Glacier Length Changes Research Articles

PyESDv1.0.1: an open-source Python framework for empirical-statistical downscaling of climate information

Abstract. The nature and severity of climate change impacts vary significantly from region to region. Consequently, high-resolution climate information is needed for meaningful impact assessments and the design of mitigation strategies. This demand has led to an increase in the application of empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) models to general circulation model (GCM) simulations of future climate. In contrast to dynamical downscaling, the perfect prognosis ESD (PP-ESD) approach has several benefits, including low computation costs, the prevention of the propagation of GCM-specific errors, and high compatibility with different GCMs. Despite their advantages, the use of ESD models and the resulting data products is hampered by (1) the lack of accessible and user-friendly downscaling software packages that implement the entire downscaling cycle, (2) difficulties reproducing existing data products and assessing their credibility, and (3) difficulties reconciling different ESD-based predictions for the same region. We address these issues with a new open-source Python PP-ESD modeling framework called pyESD. pyESD implements the entire downscaling cycle, i.e., routines for data preparation, predictor selection and construction, model selection and training, evaluation, utility tools for relevant statistical tests, visualization, and more. The package includes a collection of well-established machine learning algorithms and allows the user to choose a variety of estimators, cross-validation schemes, objective function measures, and hyperparameter optimization in relatively few lines of code. The package is well-documented, highly modular, and flexible. It allows quick and reproducible downscaling of any climate information, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, or even short-term glacier length and mass changes. We demonstrate the use and effectiveness of the new PP-ESD framework by generating weather-station-based downscaling products for precipitation and temperature in complex mountainous terrain in southwestern Germany. The application example covers all important steps of the downscaling cycle and different levels of experimental complexity. All scripts and datasets used in the case study are publicly available to (1) ensure the reproducibility and replicability of the modeled results and (2) simplify learning to use the software package.

Future state of Norwegian glaciers: Estimating glacier mass balance and equilibrium line responses to projected 21st century climate change

Glaciers and ice caps in Norway are presently undergoing mass loss, areal reduction, and frontal retreat, mainly a result of increased summer ablation due to rising summer temperatures over Scandinavia, especially after 2000 CE. In this paper, the glacier mass-balance response of 10 Norwegian glaciers with continuous mass balance observations (>10 years) to climate projections from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100 have been estimated. Projected changes in mean summer temperature and mean winter precipitation from 1971–2000 to 2071–2100, applying the RCP8.5 emission scenario for five different regions in Norway; ‘Sogn og Fjordane’ and ‘Hordaland’, now Vestland County in western Norway, ‘Oppland’, now part of Innlandet County in eastern Norway, and Nordland County and Finnmark County, both in Northern Norway), range between +3.5°C and +5.0°C, and between +5% and +25%, respectively. These climate projections have been converted (by linear regression with overlapping observational mass-balance data) into specific surface glacier mass balance [winter balance ( Bw), summer balance ( Bs), and annual balance ( Ba) for 10 glaciers in Norway with mass-balance series [Ålfotbreen, Nigardsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Austdalsbreen (part of Jostedalsbreen), Rembesdalskåka (part of Hardangerjøkulen), Blomstølskardsbreen (part of Søre Folgefonna), Storbrean, Hellstugubrean, Gråsubrean, Engabreen (part of Vestre Svartisen, Langfjordjøkelen (data: http://glacier.nve.no/glacier/viewer/ci/no/ ) yielding a total, cumulative surface glacier mass loss from 2000 to 2100 CE in the range of -85.2 ± 4 to -197.3 ± 10 m water equivalents. The estimated changes in equilibrium-line altitudes (ELAs), in the range of 230 ± 10 to 630 ± 30 m, indicate that the mean ELA may reach the upper part of 7 of the 10 glaciers included in this study [Ålfotbreen, Austdalsbreen, Rembesdalskåka, Blomstølskardsbreen, Gråsubrean, Engabreen and Langfjordjøkelen] by the end of the 21st century. The projected glacier mass loss and ELA rise, and thus changes in glacier length, area and volume, will most likely have profound consequences for future glacier hydrology (runoff), hydropower production, wildlife, ecosystems, glacier hazards, and tourism.

WITHDRAWN:Comment on ‘Attribution of modern Andean glacier mass loss requires successful hindcast of pre-industrial glacier changes’ by Sebastian Lüning et al.

