Changes In Predation Pressure Research Articles

Effects of the 2014-2016 marine heatwave on Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and implications for top-down forcing

Marine heatwaves can have rapid and wide-reaching biological and economic impacts. We explored the effects of a recent severe marine heatwave on Steller sea lions in the Gulf of Alaska and Southeast Alaska using biennial counts of pups and non-pups from aerial surveys of terrestrial sites between 2013 and 2019. We combined count data with a bioenergetic model to explore the potential effects of Steller sea lion responses to the heatwave on prey populations. Pup production was anomalously low in the eastern and central Gulf in 2017 following the end of the heatwave in 2016, with a 33.5 and 17.4% reduction from 2015 values respectively. Based on the energetic costs of pregnancy and lactation, these reductions in pup production represent an average difference of 6121 metric tons of prey between 2015 and 2017. Non-pup counts were anomalously low in Southeast Alaska in 2017 and in the central and eastern Gulf in 2019. No effects were detected in the western Gulf, although they could have been masked by the variability in count estimates. Such changes in non-pup abundance had the potential to induce changes in predation pressure on the order of thousands to tens of thousands of metric tons of prey, even when responses were assumed to persist for a relatively short time (1 yr or less). In addition to these short-term effects, declining counts of non-pups from the eastern Gulf and Southeast Alaska occurred following the 2014-2016 heatwave, suggesting more lasting effects on Steller sea lion populations and top-down forcing from these regions.

Assessment of toxic effects of imidacloprid on freshwater zooplankton: An experimental test for 27 species

The neonicotinoid pesticide imidacloprid has been used worldwide since 1992. As one of the most important chemicals used in pest control, there have been concerns that its run-off into rivers and lakes could adversely affect aquatic ecosystems, where zooplankton play a central role in the energy flow from primary to higher trophic levels. However, studies assessing the effects of pesticides at the species level have relied on a Daphnia-centric approach, and no studies have been conducted using species-level assessments on a broad range of zooplankton taxa. In the present study, we therefore investigated the acute toxicity of imidacloprid on 27 freshwater crustacean zooplankton (18 cladocerans, 3 calanoid copepods and 6 cyclopoid copepods). The experiment showed that a majority of calanoid copepods and cladocerans were not affected at all by imidacloprid, with the exception of one species each of Ceriodaphnia and Diaphasoma, while all six cyclopoid copepods showed high mortality rates, even at concentrations of imidacloprid typically found in nature. In addition, we found a remarkable intra-taxonomic variation in susceptibility to this chemical. As many cyclopoid copepods are omnivorous, they act as predators as well as competitors with other zooplankton. Accordingly, their susceptibility to imidacloprid is likely to cause different responses at the community level through changes in predation pressure as well as changes in competitive interactions. The present results demonstrate the need for species-level assessments of various zooplankton taxa to understand the complex responses of aquatic communities to pesticide disturbance.

Granivore abundance shapes mutualism quality in plant-scatterhoarder interactions.

Conditional mutualisms involve costs and benefits that vary with environmental factors, but mechanisms driving these dynamics remain poorly understood. Scatterhoarder-plant interactions are a prime example of this phenomenon, as scatterhoarders can either increase or reduce plant recruitment depending on the balance between seed dispersal and predation. We explored factors that drive the magnitude of net benefits for plants in this interaction using a mathematical model, with parameter values based on European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and yellow-necked mice (Apodemus flavicollis). We measured benefits as the percentage of germinating seeds, and examined how varying rodent survival (reflecting, e.g. changes in predation pressure), the rate of seed loss to other granivores, the abundance of alternative food resources, and changes in masting patterns affect the quality of mutualism. We found that increasing granivore abundance can degrade the quality of plant-scatterhoarder mutualism due to increased cache pilferage. Scatterhoarders are predicted to respond by increasing immediate consumption of gathered seeds, leading to higher costs and reduced benefits for plants. Thus, biotic changes that are detrimental to rodent populations can be beneficial for tree recruitment due to adaptive behavior of rodents. When scatterhoarder populations decline too drastically (< 5 individuals ha-1 ); however, tree recruitment may also suffer.

