Local Climate Change Research Articles

Climate change may alter the signal of plant facilitation in Mediterranean drylands

Facilitation is an ecological interaction that has allowed plant lineages to survive past climate aridification. This same interaction can be expected to buffer the effects of current climate change, which is tending to become more arid in the Mediterranean basin. However, facilitation may wane when stress conditions are extreme. Here we argue that the erosion of the facilitation signal between Quercus ilex and its nurses detected by García‐Fayos et al. (2020) along 50 years in the eastern Iberian Peninsula may have been due to the reversion of facilitation to competition imposed by an increasingly arid climate. To support this speculation, we reconstructed the climatic niche of Q. ilex and its nurses as well as the local climate change occurring in the populations studied. We found that the decreasing trend in precipitation is pushing Q. ilex out of its climatic optimum in the stressful (semi‐arid) but not in the mild (sub‐humid) habitats. These results suggest that facilitation will be unable to mitigate the effects of climate change, especially those related to aridification. However, other scenarios linking climatic change with herbivory and rural abandonment should be considered to fully understand the past, present and future of facilitation interactions. Reconstructing past interactions can serve as an early warning signal about the future of populations in the face of climate change.

Evaluating seawater intrusion forecast uncertainty under climate change in the Pajaro Valley, California

Climate change and climate variability impacts such as rising sea levels have the potential to exacerbate seawater intrusion and the strain on coastal freshwater resources in already stressed groundwater basins such as those in the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin, California. Regional hydrologic models are often coupled with climate projections to forecast future hydrologic conditions and inform adaptive resources management strategies. However, there is high uncertainty in the future projections of water resources due to uncertainties from downscaling global general circulation models (GCMs) to local scale climate change projections, future land use changes, and the inherent uncertainty of developed hydrologic models. Future climate projections and the magnitude of their influence on modeled hydrologic drivers are highly variable. Therefore, to develop a forecast model, an ensemble of different projections can be used to capture a wider range of basin responses and the associated uncertainties in the modeled forecasts. Understanding the reliability and uncertainty of forecasts is important for developing climate adaptation strategies such as developing protective thresholds, particularly at the basin scale where the impacts are felt, and adaptation is implemented. To demonstrate this, an uncertainty analysis of groundwater level and seawater intrusion forecasts for the Pajaro Valley groundwater basin was performed using an ensemble of three future climate projections with the Pajaro Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (PVIHM) and the first-order second moment (FOSM) method. FOSM uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasts across a multi-GCM climate ensemble provides an upper and lower bound of potential impacts of climate change on sustainability targets related to mitigating seawater intrusion. The groundwater level forecasts’ narrow range of variability can help policymakers in adaptation planning by constraining possible outcomes to a focused range for risk-management decisions. However, less than one-third of groundwater level forecasts met the current protection thresholds to prevent chronic lowering of groundwater. Therefore, sustainability targets may need to be reassessed. Relative to groundwater level changes, the seawater intrusion forecasts had larger uncertainty due to the GCM climate projections and the simulated hydrologic response that were compounded by the propagation of scaling and bias from the GCMs and model simplifications in simulating the coastal boundary.

Surface-atmosphere energy exchanges and their effects on surface climate and atmospheric boundary layer characteristics in the forest-tundra ecotone in northwestern Canada

The circumpolar forest-tundra ecotone is experiencing rapid changes in vegetation composition and structure. Collectively, these changes modify surface-atmosphere energy exchanges and thus characteristics of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL). Here, we characterize differences in bulk surface properties and resulting energy balance components using multi-year eddy covariance and supporting measurements made at a mineral upland tundra and a nearby subarctic woodland site between 2013 and 2022. The two sites are characteristic of the forest-tundra ecotone of northwestern Canada. A mixed-layer slab model, in combination with radiosonde observations, was used to gain more insights into differences in ABL characteristics. Compared to the tundra, the tree cover of the woodland led to an enhanced ability to transfer heat into the atmosphere, a higher resistance to evapotranspiration and a stronger coupling between surface and atmosphere. Sensible heat flux (H) was generally higher at the woodland than at the tundra. The largest difference in daily mean H was observed in late winter and spring when the albedo of the snow-covered landscape at the woodland was reduced by 45% compared to the tundra. Both sites experienced similar latent heat flux throughout the year. At the woodland, modelled afternoon air temperature in the mixed layer was up to 9 °C higher in spring and up to 3 °C higher in summer compared to the tundra. In accordance with model results, radiosonde observations indicated a deeper ABL and higher air temperature at the woodland. The presence of trees in the southern part of the forest-tundra ecotone increases air temperature throughout the year and has a drying effect in spring. Consequently, vegetation shifts in the forest-tundra ecotone can be expected to modify local surface climate change patterns, which must be considered when assessing climate change impacts in the region.