In our previous study, ‘Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat’ (Stuart-Smith et al., 2021; henceforth S21), we found that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the observed retreat of the Palcaraju glacier in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca cannot be explained by natural climate variability. Lüning et al. (2022; henceforth L22) claim that the numerical models used in StuartSmith et al. (2021) do not replicate the Andean temperature and glacier history of the Common Era, such that we provide an unsuccessful ‘hindcast’ of historical climatological and glacier-length changes that indicates limited glacier-length fluctuations in pre-industrial times, thus underestimating the potential contribution of natural variability to observed changes. Here we show that claims made in L22 are based on demonstrably manipulated data in some cases, and inaccurate or misleading assertions in others. The available glacial history of the region is, in fact, firmly in line with the findings of S21.

Timing and climatic-driven mechanisms of glacier advances in Bhutanese Himalaya during the Little Ice Age

Abstract. Mountain glaciers provide us a window into past climate changes and landscape evolution, but the pattern of glacier evolution at centennial or suborbital timescale remains elusive, especially in monsoonal Himalayas. We simulated the glacier evolution in Bhutanese Himalaya (BH), a typical monsoon-influenced region, during the Little Ice Age (LIA) using the Open Global Glacier Model driven by six paleoclimate datasets and their average. Compared with geomorphologically mapped glacial landforms, the model can well capture the patterns of glacier length change. Simulation results revealed four glacial substages (the 1270s, 1470s, 1710s, and 1850s) during LIA in the study area. Statistically, a positive correlation between the number of glacial substages and glacier slope was found, indicating that the occurrence of glacial substages might be a result from heterogeneous responses of glaciers to climate change. Monthly climate change analysis and sensitivity experiments indicated that the summer temperature largely dominates the regional glacier evolution during the LIA in BH.

Synchronous Retreat of Southeast Greenland's Peripheral Glaciers

AbstractRecently, scientific attention has focused on estimating Greenland's dynamic mass loss through changes to flow speeds, thickness, and length on its marine outlet glaciers. For the ice sheet outlet glaciers, dynamic mass loss has been found to be highly sensitive to changes in climate and individual glacier geometry. For the ice‐sheet‐independent marine glaciers around Greenland's periphery, dynamic mass loss is presently overlooked. Here, we apply an open‐source, automated method of measuring glacier length changes using satellite imagery, to produce highly detailed records of length changes for 135 peripheral marine glaciers in southeast Greenland. We find evidence for anomalous retreat across 56 glaciers coincident with elevated surface melt in 2016, with melt 22% above the 2013–2019 average. Our detailed observations resolve the widespread, rapid, and synchronous response of these independent marine glaciers to increased meltwater input in 2016, indicating that their dynamics may be more sensitive to atmospheric warming than currently thought.

Updated Surge‐Type Glacier Inventory in the West Kunlun Mountains, Tibetan Plateau, and Implications for Glacier Change

AbstractGlacier surging is a dynamic instability that affects the flow of some glaciers, modifying the glacier area, surface velocity, and surface elevation. It is also among the major causes of ice dams and glacier lake floods. Previous studies have shown that in the West Kunlun Mountains| (WKM) where a cluster of surge‐type glaciers had been found, the glaciers were relatively stable in recent years. Nevertheless, the surge cycle and its impact on glacier changes on a regional scale are poorly understood. In this study, we updated the surge‐type glacier inventory of the WKM using the detailed changes in glacier length, surface velocity, and surface elevation during the 1972–2020 period using 78 Landsat optical images, 86 Sentinel‐1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images, and three digital elevation models of the WKM. The updated results show that among the 423 glaciers in the WKM, 10 are confirmed as surge‐type glaciers, three are likely surge‐type glaciers, and five are possible surge‐type glaciers. Furthermore, these 18 glaciers account for 63% of the total glacier area. During the period analyzed, there were marked changes in the lengths, areas and surface elevations of all surge‐type glaciers, while those of the non‐surge‐type glaciers were relatively stable. These results appear to indicate that the observed regional trends of glaciers in the WKM recently may be related to the existence of surge‐type glaciers. Furthermore, the surge‐type glacier underwent advance after accelerating for 3–4 years, which could be used to forecast when glacier termini may advance and avoid the possible catastrophic damages.

