WITHDRAWN:Comment on ‘Attribution of modern Andean glacier mass loss requires successful hindcast of pre-industrial glacier changes’ by Sebastian Lüning et al.

Abstract

In our previous study, ‘Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat’ (Stuart-Smith et al., 2021; henceforth S21), we found that it is virtually certain (>99% probability) that the observed retreat of the Palcaraju glacier in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca cannot be explained by natural climate variability. Lüning et al. (2022; henceforth L22) claim that the numerical models used in StuartSmith et al. (2021) do not replicate the Andean temperature and glacier history of the Common Era, such that we provide an unsuccessful ‘hindcast’ of historical climatological and glacier-length changes that indicates limited glacier-length fluctuations in pre-industrial times, thus underestimating the potential contribution of natural variability to observed changes. Here we show that claims made in L22 are based on demonstrably manipulated data in some cases, and inaccurate or misleading assertions in others. The available glacial history of the region is, in fact, firmly in line with the findings of S21.