Changes In Foreign Trade Research Articles

Shock robustness of single-industry regions: Assessment and governance

The Russian economy is operating under severe strains and limitations in foreign trade. The unevenness of economic space, regions’ openness, specialization and industrial efficiency cause differences in both economic growth and the state administration system. The article pioneers and tests a theoretical-methodological approach to assessing shock robustness of single-industry regions in the context of a harsh foreign economic environment and justifies approaches to adjusting regional development policy of the state. In the paper, shock robustness of a region’s economy is viewed as the ability to recover, continue a long-term development trend, and keep the potential for adaptation and structural changes. The research methodology consists of regional economics and management theories, and the theory of shocks. The research methods include regression analysis and time series analysis (the Hurst exponent, the Hodrick–Prescott filter). The empirical base is open data for single-industry regions. The study reveals that single-industry regions differ in shock robustness; there are regions with high susceptibility to foreign trade changes and industrial production volatility (with high foreign trade intensity – Sverdlovsk, Vologda, Chelyabinsk oblasts and Krasnoyarsk Krai) and regions with limited structural adaptation reserves (with low foreign trade intensity – Lipetsk and Murmansk oblasts) that require the adoption of problem-oriented managerial decisions. We systematize strategic avenues for single-industry regions vulnerable to external shocks, namely enhancing diversification and improving the sectoral structure of the economy and exports. The study adds to the understanding of industrial regions’ problem areas and government support measures facilitating their adaptation to instability.

Российско-китайская торговля сельскохозяйственной продукцией: анализ сравнительных преимуществ

Agricultural trade between Russia and China has been growing at an unprecedented pace in recent years. The recently announced agreement on the supply of grain from Russia to China within the New Land Grain Corridor lays a solid foundation for long-term cooperation between the two countries in the agricultural sector. However, the persistent trade imbalances do not allow Russian and Chinese agricultural enterprises to unlock their com-petitive advantages and radically increase mutual trade turnover. The paper calculates the indicators of con-centration, diversification, and structural changes in foreign trade, as well as the Revealed Comparative Ad-vantages index for 29 categories of food and agricultural products traded between Russia and China. Based the 2000–2022 data, commodity items are identified where the comparative disadvantages of one country can be compensated by the comparative advantages of another, in particular, grains and oilseeds, fish and crusta-ceans, and processed vegetables and fruits. The findings of the study can be taken into account by the gov-ernment bodies and businesses of both countries when developing trade and economic cooperation programs.

POLISH FOREIGN TRADE OF AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUCTS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

In the research on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economic situation in agriculture, the demand and supply channels are distinguished. They indicate how restrictions on economic activity translate into the volume and structure of production and the demand for agricultural products. The aim of the research was to identify and assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Polish agriculture through the transmission channel of foreign trade. The research period covered the years of 2017-2022. The primary research tool used was time series indicator analysis. During the pandemic, changes in foreign trade were limited only to short-term disruptions, which intensified in the first wave of COVID-19 (2020, second quarter). Trade in agri-food products turned out to be more resistant to shocks caused by the pandemic compared to trade in non-agricultural sectors. Therefore, disruptions on foreign markets did not significantly affect the production and economic situation of Polish agriculture. In the second quarter of 2020, the value of exports of agri-food goods decreased by 2.8% compared to the previous quarter. As it comes to other groups of goods, export values were lower by 7.2-40.1%. At the same time, the value of imports of agri-food goods was lower by 6.1% compared to the previous quarter. Imports of other goods collapsed much more severely as decrease in the value of imported goods ranged from 8.4 to 47.4%.