Seasonal variation in the relative strength of bottom-up &lt;em&gt;vs&lt;/em&gt; top-down effects in pelagic cladoceran populations identified through contribution analysis of birth rate

Pelagic freshwater communities are characterized by the presence of strong trophic interactions, with the dominance of either food limitation (bottom-up effect) or predation pressure (top-down effect) alternating in time. Though this temporal variation should have a major impact on zooplankton dynamics, few studies have examined it. We consider here an approach that involves identifying signatures of food availability and size-selective fish predation based on the demographic characteristics of cladoceran populations. The relative strength of top-down vs bottom-up effects was assessed on short sampling intervals as contributions of the proportion of adults and fecundity, respectively, to the resulting change in birth rate. The dominant effect on each sampling interval was determined based on the absolute value of the ratio of those contributions (R). From previous experiments, we expected that under the dominant effect of food, R should be less than unity, while under fish predation it should be 1 &lt; R &lt; 3.4. We analyzed two datasets – one collected for a pelagic cladoceran community of three species, and another retrieved from the published data for Daphnia catawba in 1986. In the former case, the temporal variation in the dominant effect was assumed from the pattern of cladoceran populationdynamics as well as limited data on zooplankton consumption by planktivorous fish; in the latter case, the seasonal change in predation pressure by fish on the daphnids was known from the original data. Our results show that the probability density functions for R values from the two datasets indicate an increased probability of the ratio values associated with the abovementioned ranges, suggesting that both bottom-up and top-down effects should have been driving cladoceran population dynamics during the study periods. Based on the results of the Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), the fitted R values for the most abundant species from the first dataset - Bosmina longirostris - changed from the values indicative of strong food effect at the beginning of the study period to those indicative of strong top-down effect when fish with substantial numbers of bosminids in the gut were caught. In the second dataset, for the two time intervals associated with increased predation pressure by fish, the fitted R values were predominantly located between 1 and 3.4, as expected. For both datasets, our results indicate that contribution analysis of birth rate can be used as an informative, albeit preliminary, tool to identify trophic interactions driving zooplankton seasonal population fluctuations in freshwater communities.

Effects of dissolved organic carbon gradient on epilimnetic zooplankton communities in lakes

Lake browning is expected to change aquatic ecosystems considerably. The changes that may occur in zooplankton communities with a high concentration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) are little studied and not yet sufficiently understood. We studied zooplankton communities in Finland in 27 lakes with a wide DOC range. We explored how zooplankton diversity and biomass vary along a DOC gradient and how species belonging to different functional groups respond to varying DOC concentrations. The total biomass of zooplankton was not related to DOC concentration, but diversity decreased and the negative linear trend in diversity coincided with an increase in omnivorous zooplankton taxa, whereas several other herbivorous zooplankton taxa were displaced from the community along the gradient of DOC. The results of our study suggest that some well-adapted taxa, especially omnivorous taxa, can benefit from lake browning, but a larger number of taxa suffer from unfavourable conditions caused by high DOC concentration. DOC-induced changes in predation pressure and changes in phytoplankton community in terms of resource availability for zooplankton should be emphasized in future research to understand the effects of lake browning on zooplankton.

Evolution of population dynamics following invasion by a non-native predator.

Invasive predatory species are frequently observed to cause evolutionary responses in prey phenotypes, which in turn may lead to evolutionary shifts in the population dynamics of prey. Research has provided a link between rates of predation and the evolution of prey population growth in the lab, but studies from natural populations are rare. Here, we tested for evolutionary changes in population dynamics parameters of zooplankton Daphnia pulicaria following invasion by the predator Bythotrephes longimanus into Lake Kegonsa, Wisconsin, US. We used a resurrection ecological approach, whereby clones from pre‐ and post‐invasive periods were hatched from eggs obtained in sediment cores and were used in a 3‐month growth experiment. Based on these data, we estimated intrinsic population growth rates (r), the shape of density dependence (θ) and carrying capacities (K) using theta‐logistic models. We found that post‐invasion Daphnia maintained a higher r and K under these controlled, predation‐free laboratory conditions. Evidence for changes in θ was weaker. Whereas previous experimental evolution studies of predator–prey interactions have demonstrated that genotypes that have evolved under predation have inferior competitive ability when the predator is absent, this was not the case for the Daphnia. Given that our study was conducted in a laboratory environment and the possibility for genotype‐by‐environment interactions, extrapolating these apparent counterintuitive results to the wild should be done with caution. However, barring such complications, we discuss how selection for reduced predator exposure, either temporally or spatially, may have led to the observed changes. This scenario suggests that complexities in ecological interactions represents a challenge when predicting the evolutionary responses of population dynamics to changes in predation pressure in natural systems.

