Changes In Energy Use Research Articles

Changes in the Energy Consumption in EU-27 Countries

Changes in the Energy Consumption in EU-27 CountriesThe complete decomposition method is applied to changes in energy consumption in the countries of EU-27. This method decomposes the changes in energy use into three different effects: a change in energy consumption due to an increase of economic activity (the activity effect), a change in energy consumption due to a relative increase of significance of a country in the group (the structure effect) and a change in energy consumption due to a change of energy efficiency measured as energy intensity (the intensity effect). The results confirm that there is a difference in development of these effects between the old (EU-15) and the new member countries. The results show that the activity effect is the most significant effect in old member countries (EU-15), and is on average 1.13 times higher than in new member countries. The intensity effect is the main diversifying factor between the two groups and the most significant effect for the new member countries. The intensity effect is almost universally negative in all countries, and compensates for the other effects. Because of the importance of the effect, energy intensity convergence is examined. It is found that even by the "rough"

Political Economy, Ecological Modernization, and Energy Use: A Panel Analysis of State‐Level Energy Use in the United States, 1960–1990

The present study will examine energy consumption from two competing perspectives within environmental social science: political economy and ecological modernization. These frameworks will be evaluated with a fixed‐effects panel analysis of state‐level energy use between the years 1960 and 1990, based on data for 50 states plus Washington, DC, from the Energy Information Administration’s State Energy Data System. The results from the panel analysis show that the increase in total energy use between 1960 and 1990 depended on both increasing economic growth and urbanization, even after controlling for population size, industrialization, and inflation‐adjusted energy prices. The results challenge the claims of ecological modernization theory and support a political economic approach to the study of changes in energy use. In the conclusion, the study’s findings will be framed within the context of the early twenty‐first‐century economic and ecological crises. In light of efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, this study can also further advance the renewable energy debate by reminding us of the social drivers of energy use.

RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C

The RCP2.6 emission and concentration pathway is representative of the literature on mitigation scenarios aiming to limit the increase of global mean temperature to 2°C. These scenarios form the low end of the scenario literature in terms of emissions and radiative forcing. They often show negative emissions from energy use in the second half of the 21st century. The RCP2.6 scenario is shown to be technically feasible in the IMAGE integrated assessment modeling framework from a medium emission baseline scenario, assuming full participation of all countries. Cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases from 2010 to 2100 need to be reduced by 70% compared to a baseline scenario, requiring substantial changes in energy use and emissions of non-CO2 gases. These measures (specifically the use of bio-energy and reforestation measures) also have clear consequences for global land use. Based on the RCP2.6 scenario, recommendations for further research on low emission scenarios have been formulated. These include the response of the climate system to a radiative forcing peak, the ability of society to achieve the required emission reduction rates given political and social inertia and the possibilities to further reduce emissions of non-CO2 gases.

Identifying the sources of energy use change: Multiple calibration decomposition analysis and structural decomposition analysis

Decomposition methodologies are requisite to identify the sources of changes in energy use or carbon dioxide emissions. This paper is an inquiry into the theoretical properties of such decomposition methodologies. The study first presents our new decomposition methodology – the Multiple Calibration Decomposition Analysis (MCDA) – as a tool for the investigation. Then, it theoretically reexamines an established decomposition methodology – the Structural Decomposition Analysis proposed by Casler and Rose (1998). Subsequently, the study empirically investigates the properties of both methodologies, applying them to an actual case: the changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan during the oil crises period, when the oil price had a significant influence on the economy. The result shows that understanding the theoretical properties of decomposition methodologies is essential for a precise interpretation of empirical results.

Evaluation of European energy behavioural change programmes

This article is based on the findings of the BEHAVE Project (Evaluation of Energy Behavioural Change Programmes) which was supported by the European Commission under the EU Intelligent Energy–Europe (IEE) Programme. The project started with a review of behavioural theories and their applicability in the development and evaluation of energy-related behavioural change programmes, progressed to a case study analysis and finished with a publication of guidelines for programme developers and policy makers. This paper concentrates on the results of the case study analysis and the recommendations arising from it. In the case study analysis, information was collected on almost 100 cases aiming at behavioural change in energy use from 11 European countries. More detailed information was collected on 41 cases which were subject to meta-analysis to identify success factors and weak points and to gather information on the current evaluation practices in such programmes. The meta-analysis was carried out in five phases: context (pre-planning), planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation. Planning and evaluation were recognised as two of the most critical phases. Many of the programmes operated with quite formal plans but were typically not based on scientific theories or evidence. In many cases, there was lack of market segmentation; the goals were not targeted and the programmes tried to offer “everything to everybody”. A multitude of ex-post evaluation methods for programme impacts were reported ranging from participant surveys, testing and comparison with control groups to top–down method evaluating the impact of several programmes focusing on the same target group. Process evaluation (25 cases) was slightly less common than impact evaluation (29 cases). Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of the programmes was a rarity, most likely due to difficulties in quantitative impact evaluation.

