Ice Volume Changes Research Articles

Constraints on global mean sea level during Pliocene warmth.

Reconstructing the evolution of sea level during past warmer epochs such as the Pliocene provides insight into the response of sea level and ice sheets to prolonged warming1. Although estimates of the global mean sea level (GMSL) during this time do exist, they vary by several tens of metres2-4, hindering the assessment of past and future ice-sheet stability. Here we show that during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was on average two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period5, the GMSL was about 16.2 metres higher than todayowingto global ice-volume changes, and around 17.4 metres when thermal expansion of the oceans is included. During the even warmer Pliocene Climatic Optimum (about four degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels)6, our results show that the GMSL was 23.5 metres above the present level,with an additional 1.6 metres from thermal expansion. We provide six GMSL data points, ranging from 4.39 to 3.27 million years ago, that are based on phreaticovergrowths on speleothems from the western Mediterranean (Mallorca, Spain). This record is unique owing to its clear relationship to sea level, its reliable U-Pb ages and its long timespan, which allows us to quantify uncertainties on potential uplift. Our data indicate that ice sheets are very sensitive to warming and provide important calibration targets for future ice-sheet models7.

Reconstructions of Antarctic topography since the Eocene–Oligocene boundary

Accurate models of past Antarctic ice sheet behaviour require realistic reconstructions of the evolution of bedrock topography. However, other than a preliminary attempt to reconstruct Antarctic topography at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary, the long-term evolution of Antarctica's subglacial topography throughout its glacial history has not previously been quantified. Here, we derive new reconstructions of Antarctic topography for four key time slices in Antarctica's climate and glacial history: the Eocene–Oligocene boundary (ca. 34 Ma), the Oligocene–Miocene boundary (ca. 23 Ma), the mid-Miocene climate transition (ca. 14 Ma), and the mid-Pliocene warm period (ca. 3.5 Ma). To reconstruct past topography, we consider a series of processes including ice sheet loading, volcanism, thermal subsidence, horizontal plate motion, erosion, sedimentation and flexural isostatic adjustment, and validate our models where possible using onshore and offshore geological constraints. Our reconstructions show that the land area of Antarctica situated above sea level was ~25% larger at the Eocene–Oligocene boundary than at the present-day. Offshore sediment records and terrestrial constraints indicate that the incision of deep subglacial topographic troughs around the margin of East Antarctica occurred predominantly in the Oligocene and early Miocene, whereas in West Antarctica erosion and sedimentation rates accelerated after the mid-Miocene. Changes to the topography after the mid-Pliocene were comparatively minor. Our new palaeotopography reconstructions provide a critical boundary condition for models seeking to understand past behaviour of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and have implications for estimating changes in global ice volume, temperature, and sea level across major Cenozoic climate transitions.

Cyclic anoxia and organic rich carbonate sediments within a drowned carbonate platform linked to Antarctic ice volume changes: Late Oligocene-early Miocene Maldives

This paper reports on the newly discovered occurrence of thick sequences (∼100 m) of Late Oligocene and Early Miocene (∼24.9 to ∼20 Ma) interbedded organic-rich sediments (sapropels) and pelagic (organic poor) carbonates at Sites U1466 and U1468 drilled in the Maldives archipelago during the International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 359. This occurrence is unusual in that this sequence is located > 1000 m above the surrounding ocean floor within an inter-atoll basin and not linked to any known global oceanic events. Total organic content reaches as high as 35% in the darker layers, while the interbedded carbonates have concentrations of less than 0.1%. Trace elements characteristic of anoxic waters, such as Mo, V, Cr, U, and Pb, correlate positively with concentrations of organic carbon. Nitrogen isotopic data show no evidence that the intervals of high total organic carbon are related to enhanced productivity driven by upwelling. Instead, high organic carbon is associated with intervals of anoxia. We propose that sea-level fluctuations linked to changes in Antarctic ice volume restricted exchange with the open ocean causing bottom waters of the inter-atoll basin to become anoxic periodically. The architecture of the platform at the end of the Oligocene, combined with the global sea-level highstand, set the stage for orbitally-driven sea-level changes producing cyclic deposition of sapropels. The proposed mechanism may serve as an analogue for other occurrences of organic carbon-rich sediments within carbonate platform settings.