Economic growth, trade, and greenhouse gas emissions in the european union - investigating pollution leakage

Methods. This research employs econometric modeling and panel data analysis to investigate the intricate relationship between economic growth, environmental policies, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the European Union (EU). Panel data from 27 EU countries during the period from 2008 to 2021 is used to assess the impact of various factors on GHG emissions, including per capita GDP, primary energy consumption, renewable energy share, technological development, and extra-EU trade. Results. The study reveals that there is a positive correlation between GDP per capita and emissions, suggesting that the EU has not yet reached full decoupling of GDP growth and growth in GHG emissions. Increased primary energy consumption is associated with higher emissions, while a greater proportion of renewable energy sources is linked to reduced emissions. Technological advancements are found to mitigate GHG emissions. Importantly, the research uncovers a positive relationship between extra-EU trade and emissions, indicating the pollution leakage through trade. Novelty. This study contributes to the literature by offering a comprehensive examination of the dynamics between economic growth, changes in energy consumption, technological advancement, trade patterns, and GHG emissions within the EU. A more specific international trade variable is introduced into the model – the trade balance of EU countries with the outside EU countries. It explores the concept of pollution leakage, shedding light on how changes in foreign trade may impact emissions levels. Practical Value. The findings have significant policy implications, highlighting the need for a holistic approach to environmental policymaking within the EU. The study emphasizes that while progress has been made in adopting cleaner technologies and supporting renewable energy, challenges remain, including the potential for pollution leakage through international trade. This insight underscores the importance of globally impactful environmental policies and international cooperation to address GHG emissions effectively.

The Reality of Sustainable Development in the Developing Countries and its Impact on Foreign Trade for the Period 1990-2020

Sustainable development means development that seeks to meet the needs of current generations without compromising the capabilities of future generations. As for foreign trade, it is one of the most important economic activities that cause increased production and raise the growth rates of national income. Usually, foreign trade is affected by sustainable development variables, until it became necessary Developing countries should adopt the principles of this type of development to meet their requirements, build and develop their societies and change the reality in which they are. The importance of the research appears from the importance of sustainable development for its role in increasing the values of foreign trade and making its economic activities continue to progress continuously over time. So the research aims to study the impact of sustainable development variables on foreign trade for a sample of developing countries that included (Egypt, Tunisia, and Thailand). Based on the hypothesis that the variables of sustainable development contribute to different effects in foreign trade. In order to prove the hypothesis of the research, it was relied on time series data for the study variables during the period 1990-2020 using the statistical program EViews-10, and the ordinary least squares method as it reflects the changes in foreign trade of each country. This study, a number of conclusions were reached, the most important of which was the contribution of sustainable development variables to achieving quantitative, qualitative and positive developments in foreign trade, being a comprehensive and complex process with economic and social dimensions directed towards bringing about structural changes in the field of international exchange. By adopting development, policies that stimulate production, as this plays a very important role in increasing the values of foreign trade for countries the study sample.

A Framework for the Assessment of Fiscal Consequences of Global Trade Wars

The article is devoted to topical issues of assessing the consequences of trade wars for the fiscal space of third countries. The main preconditions and causes of the trade conflict between the United States and China were studied. The main models for assessing the consequences of global trade wars were analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the global integrated monetary, fiscal and global trade models, which are based on the principles of general economic equilibrium and are widely used to assess the economic consequences of global challenges, including trade wars. It was found that the global integrated monetary and fiscal model, other macroeconomic models were aimed at determining the economic consequences and effects and cannot be directly used to assess fiscal risks and likely budget losses due to global trade wars. The aim of the article is to deepen the principles of assessing the fiscal consequences of trade wars in the conditions of uncertainty in foreign economic policy and directions of restructuring of the world value chains. The economic consequences of the conflict and the channels of their spread to third countries were identified taking into account the deepening globalization processes. The direct and indirect dependence of exports and imports, GDP, investments, factor productivity level and tax revenues on changes in foreign trade, tariff increases, increasing uncertainty in world trade in the short, medium and long term is highlighted. The estimates obtained by different models are summarized. The fiscal consequences of the trade conflict between the United States and China for Ukraine as a country with a small, open and predominantly commodity economy were quantified. The inclusion in fiscal risks of probable losses of foreign trade from global trade wars, arising due to various reasons, which may decrease the tax revenues or increase the expenditures on the public support of enterprises, is justified. Changes in the methodology for assessment of fiscal risks are proposed, enabling to estimate the cost impact of fiscal risks on the public budget of Ukraine. Proposals for improvements in the statistical monitoring of business activity of enterprises, to form an appropriate information base for monitoring foreign economic activities, assessing fiscal risks and making decisions to ensure the sustainability of public finance and public support for enterprises in the conditions of global trade wars, are substantiated.

