Changes In Ecosystem Services Research Articles

Modeling the distribution of cultural ecosystem services based on future climate variables under different scenarios

With the far-reaching consequences of worldwide climate variationon ecosystems and human societies, understanding and predicting changes in cultural ecosystem services (CES) is essential for sustainable development policy and resource planning. Past studies have focused on changes and impacts on natural ecosystems, while relatively few studies have been conducted on predictions of CES. This study combines POI datasets with future climate variables under different scenarios into the Maxent model for forecasting the spatial and temporal distribution of CES, which provides strong support for future decision-making. The results indicate that: (1) Under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, the CES values in the northern, western, central, and northeastern parts of the study area are relatively high, while those in the southwestern, southern, and southeastern parts are relatively low. (2) Under the SSP126 scenario, the total CES shows an increasing trend from 2021 to 2040, but slightly declines from 2061 to 2080. In contrast, under the SSP585 scenario, the total CES significantly decreases from 2021 to 2040, especially in the provinces of Guizhou, Hunan, Zhejiang, and Anhui. (3) Temperature has a significant impact on CES predictions, with the annual mean temperature (Bio1) positively correlated with total CES, contributing between 0.75 and 0.78 to the distribution of CES across different years and scenarios. Additionally, the maximum temperature of the hottest month (Bio5) and the mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) also significantly influence CES under different scenarios and years. These findings reveal the regional characteristics and variations in CES distribution under different climate scenarios, providing crucial scientific evidence for future policy-making, resource management, and climate adaptation strategies. They also offer important insights into the impact of global climate change on ecosystems and human society, serving as a valuable reference for future national decision-making.

Multi-Scale Effects of Supply–Demand Changes in Water-Related Ecosystem Services Across Different Landscapes in River Basin

To promote sustainable hierarchical management, it is essential to understand the complex relationships within and underlying causes of supply–demand changes in water-related ecosystem services (WESs) across different spatial scales and landscape patterns. Consequently, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) and Multi-Scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) are used to analyze the factors influencing changes in WESs supply–demand. The findings indicate that (1) at the macroscale, population size, and economic activity are the main driving factors, while at the microscale, precipitation becomes the primary factor influencing fluctuations in WESs supply–demand. (2) Furthermore, over time, the influence of social factors becomes increasingly significant. (3) The explanatory power of a single factor typically increases as it interacts with other factors. (4) Abundant precipitation helps in the generation and maintenance of WESs, but intense human activities may have negative impacts on them. Therefore, we have made significant progress in identifying and analyzing the natural and human-induced driving forces affecting changes in WESs by deeply integrating long-term multi-source remote sensing data with the OPGD and MGWR models.

Evaluating the Effects of Wetland Restoration on Ecosystem Services Using InVEST and Geostatistics: A Case Study of Dongting Lake in China

Ecological restoration projects aim to recover ecosystems that have been degraded, damaged, or destroyed. The effective assessment of these projects is crucial for ensuring that restoration goals are met and for guiding future efforts. The Poplar Ecological Restoration Project (PERP), focused on removing floodplain poplar plantations, is a key environmental initiative in China to preserve the ecological functions and services of the Dongting Lake freshwater wetland complex. Understanding the dynamic changes in ecosystem services and their trade-offs/synergies before and after the project is crucial for ensuring that ecosystem services are maintained and enhanced. This study selected three key ecosystem services, water conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality, as indicators to assess the PERP. Using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and geostatistical methods, including the Spearman correlation analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis, we explored the ecological outcomes of the project. The results indicated that since its implementation in 2014, the PERP has significantly altered the land use and land cover (LULC) in the lake. Most of the former plantations have been converted into reedbeds (17,404 ha), followed by sedgelands (3841 ha), mudflats (443 ha), shallow waters (382 ha), and deep waters (301 ha). During this period, water conservation and habitat quality initially decreased and then increased, while carbon storage continuously declined. Overall, all assessed services showed an increasing trend except for carbon storage, resulting in a slight decrease in the integrated ecosystem services. Moreover, there were strong bivariate associations among the three investigated ecosystem services, and the synergies were strengthened during the project. Importantly, these synergies became positive after the PERP, meaning that the improvement of one service enhanced others, potentially leading to a more sustainable and resilient ecosystem.

