Insolation Changes Research Articles

On the Remote Impacts of Mid‐Holocene Saharan Vegetation on South American Hydroclimate: A Modeling Intercomparison

AbstractProxy reconstructions from the mid‐Holocene (MH: 6,000 years ago) indicate an intensification of the West African Monsoon and a weakening of the South American Monsoon, primarily resulting from orbitally‐driven insolation changes. However, model studies that account for MH orbital configurations and greenhouse gas concentrations can only partially reproduce these changes. Most model studies do not account for the remarkable vegetation changes that occurred during the MH, in particular over the Sahara, precluding realistic simulations of the period. Here, we study precipitation changes over northern Africa and South America using four fully coupled global climate models by accounting for the Saharan greening. Incorporating the Green Sahara amplifies orbitally‐driven changes over both regions, and leads to an improvement in proxy‐model agreement. Our work highlights the local and remote impacts of vegetation and the importance of considering vegetation changes in the Sahara when studying and modeling global climate.

Last interglacial seasonal hydroclimate in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region

The Last Interglacial (LIG) experienced substantial changes in seasonal insolation compared with the present day, which may have affected the hydrography and water-mass exchange in the North Sea and Baltic Sea region. Here we investigate the effects of solar radiation and greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing on the regional climate by analyzing model simulations of the LIG (127 ka BP), pre-industrial (PI, 1850 CE), and present-day (PD, 1990 CE) climates. We also interpret the reconstructed seasonal bottom water conditions using benthic foraminifera and geochemistry data.Our simulations reveal that during the LIG, the Baltic Sea region (including the Kattegat and the Danish Straits) experienced more saline and colder bottom waters than those in the PD, in agreement with the reconstruction data. This can be attributed to lower GHG levels and enhanced water exchange of cooler, saline North Sea water into the Baltic Sea during the LIG. The thermocline was stronger during the summer months in the LIG, mainly due to the higher sea surface temperature (SST) compared to that of the PD resulting from increased summer insolation.Further, the temperature anomalies (LIG–PD) show significant inverse correlations with the precipitation–minus–evaporation (P–E) at the Baltic Sea entrance. However, the P–E balance appears to have had minimal impact on salinity changes in the North Sea, the Baltic Proper, and the open sea area. Our findings indicate that monthly surface and bottom water salinity anomalies of LIG-PI exhibit strong positive correlations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies in the Baltic entrance region. During the LIG, a more positive phase of the NAO index in autumn played a crucial role in wind-driven major inflows and led to more intensive water exchange in the North Sea–Baltic Sea region compared to the late Holocene.

Operation and control of a 1-Φ induction machine fed from a typical transformer-less photovoltaic (PV) cells

<p>The work given in this paper illustrates how an adjustable speed 1-Φ induction machine's auxiliary winding is driven. Trina Solar's TSM-250PA05.08 array type model, which is made up of 1 series and 8 parallel-connected photovoltaic (PV) modules, feeds a single induction machine. PV system with perturb and observe (P&O) technique for maximum power point tracking (MPPT) tracking. The induction motor has been controlled using the field-oriented control (FOC) controlling approach. The outcomes of the 1-induction motor simulation were closely related to the parameters of insolation change. The outcomes are taken into account for the system's reaction FOC, which had been demonstrated in electromagnetic torque Te, main and auxiliary winding currents, and motor rotor speed.</p>

Anomalous widespread arid events in Asia over the past 550,000 years.

Records of element ratios obtained from the Maldives Inner Sea sediments provide a detailed view on how the Indian Monsoon System has varied at high-resolution time scales. Here, we present records from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1471 based on a refined chronology through the past 550,000 years. The record's high resolution and a proper approach to set the chronology allowed us to reconstruct changes in the Indian Monsoon System on a scale of anomalies and to verify their relationships with established records from the East Asian Monsoon System. On the basis of Fe/sum and Fe/Si records, it can be demonstrated that the Asia continental aridity tracks sea-level changes, while the intensity of winter monsoon winds responds to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. Furthermore, the anomalies of continental aridity and intensity of winter monsoon winds at millennial-scale events exhibit power in the precession band, nearly in antiphase with Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. These observations indicate that the insolation drove the anomalies in the Indian Summer Monsoon. The good correspondence between our record and the East Asian monsoon anomaly records suggests the occurrence of anomalous widespread arid events in Asia.

