Changes In Energy Use Research Articles

A review of Indonesia's JETP through the dynamics of its policy regime

AbstractDuring its 2022 G20 presidency, Indonesia committed to reducing carbon emissions through the Indonesia Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP). In addition to other policies, the Partnership is designed to drive the country's broader energy transition and net‐zero aspirations for decades to come. In addition to technical challenges, the Partnership is expected to face social and political resistance. Considering its importance for Indonesia's sustainable development and gaining support from influential stakeholders, this paper examines the JETP through the lens of a policy regime framework, drawing on insights from the country's multi‐decade fossil fuel subsidy reforms (FFSR) – a comparable effort to drive significant changes in energy use. It highlights the critical role of navigating political, social, and regulatory realities that have contributed to the successes or failures of policy reforms. The policy appraisal suggests the need for significant reconsideration of its broader policy‐regime context, specifically political, social, and regulatory factors, to ensure the successful implementation of the JETP and Indonesia's energy transition in general. Furthermore, the paper offers relevant policy recommendations to assist advocates and administrations supporting the Partnership in broadening its appeal beyond environmental concerns to secure stronger social and political backing.

Role of energy efficiency in energy transition: A decomposition analysis of energy use

The use of energy-efficient technologies tends to reduce the overall energy use of a country and foster the energy transition pathways. However, a change in energy can occur either due to a change in activity effect, intensity effect, or structural effect. The objective of the study is firstly to examine and measure the magnitude of change in energy use and identify the factor responsible for the change in energy use in the selected sectors. Secondly, the paper aims to analyze the impact of the Norwegian economy on the three effects of energy use. The study contributes significantly to identifying the sector that experiences a reduction in energy use due to energy efficiency and examining the impact of the economy on energy use. The overall energy use between 1990 and 2017 is decomposed into three different effects for selected energy-intensive sectors by deploying the ‘Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index’ (LMDI) method. Further, the impact of the Norwegian economy is examined on the three effects of energy use. It is observed that in each Phase, the key driver for change in energy use in all three Phases is the transport sector. Post-recession, the energy use in the transport sector was due to structural effects. Consumer behavior and limitations of sources of finance are the challenges for the deployment of electric vehicles even after technological breakthroughs in energy efficiency. Finally, the policies to enhance energy efficiency in energy-intensive sectors, such as the transport, and services sector must be undertaken to efficiently visualize energy efficiency-driven energy transition.

Net Change in Energy Use from Ridehail Services in Five California Regions

Net Change in Energy Use from Ridehail Services in Five California Regions

Coalitional game-based gain generation and distribution for collective self-consumption in an energy community

Climate change is requiring changes in energy use. The integration of renewable energy sources into the energy mix is a viable solution for electricity generation, but their intermittence forces us to imagine new ways to consume and distribute electricity. Thus, new economic models and new organizations have to be established. Energy communities are a recent legal solution to share renewable energy among local actors. These structures facilitate the set-up of collective self-consumption operations. Collective self-consumption is an interesting tool to increase local renewable energy consumption and limit energy losses on the distribution grid. Consequently, energy communities are pursuing a dual objective: reducing energy bills and the environmental footprint of the participants. However, the distribution of gains generated through collective self-consumption is one of the main obstacles to the implementation of energy communities. An interesting possibility comes from game theory, especially from cooperative games, as solutions concepts already exist to solve this kind of problem.In this paper, a payoff distribution is proposed through a collaborative game. The aim of the study is to explore ways to distribute gains generated by collective self consumptions on individual self consumptions. These gains are 8% on the total energy bill and 25% on the self-consumption rate, assuming a collective objective based on the self-consumption rate and individual objectives based on the price of energy. In order to distribute the financial gains, two major concepts in cooperative game theory are studied in this paper: the Shapley Value and the Nucleolus. The advantages and drawbacks of these concepts in an energy community context are identified, as these concepts are based on two different philosophies: The properties of individual fairness of the Shapley Value and collective fairness of the Nucleolus for energy management are therefore discussed. Furthermore, a methodology is proposed to enable a fairer distribution of payoffs according to specific energy management parameters, such as efficiency and flexibility.

