Dividend Changes Research Articles

Dividend Policy, Share Price and Future Profitability: Case of Commercial Banks in Nepal

<p>The study analyzes the impact of dividend policy on share price and future profitability of commercial banks in Nepal. Using panel secondary data of 13 commercial banks from year 2001 to 2014, correlation and regression analysis are applied for the study. The impact of dividend policy on share price is analysed first and the findings of initial analysis suggests that dividend yield and retention ratio have significant negative impact, whereas earning per share has significant positive impact on share price. The study, thus, supports the dividend relevance in Nepalese capital market, and it is further extended to analyze whether dividend changes carried any special information influencing future profitability of commercial banks in two subsequent year of dividend declaration. The conclusion from the analysis indicates that the current year dividend change has significant impact on current year earning changes. For subsequent years, the impact of dividend change is insignificant. Thus, dividend change does not carry information regarding changes in earning in subsequent years of dividend declaration and does not support signalling hypothesis in Nepalese capital market.</p><p>Journal of Business and Social Sciences Research, Vol. 1, Issue 1, pp. 89-110</p>

Institutional perspectives of dividend policy in India

PurposeThis study aims to examine dividend policy from the perspective of institutional investors in India. It focuses on the level of importance these investors attach to the dividend policy of their investee firms, the level of influence they exercise in shaping such firms’ dividend policies and their reactions to changes in dividends. This study also reports how institutional investors view various explanations for paying dividends.Design/methodology/approachA mail survey provides a profile of respondents and their firms, as well as responses to 29 closed-ended questions involving various explanations for paying dividends and 22 closed-ended questions on various dividend issues.FindingsThe evidence shows that Indian institutional investors attach substantial importance to dividend policy and prefer high dividend payments. Their reactions to dividend changes are asymmetric. Taxes are a major driver for why they seek dividends, whereas liquidity needs to play little role in shaping their preferences. The two most commonly used methods of active monitoring are selling shares and communicating concerns to investee companies.Research limitations/implicationsThe number of responses limits the ability to test for statistically significant differences between the various competing hypotheses.Practical implicationsThe findings support multiple explanations for paying cash dividends and provide new evidence supporting the positive relation between inflation and dividend payments.Originality/valueThis study provides the first survey evidence on the views of institutional investors on dividend policy in India.

Stock Market Reactions to Dividend Announcements: Empirical Evidence From the Singapore Stock Market

The present study investigates the 50 randomly selected companies from Singapore Stock Exchange to assess the impact of the dividend initiation announcement and omission announcement on the share prices of the companies under study. The study has analyzed the impact of dividend initiations announcement on the size of firms by dividing the firms into small and big categories. Further, the relationship between changes in dividend and company’s future earnings is also analyzed. The study finds that the dividend initiation announcement’s impact on the share prices of Singapore companies is trivial and uncertain.

The impact of dividend announcements on share price and trading volume

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the stock market response to dividend announcements in high growth emerging markets of Gulf countries.Design/methodology/approachThe sample includes 1,092 dividend announcements from 299 listed firms over the period 2010-2015.FindingsIn the environment where there is an absence of capital gain and income tax, the authors find some evidence for the stock price reaction that partly supports the signaling hypothesis. The findings show that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) market is inefficient because of the leakage information before the announcement in bad news, and the delay of share price adjustment in good news. In addition, the authors report significant trading volume (TV) reaction in all the three announcements clusters, where dividends increase, decrease, and are constant, lending support to the hypothesis that the dividend change announcements have an impact on the TV response due to different investors’ preferences.Originality/valueThis is the first empirical paper on market reaction in share price and TV around dividend announcement using data for the majority of GCC countries.

Sygnalizacja wyników finansowych w polityce dywidendowej na rynku NewConnect

The aim of the paper was to give evidence whether changes of dividends could be considered as signals forecasting changes in future financial results. The sample consists of 42 companies listed on the NewConnect market in the years 2007–2016, paying regular dividends for at least 3 years. Using linear regression models, we show that dividend changes have a weak but positive effect on revenues changes, but they are insignificant when explaining changes in operating performance and net income. The paper fills a gap in empirical research on the Polish stock market, and especially the signalling function of dividends on NewConnect, which is characterised by a high degree of information asymmetry, has been examined for the first time.