Decoupled Indian Summer Monsoon Intensity and Effective Moisture Since the Last Glaciation in Southwest China

AbstractEffective moisture (EM) distribution in the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) region is strongly related to regional topography. An understanding of climate change and the interactions between climate variables can help predict future climate variations. Here, we reconstruct a stack EM record for Southwest China over the past 90 kyr using environmental magnetism in lake sediment. The EM in Southwest China at the orbital scale was closely linked to precession‐induced change in North Hemisphere solar insolation, as well as the ISM variability. However, at the glacial‐interglacial scale, it was decoupled with ISM intensity, being wetter during glacial periods (weakened ISM) and drier during interglacial periods (enhanced ISM). Combined with modern meteorological observations, we suggest that the topographical barrier effect and temperature induced dryness are responsible for the decoupling between ISM intensity and EM. The terrestrial topography and temperature strongly influence EM distribution by altering the dynamics of onshore airflow and evapotranspiration.

Understanding the Variation and Mechanisms of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential over the Western North Pacific during the Past 20 000 Years

Abstract To deepen our understanding of the behavior of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) and its response to various external forcings, we investigate the variation of TC genesis potential over the WNP during the past 20 ka that experienced several large forcings. Using a set of transient simulations and a genesis potential index, our results indicate that TC genesis potential in the storm season shows an overall increase averaged over the WNP during the Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1; ∼17–16 ka) relative to the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently, there is a sharp decrease in genesis potential during the Bølling–Allerød (BA; ∼13.5 ka) relative to the HS1, which is followed by an increase during the Younger Dryas (YD; ∼12.9–11.7 ka). During the Holocene, TC genesis potential shows a slight decrease during the early–middle Holocene (∼11.7–6 ka) and a significant increasing trend afterward. Further analysis shows that the contribution of each genesis factor to the genesis potential change varies greatly with time, which is in turn tied to changes in external forcings. The increased meltwater fluxes dominate the increased genesis potential during the HS1 and YD, whereas all external forcings (i.e., changes in meltwater, ice sheets, CO2, and insolation) contribute to genesis potential change during the BA. The long-term increasing trend from the mid-Holocene to the present is controlled by orbital insolation. These results may help improve our understanding on past TC activity and shed lights on TC response to various external forcings in a long-term future.

Late Quaternary evolution of Daihai Lake in northern China and implications to the variation of the East Asian summer monsoon

Global warming over the past decades has resulted in desiccation of lakes in arid and semi-arid northern China. However, the mechanisms responsible for the sharp fluctuations in water levels for these lakes in this region are still unclear. The water level fluctuations in geological time can provide an analogue to better understand current lake levels’ response to global warming. In this study, a combination of quartz and feldspar luminescence dating techniques was applied to establish the chronologies of two sedimentary sequences related to lake level in the catchment of Daihai Lake, located on the fringe of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) domain. Our objective is to reconstruct the late Quaternary history of lake level fluctuations and provide the interpretations of their causes. The results indicate that two lake-level highstands existed during 130–120 ka and 8-4 ka, at least ∼38 m and 40 m above the current lake level, respectively. We interpret that the lake level variations on multiple timescales in the monsoonal marginal area have primarily been regulated by the EASM intensity and corresponding monsoonal precipitation, while temperature changes may have played a minor role. Moreover, a compilation of existing lake level data reveals that EASM intensity has a complex response to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation on millennial-orbital timescales. Combining precipitation records in central and southern China, the character of rainfall across East Asia during MIS 5 exhibits a dominant tripolar pattern.