Study on the Value of Ecosystem Services and Land Use Change in the Area North of the Tianshan Mountains from 2000 to 2020

The northern Tianshans region in the arid zone of northwestern China plays a key role in promoting high-quality development of the ecological environment. In recent years, ecological environmental protection in this region has encountered major challenges due to the dual impacts of human activities and natural changes. In order to accurately assess the current status of the ecological environment in the northern Tianshans, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal changes in land use and ecological and environmental effects using land use data from 2000 to 2020 and explored the current status of land use, land use dynamic process, and ecosystem service value (ESV) in the region. Two-factor spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the spatio-temporal characteristics of the value changes over the 20-year period as well as their spatial heterogeneity. The results show that: (1) land use changes are dominated by increases in cultivated land, forest land, watershed, and wetland, and decreases in grassland, glacier snow, and bare land. Of these changes, the expansion of cultivated land area is the most significant, showing a total increase of 1136.13 × 103 hm2. (2) The ESV increased and then decreased, reaching the highest value in 2005 and the lowest in 2020. The value of individual ecosystem services is dominated by regulating services, accounting for about 67% of the total value. (3) The overall regional balance of ecological environment quality and the contribution rate of the conversion from bare land to other land types is as high as 82.7986%, constituting the main factor in regional ecological environment improvement. The spatial distribution pattern exhibits the characteristic of “high in the northeast and low in the southwest”. (4) There is a positive correlation between the ESV, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the Anthropogenic Impact Composite Index, with the NDVI being the main cause of spatial heterogeneity in the ESV. The research results provide a scientific basis for ecological protection, land management, and policy formulation in the northern foothills of the Tianshan Mountains and are of great significance for promoting regional sustainable development.

Understanding future water-carbon-land coupled systems in the era of COP 27: The case of the Hanjiang river Basin, China

The 27th Conference of the Parties (COP 27) emphasized addressing this century's interconnected challenges of food, water, and energy. This study proposes a coupled ecosystem service and multi-scenario land-use change simulation model designed to investigate the future dynamics of water-carbon-land coupled systems in the Hanjiang River Basin (HJRB), the primary objective is to provide valuable insights that can inform strategic spatial management decisions, aligning with the ambitious objectives outlined in COP 27. Specifically, this study utilized the PLUS model, InVEST model, and redundancy analysis to comprehensively analyze the interplay between ecosystem services and land-use changes, with a specific focus on water, carbon, and land dynamics. The results showed that regardless of the simulated scenarios, there was a consistent pattern observed in the changes of land use types within the HJRB, with a decrease in farmland and an increase in forest. However, the water area showed an increasing trend in all scenarios, especially in the ecological land protection (ELP) and sustainable development scenarios. Furthermore, the ELP scenario effectively suppressed the expansion of building land and the erosion of ecological land. Ecosystem services under different scenarios showed similar spatial distribution patterns but presented varying degrees of change related to the impact of future land use and urban development on ecosystem services. The water yield (WY), carbon storage, and soil conservation in the upstream areas increased to varying degrees, while those in the downstream areas decreased. In conclusion, precipitation, land use/land cover change, DEM (Digital Elevation Model), and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) were the main driving factors affecting ecosystem services, with precipitation having the most significant and enduring impact on WY. This study supports the adoption of targeted spatial management measures to promote sustainable development and enhance human well-being.