Energy Footprint of the City: Effects of Urban Land Use and Transportation Policies

Urban land use and transportation policies have dramatic effects on the density and spatial distribution of residences in large cities. Effects of these policies have been analyzed using numerical urban simulation models. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential Energy Consumption Survey has allowed researchers to investigate the relation between household energy consumption and characteristics of housing units. This paper links these two lines of inquiry so that simulation results on the implications of land use and transportation policies for the spatial form of cities can be used to compute implications for energy consumption. The resulting Urban Energy Footprint Model, UEFM, allows one to trace the implications of a change in land use zoning or transportation policy through its effects on housing markets and residential location to the resulting changes in energy use for residential and commuting purposes - i.e. to understand the energy footprint of transportation, housing, and land use policies. Accordingly, the UEFM provides, perhaps for the first time, a link between urban and energy economics.

Screening level of PAHs in sediment core from Lake Hongfeng, Southwest China.

Using data from a 25-year retrospective of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediment core from Lake Hongfeng, Southwest China, their possible sources and potential toxicologic significance were investigated. The total PAH concentrations (16 priority PAHs as proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency) in sediments ranged from 2936.1 to 5282.3 ng/g and gradually increased from the analyzed deeper sediments to surface sediments. PAHs were dominated by low molecular-weight components, especially phenanthrene (PHEN) and fluorene (FLU). However, a significantly increased number of high molecular-weight (HMW) PAHs was found in upper segments. The temporal trends of individual PAH species suggest that there may have been a change in energy use from low- to high-temperature combustion, especially after approximately 2001. PAH input to Lake Hongfeng originated mainly from domestic coal combustion and biomass burning, whereas fuel combustion characteristics have also been found in recent years. Sediment-quality assessment implied that potential adverse biologic impact could be a probability for most low-ring PAHs (including naphthalene, acenaphthylene, acenaphthylene, FLU, PHEN, and anthracene). Nevertheless, more concern should be paid to HMW PAHs in the future due to their rapidly increasing trends in upper sediments. Because only one core was analyzed in this study, more work is needed to confirm the sources and toxicity of PAHs in Lake Hongfeng.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00244-010-9568-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Using logarithmic mean Divisia index to analyze changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Mexico's iron and steel industry

Using international comparisons and Log mean Divisia index, this paper analyzes energy and CO 2 emission trends of Mexico's iron and steel industry during the period 1970–2006, examining CO 2 emissions related to energy use and production process. The decomposition analysis is based on the structure/efficiency analysis for international comparisons, considering industrial structure and the best available technology. Results show that for the period 1970–2006, activity drove up primary energy use by 227% instead of the actual 133%, while structure and efficiency effects drove it down by 5% and by 90% respectively. The important improvement in Mexican iron and steel primary energy efficiency reduced the gap between best international practice and actual primary energy consumption from 103% in 1970 to only 15% in 2006. CO 2 emissions from fuel consumption and production process increased by 134%, and in addition to structure and efficiency, fuel share effect also drove down emissions by 4.2% in the entire period.

Stress and Parental Care in a Wild Teleost Fish: Insights from Exogenous Supraphysiological Cortisol Implants