Holocene hydroclimatic variability recorded in sediments from Maddox Lake (northern California Coast Range)

AbstractPerspectives on past climate using lake sediments are critical for assessing modern and future climate change. These perspectives are especially important for water-stressed regions such as the western United States. One such region is northwestern California (CA), where Holocene-length hydroclimatic records are scarce. Here, we present a 9000-year, relative lake level record from Maddox Lake (CA) using a multi-indicator approach. The Early Holocene is characterized by variably low lake levels with a brief excursion to wetter climates/relative highstand ca. 8.4–8.06 cal ka BP, possibly related to the 8.2 ka cold event and changing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). From 5.2–0.55 cal ka BP, Maddox Lake experienced a long-term regression, tracking changes in summer-winter insolation, tropical and northeast Pacific SSTs, and the southward migration of the ITCZ. This gradual regression culminated in a pronounced relative lowstand during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (MCA). A marked relative highstand followed the MCA, correlative to the Little Ice Age. The latter reflects a far-field response to North Atlantic volcanism, solar variability, and possibly changes in AMOC and Arctic sea ice extent. Our results further confirm the hydroclimatic sensitivity of northwest California to various forcings including those emanating from the North Atlantic.

Paleoclimatic reconstruction of northwest Himalaya since CE 475 using lake sediments from Tadag Taal, Kumaun, India

The Kumaun region of India in the northwestern Himalaya experiences complex rainfall patterns, receiving precipitation both during the summer monsoon (June to September) as well as during winter months dominated by westerlies (October to March). In this paper, we present a multi-proxy palaeoclimate record spanning the last ∼1500 years from Tadag Taal, an intermontane lake in Kumaun, India. Our dataset (stable isotope ratios, grain size, trace element ratios) suggests the occurrence of four long-term precipitation cycles of high and low rainfall coinciding with the Dark Ages Cold Period (DACP, ∼475–850 CE), Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA ∼900–1300 CE), Little Ice Age (LIA, ∼1450–1800 CE) and Current Warm Period (CWP, ∼1850 CE to Present). We infer multi-decadal to centennial-scale shifts in the Indian summer monsoon co-varying with changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity superimposed by changes in solar insolation. To correlate our time-series from the northwestern Himalaya with the Core Monsoon Zone and understand coherency in precipitation between the two regions, we applied the Wavelength Coherency Test. Our data suggest wet conditions during the early phase of the LIA (∼1450–1640 CE) and dry conditions in the later phase of the LIA from ∼1640–1800 CE. The wet conditions in the early LIA were perhaps driven by increased winter precipitation. This is in contrast to Central India that witnessed dry conditions during the entire duration of the LIA. This study thus suggests that monsoon strength was different during earlier and later phase of the LIA. Further, the LIA did not witness uniform climate variability through its duration as has been reported in some European and Chinese proxy records.

Holocene climates of the Iberian Peninsula: pollen-based reconstructions of changes in the west–east gradient of temperature and moisture

Abstract. The Iberian Peninsula is characterized by a steep west–east moisture gradient at present, reflecting the dominance of maritime influences along the Atlantic coast and more Mediterranean-type climate further east. Holocene pollen records from the Peninsula suggest that this gradient was less steep during the mid-Holocene, possibly reflecting the impact of orbital changes on circulation and thus regional patterns in climate. Here, we use 7214 pollen samples from 117 sites covering part or all of the last 12 000 years to reconstruct changes in seasonal temperature and in moisture across the Iberian Peninsula quantitatively. We show that there is an increasing trend in winter temperature at a regional scale, consistent with known changes in winter insolation. However, summer temperatures do not show the decreasing trend through the Holocene that would be expected if they were a direct response to insolation forcing. We show that summer temperature is strongly correlated with plant-available moisture (α), as measured by the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to equilibrium evapotranspiration, which declines through the Holocene. The reconstructions also confirm that the west–east gradient in moisture was considerably less steep during the mid-Holocene than today, indicating that atmospheric circulation changes (possibly driven by orbital changes) have been important determinants of the Holocene climate of the region.