A sea-level plateau preceding the Marine Isotope Stage 2 minima revealed by Australian sediments

Further understanding of past climate requires a robust estimate of global ice volume fluctuations that in turn rely on accurate global sea-level reconstructions. An advantage of Marine Isotope Stage 2 (MIS 2) is the availability of suitable material for radiocarbon dating to allow comparison of sea-level data with other paleoclimatic proxies. However, the number and accuracy of sea-level records during MIS 2 is currently lacking. Here we present the history of MIS 2 eustatic sea-level change as recorded in the Bonaparte Gulf, northwestern Australia by reconstructing relative sea level and then modeling glacial isostatic adjustment. The isostatically-corrected global sea-level history indicates that sea-level plateaued from 25.9 to 20.4 cal kyr BP (modeled median probability) prior reaching its minimum (19.7 to 19.1 cal kyr BP). Following the plateau, we detect a 10-m global sea-level fall over ~1,000 years and a short duration of the Last Glacial Maximum (global sea-level minimum; 19.7 to 19.1 cal kyr BP). These large changes in ice volume over such a short time indicates that the continental ice sheets never reached their isostatic equilibrium during the Last Glacial Maximum.

Changes in the Asian monsoon climate during the late last interglacial recorded in oxygen isotopes of a stalagmite from the Yongxing Cave, central China

The last interglacial contains information about how climate behaves during a warm period comparable to the current interval. However, there is no consensus on the key signatures and force of the last interglacial climate changes at present. Here we present a high-resolution stalagmite oxygen isotope record from central China, which spans from 123.3 to 116.8 ka. The stalagmite δ18O time-series bears a resemblance to changes in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation before the demise of the last interglacial, like the condition during the Holocene. Superimposed on the long-term δ18O record is a pronounced shift to more positive values at around 121.6 ka, indicating a switch of the Asian monsoon mean state into a weaker condition. This monsoon shift correlates with a decrease in the mean state of the South American Summer Monsoon, and a well-known abrupt mid-Eemian cooling event at high latitudes. These correlations indicate broad-scale features of the climate shift over the warm last interglacial. Another positive δ18O shift of up to 3.5‰ occurred at around 120 ka, representing the demise of the last interglacial Asian monsoon. By comparing the stalagmite δ18O records against changes in ice volume and summer insolation during the last interglacial and recent Holocene, respectively, we conclude that the decreasing Northern Hemisphere summer insolation dominated the rapid demise of the last interglacial in the Asian monsoon region.

Atmospheric circulation and ice volume changes for the small and medium glaciers of New Zealand's Southern Alps mountain range 1977–2018

New Zealand has a long, continuous record of annual measurements of the altitude of end‐of‐summer‐snowline for a set of 50 Southern Alps “index glaciers.” The record begins for the 1976–1977 glacier year and continues to the present. These are equivalent to equilibrium line altitude (ELA) data. An earlier paper used these to estimate annual mass balance and ice volume for all glaciers up to 2008 and showed a steady decline in ice volume, but with considerable inter‐annual fluctuations. These results are updated to 2018 for the more than 3,000 small and medium‐size glaciers of the Southern Alps. The inclusion of the latter year enabled assessment of the impacts on ice volume of these glaciers from an unprecedented coupled ocean‐atmosphere heatwave in the New Zealand region during the austral summer (DJF) 2017/18. The main purpose of this paper is to examine how these changes in ice volume relate to variability and trends in atmospheric circulation and weather types over four decades. Years with ice volume gains are characterized by below average temperature anomalies, enhanced southwest flow and a tendency for trough weather types over New Zealand. Years with ice volume losses have above average temperature, reduced southwest flow, and increased blocking weather types, with more anticyclones east of New Zealand. Largest annual ice volume loss of 3.6 ± 0.6 km3 (−13.5%) occurred during the 2017/18 summer heatwave for which the main atmospheric anomalies are discussed. Total ice volume of the Southern Alps for the small and medium glaciers has decreased from 26.6 km3 in 1977 to 17.9 km3 in 2018 (a loss of 8.6 km3 or 33%) at a rate of 0.21 km3 a−1. From 1977 to 1997 there was an annual ice gain of +0.30 km3 a−1 but was followed by an accelerating ice loss of −0.67 km3 a−1 for the period 1998–2018. There are significant correlations between ice volume changes and the Trenberth regional circulation indices Z1, Z3 and MZ3. Strongest relationships are with the Southern Annular Mode: a trend towards more positive values coincides with a general loss of ice volume. The Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation relate to ice volume changes on decadal to inter‐annual time scales. Positive phases of the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation and El Niño years favour ice volume growth as they are cooler, with more precipitation, troughs and southwest flow over New Zealand. Negative phases of the Inter‐decadal Pacific Oscillation and La Niña years favour ice volume loss as they are warmer with less precipitation, more anticyclones and east or northeast flow. The dominant driver for 2017/18 was the positive Southern Annular Mode, and a smaller contribution from La Niña on a background of regional warming. Climate scenarios suggest that such conditions will be rather frequent by the 2,080–2,100 decades, with consequent large reductions in ice volume.

