Changing Economic Conditions Research Articles

Declining interest in afforestation under the common agricultural policy. Evidence from Poland and Lithuania

Land afforestation is an important aspect of forested land development. Increasing the area of forest areas through the reforestation of uncultivated, abandoned or agriculturally unsuitable land is considered an important way to diversify economic activities in order to reduce dependence on agricultural activities and improve environmental conditions in rural areas. The main objective of the study is to identify the factors affecting the afforestation of agricultural land carried out in the years 2004–2020 by farmers under the individual financial perspectives of the Rural Development Programme (RDP) in Poland and Lithuania. The study included a review of Polish and Lithuanian regulations aimed at providing financial support for afforestation under the RDP. Moreover, a comparative analysis of the rules and criteria for financial support for afforestation in relation to selected socio-economic indicators of the two countries was carried out. Based on the study results, it can be clearly stated that in both Poland and Lithuania, the support for afforestation under the RDP fails to meet the beneficiaries’ expectations. It would, therefore, be advisable to adapt the Programme to the changing economic conditions and keep the afforested land under the RDP under technical supervision. Support for afforestation should be continued to ensure the improvement in land use and the enhancement of the prospects for long-term economic activity in rural areas as well as to implement the assumptions of the green economy.

Lockdown and Unrest: Inequality, Restrictions and Protests During COVID-19

This paper analyses how pre-pandemic levels of inequality across US counties have shaped the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the incidence of protests. The results from difference-in-differences and instrumental variable models using high-frequency weekly data show that more stringent measures to contain the pandemic increased the incidence of protests, but only in US counties with high levels of inequality before the start of the pandemic where grievances may have been initially stronger. The impact of government responses to COVID-19 on protests is largely explained by adverse changes in economic conditions in counties with the highest levels of pre-pandemic inequality. Policy stringency measures were also associated with more protests in the most unequal counties which voted for the Republican party in the 2016 elections and exhibited, at the start of the pandemic, lower levels of trust in the president and lower satisfaction with democracy.

Design and Art Tools Formation of Visual Context in Modern Anthropogenic Environment

The purpose of the article is to establish the design and artistic means of forming the cultural-artistic context of modern anthropogenic space. The research methodology involved the use of synthesis and analysis methods with the involvement of interdisciplinary connections (architecture, art history, cultural studies, psychology, design), which made it possible to develop the available theoretical and practical experience on the subject of the article; the method of theoretical generalisation was used to formulate conclusions regarding the outlined problem. The scientific novelty of the article lies in the fact that it actualises the issue of the role of the visual and plastic language of design in the formation of the communicative and cultural content of the anthropogenic environment. Conclusions. With the change of socio-cultural, political and economic conditions, people's requirements for their environment also change. Design and artistic techniques make it possible to dynamically adjust the visual context of the space, to modernise it. The visual plastic design language of the modern anthropogenic environment is presented in artistically decorated stationary and moving objects, their parts, which add character and individuality to it, cause certain emotions in people who interact with such a space. The presence of murals, graffiti, street stencils, sticker art, aerosol art, posters, photo wallpapers, knitted graffiti, mosaics, LED art, media facades, sculptures, video mapping contributes to the formation of a new visual context of the environment, 3D images. Unsystematic, chaotic formation of the visual context of the space can disrupt its artistic integrity. It is worth considering the location of the object, its role in the general structure of the environment, architectural, historical or ethnic context.

Globaloney: Extended Party Networks and the Dissemination of Anti-Globalization Insults

From where does discontent against globalization originate? Current explanations emphasize material conditions and the emergence of globalization-skeptical parties. We argue that party-affiliated factions play a critical but underappreciated role. Such factions provide foundational support for elite appeals, acting entrepreneurially to construct new narratives that are later invoked by elites. We test this by studying a unique case: the “globalist” insult on Twitter. We find that “globalist” mentions co-occur with hashtags and terms associated with right-wing conspiracies, “alt-right” media figures, and Donald Trump. We further find that the most consistent correlate of the “globalist” insult is its use by the alt-right media organization Breitbart, not by traditional political elites or in response to changes in economic conditions. The results suggest that a conceptualization of political parties as organizers of political conflict, specifically ones that incorporate factions and non-elite entities like partisan media, helps make sense of anti-globalization political movements.