Population genetic dynamics during colonisation and establishment of an obligate parthenogenetic Daphnia pulex population in a small lake of a continental archipelago

Abstract Population genetic diversity and structure are known to influence successful colonisation and establishment of a population in a novel habitat. However, our understanding of actual population genetic changes in the early stage of colonisation and detailed time‐series of genetic changes during the establishment of a new population is still limited due to the difficulty of making long‐term direct observations of a colonising population. Using a paleolimnological approach, we revealed the long‐term genetic dynamics of an obligate parthenogenetic panarctic Daphnia pulex population during the early stage of colonisation and subsequent establishment in Lake Fukami‐ike of Nagano, Japan. We collected diapausing eggs in ephippia of D. pulex from layers of sediment core samples (c. 370 cm long; dated 1662–2017) and then the mitochondrial DNA was sequenced using the markers designed for the NADH dehydrogenase 5 (ND5) gene and the control region. Daphnia pulex colonised and established a population in the early 2000s. Population genetic analysis showed that one colonising haplotype predominated in the population throughout the study period. Genetic diversity was consistently limited and there was no recovery of genetic diversity after colonisation. Clearly limited genetic diversity did not hamper population growth, possibly because phenotypic plasticity was used to cope with changes in predation pressure. Analysis using multivariate auto‐regressive models showed that responses to environmental and ecological factors varied depending on the haplotype, which may have contributed to successful colonisation of the lake by the different haplotypes. The present results suggest that an obligate parthenogenetic population can establish in a new habitat and be maintained for generations even though it has limited genetic diversity. We found that two independent lineages (JPN1 and JPN2) successfully established and coexisted toward the end of the study period. Although limited genetic diversity did not impede colonisation success, how the later colonising JPN1 lineage has successfully invaded a population consisting solely of the early colonising JPN2 deserves future attention to understand the population genetic dynamics revealed in this study.

A 40-year perspective of an alpine lake: Is everything the same?

Mountain lakes are the most affected by climate change; however, few of these lakes are regularly sampled because of their remoteness. We discussed limnological data (e.g. water temperature, light transparency, and plankton diversity) of Lake Campo (1944 m above sea level, Adamello Mountains, Italy) scattered over almost forty years in the light of climate change. Specifically, occasional samplings in 1980, 1988, 2016, 2017, and 2018 and more extensive surveys in 1997 and 2015 were carried out. Among the investigated years, 2015 was the warmest. Inter-year variability in water temperature was quite marked in Lake Campo. Water temperature profiles of July (1980, 1997, 2015) showed increased surface warming, while the deeper layers (> 15 m) were always isothermal at around 5 °C. Hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen never decreased below 50 % saturation. Secchi disk depth was not substantially different among years. Summer profiles of light transparency showed discontinuous light attenuation, which was tentatively attributed to algae located in deeper layers. In cluster analysis of phytoplankton and zooplankton data, differences between seasons but not years were found. The autumn decline of Bacillariophyta and the increase of mixotrophic Cryptophyta was linked to decreasing silica concentrations towards autumn. Apart from this general pattern, several observations (e.g. high abundance of Tovellia sanguinea, requiring warmer temperatures and thermal stratification to compete with Bacillariophyta; a spatially extended metalimnetic oxygen maximum in July 2015) showed the effects of particularly warm conditions of 2015 compared to 1997. The continuous presence of crustacean males and first generation of rotifers (Polyarthra f. aptera) hatching from sexual eggs indicated the importance of sexual reproduction in the lake. Length measurements of Daphnia gr. longispina before (1997) and after (2015) non-native fish removal and Arctic char introduction were similar and indicated no apparent change in predation pressure. Studies like this, despite scattered data, can provide valuable insights into the changes mountain lakes undergo through time.