ANALISIS DAMPAK PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAN LAHAN PERKOTAAN TERHADAP URBAN HEAT ISLAND DI KECAMATAN KEDATON

The Urban Heat Island phenomenon is defined as a form of local climate change. In the formation of the Urban Heat Island phenomenon, there are several factors, namely changes in land use, vegetation density, building density, and vehicle emissions. Dense development areas that have caused changes in land use, settlements, and transportation activities have begun to accumulate in Kedaton District. Kedaton District is included in the activity center area so that changes in land use from 2017 to 2022 occur significantly, which can cause an increase in urban temperatures. This study aims to analyze the impact of changes in urban land use on Urban Heat Island in Kedaton District. The variables used are land use, surface temperature, vegetation density, building density, motor vehicle intensity, and motor vehicle emissions. The analytical methods used are LST, NDVI, NDBI, road service level analysis, vehicle emission analysis, and correlation analysis. The results of the analysis show that the impact of changes in land use will result in a 76% decrease in vegetation density in 2022, a 95% increase in building density, and a 99% increase in vehicle emissions. The impact of changes in land use has contributed to the distribution of urban heat islands in Kedaton District. To minimize the impact of changes in use on the Urban Heat Island in Kedaton District, mitigation efforts based on the resilient city concept are needed, namely the addition of private green open spaces, reflective roof paint in densely populated areas, and optimizing public transportation.

Depleting spring sources in the Himalayas: Environmental drivers or just perception?

Study regionRangun Khola Watershed, Mahakali River Basin, Far Western Nepal. Study focusWe mapped and examined the status of 1122 springs in a typical mid-hill watershed in the Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal. Land use/cover trajectory analysis, quantification of climate change indices, analysis of spring flow trends and community perception were used to understand the changing dynamics of the mountain springs. New hydrological insights73% of the springs show a continuous declining trend in flow, with 2% already dried up. Land fragmentation between 1990 and 2018 due to the conversion to agricultural land causes landscape disturbances in the spring vicinities, affecting natural spring flows. Climate data assessment revealed a significant increase in temperature and frequency of localised high-intensity rainfall. Local climate and land use change are concurrent with drying spring sources and consistent with the local community's perceived manifestation of changes. Moreover, the growing population and haphazard rural road expansion are overexploiting and disturbing the spring resources. Drying spring sources are leading to implications on water availability and accessibility for livelihood activities, exacerbating gendered vulnerability to climate change. However, the government and local households are lagging in taking direct actions to mitigate the problem, increasing the likelihood of critical long-term consequences for the ecosystem and the local economy in Rangun Khola and similar watersheds in the Himalayas.

Understanding climate changes in East Asia and Europe based on spatial climate analogs

Spatial climate analogs effectively illustrate how a location’s climate may become more similar to that of other locations from the historical period to future projections. Also, novel climates (emerging climate conditions significantly different from the past) have been analyzed as they may result in significant and unprecedented ecological and socioeconomic impacts. This study analyzes historical to future spatial climate analogs across East Asia and Europe, in the context of climatic impacts on ecology and human health, respectively. Firstly, the results of climate analogs analysis for ecological impacts indicate that major cities in East Asia and Europe have generally experienced novel climates and climate shifts originating from southern/warmer regions from the early 20th century to the current period, primarily attributed to extensive warming. In future projections, individual cities are not expected to experience additional significant climate change under a 1.5 °C global warming (warming relative to pre-industrial period), compared to the contemporary climate. In contrast, robust local climate change and climate shifts from southern/warmer regions are expected at 2.0 °C and 3.0 °C global warming levels. Specially, under the 3.0 °C global warming, unprecedented (newly emerging) climate analogs are expected to appear in a few major cities. The climate analog of future projections partially align with growing season length projections, demonstrating important implications on ecosystems. Human health-relevant climate analogs exhibit qualitatively similar results from the historical period to future projections, suggesting an increasing risk of climate-driven impacts on human health. However, distinctions emerge in the specifics of the climate analogs analysis results concerning ecology and human health, emphasizing the importance of considering appropriate climate variables corresponding to the impacts of climate change. Our results of climate analogs present extensive information of climate change signals and spatiotemporal trajectories, which provide important indicators for developing appropriate adaptaion plans as the planet warms.