Male largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) provide sole parental care over a 4-6-wk period to a single brood, fanning the eggs to keep them oxygenated and free of silt and defending the brood until the offspring develop antipredator tactics. During this period, fish are highly active and have few opportunities for feeding, so this activity is energetically costly. To understand some of the consequences of stress during this challenging period, we injected fish with cortisol suspended in coconut oil to experimentally raise circulating cortisol in parental males for the first week of the parental care period. We compared parental care behavior between cortisol-treated, sham-treated (injected only with coconut oil), and control parental males. We further compared physiological parameters associated with metabolism and reproductive function between cortisol-treated and control males. The cortisol injections resulted in supraphysiological levels of circulating plasma cortisol, giving us insight into potential maximal effects of stress during parental care. At these supraphysiological levels, the cortisol-treated fish displayed higher concentrations of circulating glucose and cholesterol and lower concentrations of circulating triglycerides when compared with control fish, with no change in plasma concentrations of total protein. Plasma concentrations of androgen were similarly unaffected by cortisol treatment. In the short term (initial 1-2 wk), parental care of eggs and egg-sac fry was maintained by all groups, with no differences observed in behavior (e.g., tending, vigilance, defense) among the groups. However, the cortisol-treated fish abandoned their offspring at a higher rate than in the control or sham groups. The fish treated with cortisol also tended to develop external Saprolegnian infections, indicative of compromised immune function. These data demonstrate that exogenous cortisol elevation during parental care results in changes in energy use and a decrease in immune function. Interestingly, the data also suggest resistance to stress during parental care in largemouth bass, with no changes in parental care behavior before abandonment.

Interventions for large-scale carbon emission reductions in future UK offices

Previous work by the authors has shown the effect that changing climate and small power/lighting equipment can have on heating and cooling loads of typical existing UK offices, for a 2005 baseline. This follow-on study uses an improved office, with reduced cooling loads, and performs retrofit fabric and HVAC measures to further reduce the energy and CO 2 emissions associated. The effect of heat recovery on the proposed “2030 office” is then quantified, showing that such an office can tend towards being “passively heated”. With adaptive comfort also applied, the office CO 2 emissions are estimated for various UK locations. The measures suggest CO 2 emissions relating to heating, cooling and ventilation (HVAC) can be reduced by 61% for the specific office-type studied. The proposed measures are carried out while allowing for a change in activity between 2005 and 2030. When all factors leading to changes in energy use are accounted for, namely small power, lighting, HVAC and climate change, total CO 2 savings of 65% are estimated when compared to the 2005 baseline. In achieving these theoretical savings, the relationship between internal activity and HVAC is studied, and identified as being a crucial area if challenging CO 2 emission targets are to be reached.

How do socio-demographic and psychological factors relate to households’ direct and indirect energy use and savings?

Households constitute an important target group for energy conservation. They not only use energy in a direct way (gas, electricity and fuel) but also in an indirect way (embedded in the production, consumption and disposal of goods). During a period of five months (viz., October 2002–March 2003), direct and indirect energy use and direct and indirect energy savings of 189 Dutch households were monitored. The study examined the relative importance of socio-demographic variables and psychological variables in relation to household energy use and changes in energy use (viz., energy savings). For this purpose, variables from the theory of planned behavior [Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 50, 179–211] and the norm activation model [Schwartz, S. H. (1977). Normative influences on altruism. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.). Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 10, pp. 221–279). New York: Academic Press] were used. Results indicate that energy use is determined by socio-demographic variables, whereas changes in energy use, which may require some form of (cognitive) effort, appear to be related to psychological variables. The variables from the norm activation model were able to significantly add to the explanation of energy savings, over and above the variables from the theory of planned behavior. Also, different types of energy use and energy savings appeared to be related to different sets of determinants.

“Thinking About Tomorrows”: Scenarios, Global Environmental Politics, and Social Science Scholarship

Unlike many environmental scientists (and Fleetwood Mac), most social scien- tists do not think yesterday has gone and do not much want to think about tomorrow—at least not in their work. Yet, debate and analysis about global environmental change are often discussions about tomorrow. For example, dis- cussions about climate change rely on projections of the future: of future green- house gas emissions, of future population growth, of future changes in energy use, of future technological innovation, and of future biophysical impacts. Those who grapple with the challenge of thinking about tomorrow do so by producing scenarios. Scenarios are commonly deaned as plausible, chal- lenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold. 1 Environmen- tal change scenarios generally combine quantitative biophysical models and qualitative storylines of social and political trends. They are also explicitly inter- ventionist. Scenario analyses are commissioned with the stated goal of aiding decision-makers in envisioning, understanding, and planning for the future. Many engage in futurizing. In the climate change arena, the Nobel Prize-

What causes the change in energy demand in the economy?: The role of technological change

This paper proposes a simple and theoretically clear approach to the estimation of technological change in a multisector general equilibrium framework. This study employs the Multiple Calibration Decomposition Analysis (MCDA) to evaluate technological change that is responsible for changes in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the Japanese economy in the oil crises period from 1970 to 1985. The MCDA serves as an elementary way of separating structural change due to technological change from that due to price substitution effects, capturing the interdependence among economic sectors. The empirical result provides a better understanding of the effects on the economy of technological change in that significant period.