All (economic) politics is local: Voting responses to localized price shocks during the great recession

AbstractThe connection between individual and macroeconomic conditions and voting behavior is well‐established. We contribute to the less resolved “spatial gap” in the literature that centers on how the localized economic conditions of where voters live influence their likelihood to vote. We test how space mediates the tension between voter mobilization and withdrawal in the face of economic shocks. We consider a scenario, the Great Recession, where economic shocks were quite localized and sudden, and compile an extensive dataset of all registered voters in the four‐county Tampa metropolitan area between 2006 and 2015. Using sales prices and property characteristics from the tax assessor rolls, we estimate a neighborhood‐level shock to housing values induced by the Great Recession. Results show that when we do not account for local neighborhood variation, the Great Recession is associated with a significant decrease in voter turnout. However, when we account for localized economic shocks, we find that residents in neighborhoods with negative price shocks were more likely to vote after the Recession, especially in non‐local elections. In addition, the propensity to vote increases with the size of the negative price shock. There is some evidence that variation at the neighborhood level matters more than voter‐level heterogeneity. The positive voting response is most profound in predominantly Black neighborhoods, and, to a lesser extent, in predominantly Hispanic and the lowest income neighborhoods. Increases in the propensity to vote are robust to models controlling for baseline economic vulnerabilities, such as localized unemployment, the weakness of the local housing market and exposure to sectors hit hardest by the Recession. The results indicate that dramatic and sudden changes in localized economic conditions can drive voting behavior, and in ways that are distinct from macroeconomic drivers. In addition, the housing asset channel appears to be a powerful one, which can induce significant voting responses at the national level apart from other localized economic drivers, especially among homeowners.

ANALYSIS OF SELECTED COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO THEIR ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY CLUSTER ANALYSIS K-MEANS METHOD

In this study, countries (Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Chile, Colombia, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Japan, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Mexico, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turiye, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Uzbekistan) were clustered based on their energy consumption for the years 2000 and 2021. In line with the objectives of the study, data on nuclear energy, coal consumption, oil consumption, natural gas consumption, hydropower consumption, and renewable energy consumption were used to represent energy consumption. The clustering analysis revealed differences between countries in the clusters formed between 2000 and 2021. The transition of countries such as Iran, the Netherlands, Mexico, and Luxembourg from Cluster 1 in 2000 to Cluster 2 in 2021 illustrates the complexity of changes in energy consumption patterns. Factors underlying these changes include changes in energy policies, economic conditions, international relations, and technological advances. Similarly, the transition of countries such as Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom from Cluster 2 in 2000 to Cluster 1 in 2021 can be attributed to various factors such as changes in energy policies, economic growth or stagnation, technological progress, shifts in international trade relations, and environmental considerations.

Analisis Penyerapan Anggaran Operasional dan Pemeliharaan Kantor di Pengadilan Negeri Semarang Kelas IA Khusus

This research aims to analyze the excess realization of operational and office maintenance at the Special Class IA Semarang District Court, with a focus on the causal factors, and how to overcome budget excesses. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with empirical studies at the Special Class IA Semarang District Court. The data collected was RKA-KL (Work Plan and Budget) and LRA (Budget Realization Report) then conducted in-depth interviews after which analysis was carried out to draw conclusions. The results of the research show that several factors that cause excess operational and office maintenance budgets are unrealistic or non-comprehensive budget planning, changes in economic conditions, inefficiencies in project or operational management, lack of control and supervision of expenditure and non-compliance in the implementation of budget policies or lack of coordination. . How to overcome operational budget excesses at the Special Class IA Semarang District Court by strengthening the budget planning process, implementing a strict budget monitoring and control system and increasing the capacity and competence of human resources involved in budget management.

