Changes In Rainfall Distribution Research Articles

Impact of Soil Moisture Dynamics and Precipitation Pattern on UK Urban Pluvial Flood Hazards Under Climate Change

AbstractThe diversity of flood‐generating mechanisms superimposed on catchment physiographic features with non‐stationary meteorological drivers makes future flood hazard assessment a grand challenge. To date, many studies have examined patterns in rainfall and streamflow, but far fewer have investigated trends in the other drivers of flooding. The complex transfer function between precipitation and flooding makes it potentially misleading to simply look at the change in rainfall to express the hazard. Furthermore, there are very few studies that have directly used output from km‐scale climate models in flood modeling. Coarse resolution climate data sets may not credibly resolve local climate and weather extremes. Changes in rainfall distribution and antecedent moisture over extended time periods due to climate change have so far been ignored when assessing urban pluvial flood risk. In this paper, an urban flood hazard assessment framework using the latest 2.2 km resolution UK Climate Projections Local is proposed. Global warming induced changes in pluvial flood risks under RCP8.5 are projected, focusing on the impact of changing precipitation patterns and soil moisture dynamics on flood generation. Results indicate a strong increase in the frequency of occurrence of extreme floods, and the resultant future (2060–2080) annual flood volume is expected to increase up to 52.6% relative to 1980–2000 over a major UK urban region, and these patterns are likely to hold more generally elsewhere in the UK. Shifts to a later occurrence of extreme flooding is identified under global warming. Previous studies that have neglected soil moisture dynamics are unlikely to give accurate flood estimates.

Assessment of the Impacts of Rainfall Characteristics and Land Use Pattern on Runoff Accumulation in the Hulu River Basin, China

Climate change causes the river basin water cycle disorders, and rainfall characteristics frequently result in flood disasters. This study aims to simulate and assess the response behavior of basin floods under the influence of rainfall characteristics and land use changes in the Hulu River basin using a 2D hydrological and hydraulic GAST (GPU Accelerated Surface Water Flow and Transport Model). The peak flow rate and water depth during floods were examined by simulating the evolution process of basin floods and related hydraulic elements under the independent effects of various rainfall characteristics or land use and further simulating the response results of basin floods under the combined effects of rainfall characteristics and land use. The seven scenarios were set to quantify the degree of influence that land use and rainfall characteristics have on the basin flood process based on examining changes in land use and rainfall characteristics in the research area. The results from different rainfall characteristics scenarios depicted that as the rainfall return period is shorter, the peak flow rate is higher, and the peak flow rate is lower as the return period is prolonged. Under different rainfall characteristics, the peak flow rate in scenario R8 is 41.30%, 40.00%, and 34.51% higher than the uniform distribution of rainfall, while water depth is decreased by 0.55%, increased by 4.96% and 2.92% as compared to the uniform distribution of rainfall. While under different land use scenarios, it is observed that the change in land use has increased 2.7% in cultivated land and 1.1% in woodland. In addition, the interactive effect of different rainfall characteristics and land use it can be seen that the scenario with the greatest reduction in flood risk due to rainfall characteristics and land use is RL2-4, representing a 12.55% decrease in peak flow and a 37.69% decrease in peak water depth. In this scenario, the rainfall is heavier in the southeast and northwest regions and lighter in the northeast and southwest regions. The land use type is characterized by reforestation and the return of cultivated land to forests. The changes in rainfall distribution and the increase in grassland contribute to the decrease in flood threat. Future research in the erodible parts of the Hulu River basin, planning for water resources, and soil and water conservation can all benefit from the study’s conclusions.

Midterm change in rainfall distribution in north and central Benin: implications for agricultural decision making

Midterm change in rainfall distribution in north and central Benin: implications for agricultural decision making

Changes in rainfall rates and increased number of extreme rainfall events in Rio de Janeiro city

Increased temperature rates have the potential to change the rainfall regime in a given region, as well as to intensify its extreme events, which may lead to significant and negative socioeconomic and environmental impacts on urban populations. However, knowledge about the extent of changes in rainfall rates in Rio de Janeiro City (RJC) remains incipient; thus, it is necessary applying indices climate change to help better understanding this phenomenon. The aim of the current study is to investigate changes in rainfall distribution and increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in RJC. Daily rainfall data deriving from fifteen weather stations distributed in RJC were analyzed in the RclimDex software and Mann–Kendall test. The analysis has shown increased rainfall rates from the beginning of the series to approximately the first ten years of study. Total rainfall rate has decreased after this period. Rainfall intensity in almost all seasons has decreased after 2005; this outcome has indicated reduced annual rainfall rate and number of wet days. However, there was prevalence of positive trends in daily rainfall rates (Rx1day) and in total rainfall of five consecutive days (Rx5day). The increased number of extreme rainfall events in RJC can cause sudden inundations, floods, runoffs and river overflows with potential to cause landslides and human death due to irregular occupation of hills and slopes.