100‐kyr Paced Climate Change in the Pliocene Warm Period, Southwest Pacific

AbstractThe mid to late Pliocene (~4.2–2.8 Ma.) represents an experiment in climate sensitivity to orbital pacing in which nearly all continental ice was confined to the Southern Hemisphere. Most studies have emphasized the dominant role of obliquity in determining changes in ice volume and temperature at this time, although most records come from the Northern Hemisphere, instead of the hemisphere where the bulk of ice resided. We present the first orbitally‐resolved, mid to late Pliocene Southern Hemisphere paired records of surface and subsurface variability from two deep ocean archives from the Southwest Pacific Ocean (Sites 594 and 1125). These records indicate dominance of low frequencies centered at ~100 kyr for this time period. Because these signatures extend coherently and synchronously from middepth water properties (δ13C, δ18O of benthic foraminifera), which have their chemistry set in the subantarctic belt, to the surface (alkenone‐derived surface temperature estimates, color reflectance, and magnetic susceptibility), we infer that the fingerprint of the ~100‐kyr cycles must have extended over a large region of the Southern Hemisphere. We propose that nonlinearities in climate response to precessional forcing—most likely through ice sheet and/or carbon cycle behavior—generated the observed low frequency. A review of published mid to late Pliocene time series suggests that the ~100‐kyr pacing may be a widespread phenomenon and that major approximately 100‐kyr excursions in Pliocene climate were an important overlay to the underlying 41‐kyr glacial‐interglacial rhythm. These results caution against uncritical use of existing Pliocene isotopic templates to construct high‐resolution age models.

Quantitative organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst stratigraphy across the Eocene-Oligocene Transition in the Gulf of Mexico: A record of climate- and sea level change during the onset of Antarctic glaciation

The Eocene – Oligocene Transition (EOT, 34–33.5 Ma) marks a major transition in Cenozoic climate evolution through the relatively rapid establishment of a continental-scale ice sheet on Antarctica. The EOT is characterized by two 200 kyr spaced shifts (termed EOT-1 and Oi-1) in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of benthic foraminifera, representing both changes in continental ice-volume and temperature. Estimates of the timing and magnitude of these changes during this critical phase in Earth’s climatic evolution are controversial. Here we present marine palynological assemblage data, in particular of organic-walled dinoflagellate cysts (dinocysts), across a classic upper Eocene to lower Oligocene neritic succession cored in Alabama, USA; the Saint Stephens Quarry (SSQ) borehole. These palynological data combined with lithological information allow the identification of three sequence boundaries across the EOT. Critically, we identify a sequence boundary at the level corresponding to the EOT-1. Integrated sea level and paleotemperature records show that EOT-1 primarily represents cooling with some minor and transient continental ice sheet expansion. Furthermore, we identify a significant hiatus, likely caused by major sea level fall at the base of Magnetochron C13n that corresponds to the Oi-1 shift. This clarifies the δ18O records from SSQ that essentially lack the expected pronounced shift to positive δ18O values so characteristic for Oi-1. Furthermore, we document originations and extinctions of potentially temperature-sensitive dinocysts associated with the EOT-1. In contrast, the Oi-1 does not stand out as period of substantial dinoflagellate turnover. The combined results illustrate that major cooling, limited and transient ice growth and major biotic change were occurring before the full-size expansion of the Antarctic cryosphere. © 2018 The Authors.