Car-following model based on spatial expectation effect in connected vehicle environment: modeling, stability analysis and identification

In driving situations, if drivers have advanced access to downstream traffic conditions ahead of time, they may modify their driving behavior accordingly. This proactive approach can help reduce frequent acceleration and deceleration of vehicles and minimize traffic congestion. This paper considers the average headway of downstream vehicles to predict the traffic conditions of downstream roads. Based on the full velocity difference (FVD) model, we propose a car-following model that incorporates spatial expectation effect (SEFVD). Firstly, a linear stability analysis is performed on the SEFVD model, and the results indicate that the critical value of the SEFVD model is relatively small, and the stabilization region increases gradually with the number of vehicles downstream. Secondly, employing perturbation amplitudes on a virtual circular road, a numerical simulation of the SEFVD model is carried out and compared with the FVD model. The results demonstrate that the SEFVD model has the ability to suppress the formation of traffic oscillations and stabilize vehicle formation more quickly. Simulation results for the 11 cars starting from a traffic signal indicate that the delay time and kinematic wave speed of the SEFVD model are within reasonable limits. To evaluate the changes in energy use, we also carried out energy consumption experiments. The experimental findings show that the SEFVD model uses less energy compared to the FVD model. Finally, the parameters of the models are calibrated and verified by using NGSIM data. The total calibration error of the SEFVD model (m = 2) decreases by 42.97% compared to the FVD model, and the total validation error decreases by 29.3%. The results show that the proposed model can fit the actual data well, and the fitting error is smaller.

Fuzzy logic-based energy management in smart grids for renewable integration

This study explores the creation and execution of energy management methods using fuzzy logic in smart grids, with the goal of effectively incorporating renewable energy sources. The research employs empirical data that includes information on renewable energy production, changes in energy use, the current state of battery storage, and control measures taken. The data analysis demonstrates significant variations in renewable energy sources, namely solar energy ranging from 350 kW to 410 kW, wind energy changing from 180 kW to 220 kW, and hydro energy varied from 120 kW to 150 kW. The energy consumption in different sectors exhibits varied patterns. Residential consumption ranges from 250 kW to 275 kW, industrial demand increases from 300 kW to 330 kW, and commercial consumption fluctuates from 200 kW to 225 kW. The battery storage status shows changes, with Battery 1 seeing an increase from 150 kWh to 165 kWh, Battery 2 fluctuating between 180 kWh and 195 kWh, and Battery 3 maintaining a stable range of 200 kWh to 215 kWh. The use of control actions based on fuzzy logic demonstrates flexibility, where Control Action 1 ranges from 0.6 to 0.8, Control Action 2 fluctuates from 0.5 to 0.7, and Control Action 3 varies from 0.6 to 0.9. The study highlights the flexibility and quick response of the energy management system based on fuzzy logic. It can adjust control actions in real-time to accommodate changes in renewable energy generation, consumption patterns, and battery storage. This indicates its potential to optimize energy flow and ensure grid stability in smart grids, facilitating the efficient integration of renewable energy.

Sizing and scheduling optimisation method for off-grid battery photovoltaic irrigation networks

An algorithm to optimise the number of solar panels and battery size to meet the water demands of an installation has been developed. The algorithm adjusts for seasonal changes in energy use and production in a pressurized irrigation network and production in an off-grid solar panel system. By using this algorithm, we aim to create an efficient and sustainable irrigation system by reducing the infrastructure and reliance on the power grid. This method can enhance irrigation systems in far-off regions, strengthen their endurance, and promote sustainable energy in farming and water administration.