Assessing the ecological complexity and uncertainty of predicting forest ecosystem services under climate change

Climate change affects Central European forest ecosystems in different ways and, consequently, these changes result in different feedbacks on the provision of forest ecosystem services. Regarding the complexity and the variability in climate-forest interactions outcome, forest decision makers necessitate reliable information about changes in the forest ecosystem services for planning and adaptation purposes. However, forest productivity predictions incorporate multiple levels of uncertainty that have to be regarded to ensure building realistic expectations in forest decision-making. Besides the chosen forest simulation model, uncertainties come from the climate change data represented by a set of representative concentration pathways (RCP), within the underlying ensemble of global circulation and regional climate models (GCM-RCM), and further in the treatment of the CO2-fertilization effect. We considered the mentioned uncertainties in a framework on simulating forest growth and water services for two forest sites, a Sessile oak and a Scots pine stand in Rhineland-Palatine, Germany. The framework revealed a high variability in future forest ecosystem services. Particularly, the variability among the selected GCM-RCM models within the same Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) was higher than the variability among different RCPs (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 representing the low and high CO2-emission scenarios, respectively). Sessile oak productivity increased under all scenarios, whereas Scots pine growth declined in the lower end of the RCP8.5 scenario. Water services remained mostly stable at both sites. Moreover, we applied a panel data model to estimate what climate indices caused changes in the forest ecosystem services. We found that Scots pine is more sensitive to a multitude of climate indices, such as temperature changes and Sessile oak showed strong response to the CO2-fertilization. We propose applying this framework to evaluate forest management options under climate change.

Assessing Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services within the Tianshan Mountainous Region

In managing ecosystem services (ESs), it is vital to understand and effectively regulate the trade-offs and synergies (ToSs) involved. This study investigates the Tianshan Mountains (TSMs), utilizing the InVEST (Integrated Valuation of ESs and Tradeoffs) model to evaluate ecosystem service changes from 2000 to 2020, while employing univariate linear regression to examine their spatiotemporal dynamics. Pearson correlation analysis was also conducted to assess how climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation indicators (NDVI, normalized difference vegetation index) influence the overall ecosystem service benefits. The findings reveal notable spatial heterogeneity and dynamic shifts in ESs across the TSMs, with strong synergies observed between carbon storage (CS) and other services (such as habitat quality, HQ; soil conservation, SC; and water yield, WY), especially in areas experiencing increased vegetation. However, the connection between HQ and WY was comparatively weaker and occasionally exhibited negative correlations during specific periods, highlighting the intricate trade-offs among various services. The correlation analysis further showed that climate and vegetation changes significantly impact ecosystem service benefits, with declining precipitation and rising temperatures reducing these benefits, whereas higher NDVI was associated with improved service functions. Ultimately, this study emphasizes the necessity of recognizing and managing ToSs in ESs to promote sustainable regional ecosystem development.

Grassland or Cropland? Land Use Dilemma and Ecological Solutions in Inner Mongolia

ABSTRACTInner Mongolia plays a critical role in both ecological conservation and food provision in China. However, some researchers have argued that focusing on and improving only one side of the equation necessarily threatens the functionality of the opposite side. To address this problem, we compared a “business‐as‐usual” scenario (BAU) with a “sustainable land use planning” scenario (SLU) constructed by simulating spatiotemporal changes in croplands and grasslands in Inner Mongolia from 2020 to 2030. Additionally, we analyzed the changes in ecosystem services and protein supply associated with changes in land use. We found that, in the BAU scenario, grasslands would decrease by 1.85% over the simulation period, while croplands would increase by 9.94%, with ecosystem services decreasing under both land uses. In contrast, land use changes over the same period in the SLU scenario are more significant, with increases of 11.33% and 2.78% in grassland and cropland, respectively, but, in this case, with ecosystem services increasing under both land uses. Moreover, protein supply increased under both scenarios, but SLU scenario can provide 33% more protein than the BAU scenario. The interconversion of cropland and grassland is the main type of land conversion in the study region, while cropland, grassland, and bare land show a triangular cycle of conversion. In addition, the implementation of scenario planning can realize multiple dividend for cultivation, livestock, and ecology in Inner Mongolia.

