Future Changes Research Articles

GIS-BASED ESTIMATION OF SHORELINE CHANGE AT THE OLIE PIER HARBOR HERITAGE SITE, MANGGAR, EAST BELITUNG, INDONESIA

The coastal area is a dynamic region influenced by continuous interactions between land and the sea. Changes in coastal compositions are closely related to shoreline instability. This study analyzes coastline changes at the Olie Pier Heritage Site, Manggar, East Belitung, Indonesia, using statistical-based techniques EPR (End Point Rate) and NSM (Net Shoreline Movement) 2015 to 2023. The DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) was employed to calculate the shoreline alterations in every transect with a distance of about 100 m. The study area is generally predominated by a moderate abrasion. The EPR and NSM values indicate a potential for future shoreline changes, considering the present status and future estimations of oceanographic parameters (currents, wind, waves, tides). The highest erosion is identified in the Lalang Village with a shoreline retreat (NSM) of -65.38 m and a retreat rate (EPR) of 8.78 m/year. On the other hand, the highest accretion is observed in the Baru Village with a NSM of -56.68 m and EPR of 7.61 m/year. The implications of these shoreline changes on the heritage site and the coastal environment contribute to the management of coastal areas amidst global environmental challenges. This study provides valuable insights into conservation and sustainable development efforts in the coastal region of East Belitung.

Headlining mental health in a changing climate: a systematic analysis of climate change and mental health news coverage from Canada and the United States

Climate change exerts a profound and far-reaching toll on mental health, resulting in mental illness, diminished wellbeing, and strained social relations, with the severity of these impacts anticipated to intensify under future climate change. News coverage of climate-mental health issues can shape public perceptions and responses, and therefore understanding this coverage is vital for creating and implementing strategies to lessen climate-mental health risks. We systematically examined the extent, nature, and range of news articles from Canada and the United States that covered climate-mental health impacts. Five electronic databases were searched. Articles were included if they were print or online news stories that covered climate-mental health impacts and were published in English or French by sources in Canada or the United States between 2016 and 2020. A total of 1085 articles (642 unique stories) met the inclusion criteria and underwent data extraction and analysis using descriptive statistics and thematic analysis. Coverage of climate-mental health outcomes increased in both Canada and the United States from 2016 to 2019. There was, however, a substantial decrease in coverage by Canadian news outlets from 2019 to 2020. Further, although 468 different news outlets published at least one story on the topic, repeat coverage by any one news outlet was infrequent. Most opinion pieces presented climate-mental health impacts as legitimate or expressed support for people experiencing these issues. Roughly half of the included stories identified populations that are vulnerable to climate-mental health impacts, particularly children and young people. Additionally, approximately half of the included stories identified potential interventions or coping strategies to protect mental health, most often involving changes to individual lifestyles or behavior. More sustained coverage that focuses on protective factors, interventions, and coping strategies is needed, as this could help foster public understanding and drive action to reduce climate-mental health risks.

“AI Will Be the Beating Heart of the City”: Connectivity and/as Care in The Line

Artificial intelligence will be “the beating heart” (Bell, 2022, para. 1) of the linear smart city The Line<em> </em>in Saudi Arabia, one of the most expensive and expansive urban living projects of our times—and crucial in the larger vision of a post-oil future for Saudi Arabia. Exemplary of the complex relationship between past and future in constructing alternative urban imaginaries, the promotional material of The Line<em> </em>highlights technology as the best—and apparently only—solution to “maintain, continue, and repair our ‘world’ so that we can live in it as well as possible” (Tronto & Fisher, 1990, p. 40), while at the same time imagining artificial intelligence itself as a living and “organic” presence in the urban. Following David Pinder’s understanding of cities as always both imagined and real, immaterial and material, this article draws on care as a critical lens to explore the construction of The Line in answer to Nick Dunn’s provoking question: “So can imagining the future change it?” (Dunn, 2018, p. 376). Tracing “care in a manufactured landscape” (Mattern, 2021, p. 144) here highlights the entanglement between technology and sustainability, between organic metaphors and artificial environments, between virtual connection and material exhaustion. Critically examining the promise embedded in contemporary architectural projects to deliver “new and imaginative solutions” (NEOM, 2022e) for the physical, psychological, and environmental exhaustion of urban life, this article proposes an understanding of connectivity and care as increasingly entangled—and argues that the urban vision put forward in The Line, ultimately, hinges on care as connectivity rather than caring interconnections, networked logics rather than networks of belonging.