Hubungan Perubahan Dividen dengan Perubahan Laba Perusahaan Terdaftar di BEI

This research aims to analyze the relation between dividend changes with earnings changes of the employee listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) also to determine whether the dividend changes could predict the earnings changes. This study conducts two tests with two different research periods: during 2004 – 2006 and 2006 – 2008. The result of the research proves that dividend changes has a relationship with company’s earnings changes in the future. From the test with two different research periods, shows that there is a negative correlation between dividend changes with earnings changes a year after dividend changes. This research also finds that dividend changes could predict earnings changes one year after dividend changes. Keywords: dividend changes, earnings changes, Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI)  https://doi.org/10.21632/saki.1.1.72-93

Firm Performance and Earnings Management Around Dividend Change Announcements

Using a sample of dividend-paying firms, we show that much of the variation in accruals and real activities can be explained by firms' different performance trajectories. High (low) performance firms spend more (less) on SGA firms that appear to manage earnings to a greater extent change their dividends by larger amounts; and standard earnings management metrics are unimportant in explaining changes in firm value around dividend change announcements. These results are consistent with the notion that applying standard earnings management metrics without taking performance into account can result in researchers mistaking managers' efforts to increase firm value by reporting smoother streams of earnings and dividends over time with evidence of earnings manipulation.

How Moroccan institutional investors view dividend policy

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine how Moroccan institutional investors view dividend policy. It discusses the importance these investors attach to the dividend policy of their investee firms, how much influence they exercise in shaping investee firms’ dividend policies, their reactions to changes in dividends, and their views on various explanations for paying dividends. Design/methodology/approach A mail survey provides a respondent and firm profile and responses to 28 questions involving various explanations for paying dividends and 30 questions on different dividend issues. Findings Institutional investors attach substantial importance to dividend policy and prefer high dividend payments. Although liquidity needs are a major driver, taxes play little role in shaping dividend preferences. Respondents agree with multiple explanations for paying dividends giving the strongest support to catering, bird-in-the-hand, life cycle, signaling, and agency theories. Research limitations/implications Despite a high response rate, the number of respondents limits partitioning the sample and testing for significant differences between different groups. Practical implications The lack of communication between Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) listed firms and institutional investors may depress stock prices and increase volatility. The results suggest agency problems and a weak governance environment at the CSE. Originality/value This study documents the importance that institutional investors place on dividend policy, their reactions to changes in their investees’ dividend policy, and the methods used to influence these firms. It extends previous research by reporting the level of support Moroccan institutional investors give to various explanations for paying dividends.

The Information Content of Dividends: Safer Profits, Not Higher Profits

Contrary to the central prediction of signaling models, changes in profits do not empirically follow changes in dividends. We show both theoretically and empirically that dividends signal safer, rather than higher, future profits. Using the Campbell (1991) decomposition, we are able to estimate expected cash flows from data on stock returns. Consistent with our model’s predictions, cash-flow volatility changes in the opposite direction from that of dividend changes and larger changes in volatility come with larger announcement returns. We find similar results for share repurchases. Crucially, the data supports the prediction - unique to our model - that the cost of the signal is foregone investment opportunities. We conclude that payout policy conveys information about future cash flow volatility. Our methodology can be applied more generally to overcoming empirical problems in testing theories of corporate financing.

The Announcement Effect of Cash Dividend Changes on Share Prices: Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the announcement effect of cash dividend changes on share prices listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE). Standard event study methodology is used to investigate the effect of an event window of [Formula: see text]3 to [Formula: see text]3 days relative to dividend announcement date. Cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) have also been measured for a 41-day window around announcement date. This study finds that shareholders earn only normal return on the announcement of dividend increases and no changes. However, a significant positive abnormal return (AR) is observed in the preannouncement period for a dividend increase which indicates some kind of information leakage before the announcement is actually made. The announcement of dividend decrease results in a significant negative AR on the announcement day and persists even 20 days after the announcement. Significant ARs following dividend decrease announcement reveal DSE is not a semi-strong form of efficient market.