Climate reconstructions for the Last Glacial Maximum from a simple cirque glacier in Fiordland, New Zealand

Mountain glacier records offer important constraints on the timing and magnitude of climate variability during the last glacial cycle. Existing moraine chronologies from the central Southern Alps indicate maximum ice extent was achieved during marine isotope stages 3–4, followed by repeated advances of similar, but gradually declining extent during marine isotope stage 2, until onset of the glacial termination. Questions remain over the precise role of climate in driving these changes, as most existing moraine chronologies come from large, complex former valley glacier systems, where non-climatic influences such as changing bed topography and proglacial lake formation may have influenced glacier length changes. Here we address this problem via a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology and equilibrium line altitude reconstruction from a cirque glacier situated in Fiordland, New Zealand. Our chronology shows moraine deposition at 32 ± 11 ka, 18.7 ± 0.2 ka, 18.1 ± 0.1 ka, and c. 17.2 ± 0.3 ka. The simple geometry of the former glacier supports the role of climate in driving a net decline of regional ice volume during marine isotope stages 3–2. Close spacing and good preservation of the 19–17 ka moraines permits 2D glacier reconstruction which suggests the equilibrium line altitude remained depressed by c.1130 m (equivalent to 5.8 ± 0.6 °C colder than present) during this interval. Onset of warming after 17.2 ± 0.2 ka is consistent with climate proxy evidence for a sustained southward shift in the southern westerly winds, which may have promoted deglaciation via shifting ocean currents and promoting increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Mass balances of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers, Nepal, from 2000 to 2017

Abstract. The glacier mass balance is an important variable to describe the climate system and is used for various applications like water resource management or runoff modelling. The direct or glaciological method and the geodetic method are the standard methods to quantify glacier mass changes, and both methods are an integral part of international glacier monitoring strategies. In 2011, we established two glacier mass-balance programmes on Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers in the Nepal Himalaya. Here we present the methods and data of the directly measured annual mass balances for the first six mass-balance years for both glaciers from 2011/2012 to 2016/2017. For Yala Glacier we additionally present the directly measured seasonal mass balance from 2011 to 2017, as well as the mass balance from 2000 to 2012 obtained with the geodetic method. In addition, we analysed glacier length changes for both glaciers. The directly measured average annual mass-balance rates of Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers are −0.80 ± 0.28 and −0.39 ± 0.32 m w.e. a−1, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. The geodetically measured annual mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier based on digital elevation models from 2000 and 2012 is −0.74 ± 0.53 m w.e. The cumulative mass loss for the period 2011 to 2017 for Yala and Rikha Samba glaciers is −4.80 ± 0.69 and −2.34 ± 0.79 m w.e., respectively. The mass loss on Yala Glacier from 2000 to 2012 is −8.92 ± 6.33 m w.e. The winter balance of Yala Glacier is positive, and the summer balance is negative in every investigated year. The summer balance determines the annual balance. Compared to regional mean geodetic mass-balance rates in the Nepalese Himalaya, the mean mass-balance rate of Rikha Samba Glacier is in a similar range, and the mean mass-balance rate of Yala Glacier is more negative because of the small and low-lying accumulation area. During the study period, a change of Yala Glacier's surface topography has been observed with glacier thinning and downwasting. The retreat rates of Rikha Samba Glacier are higher than for Yala Glacier. From 1989 to 2013, Rikha Samba Glacier retreated 431 m (−18.0 m a−1), and from 1974 to 2016 Yala Glacier retreated 346 m (−8.2 m a−1). The data of the annual and seasonal mass balances, point mass balance, geodetic mass balance, and length changes are accessible from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS, 2021), https://doi.org/10.5904/wgms-fog-2021-05.

Local summer insolation and greenhouse gas forcing drove warming and glacier retreat in New Zealand during the Holocene

Geological climate archives from the Holocene Epoch provide baseline information concerning natural climate variability. Temperate mountain glacier extent is sensitive to summer air temperature, thus geological records of past glacier length changes are a useful proxy for this climatic variable. Here we present a new cosmogenic 10Be chronology of glacier length changes at Dart Glacier in the Southern Alps, New Zealand. Prominent moraines deposited 321 ± 44 yr ago (n = 11) and 7.8 ± 0.3 ka (n = 5) show glaciers during the Little Ice Age were less extensive than during the early Holocene. This pattern of net Holocene glacier retreat is consistent with emerging data from other catchments in New Zealand and across the southern mid-latitudes. Using the physical framework of a transient global climate model simulation, we suggest that cool summers in the early Holocene were promoted by the local summer insolation minimum, together with low atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, causing an early Holocene austral glacial maximum. An insolation-driven reduction in seasonality at southern mid-latitudes may reconcile differences between early Holocene temperature reconstructions where climate proxies have different seasonal sensitivities. We suggest that rising greenhouse gas concentrations after 7 ka caused regional-scale glacier retreat and appear to be the dominant driver of multi-millennial summer temperature trends in the southern mid-latitudes during the present interglacial.

Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium

Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.

Quantification of volume loss and snout retreat from 1980 to 2019 of baspa basin glaciers, western himalaya

Himalayan glaciers are under the enhanced retreating process and filed observations are scarce due to the harsh terrain and inclement weather in the upper Himalayan region. Under these conditions, the use of remote sensing and GIS technique is the best option for long term change detection in glacial features. Glacier length, area, and volume change analyses have been done using Landsat data series (MSS, TM, ETM+, and OLI/TIRS) from 1980 to 2019. Glaciers of Baspa basin were digitized in 1980 and 75 glaciers were reported whereas in 2019, number of glaciers were 84. During the period of 1980 to 2019, the number of glaciers were increased by 9 in the Baspa basin but the volume has been reduced. The increase in number has been due to the conversion of larger glaciers into a few smaller glaciers under the melting process.The results showed a general trend of loss in the areas and volume of the glaciers with varying magnitudes at different glaciers of the Baspa basin and in different periods. The overall retreat during 1980–2019 has been 22.40 ± 4.46% with the average loss in the area as 1.11 ± 0.01 km2 a-1 in the entire Baspa basin. The smallest rate of loss in the glacier area has been observed as 1.05 ± 0.01 km2 a-1 from 2001 to 2013. The Baspa basin possessed a glacial volume of 16.26 km3 in the year 1980 that got reduced to 12.98 km3 by the year 2019. The total loss in 39 years (1980–2019) has been calculated as 3.28 km3. The rate of loss in volume is highest in the period 2013 to 2019 which is 0.116 km3 a-1 and the minimum rate of loss in volume was observed from 1994 to 2001 i.e. 0.035 km3 a-1.The results on changes in the areal cover of glaciers as well as the volume are important for quantification of future water availability on the basis which controls the water supply in the river system. It is also of use in the planning of the hydropower sectors as well as the existing power plants in terms of the potential to generate electricity.

Modelling regional glacier length changes over the last millennium using the Open Global Glacier Model

Abstract. A large majority of the direct observational record for glacier changes falls within the industrial period, from the 19th century onward, associated with global glacier retreat. Given this availability of data and the significant focus in contemporary glacier modelling falling on recent retreat, glacier models are typically calibrated using – and validated with – only observations of glaciers that are considerably out of equilibrium. In order to develop a broader picture of the skill of one glacier model – the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) – we model glaciers for extended historical timescales of 850–2004 CE using a selection of six general circulation model (GCM) outputs. We select glaciers for which long-term length observations are available in order to compare these observations with the model results, and we find glaciers with such observations in almost all glacierised regions globally. In many regions, the mean modelled glacier changes are consistent with observations, with recent observed retreat in these regions typically at the steeper end of the range of modelled retreats. However, on the scale of individual glaciers, performance of the model is worse, with overall correlation between observed and modelled retreat weak for all of the GCM datasets used to force the model. We also model the same set of glaciers using modified climate time series from each of the six GCMs that keep temperature or precipitation constant, testing the impact of each individually. Temperature typically explains considerably more variance in glacier lengths than precipitation, but results suggest that the interaction between the two is also significant within OGGM and neither can be seen as a simple proxy for glacier length changes. OGGM proves capable of reproducing recent observational trends on at least a qualitative level in many regions, with a modelling period over a considerably larger timescale than it is calibrated for. Prospects are good for more widespread use of OGGM for timescales extending to the pre-industrial period, where glaciers were typically larger and experience less rapid (and less globally consistent) geometry changes, but additional calibration will be required in order to have confidence in the magnitude of modelled changes, particularly on the scale of individual glaciers.