Addressing climate change in high school in Senhor do Bonfim - BA: a commitment to a sustainable future

This article discusses the need to address climate change in high school education in Senhor do Bonfim, Bahia, focusing on Cartography as an educational tool. Initially, it presents the global relevance of climate change and emphasizes the importance of addressing it at the local level. The general objective of this article is to discuss how the approach to climate change in Senhor do Bonfim's high school can contribute to a sustainable future. The specific objective is to demonstrate how the use of Cartography as an educational tool can increase students' awareness of local and global climate change. The article highlights the global relevance of climate change, highlighting that this is a challenge that affects the entire planet. However, it underscores the importance of addressing climate change at the local level, as local communities are also affected by extreme weather events and environmental degradation. To this end, the methodology used follows the dialectical critical line with a qualitative approach. To work on the concepts, a bibliographic survey was conducted, focusing on issues such as climate change, Cartography, and environmental preservation. The methodological procedure used was a case study of a field trip to Serra do Gado Bravo with high school students in the municipality in question, which served as the basis for the development of this work.

Variations in Maximum and Minimum Temperature in Mount Qomolangma during 1971–2020

Based on the daily maximum and minimum temperature observational data during 1971–2020, the variabilities of the maximum and minimum temperature of Mount Qomolangma are analyzed. The daily maximum temperature is 25.8 °C and the daily minimum temperature is −31.4 °C during the study period in Mount Qomolangma. Overall, there has been an upward trend with decadal laps for both maximum and minimum temperature. On monthly, seasonal, and annual scales, neither maximum temperature nor minimum temperature time series exhibit an increasing trend from 1971 to 2020. The increasing trends in monthly minimum temperature are even more pronounced than those in maximum temperature. Abrupt changes are noted in both monthly, seasonal, and annual maximum and minimum temperature time series. Specifically, an abrupt change in annual maximum temperature occurred in the 1980s, while an abrupt change in annual minimum temperature occurred in the 1990s. Differences between the north and south slope of Mount Qomolangma are evident, with temperature fluctuations of the north slope being more extreme than those of south slope. The seasonal and annual maximum temperature of the north slope is higher than that of the south slope, except for winter, and the seasonal and annual minimum temperatures of the north slope are all lower than those of the south slope. The tendences of maximum and minimum temperatures in the north slope are more dominant than those in the south slope. The findings are beneficial for understanding the characteristics of local climate change on the Tibetan plateau and to underscore the significant role of Mount Qomolangma in the context of global warming.

Local climate change action plans in France: between formal compliance and grassroots appropriation

ABSTRACT This article examines the process of producing and appropriating climate action plans in rural and semi-rural territories of Nouvelle Aquitaine, France. The aim is to ascertain whether and how the political construction of climate change as a policy issue takes place at a local scale. Based on qualitative interviews analyzed from a constructivist perspective, this research first highlights a hiatus between, on the one hand, a standardized and stereotyped process made compulsory by France’s central government and, on the other, the variety of degrees of appropriation of this state’s goals found in the localities studied. We analyze the factors explaining these differences and conclude that, crucially, even in the areas where framings of climate change are the most favorable for action by local government, politicization of the public problem to be addressed at the local scale has rarely taken place. In so doing, our analysis contributes to a comparative study of local government climate change governance, to how it is affected by national–local relations, and to a more general literature on the politicization and depoliticization of public policy and its making.

