Abstract

Climate change and biodiversity loss have been reported as major disturbances in the biosphere which can trigger changes in the structure and functioning of natural ecosystems. Nonetheless, empirical studies demonstrating how both factors interact to affect shifts in aquatic ecosystems are still unexplored. Here, we experimentally test how changes in rainfall distribution and litter diversity affect the occurrence of the algae-dominated condition in tank bromeliad ecosystems. Tank bromeliads are miniature aquatic ecosystems shaped by the rainwater and allochthonous detritus accumulated in the bases of their leaves. Here, we demonstrated that changes in the rainfall distribution were able to reduce the chlorophyll-a concentration in the water of bromeliad tanks affecting significantly the occurrence of algae-dominated conditions. On the other hand, litter diversity did not affect the algae dominance irrespective to the rainfall scenario. We suggest that rainfall changes may compromise important self-reinforcing mechanisms responsible for maintaining high levels of algae on tank bromeliads ecosystems. We summarized these results into a theoretical model which suggests that tank bromeliads may show two different regimes, determined by the bromeliad ability in taking up nutrients from the water and by the total amount of light entering the tank. We concluded that predicted climate changes might promote regime shifts in tropical aquatic ecosystems by shaping their structure and the relative importance of other regulating factors.

Highlights

  • Ecosystems face many concurrent stressors which may cause great changes in their functioning

  • The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values used in the bimodality approach showed that in all rainfall scenarios two classes best described the distribution of chlorophyll-a (Fig 2)

  • In Ambient rainfall scenario, the number of bromeliads dominated by algae was up to 5 folds greater than in High clustering (HC) rainfall scenario (Fig 3)

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Summary

Introduction

Ecosystems face many concurrent stressors which may cause great changes in their functioning. It has been proposed that climate change and biodiversity loss could promote large shifts in natural ecosystems compromising important ecological services [1,2,3]. Tropical aquatic ecosystems are affected by these two stressors since most of them are only fed by rain and because these ecosystems are prone to high rates of biodiversity loss [4]. Climate models predict that changes in rainfall distribution will be the prevalent change across different areas of the globe, but especially in tropical and high latitude areas [5].

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