Konsekuensi Penetapan Tarif Minimal Pelayanan Jasa Notaris sebagai Upaya Melindungi Hak Notaris Guna Kepastian dan Keadilan

Notaries have an important task in providing legal services to the public, particularly regarding the making of authentic deeds. The determination of minimum service rates for notaries by the Indonesian Notary Association (INI) is regulated in the Notary Code of Ethics with the aim of preventing unfair competition and protecting the rights of notaries. This research aims to analyze the form of the agreement on the determination of minimum service rates for notaries, evaluate the role of INI in determining these rates, and examine the legal consequences of violations of the minimum rate determination. This is a qualitative research with a single case study approach in Hulu Sungai Selatan Regency, South Kalimantan. Data was collected through in-depth interviews with notaries, clients, and other related parties, observations at notary offices, and studies of relevant documents. The determination of minimum rates by INI is carried out through a mechanism of study and evaluation by the INI Regional Administrators which is submitted to the INI Central Administrators to be determined nationally. This determination is a form of agreement that binds all INI members. Violations can be subject to sanctions from the INI organization as well as administrative sanctions from the Notary Supervisory Board. Obstacles in implementing the minimum rates include differences in operational costs between regions, resistance from notaries, weak monitoring and law enforcement, and a lack of flexibility in facing changing economic conditions. Efforts that can be made include determining varying rates, socialization and education, forming a supervisory body, a mechanism for rate adjustments, and maintaining a balance with consumer protection.

АКТУАЛЬНОСТЬ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ И СОДЕРЖАНИЕ ИССЛЕДОВАТЕЛЬСКОЙ КУЛЬТУРЫ БУДУЩЕГО ИНЖЕНЕРА

The innovative and economic development of the state directly depends on the availability of qualified engineering personnel capable of introducing new technologies. Countries with a solid and extensive base for the development of innovative engineering solutions today occupy leading positions in key industries, easily adapting to dynamic changes in global economic conditions. The formation of a sustainable research culture is an important aspect of the development of higher engineering education in the Russian Federation. In order to achieve the technological sovereignty of the country, the educational paradigm of higher engineering education is also changing, shifting its emphasis towards the development of research culture, technical creativity, and independence in carrying out research projects. Research culture is crucial for solving many other social problems and developing technologies to improve the quality of life in modern society. The culture of research and innovation is aimed at the acquisition by future engineers of the competencies, engineering and scientific thinking that are necessary to solve complex technical problems of the future. Understanding these provisions is of great importance for educating a new generation of engineers who are ready to make a significant contribution to the development of the state, science and society.

Multi-factor fuzzy sets decision system forecasting consumer insolvency risk

The objective of this study is to develop a multi-factor decision system predicting insolvency risk for natural persons with the use of fuzzy sets. Considering that the financial situation of households is affected by various endogenous and exogenous factors, the main assumption of this study is that the system for predicting financial difficulties should not be limited to the use of only a few financial variables concerning consumers, but also include variables describing the environment. The author proposes a system consisting of three different forecasting models that connect the macroeconomic and microeconomic environments. It monitors the economic situation of households by also identifying those environmental variables, which may directly, or indirectly, endanger the consumer, such as unemployment rate (job market situation), inflation and interest rates, exchange rates, or economic situation in the country (GDP growth rate, the dynamics of retail sales, etc.). Moreover, the created cause-and-effect tool is in the form of a flexible application that can be easily adapted to changing economic conditions. Another unique feature of the study is the proposed use of newly developed ratios in household finance, similar to that in financial ratio analysis, which is commonly used in corporate finance. The proposed ratios demonstrated high predictive abilities. The paper also identifies the predictive capabilities of selected macroeconomic variables from the perspective of their impact on the risk of consumer insolvency. The research relies on four samples consisting of a total of 2400 consumers from Taiwan and Poland. The author created three forecasting models separately for the South-East Asian and Central European regions, and two multi-factor systems, each consisting of 1260 decision rules. The findings clearly showed that fuzzy logic is a significantly more effective method compared to traditional models based on classical logic.