Impacts of climate change, population growth, and power sector decarbonization on urban building energy use

Climate, technologies, and socio-economic changes will influence future building energy use in cities. However, current low-resolution regional and state-level analyses are insufficient to reliably assist city-level decision-making. Here we estimate mid-century hourly building energy consumption in 277 U.S. urban areas using a bottom-up approach. The projected future climate change results in heterogeneous changes in energy use intensity (EUI) among urban areas, particularly under higher warming scenarios, with on average 10.1–37.7% increases in the frequency of peak building electricity EUI but over 110% increases in some cities. For each 1 °C of warming, the mean city-scale space-conditioning EUI experiences an average increase/decrease of ~14%/ ~ 10% for space cooling/heating. Heterogeneous city-scale building source energy use changes are primarily driven by population and power sector changes, on average ranging from –9% to 40% with consistent south–north gradients under different scenarios. Across the scenarios considered here, the changes in city-scale building source energy use, when averaged over all urban areas, are as follows: –2.5% to –2.0% due to climate change, 7.3% to 52.2% due to population growth, and –17.1% to –8.9% due to power sector decarbonization. Our findings underscore the necessity of considering intercity heterogeneity when developing sustainable and resilient urban energy systems.

Does LEED certification save energy? Evidence from retrofitted federal buildings

This paper examines the causal impact of LEED (Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design) certification on energy consumption among federally owned buildings that were retrofitted over the period 1990–2019. Using a difference-in-differences propensity score matching approach, the paper has two findings. First, despite energy savings being an explicit federal goal, LEED-certified retrofits of federal buildings did not have statistically significant energy savings on average. Second, LEED buildings with higher energy scores had greater energy efficiency post-certification, and the improvements were economically meaningful. The absence of energy savings on average appears to be driven by three factors — trade-offs across energy and other areas in acquiring points for certification, possible changes in energy use after the official performance period for LEED certification ended, and improvements in the energy efficiency of all federal buildings.

Changing patterns in the highly contributing aerosol types/species across the globe in the past two decades

With the rapidly changing aerosol emissions due to the increase in urbanization, energy consumption, population density, and industrialization in the past two decades across the globe, there is an evolution of different chemical properties of aerosols that are yet not quantified properly. Therefore, a rigorous attempt is made in this study to obtain the long-term changing patterns in the contribution of different aerosol types/species, to the total aerosol loading. This study is carried out only over those regions exhibiting either increasing or decreasing trends in the aerosol optical depth (AOD) parameter on a global scale. Applying the multivariate linear regression trend analysis on Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol species dataset obtained between 2001 and 2020, we found that despite the overall statistically significant decrease in total columnar AOD trend values over North-Eastern America, and Eastern and Central China regions, an increase in the dust and organic carbon aerosols is observed, respectively. As the uneven vertical distribution of aerosols can alter the direct radiative effects, the extinction profiles of different aerosol types obtained using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) dataset between 2006 and 2020, are further partitioned, for the first time, based on their presence in different altitudes (i.e., within the atmospheric boundary layer and free-troposphere) as well as measurement timing (i.e., daytime and night-time) regimes. The detailed analysis showed that there exists an overall higher contribution of aerosols persisting in the free troposphere region which in turn can have a long-term effect on climate due to their higher residence time, particularly absorbing aerosols. As the trends are mostly associated with the changes in energy use, regional regulatory policies, and/or changing background meteorology conditions, therefore this study also elaborates on the effectiveness of these factors with the changes obtained in different aerosol species/types over the region.

Methodological platform for determining energy efficiency indicators of a complex system

