Changes In Ecosystem Service Values Research Articles

Response of Ecosystem Services to Land Use Change in Madagascar Island, Africa: A Multi-Scale Perspective.

"Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC)" is increasingly being affected by ecosystem services value. LULCC patterns have been subjected to significant changes over time, primarily due to an ever-increasing population. It is rare to attempt to analyze the influence of such changes on a large variety of ecosystem benefits in Madagascar island. The economic value of ecosystem services in Madagascar island is evaluated throughout the period from 2000 to 2019. The expansion of the human population affects the changing value of ecosystem services directly. The PROBA-V SR time series 300 m spatial resolution cover of land datasets from the "Climate Change Initiative of the European Space Agency (ESA)" were used to measure the values of ecosystem activities and the changes in those values caused by land use. A value transfer method was used to evaluate the value of ecosystem services to land use changes on Madagascar island. The findings show that from 2000 to 2019, at the annual rate of 2.17 percent, Madagascar island's ecosystem service value (ESV) grew to 6.99 billion US dollars. The components that greatly contributed to the total change of ESV were waste treatment, genetic resources, food production, and habitat/refugia. These components in 2000 contributed 21.27%, 20.20%, 17.38%, and 13.80% of the total ESV, and 22.55%, 19.76%, 17.29%, and 13.78% of the total ESV in 2019, respectively. Furthermore, it was found that there was a great change in LULCC. From 2000 to 2019, bare land, built-up land, cultivated land, savannah, and wetland increased while other LULCC types decreased. The sensitivity coefficient ranged from 0.649 to 1.000, <1, with forestland registering the highest values. Wetland is in the second position for the most important land cover category in Madagascar, considering the total value of the ecosystem. The value of ecosystem benefits per unit of the land area was higher on cultivated land, despite the relatively low fraction of cultivated land area across these eras. The sensitivity indices of seven land types from 2000 to 2019 were mapped to understand better the geographical distribution patterns of ESV's "equivalent value coefficient" (VC) across various land uses. It is suggested that the ESV should be included in Madagascar's government land-use plan to manage it effectively and efficiently with fewer negative effects on the ecosystem.

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Differentiation and Influencing Factors of Ecosystem Services in Resource-Based Cities in Semiarid Regions

The spatial-temporal differentiation characteristics and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services are of great significance for optimizing the pattern of land spatial protection and realizing regional sustainable development. Existing studies seldom consider the segmental influence mechanism of various influencing factors on different levels of ecosystem service value (ESV). Therefore, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial differentiation evolution characteristics of ESV in semiarid regions through an improved ESV evaluation model. The spatial panel quantile regression (SPQR) model was introduced to explore the relationship between various types of influencing factors and ESV in different intervals. The results showed the following: (1) The changes in ESV in Baotou City from 2000 to 2018 tended to be stable, but the spatial differentiation of ESV intensified. The aggregation feature of the low-ESV region is significant and gradually expanding. (2) Precipitation was the dominant factor increasing the ESV in each interval, and temperature had a significant negative impact on the low-ESV area. (3) Higher land use integrity accelerates the decline of ESV in the surrounding areas of built-up areas. The high-ESV area was more sensitive to the intensity of human activity. The direction of human activities should be effectively controlled, and the structure of comprehensive land use should be optimized to enhance the service function of regional ecosystems. This research provides new thinking for the ecological restoration zoning of regional territorial spatial planning and the sustainable development of resource-based cities.

Land use/land cover dynamics driven changes in woody species diversity and ecosystem services value in tropical rainforest frontier: A 20-year history