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies in Madda Walabu District, Bale Zone, Southeast Ethiopia

Climate change is one of the most serious environmental challenges affecting people all over the world causing widespread agitation and having an impact on economic systems such as agricultural production. Local communities in Madda Walabu District of Bale Zone, Southeast Ethiopia, are heavily dependent on agriculture. In contrast, the agricultural activity of the local community was depressed by threats such as increased temperature, prolonged drought, and changes in rainfall distribution. To mitigate the adverse consequences of climate change, it is important to understand the local knowledge of adaptation and mitigation actions. This research was a look into the climate change adaptation and mitigation in Ethiopia’s Madda Walabu District households to survive. The objective of the study was to investigate climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for the synergy of the communities in the Madda Walabu District. A multistage stratified random sampling procedure and three villages were randomly selected. A total of 150 sample households from the three villages were interviewed. Descriptive statistics were employed to analyse data, and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) was used for analysis. The results showed that most of the respondents have perceived an increase in temperature, fluctuation in the rainy season, and a decrease in the amount of rainfall. The respondents perceived that they are vulnerable to local climate variability. This study also revealed that 78% of the respondents followed different adaptation strategies to climate change, such as irrigation intensification, agroforestry, agronomic, and cultural practices. Adaptation and mitigation measures can be developed by enhancing the adaptive and mitigating capacity of forest-dependent communities. Therefore, awareness creation on climate change, variability, adaptation, and mitigation measures should be considered toward enhancing the adaptive capacity of the local communities in line with providing seasonal weather information. More research in the domain of climate change and mitigation techniques is needed as several statistical results were not as predicted, and the amount of adaptation and mitigation synergies was low. Furthermore, the study’s households were predominantly pastoralists, and their climate change adaptation and mitigation strategy for the livestock sector was an issue that needed to be addressed urgently.

Effect of vapour pressure deficit on gas exchange of field-grown cotton

BackgroundPlants respond to changes in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) between the leaf and the atmosphere through changes in stomatal response, which can consequently affect transpiration, photosynthesis, and leaf-level water use efficiencies. With projected warmer air temperatures, changes in rainfall distribution and altered VPD in future climates, it is important to understand the potential effect of VPD on leaf-level physiology of field-grown crops. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of altered VPD on leaf-level physiology of field-grown cotton to improve the current understanding of the plant-by-environment interaction, thereby contributing to validation and improvement of physiological and yield response models. Different VPD environments in the field were generated by planting cotton on three dates within the sowing window (early-season (S1) = 5th October 2011; mid-season (S2) = 9th November 2011; and late-season (S3) = 30th November 2011). VPD was also modified by altering crop irrigations.ResultsVPDL accounted for the largest proportion of the explained variation in both stomatal conductance (32%∼39%) and photosynthetic (16%∼29%) responses of cotton. Generally, smaller percentages of variation were attributed to other main factors such as the individual plant (Plant), and accumulated temperature stress hours (ASH; a measure of plant water status over time) and interactive factors, including leaf vapour pressure deficit (VPDL) × Plant and Plant × ASH; however, a proportion of variation was unexplained. In addition, the Asat/E (instantaneous transpiration efficiency, ITE) model developed based on cotton grown in the glasshouse was applied to cotton grown in the field. We found that the modelled Asat/E and field-measured Asat/E were very similar, suggesting that the mechanistic basis for ITE was similar in both environments.ConclusionsThis study highlights the importance of accounting for VPD in climate change research, given that stomata are highly responsive to changes in VPD. This experiment provides a basis for physiology and production models, particularly in terms of cotton response to projected climatic environments.