Physiological responses of Atlantic cod to climate change indicate that coastal ecotypes may be better adapted to tolerate ocean stressors

Healthy ecosystems and species have some degree of resilience to changing conditions, however as the frequency and severity of environmental changes increase, resilience may be diminished or lost. In Sweden, one example of a species with reduced resilience is the Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). This species has been subjected to overfishing, and with additional pressures such as habitat degradation and changing environmental conditions there has been little to no recovery, despite more than a decade of management actions. Given the historical ecological, economical, and cultural significance of cod, it is important to understand how Atlantic cod respond to global climate change to recover and sustainably manage this species in the future. A multi-stressor experiment was conducted to evaluate physiological responses of juvenile cod exposed to warming, ocean acidification, and freshening, changes expected to occur in their nursery habitat. The response to single drivers showed variable effects related to fish biometrics and increased levels of oxidative stress dependent parameters. Importantly, two separate responses were seen within a single treatment for the multi-stressor and freshening groups. These within-treatment differences were correlated to genotype, with the offshore ecotype having a heightened stress response compared to the coastal ecotype, which may be better adapted to tolerate future changes. These results demonstrate that, while Atlantic cod have some tolerance for future changes, ecotypes respond differently, and cumulative effects of multiple stressors may lead to deleterious effects for this important species.

Perception of motion salience shapes the emergence of collective motions

Despite the profound implications of self-organization in animal groups for collective behaviors, understanding the fundamental principles and applying them to swarm robotics remains incomplete. Here we propose a heuristic measure of perception of motion salience (MS) to quantify relative motion changes of neighbors from first-person view. Leveraging three large bird-flocking datasets, we explore how this perception of MS relates to the structure of leader-follower (LF) relations, and further perform an individual-level correlation analysis between past perception of MS and future change rate of velocity consensus. We observe prevalence of the positive correlations in real flocks, which demonstrates that individuals will accelerate the convergence of velocity with neighbors who have higher MS. This empirical finding motivates us to introduce the concept of adaptive MS-based (AMS) interaction in swarm model. Finally, we implement AMS in a swarm of ~102 miniature robots. Swarm experiments show the significant advantage of AMS in enhancing self-organization of the swarm for smooth evacuations from confined environments.

Temporal changes in geographic range and population size of the Santa Cruz Black Salamander

Abstract The Santa Cruz Black Salamander Aneides niger is a priority 3 California species of special concern with a restricted geographic range confined to the Santa Cruz Mountains. Anecdotal observations suggest that the species was relatively abundant in the early 1900’s, but it has become more difficult to find in the past few decades. To better understand if the species has undergone population size fluctuations, we analyzed mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data to examine levels of genetic variation, phylogeographic structure, and test for signatures of population size change. We then reconstructed the climatic suitability for the species to A) determine if past climate fluctuations could have influenced range size and genetic diversity, and B) to estimate the effects of future climate change on geographic range suitability as a proxy for possible future population size change. Genetic analyses detected low levels of genetic variation and a general lack of genetic structuring, suggesting a recent genetic bottleneck. While neutrality tests of individual loci were non-significant, skyline plot and isolation-with-migration analyses detected a relatively recent reduction in population size. These genetic results should be interpreted with consideration of the limited number of localities and individuals that have been sampled for this species. Climatic suitability for Santa Cruz Black Salamanders was much lower during the last glacial maximum, which could be the cause of the detected historical change in population size. Future projections of climatic suitability under a high emission scenario suggest a dramatic geographic range restriction to coastal areas. These projections highlight the need for the protection of coastal habitat patches to preserve existing coastal populations, and to maintain connectivity between coastal and inland habitats to allow the westward movement of populations and genes in response to climate change.

