Extreme Weather Change Research Articles

The geopolitics of climate change: power transitions, conflict and the future of military activities

Climate change is emerging as one of the primary geopolitical challenges of the early twenty-first century, one that will likely involve military engagements and deployments in both traditional and non-traditional missions. Unlike mass casualty terrorism, climate change does not have a single galvanising event that can encourage collective mitigation efforts by both developed and developing states. International efforts to counter putative climate change causes have, thus far, been only marginally successful. Consequently, some of the more pernicious effects of climate change—extreme weather, heat waves, droughts and floods—will likely continue to manifest in the years and decades ahead. From a geopolitical perspective, climate change may influence the trajectory of rising or declining states in an increasingly multipolar world. It may also induce or exacerbate resource competition between states, particularly with regard to energy resources, water and food. Climate change may also exert a general weakening effect on lesser developed countries, thus necessitating increasingly intrusive and costly humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR) missions, some of which may be conducted by military agencies. Overall, these trends suggest that climate change will continue to emerge as a significant factor that shapes and defines future military missions and deployments.

Quantifying Vulnerability to Climate Change: Implications for Adaptation Assistance

This paper attempts a comprehensive accounting of climate change vulnerability for 233 states, ranging in size from China to Tokelau. Using the most recent evidence, it develops risk indicators for three critical problems: increasing weather-related disasters, sea-level rise, and loss of agricultural productivity. The paper embeds these indicators in a methodology for cost-effective allocation of adaptation assistance. The methodology can be applied easily and consistently to all 233 states and all three problems, or to any subset that may be of interest to particular donors. Institutional perspectives and priorities differ; the paper develops resource allocation formulas for three cases: (1) potential climate impacts alone, as measured by the three indicators; (2) case 1 adjusted for differential country vulnerability, which is affected by economic development and governance; and (3) case 2 adjusted for donor concerns related to project economics: intercountry differences in project unit costs and probabilities of project success. The paper is accompanied by an Excel database with complete data for all 233 countries. It provides two illustrative applications of the database and methodology: assistance for adaptation to sea level rise by the 20 island states that are both small and poor and general assistance to all low-income countries for adaptation to extreme weather changes, sea-level rise, and agricultural productivity loss.

Climate change and respiratory allergic diseases

There is a firm consensus that Earth’s climate has been changed and will be changed in further future due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change affects human health and respiratory allergic diseases, such as asthma and allergic rhinitis, in various ways. The increase in both the incidence of asthma and global surface temperature in the same period suggests that climate change is a plausible explanation for the asthma epidemic. Additionally, climate change could influence also the severity and acute exacerbation of asthma. Several mechanisms were suggested to explain the effects of climate change on respiratory allergic diseases: increased exposure to pollens and molds spores, aggravated air pollutions, direct effects of extreme weather and thunderstorm and changes in respiratory infections. However, data and evidences are lacking to answer what the net effects of climate on asthma and allergic rhinitis and its mechanisms are. Great efforts and active roles are required for the physicians in developing strategies to mitigate climate change and adaptation to its effects on respiratory allergic diseases.

Impacts of extreme weather and climate change on South African dragonflies

The absence of ice sheets for many millions of years, yet variable topography and changing climate, has generated considerable biodiversity in South Africa. There is no evidence to date that anthropogenic climate change has affected odonate populations in the region. One reason is that the highly varying weather and climate constitutes considerable background noise against which any effects of modern climate change must be measured. Evidence is accumulating that the Holocene interglacial and gradual warming has left some species with isolated populations in montane areas among a matrix of arid land. Many South African odonate species are remarkably vagile and elevationally tolerant, readily immigrating into and emigrating from pools during wet and dry phases respectively. Some species take this movement to greater extremes by moving the southern margins of their geographical range back and forth with varying climate. After floods, populations of riverine odonates can recover within a year, although where the riparian corridor has been stripped of its trees, the recovery is very slow. Various synergistic impacts, particularly from invasive alien woody plants, area severe impact on many riverine species, and reducing their ability to respond positively to changing environmental conditions. Large-scale removal of these woody aliens is greatly benefiting the odonates’ ability to survive in the short-term and to restore natural corridors for movement in the face of possible future climatic changes.