The correct determination of the energy efficiency (EE) of a complex system is a problematic task that requires the use of specialized methods and approaches. Most often, EE is considered as an indicator of the quality-of-service provision, which most fully corresponds to the technical and economic essence of this indicator. The structural and functional organization of the system of such indicators is carried out either on a bottom-up approach or a top-down approach, gradually deploying macroeconomic indicators defined at the system levels. This paper considers the tensor form of organization of the system of such indicators, which allows combining within a single model not only their organizational levels (economy as a whole, economic sectors, enterprises, technologies and equipment), but also the types of activities that reflect these indicators (energy, financial, economic, institutional, environmental, social, etc.), and the factors of changes in energy use (structural, technological, resource, managerial, regulatory, etc.). The paper presents the mapping of this model on the plane of structural and functional factors in the form of classification tables (matrices) of these factors (system elements). The paper describes the procedure for optimizing indicators, which can be carried out for each of these factors separately, their aggregate at each level and for the system as a whole, taking into account the need to implement iterative procedures for coordinating the global (system-wide) goal and local objective functions. Given the use of optimization variables measured in energy and monetary units, this problem is formalized within the framework of the set-theoretic approach. For the purpose of comparing the results, the paper examines the relevant provisions of the International Energy Agency methodology, which uses the direct method of three-factor Laspeyres decomposition analysis, and the Sectoral Methodology for Calculating Harmful Emissions of the Ministry for Communities and Territories Development of Ukraine. Keywords: Energy efficiency, energy efficiency indicators, system analysis, tensor approach.

A novel index for assessing the climate potential of free-running buildings based on the acceptable upper limits of thermal comfort models across China

This study gathered hourly temperatures and solar radiation data from 42 years for walls in five cities within the five major climate zones across China. The long-term hourly operative temperatures in summer were determined in accordance with the ISO standard. A novel index is proposed to analyse quantitatively the local climate potential of free-running buildings. The index calculates the number of hours when the indoor operative temperature is above/below the acceptable upper limit of thermal comfort, counted in summer or throughout a year. In Harbin, Beijing, Wuhan, Kunming, and Guangzhou, the summer climate potential of free-running buildings was found to be 90 %-98 %, 83 %-96 %, 75 %-88 %, almost 100 %, and 62 %-93 %, respectively. Cities in Northern China are better suited for passive cooling design because they have a diminishing pattern of climate potential from colder climates in the north to warmer climates in the south. Additionally, positive slopes were found for the long-term shifting patterns of hour proportion from 1971 to 2012, pointing to a decrease in the summer climate potential across China. These findings have significant effects on the analyses of how buildings can adapt to and mitigate climate change and the likely changes in energy use.

Testing the asymmetric effect of financial stability towards carbon neutrality target: The case of Iceland and global comparison

In the last decade, the CO2 emissions in Iceland continues to relatively decrease; simultaneously, the country has been one of the highly financially stable country in the world. However, Iceland has higher per-capita CO2 emissions than several other European nations. As a result, the major question arising is, “what are the environmental effect of financial stability in Iceland?” This research scrutinizes the asymmetric effect of financial stability on CO2 emissions in Iceland. Using the quarterly dataset that span from 1995 to 2019. We employ the nonlinear ARDL and Fourier-based approach to uncover these asymmetric interconnections. The empirical findings of non-linear bound test and Fourier-based approach uncover the evident of cointegration between CO2 emissions and financial stability and other exogenous variables (such as income, energy use, and trade openness). The outcomes of the NARDL showed that a positive variation in financial stability mitigates CO2 emissions, whereas negative variation has a neutral impact on CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the result of other exogenous variables suggested that a positive change in energy use have an increased effects on CO2 emissions while a negative variation in energy use have mitigating effects on CO2 emissions. Also, Positive variation in income triggers CO2 emissions, but a negative variation in income has a neutral effect CO2 emission. Conversely, a negative variation in trade openness have increased effects on CO2 emissions, while a positive change in mitigating effects on CO2 emissions. The Fully modified ordinary least square and Dynamic ordinary least square estimators reveal that energy use and income level increase CO2 emissions, while trade openness and financial stability mitigate CO2 emissions. Policymakers in Iceland should focus their significant efforts on enhancing financial stability to encourage environmental innovation, investment, and technology by reducing the negative effect of financial stability. Furthermore, strengthening the trade liberalization policies toward the flow of green goods and services extends the environmental impacts of trade openness in Iceland.