Response of the aquatic invertebrate community to the eradication of an exotic invasive fish 30 years after its introduction into an Iberian alpine lake

In Lake Grande de Penalara, an originally fishless small high mountain lake in the Central Iberian Peninsula, brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) was introduced in the 1970s, and then eradicated 30 years later using gillnets. In this study, we investigated the time-course and changes in macroinvertebrates and zooplankton communities, before and after the eradication, by studying their richness and several biological and ecological traits of macroinvertebrates. Macroinvertebrates richness increased from 13 taxa coexisting with fish, up to a maximum of 27 taxa after the eradication. Rare groups usually affected by fish predation, e.g. swimmers in surface and open waters, showed high dispersal and recolonization capabilities, while those with burrowing, interstitial or crawler habits maintained their presence, and even with the presence of fish given their advantage of hiding from being directly sighted by fish. Taxa with affinities for rare habitats within the lake (e.g. macrophyte beds) occasionally appeared 4–6 years after eradication. In contrast, zooplankton assemblage did not significantly change in richness in the 10 years after eradication. No new species of cladocerans or copepods appeared after fish removal, but 4 new rotifer taxa appeared and 5 disappeared. This was apparently more related to a change in water quality or trophic status as a consequence of the fish removal than to the direct effect of fish removal on rotifers. Zooplankters were significantly smaller, on average, before fish eradication rather than later, indicating that the community responded to the change in predation pressure.

Contrasting effects of urbanization on arboreal and ground-dwelling land snails: role of trophic interactions and habitat fragmentation

Urbanization generally reduces wildlife populations. Individual species responses, however, are often highly variable, and such variability can be explained by differences in species ecological traits. To examine this hypothesis, we focused on two co-occurring land snails, Ezohelix gainesi and Euhadra brandtii sapporo; the former is ground-dwelling and the latter is arboreal. We first estimated their population densities at nine sites distributed along an urbanization gradient: three were located in continuous natural forests, three at the edge of natural forests, and the rest in small isolated forests in urban areas. As a result, the ground-dwelling E. gainesi occurred at highest density in urban forests, followed by forest edges and continuous forests. By contrast, the arboreal E. b. sapporo occurred at highest density in continuous forests, but declined in forest edges and urban forests. We then conducted manipulative field experiments to quantify changes in predation pressure on these species. Ground-tethered E. gainesi and E. b. sapporo were repeatedly predated upon by forest-living mammals in continuous forests, but their survival rates increased in forest edges and urban forests. By contrast, canopy-tethered E. b. sapporo maintained high survival rates in all three forest types. The results indicate that a lack of mammalian predators enables ground-dwelling species to occur at high densities in urban forests, whereas the arboreal species was not affected by this predator relaxation effect. The combination of species-specific behavioural traits and changes in predator communities across an urbanization gradient has important effects on the biodiversity of urban ecosystems.

Ant assemblage composition explains high predation pressure on artificial caterpillars during early night

1. Predator–prey interactions, especially those involving herbivorous insects, are of great importance in maintaining biodiversity. Predation pressure varies temporally in response to prey availability and activity. However, little is known about the patterns and drivers of fluctuations in predation pressure at fine temporal scales.2. Artificial caterpillars (placed on plant leaves at breast height) were used to assess changes in predation pressure across four time intervals of the day in a monsoonal tropical rainforest in south‐west China. The study examined how assemblage composition of arboreal ants, the dominant predators, changed across the same time intervals. The potential linkages between biotic (arboreal ants) and abiotic (temperature and light intensity) factors with predation rate were evaluated.3. Predation rate on caterpillars during the early part of the night (19.00–01.00 hours) was significantly higher than in the morning, afternoon, or late night. Ant assemblage composition, rather than species richness or total abundance, best explained the variations in predation rate on artificial caterpillars.4. The results help to strengthen understanding of trophic interactions by demonstrating that predation pressure fluctuates at finer timescales than previously tested, and that a particular set of ant species may play major roles in predation on caterpillars and possibly other organisms.