Long-term records of glacier surface velocities in the Ötztal Alps (Austria)

Abstract. Climatic forcing affects glacier mass balance, which causes changes in ice flow dynamics and glacier length changes on different timescales. Mass balance and length changes are operationally used for glacier monitoring, whereas only a few time series of glacier dynamics have been recorded. Here we present a unique dataset of yearly averaged ice flow velocity measurements at stakes and stone lines covering more than 100 years on Hintereisferner and more than 50 years on Kesselwandferner. Moreover, the dataset contains sub-seasonal variations in ice flow from Gepatschferner and Taschachferner covering almost 10 years. The ice flow velocities on Hintereisferner and (especially) on Kesselwandferner show great variation between advancing and retreating periods, with magnitudes increasing from the stakes at higher elevations to the lower-elevated stakes, making ice flow records at ablation stakes a very sensitive indicator of glacier state. Since the end of the latest glacier advances from the 1970s to the 1980s, the ice flow velocities have decreased continuously, a strong indicator of the negative mass balances of the glaciers in recent decades. The velocity datasets of the four glaciers are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.896741.

Interannual climate variability helps define the mean state of glaciers

ABSTRACTChanges in glacier length and extent are indicators of contemporary and archives of past climate changes, but this common climate proxy presents a challenge for inferring a climate signal. Modeling studies suggest that length fluctuations can occur due to interannual climate variability within an unchanging mean climate and that changes in interannual climate variability can also drive changes in average length. This paper quantifies the impacts of interannual climate variability on average glacier length and mass balance, using a flowline model coupled to a simplified mass-balance model. Results illustrate that changes in the magnitude of interannual temperature variability can non-linearly affect the mean glacier length through a mass-balance asymmetry between warm and cold years. This asymmetry is present in models where melt only initiates after a temperature threshold is crossed. Glaciers susceptible to this asymmetry can be identified based on the shape of their mass-balance profiles. The presence of mass-balance asymmetries in glaciological databases is evaluated, but current records are too short for high statistical resolving power. While the asymmetry in this study can affect the average length and mass-balance, its impacts are small, and paleoclimate interpretations from glacier-length changes are likely not notably influenced by this process.

Three-Dimensional Glacier Changes in Geladandong Peak Region in the Central Tibetan Plateau

In this study, contour lines from the topographic maps at a 1:100,000 scale (mapped in 1968), Landsat MSS/TM/OLI images, ASTER images and SPOT 6-7 stereo image pairs were used to study changes in glacier length, area and surface elevation. We summarized the results using the following three conclusions: (1) During the period from 1973 to 2013, glaciers retreated by 412 ± 32 m at a mean retraction rate of 10.3 ± 0.8 m·year−1 and the relative retreat was 5.6 ± 0.4%. The glacier area shrank by 7.5 ± 3.4%, which was larger than the glacier length. In the periods of 1968–2000, 2000–2005 and 2000–2013, the glacier surface elevation change rates were −7.7 ± 1.4 m (−0.24 ± 0.04 m·year−1), −1.9 ± 1.5 m (−0.38 ± 0.25 m·year−1) and −5.0 ± 1.4 m (−0.38 ± 0.11 m·year−1), respectively. The changes in the glacier area and thickness exhibited similar trends, both showing a significant increasing reduction after 2000. (2) Eleven glaciers were identified as surging glaciers. Changes of the mass balance in surging glaciers were stronger than in non-surging glaciers between 1968 and 2013. Changes of area in surging glaciers were weaker than in non-surging glaciers. (3) Increasing temperature was the major cause of glacier thickness reduction and area shrinkage. The increase in precipitation, to a certain extent, inhibited glacial ablation but it did not change the status of the shrinkage in the glacial area and the reduction in the glacier thickness.

Testing the consistency between changes in simulated climate and Alpine glacier length over the past millennium

Abstract. It is standard to compare climate model results covering the past millennium and reconstructions based on various archives in order to test the ability of models to reproduce the observed climate variability. Up to now, glacier length fluctuations have not been used systematically in this framework even though they offer information on multi-decadal to centennial variations complementary to other records. One reason is that glacier length depends on several complex factors and so cannot be directly linked to the simulated climate. However, climate model skill can be measured by comparing the glacier length computed by a glacier model driven by simulated temperature and precipitation to observed glacier length variations. This is done here using the version 1.0 of the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) forced by fields derived from a range of simulations performed with global climate models over the past millennium. The glacier model is applied to a set of Alpine glaciers for which observations cover at least the 20th century. The observed glacier length fluctuations are generally well within the range of the simulations driven by the various climate model results, showing a general consistency with this ensemble of simulations. Sensitivity experiments indicate that the results are much more sensitive to the simulated climate than to OGGM parameters. This confirms that the simulations of glacier length can be used to evaluate the climate model performance, in particular the simulated summer temperatures that largely control the glacier changes in our region of interest. Simulated glacier length is strongly influenced by the internal variability in the system, putting limitations on the model–data comparison for some variables like the trends over the 20th century in the Alps. Nevertheless, comparison of glacier length fluctuations on longer timescales, for instance between the 18th century and the late 20th century, appear less influenced by the natural variability and indicate clear differences in the behaviour of the various climate models.