Land use/land cover (LULC) change is a prominent problem in tropical forests. However, the fundamental question of how much woody species diversity was lost and ecosystem services value (ESV) changed in response to LULC conversion has rarely been studied. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the impact of LULC change on woody species diversity and ecosystem service value in the last two decades in the tropical rainforest frontier taking the case of Sheka Forest Biosphere Reserve (SFBR), Southwest Ethiopia. Supervised image classification with a maximum likelihood approach was employed and 90 quadrants were laid for the woody species inventory. Diversity indices and descriptive statistics were computed and the non-parametric test (Kruskal-Wallis) was used to test the effect of LULC change on woody species diversity. The benefit transfer method was used to estimate the monetary value of ecosystem services adopting coefficients from empirical studies. The woody species richness, diversity, and evenness varied (X2 = 71.887, p < 0.05) across LULC types. The highest diversity was observed in the forest followed by cropland, coffee plantation, homegarden, and tea plantation. The estimated total ecosystem service value (ESV) was reduced by 21.56% from 309.11 million US$ in 1999 to 242.47 million US$ in 2020. Transition to mono-crop like tea plantations to maximize income not only altered native woody species but also induced the expansion of exotic species and reduced ESV, indicating a detrimental impact of LULC change on ecosystem integrity and stability in the future. Although LULC conversion destruct woody species diversity, cropland, coffee plantation and the homegardens were the refuge for some endemic and conservation priority species. Further, addressing contemporary challenges of LULC conversion through introducing mechanisms such as payment for ecosystem services that increase the economic and livelihood benefits of natural forests to local communities is important. Effective conservation and sustainable use approaches in which such species are systematically integrated into land use practices have to be planned and implemented. This could contribute to strengthening the conservation effectiveness of the SFBR of UNESCO and serve as a showcase for such conservation areas around the globe. The LULC challenges, particularly those emanating from local livelihood needs, could impede our efforts to conserve biodiversity, jeopardize the reliability of future projections, and have an impact on the conservation of threatened ecosystems, if it is not adequately addressed in time.

Effects of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Service Value in Xiangjiang River Basin, China

The study of land use and land cover (LULC) change and the evolution of ecosystem service values (ESV) is important for optimizing the allocation of regional land resources and achieving sustainable development, but traditional land use analysis methods cannot dig deeper into the information on the internal transitions between different land types. Therefore, in this paper, we use the component analysis and Intensity Analysis methods to systematically analyze the land use landscape changes at multiple levels. In addition, the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of ESV in the Xiangjiang River Basin are carved with the help of equivalence factors and GIS spatial analysis methods, which reveal the response of ESV changes to land use changes in the Xiangjiang River Basin in the past four decades. Our results showed that, (1) in the past 40 years, the intensity of land use change in the Xiangjiang River Basin has been increasing, mainly in quantity and shift. The increase of built-up and bare land and the decrease of cultivated land are stable and active, and the loss of forest land is large, but it is dormant. The loss of cultivated and forested land flows mainly to built-up land. (2) In the Xiangjiang River Basin, ESV increases first and then decreases, mainly in the middle and high grades and changes faster in the east. (3) The cross-sensitivity coefficient reflected that the net conversion of cultivated land to forest land and water area had a promoting effect on ESV. Our results provide important knowledge to inform land use decisions and facilitate sustainable development in the Xiangjiang River Basin.

Research on the change of alpine ecosystem service value and its sustainable development path

Alpine ecosystems play an important role in maintaining carbon sequestration, water balance, ecological security, biodiversity and human well-being. However, climate change and high-intensity human activities lead to the continuous degradation of vulnerable alpine ecosystems. Based on this, we reveal trends in ecosystem change in the Qilian Mountains of China on a 40-year scale and identify the primary driving factors of change in alpine ecosystems from the perspective of ecosystem service value (ESV) change, providing a more comprehensive picture of the interactions between human society and natural ecosystem. The results showed that more than 55 % of ecosystem types changed from 1980 to 2018, with forests, grasslands, glaciers and bare land being the most vulnerable ecosystems to disturbance, and forest and grassland ecosystems having significant ESV potential (43.99 % and 29.57 %, respectively). However, significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes over the last decade have led to a reduction in ESV stability in alpine ecosystems, where human activities have a more significant impact on ESV of sparse woodland, shrubland and grassland ecosystem at 2800–4000 m. The temperature rise had a more noticeable impact on the ESV of glaciers, alpine meadows and bare land ecosystems at 4000–5500 m. In the long terms, climate change and population growth will threaten the restoration and management of alpine ecosystems. Different ecological development strategies need to be adopted along the altitude, and the establishment of cross regional horizontal ecological compensation mechanism should be accelerated to promote the sustainable development of ecology and people’s livelihood in mountainous areas. The results of this study will provide relevant theoretical basis and reference for decision makers, and provide a model for scientific management and sustainable development of alpine ecosystem resources worldwide.