Quantification of Asian monsoon variability from 68 ka BP through pollen-based climate reconstruction

The glacial-interglacial variability of precipitation and its driving mechanism in monsoonal regions has long been a subject of debate. However, there are few records of quantitative climate reconstruction dating to the last glacial cycle in areas dominated by the Asian summer monsoon. Here, using a pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction based on three sites in areas exposed to the Asian summer monsoon, we demonstrate that climate has undergone great variability over the past 68 ka. The differences between the last glacial and the Holocene optimum could have been as much as 35%–51% for precipitation, and 5–7 °C for mean annual temperature. Our findings also reveal regional heterogeneity during the abrupt climate events of Heinrich Event 1 and Younger Dryas, that drove drier conditions in southwestern China dominated by the Indian summer monsoon, and a wetter climate in central eastern China. The pattern of variation in reconstructed precipitation, exhibiting strong glacial-interglacial variability, is broadly consistent with the stalagmite δ18O records from Southwest China and South Asia. Our results of reconstruction quantify the sensitivity of the MIS3 precipitation to orbital insolation changes, and highlight the prominent influence of interhemispheric temperature gradients on Asian monsoon variability. Comparison with transient simulations and major climate forcings has shown that the mode of precipitation variability during the transition from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene has been significantly modulated by weak or collapsed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation events in addition to insolation forcing.

Mid and late Holocene climate changes recorded by biomarkers in the sediments of Lake Gouchi and their relationship with the cultural evolution of northern Shaanxi

The climatic and environmental characteristics of the Holocene are much debated, especially the occurrence of a climatic optimum in the mid-Holocene and the interactions between human civilization and the environment. Knowledge of the Holocene climatic evolution of the Mu Us Sandy Land in North China is important for understanding the cultural development of northern Shaanxi. However, few continuous and high-resolution lake sedimentary records are available from the region. We selected Lake Gouchi, a climatically sensitive site in the Mu Us Sandy Land, for a study of sedimentary organic indicators such as n-alkanes, with the objective of reconstructing the regional climatic history since the mid-Holocene. Our results indicate that during 8130–4500 BP, the regional climate was relatively warm and humid, the terrestrial vegetation was dominated by woody plants, and the nutrient level of the lake was relatively stable. Then the climate gradually became arid. However, at the beginning of 2500 BP, there was an 800-year period of warm and humid conditions. Entering the historical period there was an increase in the environmental impacts of human activities. Overall, the climate of the Gouchi area was influenced by the response of the East Asian summer monsoon to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, which were responsible for the mid-Holocene Maximum. Comparison of the climatic record of Lake Gouchi with the sequence of cultural evolution in northern Shaanxi reveals a distinct relationship. Favorable climatic conditions were associated with technological development, an increasing population, and a flourishing civilization; whereas less favorable climatic conditions were associated with cultural stagnation or decline.

Reduced Voltage Sensors Based UPQC Tied Solar PV System Enabling Power Quality Improvement

This work presents an enhanced second-order generalized integrator (ESOGI) based control method for the grid integrated unified power quality conditioner (UPQC) with a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. The objective of this work is to improve the power quality (PQ) indices in the grid by eliminating voltage sensors (grid side) in the overall control. Moreover, presented control method effectively eliminates the DC offset from the input signals and estimates the fundamental element (FE), which is processed to compute the reference signals. The UPQC-PV system comprises two voltage source converters, one connected in a parallel at the point of common coupling for load compensation and the other connected in series via an injecting transformer for voltage compensation. The comparative performance is demonstrated in this work to validate the effectiveness of presented control over state-of-art control algorithms. Moreover, the cost analysis of the presented control is also discussed with the traditional controllers. The UPQC-PV system is simulated in Simulink tool of MATLAB and the performances are analyzed at various dynamic scenarios such as load unbalancing; distorted grid voltages; symmetrical and asymmetrical voltages swell and sag; and change in solar insolation, etc. Experimental results illustrate the superior performance under various operating conditions. The harmonics and magnitudes of load side voltages are restricted as per the IEEE standard 1159. The grid currents and load voltages are well sinusoidal with their total harmonic distortions in the permissible range state in the IEEE standard 519.