Human Transformation (HX) in the Age of AI and the Challenges of Education through the Post-Human Debate

Concerning a posthuman perspective, this paper attempts to provide a new perspective on future changes in teaching and learning in the age of artificial intelligence. With the development of technological civilisation, humans have adapted to the environmental world while at the same time attempting to remould it using technology and tools. Humans have survived by acquiring new skills and abilities to manipulate technology and tools. Human Transformation (HX), updated to respond to technological innovations, is now upcoming human intellectual activities through AI technology. What are the challenges of HX in the age of AI, and what perspectives will be critical in this process? This paper traces back to how machines with computational intelligence or reasoning functions were named ‘artificial intelligence’ that can reproduce human intellectual activities. It examines the wide-ranging social impact of the naming of AI and the growing phenomenon of expectations and anxieties about AI. It then notes two sources behind the posthuman debate. The first is the trend towards an upgraded stage of human intelligence over the current human by enhancing it through medical and even AI-based technology. The second trend seeks a new direction for post-humanity by focusing on its diversity, such as society and culture, through a critical examination of the view that uniformly evaluates all human conditions through a universal model of human beings. Navigating them is an excellent educational challenge. Focusing on the similarities and differences between human intelligence and artificial intelligence, the paper examines the challenges of education to develop the unique characteristics of human intelligence further and achieve freedom from AI technology, considering the legal, ethical and social issues (ELSI) of making wise use of AI.

Should I stay or should I go? The influence of environmental conditions on green turtle residence time and outward transit in foraging areas

Foraging animals move through the environment to satisfy their requirements for food, rest, reproduction and risk-avoidance. Understanding how animals respond to changing environmental conditions can help to characterise favourable habitat and determine whether they might be motivated to depart when those habitats become unsuitable. Foraging green turtles are typically residents that scarcely move in response to environmental changes or disturbances. Some individuals though, exhibit high mobility at fine scales. We developed an analysis of Fastloc GPS tracks of 61 green turtles using cox regression models and generalised linear mixed models to investigate the influence of a suite of environmental characteristics on the length of residence time and probability of turtles transitioning between two behavioural modes, “stay” or “go”. Decisions to move (“go”) were influenced by short-term changes in the local environmental conditions. Individuals were more likely to “stay” when temperature increased during their stay and were more likely to “go” when turbidity decreased, and they entered deeper habitats. This result implies that foraging and resting (“staying”) primarily occurs in benthic, shallow, warm habitats, while transit (“going”) is facilitated in deeper, clear water. We also determined that individuals within the green turtle foraging aggregation respond differently to environmental cues to move and hypothesise that a diversity of strategies within a foraging aggregation could confer its resilience to disturbance events. Our study provides new evidence of the factors influencing movements in green turtles and can aid in predicting how they may respond to future changes and enhance risk mitigation efforts through dynamic and adaptive planning.

From educator to facilitator: Healthcare professionals' experiences of, and views about, delivering a type 1 diabetes structured education programme (DAFNEplus ) informed by behavioural science.