The economy of Russian Baltic regions: development level and dynamics, structure and international trade partners

The article explores the challenges encountered during the formation of the Baltic macro-region comprising Russia and eight EU countries (Germany, Poland, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia) in the context of the ongoing geopolitical and geo-economic changes. The article aims to assess the dynamics, level, structure and pace of economic development of three Russian regions located on the Baltic Sea (St. Petersburg, Leningrad and Kaliningrad regions) and analyse the intensity of their trade relations with countries of the macro-region. Russian Baltic regions have higher development rates compared to the national average. However, they experience difficulties in their economic development resulting from negative external factors. The article describes possible ways of overcoming these difficulties by improving the sectoral structure of the economy and diversifying international ties. In this context, the development of inter-regional cooperation and the formation of a spatially distributed territorial socio-economic system, including the three Russian Baltic regions, will be particularly beneficial. The period covered by the article is 1996—2021, with a special focus on 2014—2021. The study is based on the economic and statistical analysis of official data of Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service on the sectoral structure and dynamics of the gross regional product (GRP), volume and changes in foreign trade, and its commodity and geographical structure.

Yugoslav-Italian foreign trade relations 1919-1939 and the Yugoslav industry: The import of textile products from Italy

Yugoslav-Italian relations between two world wars, besides the diplomatic-political, also had a very significant economic aspect. Italy was one of the most important foreign trade partners of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia, and this paper will explore the trade exchange between the two countries, especially the import of materials necessary for the textile industry, which substantially contributed to the positive balance of trade. Beside a quantitative analysis of statistical data regarding foreign trade, the paper also looks at the impact of political and economic events on the trade relations between the two countries, as well as the relation between the industrialization of Yugoslavia and changes in foreign trade.

Effective multinational trade forecasting using LSTM recurrent neural network

Changes in foreign trade (export and import) constitute a crucial topic in international economics, international business management, and economic development. Numerous academics and industry leaders have sought effective means of forecasting foreign trade. However, with the uncertain nature of trade trends, obtaining accurate forecasts is a challenge. To analyze ten countries’ trade data, this study developed an effective foreign trade forecasting method that relies on a neural network with long short-term memory (LSTM); the results validated the effectiveness of the proposed method. This study is based on the economic theory that the two-way causal relationships present in trade data can improve trade forecasting. A multivariate LSTM-based method is proposed and exploited to extract temporal changes from trade data and provide effective trade forecasting. A comparison was conducted to understand the performance of the proposed method against time-series and economic structural models. The empirical results indicate that the method can appropriately model temporal information regarding uncertainty trends in foreign trade data. The method achieved almost perfect forecasting performance for data previously difficult to predict; in most cases, it had smaller values of root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than did time-series models and economic structural models. On the export forecast, RMSE improved by 17.048% and MAPE by 1.463%, and for imports, RMSE improved by 40.939% and MAPE by 1.806%. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of the theoretical synthesis and provides a theoretical basis for interdisciplinary research in foreign trade forecasting.

Handel zagraniczny produktami mięsnymi Polski z Japonią w latach 2004-2019

Głównym celem artykułu jest charakterystyka zmian w handlu zagranicznym produktami mięsnymi Polski z Japonią w latach 2004-2019. Zastosowano następujące metody: analiza porównawcza w czasie eksportu produktów mięsnych oraz wchodzących w jej skład głównych grup produktowych, analiza struktury towarowej tego eksportu. Otrzymane wyniki mogą być wykorzystane przez różnych uczestników łańcucha dostaw (np. przetwórców czy handel), mogą stanowić wsparcie nie tylko dla polityki gospodarczej państwa w zakresie kształtowania relacji handlowych, ale także dla przedsiębiorstw eksportujących, które są zainteresowane określeniem swojej pozycji konkurencyjnej na rynku (np. mogą oszacować swój udział w eksporcie do Japonii określonych grup asortymentowych) czy rozważyć ewentualne uplasowanie swoich produktów na tym rynku. W badaniach wykorzystano dane OECD, ITC Trade Map i niepublikowane dane roczne dotyczące eksportu i importu Ministerstwa Finansów z lat 2004-2019.