The effect of insularity on avian growth rates and implications for insular body size evolution.

Island populations often differ in consistent ways from their mainland counterparts with respect to their ecology, behaviour, morphology, demography and life-history characteristics; a set of changes referred to as the 'island syndrome'. To understand the ecological and evolutionary drivers of the island syndrome requires characterization of suites of interacting traits. While patterns in some types of traits, e.g. body size, are well characterized across a range of taxa, key gaps remain. Growth rate is one such trait, being an important determinant of both increases and decreases in body size, and can vary with changes in predation pressure and food limitation; two factors that are known to differ between mainland and island environments. Using a phylogenetic meta-analytic approach, we characterize differences in growth rates among mainland and island altricial bird populations, controlling for environmental factors. We found a trend towards slower growth on islands in small-bodied (less than 1 kg) bird species. This is consistent with the idea that the pattern of body size increases in small-bodied island colonists is associated with the evolution of slower growth combined with shifts in age and size at maturity in relaxed predation regimes.

Bird mixed‐species flock formation is driven by low temperatures between and within seasons in a Subtropical Andean‐foothill forest

AbstractAccording to both the predation avoidance and foraging efficiency hypotheses, birds within mixed flocks increase their foraging efficiency and/or can spend more time feeding and less time looking out for predators. These hypotheses predict that birds in mixed flocks obtain benefits. Thus, mixed flock formation could serve as a strategy to cope with difficult conditions imposed on birds such as climatic conditions that ultimately result in a change in predation pressure or food resources. We evaluate the hypotheses that forming part of a flock confers benefits to its members and the associated prediction that birds will take advantage of these benefits and flock more often under cold and dry weather conditions between and within seasons to cope with such conditions. We surveyed the presence of mixed flocks, flocking propensity, number of species and individuals in mixed flocks in the Subtropical Yungas foothill of Argentina, to examine seasonality, flocking behavior of birds and their responses to two climatic variables: temperature and humidity. Bird species presented a higher flocking propensity and mixed flocks occurred more frequently during the dry and cold seasons than during the more benign seasons, and lower values of temperature within seasons triggered the flocking behavior. Although effects between seasons were expected, birds also showed a short‐term response to small changes in temperature within seasons. These results strengthen the ideas proposed by the foraging hypothesis. Although benefits derived from flocking have yet to be determined, whatever they are should be understood in the context of seasonal variation in life‐history traits.

Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco‐evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow‐up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top‐down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top‐down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S‐map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top‐down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

Fishing-induced changes in predation pressure by perch (Perca fluviatilis) regulate littoral benthic macroinvertebrate biomass, density, and community structure

We aimed to study whether the varying changes in predation pressure by perch (Perca fluviatilis) reflect the biomass, density, and community structure of the benthic macroinvertebrates. Prey preference is size-dependent, and overall predation pressure is density dependent, and thus the size structure of the P. fluviatilis population should affect the structure of the macroinvertebrate community, and the population density of P. fluviatilis should reflect the overall density of benthic macroinvertebrates. We sampled the littoral benthic community in a boreal lake that had been divided into two parts that were subjected to two different fishing procedures during 2007–2012 period and analyzed the macroinvertebrate diet of fish. The benthic macroinvertebrate community reflected the predation pressure. Total macroinvertebrate biomass increased during the study period in the lake division with a non-size-selective fishing procedure (NSF), i.e., all invertivorous perch size-classes targeted, but decreased in the section with negatively size-selective fishing procedure (SSF), i.e., large invertivorous individuals ≥ 16 cm were not targeted. This difference was a result of the increase in large-sized species, such as Odonata, for the NSF procedure and decrease in the SSF procedure. In contrast to total biomass, total macroinvertebrate density did not show a response to predator size structure but rather total macroinvertebrate density decreased with increasing fish density. The study demonstrates the effect of predation pressure of P. fluviatilis on benthic communities, thus highlighting the keystone predator role of the species in boreal lakes and gives more insight on the multiple effects of fish predation on littoral benthic communities.