The DAFNEplus programme incorporates behaviour change techniques into a modified educational intervention and was developed to help address the glycaemic drift observed amongst graduates of standard DAFNE programmes. As the programme's success will be contingent on staff buy-in, we explored healthcare professionals' experiences of, and views about, delivering DAFNEplus during a clinical trial to help inform decision making about rollout post-trial. We interviewed n = 18 nurses and dieticians who delivered DAFNEplus during the trial. Data were analysed thematically. While many shared initial reservations, all described how their experiences of DAFNEplus programme delivery had had a positive, transformative impact upon their perceptions and working practices. This transformation was enabled by initial training and supervision sessions, the confidence gained from using scripts to support novel programme content delivery, and experiences of delivering the programme and observing DAFNEplus principles being well received by, and having a positive impact on, attendees. Due to these positive experiences, interviewees described a strongly felt ethical mandate to use some DAFNEplus techniques and curriculum content in routine clinical care. While being supportive of a national rollout, they anticipated a variety of attitudinal and logistical (e.g. workload) challenges. This study provides a vital dimension to the evaluation of the DAFNEplus programme. Interviewees found the intervention to be acceptable and expressed high levels of buy-in. As well as offering potential endorsement for a national rollout, our findings offer insights which could help inform development and rollout of future behaviour change interventions to support diabetes self-management.

Warming alters cascading effects of a dominant arthropod predator on fungal community composition in the Arctic.

The Arctic contains nearly half of the global pool of soil organic carbon and is one of the fastest warming regions on the planet. Accelerated decomposition of soil organic carbon due to warming could cause positive feedbacks to climate change through increased greenhouse gas emissions; thus, changes in ecological dynamics in this region are of global relevance. Microbial structure is an important driver of decomposition and is affected by both abiotic and biotic conditions. Yet how activities of soil-dwelling organisms in higher trophic levels influence microbial structure and function is unclear. In this study, we demonstrate that predicted changes in abundances of a dominant predator and warming interactively affect the structure of litter-dwelling fungal communities in the Arctic. These findings suggest predators may have widespread, indirect cascading effects on microbial communities, which could influence ecosystem responses to future climate change.

Impact of weather patterns and meteorological factors on PM2.5 and O3 responses to the COVID-19 lockdown in China

Abstract. Haze events in the North China Plain (NCP) and a decline in ozone levels in Southern Coast China (SC) from 21 January to 9 February 2020 during the COVID-19 lockdown have attracted public curiosity and scholarly attention. Most previous studies focused on the impact of atmospheric chemistry processes associated with anomalous weather elements in these cases, but fewer studies quantified the impact of various weather elements within the context of a specific weather pattern. To identify the weather patterns responsible for inducing this unexpected situation and to further quantify the importance of different meteorological factors during the haze event, two approaches are employed. These approaches implemented the comparisons of observations in 2020 with climatology averaged over the years 2015–2019 with a novel structural SOM (self-organising map) model and with the prediction of the “business as usual” (hereafter referred to as BAU) emission strength by the GBM (gradient-boosting machine) model, respectively. The results reveal that the unexpected PM2.5 pollution and O3 decline from the climatology in NCP and SC could be effectively explained by the presence of a double-centre high-pressure system across China. Moreover, the GBM results provided a quantitative assessment of the importance of each meteorological factor in driving the predictions of PM2.5 and O3 under the specific weather system. These results indicate that temperature played the most crucial role in the haze event in NCP, as well as in the O3 change in SC. This valuable information will ultimately contribute to our ability to predict air pollution under future emission scenarios and changing weather patterns that may be influenced by climate change.

Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model.

The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China's citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting for 22.49% of the country's land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China.

Assessing the suitability of a surveillance fauna-monitoring program for detecting future changes in reptile occupancy

