heat transport into the Arctic at 70^{circ }hbox {N} for climates forced with a broad range of carbon dioxide concentration levels, ranging from one-fourth to four times modern values. We focused on ocean heat transports through the Arctic entrances (Bering Strait, Canadian Archipelago, and Nordic Seas) and identified relative contributions of volume and temperature to these changes. The results show that ocean heat transport differences across the five climate states are dominated by heat transport changes in the Nordic Seas, although in the warmest climate state heat transport through the Bering Strait plays an almost equally important role. This is primarily caused by changes in horizontal currents owing to anomalous wind responses and to differential advection of thermal anomalies. Changes in sea ice cover play a prominent role by modulating the surface heat fluxes and the impact of wind stresses on ocean currents. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and its associated heat transport play a more modest role in the ocean heat transport into the Arctic. The net effect of these changes is that the poleward ocean heat transport at 70^{circ }hbox {N} strongly increases from the coldest climate to the warmest climate state.

Contributions of advection and melting processes to the decline in sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean

Abstract. The Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (PA, hereafter) is a region sensitive to climate change. Given the alarming changes in sea ice cover during recent years, knowledge of sea ice loss with respect to ice advection and melting processes has become critical. With satellite-derived products from the National Snow and Ice Center (NSIDC), a 38-year record (1979–2016) of the loss in sea ice area in summer within the Pacific-Arctic (PA) sector due to the two processes is obtained. The average sea ice outflow from the PA to the Atlantic-Arctic (AA) Ocean during the summer season (June–September) reaches 0.173×106 km2, which corresponds to approximately 34 % of the mean annual export (October to September). Over the investigated period, a positive trend of 0.004×106 km2 yr−1 is also observed for the outflow field in summer. The mean estimate of sea ice retreat within the PA associated with summer melting is 1.66×106 km2, with a positive trend of 0.053×106 km2 yr−1. As a result, the increasing trends of ice retreat caused by outflow and melting together contribute to a stronger decrease in sea ice coverage within the PA (0.057×106 km2 yr−1) in summer. In percentage terms, the melting process accounts for 90.4 % of the sea ice retreat in the PA in summer, whereas the remaining 9.6 % is explained by the outflow process, on average. Moreover, our analysis suggests that the connections are relatively strong (R=0.63), moderate (R=-0.46), and weak (R=-0.24) between retreat of sea ice and the winds associated with the dipole anomaly (DA), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO), respectively. The DA participates by impacting both the advection (R=0.74) and melting (R=0.55) processes, whereas the NAO affects the melting process (R=-0.46).

Late spring bloom development of pelagic diatoms in Baffin Bay

The Arctic Ocean is particularly affected by climate change, with changes in sea ice cover expected to impact phytoplankton primary production. During the Green Edge expedition, the development of the late spring–early summer diatom bloom was studied in relation with the sea ice retreat by multiple transects across the marginal ice zone. Biogenic silica concentrations and uptake rates were measured. In addition, diatom assemblage structures and their associated carbon biomass were determined, along with taxon-specific contributions to total biogenic silica production using the fluorescent dye PDMPO. Results indicate that a diatom bloom developed in open waters close to the ice edge, following the alleviation of light limitation, and extended 20–30 km underneath the ice pack. This actively growing diatom bloom (up to 0.19 μmol Si L–1 d–1) was associated with high biogenic silica concentrations (up to 2.15 μmol L–1), and was dominated by colonial fast-growing centric (Chaetoceros spp. and Thalassiosira spp.) and ribbon-forming pennate species (Fragilariopsis spp./Fossula arctica). The bloom remained concentrated over the shallow Greenland shelf and slope, in Atlantic-influenced waters, and weakened as it moved westwards toward ice-free Pacific-influenced waters. The development resulted in a near depletion of all nutrients eastwards of the bay, which probably induced the formation of resting spores of Melosira arctica. In contrast, under the ice pack, nutrients had not yet been consumed. Biogenic silica and uptake rates were still low (respectively <0.5 μmol L–1 and <0.05 μmol L–1 d–1), although elevated specific Si uptake rates (up to 0.23 d–1) probably reflected early stages of the bloom. These diatoms were dominated by pennate species (Pseudo-nitzschia spp., Ceratoneis closterium, and Fragilariopsis spp./Fossula arctica). This study can contribute to predictions of the future response of Arctic diatoms in the context of climate change.