Changes of State: Slow‐Motion Trauma in the Gangetic Plains of India

AbstractIn recent years, the vicissitudes wrought by harsh weather patterns and natural disasters have resulted in hurricanes and earthquakes and had a catastrophic impact on people's lives. The Ganges River Corridor in northern India is a region that perennially undergoes extreme changes in weather and climate with the onslaught of the monsoon season. Anthony Acciavatti, in his Dynamic Atlas series of drawings, has measured the effects of rainfall and agrarian processes in relation to the fast‐paced modes of urbanisation in the area. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The Need for a Multi-Level Approach to Climate Change—An Australian Insurance Perspective

Insurance is all about risk management and risk mitigation. A significant component of this risk equation is an ability to manage the variability of weather events. Climate modelling has shown that it only takes small changes in the mean climate to generate large changes in extreme weather. This has profound implications for the insurance industry, because a less-predictable climate impacts the industry's capacity to accurately calculate and price products. The insurance industry's response to climate change will determine the shape of the industry for decades to come. However, insurance companies acting alone, or even collectively, will have only limited impact in achieving success over the long term. This paper outlines a multi-level approach required by the insurance industry to make a real and lasting difference, including engaging governments; assisting and educating communities to be more aware and resilient; incentivising customers through advocacy, product innovation and appropriate product offerings; and leading by example and providing employees with the education and tools to facilitate action both at work and at home.

Changes in weather extremes: Assessment of return values using high resolution climate simulations at convection-resolving scale

Global and regional climate models are currently employed on horizontal resolutions down to 10 km. State-of-the-art numerical weather predicition (NWP) models are already used at the kilometer-scale. At this resolution explicit calculation of convection becomes feasible and effects of small-scale topographic features and land use structures can be accounted for. It is assumed that consequently extremes like wind gusts, thunderstorms or heavy rain will be modeled more realistically. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the NWP model of the COSMO consortium. It has been employed in simulations at 1,3 km resolution over the region of Rhineland-Palatinate. Two time slices of 10 years (1960-69 and 2015-24) show changes in extremes for the IPCC A1B scenario. A peaks over threshold (POT) extreme value analysis gives information about changes in extremes of near-surface wind speed, screen level temperature and precipitation. Moving block bootstrapping is used for the assessment of the stability of the POT method. Regionalization of the extreme value analysis shows that mountaineous regions will experience the strongest change in daily minimum temperature extremes while in flat and lowland region daily maximum temperature extremes change most. The changes in wind speed tend around zero, in the mean as well as in the extremes. Our study shows that there is an added value through the better resolution of the meteorological variability.

Seasonal and interannual variability of cladoceran communities in two peri-alpine lakes: uncoupled response to the 2003 heat wave

Seasonal and interannual dynamics of cladoceran species were analyzed during the period 1995–2003 in two deep peri-alpine lakes morphologically different but subjected to similar regional climatic forcing. The seasonal succession of cladoceran species was characterized and the impact of extreme climatic events on the annual pattern of species succession was assessed. Using a multivariate method, we show that the cladoceran species display marked seasonality patterns that differed in the two lakes. The differences observed between the lakes were driven by their trophic state, the plankton species composition and the abundance of predators. We show that the sensitivity of the annual pattern of species succession to extreme weather changes, illustrated by the 2003 heat wave, differs markedly in these two lakes. In Lake Annecy, the annual pattern of cladoceran succession observed in 2003 is not different from the one usually observed. In contrast, in Lake Geneva, the annual pattern recorded in 2003 is unusual and characterized by the maintenance of herbivorous cladocera during summer. These findings underline the need to consider the morphology of lakes and trophic state in the assessment of ecological responses to global warming. Our results contribute to the debate about the predictability of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, and their extrapolation from one site to another.