Rock glaciers as a water resource in a changing climate in the semiarid Chilean Andes

Rock glaciers likely play an important hydrological role in the semiarid Andes (SA; 27°–35°S). They supplement streamflow when water is needed most, especially during dry years in the late summer months. Despite their assumed importance, there are no publications that quantify their hydrological contribution to streamflow in the SA of Chile, based on measurements of rock glacier ice loss or discharge. In this study, we assess the available information on the hydrological importance of rock glaciers in the SA and provide suggestions on how future research can address knowledge gaps. We conclude that there is insufficient data available to quantify the hydrological contribution of rock glaciers in the SA. Measurements of glacier discharge are limited to unpublished data sets from which only very limited conclusions can be drawn. There are no ice volume change measurements or proxies available for individual rock glaciers. Approximations of rock glacier ice volume, calculated from areal extent, thickness, and percentage of ice content are available, and these data provide an initial baseline for calculating ice volume change in the future. While these baseline data are very valuable, they represent rough estimates due to a scarcity of studies, especially on glacier thickness and percentage of ice content. With increased temperatures and a decrease in precipitation expected in the future, rock glaciers could become an increasingly critical water resource in this region, especially in the Elqui and Juncal catchments. Improved estimates of rock glacier discharge, water content, processes, and hydrology are required to model their future evolution and evaluate their contribution to water resources.

Diverse manifestations of the mid-Pleistocene climate transition

The mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) is widely recognized as a shift in paleoclimatic periodicity from 41- to 100-kyr cycles, which largely reflects integrated changes in global ice volume, sea level, and ocean temperature from the marine realm. However, much less is known about monsoon-induced terrestrial vegetation change across the MPT. Here, on the basis of a 1.7-million-year δ13C record of loess carbonates from the Chinese Loess Plateau, we document a unique MPT reflecting terrestrial vegetation changes from a dominant 23-kyr periodicity before 1.2 Ma to combined 100, 41, and 23-kyr cycles after 0.7 Ma, very different from the conventional MPT characteristics. Model simulations further reveal that the MPT transition likely reflects decreased sensitivity of monsoonal hydroclimate to insolation forcing as the Northern Hemisphere became increasingly glaciated through the MPT. Our proxy-model comparison suggests varied responses of temperature and precipitation to astronomical forcing under different ice/CO2 boundary conditions, which greatly improves our understanding of monsoon variability and dynamics from the natural past to the anthropogenic future.

The 405 kyr and 2.4 Myr eccentricity components in Cenozoic carbon isotope records

Abstract. Cenozoic stable carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) isotope ratios of deep-sea foraminiferal calcite co-vary with the 405 kyr eccentricity cycle, suggesting a link between orbital forcing, the climate system, and the carbon cycle. Variations in δ18O are partly forced by ice-volume changes that have mostly occurred since the Oligocene. The cyclic δ13C–δ18O co-variation is found in both ice-free and glaciated climate states, however. Consequently, there should be a mechanism that forces the δ13C cycles independently of ice dynamics. In search of this mechanism, we simulate the response of several key components of the carbon cycle to orbital forcing in the Long-term Ocean-atmosphere-Sediment CArbon cycle Reservoir model (LOSCAR). We force the model by changing the burial of organic carbon in the ocean with various astronomical solutions and noise and study the response of the main carbon cycle tracers. Consistent with previous work, the simulations reveal that low-frequency oscillations in the forcing are preferentially amplified relative to higher frequencies. However, while oceanic δ13C mainly varies with a 405 kyr period in the model, the dynamics of dissolved inorganic carbon in the oceans and of atmospheric CO2 are dominated by the 2.4 Myr cycle of eccentricity. This implies that the total ocean and atmosphere carbon inventory is strongly influenced by carbon cycle variability that exceeds the timescale of the 405 kyr period (such as silicate weathering). To test the applicability of the model results, we assemble a long (∼22 Myr) δ13C and δ18O composite record spanning the Eocene to Miocene (34–12 Ma) and perform spectral analysis to assess the presence of the 2.4 Myr cycle. We find that, while the 2.4 Myr cycle appears to be overshadowed by long-term changes in the composite record, it is present as an amplitude modulator of the 405 and 100 kyr eccentricity cycles.