Changes in Land Use and Ecosystem Service Values of Dunhuang Oasis from 1990 to 2030

Maintaining the integrity and stability of oasis ecosystems is an important topic in the field of ecological research. Assessment of ecosystem services and their changes can provide important support for the sustainable development of oases. This study took the Dunhuang oasis in the hyper-arid area as the research object and used 1990, 2010, and 2020 Landsat series satellite images to complete the land use interpretation by random forest classification. Then we estimated the ecosystem services value (ESV) by using benefit transfer method, and predicted the trend of ecosystem service value changes under three scenarios using the Analytic Hierarchy Process method and the patch generation land use simulation model (AHP-PLUS model). The results showed that the vegetation areas of the Dunhuang Oasis first decreased and then increased during 1990–2020. The decrease was largely due to the expansion of built-up land and farmland, and the increase was mainly contributed by the implementation of ecological protection policies. The path of changes in the ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis during 1990–2020 was well consistent with that of vegetation areas, with a maximum of 9068.15×106 yuan (in 1990) and a minimum of 6271.46×106 yuan (in 2010). Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that urbanization reduced ESV, and the implementation of ecological policies enhanced ESV. The ESV of the Dunhuang Oasis for the year 2030 under the ecological conservation scenario could reach 7631.07×106 yuan, which is 381.1×106 yuan higher that under the economic development scenario. The ecological conservation scenario is the optimal option to achieve sustainable development of the Dunhuang Oasis. We suggested that the government should continuously enhance the protection of forests and waterbodies, reasonably restrict production and domestic water consumption, and efficiently increase the proportion of ecological water consumption. In addition, this study improved the evaluation method of oasis ESV based on the proportion of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of grasslands with different coverage, which is important for improving the environment in arid areas.

Variations in Ecosystem Service Value and Its Driving Factors in the Nanjing Metropolitan Area of China

More than 60% of the world’s ecosystem services have deteriorated over the past few decades. Studying the spatio-temporal fluctuations in ecosystem service value and its influencing factors is important for identifying regional ecosystem service value issues, upholding regional ecological harmony, and encouraging regionally healthy and coordinated sustainable development. Ecosystem service value has so far been studied primarily in relation to the effect of socioeconomic and physical–geographical variables. However, the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem service values also drive the spatio-temporal variations in ecosystem service value. Few studies have been conducted to date to investigate the trade-offs and synergies between ecosystem service values and their impact on ecosystem service value. Therefore, this paper used sensitivity analysis, correlation analysis, trade-offs and synergies analysis, and a Geodetector to examine changes in ecosystem service value and their influencing factors within the Nanjing metropolitan region. The ecosystem service value decreased somewhat overall between 2000 and 2020, with a decline rate of 2.19 million CNY/year. In comparison to the north of the Nanjing metropolitan region, the ecosystem service value was relatively higher in the south. The water bodies had the highest total ecosystem service value, followed by forest land, cultivated land, and grassland, with construction land and unused land having the lowest ecosystem service values overall. The main socioeconomic factor influencing the spatial variations in ecosystem service value was population density, while the main physical–geographical factors were the digital elevation model, the normalized difference vegetation index, and precipitation. As a result, the Nanjing metropolitan area should tighten its grip on excessive population growth. In contrast to the expository strength of a single factor on the ecosystem service value, the influence of all individual elements on the ecosystem service value under interaction was significantly increased, and the interaction among the normalized difference vegetation index and gross economic product had the most obvious effect on the ecosystem service value. The spatial variation in the ecosystem service value was also influenced by trade-offs and synergies between the value of supply services, regulation services, support services, and cultural services. Therefore, trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services also need to be considered in land-use decisions.