The Coming of Age: A New AMS Journal on Weather, Climate, and Society

I can think of no better home for a new interdisciplinary journal dedicated to the interactions of weather, climate, and society than the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The AMS was founded on the principle of providing both science and services to society. We are fortunate to be part of an international scientific discipline that is central to the health and well-being of our nation and our neighbors across the globe. Where else could you find a scientific discipline front and center, 24 hours a day on radio, television, and the print media? Today’s society hasan insatiable appetite for information about weather and climate because it affects our economic prosperity, our health, and the quality of our lives. I am delighted that the AMS has recognized that this work is even more valuable when it encompasses the social as well as the meteorological sciences and by so doing, explicitly considers how society influences and is impacted by weatherandclimate. We can no longer ignore thewaysthat thesocialscienceswillbeneededtohelpusunderstandhow the physical, chemical, and biological aspects of weather and climate are related to major social and policy issues. Let’s examine just a few of the issues that Weather, Climate, and Society could address. Concern about climate variability and change is now part of the public consciousness and dialogue. This increasing awareness of the global environment, and humanity’s role in it, can be attributed to a number of factors. AMS members have contributed in large measure to the many reports that have informed the nation and the world about changes and variations in weather and climate. This includes the various assessments from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Academy ofSciences,andthe21SynthesisandAssessmentsreports of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, as well as the recent state of knowledge report about climate change impacts in the United States prepared by the U.S. Global Change Research Program. Our members have been on the ‘‘front lines’’ of responding to growing needs for information about these changes as they relate to all aspects of anthropogenic influences and societal resiliency, including responses to extreme weather events and planning for future climate variability and change. What else is needed? Much more insight is required to effectively useourknowledgeaboutvariability andchange in weather and climate. This includes new ways to manage, plan, and operate our institutions across all sectors of society, all regions, and on all space and time scales. Examples include 1) translating our science into actionable policy related to building standards for a changing climate; 2) ecosystem management that incorporates a constantly evolving climate into its management practices, while recognizing other environmental and social stresses; 3) a way of life that fosters resilience to changes in weather extremes,asitisnowclearthatwecannotblindlyrelyupon the past to be our guide to the future; and 4) a sustainable use of resources consistent with our ability to ensure that our planet continues to provide a hospitable climate. So it is not surprising to find a growing public demand for climate research and information across a broad spectrum of sectors and regions. Fishermen and fishery managers want to know the impacts of global warming and the effects of a more acidic ocean on their stocks; city planners want to know the possible range of future weather and climate extremes to inform the design of infrastructure for their growing populations; public health officials want to know the potential for a new climate regime that might be favorable for pathogens and agents of infectious diseases; emergency warning officials along the nations’ coastlineswanttoknowwhat to expect aboutextremeeventsandrisingsealevelsassociatedwith

Ensemble projection of 1–3°C warming in China

Studies on the influences of climate change on biogeochemical cycles and on the key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change suggest that annual surface temperature rise of 1°C, 2°C and 3°C above the present level would lead to changes in extreme weather and climate events, food production, fresh water resources, biodiversity, human mortality, etc. Here two sets of simulations as performed with seventeen atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), i.e. the model outputs from the 20th Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) and from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) emission scenarios B1, A1B and A2, are used to analyze spatial and temporal characteristics of the above values in China over the 21st century. The results indicate that the rate of warming varies from region to region. The above values are reached much later (earlier) when emission amount is lower (higher), and spread of the time when the lower (higher) value is exceeded is narrower (wider) among the three scenarios. As far as the spatial pattern is concerned, the above values are crossed much earlier in northern China and the Tibetan Plateau with respect to the Yangtze-Huaihe River Valley and South China.

Impact of future climate changes on high pollution levels

Changes in climate variability as well as changes in extreme weather and climate events in the 20th century, especially those that took place during the last two to three decades of the 20th century, have been discussed in many recent scientific publications. Attempts to project the results of such studies in the future have been made under different assumptions. In this paper, we have chosen one of the well-known scenarios predicting changes of the climate in the world during the last 30 years of the 21st century. This scenario is used, together with several general predictions related to the future climate, to produce three climatic scenarios. The derived climatic scenarios are used to calculate predictions for future pollution levels in Denmark and in Europe by applying the Unified Danish Eulerian Model (UNI-DEM), on a space domain containing the whole of Europe.