Microbial Communities in the East and West Fram Strait During Sea Ice Melting Season

Climate models project that the Arctic Ocean may experience ice-free summers by the second half of this century. This may have severe repercussions on phytoplankton bloom dynamics and the associated cycling of carbon in surface waters. We currently lack baseline knowledge of the seasonal dynamics of Arctic microbial communities, which is needed in order to better estimate the effects of such changes on ecosystem functioning. Here we present a comparative study of polar summer microbial communities in the ice-free (eastern) and ice-covered (western) hydrographic regimes at the LTER HAUSGARTEN in Fram Strait, the main gateway between the Arctic and North Atlantic Oceans. Based on measured and modeled biogeochemical parameters, we tentatively identified two different ecosystem states (i.e., different phytoplankton bloom stages) in the distinct regions. Using Illumina tag-sequencing, we determined the community composition of both free-living and particle-associated bacteria as well as microbial eukaryotes in the photic layer. Despite substantial horizontal mixing by eddies in Fram Strait, pelagic microbial communities showed distinct differences between the two regimes, with a proposed early spring (pre-bloom) community in the ice-covered western regime (with higher representation of SAR11, SAR202, SAR406 and eukaryotic MALVs) and a community indicative of late summer conditions (post-bloom) in the ice-free eastern regime (with higher representation of Flavobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria and eukaryotic heterotrophs). Co-occurrence networks revealed specific taxon-taxon associations between bacterial and eukaryotic taxa in the two regions. Our results suggest that the predicted changes in sea ice cover and phytoplankton bloom dynamics will have a strong impact on bacterial community dynamics and potentially on biogeochemical cycles in this region.

Temporal and spatial variability in coastline response to declining sea-ice in northwest Alaska

Arctic sea-ice is declining in extent, leaving coastlines exposed to more storm-wave events. There is an urgent need to understand how these changes affect geomorphic processes along Arctic coasts. Here we describe spatial and temporal patterns of shoreline changes along two geomorphologically distinct, storm-wave dominated reaches of the Chukchi Sea coastline over the last 64 years. One study area encompasses the west- to southwest-facing, coarse-clastic shoreline and ice-rich bluffs of Cape Krusenstern (CAKR). The other covers the north-facing, sandy shorelines on barrier islands, ice-rich bluffs, and the Cape Espenberg spit in the Bering Land Bridge National Park (BELA). Both study areas lie within the zone of continuous permafrost, which exists both on and offshore and outcrops as ice-rich bluffs along the BELA coast. We mapped changes in coastal geomorphology over three observation periods: 1950–1980, 1980–2003, and 2003–2014 using aerial and satellite imagery. We then compared these geomorphic changes to changes in sea-ice coverage, which declined ~10 days per decade between 1979 and 2016 in the southern Chukchi Sea. Changes in coastal geomorphology in both BELA and CAKR exhibited high spatial variability over the study period. Between 2003 and 2014, shorelines of barrier islands in BELA exhibited the highest mean rates of change, −1.5 m yr−1, while coarse, clastic barrier beaches in CAKR showed only minimal change. Overall, shorelines in both BELA and CAKR became more dynamic (increasing erosion or increasing accumulation) after ca. 2003, with spatial variability in shoreline changes roughly doubling between the first period of observation (1950–1980) and the last (2003–2014). This increase in coastal dynamism may signal a transitional period leading to new state of geomorphic equilibria along these ice-affected coastlines.

Global temperature definition affects achievement of long-term climate goals

The Paris Agreement on climate change aims to limit ‘global average temperature’ rise to ‘well below 2 °C’ but reported temperature depends on choices about how to blend air and water temperature data, handle changes in sea ice and account for regions with missing data. Here we use CMIP5 climate model simulations to estimate how these choices affect reported warming and carbon budgets consistent with the Paris Agreement. By the 2090s, under a low-emissions scenario, modelled global near-surface air temperature rise is 15% higher (5%–95% range 6%–21%) than that estimated by an approach similar to the HadCRUT4 observational record. The difference reduces to 8% with global data coverage, or 4% with additional removal of a bias associated with changing sea-ice cover. Comparison of observational datasets with different data sources or infilling techniques supports our model results regarding incomplete coverage. From high-emission simulations, we find that a HadCRUT4 like definition means higher carbon budgets and later exceedance of temperature thresholds, relative to global near-surface air temperature. 2 °C warming is delayed by seven years on average, to 2048 (2035–2060), and CO2 emissions budget for a >50% chance of <2 °C warming increases by 67 GtC (246 GtCO2).