A statistical method for the evaluation of long term trends in underwater noise measurements.

Deep ocean ambient sound levels have been the subject of recent studies, with particular interest in the identification of long term trends. This paper describes a statistical method for performing long term trend analysis and uncertainty evaluation of the estimated trends. Uncertainties are needed if the quality of the estimates are to be assessed and if the results from different studies or different methods are to be compared. The measured data span 14 years, from 2003 to 2017, and originate from the Southern Ocean close to Cape Leeuwin, Australia. The method uses a flexible discrete model incorporating terms that capture seasonal variations in the data and a moving-average statistical model to describe the serial correlation of residual deviations, with uncertainties validated using bootstrap resampling. The method is applied to time series representing monthly and daily aggregated statistical levels for five frequency bands to obtain estimates for the change in sound pressure level over the examined period with associated uncertainties. The results show a statistically significant reduction in sound pressure levels over the examined period at that location. Possible explanations for these changes are postulated, including the effects of shipping, wind speed, sea surface temperature, and changes in Antarctic ice volume.

The GRISLI ice sheet model (version 2.0): calibration and validation for multi-millennial changes of the Antarctic ice sheet

Abstract. In this paper, we present the GRISLI (Grenoble ice sheet and land ice) model in its newest revision (version 2.0). Whilst GRISLI is applicable to any given ice sheet, we focus here on the Antarctic ice sheet because it highlights the importance of grounding line dynamics. Important improvements have been implemented in the model since its original version (Ritz et al., 2001). Notably, GRISLI now includes a basal hydrology model and an explicit flux computation at the grounding line based on the analytical formulations of Schoof (2007) or Tsai et al. (2015). We perform a full calibration of the model based on an ensemble of 300 simulations sampling mechanical parameter space using a Latin hypercube method. Performance of individual members is assessed relative to the deviation from present-day observed Antarctic ice thickness. To assess the ability of the model to simulate grounding line migration, we also present glacial–interglacial ice sheet changes throughout the last 400 kyr using the best ensemble members taking advantage of the capacity of the model to perform multi-millennial long-term integrations. To achieve this goal, we construct a simple climatic perturbation of present-day climate forcing fields based on two climate proxies: atmospheric and oceanic. The model is able to reproduce expected grounding line advances during glacial periods and subsequent retreats during terminations with reasonable glacial–interglacial ice volume changes.

An optimized method to calculate the geodetic mass balance of mountain glaciers

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the effects of climate on glaciers requires precise estimates of ice volume change over several decades. This is achieved by the geodetic mass balance computed by two means: (1) the digital elevation model (DEM) comparison (SeqDEM) allows measurements over the entire glacier, however the low contrast over glacierized areas is an issue for the DEM generation through the photogrammetric techniques and (2) the profiling method (SePM) is a faster alternative but fails to capture the spatial variability of elevation changes. We present a new framework (SSD) that relies upon the spatial variability of the elevation change to densify a sampling network to optimize the surface-elevation change quantification. Our method was tested in two small glaciers over different periods. We conclude that the SePM overestimates the elevation change by ~20% with a mean difference of ~1.00 m (root mean square error (RMSE) = ~3.00 m) compared with results from the SeqDEM method. A variogram analysis of the elevation changes showed a mean difference of <0.10 m (RMSE = ~2.40 m) with SSD approach. A final assessment on the largest glacier in the French Alps confirms the high potential of our method to compute the geodetic mass balance, without going through the generation of a full-density DEM, but with a similar accuracy than the SeqDEM approach.