Are all dividends created equal? Australian evidence using dividend‐increase track records

AbstractRecent research indicates that the signal sent by a dividend change is more powerful for longer histories of unchanged dividends. We study the dividend history of Australian firms to investigate whether the signalling power of a dividend increase varies with the frequency of repetition. We find that the first three consecutive dividend increases are associated with significantly positive abnormal returns, and subsequent increases are generally not significant, even after controlling for the interaction effect with the simultaneously announced earnings information. Our results support the hypothesis that repeating a dividend increase eventually leads to a reputation for further increases and weakens the value of subsequent increases as a means of disseminating management's private information.

Heaping on Dividends: The Role of Dividend Size and Information Uncertainty

In this paper we contribute to a line of literature that examines behavioral biases that impact important corporate decisions. Our paper builds on prior articles that examine heaping or rounding of EPS forecasts. Herrmann and Thomas (2005), Bamber, Hui and Yeung (2010) and Dechow and You (2012) observe that firm managers and analysts systematically round EPS forecasts. They also find more rounding for EPS forecasts with larger magnitude, and when management or analysts face higher levels of information uncertainty. In this study we examine whether dividend policy is also affected by rounding and the heaping heuristic. The previous literature that examines heaping related to corporate earnings focuses on heaping in earnings forecasts, however our study focuses on heaping in actual distributed dividends that directly impact key firm characteristics such as firm capital structure, investor returns and overall firm performance. From 1926 through 2015 we report 51.40% of dividends are heaped. In the earlier years, dividends are almost always heaped, but heaping declines through time. In some years 100% of quarterly dividends are heaped. We find heaping is significantly related to dividend size, and the level of information uncertainty faced by firm management. Of the uncertainty metrics, inverted firm size has the strongest relation with the likelihood of heaping. We also observe that heaped dividends are altered less frequently, and when there is a dividend change to a previously heaped dividend it is more often an increase or decrease to another heaped amount.

Corporate Payout Policy and Credit Risk: Evidence from CDS Markets

We examine whether and how payout policy affects credit risk using evidence from the credit default swap (CDS) market. CDS spreads increase substantially in response to announcements of dividend cuts, especially during recessions and among firms experiencing financial distress. CDS spreads also react more strongly to permanent and less anticipated dividend cuts. The size of CDS reaction is more pronounced for financial firms, which are inherently more opaque. In contrast, CDS spreads react weakly to dividend raises and share repurchases. The results show that the information effect of dividend changes dominates the wealth transfer effect.

Informed Options Trading Prior to Dividend Change Announcements

AbstractThis paper investigates the information content of options trading prior to dividend change announcements. I find a positive (negative) relation between pre‐announcement abnormal implied volatility (IV) spread (abnormal IV skew) and cumulative abnormal stock returns around dividend change announcements. The predictive power of informed options trading is stronger for announcements of dividend reduction and when the options market is more liquid relative to the stock market and weaker when information has already been incorporated in the stock market. The predictability of informed options trading is robust to a placebo test and alternative measures of informed options trading. Overall results suggest that informed options trading predicts dividend change announcement returns.

Market reactions to dividends announcements and payouts. Empirical evidence from the Warsaw Stock Exchange

The main goal of this paper is the empirical examination of the Polish stock market reactions to dividend announcements and dividend payouts made by the companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE). The research sample comprises 56 companies (WIG index constituents) that announced dividend payments and completed the payout during 2013. In the analysis, event study methodology is employed including either calculating abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns around the event day or testing their statistical significance using parametric and nonparametric tests. The average cross-sectional abnormal return calculated for the entire sample is found to be significant on the dividend announcement day (t = 0, 0.86%) and on one day after (t = 1, 0.59%) at the 1% and 10% significance levels, respectively. The outcomes of the analysis conducted within the three distinguished subsamples are rather more diverse. In the subgroup of the first announced dividends (or dividends announced after a minimum one-year break), the significant average abnormal return is found on day t = 1 (0.90%, 5% significance level), whereas in the case of the dividend decreases subsample, the significant average abnormal returns (at the 10% significance level) occur on days t = −4 (-1.44%) and t = 2 (-1.15%). The average abnormal return calculated within the subsample of dividend increases turns out to be positive and significant on day t = 1 (1.03%, 10% significance level). The results obtained for the average cumulative abnormal returns corroborate the findings reached for the average cross-sectional abnormal returns in the case of the first dividend and dividend increase subsamples. However, the average cross-sectional abnormal returns calculated within the eleven-day-long event window around the dividend payment day turn out to be statistically insignificant. The obtained results provide evidence that the Polish stock market reaction to dividend announcements is positive and immediate. However, the market does not significantly react to dividend payouts, which may lead to the conclusion that the WSE directly incorporates news on dividends into stock prices. Moreover, the reaction of the market for dividend announcements is consistent with the sign of the dividend change: dividend-increase (-decrease) announcements are interpreted as a positive (negative) signal by the investors. Such results support both the informational content of the dividend hypothesis and the dividend signaling hypothesis. Considering that the observed abnormal market behavior disappears within two days at most after the announcement date, the results of the study can be useful for financial practitioners only with regard to short-term investment decisions.