Building a Defence Manpower Planning Tool Using Survival Analysis Models

ABSTRACT A vibrant economy results in strong competition in the marketplace for highly skilled and versatile workforce. Therefore, the retention of such workers is an important issue for most organisations, including the Royal Navy, which is sensitive to economic pressures from the civilian economy. This paper considers early exits from the Royal Navy as the termination of an individual’s career in the naval force at any time before the termination of their contractual agreement with the organisation. The paper uses a survival analysis model to forecast/predict early exits from the Royal Navy and help build a defence manpower planning tool to manage retentions. At the micro-level, it provides two sets of predictions, the first on who is more likely to leave early, and the second on when that event is most likely to occur. At the aggregate level, the predictive model provides a management tool for performing stress testing in relation to potential changes in economic and labour market conditions and how the heterogeneous skilled workforce within the organisation is likely to respond to different changes.

The Economic Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on Labor Market and Stock Market

The pandemic has caused severe unrest and uncertainty in the labor market. Share prices have fallen sharply. However, the reasons behind it and the related policy effects still lack a unified explanation and summary. Therefore, the topic of this paper is the impact of the epidemic on the labor force and the stock market. The research method of this paper is as follows: firstly, the relevant data such as unemployment rate, hiring ratio and purchasing manager index are collected, and then the data are analyzed. The study found that the main reasons for the decline in labor demand may include business shutdowns, more cautious business investment and the psychological impact on workers. Fears of a potential recession, supply chain disruptions and uncertainty over the duration and severity of the outbreak have driven the rapid fall in share prices. The relevant policy recommendations further encourage local governments to use the surplus funds from unemployment insurance and other sources to support enterprises in maintaining employment stability. This paper will encourage the implementation of policies that delay or partially refund social security contributions. And strengthen the strategy of partially refunding unemployment insurance premiums, promoting local employment opportunities, and providing subsidies to ensure the overall stability of the employment situation. These policies are constantly evaluated and adjusted in light of changing economic conditions and employment trends to help maintain employment levels and support businesses during difficult times.

Korean Popular Culture as A ‘Lethal Weapon’: A Journey Toward Nation Branding of The Republic of Korea

(Korean Popular Culture as A ‘Lethal Weapon’: A Journey Towards Nation Branding of the Republic of Korea) The crisis that occurred in 1997 was experienced by the Republic of Korea as a sign that today the Republic of Korea has become a developed country. The government of the Republic of Korea took the initiative to borrow funds from the IMF for the first time in the history of Korea. The Republic of Korea's turnaround process was revived from adversity due to the impact of the crisis, which led to a day called "National Embarrassment Day". After the funds from the IMF are in the hands of the ROK government, the next duty is to use these funds wisely to restore the economic conditions. Based on the above facts, the purpose of this research was to analyze popular culture as a process of nation branding in South Korea. The method in this research was qualitative with a case study approach, the data obtained comes from in-depth interviews, non-participant observation and literature review. This research concludes that the crisis is an initial process for the Korean government's initiative to take bold and anti-mainstream steps. The funds obtained from the IMF were used to produce popular culture, which was then used as a tool by the government and expanded to restore the country's economic condition, the government's initiative at that time brought about major changes in the current economic condition of the Republic of Korea, and popular culture became the nation branding of the Republic of Korea.

Assessing the implications of imported electricity equipment in Indonesia: A comprehensive ECM approach for short-term and long-term analysis

This study aims to explore the implications of imported electrical equipment in Indonesia, analysing both short-term and long-term impacts using a quantitative approach. The research focuses on understanding how various economic factors, such as domestic production, international pricing, national income, and exchange rates, influence the country’s import dynamics in the electrical equipment sector. Employing an Error Correction Model (ECM) for regression analysis, the study utilises time-series data from 2007 to 2021 to delve into the complex interplay of these variables. The methodology involves a comprehensive analysis using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests to assess the stationarity of the data. This approach ensures the robustness of the ECM, which is employed to analyse the short-term and long-term effects of the identified variables on electrical equipment imports in Indonesia. The results reveal significant relationships between these economic factors and import levels. In the short term, imports are shown to be sensitive to changes in domestic economic conditions and international market prices, while in the long term, the country’s economic growth, reflected through GDP, emerges as a significant determinant. The findings suggest that Indonesia’s electrical equipment import policies must adapt highly to domestic and international economic changes. In the short term, a responsive approach is required to manage the immediate impacts of market fluctuations. The study highlights the importance of aligning import strategies with broader economic growth and environmental sustainability goals for long-term sustainability. Policymakers are advised to focus on enhancing domestic production capabilities, reducing import dependency, and ensuring that environmental considerations are integral to import policies. This study contributes to understanding import dynamics in a developing country context, offering valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders in shaping strategies for economic growth and sustainability in the electrical equipment sector. The findings underscore the need for a balanced, data-driven approach to managing imports, aligning short-term responses with long-term strategic objectives for Indonesia’s ongoing development and industrial advancement.