City-level emission peak and drivers in China

China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation, and local authorities need more city-specific information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies. This study provides the most comprehensive CO2 emission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to 2019. The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production. We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces. The results show that 38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least five years and another 21 cities also have emission decline, but passively. The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by efficiency improvements and structural changes in energy use, while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss. We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline, and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals. Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak.

Decomposition Analysis of Energy Consumption in Thailand, 1990-2020

Thailand is a net energy importer that has steadily increased the demand for energy over the past several decades. But there has not been a systematic analysis of the energy demand change factors. Therefore, a decomposition analysis was applied to determine the major factor causing the change in energy use during the years 1990-2020. The analysis covered a regional financial crisis known in Thailand as the “Tom Yum Kung” crisis in 1997-1998 and a global pandemic COVID-19 in 2020 onwards. The analysis results showed that the value-added of economic sectors is the most important factor with requiring more energy, while energy intensity is the second most important factor in reducing energy consumption. Therefore, increasing the value-added of productions and enhancing the energy efficiency more stringent will lead to a decoupling of energy consumption against GDP and a sooner peak demand of energy in Thailand.

Estimating energy savings from a train driving advice system

TTG Energymiser is an in-cab system that provides real-time driving advice to train drivers with the aim of reducing energy use subject to meeting the train schedule. A survey of the efficacy of Energymiser has been undertaken, to provide evidence for marketing claims. Results from 23 different trials are analysed, where 16 of the trials were on passenger routes and 7 were on freight routes. Each trial consists of many trips, with Energymiser activated for around half, and yields an estimate of the change in energy use when Energymiser is used. A Bayesian hierarchical model is fitted to the 16 estimates from passenger routes and provides an estimate of the mean saving and the standard deviation of individual trials about the mean. The mean saving is 7.2% and the standard deviation of individual trials is estimated as 3.3%. The corresponding mean and standard deviation for freight routes are 8.4% and 5.8%, respectively.

Energy use and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions drivers in Egypt's economy: Focus on the agricultural sector with a structural decomposition analysis

Investigating drivers of energy use and its associated CO2 emissions changes is important for sustainable development. Using input-output structural decomposition analysis, this paper decomposed the energy use and resulting CO2 emissions drivers of changes in Egypt's wide economy, particularly in its agricultural sector, between 1972 and 2014. Fuel sources dominating energy use and energy-related CO2 emissions in the agriculture sector were explicitly identified. Affluence and demographic effects were the dominant drivers at both investigation levels. Household and government final consumption changes and exports expansion were important determinants behind changes in energy use and resulting CO2 emissions at the aggregate level from the final demand destination perspective. In the agricultural sector, petroleum and oil were the dominant fuel types. The technological effect was the main driver restraining energy use growth at the aggregate level. However, technological improvements have not been sufficient to make up for the evolving economy and consumption levels. Conversely, technological changes adversely impacted energy-related CO2 emissions at the economy-wide level, and both considered environmental indicators in the agricultural sector. Overall, upgrading technology and improving the final demand structure will be critical for Egypt to promote decoupling in the future.

From hunter-gatherer subsistence strategies to the Agricultural Revolution: Disentangling Energy Regimes as a complement to cultural phases in Northern Spain

The Holocene is defined by the impact of agricultural societies on their natural environments and resources, a paradigmatic shift triggered by the Agricultural Revolution. In Cantabrian Spain, the adoption of a sedentary economy (ca. 7000 cal yr BP) remains misunderstood, with contemporary Mesolithic and Neolithic sites apparently random dispersed. Energy Regimes, a time-independent and functional analysis of past societies, considers two cultures that cohabit and/or cooperate, based on their differential pattern of use of energy and resources, as well as on the variation in land-use strategies. We test and implement the framework of Energy Regimes through a targeted review, to examine the hunter-gatherer subsistence strategies in Cantabrian Spain. Archeological proxies such as demography, mobility, complexity of society, economy, and overexploitation of resources identified in 95 articles and books, allow us to apply Energy Regimes to reexamine transitions in hunter-gatherer societies. Neolithization in Cantabrian Spain is the result of a long process that started with the Solutrean cultural phase ca. 24,000 cal yr BP, during the Last Glacial Maximum. Hunter-gatherers developed onward novel subsistence strategies with subtle changes in energy use until the transition toward a sedentary economy. Energy Regimes provide new insights for other regional contexts where time-bounded analyses conceal the complexity of energy transition processes in Europe and beyond.