The effect of salinity on the biogeochemistry of the coccolithophores with implications for coccolith-based isotopic proxies

Abstract. Reconstruction of sea surface temperatures from the oxygen isotope composition (δ18O) of calcite biominerals synthesised in the mesopelagic zone of the oceans requires knowledge of the δ18O of seawater and constraints on the magnitude of biological 18O∕16O fractionation (the so-called vital effect). In the palaeoceanography community, seawater δ18O and salinity are unduly treated as a common parameter owing to their strong covariation both geographically and in the geological register. If the former parameter has arguably no notable influence on the biogeochemistry of marine calcifiers, salinity potentially does. However, how salinity per se and the effect of osmotic adjustment can modulate the biogeochemistry, and in turn, the expression of the vital effect in calcite biomineral such as the coccoliths remains undocumented. In this culture-based study of coccolithophores (Haptophyta) belonging to the Noelaerhabdaceae family, we kept temperature and seawater δ18O constant, and measured basic physiological parameters (growth rate and cell size), and the isotope composition (18O∕16O and 13C∕12C) of coccoliths grown under a range of salinity, between 29 and 39. Ultimately, the overarching aim of this biogeochemical study is to refine the accuracy of palaeotemperature estimates using fossil coccoliths. We found that despite significant physiological changes in the coccolithophores, varying salinity does not modulate biological fractionation of oxygen isotopes. This observation contrasts with previous in vitro manipulations of temperature and carbonate chemistry that led to substantial changes in the expression of the vital effect. As such, salinity does not affect temperature estimation from coccolith-bearing pelagic sequences deposited during periods of change in ice volume, especially at the highest latitudes, or in coastal regions. By contrast, the carbon isotope composition of the coccoliths is influenced by a growth rate mediated control of salinity with implications for deriving productivity indices from pelagic carbonate.

Arctic‐Wide Sea Ice Thickness Estimates From Combining Satellite Remote Sensing Data and a Dynamic Ice‐Ocean Model with Data Assimilation During the CryoSat‐2 Period

AbstractExploiting the complementary character of CryoSat‐2 and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite sea ice thickness products, daily Arctic sea ice thickness estimates from October 2010 to December 2016 are generated by an Arctic regional ice‐ocean model with satellite thickness assimilated. The assimilation is performed by a Local Error Subspace Transform Kalman filter coded in the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework. The new estimates can be generally thought of as combined model and satellite thickness (CMST). It combines the skill of satellite thickness assimilation in the freezing season with the model skill in the melting season, when neither CryoSat‐2 nor Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea ice thickness is available. Comparisons with in situ observations from the Beaufort Gyre Exploration Project, Ice Mass Balance Buoys, and the NASA Operation IceBridge demonstrate that CMST reproduces most of the observed temporal and spatial variations. Results also show that CMST compares favorably to the Pan‐Arctic Ice‐Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System product and even appears to correct known thickness biases in the Pan‐Arctic Ice‐Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System. Due to imperfect parameterizations in the sea ice model and satellite thickness retrievals, CMST does not reproduce the heavily deformed and ridged sea ice along the northern coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland. With the new Arctic sea ice thickness estimates sea ice volume changes in recent years can be further assessed.

Drivers of Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Change in CMIP5 Models

AbstractAntarctic sea ice trends have to date been linked to surface winds, through sea ice motion and atmospheric thermal advection. This paper analyzes sea ice volume in 10 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model configurations under pre‐industrial and historical climate forcings, to compare the relative importance of ice motion and thermodynamic processes. We find that the models' responses to historical forcings is dependent on their sea ice motion formulation; models with low‐magnitude sea ice motion tend to have historical trends that are dominated by thermodynamic processes, while sea ice models with higher‐magnitude motion have more spatially variable relative contributions from dynamic and thermodynamic processes. Trends at the sea ice edge during the season of sea ice advance are generally dominated by dynamic processes, whereas during retreat thermodynamic trends dominate. The models show more disagreement in the sea ice interior. This analysis highlights the different estimates and patterns of sea ice volume among global climate models and offers insight into the drivers of sea ice volume change as well as the subsequent implications for simulated atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean interactions.