Moderately prolonged dry intervals between precipitation events promote production in Leymus chinensis in a semi-arid grassland of Northeast China

BackgroundClimate change is predicted to lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation during the growing seasonal. This “repackaging” of rainfall could be particularly important for grassland productivity. Here, we designed a two-factor full factorial experiment (three levels of precipitation amount and six levels of dry intervals) to investigate the effect of precipitation patterns on biomass production in Leymus chinensis (Trin.) Tzvel. (a dominant species in the Eastern Eurasian Steppe).ResultsOur results showed that increased amounts of rainfall with prolonged dry intervals promoted biomass production in L. chinensis by increasing soil moisture, except for the longest dry interval (21 days). However, prolonged dry intervals with increased amount of precipitation per event decreased the available soil nitrogen content, especially the soil NO3−-N content. For small with more frequent rainfall events pattern, L. chinensis biomass decreased due to smaller plant size (plant height) and fewer ramets. Under large quantities of rain falling during a few events, the reduction in biomass was not only affected by decreasing plant individual size and lower ramet number but also by withering of aboveground parts, which resulted from both lower soil water content and lower NO3−-N content.ConclusionOur study suggests that prolonged dry intervals between rainfall combined with large precipitation events will dramatically change grassland productivity in the future. For certain combinations of prolonged dry intervals and increased amounts of intervening rainfall, semi-arid grassland productivity may improve. However, this rainfall pattern may accelerate the loss of available soil nitrogen. Under extremely prolonged dry intervals, the periods between precipitation events exceeded the soil moisture recharge interval, the available soil moisture became fully depleted, and plant growth ceased. This implies that changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall due to climate change could have a major impact on grassland productivity.

Haplotype- and SNP-Based GWAS for Growth and Wood Quality Traits in Eucalyptus cladocalyx Trees under Arid Conditions.

The agricultural and forestry productivity of Mediterranean ecosystems is strongly threatened by the adverse effects of climate change, including an increase in severe droughts and changes in rainfall distribution. In the present study, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotype blocks associated with the growth and wood quality of Eucalyptus cladocalyx, a tree species suitable for low-rainfall sites. The study was conducted in a progeny-provenance trial established in an arid site with Mediterranean patterns located in the southern Atacama Desert, Chile. A total of 87 SNPs and 3 haplotype blocks were significantly associated with the 6 traits under study (tree height, diameter at breast height, slenderness coefficient, first bifurcation height, stem straightness, and pilodyn penetration). In addition, 11 loci were identified as pleiotropic through Bayesian multivariate regression and were mainly associated with wood hardness, height, and diameter. In general, the GWAS revealed associations with genes related to primary metabolism and biosynthesis of cell wall components. Additionally, associations coinciding with stress response genes, such as GEM-related 5 and prohibitin-3, were detected. The findings of this study provide valuable information regarding genetic control of morphological traits related to adaptation to arid environments.

Changes in monsoon rainfall distribution of Bangladesh using quantile regression model

Climate change is supposed to alter not only the mean and variability but also the distribution of rainfall. Changes in rainfall distribution during the monsoon months (June to September) of Bangladesh are evaluated in this study using quantile regression. Monthly rainfall data for the period 1961–2014 recorded at 18 locations distributed over the country were used for this purpose. Distributional changes of monthly rainfall showed downward convergent lines are dominant in peak monsoon months of June, July and August at 28%, 50% and 28% stations, respectively, followed by horizontally divergent lines at 17% of stations during those months. The dominating category of last monsoon month (September) rainfall was found upward divergent lines at 50% stations. The results revealed a decrease in many rainfall quantiles from June to August and increase in September in most of the stations. The increasing trend lines of September rainfall quantiles were found to become more diverse with time, which indicates an increase in rainfall extremes and the possibility of more floods which are already very common in the last month of monsoon in Bangladesh. The decrease in lower quantiles of rainfall in most of the monsoon months may cause an increase in the probability of droughts in the country. The study provided more insight on monsoon rainfall changes and improved understanding of climate change impacts on monsoon rainfall regime which can help in planning climate change adaptations in Bangladesh.

Changes in rainfall distribution promote woody foliage production in the Sahel

Dryland ecosystems comprise a balance between woody and herbaceous vegetation. Climate change impacts rainfall timing, which may alter the respective contributions of woody and herbaceous plants on the total vegetation production. Here, we apply 30 years of field-measured woody foliage and herbaceous mass from Senegal and document a faster increase in woody foliage mass (+17 kg ha−1 yr−1) as compared to herbaceous mass (+3 kg ha−1 yr−1). Annual rainfall trends were partitioned into core wet-season rains (+0.7 mm yr-1), supporting a weak but periodic (5-year cycles) increase in herbaceous mass, and early/late rains (+2.1 mm yr−1), explaining the strongly increased woody foliage mass. Satellite observations confirm these findings for the majority of the Sahel, with total herbaceous/woody foliage mass increases by 6%/20%. We conclude that the rainfall recovery in the Sahel does not benefit herbaceous vegetation to the same extent as woody vegetation, presumably favoured by increased early/late rains.