Experimental analysis of a solar water heater with a thermosiphone for domestic applications in the south-east of kazakhstan

In this study, a flat solar collector with a thermosyphon was tested in the laboratory of the Institute of Information and Computing Technologies of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, located in Almaty (77 degrees east longitude and 43 degrees north latitude). Experimental data were collected over several sunny and cloudy days. The dynamic response of the system to changes in solar insolation is studied and analyzed. It has been found that such systems can provide enough energy to meet the need for hot water, contrary to the erroneous opinion of local residents. The system operates using six sensors (temperature sensor, water flow sensor, pressure sensor, coolant temperature sensor in the heater tank, coolant temperature sensor in the heat exchanger and outdoor temperature sensor). Six sensors are controlled with a programmable logistics integrated circuit (FPGA) STM32 circuit designed to monitor the entire solar system, and the actuators include power relays. The temperature readings are sent to the ESP 32 module. The ESP 32 module is synchronized with six sensors connected to the STM32 FPGA, with six electrical wires programmed in C++, which after processing the temperature, date and time data received from the real-time clock. After the whole process, all sensor data is sent to the ESP 32 module, where data is sent to the database. During the experiment an electric energy consumption savings of about 1% was achieved due to the control signal in the controller which had a significant impact on the service time of the equipment.

Introducing tree belt designer - A QGIS plugin for designing agroforestry systems in terms of potential insolation

Agroforestry systems support all categories of ecosystem services (ESs). In providing the regulating category of ESs, these systems have become an important strategy used to attenuate drought impacts and biodiversity losses on agricultural landscapes. Within the agroforestry design process aimed at ES provision, one of the agroforestry types used is tree belts (TBs). Unfortunately, due to the inappropriate spatial arrangement of TBs, agricultural landscapes often become too shaded or too sunny. In existing agricultural models of the TB impact on light conditions, only the average values of all TB parameters are considered. Moreover, these models can only be used for whole study plots, or a given plot can be divided into several zones parallel to the TB. Therefore, we developed the QGIS plugin to design TB simulations on a spatially continuous scale for more effective estimation of their impact on potential insolation. The design process is based on the user library containing the tree and shrub species, soil data, parcel-based layout, and digital surface model. In this study, we tested our plugin and its outcomes in terms of predicting changes in potential insolation.

Links between geochemical weathering on the NE Tibetan Plateau and global climate change since the Last Deglacial

The links between chemical weathering on a continental scale and climate have long been a central issue in Earth science. However, the limited knowledge of the interconnections between weathering and climate impedes our understanding of its role in the evolution of the Earth’s climate. The Tibetan Plateau is the world’s highest and largest plateau and the source of water resources for nearly half of the world’s population, it has become a key area for paleoclimate research due to its influence on the atmospheric circulation system and sensitivity to climate change. Herein, we present a major and trace elements-based record of chemical weathering from sediments in the Hurleg Lake, northeastern Tibetan Plateau, over the past 14.1 cal kyr BP. As showed in elements deduced indexes, Hurleg Lake sediments were mainly originated from felsic rocks. Besides, the sediments source remained largely unchanged in the last 14.1 cal kyr BP and the sediments underwent only minimal recycling, and not affected by diagenesis and metasomatism, thus preserving a record of the chemical weathering intensity in the lake catchment. The chemical weathering indexes presented consistent trends and were in good agreement with the variation of δ13Ccarb in authigenic carbonate derived from the same sequence. Chemical weathering intensified during 14.1 ∼ 12.5, 11.1 ∼ 8.7, 7.2 ∼ 4.8 cal kyr BP, and after 3.5 cal kyr BP, when the climate was warm and/or humid, but weakened in cold-dry intervals of 12.5 ∼ 11.1, 8.7 ∼ 7.2, and 4.8 ∼ 3.5 cal kyr BP. The wet intervals correspond to periods of intensification of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) or Westerlies. Furthermore, the climate changes in the study area are also typically linked to high- and low-latitude factors that influence global climate conditions, such as insolation changes, the North Atlantic ice-rafting event, and Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) migrations. The “unusual” cold-dry episode in the 4.8 ∼ 3.5 cal kyr BP possibly dominated by both Westerlies and EASM, the result supports the point that both high and low latitude feedbacks played an important role in modulating Hurleg Lake clod-dry climate during 4.8 to 3.5 cal kyr BP. Our records suggest that the climate evolution on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau response to global climate change sensitively, and the possibility that variabilities in the ITCZ might be instrumental in understanding high to low-latitude climate linkages on a global scale.