Impact of Land cover Dynamics on Ecosystem services value of Siwalik range of Madhesh Province Nepal

The Siwalik region is the area that lies between the hills in the north and Terai in the south. It provides a wide range of services and is of particular interest from a land use land cover (LULC) change perspective as it is naturally fragile and prone to degradation. The study was conducted in Madhesh Province Siwalik to assess the LULC change over three time periods and to quantify the change in ecosystem services value (ESV) due to LULC change. Remote sensing, Google Earth Engine and Arc GIS were used to prepare the land cover map. In 2000, 2010 and 2020 total area covered by the forest was 68.46%, 65.58% and 71.17%, agriculture was 16.50%, 18.21% and 16.21% and waterbodies were 4.40%, 3.89% and 3.79% respectively. From 2000-2010 forest and waterbodies decreased by 3.87%, and 0.54% respectively whereas agriculture and other land increased by 1.7% and 2.71% respectively. Similarly, from 2010 to 2020, agriculture, water bodies, and other land decreased by 1.99%, 0.10%, and 4.48% whereas forests increased by 6.58% respectively. The overall accuracy of the map is 90%, 89% and 88% for the years 2000, 2010 and 2020. The ESV was estimated using the value transfer method, which was 28 million USD/year, 26.84 million USD/year, and 28.97 million USD/year in 2000, 2010 and 2020, which showed that the total ESV has decreased by 1.16 and increased by 2.12 million USD from 2000-2020. An elasticity indicator shows 1% of land conversion in Siwalik resulted in 0.47 % and 0.21 % changes in ESVs during the two periods, respectively. Overall findings of this study, suggest that ESV has increased in the Siwalik region of Madhesh province in the last two decades, primarily due to an increase in forest cover. This increase should be taken as an opportunity to leverage policy support and programmatic implementation to increase forest cover and reduce land conversion

Integrating Spatial Heterogeneity into an Analysis between Ecosystem Service Value and Its Driving Factors: A Case Study of Dalian, China

Human demand for natural resources has grown, leading to ecological debasement and related ecological system administration. Using Dalian as an example, we estimated the changes in the ecosystem service value (ESV) in 2005 and 2020. We used ArcGIS and spatial statistics to conduct estimations and change analyses of the ESV. Based on the results of the ESV, the geographical detector and geographically weighted regression (GWR) elucidated the contributions of different driving factors of the ESV in a 2 km grid. In summary, these results indicated that: (1) from a holistic perspective, the ESV of Dalian fell by 206.8009 billion CNY over 15 years, and the hot spots were concentrated in both the northern and the western parts, whereas the cold spots were distributed in the central part; (2) according to the results from the geographical detector, land use structure factors influenced the ESV most significantly, followed by socio-economic factors, and the impact of natural factors was relatively small; and (3) according to the results of the GWR, land use structure factors negatively affected the ESV, and the positive impact of the proportion of the natural land area was the most obvious. We conclude that the decline in the ESV reflects the impact of human activities on the ecosystem in the studied landscape. Understanding ESV changes should be made a priority in ecosystem management, and evaluating ESV drivers can contribute to developing land use strategies for policy-making.

Response of Ecosystem Service Value to Landscape Pattern Changes under Low-Carbon Scenario: A Case Study of Fujian Coastal Areas

Assessing the influence of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) is critical for developing land-use polies and increasing ecosystem services. The data sources include remote-sensing image data and statistical yearbooks from 2000, 2010, and 2020. This study employs the patch-generating land-use simulation model, landscape pattern index, and ecological service value estimation to analyse the changes in landscape patterns and ESV in Fujian coastal areas over the last 20 years. The landscape pattern and ESV in the future (2050) are then simulated under the low-carbon scenario (LCS), with the natural development scenario (NDS) serving as a comparison. The results show that: (1) the most noticeable changes from 2000 to 2020 are the reduced cultivated land area and the rapid expansion of construction land area. By 2050, construction land will account for 7.67% of the total land area under LCS, whereas NDS will account for 9.45%, and changes in the landscape pattern indices all indicate there will be greater variety and fragmentation of the landscape, with the NDS being more serious than the LCS; (2) From 2000–2020, the total ESV value showed a decreasing trend. In 2050, the ESV under the LCS will be 122.387 billion yuan, which is higher than the 121.434 billion yuan under the NDS. Regulating services contribute the most to the total ESV, followed by support services; and (3) In the past 20 years, except for a slight increase in water area, the ESV of other landscapes has decreased, with a net decrease of 3.134 billion yuan in total. The R2 fitting between the area change of cultivated and construction land and the total ESV reached 0.9898 and 0.9843, respectively. The correlations between ESV and landscape indices indicate that landscape pattern changes significantly impact ESV. Simulating ESV in LCS can provide guidance for optimising landscape patterns, promoting the benign operation of the regional ecosystem, and achieving sustainable ecological development.

