Glacier Mass Balance Changes Research Articles

Modeling past and future variation of glaciers in the Dongkemadi Ice Field on central Tibetan Plateau from 1989 to 2050

ABSTRACT Glacier mass balance change is among the best indicators of glacier response to climate change. Due to its inaccessibility and limited observation, little is known about the change to the Dongkemadi Ice Field (DIF) in the Tanggula Mountains located in the source region of the Yangtze River in central Tibetan Plateau. Here, an enhanced temperature index–based glacier model considering glacier area change was applied to study the temporal–spatial variation in mass balance on the DIF from 1989 to 2012 and to assess its response to climate change. The model was forced by reconstructed temperature and precipitation from adjacent national meteorological stations and validated by comparing with field observations from the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier (XDG). Results show that the simulated mass balance is in good agreement with the observations (R 2 = 0.75, p < .001), and the model can reasonably reproduce well the glacier mass change. Then the model was applied to twenty individual glaciers in DIF and forced by the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM3) from 2013 to 2050 to project their further variation. In the future, the mass balance of glaciers in DIF shows a continuously negative trend with a linear rate of −0.16 m water equivalent (w.e.) a−1 in representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and −0.35 m w.e. a−1 in RCP 8.5. Most of the glaciers’ equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) will reach or exceed their maximum elevation after the 2030s. By coupling a modified volume–area scaling method with the mass balance model, results showed that areas of the individual glaciers in DIF will lose about 12.10 to 30.66 percent under RCP4.5 and 14.06 to 38.76 percent under RCP8.5, and the volume of the DIF will lose about 1.18 km3 in RCP4.5 and 1.44 km3 in RCP8.5 by the end of 2050. In addition, the terminuses of glaciers experienced the largest percentage losses and most of the glaciers’ front position will reach ~5,520 m a.s.l. in RCP 4.5 and 5,570 m a.s.l. in RCP 8.5, the latter of which is nearly close to the DIF average ELA in 1989. The clearly increasing summer air temperature may be the main reason for glacier shrinkage in the DIF. If the warming trend continues, glaciers in DIF may further retreat with continued glacial melt or even mostly disappear by the end of the century.

Glacier mass balance over the central Nyainqentanglha Range during recent decades derived from remote-sensing data

ABSTRACTTo obtain information on changes in glacier mass balance in the central Nyainqentanglha Range, a comprehensive study was carried out based on digital-elevation models derived from the 1968 topographic maps, the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission DEM (2000) and TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X (2013). Glacier area changes between 1968 and 2016 were derived from topographic maps and Landsat OLI images. This showed the area contained 715 glaciers, with an area of 1713.42 ± 51.82 km2, in 2016. Ice cover has been shrinking by 0.68 ± 0.05% a−1 since 1968. The glacier area covered by debris accounted for 11.9% of the total and decreased in the SE–NW directions. Using digital elevation model differencing and differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry, a significant mass loss of 0.46 ± 0.10 m w.e. a−1 has been recorded since 1968; mass losses accelerated from 0.42 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1 to 0.60 ± 0.20 m w.e. a−1 between 1968–2000 and 2000–2013, with thinning noticeably greater on the debris-covered ice than the clean ice. Surface-elevation changes can be influenced by ice cliffs, as well as debris cover and land- or lake-terminating glaciers. Changes showed spatial and temporal heterogeneity and a substantial correlation with climate warming and decreased precipitation.

Future Climate Change and Its Impact on Runoff Generation from the Debris-Covered Inylchek Glaciers, Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan

The heavily debris-covered Inylchek glaciers in the central Tian Shan are the largest glacier system in the Tarim catchment. It is assumed that almost 50% of the discharge of Tarim River are provided by glaciers. For this reason, climatic changes, and thus changes in glacier mass balance and glacier discharge are of high impact for the whole region. In this study, a conceptual hydrological model able to incorporate discharge from debris-covered glacier areas is presented. To simulate glacier melt and subsequent runoff in the past (1970/1971–1999/2000) and future (2070/2071–2099/2100), meteorological input data were generated based on ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 global climate model projections. The hydrological model HBV-LMU was calibrated by an automatic calibration algorithm using runoff and snow cover information as objective functions. Manual fine-tuning was performed to avoid unrealistic results for glacier mass balance. The simulations show that annual runoff sums will increase significantly under future climate conditions. A sensitivity analysis revealed that total runoff does not decrease until the glacier area is reduced by 43%. Ice melt is the major runoff source in the recent past, and its contribution will even increase in the coming decades. Seasonal changes reveal a trend towards enhanced melt in spring, but a change from a glacial-nival to a nival-pluvial runoff regime will not be reached until the end of this century.

