Building a Defence Manpower Planning Tool Using Survival Analysis Models

Abstract

ABSTRACT A vibrant economy results in strong competition in the marketplace for highly skilled and versatile workforce. Therefore, the retention of such workers is an important issue for most organisations, including the Royal Navy, which is sensitive to economic pressures from the civilian economy. This paper considers early exits from the Royal Navy as the termination of an individual’s career in the naval force at any time before the termination of their contractual agreement with the organisation. The paper uses a survival analysis model to forecast/predict early exits from the Royal Navy and help build a defence manpower planning tool to manage retentions. At the micro-level, it provides two sets of predictions, the first on who is more likely to leave early, and the second on when that event is most likely to occur. At the aggregate level, the predictive model provides a management tool for performing stress testing in relation to potential changes in economic and labour market conditions and how the heterogeneous skilled workforce within the organisation is likely to respond to different changes.