A below-the-present late Holocene relative sea level and the glacial isostatic adjustment during the Holocene in the Malay Peninsula

This study has reconstructed the Holocene relative sea-level history in the relatively tectonically stable Malay Peninsula with two specific objectives: quantifying the sea-level indicative meanings of mangrove sediments and producing new high-quality sea-level index points. In this study, a wetland on the east coast of the Peninsula was extensively surveyed; the elevational relationship between habitat zones and their pollen and diatom assemblages was established; and a number of indicative meanings were precisely quantified for this wetland. This quantified relationship is extrapolated to other coastal sites of the Peninsula for re-calibration of previously published mangrove-based sea-level data. The reconstructed sea-level history from the new and re-calibrated data demonstrates a period of rapid sea-level rise at a rate of 15.8 ± 3.9 mm/a between 10,500 cal a BP at −35.0 ± 4.3 m and 9000 cal a BP at −14.2 ± 1.6 m. The rate of rising sea level was gradually reduced to zero from 9000 to 5000 cal a BP, and by the end of this period the relative sea level reached a highstand of c. 3.3 ± 0.2 m. Over the past 5000 years relative sea level fell to its lowest point at −0.6 ± 0.1 m by 800 cal a BP. This far-field sea-level history has been driven by the global ice-volume change and glacial isostatic adjustment, and it matches well with the modelled ice-volume equivalent sea level.

Arctic sea ice thickness, volume, and multiyear ice coverage: losses and coupled variability (1958–2018)

Large-scale changes in Arctic sea ice thickness, volume and multiyear sea ice (MYI) coverage with available measurements from submarine sonars, satellite altimeters (ICESat and CryoSat-2), and satellite scatterometers are summarized. The submarine record spans the period between 1958 and 2000, the satellite altimeter records between 2003 and 2018, and the scatterometer records between 1999 and 2017. Regional changes in ice thickness (since 1958) and within the data release area of the Arctic Ocean, previously reported by Kwok and Rothrock (2009 Geophys. Res. Lett. 36 L15501), have been updated to include the 8 years of CryoSat-2 (CS-2) retrievals. Between the pre-1990 submarine period (1958–1976) and the CS-2 period (2011–2018) the average thickness near the end of the melt season, in six regions, decreased by 2.0 m or some 66% over six decades. Within the data release area (∼38% of the Arctic Ocean) of submarine ice draft, the thinning of ∼1.75 m in winter since 1980 (maximum thickness of 3.64 m in the regression analysis) has not changed significantly; the mean thickness over the CS-2 period is ∼2 m. The 15 year satellite record depicts losses in sea ice volume at 2870 km3/decade and 5130 km3/decade in winter (February–March) and fall (October–November), respectively: more moderate trends compared to the sharp decreases over the ICESat period, where the losses were weighted by record-setting melt in 2007. Over the scatterometer record (1999–2017), the Arctic has lost more than 2 × 106 km2 of MYI—a decrease of more than 50%; MYI now covers less than one-third of the Arctic Ocean. Independent MYI coverage and volume records co-vary in time, the MYI area anomalies explain ∼85% of the variance in the anomalies in Arctic sea ice volume. If losses of MYI continue, Arctic thickness/volume will be controlled by seasonal ice, suggesting that the thickness/volume trends will be more moderate (as seen here) but more sensitive to climate forcing.

LCice 1.0 – a generalized Ice Sheet System Model coupler for LOVECLIM version 1.3: description, sensitivities, and validation with the Glacial Systems Model (GSM version D2017.aug17)

Abstract. We have coupled an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM) to the Glacial Systems Model (GSM) using the LCice 1.0 coupler. The coupling scheme is flexible enough to enable asynchronous coupling between any glacial cycle ice sheet model and (with some code work) any Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). This coupling includes a number of interactions between ice sheets and climate that are often neglected: dynamic meltwater runoff routing, novel downscaling for precipitation that corrects orographic forcing to the higher resolution ice sheet grid (“advective precipitation”), dynamic vertical temperature gradient, and ocean temperatures for sub-shelf melt. The sensitivity of the coupled model with respect to the selected parameterizations and coupling schemes is investigated. Each new coupling feature is shown to have a significant impact on ice sheet evolution. An ensemble of runs is used to explore the behaviour of the coupled model over a set of 2000 parameter vectors using present-day (PD) initial and boundary conditions. The ensemble of coupled model runs is compared against PD reanalysis data for atmosphere (2 m temperature, precipitation, jet stream, and Rossby number of jet), ocean (sea ice and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation – AMOC), and Northern Hemisphere ice sheet thickness and extent. The parameter vectors are then narrowed by rejecting model runs (1700 CE to present) with regional land ice volume changes beyond an acceptance range. The selected subset forms the basis for ongoing work to explore the spatial–temporal phase space of the last two glacial cycles.