Effective policies for reducing household energy use: Insights from Norway

In Norway, stationary energy use in the housing sector grew steeply from the 1970 s to the beginning of the 1990 s, however over the last decades it has reached a saturation level. This article explains why Norway energy use increased at a different rate from 1990 to 2019 (0.15 percent per year) compared to development from 1970 to 1990 (2.4 percent per year). It asks: What explains the actual change in energy use since 1990? How might the choice of different mixes of energy policy measures affect household energy use towards 2030? A complex dynamic model was developed to understand the factors affecting stationary energy use in the housing sector and our analyses highlight three variables that explain the shift in trend: (1) lower growth in in dwelling area per person, (2) lower energy use per m2 and (3) changes in outdoor temperature. Our study helps examine changes in overarching policy during the period from growth towards reducing stationary energy use in the housing sector. In Norway, the goal is to reduce energy use by 10 TWh in existing buildings by 2030, compared with the 2016 level. Should the housing sector take its share this imply a 5 TWh reduction by 2030. To achieve a reduction of 5 TWh by 2030, we conclude that we need to utilize very different policy instruments. The living area per person need to decline and a redistribution of area from detached houses to apartment blocks, thus indicating that an effective policy will be maximum standards for housing consumption per capita. Renovation of existing buildings will also have a major effect and should be applied to reduce gross heating demand and energy for water heating, thus instruments to create supply and demand and new business opportunities for renovation and energy efficiency should be promoted.

The potential for indoor fans to change air conditioning use while maintaining human thermal comfort during hot weather: an analysis of energy demand and associated greenhouse gas emissions

Increasing air conditioner use for cooling indoor spaces has the potential to be a primary driver of global greenhouse gas emissions. Moving indoor air with residential fans can raise the temperature threshold at which air conditioning needs to be turned on to maintain the thermal comfort of building occupants. We investigate whether fans can be used to reduce air conditioner use and associated greenhouse gas emissions. We developed an integrated framework, featuring a dynamic adaptive thermal comfort model with a geographical information system-based spatially gridded map of Australia, further complemented with census data. We assessed the change in energy use and associated greenhouse gas emissions for five scenarios of air conditioner and fan use: an air conditioner-only scenario (no fans); and four fan-first scenarios with fans operating at speeds of 0·1 m/s, 0·3 m/s, 0·8 m/s, and 1·2 m/s, with air conditioning used only once the upper temperature threshold for thermal discomfort is exceeded. For each day of the selected case study year, we estimated the upper temperature limit for thermal comfort and the number of hours in which air conditioning would be switched on. The thermal comfort threshold was increased by the use of fans compared with air conditioner use alone. We found that widespread indoor fan use had the potential to reduce energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions attributable to air conditioner use, without compromising thermal comfort. Taking an annual perspective, the use of fans with air speeds of 1·2 m/s compared with air conditioner use alone resulted in a 76% reduction in energy use (from 5592 GWh to 1344 GWh) and associated greenhouse gas emissions (5091 kilotonnes to 1208 kilotonnes). A common strategy to cope with hot weather is the use of air conditioners, which feed a cycle of high electricity consumption, often delivered by fossil fuel power stations that in turn contribute to further increases in emissions. Moving air with electric fans could serve as a sustainable alternative, reducing air conditioner use and associated greenhouse gas emissions without sacrificing thermal comfort. Australian Research Council, New South Wales Department of Planning, Industry and Environment, and The University of Sydney.