Developing behavioral models of citizens for adapting to and mitigating climate change: a study on four prefectures in Japan

Individual behaviors of citizens are important for implementing the necessary measures for adapting to climate change. However, studies on the adaptive behaviors of ordinary citizens are limited. Therefore, in this study, we developed behavioral models to understand individual behaviors for adaption to and mitigation of climate change. We compared four behavior groups, namely, G1, individual mitigation; G2, individual adaptive; G3, long-term adaptive; and G4, solar-energy system installation behaviors. Following a questionnaire survey for the four behavioral groups, behavioral models were developed using structural equation modeling, which considered psychological factors along with selected attitudes, perceived effectiveness, norms, benefits, practicality, and intention. Furthermore, we considered the recognition and attribution of local climate change as key factors for adaptation behaviors toward local climate change. The behaviors of citizens in four prefectures in Japan, namely, Nagano, Tokyo, Saitama, and Kanagawa were considered. Among them, Nagano Prefecture, wherein the implementation of adaptation measures was at a low level while that of mitigation measures was at a high level, showed a differing trend. In the behavioral models, the recognition of local climate change directly affected the behavior of citizens in the individual adaptive behavior group. In both the individual adaptive and long-term adaptive behavior groups, the impact of benefits was substantial, with significant differences across local areas. Thus, effective adaptation strategies might involve tangible and familiar examples demonstrating the consequences of behavior, thus enhancing citizens' behavior evaluation perception and fostering its acceptance as a desirable behavior. Tailoring adaptation strategies to specific local contexts might also be necessity. To encourage citizens to adapt to climate change and its impacts, we propose two-way efforts, instead of providing one-way information, by supporting citizens to think about self-help and mutual help effectively. Our study can serve as a reference for future studies focusing on citizen behavior about climate change mitigation and enhance their adaptation for locally implemented strategies.

Evaluation of atmospheric indicators in the Adriatic coastal areas: a multi-hazards approach for a better awareness of the current and future climate

Increasing climate resilience to global warming is one of the main challenges of the last few decades. Effective local measures have to be adopted to provide concrete solutions to the current and expected impacts of climate change. This is the goal of the AdriaClim Italia-Croatia Interreg Project (https://www.italy-croatia.eu/web/adriaclim), aimed at supporting the development of regional and local climate change adaptation plans for the Adriatic coastal regions. For this purpose, an exhaustive number of atmospheric climate indicators have been identified and evaluated across nine pilot areas to assess the current and expected main climate hazards affecting these regions, considering the worst-case emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5). The proposed analyses are provided by the results of the regional climate atmospheric model developed within the AdriaClim Project. The selected climate indicators are used to assess the possible evolution of the climate hazard across the pilot areas, covering different hazards, such as thermal discomfort, drought, and hydrological instability. A site-dependent investigation of the atmospheric climate indicators is proposed to emphasize which regions are more affected than others by the investigated climate hazards, thus warranting more attention in defining and proposing new adaptation strategies. The results highlight increasing temperatures (up to +3°C) across the Adriatic coastal regions, with more emphasis on the Northern Adriatic, where the combined effect with the relevant decrease in precipitation (down to −2 mm/day) may lead to severe drought conditions in the coming decades. In contrast, precipitation-related diseases may hit more Central and South Italy than the Northern Adriatic, except for the Emilia-Romagna region, which is found to be highly sensitive to both hazard categories. Finally, it is relevant to emphasize that these analyses have to be carefully considered in supporting adaptation strategies due to the lack of uncertainty estimates representing a fundamental element for decision-makers.

Breeding colony contraction of Asian openbill stork (Anastomus oscitans): an eco-spatial monitoring from Keleghai River Bank, India.