Detecting Short-Term Surface Melt on an Arctic Glacier Using UAV Surveys

Current understanding of glacier mass balance changes under changing climate is limited by scarcity of in situ measurements in both time and space, as well as resolution of remote sensing products. Recent innovations in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as structure-from-motion photogrammetry (SfM), have led to increased use of digital imagery to derive topographic data in great detail in many fields, including glaciology. This study tested the capability of UAV surveys to detect surface changes over glacier ice during a three-day period in July 2016. Three UAV imaging missions were conducted during this time over 0.185 km 2 of the ablation area of Fountain Glacier, NU. These were processed with the SfM algorithms in Agisoft Photoscan Professional and overall accuracies of the resulting point clouds ranged from 0.030 to 0.043 m. The high accuracy of point clouds achieved here is primarily a result of a small ground sampling distance (0.018 m), and is also influenced by GPS precision. Glacier surface change was measured through differencing of point clouds and change was compared to ablation stake measurements. Surface change measured with the UAV-SfM method agreed with the coincident ablation stake measurements in most instances, with RMSE values of 0.033, 0.028, and 0.042 m for one-, two-, and three-day periods, respectively. Total specific melt over the study area measured with the UAV was 0.170 m water equivalent (w.e.), while interpolation of ablation measurements resulted in 0.144 m w.e. Using UAVs to measure small changes in glacier surfaces will allow for new investigations of distribution of mass balance measurements.

Enhancement of a Parsimonious Water Balance Model to Simulate Surface Hydrology in a Glacierized Watershed

AbstractThe U.S. Geological Survey monthly water balance model (MWBM) was enhanced with the capability to simulate glaciers in order to make it more suitable for simulating cold region hydrology. The new model, MWBMglacier, is demonstrated in the heavily glacierized and ecologically important Copper River watershed in Southcentral Alaska. Simulated water budget components compared well to satellite‐based observations and ground measurements of streamflow, evapotranspiration, snow extent, and total water storage, with differences ranging from 0.2% to 7% of the precipitation flux. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for simulated and observed streamflow was greater than 0.8 for six of eight stream gages. Snow extent matched satellite‐based observations with Nash Sutcliffe efficiency values of greater than 0.89 in the four Copper River ecoregions represented. During the simulation period 1949 to 2009, glacier ice melt contributed 25% of total runoff, ranging from 12% to 45% in different tributaries, and glacierized area was reduced by 6%. Statistically significant (p &lt; 0.05) decreasing and increasing trends in annual glacier mass balance occurred during the multidecade cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, respectively, reinforcing the link between climate perturbations and glacier mass balance change. The simulations of glaciers and total runoff for a large, remote region of Alaska provide useful data to evaluate hydrologic, cryospheric, ecologic, and climatic trends. MWBM glacier is a valuable tool to understand when, and to what extent, streamflow may increase or decrease as glaciers respond to a changing climate.

Consistent interannual changes in glacier mass balance and their relationship with climate variation on the periphery of the Tibetan Plateau

Consistent interannual changes in glacier mass balance and their relationship with climate variation on the periphery of the Tibetan Plateau

Hydrologic Regime Changes in a High-Latitude Glacierized Watershed under Future Climate Conditions

A calibrated conceptual glacio-hydrological monthly water balance model (MWBMglacier) was used to evaluate future changes in water partitioning in a high-latitude glacierized watershed in Southcentral Alaska under future climate conditions. The MWBMglacier was previously calibrated and evaluated against streamflow measurements, literature values of glacier mass balance change, and satellite-based observations of snow covered area, evapotranspiration, and total water storage. Output from five global climate models representing two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) was used with the previously calibrated parameters to drive the MWBMglacier at 2 km spatial resolution. Relative to the historical period 1949–2009, precipitation will increase and air temperature in the mountains will be above freezing for an additional two months per year by mid-century which significantly impacts snow/rain partitioning and the generation of meltwater from snow and glaciers. Analysis of the period 1949–2099 reveals that numerous hydrologic regime shifts already occurred or are projected to occur in the study area including glacier accumulation area, snow covered area, and forest vulnerability. By the end of the century, Copper River discharge is projected to increase by 48%, driven by 21% more precipitation and 53% more glacial melt water (RCP 8.5) relative to the historical period (1949–2009).