Implication of global warming on air-conditioned office buildings in Australia

As climate change will entail new conditions for the built environment, the thermal behaviour of air-conditioned office buildings may also change. Using building computer simulations, the impact of warmer weather is evaluated on the design and performance of air-conditioned office buildings in Australia, including the increased cooling loads and probable indoor temperature increases due to a possibly undersized air-conditioning system, as well as the possible change in energy use. It is found that existing office buildings would generally be able to adapt to the increasing warmth of year 2030 Low and High scenarios projections and the year 2070 Low scenario projection. However, for the 2070 High scenario, the study indicates that the existing office buildings in all capital cities of Australia would suffer from overheating problems. For existing buildings designed for current climate conditions, it is shown that there is a nearly linear correlation between the increase of average external air temperature and the increase of building cooling load. For the new buildings designed for warmer scenarios, a 28–59% increase of cooling capacity under the 2070 High scenario would be required. Alors que le changement climatique va entraîner de nouvelles conditions pour le milieu bâti, le comportement thermique des immeubles de bureaux climatisés pourrait également changer. En s'appuyant sur des simulations par ordinateur de bâtiments, on évalue l'impact du réchauffement sur la conception et les performances d'immeubles de bureaux climatisés en Australie, la hausse des charges de réfrigération et l'augmentation probable de la température intérieure dues à un système de climatisation sans doute sous dimensionnée ainsi que les changements possibles de l'utilisation de l’énergie. On constate que les immeubles de bureaux existants peuvent, dans l'ensemble, s'adapter au réchauffement prévu par les scénarios Haut et Bas pour 2030 et le scénario Bas prévu pour 2070. Toutefois, pour le scénario Haut 2070, l’étude indique que les bâtiments de bureaux actuels dans toutes les grandes villes d'Australie souffriront de problèmes d'excès de chaleur. Pour ce qui est des bâtiments existants conçus pour les conditions climatiques actuelles, il apparaît qu'il existe une corrélation presque linéaire entre l'augmentation de la température moyenne de l'air extérieur et l'augmentation de la charge de réfrigération du bâtiment. Pour les nouveaux immeubles conçus pour des scénarios plus chauds, il faudra prévoir une augmentation de 28–59% de la capacité de réfrigération pour le scénario Haut 2070. Mots clés: climatisation, simulation de bâtiment, changement climatique, charge de réfrigération, utilisation de l’énergie, réchauffement planétaire, heures d'excès de chaleur, Australie

Energy prices, energy conservation, and economic growth: Evidence from the postwar United States

The effects of energy prices and energy conservation on economic growth have been examined empirically for the postwar U.S. economy. A vector autoregressive model includes real GDP, real capital, labor, real energy prices, and the Divisia energy index. A key feature of our finding is that some damaging effects of energy conservation on the macroeconomy are statistically insignificant in the short run, and the insignificant short-run effects are quickly enervated over time. Alternative measures of energy use also suggest that energy conservation has no significant impact on real output growth. The findings are generally consistent with the neoclassical position that real economic growth of the United States is neutral with respect to changes in energy use. One exception is the case that energy prices are omitted from the model.

Reducing Diameters of Distillation Columns with Largest Calculated Diameter at the Bottom

Methods are developed to reduce column diameter for distillation when the calculated diameter is largest at the bottom of the column. This diameter can often be reduced by generating vapor above the reboiler with an intermediate reboiler or with two-enthalpy feed. For a saturated liquid feed that is 50% n-butane and 50% n-pentane the two-enthalpy feed system reduced column volume by 8.2% with no change in energy use. For distillation of dilute acetic acid (5%)−water (95%) mixtures the best system (an intermediate reboiler) resulted in decreases in column volume as large as 53.9% with no increase in energy use. For a 50% acetic acid mixture the two-enthalpy feed system resulted in up to 32.5% reduction in column volume, while vaporizing the entire feed resulted in 31.5% volume reduction. Vapor bypass was effective in concentrated absorbers.