The Gains and Losses of Cultivated Land Requisition–Compensation Balance: Analysis of the Spatiotemporal Trade-Offs and Synergies in Ecosystem Services Using Hubei Province as a Case Study

The cultivated land requisition–compensation balance (CLRCB) policy is an important policy implemented by China to address the reduction in cultivated land and ensure food security. Although this policy has alleviated the loss of cultivated land quantity, it has had complex and diverse impacts on ecosystem services. Taking Hubei Province as the study area, this research explores the impact of the implementation of the CLRCB on ecosystem services and simulates the changes in ecosystem services in the study area in 2030 and the impact of CLRCB on the interactions among various services. The results show the following: (1) from 2000 to 2020, Hubei Province achieved a balance in the quantity of cultivated land through excessive compensation but failed to reach the goals of balancing cultivated land yield and productivity. (2) During the requisition–compensation process, habitat quality decreased by 501,862, and carbon storage lost 1.3 × 107 t, indicating negative ecological impacts; soil conservation services increased by 184.2 × 106 t, and water production increased by 21.29.3 × 108 m3. Within the cultivated land requisition–compensation area, habitat quality and carbon storage, as well as soil conservation and water production, exhibited synergistic relationships, while the remaining pairs of ecosystem services showed trade-off relationships. (3) The simulation of ecosystem services in 2030 indicates that soil conservation and water production are highest under the natural development scenario, while habitat quality and carbon storage are highest under the ecological protection scenario, both of which are superior to the urban development scenario. Under the natural development scenario, the trade-off and synergistic relationships among various ecosystem services in the cultivated land requisition–compensation area remain unchanged, while these relationships change significantly under the other two scenarios. This study emphasizes that future CLRCB should not only focus on maintaining the quantity of cultivated land but also consider the comprehensive benefits of ecosystem services, in order to achieve sustainable land-use management and ecological conservation.

Impact of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service values in the Fenhe River Basin in China

The evolution of landscape patterns affects the supply of ecosystem services. It is important to explore the relationship between them to improve regional ecological stability and maintain ecological health. The Fenhe River is the second largest tributary of the Yellow River and it represents a fragile ecological environment. Our study aimed to analyze the impact of changes in landscape patterns on the value of ecosystem services (ESV) in the Fenhe River Basin (FRB). Land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 were used to extract landscape pattern indices. Methods such as ecosystem service value accounting, sensitivity analysis, correlation analysis, and geodetector modeling were employed to investigate changes in landscape patterns and ESV, and to identify the driving forces and impacts of these changes on ESV. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the dominant landscape in the FRB was cultivated land, followed by forestland and grassland, which together covered 92% of the total area. (2) Over the past 20 years, the extent of landscape fragmentation had continued to increase and ecological function had deteriorated. (3) ESV had continued to decrease. The ESV provided by the regulating service function was the largest, accounting for over 49% of the total ESV. Support service function was second, accounting for over 34%. (4) The total ESV had a strong negative correlation with Shannon's diversity index (SHDI) and Shannon's evenness index(SHEI), a significant positive correlation with Contagion index (CONTAG). (5)The Human Activity Index (HAI) had a significant impact on changes in ESV, with an influence value of 0.6192, and its synergistic effect with NDVI further enhances this impact, achieving a synergy score of 0.71. Additionally, natural factors such as topography and climate also had significant effects on ESV changes.This study provides an evidence-based theoretical reference to guide the enhancement of the natural environment of the FRB and maintain highquality development of regional landscapes.

Ontological Analysis to understand the Interplay between Ecosystem Services, Human Well-being, and Climate Change

This study employs an ontological analysis to critically examine the integration of ecosystem services and human well-being within the context of climate change. The principal objective is to identify research gaps within the existing literature and to propose potential avenues for future research. Our findings reveal significant deficiencies in policy, legal, and procedural frameworks, with a predominant focus on local-level case studies and objective measures of well-being. Notably, cultural and supporting services remain underexplored. These gaps highlight the need for comprehensive research incorporating diverse stakeholder perspectives, adaptive capabilities, and robust policy frameworks to enhance resilience against climate change. The study underscores the urgent need for broader and more inclusive investigations to effectively inform policy-making and sustainable management practices.