The impacts of overwintered green frog larvae on wood frog embryo mortality under a wetter climate

Abstract For many species, the distribution and quantity of habitat is likely to be altered under climate change scenarios. Globally, temperatures are expected to increase, but changes in precipitation will be variable with some locations expected to receive more and other locations to receive less. The amount and timing of precipitation has a strong influence on wetland hydroperiod, which is a critical factor in determining wetland use by species of pond‐breeding amphibians. Past research has focused on the direct effects of reductions in precipitation and shorter hydroperiods, such as larvae desiccation, but little attention has been given to the indirect consequences of increased precipitation and longer hydroperiods, such as changes in predation pressure. We used wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus), a species that typically breeds in ephemeral (temporary) wetlands, to test the hypothesis that increased precipitation and permanent wetlands would indirectly increase mortality in wood frog embryos through increases in the density of embryo predators, second‐year green frog larvae (Lithobates clamitans), limnephilid and phryganeid caddisfly larvae and red‐spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens). We conducted translocation experiments in 2014 and 2015. We monitored wood frog embryo hatch success and mortality from predation using open (predator access) and closed (predators excluded) cages in 16 wetlands in each year. We observed no difference in embryo hatch success between ephemeral and permanent wetlands, with water temperature, not pH, affecting hatch rates. Wood frog embryos in permanent wetlands with overwintered second‐year green frog larvae had higher mortality from predation (0.80, 95% confidence intervals 0.65–0.91) than permanent wetlands (0.42, CI 0.26–0.60) and ephemeral wetlands (0.37, CI 0.31–0.45) that lacked predatory green frog larvae. Embryo mortality from predation increased with increasing green frog larvae density. Regression models showed that ponds with larvae densities &gt;2.5 larvae m−2 resulted in 90% embryo mortality. Caddisfly larvae and red‐spotted newt density had no effect, and pond water temperature had a weak negative effect on embryo mortality from predation. Under a wetter and warmer climate, springtime occupancy of predatory green frog larvae is likely to increase, resulting in a reduction in the amount of suitable wood frog breeding habitat. Our research suggests that indirect effects of climate change mediated through biotic interactions may play a critical role in the distribution of ephemeral wetland species.

Post-smolt survival of Baltic salmon in context to changing environmental conditions and predators

The survival of Baltic salmon Salmo salar during the first year at sea (post-smolt stage) has declined since the beginning of the 1990s. In this analysis, we complement previous studies on possible causes of this decline by considering a suite of environmental parameters, potential change in predation pressure, and post-smolt growth. Marine survival estimates were found to be negatively correlated with temperature, indicating that warming conditions have not favoured survival. Survival was also found to be positively correlated with dissolved oxygen levels and regionally related to shifts in salinity. These relationships were further studied in context to the potential predation on post-smolts by one of the main piscivores in the Baltic, Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias). Concomitant with changes in environmental conditions, Baltic cod has changed its latitudinal range, moving northward in the Baltic, possibly in response to warming conditions. These changes lead us to hypothesize that predation pressure on salmon may have increased in recent years as cod has now occupied habitats used by salmon post-smolts during their southward feeding migrations. This predation may have been intensified as a result of anoxic conditions in the central basin by concentrating predation interactions in coastal waters and/or the upper water column typically occupied by salmon post-smolts. Indicators of post-smolt growth were applied to test the alternate hypothesis that mortality is growth-mediated; these indicators lacked a time series trend, which supports the contention that shifting predation pressure rather than feeding opportunities is responsible for the decline in post-smolt survival in Baltic salmon.