The effect of tailored information, goal setting, and tailored feedback on household energy use, energy-related behaviors, and behavioral antecedents

In this multidisciplinary study, an Internet-based tool was used to encourage households ( N=189) to reduce their direct (gas, electricity and fuel) and indirect energy use (embedded in the production, transportation and disposal of consumer goods). A combination of tailored information, goal setting (5%), and tailored feedback was used. The purpose of this study was to examine whether this combination of interventions would result in (i) changes in direct and indirect energy use, (ii) changes in energy-related behaviors, and (iii) changes in behavioral antecedents (i.e. knowledge). After 5 months, households exposed to the combination of interventions saved 5.1%, while households in the control group used 0.7% more energy. Households exposed to the interventions saved significantly more direct energy than households in the control group did. No difference in indirect energy savings emerged. Households exposed to the interventions adopted a number of energy-saving behaviors during the course of the study, whereas households in the control group did so to a lesser extent. Households exposed to the interventions had significantly higher knowledge levels of energy conservation than the control group had. It is argued that if the aim is to effectively encourage household energy conservation, it is necessary to examine changes in energy use, energy-related behaviors and behavioral antecedents.

Multiple calibration decomposition analysis: Energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in the Japanese economy, 1970–1995

The purpose of this paper is to present a new approach to evaluating structural change of the economy in a multisector general equilibrium framework. The multiple calibration technique is applied to an ex post decomposition analysis of structural change between periods, enabling the distinction between price substitution and technological change to be made for each sector. This approach has the advantage of sounder microtheoretical underpinnings when compared with conventional decomposition methods. The proposed technique is empirically applied to changes in energy use and carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions in the Japanese economy from 1970 to 1995. The results show that technological change is of great importance for curtailing energy use and CO 2 emissions in Japan. Total CO 2 emissions increased during this period primarily because of economic growth, which is represented by final demand effects. On the other hand, the effects such as technological change for labor or energy mitigated the increase in CO 2 emissions.

Decomposition of manufacturing energy-use in IEA countries: How do recent developments compare with historical long-term trends?

This paper examines manufacturing energy use due in 10 IEA countries between 1973 and 1998. Changes in energy use are described through using Laspeyres indexes to enable the decomposition of energy use into changes in the overall output of manufacturing (i.e. value added), the structure of output (industrial mix), and the energy intensity of each sub-sector, and to consistently compare the results across countries. The results show that structural changes have reduced manufacturing energy-use in most countries, particularly the US and Japan. In a few countries, however, the manufacturing structure became more energy-intensive and thus drove up energy use over the study period. For the group of 10 IEA nations, the net effect of structural changes accounted for more than a third of the reduction in total manufacturing energy use per unit of output between 1973 and 1998. The rest of the reductions in this period can be explained by falling energy-intensities in individual manufacturing branches. Contrasting post-1986 with earlier years shows that the rate of energy-intensity decline in manufacturing has slowed in most countries. Between 1994 and 1998 most countries experienced a strong growth in manufacturing output and a reduction in aggregated manufacturing energy use per unit output. However, the results of the decomposition analysis presented in this paper point to this reduction being mostly due to a structural shift towards less energy-intensive branches, such as electronics and electronic equipment, and that the impact from reduced energy-intensities was close to nil for the group of 10 IEA countries studied here.

Alternative pathways to a fossil-fuel free energy system in the Mälardalen region of Sweden

This paper presents a study on alternative pathways to a fossil-fuel free regional energy system in the Malardalen region of Sweden with a population of 3 million inhabitants. We describe and address how the region can be made independent of fossil fuels by integration of resource management, technology advances, and behaviour change in energy use. First we investigate the consumption pattern of the inhabitants. Then we study what resources are available, and how these can be used to fulfil the different demands. If we just use the resources in a pattern of business as usual today without changing the behaviour, the balance between demands and resources is difficult to reach. By combining a slightly different behaviour and a change of crops we can fulfil the needs and it might even be possible to have a surplus of resources. Some advanced technological solutions have also been proposed. For example, dedicated biomass energy plants such as Salix, straw, hemp and some cereals can be used for ethanol production and the residues can be gasified to produce dimethylether (DME), which is good as a replacement for diesel fuel. Still the fuel demand for transport is high, and the vehicle weight could be further reduced. For example, by going back to the car size we had only 10 years ago the weight would be 25–30% less, and fuel consumption would be at least 15% lower. With diesel engines instead of Otto engines the fuel consumption could be reduced by 35%, and with hybrid technology additional 20% fuel reduction could be gained. Improved public transportation will also give a positive effect especially for those commuting between the larger cities and between the cities and the suburbs. The results of our calculations show that it would be possible to accomplish a fossil-free energy system in the Malardalen region. The results of this study are important since it shows that an energy balance without fossil fuels could be possible for an area with a population in the order of 3 million people, which would also be valuable in studies of other areas in the world. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.