Mass Balance Estimation Using Geodetic Method for Glaciers in Baspa Basin, Western Himalaya

Himalayan glaciers, which contribute to water security for almost 1.3 billion people in Asia, are now under threat due to climate change. Assessment of glacier mass balance changes is crucial to determine the implications of climate change, but in situ measurements are limited due to rugged terrain and harsh climate of the Himalaya. Remote sensing-based geodetic method is therefore important for studying the evolution of Himalayan glaciers at a large scale. In this study, the mass balance of glaciers located in Baspa basin (Western Himalaya) is estimated for a period of 11 years between 2000 and 2011, using geodetic method. Out of 89 glaciers in the basin, 42 glaciers (greater than 1 km(2)) covering an area of similar to 72% (215 km(2)) of the total glaciated area were selected for the study. A mean thinning of similar to 50 +/- 11 m and mean accumulation of similar to 35 +/- 11 m was observed during the study period, with the cumulative mass balance varying between -36.9 +/- 1.98 and 6.47 +/- 1.98 m.w.e. A mean annual mass loss of -1.09 +/- 0.32 m. w.e.a(-1) was observed for the entire basin, suggesting that the glaciers in Baspa basin are losing mass at higher rate compared to the glaciers in central and eastern Himalayas. This study demonstrates the utility of geodetic method to estimate mass balance of glaciers at basin scale, which will be useful to assess future changes in glacial extent and stream run-off.

An investigation on changes in glacier mass balance and hypsometry for a small mountainous glacier in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau

Mass balance is a key indicator of the sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Field measurement is one of the most important ways to study the mass balance of glaciers. Based on observations of mass balance in the ablation zone of Shuiguan Glacier No.4, Qilian Mountains, China, combined with the balance ratio between accumulation and ablation, we established a linear relation between mass balance and altitude. The results show that the mean annual mass balance of this glacier was ~510 mm w.e. from 2010 to 2013. The uncertainty in the balance ratio value does not lead to a significant difference in the mass balance. The equilibrium-line altitude rose by 180 m from 1972 to 2013, while the accumulation—area ratio decreased from 0.68 to 0.25. These variations may be caused by changes in air temperature. Meanwhile, the glacier is at present not in a steady state, and it may continue to shrink by a further ~900 m, even without further climate warming. In the western Lenglongling Mountains, assuming that the glaciers are in a steady state and the Equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs) remain similar, there will be only 46 glaciers left, covering a total area of 19.2 km2, in other words, only 22.3% of the glaciers area in 1972.

Recent geodetic mass balance of Monte Tronador glaciers, northern Patagonian Andes

Abstract. Glaciers in the northern Patagonian Andes (35–46° S) have shown a dramatic decline in area in the last decades. However, little is known about glacier mass balance changes in this region. This study presents a geodetic mass balance estimate of Monte Tronador (41.15° S; 71.88° W) glaciers by comparing a Pléiades digital elevation model (DEM) acquired in 2012 with the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) X-band DEM acquired in 2000. We find a slightly negative Monte-Tronador-wide mass budget of −0.17 m w.e. a−1 (ranging from −0.54 to 0.14 m w.e. a−1 for individual glaciers) and a slightly negative trend in glacier extent (−0.16 % a−1) over the 2000–2012 period. With a few exceptions, debris-covered valley glaciers that descend below a bedrock cliff are losing mass at higher rates, while mountain glaciers with termini located above this cliff are closer to mass equilibrium. Climate variations over the last decades show a notable increase in warm season temperatures in the late 1970s but limited warming afterwards. These warmer conditions combined with an overall drying trend may explain the moderate ice mass loss observed at Monte Tronador. The almost balanced mass budget of mountain glaciers suggests that they are probably approaching a dynamic equilibrium with current (post-1977) climate, whereas the valley glaciers tongues will continue to retreat. The slightly negative overall mass budget of Monte Tronador glaciers contrasts with the highly negative mass balance estimates observed in the Patagonian ice fields further south.

