In many forest stands, persistence of mature ash (Fraxinus spp.) and the ability of regenerating ash to reach maturity is likely to influence future forest composition and ecosystem structure. Seedlings and saplings are often too small to be infested by the initial wave of invasive emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, and low release numbers and a lagged response of introduced biological control agents in outbreak EAB populations make quick protection of mature trees unpredictable but may provide protection for the next generation of ash. This study reports current composition and status of historically ash-dominated forest stands in eastern and western New York a decade after first EAB detection and nine years after release of parasitoid wasps for biological control. Monitored trees exhibited an increasingly binary status over the study period with the death of almost all trees that initially showed signs of decline, leaving only healthy individuals with full canopies alive. Near complete mortality of mature trees was observed in eastern New York, whereas a substantial number of mature trees persisted in western New York. There was little change in numbers of ash seedlings (<2.5 cm DBH) or saplings (≥2.5 cm DBH and < 10 cm DBH) between 2014 and 2021 in either region; however, density of the tallest seedlings (>1 m in height) increased significantly in eastern New York. Changes in overstory forest composition were mostly explained by loss of mature ash. These results provide hope for regenerating ash to grow into existing canopy gaps with the protection provided by continued presence of biological control agents.
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