Context Ecological surveillance monitoring typically targets multiple taxonomic groups by using standardised sampling across large spatial scales. Although surveillance monitoring confers advantages over hypothesis-driven monitoring in its broad taxonomic and spatial scope, the approach has been criticised for its disconnect from ecological management and failure to provide insights on the drivers of ecological change Aims To assess the adequacy of a plot-based general fauna-monitoring program for sampling reptiles as indicators of ecosystem health in a semi-arid upland region of the Northern Territory, Australia. Methods We surveyed reptiles at 90 sites, stratified between major landform and vegetation types, and using standard fauna-sampling methods, across the 2568 km2 Tjoritja National Park in the MacDonnell Ranges. We compiled a full inventory of the reptile fauna of the study area and identified species with potential utility as ecological indicators. We then used single-season occupancy models and power analyses to evaluate the adequacy of sampling for detecting potential future changes in occupancy. Key results We detected 57 of the 68 reptile species known from the protected area, 17 of which are potentially useful indicators of ecological health, mostly related to fire management. There was insufficient power to detect moderate (50%) future changes in reptile occupancy for all but the single most detected species. For the two ecological indicator species with sufficient detections for occupancy modelling, a positive association with a keystone structure (dense spinifex grass) was confirmed. However, increasing detection probability or the number of surveys would result in only minor improvements in power to detect occupancy change in these species. Conclusions Although reptiles are potentially useful indicators of ecological health, particularly in relation to fire regimes, the number of sites required to detect future changes in reptile occupancy by using standardised plot-based monitoring in this protected area is prohibitively high. Implications Our results suggest that once ecological associations are understood, monitoring ecological health remotely by using techniques such as fire-scar mapping to track proportions of long-unburnt vegetation should be considered over labour-intensive surveillance monitoring for reptiles. Targeted monitoring of threatened and other reptile species of conservation or cultural concern may also be warranted.

Ecological Niche Differentiation and Response to Climate Change of the African Endemic Family Myrothamnaceae.

Studying the ecological niches of species and their responses to climate change can provide better conservation strategies for these species. Myrothamnaceae is endemic to Africa, comprising only two species that belong to Myrothamnus (M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus). These closely related species exhibit allopatric distributions, positioning them as ideal materials for studying the species ecological adaptation. This study explores the ecological niche differentiation between M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus and their response capabilities to future climate change. The results indicate that M. flabellifolius and M. moschatus have undergone niche differentiation. The main drivers of niche differences are the minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6) for M. flabellifolius, precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), and precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19) for M. moschatus. M. flabellifolius demonstrated a stronger adaptation to environments characterized by lower precipitation, relatively lower temperatures, and greater annual temperature variations compared to M. moschatus. Under future climate scenarios (SSP5-8.5, 2081-2100 years), the results show that approximately 85% of the total suitable habitat for M. flabellifolius will be lost, with an 85% reduction in high-suitability areas and almost complete loss of the original mid-low suitability areas. Concurrently, about 29% of the total suitable habitat for M. moschatus will be lost, with a 34% reduction in high suitability areas and roughly 60% of the original mid-low suitability areas becoming unsuitable. This suggests that M. flabellifolius will face greater threats under future climate change. This study contributes novel insight into niche differentiation in Myrothamnaceae and provides useful information for the conservation of this distinctive African lineage.

Assessing the impact of climate change on landslides near Vejle, Denmark, using public data

Abstract. The possibility of increased landslide activity as a result of climate change has often been suggested, but few studies quantify this connection. Here, we present and utilize a workflow for the first time solely using publicly available data to assess the impact of future changes in landslide dynamic conditioning factors on landslide movement. In our case we apply the workflow to three slow-moving coastal landslides near Vejle, presenting the first study of its kind on Danish landslides. We examine modelled water table depth (WTD) as a dynamic conditioning factor using the DK-HIP model (Danish Hydrological Information and Prognosis system) that simulates historic and future WTD. The data show a clear correlation with landslide movement as recorded by the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series for the period from 2015 to 2019. Movement of up to 84 mm yr−1 occurs during wet winter months when normalized WTD exceeds +0.5 m. During dry winters, no, or very little, seasonal landslide movement is observed. The DK-HIP model predicts an increase of up to 0.7 m in WTD at the study area by 2100 CE under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenario (95 % confidence), which exceeds the levels this area has experienced in recent decades (mean increase of 0.2 m with a standard deviation of 0.25 m). This is likely to result in increased landslide activity and acceleration of movement. In a previous episode of increased landslide activity linked to extreme precipitation in the early 1980s, one of the examined landslides accelerated, causing damage to infrastructure and buildings. Our study clearly shows that these landslides are sensitive to climate change and highlights the potential of utilizing high-quality, publicly available data to address these complex scientific questions. The quality and quantity of such data are ever increasing, and so is the potential of this kind of approach.