Distributed ice thickness and glacier volume in southern South America

South American glaciers, including those in Patagonia, presently contribute the largest amount of meltwater to sea level rise per unit glacier area in the world. Yet understanding of the mechanisms behind the associated glacier mass balance changes remains unquantified partly because models are hindered by a lack of knowledge of subglacial topography. This study applied a perfect-plasticity model along glacier centre-lines to derive a first-order estimate of ice thickness and then interpolated these thickness estimates across glacier areas. This produced the first complete coverage of distributed ice thickness, bed topography and volume for 617 glaciers between 41°S and 55°S and in 24 major glacier regions. Maximum modelled ice thicknesses reach 1631m±179m in the South Patagonian Icefield (SPI), 1315m±145m in the North Patagonian Icefield (NPI) and 936m±103m in Cordillera Darwin. The total modelled volume of ice is 1234.6km3±246.8km3 for the NPI, 4326.6km3±865.2km3 for the SPI and 151.9km3±30.38km3 for Cordillera Darwin. The total volume was modelled to be 5955km3±1191km3, which equates to 5458.3Gt±1091.6Gt ice and to 15.08mm±3.01mm sea level equivalent (SLE). However, a total area of 655km2 contains ice below sea level and there are 282 individual overdeepenings with a mean depth of 38m and a total volume if filled with water to the brim of 102km3. Adjusting the potential SLE for the ice volume below sea level and for the maximum potential storage of meltwater in these overdeepenings produces a maximum potential sea level rise (SLR) of 14.71mm±2.94mm. We provide a calculation of the present ice volume per major river catchment and we discuss likely changes to southern South America glaciers in the future. The ice thickness and subglacial topography modelled by this study will facilitate future studies of ice dynamics and glacier isostatic adjustment, and will be important for projecting water resources and glacier hazards.

Variations of the glacier mass balance and lake water storage in the Tarim Basin, northwest China, over the period of 2003–2009 estimated by the ICESat-GLAS data

Accurately estimating the changes in glacier mass balance and water storage in lakes and reservoirs is critical to studying the water cycle in the inland river basin in northwest China. We used high-resolution satellite images to analyze the changes in water surface area of lakes and reservoirs in Tarim Basin, and used the ICESat-GLAS altimeter data to estimate their water level changes and the glacier mass balance change, over the period 2003–2009. The results showed the average glacier thinning in the entire basin was at a rate of 0.34 ± 0.25 m w.e./year equivalent height of water, which means that the glacier mass balance occurred −6.8 ± 1.2 km3 water equivalent over the study period. However, the mean water level of nearby lakes decreased by 0.41 ± 0.2 m even with the influx of glacial melt water, indicating that the lake level declines were caused by the withdrawal of lake water for human activities.

Temporal and spatial changes in Western Himalayan firn line altitudes from 1998 to 2009

Understanding changes in glacier mass balance is important because it is indicative of changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle. The latter also has particular influence on people living near glaciers and/or glacier-fed rivers. The Western Himalayas remain one of the regions where recent changes in glacier mass balance are not well-known. The temporal and spatial changes in firn line altitudes are an indicator of equilibrium line altitudes and thus reflect changes in glacier mass balance. Here, we use Himalayan Landsat TM/ETM+ data in July and August (the late summer melt season) to quantify changes in firn line altitudes from 1998 to 2009. We produced reflectance maps through radiometric calibration and atmospheric correction and use topographic correction to remove or reduce terrain or shadow effects. The real ‘surface albedo’ is obtained by narrowband-to-broadband (NTB) albedo conversion from the combined solar radiation. The firn line altitude was then extracted by combining the ‘surface albedo’ with pre-registered digital elevation model. The individual firn line altitude varies by region. The Western Himalayas display the largest range of firn line variability, where the firn line altitudes vary from 4840m a.s.l. to 5770m a.s.l. The individual glacier mean firn line altitude from 1998 to 2009 rose from 5072±77m a.s.l. to 5640±74m a.s.l. in the Western Himalayas. The mean firn line altitude increased from 1998 to 2009. The lowest mean recorded firn line altitude recorded was 5237±166m a.s.l. in 1998, whereas the highest was 5397±135m a.s.l. in 2000. We also observed a difference between the changes in fine line altitudes of northern and southern slopes of the western Himalayans, as the northern slope glaciers display a greater increase in firn line altitudes than the southern slope glaciers. In the southern slope, changes in firn line altitudes correlate with NCDC-NOAA temperature and precipitation data. This sustained increase of firn line altitudes and associated loss of glacier mass imply a persistent loss of stored freshwater in the Western Himalaya.