Review of the status and mass changes of Himalayan-Karakoram glaciers

ABSTRACTWe present a comprehensive review of the status and changes in glacier length (since the 1850s), area and mass (since the 1960s) along the Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) region and their climate-change context. A quantitative reliability classification of the field-based mass-balance series is developed. Glaciological mass balances agree better with remotely sensed balances when we make an objective, systematic exclusion of likely flawed mass-balance series. The Himalayan mean glaciological mass budget was similar to the global average until 2000, and likely less negative after 2000. Mass wastage in the Himalaya resulted in increasing debris cover, the growth of glacial lakes and possibly decreasing ice velocities. Geodetic measurements indicate nearly balanced mass budgets for Karakoram glaciers since the 1970s, consistent with the unchanged extent of supraglacial debris-cover. Himalayan glaciers seem to be sensitive to precipitation partly through the albedo feedback on the short-wave radiation balance. Melt contributions from HK glaciers should increase until 2050 and then decrease, though a wide range of present-day area and volume estimates propagates large uncertainties in the future runoff. This review reflects an increasing understanding of HK glaciers and highlights the remaining challenges.

An exercise in glacier length modeling: Interannual climatic variability alone cannot explain Holocene glacier fluctuations in New Zealand

Recent model studies suggest that interannual climatic variability could be confounding the interpretation of glacier fluctuations as climate signals. Paleoclimate interpretations of moraine positions and associated cosmogenic exposure ages may have large uncertainties if the glacier in question was sensitive to interannual variability. Here we address the potential for interannual temperature and precipitation variability to cause large shifts in glacier length during the Holocene. Using a coupled ice-flow and mass-balance model, we simulate the response of Cameron Glacier, a small mountain glacier in New Zealand's Southern Alps, to two types of climate forcing: equilibrium climate and variable climate. Our equilibrium results suggest a net warming trend from the Early Holocene (10.69±0.41 ka; 2.7 °C cooler than present) to the Late Holocene (CE 1864; 1.3 °C cooler than present). Interannual climatic variability cannot account for the Holocene glacier fluctuations in this valley. Future studies should consider local environmental characteristics, such as a glacier's climatic setting and topography, to determine the magnitude of glacier length changes caused by interannual variability.

Glacier Monitoring and Capacity Building: Important Ingredients for Sustainable Mountain Development

Glacier observation data from major mountain regions of the world are key to improving our understanding of glacier changes: they deliver fundamental baseline information for climatological, hydrological, and hazard assessments. In many mountain ecosystems, as well as in the adjacent lowlands, glaciers play a crucial role in freshwater provision and regulation. This article first presents the state of the art on glacier monitoring and related strategies within the framework of the Global Terrestrial Network for Glaciers (GTN-G). Both in situ measurements of changes in glacier mass, volume, and length as well as remotely sensed data on glacier extents and changes over entire mountain ranges provide clear indications of climate change. Based on experiences from capacity-building activities undertaken in the Tropical Andes and Central Asia over the past years, we also review the state of the art on institutional capacity in these regions and make further recommendations for sustainable mountain development. The examples from Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, and Kyrgyzstan demonstrate that a sound understanding of measurement techniques and of the purpose of measurements is necessary for successful glacier monitoring. In addition, establishing durable institutions, capacity-building programs, and related funding is necessary to ensure that glacier monitoring is sustainable and maintained in the long term. Therefore, strengthening regional cooperation, collaborating with local scientists and institutions, and enhancing knowledge sharing and dialogue are envisaged within the GTN-G. Finally, glacier monitoring enhances the resilience of the populations that depend on water resources from glacierized mountains or that are affected by hazards related to glacier changes. We therefore suggest that glacier monitoring be included in the development of sustainable adaptation strategies in regions with glaciated mountains.

Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

Abstract. Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions. In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300–1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume–area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity. We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balance–altitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance–altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may behave similarly, making them particularly vulnerable to climate change.