Economic valuation of changes in ecosystem services of 77 Ramsar wetlands in West Asia over 37 years (1984–2021)

Summary In the West Asia region, the vulnerability of Ramsar Convention wetlands due to unsustainable utilization driven by water scarcity continues to grow. Here, a global surface water product generated by the European Joint Research Centre was used to assess changes in surface water in 77 wetlands listed under the Ramsar Convention over a 37-year period (1984–2021). By combining this product with a quantitative valuation model, estimates were made of the economic value of the ecosystem services provided by these wetlands, enabling the determination of the economic losses resulting from any reduction in surface water. We show that 20% (7550 km2) of permanent surface waters in Ramsar sites have disappeared or are no longer classified as permanent. Based on this, USD 106 billion of the economic value of wetlands ecosystem services have been lost. Additionally, 33% (12 100 km2) of seasonal surface waters in these wetlands have experienced a decrease in area. Iran and Iraq account for 90% of water losses, primarily in 34 wetlands (30 in Iran and 4 in Iraq). These findings underscore the urgent need for water management policies and conservation strategies in the West Asia region.

Dynamic land cover and ecosystem service changes in global coastal deltas under future climate scenarios

Coastal deltas, housing 4.5% of the global population, face profound shifts due to climate change and intensified human activities. This study utilizes the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) for detailed land cover dynamics and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs (InVEST) models for ecosystem services assessment, focusing on 46 global coastal deltas under future scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Our findings reveal a 145% increase in urban areas from 1995 to 2015, with expected continuations in urban sprawl. Grassland and barren areas are projected to diminish by up to 15% and 5%, respectively, with urban areas potentially expanding by up to 39% across scenarios. Significant decreases in surface water yield under SSP245 and SSP585 could challenge water sustainability. Moreover, a universal decline in carbon storage necessitates enhanced carbon sequestration strategies. Soil retention is anticipated to decline, leading to increased erosion risks, while habitat quality varies, improving in 29 deltas under SSP126 but worsening in 33 under SSP245 and SSP585. These insights underscore the urgency of strategic, adaptive land use planning to bolster ecosystem services, directly supporting the United Nations' Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development and advancing global sustainable delta management.

Multi-Scale Analysis of Ecosystem Service Trade-Offs/Synergies in the Yangtze River Delta

The transformation of ecosystem structure leads to changes in ecosystem services (ESs) and their relationship. However, most research in this area has focused on particular scales and timeframes, often overlooking the significance of spatial and temporal variations. Therefore, we used the equivalent value method to evaluate seven typical ESs in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) between 2000 and 2020: food production (FP), water supply (WS), climate regulation (CR), environmental purification (EP), soil conservation (SC), biodiversity maintenance (BM), and aesthetic landscape (AL). We further employed the Spearman correlation coefficient and bivariate Moran’s I to evaluate the relationship of ESs and their spatial heterogeneity at grid, township, county and city scales. Our results show that (1) All ESs except AL exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2020, resulting in a total increase in ecosystem service (ES) value of RMB 650.63 billion. (2) Approximately 70% of the ES pairs demonstrated a synergistic relationship, with the exception of FP and other ESs, which mainly showed a trade-off. (3) With the scale increased from grid to city level, the degree of trade-off between FP and other ESs strengthened at different levels, while the synergy degree of among other ESs gradually decreased. (4) The relationship between ESs demonstrated strong spatial heterogeneity, with FP and other ESs exhibiting trade-offs primarily in the northern and southern YRD, while other ES pairs exhibited mostly synergy in these regions. This study provides scientific information for governments to optimize land use distribution and improve ESs.

The Integrated Analysis of Territorial Transformations in Inland Areas of Italy: The Link between Natural, Social, and Economic Capitals Using the Ecosystem Service Approach

This paper examines how spatial dynamics have impacted natural capital and the provision of ecosystem services. The units outlined by the National Strategy for Inland Areas (SNAI) have been used as the territorial units for this study. The SNAI is a public policy focused on enhancing the quality of services to citizens (such as transportation, healthcare, and education). It proposes the economic revitalization of inland areas undergoing processes of marginalization. Our focus on inland areas stems from two primary reasons: first, no previous studies in Italy have analyzed the changes in ecosystem services in SNAI areas; and second, SNAI areas are well-suited to providing ecosystem services that are in demand by urban areas. Although this study does not cover all aspects inherent to the topic, it represents a starting point aimed at understanding the links between environmental and socio-economic dynamics and ecosystem service changes. This is essential for both current and future generations. By analyzing the processes of permanence and transformation, modifications in the supply–demand balance have hereby been studied, as well as the economic variations in ecosystem services. The period considered runs from 1990 to 2018. These findings could help governmental institutions in developing sustainable governance models, in line with spatial policies and strategies.