Effect of Rural-to-Urban Migration on Family Dynamics in Mexico

Purpose: The aim of the study was to analyze the effect of rural-to-urban migration on family dynamics in Mexico. Methodology: This study adopted a desk methodology. A desk study research design is commonly known as secondary data collection. This is basically collecting data from existing resources preferably because of its low cost advantage as compared to a field research. Our current study looked into already published studies and reports as the data was easily accessed through online journals and libraries. Findings: Rural - urban migration in Mexico has significantly impacted family dynamics, leading to changes in family structure, economic conditions, and social relationships. Migrants often shift from extended family networks to more nuclear family setups, which can alter traditional family roles and support systems. While migration typically improves economic opportunities and educational access, it also introduces challenges such as emotional stress from separation, difficulties in maintaining family ties, and adapting to urban cultural norms. Unique Contribution to Theory, Practice and Policy: Family systems theory, ecological systems theory & social exchange theory may be used to anchor future studies on analyze the effect of rural-to-urban migration on family dynamics in Mexico. Practitioners should develop and implement targeted support programs that address the specific needs of migrant families, such as counseling services, role-specific training, and digital communication tools. Policymakers should create inclusive urban policies that address the challenges faced by migrant families, such as housing affordability, access to education, and social services.

A Financial Analysis and Valuation of Home Depot

This paper presents a detailed financial analysis and market evaluation of major players in the home improvement industryHome Depot, Lowe's, Wayfair, and Floor & Decor Holdings. It assesses these companies based on their liquidity, solvency, and profitability to provide investors with actionable insights into their financial health and market position. The analysis reveals that Wayfair, despite its robust short-term liquidity, faces challenges with profitability. Home Depot and Lowe's both demonstrate strong financial stability with efficient operations that translate sales into profit effectively, though Lowe's exhibits some concerns related to its debt levels. Floor & Decor shows impressive growth but must improve its operational efficiency to enhance profitability. Additionally, the study explores industry trends impacting these businesses, including changes in consumer preferences and economic conditions affecting spending on home improvements. It also examines the companies' responses to these trends, such as adapting their business models and strategies to sustain growth and competitiveness. The paper concludes with investment considerations, highlighting Wayfair as a potentially high-reward but risky investment due to its growth prospects and operational challenges. Home Depot remains a relatively safe bet with stable financial returns, while Lowe's and Floor & Decor might require cautious evaluation due to their financial and market positions. This comprehensive analysis serves as a crucial tool for investors aiming to navigate the complexities of the home improvement sector and make informed decisions.

Economically optimized forage utilization choices in drylands for adapting to economic, ecological, and climate stress

Improving the economic performance of range forage in drylands internationally faces challenges from economic, ecological, and climate stress. Stakeholders in these drylands wish to protect range forage ecosystems while assuring economic viability of ranching. Despite several recent research achievements, little work to date has integrated relationships among precipitation, grazing pressure, animal performance, and forage production to protect ranching incomes faced with economic, ecological, and climate stress in dryland areas. This work addresses that gap by developing an empirical mathematical programming model for optimizing economic performance of livestock grazing on range forage ecosystems that adapt to several stressors. Its unique contribution is to formulate and apply a ranch income optimization model calibrated using positive mathematical programming. The model replicates observed economic, forage, and climate conditions while accounting for interacting relations among stocking rates, forage conditions, grazing pressure, animal performance, and ranch economic productivity. Results show ranch incomes ranging from about $5 to $88 per acre and marginal values of forage ranging from $0.01 to $0.12 per pound of forage, depending on economic, ecological, and climate conditions. Results reveal how all these stressors affect economically optimized choices of grazing levels, ranch income, and economic values of forage for a range of six biomes seen in the US west. Results help livestock ranchers to adjust stocking and forage choices as well as farm policymakers who seek flexible government programs to adapt to changes in economic, ecological, and climate conditions. The work's importance comes from applicability to forage management problems in dry regions internationally.