Variability of Future Rainfall over the Mono River Basin of West-Africa

This study assessed the rainfall trends and changes over Mono river basin under the highest greenhouse gas emission scenario RCP8.5. Simulations of eight regional climate models (RCMs) provided by Africa-CORDEX program were considered. To analyze the performance of a set of regional climate models, the MBE (mean bias error), the RMSE (root mean square error), the volume bias (VB), correlation coefficient (R2) and the t-Test statistics were calculated. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), Mann-Kendall trend test, Theil-Sen’s slope estimator (β), and relative percentage change methods were also adopted for data analysis. Changes from the baseline period 1981-2010 were computed for far future (2061-2090 and 2071-2100). As results, the analysis herein highlighted the multi-models’ mean ability to simulate the Mono river basin rainfall adequately. Two distinct patterns emerged from the calculated PCI indicating that stations in southern basin will have moderate, irregular, and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations, whereas stations in northern basin will have irregular and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations. Significant declining in the rainfall was detected in most stations for the future period. The evolution of the monthly average rainfall amounts will be broadly characterized by a decrease and increase between 32.4 and 12% with late rainy seasons. It is understood that future changes in rainfall distribution and trends will affect the availability of water for crops, which should affect the productivity of rain fed agriculture.

Analysis of Rainfall Distribution, Temporal Trends, and Rates of Change in the Savannah Zones of Nigeria

ABSTRACT The impact of climate change is often demonstrated by rainfall and its attributes. Consequently, this study analyzes rainfall concentration, temporal trends, and rates of change in the savannah zones of Nigeria. Rainfall data were acquired from the archives of the Environmental Management Programme, Federal University of Technology, Minna, for 13 synoptic stations at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales for the 1970–2016 period. The precipitation concentration index (PCI), Mann–Kendall trend test, Theil–Sen’s slope estimator (β), and relative percentage change methods were adopted for data analysis. The findings reveal that PCI calculated on an annual scale falls into three categories 11–15, 16–20, and PCI > 20. Two distinct patterns emerged from the calculated PCI indicating that stations in the Guinea savannah zone (Bida, Yola, Minna, Jos, Bauchi, and Kaduna) have moderate, irregular, and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations, whereas stations in the Sudano-Sahelian savannah zone (Kano, Gusau, Maiduguri, Yelwa, Nguru, Sokoto, and Katsina) have irregular and strongly irregular rainfall concentrations. The Mann–Kendall analysis of the PCI values reveals that 8 of the 13 stations (62%) experienced downward trends. This implies that rainfall is sliding toward a moderate to uniform distribution. The trends, and consequently the variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall, reveal that, with the exception of Yola and Jos stations, where the trends were downward, the overall rainfall was increasing significantly in some areas and insignificantly in others. The magnitude of the significant upward trends in the annual rainfall was found to be 3.59 mm yr−1 at Yelwa station, 9.84 mm yr−1 at Bauchi station, 17.13 mm yr−1 at Kano station, 3.98 mm yr−1 at Sokoto station, and 3.11 mm yr−1 at Katsina station. It is understood that the changes in rainfall distribution and trends have positive effects on water availability for crops, and this should facilitate enhanced productivity in rain-fed farming.

Measuring the Impact of Extreme Weather Phenomena on Total Factor Productivity of General Cropping Farms in East Anglia

One of the main challenges of climate change on agriculture in UK is how to adapt to the potential changes to the availability of water. Changes in rainfall distribution may potentially lead to an increase in drought frequency, magnitude and duration. In this research a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and a Malmquist Index (MI) are combined with a double bootstrap methodology to measure changes in Total Factor Productivity of general cropping farms in East Anglia. More specifically, the DEA technique was used to measure the year by year efficiency score for the farms in the sample and the MI and its components used to derive information on productivity over time. Data for the input – output models was obtained from the Farm Business Survey. Climate change is taken into consideration by using data for water cost as a proxy indicator of water consumption per farm. Results reveal changes in total, technical and scale efficiency and provide information on how the 2011 drought affect the TFP of the farms in the sample.

Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

Rainfall changes affect the algae dominance in tank bromeliad ecosystems.

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors.

Long-term change in rainfall distribution in Northeast Thailand: will cropping systems be able to adapt?