Westerly Variations in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau since the Last Interglacial Revealed by the Grain-Size Records of the Ganzi Loess

The westerlies play an important role in driving climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, little is known about the history of the westerlies in the TP owing to limited observations and a lack of robust reconstructions. The widely distributed eolian loess in the eastern TP is one of the ideal materials to retrieve the intensity history for the westerlies. A detailed grain-size and endmember model analysis (EMMA) on the Ganzi loess sequence located in the eastern TP revealed that the EMMA decomposed the loess grain-size components into four endmembers: EM1 (modal size 1.42 μm) is related to pedogenesis, and EM2 (modal size 7.10 μm) is transported by the westerlies. Silt modes (EM3 and EM4) are transported by the TP winter monsoon or near-surface airflows. The mass accumulation rate (MAR) of EM2 indicated the westerly variations. Combined with the MAR, we reconstructed the history of westerly intensity since the last interglacial period from the Ganzi loess sequence. We found that the intensity of the westerlies showed typical glacial/interglacial variations since the last interglacial period in the eastern TP. The westerly intensity was strong with large fluctuations during the glacial period, whereas it was weak and stable during the Holocene and the last interglacial. The temperature gradient between high and low latitudes caused by changes in insolation and ice volume in the northern hemisphere were the dominant forcing mechanisms for the westerly intensity variations.

Orbital‐Insolation Controlled Porites Coral δ13C Seasonality Variations Since the Mid‐Holocene in the Northern South China Sea

AbstractCoral skeleton δ13C is a routinely measured indicator in modern insolation change research, but the knowledge of environmental and climatic signals recorded in its seasonality during geological time is sparse. In this study, we present eight Porites coral δ13C records from the mid‐late Holocene to the present from the northern South China Sea (NSCS). Compared with the main control factors for modern δ13C changes, coral δ13C seasonality in the NSCS since the mid‐Holocene shows a long‐term decreasing trend, which is consistent with the change trend as orbital‐induced (precession) insolation seasonal amplitude. By excluding other influencing factors, we speculate that the stronger coral δ13C seasonality (18.8%) over the mid‐Holocene than modern period is attributable to the metabolic effect, which predicts the stronger coral δ13C seasonality under stronger insolation seasonality. Our study has implications for coral δ13C seasonality as a potential indicator to record past insolation information under different climatic backgrounds.

Special issue on “Optimal design and operation of energy systems”

Special issue on “Optimal design and operation of energy systems”

Mid-Holocene expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool documented in coral Sr/Ca records from Kenya

Proxy reconstructions suggest that mid-Holocene East African temperatures were warmer than today between 8 and 5 ka BP, but climate models cannot replicate this warming. Precessional forcing caused a shift of maximum insolation from boreal spring to fall in the mid-Holocene, which may have favored intense warming at the start of the warm season. Here, we use three Porites corals from Kenya that represent time windows from 6.55 to 5.87 ka BP to reconstruct past sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality from coral Sr/Ca ratios in the western Indian Ocean during the mid-Holocene. Although the Indian monsoon was reportedly stronger in the mid-Holocene, which should have amplified the seasonal cycle of SST in the western Indian Ocean, the corals suggest reduced seasonality (mean 3.2 °C) compared to the modern record (mean 4.3 °C). Warming in austral spring is followed by a prolonged period of warm SSTs, suggesting that an upper limit of tropical SSTs under mid-Holocene conditions was reached at the start of the warm season, and SSTs then remained stable. Similar changes are seen at the Seychelles. Bootstrap estimates suggest a reduction in SST seasonality of 1.3 ± 0.22 °C at Kenya and 1.7 ± 0.32 °C at the Seychelles. SST seasonality at Kenya corresponds to present-day SST seasonality at 55° E–60° E, while SST seasonality at the Seychelles corresponds to present day SST seasonality at ~ 65° E. This implies a significant westward expansion of the Indian Ocean warm pool. Furthermore, the coral data suggests that SST seasonality deviates from seasonal changes in orbital insolation due to ocean–atmosphere interactions.