التغيرات البنيوية في الاقتصاد العراقي

Any country that is trying to achieve basic economic goals in the forefront of growth and stability and full employment. Economic growth must include quantitative, qualitative and sustained changes in macroeconomic structure over several decades. Because Iraq has enormous human and natural resources, foremost of which is oil, the Iraqi economy has not undergone significant qualitative and quantitative changes in favor of economic growth as a strategic objective, but in a single economy that relies heavily on oil resources.In order to examine the changes in the structure of the Iraqi economy, these changes in the structure of the population were examined from a biological and a literal point of view. Structural changes were also examined in the sectoral distribution of the GDP, the sectoral distribution of the labor force and the structural changes in foreign trade. Changes in population structure were not positive and did not contribute to the desired economic growth. The sectoral distribution of GDP and the sectoral distribution of the labor force was also not positive for achieving major economic objectives. The analysis of changes in the structure of foreign trade, resource use and the structure of aggregate demand in the Iraqi economy shows a decline in the contribution of capital formation in GDP, which is the main driver of economic growth against the growth of the share of total consumption and private sector exports excluding the oil sector.The study concluded that the imbalance in the structure of the Iraqi economy has continued as a result of a number of problems that began in the 1980s as a result of the war with Iran and the ensuing economic siege throughout the 1990s, as well as the instability of the security and political situation since 2003.

The nature of institutional changes in foreign trade as a result of the digitalization during the international economic integration

Subject. The article focuses on the creation of a favorable institutional environment for the Russian companies to enter foreign markets, being prepared to digitalization processes. Objectives. I determine the nature of institutional changes that take place during the active and widespread integration of ICT. The article also traces trends in foreign trade relations between countries during the digitalization and the impact of innovation during the digital transformation of international relations. The article evaluates what part network technologies play in the economic, social and political life during the globalization. Methods. The study relies upon elements of the innovative methodology for the post-industrial analysis through the cross-disciplinary synthesis, which implies overcoming the single aspect focus, dichotomy and dogmatism of many concepts of the orthodox new institutionalism. Results. Based on digital technologies, institutional mechanisms of trade agreement were found to be a complex set of related constituents. Institutions for the regulation and self-regulation of the digital economy will comprise two big subsystems in the mid-term, i.e. smart institutions (rules and models of conduct resulting from self-performing smart contracts) and hybrid institutions, which combine aspects of traditional, written law and algorithmic one, which is based on computer codes and software. The digital institutional environment will unavoidably engender smart intermediaries, which have already featured legal attorneys for smart contracts, technical experts on digital technologies, auditors and managers of digital business processes. Conclusions and Relevance. New technologies reshape the institutional environment of the international cooperation on foreign trade, which contributes to the development of innovation so that countries could gain some competitive advantages. Drawing upon the cross-country cooperation within the same institutional space, national and/or regional innovative ecosystems become very important.

Structural Changes in Foreign Trade as a Factor of Competitiveness of the Republic of Serbia

Abstract The paper aims to analyse structural changes in foreign trade based on systematic statistical data as a factor of competitiveness of the Republic of Serbia. First, contemporary tendencies in international trade are analysed, where the value and volume of world trade are monitored, as well as key changes in the structure of world exports and imports in the observed period. By assessing the position of the Republic of Serbia in international trade, it is necessary to consider the extent to which the foreign trade of the Republic of Serbia adapts to the structural changes in world trade. Then, the structure of the merchandise exchange of the Republic of Serbia according to the purpose of the product is examined as well as the structure of the merchandise exchange according to sectors and commodity groups. Later in the paper, the achieved development of the industry is questioned, where the focus of the analysis is put on the quality of exports and the international competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, which in the Republic of Serbia produces most of the exchangeable goods. The last part of the paper deals with the analysis of the technological structure and factor intensity of Serbian goods exports. In this way, the research question is answered that there is a need for structural changes in production and foreign trade in the Republic of Serbia in order to improve its competitiveness.