Seeking explanations for recent changes in abundance of wintering Eurasian Wigeon (Anas penelope) in northwest Europe

We analysed annual changes in abundance of EurasianWigeon (Anas penelope) derived frommid-winter InternationalWaterbird Census data throughout its northwest European flyway since 1988 using log-linear Poisson regressionmodelling. Increases in abundance in the north and east of the wintering range (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland), stable numbers in the central range (Belgium,Netherlands,UKand France) and declining abundance in the west and south of the wintering range (Spain and Ireland) suggest a shift in wintering distribution consistent with milder winters throughout the range. However, because over 75% of the population of over 1 million individuals winters in Belgium, the Netherlands, UK and France, there was no evidence for a major movement in the centre of gravity of the wintering distribution. Between-winter changes in overall flyway abundance were highly significantly positively correlated (P = 0.003) with reproductive success measured by age ratios in Danish hunter wing surveys and less strongly and inversely correlated (P = 0.05) with mean January temperatures in the centre of the wintering range, suggesting thatwinter severitymay also contribute to influence survival. However, adding winter severity to a model predicting population size based on annual reproductive success alone did not contribute tomore effectivelymodelling the observed changes in population size. Patterns in annual reproductive success seem therefore to largely explain the recent dynamics in population size of northwest European Wigeon. Summer NAO significantly and positively explained 27% of variance in annual breeding success. Other local factors such as eutrophication of breeding sites and changes in predation pressure undoubtedly contribute to changes in the annual production of young and differences in hunting pressure as well as winter severity affect annual survival rates. However, it seems likely that the observed flyway population trend since 1988 has been mostly influenced by climate effects on the breeding grounds affecting reproductive success and marginally on the winter quarters affecting survival. We urge improved demographic monitoring of the population to better assess annual survival and reproductive success.We also recommend development of an adaptive management framework to remove uncertainties in our knowledge of Wigeon population dynamics as information is forthcoming to better informmanagement, especially to attempt to harmonise the harvest with annual changes in demography to ensure sustainable exploitation of this important quarry species now and in the future.

Marine bacterial community structure resilience to changes in protist predation under phytoplankton bloom conditions.

To test whether protist grazing selectively affects the composition of aquatic bacterial communities, we combined high-throughput sequencing to determine bacterial community composition with analyses of grazing rates, protist and bacterial abundances and bacterial cell sizes and physiological states in a mesocosm experiment in which nutrients were added to stimulate a phytoplankton bloom. A large variability was observed in the abundances of bacteria (from 0.7 to 2.4 × 10(6) cells per ml), heterotrophic nanoflagellates (from 0.063 to 2.7 × 10(4) cells per ml) and ciliates (from 100 to 3000 cells per l) during the experiment (∼3-, 45- and 30-fold, respectively), as well as in bulk grazing rates (from 1 to 13 × 10(6) bacteria per ml per day) and bacterial production (from 3 to 379 μg per C l per day) (1 and 2 orders of magnitude, respectively). However, these strong changes in predation pressure did not induce comparable responses in bacterial community composition, indicating that bacterial community structure was resilient to changes in protist predation pressure. Overall, our results indicate that peaks in protist predation (at least those associated with phytoplankton blooms) do not necessarily trigger substantial changes in the composition of coastal marine bacterioplankton communities.

How will the greening of the Arctic affect an important prey species and disturbance agent? Vegetation effects on arctic ground squirrels.

Increases in terrestrial primary productivity across the Arctic and northern alpine ecosystems are leading to altered vegetation composition and stature. Changes in vegetation stature may affect predator-prey interactions via changes in the prey's ability to detect predators, changes in predation pressure, predator identity and predator foraging strategy. Changes in productivity and vegetation composition may also affect herbivores via effects on forage availability and quality. We investigated if height-dependent effects of forage and non-forage vegetation determine burrowing extent and activity of arctic ground squirrels (Urocitellus parryii). We collected data on burrow networks and activity of arctic ground squirrels across long-term vegetation monitoring sites in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska. The implications of height-specific cover of potential forage and non-forage vegetation on burrowing behaviour and habitat suitability for arctic ground squirrels were investigated using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Increased cover of forbs was associated with more burrows and burrow systems, and higher activity of systems, for all forb heights. No other potential forage functional group was related to burrow distribution and activity. In contrast, height-dependent negative effects of non-forage vegetation were observed, with cover over 50-cm height negatively affecting the number of burrows, systems and system activity. Our results demonstrate that increases in vegetation productivity have dual, potentially counteracting effects on arctic ground squirrels via changes in forage and vegetation stature. Importantly, increases in tall-growing woody vegetation (shrubs and trees) have clear negative effects, whereas increases in forb should benefit arctic ground squirrels.