Homemade 3D-Printed Affordable and Practical Alternative Videolaryngoscope: First Step

Objective: Changing economic conditions make it difficult for clinics to access the medical devices they need. Videolaryngoscope is one of the devices needed in many units such as operating rooms, intensive care and emergency services. Our study aims to design a low-cost videolaryngoscope (VL) using three-dimensional printing technology and offer clinics a cost-effective alternative to traditional VLs. Materials and Methods: Initially, three-dimensional images were obtained from the website www.thingeverse.com to form the basis of the videolaryngoscope blade. The Ultimaker Cura 4.0 program (Ultimaker B.V. Netherlands, Utrecht) was used to create three-dimensional drawings of the handle and blade prints. This drawing was produced on a 3D printer using polylactic acid as raw material. Finally, the wireless camera with 1080p HD resolution was positioned on the handle and blade. 3DPVL was tested on an intubation mannequin by a group of 30 anesthesiologists, each with at least 4 years of experience. The intubation times of the participants and their satisfaction with this process were recorded. Results: In the study, the intubation times performed by 30 anesthesiologists on a mannequin were recorded. It was determined that the average intubation time for 3DPVL was 24.3 seconds. 90% of participants rated the experience as good or excellent. Similarly, satisfaction levels were rated as good or excellent by 60% of participants. Conclusion: The affordable and practical of production associated with 3DPVL make it a potentially viable alternative to traditional VLs for clinicians. In the second step, a case series focusing on easy airways is planned regarding our device. In later steps, randomized controlled studies are planned between our device and traditional VL in easy and difficult airways.

Model-based analysis to identify the impact of factors affecting electricity gaps during COVID-19: A case study in Germany

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has precipitated drastic changes in economic and lifestyle conditions, significantly altering residual electricity demand behavior. This alteration has expanded the demand gap between actual and forecasted electricity usage based on pre-pandemic data, highlighting a critical global issue. Many studies in the pandemic have explored the features of this widening gap, which is impacted by major social events like fast virus spread and lockdowns. However, the influence of factors like economic shifts and lifestyle changes on this demand remains largely unexplored, primarily due to the pandemic's significant effects in these areas. Understanding the essential factors affecting the demand gap is crucial for stakeholders in the electricity sector to develop effective strategies. This study examines the hourly electricity consumption and related factors during the specified period. We present a method combining time-series forecasting and sparse modeling. This helps identify critical factors affecting the electricity demand gap during the pandemic, highlighting the most crucial variables. Utilizing this method, we identify the variables that have undergone significant changes during the pandemic and evaluate their effects on the electricity demand gap. The effectiveness is proven by applying it to the dataset collected in German.

Establishing an Empirical link between Financial Development, CO2 Emissions, Tourist Arrivals and Economic Growth: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

The study is an attempt to see the impact of changes in environmental, economic, trading, and financial conditions on tourist arrivals of 123 countries from Europe, America, Asia and Africa. The countries were distributed in seven distinct regions on the four continents. In order to perform an effective empirical analysis, panel data from these countries was obtained from World Development Indicators from 1999 to 2018. The results of panel cointegration revealed the presence of a long-run relationship between tourist arrivals and the explanatory variables included in the model. Environmental conditions were found to adversely affect tourist arrivals with rising CO2 emissions, whereas improvements in financial development contributed towards increased tourist arrivals. The results of the study encouraged the implication of eco-friendly policies and financial development for tourism promotion in selected 123 countries from seven regions.