Channel pattern of proglacial rivers: topographic forcing due to glacier retreat

ABSTRACTGlacier retreat leads to changes in channel pattern during deglaciation, in response to changing water, sediment and base level controls. Recent ongoing retreat at Skaftafellsjökull, Iceland (c. 50 m per year since 1998) has resulted in the formation of a sequence of river terraces, and several changes in river channel pattern. This paper compares widely used models of river channel pattern against the changes observed at Skaftafellsjökull. Doing this reveals the role of topographic forcing in determining proglacial channel pattern, whilst examining the predictive power and limitations of the various approaches to classifying river channels. Topography was found to play a large role in determining channel pattern in proglacial environments for two reasons: firstly, glacier retreat forces rivers to flow through confined moraine reaches. In these reaches, channels which theory predicts should be braided are forced to adopt a single channel. Secondly, proximal incision of proglacial rivers, accompanied by downstream aggradation, leads to changes in slope which force the river to cross channel pattern thresholds. The findings of this work indicate that in the short term, the majority of channel pattern change in proglacial rivers is due to topographic forcing, and that changes due to changing hydrology and sediment supply are initially relatively minor, although likely to increase in significance as deglaciation progresses. These findings have implications for palaeohydraulic studies, where changes in proglacial channel pattern are frequently interpreted as being due to changes in water or sediment supply. This paper shows that channel pattern can change at timescales faster than hydrological or sediment budget changes usually occur, in association with relatively minor changes in glacier mass balance. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

How well is firn densification represented by a physically based multilayer model? Model evaluation for Devon Ice Cap, Nunavut, Canada

AbstractEvaluation of how accurately snowpack models can capture hydrological processes in firn is critical to determining how well they will simulate future glacier mass-balance changes. Here we compare simulations using the Crocus snowpack model with the evolving firn stratigraphy recorded in 14 cores drilled at four elevations in the accumulation zone of Devon Ice Cap, Canada, during the 2004–12 period of rapid summer warming. Simulations were forced with a combination of surface observations and reanalysis data. Simulations resulted in positive model bias in near-surface density, and negative bias in density at depth compared to observations. Results point to the importance of incorporating heterogeneous percolation in firn in order to improve the representation of meltwater flow, better reproduce observed firn density and temperature profile evolution, and improve simulations of glacier mass balance during periods of climate warming.

Detection of Changes in Glacier Mass Balance Using Satellite and Meteorological Data in Tirungkhad Basin Located in Western Himalaya

Himalayan glaciers and their mass balance are poorly sampled through direct mass balance measurements. Thus, based on Landsat datasets of ETM+ (2000), ETM+ (2006) and TM (2011), mass balance studies of 32 glaciers was carried out using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method in the Tirungkhad river basin, a tributary of Satluj River, located in western Himalayan region. The overall specific mass balance was negative varying from −27 cm (2000) to −41 cm (2011). Out of 32 glaciers, 27 glaciers (81.2 %) showed negative mean mass balance and 5 glaciers (18.7 %) showed positive mean mass balance. Mean of specific mass balance for the year 2000, 2006 and 2011 was found to be −48 cm, −55 cm and −0.61 cm respectively, in case of glaciers with negative mass balance while in case of glaciers with positive mass balance, it was 0.67 cm (2000), 0.56 cm (2006) and 0.47 cm (2011). The investigations suggested a loss of −0.034 km3 of glacial ice for 2000, 0.036 km3 for 2006 and 0.038 km3 for 2011 respectively. The negative mass balance of the glaciers since 2000 correlates well with the increasing trend of annual mean temperature and decreasing trend of precipitation (snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall). Based on Mann Kendall test the temperature and SWE trends were significant at 95 % confidence level, however, the rainfall trend was insignificant.

Relative sea-level response to Little Ice Age ice mass change in south central Alaska: Reconciling model predictions and geological evidence

Integration of geological data and glacio-isostatic adjustment (GIA) modelling shows that it is possible to decouple complex mechanisms of relative sea-level (RSL) change in a tectonically active glacial environment. We model a simplest solution in which RSL changes in upper Cook Inlet, Alaska, are a combination of the interplay of tectonic and isostatic processes driven by the unique rheology of this tectonically active location. We calculate interseismic uplift during latter part of the penultimate earthquake cycle to vary from 0.3 to 0.7mm/yr. Diatom based reconstructions of RSL from tidal marsh sediment sequences coupled with detailed age models, from AD 1400 to the AD 1964 great earthquake, show deviations from a purely tectonically driven model of regional RSL. Glacial isostatic modelling, constrained by GPS data, predicts up to 70cm sea-level change due to mountain glacier mass balance changes during the Little Ice Age. Misfits between the GIA model predictions and RSL reconstructions in the 19th and 20th century highlight that the tidal marshes of upper Cook Inlet potentially record a hemispheric-wide acceleration in sea level and that other more complex Earth process combinations may contribute to regional RSL change.