Future projections of temperature-related indices in Prince Edward Island using ensemble average of three CMIP6 models

Prince Edward Island (PEI) is an agricultural province heavily relying on rainfed agriculture. The island has already experienced significant impacts from climate change. Accurate projections of PEI temperature extreme indices are required to mitigate and adapt to the changing climate conditions. This study aims to develop ensemble projections using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) global circulation models (GCMs) to analyze temperature extremes on PEI. In this study, the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset was chosen for stepwise cluster analysis (SCA) due to its high accuracy. Three CMIP6 (NorESM2-MM, MPI-ESM1.2-HR, and CanESM5) GCMs, along with their ensemble average, were utilized in the SCA model to project future changes in daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and minimum temperature (Tmin) at four meteorological stations on PEI (East Point, Charlottetown, Summerside, and North Cape) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5). These GCMs were selected based on their low, medium, and high Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. The bias-corrected results for the future period of Tmax and Tmin showed that the GCM-specific changes in the ECS also impact the regional scale. Additionally, several temperature extreme indices, including the daily temperature range (DTR), summer days (SU), growing degree days (GDD), growing season length (GSL), ice days (ID), and frost days (FD), were analyzed for two future periods: FP1(202–2050) and FP2 (2051–2075). The results indicate that DTR, SU, GDD, and GSL are expected to increase, while ID and FD are projected to decrease during FP1 and FP2 under both scenarios. The future projected mean monthly changes in Tmax, Tmin, and the selected temperature extreme indices highlight warmer future periods and an increase in agriculture-related indices such as GDD and GSL. Specifically, July, August, and September are expected to experience even higher temperatures in the future. As the climate becomes warmer, cold extreme events are projected to be shorter in duration but more intense in terms of their impact. The largest increments/decrements for Tmax, Tmin, and their relevant indices were observed during FP2 under SSP5-8.5. The outcomes of this study provide valuable insights for agricultural development, water resource management, and the formulation of effective mitigation strategies to address the impacts of climate change on PEI.

Are physiological and ecosystem-level tipping points caused by ocean acidification? A critical evaluation

Abstract. Ocean acidification (OA) is predicted to cause profound shifts in many marine ecosystems by impairing the ability of calcareous taxa to calcify and grow and by influencing the physiology of many others. In both calcifying and non-calcifying taxa, ocean acidification could further impair the ability of marine life to regulate internal pH and thus metabolic function and/or behaviour. Identifying tipping points at which these effects will occur for different taxa due to the direct impacts of ocean acidification on organism physiology is difficult because they have not adequately been determined for most taxa nor for ecosystems at higher levels. This is due to the presence of both resistant and sensitive species within most taxa. However, calcifying taxa such as coralline algae, corals, molluscs, and sea urchins appear to be most sensitive to ocean acidification. Conversely, non-calcareous seaweeds, seagrasses, diatoms, cephalopods, and fish tend to be more resistant or even benefit from the direct effects of ocean acidification, though the effects of ocean acidification are more subtle for these taxa. While physiological tipping points of the effects of ocean acidification either do not exist or are not well defined, their direct effects on organism physiology will have flow-on indirect effects. These indirect effects will cause ecological tipping points in the future through changes in competition, herbivory, and predation. Evidence for indirect effects and ecological change is mostly taken from benthic ecosystems in warm temperate–tropical locations in situ that have elevated CO2. Species abundances at these locations indicate a shift away from calcifying taxa and towards non-calcareous taxa at high-CO2 concentrations. For example, lower abundance of corals and coralline algae and higher covers of non-calcareous macroalgae, often turfing species, are often found at elevated CO2. However, there are some locations where only minor changes or no detectable changes occur. Where ecological tipping points do occur, it is usually at locations with naturally elevated mean pCO2 concentrations of 500 µatm or more, which also corresponds to just under that concentration where the direct physiological impacts of ocean acidification are detectable in the most sensitive taxa in laboratory research (coralline algae and corals). Collectively, the available data support the concern that ocean acidification will most likely cause ecological change in the near future in most benthic marine ecosystems, with tipping points in some ecosystems as low as 500 µatm pCO2. However, further research is required to more adequately quantify and model the extent of these impacts in order to accurately project future marine ecosystem tipping points under ocean acidification.