Spatial–Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value in Yunnan Based on Land Use

Exploring the changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use transition is important for regional ecological protection. According to the land use data from 2000 to 2020, the alterations in the land use and ESV in Yunnan over the past 20 years were calculated and analyzed. At the same time, spatial autocorrelation analysis was established to analyze the spatial relationships of ESV in 16 states and cities. The results show that from 2000 to 2020, cultivated land, grassland and unused land are on a decreasing trend, while forest land, water body and built-up land are on an increasing trend, with the largest change in built-up land. The total ESV is on an increasing trend, with water supply, gas regulation, climate regulation, environmental purification and hydrological regulation being the highest value of individual services. Spatially, the total ESV showed that high levels were in the northwest, southwest and east, and low levels were in the northeast, west and central parts. At the same time, it shows a positive spatial correlation with a weakening trend. It is dominated by high–high cluster and low–low cluster. The change in the value of ecological services in forest land, grassland and water body have a greater impact on the change in total service value in the region, and was the main contributing and sensitive factor.

Impacts of land use and land cover change on ecosystem service values in the Afroalpine area of Guna Mountain, Northwest Ethiopia

Ecosystem service changes caused by land use and land cover change (LULCC) is an important indictor and early warning of ecological changes. However, few attempts have been made to evaluate the effects of LULCC on ecosystem services in the Afroalpine highlands of Northwestern Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the impacts of LULCC on ecosystem services values in the afro-alpine area of Guna Mountain, Northwestern Ethiopia. Image classification was carried out using Landsat imageries of 1995, 2008, and 2020 following Random Forest algorithm with Google Earth Engine(GEE) based on filtered sample points. A modified benefit transfer method was used to evaluate ecosystem service value (ESV) changes in response to LULCC. The results revealed that the most notable feature of LULCC in the afro-alpine area of Guna Mountain was the expansion of cropland and built-up areas at the expense of grassland, forest, and shrubland. The overall ESV of the study site was estimated at USD 46.97 × 106 in 1995, USD 36.77 × 106 in 2008, and USD 37.19 × 106 in 2020. The net ESVs of the study site declined by USD 9.78 × 106 between 1995 and 2020. The regulating service values accounted for the greatest share, accounting for over 42% in all periods, followed by provisioning and supporting service values, which accounted for over 29% and 13%, respectively, while cultural services accounted for the smallest amount of the total ESV. The ecosystem service value of food production experienced the highest increase. However, the values of the remaining 16 types of ecosystem services declined with varying degrees of reduction over the study periods. The results of this study is necessary for land-use planners and decision-makers who require site-specific information on impacts of LULCC on ecosystem service.

Temporal and spatial changes in land use and ecosystem service value based on SDGs' reports: a case study of Dianchi Lake Basin, China.