Asian openbill stork (Anastomus oscitans) colonies and also the numbers were enormous before some decades in some villages beside Keleghai River bank. However, there has been a significant decline in both the colonies and their populations. This present study investigates the rapid decline in the number of breeding colonies and birds, exploring the reasons behind this phenomenon. To address these inquiries, the study collects perceptions from various stakeholders through extensive field observations and interviews. Expeditions are conducted to comprehend the prevailing situation and associated circumstances. Qualitative observations reveal that human intervention, both direct and indirect, is limiting the development of stork colonies. Data analysis indicates that 37.5% of respondents attribute the contraction of bird colonies to changes in land use, while 26.3% point to the extermination of larger trees along the colony periphery. Additionally, 18.05% of opinions implicate the heavy use of pesticides and fertilizers in the wetland, 6.94% cite local climate change, and 11.11% cite other reasons. To validate the gathered information, the study employed temporal land use land cover (LULC) classification techniques. Random point pattern analysis from Google Image of 2023 is also utilized to reinforce the survey results. It enhances understanding of the spatio-temporal relationship. Subsequently, the study presents the correlation matrix to elucidate the relationship between stork colonies and contributing factors. It provides a clear insight into the underlying situations. Finally, a comparative analysis of the surveyed and spatial analysis information is conducted to detect and validate the perception of stakeholders. Based on these observations, the study formulates conservation measures for the bird habitat and their colonies in the study area.

Climate and land‐use change impacts on cultural use berries: Considerations for mitigative stewardship

Societal Impact StatementCultural use berries are prized foods and medicines across the United States and Canada, with almost 200 different species used by Indigenous Peoples. Berries are increasingly being impacted by environmental and land‐use change. Berry habitats, how and when berry plants reproduce, and the volume of berries available for harvest each year are shifting widely. These changes are impacting access to, availability of, and consumption of berries. Biocultural stewardship practices, like low‐intensity fire, transplanting, and thinning, can be used in response to these stressors to support berry plant health and productivity as well as a sustained relationship with this important food.SummaryAlmost 200 different species of berries are used for food and medicine by Indigenous Peoples, with unparalleled nutritional and cultural significance among plant foods. Environmental and land‐use change is increasingly compromising access to, availability of, and consumption of berries. In this review, I consider (a) how climate and land‐use change are impacting cultural use berries across species and places, as documented by Indigenous Peoples and in the scientific literature, and (b) how stewardship practices are being applied to promote resilience and sustainability in berrying landscapes experiencing stress. Climate impacts on Arctic and subarctic berry species include earlier ripening, changes in taste, or increased variability in abundance. These same regions are experiencing a proliferation of shrubs, while forests throughout the lower 48 and Canada are suffering from suffocating fuel loads and stand densities that are not conducive to berry habitat for many species. In the Pacific West, berries are influenced by prolonged droughts and increasing spring and summer temperatures. Climate change impacts are amplified by shifts in land use for forestry and agriculture. Biocultural stewardship practices, like low‐intensity fire, thinning, transplanting, and cultural care, can be used to mitigate these impacts and promote berry microclimate habitats. There is opportunity for intertribal networking and knowledge sharing around berry stewardship practices that will support local and regional climate change responses.

The Impact of Climate Change on Household Food Security (Afghanistan): A Review

Climate change is predicted to adversely affect agricultural yields, particularly in Asian countries, where crop production heavely relies on environmental factors such as rainfall and temperature. However, there have been limited studies on the effects of climate change dynamics on food security in Asia, particularly at the household level. Consequently We conducte analysis of local climatic changes, the status of household food security, climate-related causes of food insecurity, food security determinants and the adaptation strategies employed by local farmers. The research revealed that the Climate change over the last three decades negitively impacted the food security status of households. Crop production faced constraints due to inadequate rainfall, severe erosion and rising temperatures. Additionaly factors such as unpredictability of rainfall, pests and diseases further contributed to the challenges. Using the calorie intake approach, 60.5% of sampled respondents were food insecure. Further analysis utalizing the logistic regression model showed that age and family size, as well as the amount of cultivated land and rainfall, were the significant (p < 0.05) factors influencing household food security status. A substantial proportion (69.8%) of farmers incorporated adapting strategies into farm management parctice. These strategies included improved use of crop varieties and livestock production, in addition to income diversification. Taken together, these findings show that improving climate change awareness, facilitating the participation of female-led households in income generation and strengthening existing adaptation measures have positive impacts on food security.