Rapid Analysis of Soil Organic Carbon in Agricultural Lands: Potential of Integrated Image Processing and Infrared Spectroscopy

The significance of soil in the agricultural industry is profound, with healthy soil representing an important role in ensuring food security. In addition, soil is the largest terrestrial carbon sink on earth. The soil carbon pool is composed of both inorganic and organic forms. The equilibrium of the soil carbon pool directly impacts the carbon cycle via all of the other processes on the planet. With the development of agricultural systems from traditional to conventional ones, and with the current era of precision agriculture, which involves making decisions based on information, the importance of understanding soil is becoming increasingly clear. The control of microenvironment conditions and soil fertility represents a key factor in achieving higher productivity in these systems. Furthermore, agriculture represents a significant contributor to carbon emissions, a topic that has become timely given the necessity for carbon neutrality. In addition to these concerns, updating soil-related data, including information on macro and micronutrient conditions, is important. Carbon represents one of the major nutrients for crops and plays a key role in the retention and release of other nutrients and the management of soil physical properties. Despite the importance of carbon, existing analytical methods are complex and expensive. This discourages frequent analyses, which results in a lack of soil carbon-related data for agricultural fields. From this perspective, in situ soil organic carbon (SOC) analysis can provide timely management information for calibrating fertilizer applications based on the soil–carbon relationship to increase soil productivity. In addition, the available data need frequent updates due to rapid changes in ecosystem services and the use of extensive fertilizers and pesticides. Despite the importance of this topic, few studies have investigated the potential of image analysis based on image processing and spectral data recording. The use of spectroscopy and visual color matching to develop SOC predictions has been considered, and the use of spectroscopic instruments has led to increased precision. Our extensive literature review shows that color models, especially Munsell color charts, are better for qualitative purposes and that Cartesian-type color models are appropriate for quantification. Even for the color model, spectroscopy data could be used, and these data have the potential to improve the precision of measurements. On the other hand, mid-infrared radiation (MIR) and near-infrared radiation (NIR) diffuse reflection has been reported to have a greater ability to predict SOC. Finally, this article reports the availability of inexpensive portable instruments that can enable the development of in situ SOC analysis from reflection and emission information with the integration of images and spectroscopy. This integration refers to machine learning algorithms with a reflection-oriented spectrophotometer and emission-based thermal images which have the potential to predict SOC without the need for expensive instruments and are easy to use in farm applications.

Identification of priority conservation areas in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei using multi-scenario trade-offs based on different spatial scales and their drivers

Identifying priority conservation areas (PCAs) on the basis of ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs is a crucial step in achieving optimal ecosystem management in the BTH, noting the complex spatio-temporal and scaling effects inherent in these ecosystems. A cross-scale quantification of spatial and temporal changes in ecosystem services and their correlations was conducted in the BTH. Furthermore, the Ordered Weighting Algorithm (OWA) was introduced to simulate a variety of scenarios in order to determine the PCAs and to explore the drivers of ES in the PCAs. The results indicated that Food supply (FS), Water yield (WY), and Soil retention (SR) in the BTH increased by 16.4 × 104t/hm2, 81.81 mm, and 37081.29 t/hm2, respectively. In contrast, Carbon storage (CS) and Habit quality (HQ) exhibited a decrease of 0.01 t/hm2 and 0.03. Spatially, the high-value areas of ESs at the county scale exhibited greater clustering. At the county scale, there were two trade-offs and eight synergies in 2000, and four trade-offs and six synergies by 2020. In contrast, at the raster scale, there were two trade-offs and eight synergies from 2000 to 2020. The mechanisms of change were similar and exhibited spatial heterogeneity. Scenario 6 represents the optimal priority conservation area, exhibiting the most balanced conservation efficiency of each ecosystem service. This scenario enables the simultaneous conservation of multiple ESs. The natural factors within the PCAs exert a stronger influence on ESs than socio-economic factors. The inclusion of interacting factor effects will enhance the explanatory power of the drivers. The findings of this study can serve as a theoretical foundation for cross-scale ecosystem service management decisions.