Understanding the impact of land use and ecosystem services on sustainable development goals is a key to achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). Taking Dianchi Lake Basin as the research area, land use data from five periods, 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2019, were analyzed using the dynamic equivalent method to determine ecosystem service value (ESV) and hot spot analysis method to explore temporal and spatial changes in ESV in Dianchi Lake Basin. Three sustainable development goals, SDG15.1.1, SDG15.2, and SDG15.3.1, were selected to quantitatively analyze the impact of land use change in Dianchi Lake Basin. The results showed that (1) in the 20-year study period, the main land use types in Dianchi Lake Basin were forest land, cultivated land, construction land, and water area. In the land transfer, the largest amount of land transferred out is cultivated land, accounting for 35.50% of the total transferred out amount. It is transferred to construction land, resulting in significant expansion of construction land, nearly twice as much. (2) The SDG15.1.1 index of three forest land types in Dianchi Lake Basin showed a downward trend, and the total forest land decreased from 45.36 to 41.80%, with a cumulative decrease of 3.56%, of which 2.35% was caused by the transformation from open forest land to other land types. For watershed SDG15.2 and SDG15.3.1 indicators, all were degraded, but the degradation of high forest (SDG15.2) was the most obvious. (3) From 2001 to 2019, the total ESV in Dianchi Lake Basin initially decreased and then increased before decreasing again, with an overall decrease of 3.687 billion yuan. The ESV in the study area was high in the middle and low in the periphery, and the water area dominated by Dianchi Lake was the highest value area. (4) From 2005 to 2019, the spatial displacement relationship between cold and hot spots dominated by Dianchi Lake was corresponding and obvious, during which the ESV fluctuated violently. This study provides a basis for the sustainable development and ecological construction in typical urbanized watershed.

Targeting the Influences of Under-Lake Coal Mining Based on the Value of Wetland Ecosystem Services: What and How?

Under the growing restrictions of the Chinese eco-environmental policies, the impact of under-lake coal mining on wetlands is receiving increasing attention from both coal mining enterprises and local governments. This paper focuses on the impact of under-lake coal mining on the Nansi Lake wetland from 1991 to 2021. Field measurements, resident surveys, and remote sensing inversion were comprehensively employed to quantitatively assess the impact. The calculation of the assessment indicators refers to the elastic coefficient, the information for which comes from four major categories of ecosystem service values (ESVs) and eight sub-ESVs. According to the results of the remote sensing interpretation and inversion, by 2021 the range had enlarged by 32.3 km2, and the water depth had increased by 1.9 m in the mining-disturbed area relative to 1991. The ESV fluctuations in the Nansi Lake wetland also exhibited a generally increasing trend over time. Our results show that the under-lake mining disturbs the ESVs, but the disturbance is not sufficient to result in significant consequences. Based on the data analysis, we suggest several well-directed, appropriate restoration strategies to achieve the desired objectives and target the response of the ESV changes. Such measures will help to relieve some of the anxiety and concern about the wetland changes caused by the under-lake mining.

Trade-offs and synergistic relationships of ecosystem services under land use change in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020: A Bayesian network analysis

Ecosystem service value (ESV) refers to the value of benefits provided by the ecosystem to people, and can reflect the quality of regional ecological environment. There have been few studies on ESV in arid regions experiencing dramatic land use changes. Also, many past ESV studies have obtained distorted results by using a simple linear function to examine the trade-offs between driving factors. This study quantified ESV in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020 based on value equivalent method. Differences in ESV among ecosystem services in Xinjiang under different scenarios were simulated using a Bayesian network model. The results demonstrated land use changes in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, with construction land expanding the most significantly (dynamic index: 224.63 %), whereas grassland area decreased (dynamic index: −1.31 %) due to transformation to unused and cultivated land. ESV in Xinjiang presented an N-shaped variation trend from 1990 to 2020 and decreased by 309.6 × 108 CNY, with a variation rate of −20.35 %. The rank of the four categories of ecological services from 1990 to 2020 in terms of ESV was: regulating services > support services > cultural services > supply services. There was a gradual reduction in ESV in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020. The rank of the different regions in terms of the reduction in ESV was: Northern Xinjiang (295.24 × 108 CNY) > Southern Xinjiang (280.94 × 108 CNY) > Eastern Xinjiang (109.76 × 108 CNY). Land use change was a direct driver of changes in ESV, whereas natural and social factors, such as precipitation, temperature, population, and policy factors, were indirect drivers. This study can act as a reference for sustainable management of ecosystem services in arid regions.

Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development

Uncertainties about the future extent of sea-level rise (SLR) and socioeconomic development will determine the future of coastal ecosystem services and values. This study analyzes the joint impact of flooding and socioeconomic development on the future ecosystem services and values in the Atlantic coastal zone by 2100. To this end, flood probability maps (using the Uncertainty Bathtub Model; uBTM) and local ecosystem service value (ESV) estimates (using meta-analytic based global ecosystem service value functions for Provisioning, Regulating & maintenance, and Cultural ecosystem services across 12 biomes) are derived for a wide combination of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to obtain future values of coastal ecosystem services (ES). Results show that the higher potential of ESV at risk is associated with RCP 8.5 and SSP5, i.e. the scenario associated with a narrative related to fossil-fueled development. For this scenario, by 2100, the coastal zone with the highest probable losses in Provisioning ESV is Europe (∼5.9 € billion/year), for Regulating & maintenance ESV this is North America (∼6.0 € billion/year) and for Cultural ESV this is South America (∼21.3 € billion/year). Countries facing highest relative risk of losing Provisioning ESV are the Netherlands (10.6 %), United States (7.4 %), and Mauritania (5.8 %). For Regulating & maintenance ESV, the top 3 countries impacted are Mauritania (17.6 %), the Netherlands (10.0 %) and Argentina (8.0 %). For Cultural ESV, the countries are Mexico (19.0 %), Denmark (18.1 %) and Sweden (15.6 %). Changes in ESV are exponentially related to flood risk and economic growth, such that small changes in flood or income lead to large changes in ESV. Unlike previous studies, the ESV functions used are dependent on time and local factors, such as population and income. Although population and income growth result in an increase in ESV, it also emphasizes the ecosystem service values at risk. Thus, sea-level rise and socioeconomic changes impact ecosystem services and values – directly affecting the well-being of the world population. The unequal distribution of coastal ecosystem service value losses across continents and countries highlighted in this work is important to identify what values are at risk and for whom. Adaptation measures and strategies can, in turn, be defined.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Driving Factors of Ecosystem Services Value in the Hexi Regions, Northwest China

Land-use and climate changes can exert significant influences on ecosystem services value (ESV). However, interactions of these drivers in shaping the ESV remain unclear in arid inland regions. In this study, dynamic changes in ESV from 1980 to 2050 in the Hexi Regions were evaluated by integrating land-use change and other environmental factors using the equivalent factor method, local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a geographical detector. Our results showed that the spatial distribution of ESV increased in the northwest to southeast regions of the study area. The area-weighted mean ESV of the Qilian Mountains (i.e., mountainous regions) was about 10.27–11.97-fold higher than that of the Hexi Corridor (i.e., plain regions) during the study period. As for the ecological protection (EP) scenario, from 2020 to 2050, the total ESV increase was estimated to be larger than that under the natural development (ND) and rapid urbanization (RU) scenarios. Particularly, under the EP scenario, by 2050, the enhancement of ESV in the Qilian Mountains mainly resulted from the expansion of forests, shrubs, grasslands, and water. The geographical detector indicated that LUCC was the dominant driver of the spatial heterogeneity of ESV, followed by climate and vegetation. Specifically, LUCC explained 35.39% and 80.06% of the total variation in the ESV for the Hexi Corridor and the Qilian Mountains, respectively. Natural drivers, such as temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil organic carbon, were assumed to exert larger impacts on ESV in the mountainous regions than in the corridor. By contrast, anthropogenic factors played more significant roles in altering the ESV patterns for the corridor. Our research highlighted the importance of ecological protection in improving ESV in the future and emphasized that the difference in driving factors of ESV between mountainous and plain regions should be considered in terms of the ecosystem management for the inland regions of northwestern China.

Valuation of Land-Use/Land-Cover-Based Ecosystem Services in Afghanistan—An Assessment of the Past and Future

Being one of the weakest economies in the world, livelihoods in Afghanistan remain highly dependent on local ecosystem services. However, the risk of ecosystem services degradation in Afghanistan over the past two decades has significantly increased, mainly due to rapid changes in land-use and land-cover (LULC). As such, policy makers must be able to estimate the impact of LULC changes on various ecosystem services. By utilizing GlobeLand30 land cover products for 2000, 2010 and 2020, and by adopting the value transfer method, this study assessed the ecosystem services value (ESV) changes in response to the changes of LULC in Afghanistan. Additionally, the dynamics of the land system (DLS) model was innovatively coupled with linear programming to predict likely scenarios of ESV changes by 2030. The predicted results were also validated against actual land cover and achieved a Kappa value of 0.78. The results showed that over the 20-year period, ecologically important LULC categories such as forest, water bodies and grassland were severely unstable and rapidly decreasing in scope. These LULC types were being threatened by agricultural, built-up and unused lands. During this period, we estimated a decrease in the total ESV from 161 billion USD in 2000 to 152.27 billion USD in 2020. About 92% of this decrease was shared by supporting and provisioning services. The simulated scenarios also showed that ESV will likely further decrease under Business-As-Usual (BAU), and Rapid Economic Development (RED) scenarios. Positively, an Environmental Protection (ENP) scenario is predicted, with a 4.5% increase in ESV by 2030. However, achieving this scenario requires the enforcement of strict environmental protection measures.