Climate vagaries and the lack of irrigation, frequently combined with coarse-textured sandy and unevenly distributed saline soils, explain low crop yields and the endemic relative poverty of the rural population in Northeast Thailand (NET). Local and regional trends in agriculturally-relevant rainfall variables were investigated using the Mann-Kendall test, modified to account for serial correlation, and applied to 17 stations across NET, and the regional average Kendall's statistic. Limited changes in rainfall frequency, intensity and seasonality are observed at individual stations over the study period (1953–2004). But we found a significant regional trend toward a wetter dry season. Based on an intimate knowledge of the local farming systems, we discuss the cropping systems adaptation to these rainfall changes. If the wetting of the dry season extends in the future, as expected according to most climate projections, households would not find it difficult to adapt, except for the problems caused by temperature rise, mainly due to their renowned adaptive capacity and high mobility that historically produced diverse and resilient rural livelihood systems.

Trends of Soybean Yields under Climate Change Scenarios

Soybean is a very important crop, cultivated mainly as stock feed for animal production, but also for other uses such as biodiesel. Brazil is the second largest producer of soybeans, and the main exporter. About 10% of total Brazilian production is aimed for biodiesel production. The aim of this work was to assess the impact of climate change scenarios on soybean yield and evaluate two simple adaptation strategies: cultivar and planting date. Tests were done for soil profiles from two important producing regions: Chapecó-Red Oxisol, and Passo Fundo-Rodic Hapludox. Two commercial soybean cultivars (CD202 and CD204) and seven regional circulation models (RCM) were used. All simulations were done with DSSAT. After model calibration, eleven planting dates were run for two periods (2011–2040 and 2071–2100) using the RCM’s. There were no differences between cultivars. For Chapecó, the majority of RCM’s projected yield reductions, with few RCM’s projecting increments, and for only few planting dates (November). The response pattern for both time periods were identical, although the end-of-century period presented a further yield reduction. The main reason was reduced water holding capacity in soil, high temperatures, and changes in rainfall distribution along the cropping season. For Passo Fundo, 2011–2040 yields were distinct, depending on the RCM. Simulated yields tended to follow the actual yield pattern along the different planting dates, besides discrepancies. For 2071–2100, all but one RCM indicated yields equal or lower to actual levels. Regarding planting dates, no significant changes were identified, although reductions were observed for the early planting dates (August–September). The scenarios suggest that soybean yields will be reduced, jeopardizing the viability of this crop and biodiesel production in the studied regions.

Extreme Rainfall from Landfalling Tropical Cyclones in the Eastern United States: Hurricane Irene (2011)

Abstract Hurricane Irene produced catastrophic rainfall and flooding in portions of the eastern United States from 27 to 29 August 2011. Like a number of tropical cyclones that have produced extreme flooding in the northeastern United States, Hurricane Irene was undergoing extratropical transition during the period of most intense rainfall. In this study the rainfall distribution of landfalling tropical cyclones is examined, principally through analyses of radar rainfall fields and high-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. In addition to extratropical transition, the changing storm environment at landfall and orographic precipitation mechanisms can be important players in controlling the distribution of extreme rainfall. Rainfall distribution from landfalling tropical cyclones is examined from a Lagrangian perspective, focusing on times of landfall and extratropical transition, as well as interactions of the storm circulation with mountainous terrain. WRF simulations capture important features of rainfall distribution, including the pronounced change in rainfall distribution during extratropical transition. Synoptic-scale analyses show that a deep baroclinic zone developed and strengthened in the left-front quadrant of Irene, controlling rainfall distribution over the regions experiencing most severe flooding. Numerical experiments were performed with WRF to examine the role of mountainous terrain in altering rainfall distribution. Analyses of Hurricane Irene are placed in a larger context through analyses of Hurricane Hannah (2008) and Hurricane Sandy (2012).

The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios

Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management.

Drought Stress in Grain Legumes during Reproduction and Grain Filling

AbstractWater scarcity is a major constraint limiting grain legume production particularly in the arid and semi‐arid tropics. Different climate models have predicted changes in rainfall distribution and frequent drought spells for the future. Although drought impedes the productivity of grain legumes at all growth stages, its occurrence during reproductive and grain development stages (terminal drought) is more critical and usually results in significant loss in grain yield. However, the extent of yield loss depends on the duration and intensity of the stress. A reduction in the rate of net photosynthesis, and poor grain set and grain development are the principal reasons for terminal drought‐induced loss in grain yield. Insight into the impact and resistance mechanism of terminal drought is required for effective crop improvement programmes aiming to improve resistance to terminal drought in grain legumes. In this article, the impact of terminal drought on leaf development and senescence, light harvesting and carbon fixation, and grain development and grain composition is discussed. The mechanisms of resistance, management options, and innovative breeding and functional genomics strategies to improve resistance to terminal drought in grain legumes are also discussed.