Production of milk and dairy products in Ukraine: trends and prospects

The dairy industry is one of the important components of the food industry in Ukraine. Significant dynamic and structural changes in the procurement, processing and foreign trade of milk and dairy products have been observed in recent years. Further prospects for the development of the dairy industry are formed under the influence of a decrease in agricultural harvesting of milk, a decrease in the volume of deep processing of milk (production of butter and cheese), changes in foreign trade. It is important to study the current state of the dairy industry and identify trends in its further development. The tendencies of milk procurement by agricultural enterprises and households of Ukraine are investigated. Over the years milk production in agriculture has been dynamically diminishing, with a shift to entrepreneurial forms of dairy farming. It has been noted that the decrease in milk production volume in recent years has influenced the dynamics of industrial production of dairy products. In particular, in recent years the production of cheese and butter has decreased significantly, and milk production has been characterized by unstable trends. The general characteristics of Ukraine's foreign trade in milk and dairy products are presented. In recent years, the value of the export-to-import ratio has been positive for most dairy products. Over the last year (2018), exports of butter, condensed milk and cream, condensed milk and cream and whey prevailed in Ukraine. At the same time, they imported more cheese and butter, fermented or fermented milk and cream. The main part of the exported dairy products was export of butter and milk and cream condensed, imported mainly cheese. It is established that the main problem of the dairy industry today is the low level of milk production. Therefore, financial and investment processes should be stimulated to build farms and increase livestock production at enterprises to offset losses from reduced milk production by households. At the same time, it is necessary to encourage deep processing of milk, in particular the production of butter (main export product) and cheese (to avoid import dependence).

Linear Analysis of the Correlation Between Industrial Development and Foreign Trade Development in Guangdong Province—Based on Time Series Data from 2005 to 2018

As a developed province along the eastern coast of China, Guangdong Province has a close relationship between industrial development and foreign trade. Based on the 2005-2018 time series data, the relevant principles and methods such as least squares method and elasticity theory were used to conduct an empirical analysis of the correlation between Guangdong’s industrial development and foreign trade. The research found that compared with the tertiary industry, the secondary industry is more closely related to foreign trade. However, the tertiary industry is more sensitive to changes in foreign trade. Based on the quantitative measurement of the correlation between industrial development and foreign trade, a number of policy recommendations were proposed.

Foreign Trade of Russia and Irkutsk Region: General Trends and Regional Specifics

At the present stage of economic development, foreign trade is of great importance for any country both in terms of expanding markets and obtaining additional profits, and in terms of increasing influence on the world market. Russia's trade turnover consists of exports and imports of different regions located in various natural and climatic zones. Analysis of the commodity and geographical structure of exports and imports of Russia and the Irkutsk region indicates the presence of certain regional characteristics. The article discusses the dynamics of changes in foreign trade at the level of the country as a whole and compares it with similar indicators of the Irkutsk region, identifies the causes of discrepancy or difference in shares of certain commodities in export and import. The positive and negative trends observed in the commodity structure in recent years are determined and the conclusion is made about the need and possible promising options for changing the commodity and geographical structure of foreign trade at the regional level and throughout the country.

Influencing of International Accounting Reporting Standards on Quality of Financial Reports

IASB states that the main objective of financial reporting is to provide information that is useful to investors, creditors and others in making investment, credit and similar resource allocation decisions. This study sought to find out if the adoption of IFRS had affected the financial reporting quality of listed firms in Kenya. Sample selection consisted of all companies listed in the Nairobi Stock Exchange (NSE) between 1994 and 2003 excluding banking and insurance companies. The study shows that the value relevance of reported earnings was incrementally higher for listed companies during the post-IFRS convergence period than in the pre-IFRS convergence period. Keywords: IFRS, Kenya, Nairobi Securities Exchange. In a sample of 102 non-European Union countries, we study variations in the decision to adopt International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). There is evidence that more powerful countries are less likely to adopt IFRS, consistent with more powerful countries being less willing to surrender standard-setting authority to an international body. There is also evidence that the likelihood of IFRS adoption at first increases and then decreases in the quality of countries’ domestic governance institutions, consistent with IFRS being adopted when governments are capable of timely decision making and when the opportunity and switching cost of domestic standards are relatively low. We do not find evidence that levels of and expected changes in foreign trade and investment flows in a country affect its adoption decision: thus, we cannot confirm that IFRS lowers information costs in more globalized economies. Consistent with the presence of network effects in IFRS adoption, we find that a country is more likely to adopt IFRS if its trade partners or countries within in its geographical region are IFRS adopters.