The impact of land use and land cover changes on the landscape pattern and ecosystem service value in Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Decades of intensifying human activities have caused dramatic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the ecologically fragile areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, which have led to significant changes in ecosystem service value (ESV). Taking the ecologically fragile Sanjiangyuan region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as the research object, we focused on understanding the impact of LULC changes on the Sanjiangyuan's landscape pattern and its corresponding ESV, which was combined with a Markov-Plus model to predict LULC changes in 2030. The results showed: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the LULC of Sanjiangyuan has changed to varying degrees, respectively. In the central and southern regions where animal husbandry is the mainstay activity, the area of grass land converted to bareland had expanded; (2) from 2000 to 2010, the total regional ESV increased sharply. However, the total amount of ESV decreased from 2010 to 2020; (3) the overall ESV in the study area was observed to be trending down and is expected to decrease by approximately 4.25 billion CNY by 2030; (4) the fragmentation and complexity of regional landscape patterns will negatively affect local ecosystem stability and biodiversity. Overall, there is a strong temporal and spatial correlation between LULC and ESV. This study will provide a reference for the local government to provide targeted and sustainable land management policies, thereby promoting the improvement of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regional ecology value.

Urban land use change simulation and spatial responses of ecosystem service value under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wuhan, China

Simulation of changes in ecosystem service value (ESV) caused by land use change in Wuhan under multiple scenarios is of great significance for ensuring urban ecological security and enhancing regional ecosystem service values. The city of Wuhan was selected as the study area, and the changes in land use and ESV in Wuhan over the past 31 years were analyzed and calculated based on five-phase remote sensing images and statistical yearbooks for 1990, 1998, 2006, 2014 and 2021. On this basis, the CA-Markov model and the multi objective planning (MOP) model were used to simulate the land use change in the study area in 2040 under four scenarios (natural development scenario, cultivated land protection scenario, ecological protection scenario and urban development scenario), and the total ESV was estimated under each scenario. The total value of ecosystem services was estimated under each scenario, and grid tools were applied to visualize the spatial distribution and degree of aggregation of ecosystem services. The results show that: (1) The most obvious feature of land use change in Wuhan from 1990 to 2021 is the sharp reduction in arable land area and the rapid expansion of build-up land area. Over the past 31 years, the arable land area decreased by 78322.4 hm2, and the build-up land area increased by 52559.28 hm2. (2) From 1990 to 2021, Wuhan’s total ESV at the five timepoints (1990, 1998, 2006, 2014, 2021) was 74.554 billion yuan, 71.512 billion yuan, 69.632 billion yuan, 73.433 billion yuan and 68.548 billion yuan, respectively. Overall, there has been a downward trend in volatility. (3) Under the four scenarios, the ESV in 2040 is projected to be 72.777 billion yuan, 70.969 billion yuan, 74.097 billion yuan or 70.620 billion yuan, respectively. Among them, the ecological protection scenario is the optimal simulation choice. (4) The cold and hot spots of ESV show an aggregated distribution over a large area, with the hot spots mainly concentrated in the central and southeastern parts of Wuhan and the cold spots mainly located in the northeastern and northwestern portions of Wuhan. Simulating the future land use change trends in Wuhan and exploring the responses of ecosystem service values under various scenarios are conducive to the construction of a new pattern of urban land space development and protection and can provide a scientific basis and a reference for decision-making for comprehensively promoting the sustainable development of Wuhan and other metropolitan areas in China in the future.