Nature's contributions to human well‐being under climate change: Evidence from Central and Eastern Madagascar

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change has an unprecedented impact on ecosystems and their services, with severe consequences for human well‐being, particularly for the marginalised and vulnerable members of society in the Global South. The well‐being of communities relies not only on material and regulating services ecosystems provide but also on non‐material services. In this paper, we unravel the diverse ways that climate change impacts affect Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) and the well‐being of rural populations in four sites in Madagascar—a biodiversity hotspot but one of the economically poorest countries in the world. We conducted participatory community workshops, mapping and semi‐structured interviews with local residents across social subgroups to understand the mechanisms of climate‐related degradation and the resulting impacts on different dimensions of human well‐being through an NCP lens. We found that non‐material services are generally more often associated with well‐being effects. Climate change degrades material and non‐material services through sea level rise, biodiversity loss, drought, precipitation and temperature variability, with consequences for materials, companionship and labour, food and feed, and physical and psychological experiences. Loss of land and forests is expressed through ecological grief. The outcome of our research provides evidence‐based information to local policymakers, conservation practitioners, and climate change agencies. This information can help improve government efforts toward holistic conservation and climate change adaptation by addressing the impacts on the physical and mental well‐being of the most vulnerable communities. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Towards environmental sustainability: further evidences from decarbonization projects in Kenya’s Blue Economy

Kenya is committed to the global efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation as seen through investments in various sustainable green and blue economy projects. In this review paper, we present the current status of what has been done, particularly on the blue carbon offset initiatives undertaken in the mangrove and seaweed ecosystems as well as the decarbonization activities at the port of Mombasa and which should form reference information for local, regional, bilateral/multilateral partners, scientists and other climate change stakeholders. The blue carbon offset projects involve mangrove conservation, reforestation and carbon credit sale as well as seaweed farming. The initiatives have several unique features amongst which are the community-led income generation systems that simultaneously act as an inducement for ecosystem preservation, co-management and benefits sharing which are recipes for economic, socio-cultural, and environmental sustainability. A notable project impact is the conferment of economic power to the locals, particularly the women and the youth The model used embraces a collaborative approach involving multisectoral engagements of both the government, multilateral organizations, NGOs, and local communities. This integrated top-down (government) and bottom-up (local community) method deliberately targets the strengthening of economic development while ensuring sustainability.

Measuring It, Managing It, Fixing It? Data and Rights in Transnational and Local Climate Change Governance

AbstractThe Paris Agreement, related intergovernmental decisions, and transnational climate change governance initiatives mobilize data as a means of measuring, managing, and addressing changing climatic conditions. At the same time, the Paris Agreement formally acknowledges the human rights implications of the unfolding climate crisis. Given the reliance on data and rights in climate change governance, the aim of this article is twofold. Firstly, it analyzes how processes of datafication at transnational and local levels promise, yet struggle, to render the climate governable. Secondly, the article critically reflects on the capacity of human rights to complement datafied governance processes meaningfully – specifically, in what ways rights can (and cannot) alleviate local concerns regarding datafication. Methodologically, the article develops a perspective that foregrounds situated sense-making and experience in place. It is based on an empirical case study of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy, a transnational alliance of cities that have committed to working towards the goals of the Paris Agreement; and it engages with ethnographic literature that conceptualizes rights as lived forms of meaning-making, articulation, struggle, and resistance. Attending to place, the article confronts problematic assumptions about the universality, neutrality, and representativeness of data and rights, raising critical questions about their capacity to ‘govern’ climate change.

Utilizing synoptic scale climate data within sustainable tourism development

Tourism has great potential to be used as a tool towards achieving sustainable development. The appropriate implementation of sustainable tourism methods helps to establish local economic viability in concert with attentive treatment of both social and environmental systems. Maintaining such environmental and social integrity within a location is often the basis by which tourism demand is generated—drawing tourists from across the world. In this paper, we specifically address the use of climate information within Nepal where tourism in the Himalayas is driven by the human-nature interface and the unique culture which has developed in this alpine environment. In doing so, we highlight how focusing on a synoptic scale climatological analysis can provide valuable information within a sustainable tourism development context. Literature has established that tourists operate in ‘realms’ of climatic comfort that might be readily described through synoptic-scale atmospheric phenomena using descriptors such as ‘humid cool’ and ‘warm humid’ conditions. Variables of the Gridded Weather Typing Classification (GWTC-2) are used to describe local climate and climate change. Analyzing weather and climate data within a tourist-centric synoptic-scale context provides a new perspective to more fully understand sustainable development within the weather, climate, and tourism nexus.