Ice Thickness Measurement and Volume Modeling of Muztagh Ata Glacier No.16, Eastern Pamir

As a heavily glaciated region, the Eastern Pamir plays a crucial role in regional water supply. However, considerable ambiguity surrounds the distribution of glacier ice thickness and the details of ice volume. Accurate data at the local scale are largely insufficient. In this study, ground-penetrating radar (GPR) was applied to assess the ice thickness at Muztagh Glacier No.16 (MG16) in Muztagh Ata, Eastern Pamir, for the first time, detailing findings from four distinct profiles, bridging the gap in regional measurements. We utilized a total of five different methods based on basic shear stress, surface velocity, and mass conservation, aimed at accurately delineating the ice volume and distribution for MG16. Verification was conducted using measured data, and an aggregated model outcome provided a unified view of ice distribution. The different models showed good agreement with the measurements, but there were differences in the unmeasured areas. The composite findings indicated the maximum ice thickness of MG16 stands at 115.87 ± 4.55 m, with an ice volume calculated at 0.27 ± 0.04 km3. This result is relatively low compared to the findings of other studies, which lies in the fact that the GPR measurements somewhat constrain the model. However, the model parameters remain the primary source of uncertainty. The results from this study can be used to enhance water resource assessments for future glacier change models.

How suitable are current approaches to simulate flood risk under future urbanization trends?

Abstract Flood risk in urban areas will increase massively under future urbanization and climate change. Urban flood risk models have been increasingly applied to assess impacts of urbanization on flood risk. For this purpose, different methodological approaches have been developed in order to reflect the complexity and dynamics of urban growth. To assess the state-of-the art in the application of flood risk models under urbanization scenarios, we conducted a structured literature review and systematically analyzed 93 publications with 141 case studies. Our review shows that hydrological and hydrodynamic flood models are the most commonly used approaches to project flood risk. Future urbanization is mostly considered as urban sprawl through the adjustment of land use maps and roughness parameters. A low number of approaches additionally consider transitions of urban structures and densification processes in their urbanization scenarios. High-resolution physically based flood models are constantly developed and already well suited for describing quantifiable processes in data-rich contexts. In regions with data paucity, however, we argue that a reduction of the level of detail in flood models accompanied by a higher resolved representation of urbanization patterns should be explored to improve the quality of flood risk projections under future urbanization trends. For this purpose, we also call for the development of integrative model structures such as causal network models that have greater explanatory power and enable the processing of qualitative data.

Brown algae (Phaeophyceae) stressors and illnesses: a review for a sustainable aquaculture under climate change

Brown algae (Phaeophyceae) dominate intertidal and shallow subtidal areas globally, where larger species form extensive underwater forests. These structurally complex and highly productive habitats enhance local biodiversity and support food webs in coastal areas through secondary production, thereby shaping local oceanography and ecology. Macroalgal aquaculture is an important and growing sector, where approximately 40% of all cultivated algae belong to Phaeophyceae. However, both cultured and natural brown algae have been under increasing pressure due to climate-driven factors, such as ocean warming, eutrophication, and herbivore outbreaks. We conducted a comprehensive literature review on abiotic (temperature, light intensity, and UV radiation, nutrients, water motion, salinity, and substrata and sediment) and biotic (bacteria, viruses, fungi, eukaryotic endophytes and endoparasites, epiphytes, and grazers) stressors and illnesses in marine brown macroalgae, as well as brown algae defense mechanisms, and discuss how these parameters may affect the production of a sustainable crop for the aquaculture industry under future climate change scenarios.