Efficiency of institutional security of integration processes in foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises of Ukraine

Purpose. The aim of this article is to study the preconditions that contributed to changes in the institutional support of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises, to identify trends in foreign trade in agricultural products and to assess the effectiveness of such changes for direct producers of agricultural products. Methodology of research. The abstract and logical method and the method of generalization were used in the research, which allowed to determine the prerequisites for the formation of competitive advantages of domestic agricultural products in the world market, to establish the factors of influence on the change in the institutional support of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises. As a result of using the economic and statistical method, a research was made of the trends in the geographical diversification of exports of agricultural products and their processed products under the influence of the institutional environment of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises. Findings. The conditions for the development of foreign economic activity of agricultural enterprises are identified, changes in foreign trade in agricultural products and in the flow of foreign direct investment as a result of Ukraine’s economic integration into the world community, in particular the signing of WTO accession agreements and associations with EU countries, are highlighted. As a result of improving methodological approaches to determining the effectiveness of foreign economic activity in the agricultural sector as a result of changes in the institutional environment, proportional changes were established between the indicators of export and intra-economic activity of agricultural enterprises. The positive impact of creating a free trade zone with the EU countries is substantiated, which will encourage domestic agricultural enterprises to adhere to EU standards for the safety and hygiene of agricultural products, especially dairy and meat products. Originality. Methodological approaches to the determination of indicators of the effectiveness of foreign economic activity in the agricultural sector as a result of changes in the institutional environment have been improved, which, unlike the existing ones, comprehensively take into account the results of domestic and export activities of agricultural enterprises. Practical value. The results of the study can be used in the marketing activities of agricultural enterprises in order to build export strategies and search for their own niche in the world market. Key words: institutional support; institutions; foreign economic activity; agricultural enterprises; export; import; price; agricultural products; world market; foreign direct investment.

Modeling of Convergence of the Economic System of Ukraine with G20 Countries Based on the Analysis of Structural Changes in Ukrainian Foreign Trade

In the article various theories of convergence of economic systems were considered. Mathematical modeling of the convergence of economic systems was carried out taking into account structural changes in foreign trade. An assessment of the degree of convergence of the economic system of Ukraine was made. The indicators of G20 countries were chosen as the reference economic system for assessing the degree of convergence. On the basis of the calculations of the correlation coefficients and the construction of regression models, it is proved that the valuation assumptions regarding the inclusion of the pieces of information in the model are feasible. A complex mathematical model for assessing the convergence of the developing economic system of Ukraine with the G20 economic systems is proposed. Conclusions about the short-term and long-term prospects for the development of Ukraine’s GDP were made, the measures necessary for the positive development of GDP in each of the prospects were proposed.

Peculiarities of international economic relations of Ukraine and the EU

The peculiarities of international economic relations between Ukraine and the EU have been analyzed. Changes in foreign trade after the signing of the Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU have been investigated, problems in trade between Ukraine and the EU have been identified, ways to overcome existing imbalances in trade in goods between Ukraine and the EU have been elaborated. The theoretical and methodological basis of the research are the fundamental positions of modern economic theory, scientific works of scientists, normative and legislative acts of Ukraine on foreign economic activity. In the course of the research, the following methods were used: economic and statistical (in the study of the state of international economic relations between Ukraine and the EU); graphic (for visual presentation of research results); analytical and structural-logical (in determining the directions of intensification of export of domestic enterprises, optimization of its structure within the framework of the current Association Agreement between Ukraine and the European Union). The paper uses a comprehensive approach to substantiate the prospects for Ukraine's integration into a single European market. The results of the study are aimed at solving the problem of overcoming the negative balance of international trade in goods with EU countries.