Impact of changing urban form and production-living-ecological space on changing ecosystem services of a smart city of Eastern India, Durgapur.

Worldwide land use land cover (LULC) transformation become a serious issue in the last few decades due to its immense importance in environmental and human well-being perspectives. Expansion of urban areas at the expense of natural land covers and changing urban form is mainly responsible for changing environmental conditions. This study focused on identifying the impacts of LULC change on environmental conditions through the assessment of changing ecosystem services (ESs) of the Durgapur Municipal Corporation (DMC) from 1990 to 2020. Changing ESs are assessed based on changing urban forms and production-living-ecological space (PLES) components. Results found that the compactness of urban areas is increasing along with the outward expansion. The core urban area of DMC has risen from 8.11% to 30.11% during 1990-2020. Similarly, living space increased from 15.57% to 42.60%, production space decreased from 53.06% to 25.59%, and ecological space fluctuated from 1990 to 2020. This transformation of PLES components negatively affects DMC's environmental condition, affecting the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These significant results may be utilized to understand changing environmental conditions and priority issues for DMC's future sustainable urban development.

Contrasted trends of intertidal macroalgal communities and sharp decline of canopy-forming species across two decades

Macroalgal communities are essential to coastal ecosystems, yet increasing effects of global change and anthropogenic pressures are leading to their global decline. Investigating the long-term dynamics of these communities across different localities appears crucial to better understand their responses to such pressures, as our knowledge of spatial heterogeneities in macroalgal trajectories remains elusive. To fill this gap, the community trajectory analysis framework provides a set of innovative multivariate metrics to characterize and quantitatively compare the temporal dynamics of different communities. Using long-term monitoring data (2004-2022), this method was applied to intertidal macroalgal communities across 10 locations distributed over more than 500 km of coastline in Brittany, France. Three distinct temporal dynamics were identified. High-shore communities exhibited minimal changes over time, while low-shore communities were characterized by a fluctuating understorey species composition but a general stability pattern. In contrast, the mid-shore community dominated by Ascophyllum nodosum underwent conspicuous changes in composition and structure. Further analysis of the latter community unveiled clear spatial patterns, with a significant deterioration of the structural state attributed to canopy loss in eastern Brittany, negatively impacting understorey species. This decline may ultimately lead to massive changes in coastal ecosystem functioning and services. This study emphasizes the importance of maintaining long-term ecological monitoring as well as the pertinence of temporal trajectories methods to identify and understand community changes at various spatial scales.

Constructing a Bayesian belief network to provide insights into the dynamic drivers of ecosystem service relationships

Vegetation restoration has induced complex spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem service (ES) relationships. However, dynamic analysis on the driving mechanisms underlying ES relationships remains insufficient, constraining the comprehension on sustainable vegetation restoration. In this study, a comprehensive index (ESI) representing the coordination among four ESs (carbon sequestration, water yield, baseflow regulation, and soil conservation) was quantified in Yan’an City, a typical vegetation restoration area. Using the Bayesian belief network, a social-ecological framework was constructed to explore changes in driving factors of ESI during 1990 to 2020. The results revealed that: (1) the coordination of ES relationships showed a significant enhancement over the past 30 years, which primarily attributed to areas with the highest values of water yield. Areas with low values of baseflow regulation posed a risk to the ESI. (2) The combined contribution of FVC and precipitation was consistently close to 70 %, emerging as the dominant driving factors for the ESI. But in the last decade, contributions from human activities have increased significantly. (3) Scenario reasoning highlighted that expanding vegetation cover alone would exhibit threshold effects on the ESI improvement. Additionally, the results revealed a promising prospect of enhancing baseflow and maintaining the ESI through human actions. This study provides an example of using Bayesian belief network to analyze social-ecological interactions, enhancing the understanding of changes in ES relationships under vegetation restoration.