Abstract 1540: Weather/Temperature Change and Heart Disease

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Although recent studies have examined the effect of weather on acute coronary syndrome and heart failure, few have examined the influence of extreme weather and rapid temperature change on emergency department admissions for acute coronary syndrome and heart failure, METHODS: We reviewed presentations of acute coronary syndrome (n = 2381) and heart failure (n = 1802) for the years 2003 to 2006 at an urban Level I Trauma Center and Accredited Chest Pain Center, examining presentation frequency on the warmest and coldest days of their respective years. In addition, we examined the frequency of presentation on days where the absolute difference between the mean temperature of one day and the next differed by 5, 10, and 15 degrees Fahrenheit. For each of these sample sets, we analyzed the data by gender and age. RESULTS: Frequency of presentation did not significantly change on the hottest and coldest days of the year for acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.89 hot, p = 0.63 cold) or heart failure (p = 0.51 cold, p = 0.66 hot). No significant correlation was noted between gender and temperature extremes for acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.71 cold, p = 0.62 hot) or for heart failure (p = 0.83 cold, p = 0.59 hot). Age was not significantly correlated with temperature extremes for presentations of acute coronary syndrome (p = 0.72 cold, p = 0.63 hot) or heart failure (p = 0.95 cold, p = 0.99 hot). Changes in presentation frequency for either acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or heart failure (HF) at ΔT = 5°F were not significant (p = 0.70 ACS, p = 0.67 HF), nor were they significant at ΔT = 10°F (p = 0.97 ACS, p = 0.26 HF) or ΔT = 15°F (p = 0.17 ACS, p = 0.57 HF). CONCLUSIONS: In theses patients, no significant correlations were noted between extreme weather events, temperature change and the presentation of acute coronary syndrome. In addition, no significant correlations were found between temperature differentials of 5, 10, or 15 °F and a diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome or heart failure.

Extreme weather change and the dynamics of oviposition behavior in the pipevine swallowtail, Battus philenor

Prospects of global increases in extreme weather change provide incentive to examine how such change influences animal behavior, for example, behavior associated with resource use. In this study, we examined how oviposition behavior in a southern Arizona population of pipevine swallowtails (Battus philenor L.) responded to changes in their Aristolochia host resource and vegetative background caused by the North American monsoon system. Summer monsoon rains resulted in a flush of non-host vegetation and a more than doubling in rate of landings by host-searching females on non-host vegetation. Rates of discovery of the host species A. watsoni Woot. Standl. decreased by 50% after monsoon rains. Rains did not alter host density appreciably, but resulted in significant increases in host plant size and new growth, two indicators of host suitability for B. philenor larvae. After the rains, mean clutch size on individual host plants increased by a factor of 2.5; the mean proportion of host plants encountered on which a female laid eggs also increased significantly. Females were discriminating about the host plants on which they laid eggs after alightment; plants accepted for oviposition were larger, bore more new growth, and bore fewer larvae than rejected plants. Contrary to predictions from foraging theory, degree of discrimination did not change seasonally. Finally, the rate at which eggs were laid increased seasonally, suggesting that oviposition rates were limited more before monsoon rains by the relatively low quality of hosts than they were after the rains by the relatively low rate at which hosts were found. This latter result suggests that, while butterflies possess behavioral flexibility to respond to extreme weather change, such flexibility may have limits. In particular, expected increases in the severity and frequency of droughts may result in reduced oviposition rates, reductions that could have adverse demographic consequences.