Determinants of Cumulative Abnormal Return: A Dynamic Approach

There is a large body of finance literature that has tested and validated dividend policy decisions mainly focused on the effect of the dividend announcement and the impact it has on the post announcement drift. But very few studies have tested the determinants of the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) surrounding the dividend announcement and to find the role of economic adversity in explaining the change in CAR. The present study investigates the role of change in dividend under both adverse and favorable market conditions. Using the data of S&P CNX 500 companies the study examines the role of dividend yield and EPS in explaining cumulative abnormal return over a period of seven years. Using VAR methodology the study examined the determinants of CAR surrounding the dividend announcement and the dynamic relationship between the variables. The results of the study showed that during adversity, dividend yield is the major factor explaining CAR. Variables like EPS, volume and price explain the CAR when there is no economic adversity. The study found that there is a significant relationship between abnormal return and its determinants.

Yet more on a stochastic economic model: Part 4: a model for share earnings, dividends, and prices

AbstractIn this paper, we develop an extension to the Wilkie model, introducing share earnings and cover (earnings/dividends) as new variables, and deriving share dividends from them. Earnings are available from April 1962, but only for the Non-Financial index, and for the All-Share one only from 1992. We construct a Composite Earnings Index from these series. We then find a suitable annual time series model for changes in earnings, and then for cover, which is mean-reverting. We compare this new model with the original model, in which changes in dividends were modelled directly. We also investigate monthly data to give parameters for stochastic interpolation. We observe an unusual change in earnings over 2015–2016, consider the implications of this and show specimen simulations.

Option Implied Dividends

This is the first paper to calculate and analyze option-implied dividends for individual US companies, while accounting for the early exercise premium. These firm-level implied dividends show substantial variation relative to actual dividends over time as well as in the cross-section. Implied dividends predict actual dividends, particularly upward dividend changes. Stock prices correlate strongly with changes in implied dividends, so much so that price changes are partly reversed subsequently. An announcement to cut dividends causes a stock's price to drop by 2.6% on average, but if it is correctly predicted by implied dividends the response is negligible.

How Important are Dividend Signals in Assessing Earnings Persistence?

We build and test a Bayesian model that shows how investors revise their earnings persistence expectations after dividend announcements. When dividend changes confirm preceding earnings changes, our model predicts inverse u-shaped investor revisions conditional on the prior expectations for noisy dividend signals. As the dividend signal becomes more informative our model predicts that investor revisions will become more skewed converging to a monotonically decreasing relation for perfectly informative dividend signals. When dividend changes contradict preceding earnings changes, our model predicts u-shaped investor revisions. In empirical tests, we find results generally consistent with our model predictions.

The effect of financial reporting quality on corporate dividend policy

This study examines how financial reporting quality affects corporate dividend policy. We find that higher quality reporting is associated with higher dividends. This positive association is more pronounced among firms with more severe free cash flow problems and among firms with higher ownership by monitoring-type institutional investors. Further analysis of the relation between reporting quality and under−/over-payment of dividends suggests that reporting quality largely mitigates underpayment of dividends. Additionally, both a granger causality test and a difference-in-difference analysis of dividend changes around a quasi-exogenous reporting event yield evidence consistent with the direction of causality going from financial reporting to dividends. Overall, these findings are consistent with financial reporting quality acting as a governance mechanism that induces managers to pay dividends by disciplining free cash flow problems. Our findings support the view that dividends are the result of enhanced monitoring (Jensen 1986; La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer, and Vishny 2000).