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part II: application

AbstractThe glacier mass balance, area change, and glacier runoff in the Yarkant River Basin (YRB) and the Beida River Basin (BRB) were estimated from 1961 to 2006 by employing a modified monthly degree‐day model. Comparisons between the simulated and observed mass balance, equilibrium line altitude, and glacier runoff suggest that the model can be used to analyze the long‐term changes of glacier mass balance and runoff in the YRB and the BRB. The glacier mass balances of the YRB and the BYB both have a significantly decreasing trend with −4.39 mm a‐1 and −8.15 mm a‐1 from 1961 to 2006 because of a significant increase in ablation caused by increasing summer air temperatures, especially since 1996. The total runoff in glacier areas has a significant increasing trend with 0.23 × 108 m3 a‐1 and 0.02 × 108 m3 a‐1 in the YRB and the BRB, respectively. By comparing the mean mass balance during the period 1961 to 1986 with that of the 1987 to 2006, the BRB glacier mass balance's sensitivity to temperature is at 0.33 m a‐1 °C, nearly twice as much as that of the YRB at 0.16 m a‐1 °C. The difference between the glacier temperature sensitivity in the YRB and the BRB is primarily because the glacier elevation band area weighted altitude of the YRB is about 700 m higher than that of BRB. The glacier elevation band area weighted summer air temperature in the YRB is around 2 °C lower than that of the BRB. Therefore, the annual positive degree‐day of the YRB and the BRB increases by about 21.0 °C and 77.3 °C respectively when the summer air temperature increases by 1 °C, resulting into more glacier ablation and runoff in the BRB than in the YRB. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961–2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China

Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from national meteorological stations, 90 m resolution DEM and a digital vector map of modern glaciers from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China, were estimated based on a monthly degree-day model for 1961–2006. The results suggest that the modified monthly degree-day model can simulate the long-term changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff, which have been confirmed by short-term observation data and other results in literatures. The characteristics and trends of mass balance and glacier runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that the mean annual glacier mass balance during 1961–2006 was −139.2 mm per year and the cumulative mass balance over the 46 year period was −6.4 m in the TRB. The glacier mass balance displayed a clear decreasing trend over the entire TRB during 1961–2006. The average annual glacier runoff in the TRB was 144.16×108 m3 for 1961–2006. The results also show that glacier runoff has increased in the last 46 years, especially since the 1990s with 85.7% of the increased river flow being derived from the increased glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass. Over the entire TRB, glacier runoff accounts for 41.5% of the total river flow during 1961–2006. The impact of glacier runoff on river flow has increased in the TRB as a result of glacier shrinkage.

Identifying moraine surfaces with similar histories using lichen size distributions and the u2 statistic, southeast iceland

.Moraine ridges are commonly used to identify past glacier ice margins and so infer glacier mass balance changes in response to climatic variability. However, differences in the form of past ice margins and post‐depositional modification of moraine surfaces can complicate these geomorphic records. As a result, simple relationships, such as distance from current ice margin, or linear alignments, may not necessarily indicate moraines deposited contemporaneously. These disturbances can also modify the size distribution of lichen populations, providing a distinctive signature for surfaces with similar histories and a means of identifying contemporaneous moraine surfaces. In this paper, statistical analysis of lichen size distributions is used to identify moraine surfaces with similar histories from complex suites of Little Ice Age moraine fragments in the proglacial areas of Skálafellsjökull (including Sultartungnajökull) and Heinabergsjökull, southeast Iceland. The analysis is based on a novel use of the goodness‐of‐fit statistic, Watson's U2 which provides a measure of ‘closeness’ between two sample distributions. Moraine fragments with similar histories are identified using cluster analysis of the U2 closeness values. The spatial pattern of the clustered moraines suggests three distinct phases of moraine deposition at Skálafellsjökull and Heinabergsjökull, four phases at Sultartungnajökull and a digitate planform margin at Heinabergsjökull. These spatial patterns are corroborated with tephrochronology. The success of the U2 statistical analysis in identifying surfaces with similar histories using lichen size distributions suggests that the technique may be useful in augmenting lichenometric surface dating as well as differentiating between other surfaces that support lichen populations, such as rock avalanche deposits.