The Impact of Climate Change on Gastrointestinal Diseases in Taiwan

P-493 Abstract: Climate change and extreme weather event impacted on disease occurrence. The extreme precipitation events would be one of the potential factors related to gastrointestinal illness. This study is to investigate the association with the extreme precipitation between the mortality and hospital care of gastrointestinal diseases. We collected the rainfall records from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau for three metropolitans - Taipei, Taichung and Kaohsiung (north to south) during 1980–2003. Regarding to the international code of disease, 9th edition, this study extracted the information of gastrointestinal diseases in ICD9 002–004, ICD9 009, ICD9 535, ICD9 555 and ICD9 558 separately for infectious gastrointestinal diseases and noninfectious gastritis. National Death Certificate Database from 1980 to 2003 constructed by Department of Health and Insurance Reimbursement Claims Database from 1996 to 2002 established by the National Health Insurance program were individually used to analyze the risk of mortality and hospital care in gastrointestinal diseases associated with the extreme precipitation event. The results showed the variation of rainfall amount in three metropolitans typically relied on season. In general, the most rainfall occurred in summer and less in winter, obviously in Taichung and Kaohsiung. The rainy days in Taichung was not many compared to other two metropolitans (Fig.1), however, the proportion of torrential rainfall in rainy days occurred more often than other two metropolitans (The definition of the torrential rainfall in this study is the accumulative amount of rainfall in one day is more than 100 mm) (Fig. 2). In contrast to the mortality of infectious gastrointestinal diseases is gently decreased in three metropolitans, the mortality of gastritis was mildly changed annually. By the stratum of age (0–14, 15–39, 40–64 and > 65 years), the mortality of infectious gastrointestinal diseases is decreased in recent years mainly contributed from the persons over sixty-five years old. Among these three metropolitans, the mortality and hospital care of gastrointestinal disease were obviously changed accompanied by extreme participation event (the amount of rainfall is higher than 95% accumulative rainfall level over the years) as shown in Fig. 3.FigureFigureFigureThese exploratory analyses show the locally climate change effects on the mortality and hospital care of gastrointestinal diseases, especially in extreme participation event. According to the findings, we should pay the notification in the disease occurrence related to extreme weather change.

The Millennium Project: the positive health implications of improved environmental sustainability

Ensuring environmental sustainability is essential to achieving all the Millennium Development Goals. Long-term solutions to problems of drinking-water shortages, hunger, poverty, gender inequality, emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, maternal and childhood health, extreme local weather and global climate changes, and conflicts over natural resources need systematic strategies to achieve environmental sustainability. For this reason, the UN Millennium Project Task Force on Environmental Sustainability has concluded that protection of the environment is an essential prerequisite and component of human health and wellbeing.

03/02579 Ecological effects of particulate matter: Grantz, D. A. et al. Environment International, 2003, 29, (2–3), 213–239

According to a recent report published by the United Nations in 2018, the increase in global temperature is possible to hit the 1.5 °C mark (the limit at which the detrimental impacts of climate change will be the most significant) between the year 2032 and 2050 due to the cumulative CO2 emissions within the atmosphere. Therefore, it is crucial to tackle global warming because of its serious repercussions such as extreme changes in global weather, which can significantly impact human health and ecosystem. Global warming is caused by the emissions of greenhouse gases; therefore, many countries have established laws and policies to lessen the emissions of greenhouse gases. This study highlights the recently published articles and patents on CO2 capture technologies through adsorption process from the year 2014–2018. Various types of adsorbent that can be potentially used to capture CO2 are discussed. The published patents were obtained from the Derwent World Patents Index and it was found that over 500 patents have been published on the diverse categories of adsorbents which can be used to capture CO2. The top five countries in the world with patents for CO2 capture technology via adsorption are China, United States, World Intellectual Property Organisation, Japan and Korea. This study not only provides a summary of the recent innovations in this area, but also shows relevant information and technologies, which will benefit a wide range of readers including academics, researchers and industry professionals. In addition, it also highlights the patents with current innovation technology, application of CO2 adsorption process in a real scale, patent applications filed in the past years in this field and knowledge gained from these patents which can be a guideline to develop various novel types of adsorbent and invent advanced technology in future.

Representing Climate and Extreme Weather Events in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Existing Methods and Options for Development

The lack of information about future changes in extreme weather is a major constraint of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of climate change. The generation of descriptions of future climate in current IAMs is assessed.We also review recent work on scenario development methods for weather extremes, focusing on those issues which are most relevant to the needs of IAMs. Finally, some options for implementing scenarios of weather extremes in IAMs are considered.

Extreme weather and climate change

This document addresses the concerns raised by the general public about perceived changes in the weather in recent years and whether extreme weather events are related to climatic change. The report examines the question of (1) whether extreme weather is becoming more common, (2) natural variability, (3) greenhouse warming and weather extremes, and (4) implications of an increase in weather extremes. Brief discussions are also included about El Nino and climate change, flooding in Canada, and the 1998 ice storm. 61 refs., 16 figs.