Kilometer-scale trends, variability, and extremes of the Adriatic far-future climate (RCP 8.5, 2070−2100)

Due to orography-driven dynamics at a (sub-)kilometer scale (e.g., the bora wind) and a complex ocean bathymetry that includes numerous channels, depressions and ridges, the atmosphere-ocean dynamics within the semi-enclosed Adriatic region is not well reproduced by the available regional climate models. The Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) kilometer-scale atmosphere-ocean model was thus specifically developed to accurately assess the Adriatic climate hazards under both historical (1987-2017) and far-future (2070-2100) conditions. In this study, we analyze the impact of climate change on the projected Adriatic trends, variability and extreme events. In the atmosphere, our results mostly follow the already published literature: strong land-sea contrasts, increased droughts and extreme rainfall events, and decreased wind speeds in the coastal areas. In the ocean, strong and constant rise in surface and intermediate temperatures is associated with salinity decrease, except in surface during summer when salinity rises in the coastal areas. At the bottom and for the ocean circulation, our results exhibit strong contrasts. In the coastal areas, bottom temperature rises, and bottom salinity decreases at the same rate than in surface while changes in current speed are negligible. In the deepest part of the Adriatic, negative bottom temperature trends result in a rise 2.5°C slower than in surface while bottom salinity increases. Further, ocean currents accelerate in the surface and intermediate layers but decelerate at the bottom. These ocean results suggest a reduction of the dense water formation in the northern Adriatic, an intensification and shrinking of the southern Adriatic cyclonic gyre, and a strengthening of the vertical stratification in the deepest part of the Adriatic probably linked to changes in the Adriatic-Ionian water mass exchanges. Given the potential impact of these changes on the Adriatic coastal communities and marine life, this study highlights the need to increase the ongoing kilometer-scale modelling efforts in the Adriatic region with the aim to implement policies and adaptation plans better tailored to the local climate changes projected in this specific region.

Once again about “global warming” and “greenhouse gases”

An analysis was carried out of documents adopted at international conferences from 1992 to 2022 that reflected the current state of the planet’s climate, characterized by an increase in the average global temperature. The validity and effectiveness of the measures that were taken to reduce the rate of increase in the indicated temperature were also analyzed. The analysis took into account data characterizing the state of the climate on the planet over the past 66 million years. An analysis of documents relating to the problem of “global warming” shows that too much responsibility is placed on human activity and too little attention is paid to natural factors. At the same time, as evidence, they operate with data of several decades, in the best case, two or three centuries. But this is too small a time scale, and in this case, we can only talk about local climate change in different regions and not about global change on the entire planet. Analysis of data on a scale of hundreds of thousands and millions of years shows that periods of both cooling (ice ages) and warming occurred on our planet long before the appearance of humans. At the same time, the Little Ice Age ended only in the middle of the 19th century, and it is quite natural that a warming process is now underway. The main responsibility for global warming lies with anthropogenic influence due to the development of industry, agriculture, and deforestation. Such human activity has led to an increase in the release of so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which ensures an increase in the greenhouse effect—the secondary heating of the atmosphere by long-wave (infrared) radiation from the surface of the planet absorbed by these gases. The main gas responsible for the greenhouse effect is carbon dioxide (CO2). However, it was not taken into account that water vapor has three times the ability to absorb infrared radiation. Also, scientific data obtained from the analysis of core samples recovered from deep wells in Antarctica and Greenland were not taken into account. An analysis of the composition of the air contained in the core showed that the amount of carbon dioxide does not precede warming but comes after warming since 90% of carbon dioxide is dissolved in the World Ocean. When it is heated, a huge amount of carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, and when it gets colder, the oceans easily absorb carbon dioxide. Currently, climate policy is based on inadequate models that have many shortcomings, and giving too much of a role to humans in influencing the climate will not have the expected effect.